BAESI workshop 6 December 2008 2. Petroleum 1 L.A. smog plus invisible GHGs Chief source: combustion of petroleum products 2 Petroleum has been used by humans for millennia, originally for fires and warfare. In the Middle East, oil fields were exploited for naptha, tar, and kerosene in the 8th to 12th centuries. These early users depended on seeps (like this modern one), where petroleum rises naturally because of subsurface pressure. Beverly Hillbillies theme 3 The demand for petroleum on the world market grew slowly, but started to take off in the 1800s. Whale oil was replaced by kerosene lamps starting around 1860. Coal was still the major fuel source in the world until about 1940, when petroleum passed it and became the most valuable commodity in the global marketplace. 4 Petroleum: a thick, flammable, yellow-to-black mixture of solid, liquid, and gaseous hydrocarbons that occurs naturally beneath the Earth's surface. Hydrocarbons: organic compounds consisting of H and C Solids (e.g. paraffin) are not abundant, but have many uses Liquids Crude oil Condensate Natural Gas Liquids (NGLs) Gases propane methane butane pentane Natural Gas 5 Crude oil (aka “oil”) * Liquid mixture of naturally occurring hydrocarbons * After refining: the chief source of transportation fuels Natural gas ** After Gaseous mixture of naturally occurring hydrocarbons processing: used for power generation, residential, fertilizers, manufacturing, transportation (still very limited) 6 Combustion (burning) of hydrocarbons releases carbon dioxide (CO2) into the atmosphere In words: Fuel + Oxygen Carbon dioxide + Water + Heat The general equation: CxHy + (x + y/4)O2 xCO2 + (y/2)H2O E.g., for propane: C3H8 + 5O2 3CO2 + 4H2O 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 Fractional distillation in a refinery very schematic cartoon gases naptha gasoline kerosene L.A. oil refinery diesel lubricants fuel oil residue 14 Natural gas Almost always a mixture of gases; to be used as a fuel, extensive processing is required to produce pure methane. 15 Petrochemicals Chemicals produced from petroleum 16 “Plastics.” The Graduate 1967 ALL PLASTICS are petrochemicals. 17 polystyrene epoxies 18 polycarbonate, etc. 19 PVC solvents 20 Polyester: The most widely used artificial fiber in the U.S. — apparel & home furnishings, plus bottles, fiberglass, LCDs, holograms, filters, insulators, auto body parts, and more. Other synthetic fibers, such as acrylics & dacron: clothing, yarn, rugs, rope, sails, grafts, containers, resins, etc. 21 Nylon Apparel, carpets, musical strings, fishing line, racket strings, rope, auto parts, machine parts, sutures 22 More uses dyes MTBE phenols (antiseptics) eyeglass lenses TNT rubbing alcohol synthetic rubber detergents packaging vinyl auto parts drugs riot shields sterilizers (food & medical supplies 23 The inescapable fact: Modern developed societies depend on petroleum in innumerable ways. We are a petroleumdependent society. “No civilization can survive the destruction of its resource base.” Bruce Sterling Also see Jared Diamond’s Collapse and Joseph Tainter’s Collapse of Complex Societies 24 “The foundation of modern society” “The lifeblood of modern civilization” “The Prize” 20th century = “The Oil Century” Petroleum is a non-renewable resource that took millions of years to form. Our use of it has been unsustainable. 1858 North America’s first oil wells 1860 World’s first integrated oil company Petrolia, Ontario Titusville, PA 1859 First U.S. drilling rig 1860–1900 “Oil boom” trained drillers who later dispersed around the planet: U.S., Middle East, South America, etc. 26 Make lists of the top 5 countries: Oil production to date (since ~1860) USA FSU KSA Iran Venezuela Current (2007) rate of oil production FSU = former Soviet Union KSA = Kingdom of Saudi Arabia UAE = United Arab Emirates KSA FSU USA Iran China Remaining oil reserves KSA Iraq Iran Kuwait UAE/Venez 27 The unequal distribution of petroleum triggered many military and other strategic decisions over the last century. Early 1900s: Britain converted its fleet from coal to oil; dependence on Middle East oil; long-term involvement there starting in World War 1. Events before and during World War II * 1930s: Japan imports ~80% of its oil from the USA, and ~18% from Dutch East Indies (Indonesia). * 1937: Japan invades China, initiating war between them. * Aug 1941: U.S. oil embargo vs. Japan, which has 1.5 years of oil reserves. * Dec 1941: Japan attacks Pearl Harbor, simultaneously invades Dutch East Indies (Indonesia); first targets: oil fields and refineries. *Germany’s North Africa campaign part of the Axis plan to control the Suez canal and Middle East oil supplies. 