Using the TOC Thinking Process to Identify
Problems, Develop Alternatives, and
Implement Solutions
Ed D. Walker II
Department of Management
Langdale College of Business
Administration
Valdosta State University

• You are expected to solve problems.
• If the job were perfectly routine they would not hire a college graduate.

• What to change?
• To What to Change?
• How to Change?

• Too often we treat the symptom..
• Shouldn’t we treat the underlying problem?
• Have you ever been taught a tool for this?

• What to change?
–
Current Reality Tree
• To what to change?
– Evaporating Cloud
– Future Reality Tree & Negative Branch
• How to change?
– Prerequisite Tree
– Transition Tree

• Today we will focus on the first question
• What to Change?

• A deviation is easily fixed once the cause is recognized. For example - the house is too hot.
Why? The air conditioner isn’t on. Solution: turn on the air conditioner.
• A dilemma is hard to fix even when the problem is recognized because a conflict is involved.
Mary wants to watch “60 Minutes”. John wants to finish watching the football game. There is one TV.

• If the problems were mere deviations they would have been solved once the deviation was recognized. There is nothing to prevent the solution.
• In a business very often the symptoms of the problem appear in department X (say production) but the underlying cause is in department Y (say marketing) and marketing has no incentive to fix the problem.

• A CRT is a diagram that links underlying cause to symptoms via cause-and-effect arrows.
• If the underlying cause involves a dilemma we will need the next tool (evaporating cloud) to solve it.

Symptom a.k.a.
Undesirable
Effect
(or UDE)
UDE
UDE
Underlying
Cause

•
Current Reality Tree -- a logic-based tool for using cause-and-effect relationships to determine root problems that cause the undesirable effects of the system (APICS Dictionary, p. 19.)
Undesirable
Effect
Undesirable
Effect
Undesirable
Effect
Undesirable
Effect
Starting from undesirable effects and using existing knowledge, this thinking process enables a person to pin-point the core problem.
Undesirable
Effect
Core
Problem

• Focus
• Team-Building
• Root Cause Analysis
• Systems Thinking
• Cross Functional Problem Solving
• Effective Communications
• Common and Agreed upon Understanding of the System

1. List between 5 and 10 problems (called undesirable effects -- UDE's) related to the situation.
2. Test each UDE for clarity -- is the UDE a clear and concise statement. This test is called the clarity reservation.
3. Search for a causal relationship between two of the
UDEs.
4. Determine which UDE is the cause and which is the effect. Read as "IF cause THEN effect." This test is called the causality reservation. Occasionally you may have the cause and effect reversed, check using the following statement "Effect BECAUSE cause."

5. Continue the process of connecting the UDEs using the
If-Then logic until all UDEs are connected.
6. Many times the causality is strong to the person feeling the problem but doesn't seem to exist to others. In these instances, "clarity" is the problem. Use the clarity reservation. Generally, entities between the cause and the effect are missing. The current relationship is stated as "IF cause THEN effect." The correct structure in its simplest form may be "IF cause THEN (missing effect).
(Missing effect becomes missing cause at the next higher level.) IF (missing cause) THEN effect."

7. Sometimes the cause by itself may not seem enough to create the effect. These cases are tested with the cause insufficiency reservation and are improved by reading
"IF cause AND __________ THEN effect." What is the missing dependent statement that completes the logical relationship? Add it to your diagram using the
"AND CONNECTOR" (represented graphically by a horizontal line or an ellipse across both connecting arrows). The and in this relationship is called a
"conceptual and" which means that both entities connected with the "and connector" have to be present for the effect to exist. If either entity is eliminated, the effect is eliminated as well.

8. Sometimes the effect is caused by many independent causes. The causal relationships are strengthened by the additional cause reservation. The problem to be addressed is "how many of the causes are important enough to address?" One, two, sometimes three causes frequently result in creating about 80 percent of the effect. Generally, eliminating these few causes is enough of a reduction where the remaining effect becomes minor. Therefore it is not necessary to have an exhaustive list of causes for an effect. These cause-effect relationships are called a
"magnitudinal and" for each cause increases the magnitude of the effect. Each of the causes must be addressed individually to eliminate most of the effect.

9. Sometimes an if-then relationship seems logical but the causality is not appropriate in its wording.
In these instances words like "some", "few",
"many", "frequently", "sometimes" and other adjectives can make the causality stronger.
10. Numbering of UDEs on the CRT is for ease of locating entities only. An asterisk by a UDE indicates that UDE was provided in the original list of UDEs.

