Economic Bubbles

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Economic Bubbles

How the housing market led to the Great Recession

Econnomic Bubbles

1996 - 2000

USA 2002 - 2007

Holland 1634 - 1637

Economic Bubbles (speculative bubbles) are when the price of an asset

(stock, bonds, or even tulips!) strongly differs from the true economic value of an asset

Economic bubbles have happened throughout history and reflect both “greed” and

“fear” in human nature.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5ZR0jMlxX0

Buying a $500,000 home

Assume you buy a $500,000 house in Marin County

You put up a $100,000 down payment (20%)

A $400,000 loan at a 4% fixed rate mortgage cost $1,908 per month over 30-years

• fixed rate loan paying back all principal & interest over 30 years

With property taxes, full Payment is $2,408 per month

• Property Taxes in California = $500 per month on $500,000 home

• Both interest & property taxes are tax deductible (lower your income tax)

Total principal paid

Total interest paid

Loan Balance

Buying a house

(

Before 2000

)

• Consumers were required to put a 20% down payment

• For a $500,000 home:

– $100,000 down payment & borrow $400,000 (mortgage)

– loan is paid back over 30-years at a Fixed interest rate

– (This meant the monthly payment stayed the same for 30-years)

• The loan was always less than the value of the house

– So banks are taking very little/no risk of default

– Consumers would not “walk away”

New Subprime Mortgages

• Subprime mortgages were introduced in the year 2000

– Required no down payment

– Borrowers had poor credit history

– Had very low initial interest rates

– Interest rates eventually adjusted upward

• Called Adjustable Rate Mortgages

• led to rapidly rising monthly payments in the future

Housing Bubble Analysis

Subprime Mortgage Example

• Price Paid: $1,000,000

• Down Payment: 0

• You owe: $1,000,000

Initial Value of House $1,000,000

New Value: $700,000

Homeowner still owes 1 million but owns a house worth only $700,000

If they can’t pay their monthly mortgage, the Bank will foreclose on their house!

End Result of Subprime Mortgages

• In the short run they caused home prices to rise

• In the long run left people unable to pay their mortgage

– consumers lost their homes to foreclosure

• Housing Bubble reached the peak in 2006

– home prices declined 30%-50% from the peak in 2006

Banks had to be

“bailed out” by the U.S. Government

Banks had huge losses on foreclosed homes & subprime mortgages

Home Loans Bring Losses To

Bank of America

January 21, 2011

Bank of America on Friday reported a loss of $1.6 billion in the 4 th quarter after its costs related to soured home loans increased.

House of Cards

60 minutes video link http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/01/25/60minutes/main3752515.shtml

Financial

Markets

Economist

Recent Economic History

• Reading

Federal Funds Rate

U.S. Business Cycle 1990 -2012

2000 2006

2001

2008-09

2013

?

Want to learn more about the financial crisis?

Good documentary on housing/banking crisis

Inside Job

Housing Bubble Analysis

Caused by

Credit

Bubble

Too easy to get loans

Banks Makes

Home Loans

Loans turned into

Mortgage Backed Securities

Banks sell Loans to

Wall Street

Wall Street turns them into securities

Securities became worthless and Banks went Bankrupt

FNMA & FHLMC

Government takeover

Wall Street Firms Bankrupt or Bought

Bear Stearns

Merrill Lynch

Lehman Brothers

AIG Insurance Company

Government Takeover

Government Takeover of Subprime Mortgages

Interest Rate Worksheet

1) You never pay of the credit card bill!

$5,000 X 20% = $1,000 per year in interest

2) $11,000 $10,000 = principal (loan) + $1,000 in interest

3) $10,200 +$200 in interest (but prices of goods rose => are you better off?)

4) Borrowers = LOW Savers = High 5) Borrowers love the Fed

6) a) @ 4% = $477 X 4 = $1,908 per month for 30-years

( fixed rate loan paying back all principal & interest in 30 years) b) @ 8% = $734 X 4 = $2,936 per month for 30-years

7) $500,000 X 1.2% = $6,000 per year in taxes or $500 per month

Full Payment for $500,000 home is $2,408 per month at 4.0% loan

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