Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making, 28th- 29th September 2006 Korean Technology Foresight for S & T Policy Making Byeongwon Park Technology Foresight Center Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning Seville Seminar on FTA Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making, 28th- 29th September 2006 Korea’s S&T has achieved remarkable growth during the last half century. Past and Present of Korea’s S&T World 8th Power in S&T by 2025 Technological Competitiveness 2nd (IMD, 2005) 7th(WEF, 2005) SCI Paper 19,279(2004) 55% (since 2000) # of Researcher 156,220 FTE 44% (since 2000) US Patents 4,428 34% (since 2000) Corporate Research Institutes 10,270(2004) 44% (since 2000) R&D Budget 28,774(milliom US$ PPP) 56% (since 2000) New S&T Administration Since 2004 Overview of Government R&D in Korea Current National R&D Budget Governmental R&D : $ 7.7B (‘05) Rest of Ministries (Defense, Agriculture, Transportation, etc.) MOCIE : Ministry of Commerce, Industry & Energy MOST : Ministry of Science & Technology MIC : Ministry of Information & Communication OSTI: Office of Science & Technology Innovation 2 MOCIE : 19% for Industrial Technology Development MOST : 19% for Scientific R&D MOST(OSTI) : 11% for Managing Research Organizations MIC : 9% for Information & Communication Technology Government R&D Related Organizational Structure President NSTC* MOST Vice Prime Ministry OSTI MOCIE ITEP Others MIC KISTEP KOSEF IITA Main Bodies of R&D (Research Institutions under Research Council, Private Companies, Universities, etc) 5 *NSTC : National Science & Technology Council Agencies Main Government R&D Programs in Korea 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 2000 2001 2002 2004 Dual Use Tech. Program HAN Project (G7) Space Tech. Development Program MOST Creative Research Initiatives NRL Program MOST National R&D Programs 21C Frontier Program Nuclear Energy Development Program Basic Science Program Next- MOCIE Industrial Technology Program (Program for SME’s Key Tech. Program) Alternative Energy & Energy Conservation Program MIC Information & Telecommunication Technology Program MOD generation growth engine program Dual Use Tech. Program MOHW Health & Medical Technology Program MOEnv Environmental Technology Program Key Environment Tech. Program Agricultural Technology Program MOAF MOE 14 SMBA Small Business Innovation Research Academia Support Program BK21 Program BUT, Korea faces the new and daunting challenges in coming years. Korean Economy in the midst of Uncertainty Increasing risk due to new Tech High oil price -Advances in NT, BT, ET -Fast-follower World leader - 97% import of energy -Energy-intensive industry -(ex.steel Ind.) Fast Ageing society Socioeconomic Polarization -fertility rate : 4.53(‘70)1.08 (‘06) -Net decrease in population after 2020 -Collapse of middle class -Big Corp. vs. SMEs -Seoul vs. Regional FTA & economic Block -38.3% GDP dependence on Export -Rising China --Nutcraker Situation North Korea Some challenges in S&T area Weak Basic Research 100 Increasing Technology Trade Deficits Development Applied Basic 90 80 70 50 40 ` 30 Export Import 4000 US$(million) 60 5000 Tech. Trade Deficit 3000 2000 20 1000 10 0 91 19 9 19 2 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 90 19 89 19 88 19 87 19 86 19 85 19 84 19 82 83 19 YEAR 19 19 19 82 19 83 19 84 19 85 19 86 19 87 19 88 19 89 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 0 YEAR a serious sociocultural phenomena of avoiding sci. & eng. among the young 100% 75% % "Uncertainty cannot be pinned down Vocational Liberal Art Science or coaxed into cages. It is only 50% partly tamable, and we must learn 25% to live with the beast.