Weapons of Social Influence
Cyber, Social Media, and the Future of
Media Operations
(C) 2013 by LTC U.M. Janßen, NSO/JOPS
Outline
• What is Cyber Warfare?
• The changing character of Media
Operations
• What is Social Media?
• Relevance in Behavioural Conflict
• Conclusion:
– What’s in it for the Military?
– The future of Media Operations
What is Cyber?
Cyber Space
Cyber War
Cyber Terrorism
Cyber Security
Cyber Power
Cyber Law
Cyber – Hype???
Cyber Space
• the electronic medium of computer networks, in which
online communication takes place.
• the dynamic realization of electromagnetic energy
through the application of communication and control
technology.
• a global domain that allows an interdependent network
of information technology infrastructures (ITI),
telecommunications networks, computer processing
systems, integrated sensors, system control networks,
embedded processors and controllers common to
global control and communications across the electromagnetic environment.
• a social experience, individuals can interact, exchange
ideas, share information, provide social support,
conduct business, direct actions, create artistic media,
play games, engage in political discussion, and so on …
(Wikipedia)
More…
• Cyber Warfare
– politically motivated hacking to conduct sabotage and
espionage.
– a form of information warfare.
– analogous to conventional warfare.
• Richard A. Clarke
– "actions by a nation-state to penetrate another nation's
computers or networks for the purposes of causing
damage or disruption.“
• The Economist
– "the fifth domain of warfare”
• William J. Lynn, US Deputy Secretary of Defense
2009-11
– stated that "as a doctrinal matter, the Pentagon has
formally recognized cyberspace as a new domain in
warfare . . . [which] has become just as critical to military
operations as land, sea, air, and space."
References
• NATO Policy & Doctrine on Cyber Warfare
– Not existing!
– Communication Security, Computer Security,
Information Security, … Lots of Secs
• Cooperative Center of Excellence for Cyber
Defense, Tallinn, EST
• NATO Communications and Information
Agency (NCIA), The Hague/Brussels
• NATO Computer Incident Response
Capability (NCIRC)
• Open source
• Own research
RUS / GEO Conflict 2008
Situation & Timelines
• 200,000 Internet
user (2006), 4% of
Pop
• Georgia relies upon
international
optical fibre cable
links
• Caucasus cable
system through
Russia, Ukraine and
Bulgaria
Varna -Hungary
Under Construction
Fall 08
• Limited Satellite
Connectivity
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•
•
•
•
•
•
19 Jul 08
7 Aug 08 (20:43)
8 Aug 08 (05:30)
8 Aug 08
8 Aug 08
9 Aug 08
15 Aug 08
• Fibre backbone
running form Poti to
Tbilisi
• Vulnerable to physical
disruption
– Distributed denial of service attacks
– Internet connectivity disrupted
– Russian troops enter Georgia
– Second wave of denial of service attacks
– Distribution of basic hacking tools
– Defacing of Georgian government web sites
– Spam campaign against Georgian president
Georgia Internet Disruption August 2008
Figure
Figure 12 -- Caucasus
Caucasus Net
Net routing
routing at
at
20.43
22.37 on
on 77 Aug
Aug 2008
2008
Defacing of gov’t web sites
• 9th Aug
– Ministry for Foreign
Affairs web site defaced
on 9th August
• Hacktivist
– “stopgeorgia.ru” website
– Spam Attacks - Botnet
• Effect
– Dominance of the
Information Environment
– Major influence effect on
Georgian population
start ping www.newsgeorgia.ru -t -l 1024
start ping www.apsny.ge -t -l 1024
start ping www.nukri.org -t -l 1024
start ping www.opentext.org.ge -t -l 1024
start ping www.messenger.com.ge -t -l 1024
start ping www.president.gov.ge -t -l 1024
start ping www.government.gov.ge -t -l 1024
start ping www.parliament.ge -t -l 1024
start ping nsc.gov.ge -t -l 1024
start ping www.constcourt.gov.ge -t -l 1024
start ping www.supremecourt.ge -t -l 1024
start ping www.cec.gov.ge -t -l 1024
start ping www.nbg.gov.ge -t -l 1024
start ping www.nplg.gov.ge -t -l 1024
start ping www.police.ge -t -l 1024
start ping www.mod.gov.ge -t -l 1024
start ping www.mes.gov.ge -t -l 1024
start ping www.mfa.gov.ge -t -l 1024
start ping www.iberiapac.ge -t -l 1024
start ping www.mof.ge -t -l 1024
Cyber Ops efficiency
An example: Egypt 2011
Actors in Cyber Space
Current threats - overview
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Caused by increased access
Disclosure of information
Corruption of information
Denial of service
Theft of resources
Loss of credit or reputation
Cyber Crime
New /
Spam
Social
Bulletproof Hosting
Malware
Media?
