INDUS RIVER SYSTEM AUTHORITY S.N: 01 (IRSA) “Inter Provincial Water Distribution and the Need for Reservoirs” Rao Irshad Ali Khan Member IRSA Punjab December 19, 2014 Presentation to LEAD Pakistan’s F-7 Markaz, Islamabad WATER SCENARIO, 1947 - 1960 S.N: 02 1. At Independence, river inflow in Pakistan was 167 MAF (Western Rivers : Indus, Jhelum & Chenab + Eastern Rivers :Ravi, Sutlej & Beas) 2. Total irrigated land in Pakistan was 26 million acres against potential irrigable land of 77.1 million acres. 3. In 1947, partition/territorial division took place. All upstream control structures on Ravi, Beas and Sutlej fell in Indian Territory. Pakistan became a lower riparian. 4. In 1948, water flowing to Pakistan from Eastern rivers was stopped. 5. Twelve years of dispute settlement under the aegis of World Bank. 6. Initial effort was for co-operative use. Ultimately division of waters 7. For Pakistan: Indus, Jhelum and Chenab. For India: Ravi, Sutlej and Beas. Transfer of Water from Western to Eastern rivers was necessitated. 3 The Water Agreements Indus Waters Treaty 1960 Water Apportionment Accord 1991 S.N: 03 Inter-provincial Water Dispute S.N: 04 The Inter-provincial dispute on Water Distribution was initiated during the construction of two mega Irrigation Projects i.e. Sutlej Valley Canal Project Sukkur Barrage 1932 1935 Committees / commissions S.N: 05 1937 Anderson Committee 1945 Rau Commission 1968 Akhtar Hussain Committee 1970 Fazal-e-Akbar Committee 1976 Indus Waters Commission (Anwar-ul-Haq Commission) 1983 Haleem Commission 1991 Water Accord Irrigation Network of Pakistan S.N: 06 Major Storage Reservoirs (No.) = 3 Storage Capacity (MAF) = 14.2 Barrages (No.) = 19 Inter-River Link Canals (No.) = 12 Canal Commands (No.) = 52 Total length of Irrigation Canals = 38,000 Miles Canal withdrawals capacity = 290,000 Cs Watercourses (No.) = 107,000 Indus Basin Water Requirements S.N: 07 Province Main Canal Systems (No.) Command Area (M. Acres) Punjab 25 21.0 Sindh 15 12.8 KPK 10 0.73 Balochistan 2 0.97 Total 52 35.50 Indus Tarbela S.N: 08 Jhelum Mangla Kabul Chenab Ravi KPK CRBC Sutlej C-J Chashma T-P Balochistan Canals Legend Sindh Barrages Punjab Barrages Reservoirs Major Rivers Rim Stations: Indus @ Tarbela Kabul @ Nowshera Jhelum @ Mangla Chenab @ Marala 9 Water Account S.N: 09 Post Tarbela Average (1976.77 to 2013.14) (MAF) Western River 138.12 Eastern River 6.61 Total Western & Eastern River 144.73 Provincial Utilization 96.91 System Losses -17.93 * D/S Kotri 29.89 * Required D/S Kotri 8.6 MAF Western & Eastern River Post Tarbela (1976.77 to 2013.14) S.N: 10 (MAF) Rivers Indus @ Kalabagh Jhelum @ Mangla Chenab @ Marala Eastern Rivers Total Maximum 112.18 32.00 32.69 19.98 183.45 Minimum 66.81 11.85 17.85 0.30 99.05 Average 89.87 22.47 25.78 6.61 144.73 Comparison of Para 14 (b) vs Para 2 S.N: 11 (MAF) Province Para 14 (b) % Para 2 % Difference (4-2) % Increase 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Punjab 54.51 53.1 55.94 48.9 1.43 12 Sindh 43.53 42.4 48.76 42.6 5.23 45 Balochistan 1.63 1.6 3.87 3.4 2.24 19 KPK 3.06 3.0 5.78 5.1 2.72 24 Total 102.73 100 114.35 100 11.62 100 Comparison of Para 14 (b), 2 & 4 S.N: 12 (Percentages) Province Para 14 (b) Para 2 Para 4 1 2 3 4 Punjab 53.1 48.9 37 Sindh 42.4 42.6 37 Balochistan 1.6 3.4 12 KPK 3.0 5.1 14 Total 100.0 100.0 100 Present Distribution Mechanism of IRSA S.N: 13 (THREE TIER