“ 0% 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 19 00 20 YEAR 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 -Paul J.H. Schoemaker How can Korea find a way to the future of S&T? Foresight Activities Seville Seminar on FTA YEAR DELPHI MIXED PANEL/SCENARIO 19701989 1990 Netherlands 1st Germany 5th Japan OECD(→Present) 1991 1st US-Core Tech. 1992 New Zealand, UN(→present) 1993 1st Korean TF(→1994) 1994 France Japan/Germany 1995 6th Japan France-100 core Tech. 3rd US-critical Tech. Japan Germany AU-ASTEC, Finalnd(1996-98) Netherlands (Future Committee) Italy industrial forecasting ACUNU Millennium Project Nigeria, India, Philippines 1996 1997 1998 1999 2nd Korean TF(→1999) Spain Ireland APEC Hungary-TEP 2nd UK, Germany-FUTUR(→present) Ireland, Italy Venezuela 2nd France-100 Core Tech. Italy 2nd Industrial forecasting China, Portugal, Brazil 7th Japan 8th Japan(→2004) China Netherlands South Africa, New Zealand Sweden, 4th US- critical Tech. Norway, APEC EU-IPTS Futures, Netherlands Austria Germany US George Washington Univ. 2002 2003-2004 1st UK Spain-OPTI 2000 2001 2nd US-Critical Tech., Germany-21C Tech. Czech, Mlata, Cyprus, Estonia Turkey Bulgaria, Rumania, 3rd UK(→present) 3rd Korean TF(→2004) EU(FP 6 →(till 2006) UK (every year) Germany( every year), UN, OECD Foresight is booming everywhere in the world • Increasing interest in thinking about the future of S&T – in order to strengthen the ability to anticipate future S&T related issues – In order to formulate new strategy for S&T policy • Nowadays technology foresight(TF) is practiced in many countries and private firms. – Because TF can make a unique strategic contribution to the policy maker and firm manager as well as social stakeholders. – Especially in the science and technology related area. • The need for priorities in science and technology – No one country can afford vast amount of R&D spending • This Seville Seminar is a premier example that shows the current emerging issues in Foresight activities. Currently On-going TF activity in Korea Type Sponsoring Ministry Facilitating organization Thematic Area or Project Title Time Horizon Methodology TF (2006) Ministry of Information and Communication IITA (Institute for Information Technology Advancement) Foresight for Information Technology -2030 Delphi NCA (National Computerization Agency) Ubiquitous Korea +15 yrs Panel TF (2006) Ministry of Health and Welfare KHIDI (Korea Health Industry Development Institute) Future Trends in Health care and Life Science +15 yrs Delphi TF (2006) Ministry of Environment KIEST (Korea Institute of Environmental Science and Technology) Future Trends in Environmental Technology +15 yrs Environmental Scanning Delphi TF (2006) Ministry of Science and Technology KISTEP (Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning) Thematic Foresight -Nanomaterial -Stem cell -Ubiquitous Computing +15 yrs Panel Scenario F The Presidential Office Presidential Committee on Education Innovation Future of Education in Korea -What we do right now? +15 yrs Panel TRM (2001prese nt) Ministry of Commerce, Industry and Energy KOTEF (Korea Industrial Technology Foundation) Technology Roadmap for - Material and Component - Industries (Robot, Battery, Semiconductor, Automobile etc.) +10 yrs TRM Panel ST (2006) Ministry of Planning and Budget Co-Work with KDI(Korea Development Institute) Vision 2030 - Layout for government Budget Spending up to 2030 -2030 Panel Overview of Korean Technology Foresight carried out by MOST • S&T basic Law : Article 13 (enacted in 2001) • Every 5 years (carried out by KISTEP) • Provide the vision and direction of emerging S&T area – identify new technology that may have high potential for growth of national wealth and betterment of quality of human life • Has to implement in S&T basic plan (every 5 year, 2nd Plan for 20082012)) 1st TF (1993-1994) and 2nd TF(1997-1998) were Lab-Directed Research Projects carried out by STEPI * and KISTEP *STEPI (Science and Technology Policy Institute) 3rd TF was carried out in 2003-2004 by KISTEP and it is the first TF after enactment of S&T basic Law. 3rd Korean TF : Characteristics • Consideration of socio-economic needs and issues in future Korea and enlargement of participation of the stakeholders • Application of Delphi methods for emerging technology that may solve the future needs and issue • Scenario writing for future society – Future prospect, needs/issues and technology – Internal consistency – Increase awareness the role of S&T in the knowledge-based society • Offering of policy alternatives to promote knowledge-based innovative society Time Horizon : up to year 2030 Project : Duration : 2003.7 - 2004.12 