…?
What
is
Social
Media
Weapons of Social Influence
Social Media
• Social influence versus … what?
– What’s a weapon, social, influence, media?
– What is not socially influencing people?
• Social Media
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Why should I care?
The Social Media Landscape 2012
The myth of the power of Social Media
What’s in it for NATO and for the Military
• Strength, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats
• Requirements
Weapons of Social Influence
Social Media
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What’s a weapon?
What’s social?
What’s influence?
What’s media?
So what..?
The changing character
of Media Operations
• The War Correspondent
– One on many
– Delayed, newspaper / voice, still imagery
• The Embedded Journalist
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The trusted source
Control the uncontrollable
Live, moving imagery
The CNN-Effect
• Natochannel.tv
• Citizen Journalism and Social Media
– Many on many
Why should I care..?
Starting a Conversation
• Word of Mouth  World of Mouth
– Connectivity more important than
content
– Trust to people rather than to content
– Audience will verify ‘facts’
– Democratizing Communications
– Officials lie
– A power to consider
– New..?
There is more in it
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Public Relations
Customer Service
Loyalty-building
Interaction and Collaboration
Networking
Thought-Leadership
Customer Acquisition … making
friends
Social Media and the [US] Military
US DOD Social Media Website
http://www.defense.gov/RegisteredSites/SocialMediaSites.aspx
USAF Navigating the Social Network, Mar 2012
US Army Social Media Handbook, Jan 2011
NATO ACO Dir 95-3 Social Media, Dec 2009
ACO Dir 95-3 Social Media
• a means by which internal and external
communications and messaging can be
enhanced.
• a powerful means by which commanders can
outline their broad intent and promote the
concept of Mission Command.
• tools that have the potential to support
development of new business processes which
could provide enhanced organisational agility
while reducing bureaucracy and manpower
requirements.
for the Military
• The brutal simplicity of thought
– 6 principles for SUCCESs-ful messaging
• V.I.T.A.L. for success (by David Bailey MBE)
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Video
Images
Text
Audio
Links
Debbie Weil: Social Media 101
Link Analysis
Social Media Landscape
WIIFY
Most commonly used
HQ
IM Plan
Debbie Weil: Social Media 101
The grey side of Social
Media
• Information overload  IKM
• Non credible sources  INTEL
• Loosing control  COS/J3
– IM Plan
– OPSEC
• We must replace the delusion of
control by reality of influence.
• Sharing information is a responsibility
rather than a risk.
• Code of Conduct
What Social Media is NOT
• Magic or miracle
• Expensive … compared to costs of not
engaging in Social Media
• Difficult to learn
• A military capability
• Purely a Public Affairs tool
• Subject to education or individual
training in NATO
• Considered in comprehensive
operations planning
Social Media SWOT
Analysis
Strengths
Opportunities
Weaknesses
Threats
Options for the Military
• Operational relevance!
– Propaganda, information … evidence
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Active or passive?
Engage … and get feedback
Effective..?
Target Audience..?
Deception..?
Information gathering & exploitation
Social / Human Network Analysis
Sell / share own ideas
Requirements
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Research
DOTMLPFI*
Bravery, courage, engagement, and enthusiasm
Resources
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People
Time
Room / Infrastructure
$$$
• Trust & Empowerment
• Education & Training
* Doctrine, Organisation, Training, Materiel, Leadership Development. Personnel, Facilities, Interoperability.
Conclusion
• Sexy tool
– Nice to have rather than need to have
• Analysis and assessment required to figure
out operational relevance
• Effectiveness
– Challenging to measure
– Sufficient resources required
• Integrated full spectrum Media Operations
– Supporting behavioural change
– To inform is to influence (Joel Harding)
Weapons of Social Influence
Cyber, Social Media, and the Future of
Media Operations
(C) 2013 by LTC U.M. Janßen, NSO/JOPS – janssen.ulrich@natoschool.nato.int