• List Undesirable Effects (UDEs)
– Many bank tellers quit to take a better job.
– Some single parent bank tellers quit to make more money on public assistance and to be with their children.
– Many bank teller job vacancies occur each year.

• List Undesirable Effects (UDEs)
– The bank’s budget for hiring, training, and raises is quite small.
– Some bank tellers (students or their spouses) quit at college graduation.
– Bank teller jobs are low paying entry level positions.

• Search for causal relationships
Desirable
Effect
Desirable
Effect
Desirable
Effect
Desirable
Effect
Injection
This thinking process enables a person to construct a solution which, when implemented, replaces the existing undesirable effects with desirable effects.
Injection
Injection

• Search for causal relationships

• Search for causal relationships

• Search for causal relationships
60 Several bank teller job openings occur each year.
40 Some bank tellers
(students or their spouses) quit at college graduation.
50 Some single parent bank tellers quit to make more money on public assistance and to be with their children.
30 Many bank tellers quit to take better job positions.

• Search for causal relationships
30 Many bank tellers quit to take better job positions.
20 Many industries have higher paying entry level positions.
10 Bank teller jobs are low paying entry level positions.

100 The bank has little money left for raises.
80 The bank's budget for hiring, training, and raises is quite small.
90 The bank is constantly hiring and training new employees.
70 Most bank teller vancacies are filled with new inexperienced employees.
60 Several bank teller job openings occur each year.
40 Some bank tellers (students or their spouses) quit at college graduation.
50 Some single parent bank tellers quit to make more money on public assistance and to be with their children.
30 Many bank tellers quit to take better job positions.
20 Many industries have higher paying entry level positions.
10 Bank teller jobs are low paying entry level positions.

75 Significant future sales are lost.
65 Some customers may not like the quality of service provided.
70 Significant current sales are lost.
55 Approximately 20% of the tables are tied up significantly longer than expected.
60 Potential customers leave because of long lines.
30 Some customers don't complain; they just don't return.
45 An overcooked steak takes about 16 minutes to correct.
50 An undercooked steak takes about 10 minutes to correct.
40 Some customers (3%) request the undercooked steak be redone. This is about 10% of tables.
35 Some customers (3%) request the overcooked steak be redone. This is about 10% of tables.
25 The customer is dissatisfied with the steak.
20 The cook does not prepare the steak to the customer's specifications.
15 The customer does not know what rare, medium rare, medium, medium well, and well done means with respect to this restaurant.
5 The grill is too hot.
10 The grill is too cool.

• Clarity
• Entity Existence
• Causality
• Tautology (House on Fire)
• Cause Insufficiency
• Additional Cause
• Predicted Effect

Correct order for expressing the Catagories of Legitimate Reservation
First
Clarity Reservation
(What does this word mean?)
Second
Entity Existence
(Does that really exist in your environment?)
Third
Causality Existence
(How/Where does that come from this?)
Cause Insufficiency
(This doesn't cause that without providing another cause in the "and" connector)
Additional Cause
(I agree but I also see the effect could be caused by another, additional cause)
Predicted Effect
(If what you say is true, I should expect to see another effect which doesn't exist in this reality)
Tautology
(These are related but the arrow is going the wrong way OR The effect is the justification of the cause.)

1) Secretaries are frustrated.
2) Secretaries make mistakes.
3) The manager/department appears inept.
4) Work is completed slowly.
5) Secretaries constantly ask managers for clarification.
6) Managers do not trust the system.
7) Secretaries often change departments.
8) The secretary is not trained.

Is the UDE a clear and concise statement?
1) Secretaries become frustrated with their work assignment/load.
2) Secretaries make mistakes.
3) The manager/department appears inept.
4) Work gets postponed/completed more slowly than expected.
5) Work must iterate between the manager and secretary several times.
6) Management loses trust in the system.
7) Secretaries are rotated among the managers frequently.
8) Assignments are made for which the secretary is not trained.

3* The manager/ department appears inept.
2* Secretaries make mistakes.

2* Secretaries make mistakes.
8* Assignments are made for which the secretary is not trained.

3* The manager/ department appears inept.
4* Work get postponed/completed more slowly than expected.

1* Secretaries become frustrated with their work assignment/load.
6* Management loses trust in the system.
2* Secretaries make mistakes.
4* Work get postponed/complet ed more slowly than expected.
3* The manager/ department appears inept.
5* Work must iterate between the manager and secretary several times.