FORMULA SINCE 2003) Scenario I –Water Availability < Actual Average System Uses 77-82 –Distributed as per 14 (b) of the WAA 1991 Scenario II –Water Availability > Actual Average System Uses 77-82 but < Para 2 of WAA 1991 –Actual Average System Uses are protected –Balance available as per Para 2 i.e. 10-daily approved by CCI Scenario III –Water Availability > Para 2 of WAA 1991 –Para 2 i.e. 10-daily approved by CCI are protected –Balance as per Para 4 of the WAA 1991 Note: KPK & Balochistan are exempted from shortages 14 Para 6 S.N: 14 The need for storages, wherever feasible on the Indus and other rivers was admitted and recognised by the participants for planned future agricultural development. 15 Reservoir Sedimentation Reservoir Tarbela Mangla Chashma Total Storage Mangla Raising 2013 Total S.N: 15 Designed Present Sedimentation Level 1550.00 1550.00 MAF % Live Storage 9.68 6.45 -3.23 -33 Level 1202.00 1202.00 Live Storage 5.34 4.50 -0.84 -16 Level 649.00 649.00 Live Storage 0.72 0.28 -0.44 -61 15.74 11.23 -4.51 -29% 1242.00 2.90 0.0 0.0 14.13 -4.51 -24 Live 1242.00 Storage 2.90 18.64 AVERAGE ANNUAL FLOW AND STORAGE CAPACITY OF DAMS OF SOME MAJOR RIVER BASINS S.N: 16 Sr. # River Basin Average Annual flow (MAF) No. of Dams Storage Capacity (MAF) % age Storage 1 Colorado 12 3 59.62 497 2 Nile 47 1 132 281 3 Sutlej Bias India (Total) 32 750 5 4,636 11.32 245 35 33 4 Yellow River 345 7 68.95 20 5 Columbia 179 3 34 19 6 Indus & others Rivers 145 3 14.20 10 7 World 20,000 - 8,000 40 Source: Wapda Provincial Allocations with Additional Storage S.N: 17 (MAF) Province Pre Mangla 1960-66 Pre Tarbela 1967-76 Post Tarbela 1977-82 Punjab 48.35 49.86 54.51 55.94 61.49 Sindh *36.12 40.67 43.53 48.76 54.31 **KPK 1.67 2.43 3.06 5.78 7.88 Balochistan - 0.49 1.63 3.87 5.67 Total 86.14 93.45 102.73 114.35 129.35 * Includes Balochistan Post Post Bhasha & Kalabagh Akhori ** Excluding Un-gauged Civil Canals Recommended Escapage below Kotri S.N: 18 Kharif Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Total Cfs 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 MAF >=0.3 >=0.3 >=0.3 >=0.3 >=0.3 >=0.3 1.8 +**) Total Rabi *) Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar cfs 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 5000 MAF 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 1.8 Annual 3.6 +**) *) In a dry year the amount can be proportionally reduced in relation to the reductions in irrigation water supply **) A total volume of 25 MAF in any 5 years period (an annual equivalent of 5 MAF) to be released in a concentrated way as flood flow (Kharif period), to be adjusted according to the ruling storage in the reservoirs and the volume discharged in the four previous years. ISSUES 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. S.N: 19 22 MAF being wasted D/S Kotri Escapages D/S Kotri Operation of Link Canals Mangla Reservoir Filling KPK’s objection on construction of Kalabagh Dam a) Nowshera will be drowned b) Swabi will be water logged S.N: 20 Rim Station Inflows Post TBD Average (1976 to 2013) Tarbela Kabul 280.0 260.0 240.0 220.0 200.0 (* 1000 cs) 180.0 160.0 140.0 120.0 100.0 80.0 60.0 40.0 20.0 0.0 Month Mangla Marala DRAINAGE LEVELS IN KABUL VALLEY WITH KALABAGH S.N: 21 1010 1000 LEVEL IN FEET 990 970 970 955 950 958 960 940 930 RESERVOIR RETENATION EL. 915 910 150 140 130 120 110 100 90 80 DISTANCE U/S DAM SITE IN MILES 23