SAN MATEO COUNTY
CCA TECHNICAL STUDY:
OVERVIEW
Community Choice Energy Advisory Committee
June 25th,2015
Key Elements of the Technical Study
scenarios addressing
renewable and carbon free
content as well as other
program assumptions (i.e.,
energy efficiency,)
Load Analysis
Supply Portfolio
Analysis
program financial results
are projected with an
emphasis on cash flows,
revenues, power costs, net
surplus, and debt structure
impacts on indirect and
direct job creation (i.e.,
local renewable energy
projects) are estimated
analytics start
with load data
and customer
composition
Rate Analysis
Pro Forma
Analysis
Economic Impact
Analysis
Technical Study
Report
revenue generated
through projected
energy sales (at
PG&E rates) and
discounted CCA
rates (assumes
that PG&E rate
structure is
maintained,
including identical
rate schedules for
CCA customers)
2
CCA Supply Scenarios
• Option 1: Baseline, minimum 35% renewable energy content (exceeds
33% legal minimum)
• Option 2: Minimum 50% renewable energy content
• Option 3: High scenario of 100% renewable energy content with
emphasis on use of local/regional generating resources
• PEA will consider variations in how renewable and non-renewable energy
can be obtained as well as related impacts to projected CCA operations:
• Location: in-state, in-county, out-of-state
• Fuel Source/Generating Technology: natural gas, hydro-electric, solar, wind,
geothermal, system purchases
• Portfolio Content Category/Bucket: bundled (Bucket 1), firmed and shaped (Bucket 2),
unbundled renewable energy certificates (Bucket 3)
• Power purchase agreement vs. direct investment
3
CCA Risk Assessment
• PEA will complete a full risk assessment for San Mateo County’s CCA
• Quantitative risk assessment: evaluated by modeling the financial
impacts associated with changes to key assumptions (e.g., power
prices, utility rates, etc.)
• Qualitative risk assessment: evaluated by determining potential
risks and mitigation strategies associated with the following areas:
o Implications related to CCA disbandment/failure
o Over- and under-procurement as well as scheduling
o Regulatory/legislative risks (i.e., evolving RPS requirements, GHG
reporting, capacity rules and costs; bonding requirements)
o Availability of desired supply and related market risks
o Communications/marketing and prospective political risks
4
Essential Program Decisions
• Retail product offerings (i.e., 50% and 100% renewable products)
o Renewable energy content target
o Composition of renewable energy portfolio (different categories and technologies)
• Targeted GHG-free emissions content
• Use of new vs. existing generating sources
• Local renewable project development
• Use of unspecified sources for conventional power supply
• Complementary programs (feed-in-tariff, net energy metering, demand
reduction programs, energy efficiency, etc.)
• Financial targets (reserves, rate stabilization fund, debt service, etc.)
• Phasing of customer enrollments
• Credit structure (i.e., lockbox, credit facility, County funding, etc.)
5
Technical Study Timeline
• Currently compiling modeling assumptions
• Study to be completed within 60-days customer data receipt (CCA
INFO tariff, item #16 – this data will provide monthly, customerspecific data for all prospective CCA customers)
• Draft “Fully Outsourced Business Model” assessment has been
completed (and will be included within the Technical Study Report)
• Assessment focused on recently promoted CCA business model, which
outsources all substantive responsibilities typically undertaken by California’s
operating CCAs, including resource planning and procurement, compliance
reporting, ratesetting, etc.
• Related documents, including proposed services agreement, feasibility report
and other items, were reviewed as part of this assessment
• Draft assessment was circulated for “internal” review
• Comments were provided and incorporated in final draft document
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