TYPE OF EXERCISE ADDRESSED: National – covering all S&T fields and the entire territory of Korea 3rd Korean TF : Procedures 2nd Phase 1st phase Future perspectives Needs and Issues of society (4 actors-15 categories-43 subcategories (Dec. 2003) Future Technology Subjects and Delphi Survey Analysis 3rd Phase Future Social Systems Scenario Building (Dec. 2004) (Aug. 2004) Korean TF : Sector Expert Panels 10 sectors (based on key words) • Space & earth • Material & manufacturing • Information and knowledge • Food & bio-resource • Life & health • Energy & environment • Safety & Securuty • Social Infrastructure • Management & innovation • S&T and society/culture Delphi Survey Provide List of Future Technologies Scenario Korean TF : Results • Technology Foresight with socio-economic consideration (3rd Generation Foresight) – Future perspectives, assessment of future needs & issues – Scenario writing on future social systems (education, labor, healthcare, safety) • Identify 761 future technology subjects – 61% of them will realize between 2011-2015 – Korea is still lagging all future technology area • Korea has the strong competitiveness in IT area • Space and earth is most lagging area(7-10 years) • Strong emphasis on dissemination to the general public – Book, Comics, Movie in addition to formal report • Heavy media exposures • Government took follow-up action quickly – Future Strategic Technology National Strategic Future Technology Initiative • Government launches new project to identify emerging generic technologies at the national level based on 3rd Korean foresight results • Critical attributes of national strategic technology – – – – Emerging Disruptive Converged Strategic area where government should be involved Priority Setting Procedure 3rd Technology Foresight Survey from Industrial & R&D Inst. Overseas DB Future Tech. Candidate DB (KISTEP) 1st Screening (Expert Panel) Survey & 2nd Screening Future Strategic Tech. Future Strategic Technology 21 Economic Impact •Digital convergence •Smart computing •Nano and functional material •Cognitive science and humanoid robot •Culture contents •Regenerative medicine Quality of Life • Bio-safety & defense • Drug discovery & personalized medicine • Bio-diversity and natural resources conservation •Information security •Super efficient transportation •Bio-resource •Satellite •fusion Public Need • Ubiquitous civil infrastructure •Global observing system • Hazardㆍdisaster forecast •Climate/weather forecasting • Next generation nuclear energy •Marine territory management and safety • Clean and renewable energy Technology Roadmapping in Korea Seville Seminar on FTA Brief History of TRM in Korea • Public Sector – MOCIE • Industrial Technology Roadmap – 1st Phase(2000. 9~2001. 8), 2rd Phase(2001. 7~2002. 6), 3rd Phase(2003. 6~2004. 6), 4th Phase(2004. 10~2005. 9) – Annually try the new indursty area(product) and update old ones. – MOST • National Technology Roadmap(2002) – MIC • Private Sector – Samsung Electronics • Customized TRM based on SRI-framework NTRM : Approach Analysis of Industrial Need 5 visions 13 Directions 49 Strategic Product/Functions 99 Key Technologies NTRM Incorporate existing TRMs into NTRM with necessary modifications Handle basic S&T separately from NTRM based on bottom-up approach NTRM include Macro Roadmaps for strategic product/functions and detailed TRM for chosen key technologies InterGovernment Coordination TaskForce NSTC Office Project Team Vision I Committee TRM team A KISTEP NTRM Head Council Vision II Committee TRM team B Vision III Committee TRM team C Vision IV Committee ……….. Vision V Committee TRM team N Ⅱ. NTRM by 5 Visions Five National S&T Visions 2012 1 Building an informationknowledge-intelligence society 2 Aiming at Bio-Healthtopia 3 Advancing the E2 Frontier 4 Upgrading the Value of Major Industries of Korea Today 5 Improving National Safety and Prestige 1. Building an Information-Knowledge-Intelligence Society Meeting a variety of human needs in all areas of life by making IT service more intelligent, mobile, and user-friendly Anytime, Anywhere, Any-device Communication Innovation in Contents & Service Ambient Intelligence Vision Direction of Development