8* Assignments are made for which the secretary is not trained.
7* Secretaries are rotated among managers frequently.
21 Different departments/managers require different skill sets of their secretaries.

a.
2* Secretaries make mistakes.
b.
2* Secretaries make mistakes.
23 Secretaries are unable to learn what a particular department/manager likes.
7* Secretaries are rotated among managers frequently.
7* Secretaries are rotated among managers frequently.

a.
7* Secretaries are rotated among managers frequently.
b.
7* Secretaries are rotated among managers frequently.
52 Secretarial staff supervisor reassigns work/secretary to satisfy the secretary.
1* Secretaries become frustrated with their work assignment/load.
1* Secretaries become frustrated with their work assignment/load.

52 Secretarial staff supervisor reassigns work/secretary to satisfy the secretary.
1* Secretaries become frustrated with their work assignment/load.
7 (loop)
6* Management loses trust in the system.
3* The manager/ department appears inept.
4* Work get postponed/completed more slowly than expected.
2* Secretaries make mistakes.
5* Work must iterate between the manager and secretary several times.
8* Assignments are made for which the secretary is not trained.
23 Secretaries are unable to learn what a particular department/manager likes.
21 Different departments/managers require different skill sets of their secretaries.
7* Secretaries are rotated among managers frequently.
52 (loop)

7* Secretaries are rotated among managers frequently.
52 Secretarial staff supervisor reassigns work/secretary to satisfy the secretary.
100 In a pool of 16 secretaries, at least one secretary is absent one day per week.
39 Secretaries are shifted to cover for absences.
101 Secretaries take time off work for family/vacation/personal leave.

39 Secretaries are shifted to cover for absences.
101 Secretaries take time off work for family/vacation/personal leave.
102 The highest skilled secretary is always assigned to the highest level of management.

81
1* Secretaries become frustrated with their work assignment/load.
81 Secretaries try hard to please the manager(s).
49
80 The secretarial staff supervisor counsels the secretary about his/her work quality.
2* Secretaries make mistakes.
27 Managers must oversee more work than he/she should.
7 (loop)
52 Secretarial staff supervisor reassigns work / secretary to satisfy the manager(s) / secretary.
27
49 Managers are less efficient.
110 The manager complains to the secretarial staff supervisor.
4
48 The company is less efficient.
109 The manager does not have time to do things that cannot/have not been delegated.
107 The manager is required to do some tasks his/her self.
34 Managers don’t train their secretary to handle as many tasks as might be possible.
1
46 The work of the receiving department is also made late.
50 Secretaries are less efficient.
24 Managers can’t become too dependent upon a particular secretary.
7
31 The work scheduling system is informal and ineffective.
3* The manager/ department appears inept.
91 Some secretaries are less busy than the system would indicate.
81 Some secretaries are busier than the system would indicate.
48
4* Work get postponed/completed more slowly than expected.
106 The work of the absent secretary is delayed.
99 Managers interrupt the work currently being processed by the secretary to expedite a task.
71 The secretary assignment system is bypassed.
5* Work must iterate between the manager and secretary several times.
105 The moved secretary is unfamiliar with the new department/ manager and is therefore less efficient.
104 The current work of the moved secretary is delayed.
37 The secretary’s current workload is not considered
6* Management loses trust in the system.
61 Managers seek out the secretary whose skills are required even if the secretary is on another department.
23 Secretaries are unable to learn what a particular department/manager likes.
21
24
8* Assignments are made for which the secretary is not trained.
100 In a pool of 16 secretaries, at least one secretary is absent one day per week.
101 Secretaries take time off work for family/vacation/personal leave.
7* Secretaries are rotated among managers frequently.
52 (loop)
44 Managers aren’t notified of the shift.
51 Secretarial skill don’t necessarily match the skill sets required by different managers.
41 Manager know which secretary possesses the skills required.
19 There are no formal initial training requirements
39 Secretaries are shifted to cover for absences.
102 The highest skilled secretary is always
103 Lower level managers are unable to chose which secretary is assigned to them.
assigned to the highest level of management.
11 Different secretaries have different skill sets.
21 Different departments/managers require different skill sets of their secretaries.
8
Figure 11: The final Current Reality Tree.

• You are to use the thinking process tools to analyze something in your personal life.
– School
– Relationships
– Sports performance
– Whatever
• This project is an individual project designed to allow you to become comfortable with the tools.
• In Project 2, each group will find a business to analyze with the TP tools.