28 U.S. strategy after WWII: U.S. production supported the Allied effort throughout WWII, but dwindling reserves encouraged administrations (starting w/FDR) to look internationally….chiefly to the Middle East. Iran 1953: The U.S. (via CIA) and U.K. organized the overthrow of Iran’s elected prime minister, who had recently nationalized the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company (which became British Petroleum (BP) in 1954). 1991 Gulf War: After Iraq invaded oil-rich Kuwait, the U.S. spearheaded the “liberation” of Kuwait and the defense of oil-richer KSA. The 2003 invasion of Iraq: Purportedly to eliminate weapons of mass destruction etc. Recommended book: Michael Klare, Blood and Oil (2004). 29 B A D C E KSA Iran Iraq 30 Caspian Sea Mediterranean Sea Persian Gulf Red Sea 31 Iran Iraq Kuwait Kingdom of Saudi Arabia Qatar UAE 32 The Middle East contains 45–60% of the world’s petroleum reserves. Ghawar Ghawar: perhaps the most important place you’ve never heard of * World’s largest oil field * 60-65% of KSA production to date * 6% of global production to date * 6% of modern production 33 How to Make Exploitable Petroleum 1. Start with lots of source rock, such as shale containing organic material that has not been oxidized (not very common). 2. Heat the source rock to 60°–120°C (for oil) or 120°– 220°C (for gas). Do not overcook. Will take millions of years. 3. Place a reservoir rock above the source rock. The petroleum will rise because of its low density, so you need a porous (and preferably permeable) rock to hold it. 4. Ensure that the reservoir has a suitable trap—a subsurface geologic structure that will hold (“trap”) petroleum in the reservoir rock, preventing its slow migration to the surface. 34 Pores are open spaces between the particles of a rock. Pores may contain air, gas, or liquid (water or oil). The more pore space, the higher the porosity. The more “connected” the pores, the higher the permeability. Pore fluids will flow more easily in rocks that are more permeable. 35 Cartoon of a vertical slice through the crust showing traps in reservoir rocks where petroleum and water typically accumulate. Color code: Rock Natural Gas Oil Water 36 Typical E&P (exploration and production) steps Explore, using dumb luck (Jed); geologic mapping (late 1800s); standard geophysical tools (1930s); high-tech tools (1990s). Drill a test well. If the petroleum is trapped and under pressure, it will rise naturally; no pumping needed (Jed, early Saudi Arabia). This is the “primary recovery” phase—free-flowing petroleum. Gas released during extraction is valuable but must be trapped and processed; for decades, it was simply flared off. 37 Typical E&P steps, part 2 Primary recovery lasts for several months or years. As the pressure drops, flow slows and operators must use “secondary recovery” techniques for to recover petroleum. The most common technique: injection of water or gas. Injection well water forced downward Production well petroleum rises water enters pores, raises pressure; “sweeps” petroleum in front of it 38 Typical E&P steps, part 3 Water injection also is used to increase production, but usually leads to a quicker reservoir decline and less total production. Injected water produces problems with corrosion, scaling, treatment prior to disposal; requires costly processing and replacement of parts. “Tertiary recovery” techniques may be used once the injection techniques are ineffective. However, they’re expensive, and thus feasible only if the price of petroleum is high.... 39 Production history of an oil field Primary Tertiary Secondary 40 M. King Hubbert and “Peak Oil” Peak Oil: The maximum sustainable production rate of petroleum for an area (e.g., a field, a country, or the world). M. King Hubbert (U.S. geologist) predicted that production rate for any well, field, or region will resemble a bell curve. The peak of such a curve is known as Hubbert’s Peak. Peak Oil does NOT mean “running out of oil.” 41 Hubbert’s prediction for U.S. peak oil: ~1970 Actual date of U.S. peak oil: 1970 (curve shape differs from his prediction due to Alaska discoveries) U.S. production w/Alaska peak in 1970 lower 48 Hubbert’s prediction for global peak oil: ~2000 42 2000 Arab oil embargo Fuel-efficient 76 cars Shift to natural gas, electricity for heat Global peak production had not peaked by 2004. Aug 08 72 1965 But it looks like we’ve been on a “bumpy plateau” since 2004. millions barrels/day 68 4/02 4/03 4/04 4/05 4/06 4/07 4/08