Strategic products and Functions Key Technologies Optical Internet Technology High-Speed Wireless Multimedia Technology Mobile Multimedia Contents Technology New Semiconductor Device Technology Anytime, Anywhere, Any-device Communication Digital Convergence Intelligent Computing Ubiquitous Network Mobile & Wearable IT Device Intelligent Network Technology High Density Storage Technology Wire&Wireless Integration System Device Technology Digital Signal Processing Technology Tera-bit Optical Communication Elements Technology Digital Broadcasting Technology E-marketplace Technology InformationKnowledgeIntelligence Society Innovation in Contents & Service Contents Next Generation Information System Technology E-Commerce S/W Standard/Design/Reuse E-Finance Technology Business Service Information Search DBMS Technology Digital Information Design Technology Information Security Technology Knowledge/Information Security Intelligent Man-Machine Interface Ambient Intelligence Movie/Video/Digital Media Standardization Digital Contents Authoring Technology Intelligent Robot Game Engine Technology Intelligent Home Appliance Cyber Communication Technology Intelligent Building/Home Intelligent Transport System Intelligent Medical System Culture Original Form Restore Technology Art Intelligent Technology MEMS Technology Home Network Technology Intelligent Home Appliance Technology Display Technology Bio-Diagnosis Technology Portfolio Analysis of Strategic Products and Functions Mobile & Wearable IT Device (73.3 billion $ in 2005) Very High Ubiquitous Network (2.03 trillion $ in 2005)) E-Commerce (28.7 trillion $ in 2010) Intelligent Computing (765 billion $ in 2004) Intelligent Transport System (425 billion $ in 2015) High Economic Impact Knowledge/Information Security (30 billion $ from 2005) Intelligent Building/Home (15 trillion in 2010) Middle Culture Contents (1.17 trillion $ in 2005) Digital Convergence (570 billion $ in 2004) Man-Machine Interface Intelligence Intelligent Home Appliance (Creating high-value -added, (360 billion $ in 2005) Complex products Intelligent Medical System (Creating new markets, reducing medical costs) Business Service (157 trillion won in 2010) High Low Intelligent Robot (17 billion $ in 2005 Middle Low Very Low Very Low Low Middle High Strategic Importance Very High Potential for success High-speed Wireless Multimedia/ 4G Mobile Communication Competitiveness of domestic technology ■● narrowband CDMA modem wideband CDMA modem Technology ■◎ ■● QAM,OFDM,Diversity,Turbo code ■● Power control, Smart antenna, Interference, SDR ▣◎ Fixed ATM/IP Wireless IP core tech. ■● (QoS, Handoff,Resource management) interworking(GW) ▣◎ DO/GPRS ■● ▣● Product ■● High-speed packet modem IP-based RAN ■● ▣◎ Network High Medium Low ■● IP-based RAN with smart antenna High-speed adaptive RAN ■● Homogeneous network Integration ▣● DO/DV/GPRS enhancements ■● Active core network ▣● ALL-IP core network Adhoc, Bluetooth ▣● PAN ■●high-speed hot spot > 100 Mbps 2007 2002 2G cellular system HMI/Hot Spot system Cdma20001x EV system Cdma20001x EV-DO/ EV-DV W-CDMA system/ HSDPA Importance high low ■ ▣ □ R&D strategy 2012 4G mobile comm. ● basic research ⊙ international collaboration ◎ applied research ○ Outsourcing Corporate Foresight: Samsung • SGTO : based in IBM GTO • Identify Emerging Technology Trends Significant to Industry – Disruptive to Existing Business Potential to Create New Ones – Exponential and Threshold – How New Technology can Impact Customers/Businesses – Understand Customer Challenges Has a Direct Influence on Technical Strategy of Company • Future Technology Center (SAIT) Sectoral Technology Forecasting • Siemens : Picture of Future Combination of Retropolation and Extrapolation Challenges • Due to Law article, it seems to be quite favorable situation to run TF in nation-wide in Korea • But there are several things to be addressed. • Capability to run TF (Facilitator) – Not many – Not enough experiences • Methodological Competence – Till now, DELPHI is major method but continued to use? – What is the best combination of methods • Impact on Policy making – Not Clear yet Thank you Dr. Byeongwon Park bpark@kistep.re.kr ☎ 82 2 589 2931