CHINA AND
SYSTEMS
THINKING
EXERCISE
OVERSHOOT CAUSES & SYMPTOMS
CAUSES:
• ACCELERATING CHANGE
-Exponential Population Growth
-Exponential Industrial Growth
• CAPACITY LIMITS
-Extraction Limits
-Absorptive Limits
-Erosion Loops/Thresholds
• FEEDBACK DELAYS
-Distorted, Noisy, Denied,
Ignored, Imperfect Signals
-Policy Delay/Confusion
SYMPTOMS:
•RESOURCE DEPLETION
•RISING WASTE/POLLUTION
•RISING EXTRACTION COSTS
•LOSS OF NATURAL SERVICES
•LOWER QUALITY RESOURCES
•NATURAL DISASTERS
•CRUMBLING INFRASTRUCTURE
•NATURAL RESOURCE CONFLICT
•HOSTILE AREA RESOURCES
•MILITARIZED ACQUISITION
•INCREASING DEBT RELIANCE
•ERODING GOALS FOR HEALTH
•SUBSIDIES FOR EXTRACTION
•SUBSIDIES TO RESOURCE USE
•“DESIRED” TO “AFFORDABLE”
•ELITE RESOURCE CAPTURE
Meadows, Randers &Meadows, Limits to Growth, 2004
TRANSITION TO SUSTAINABILITY: HOW?
One possibility
Another possibility
Global
carrying
capacity
Global
carrying
capacity
Human
ecological
footprint
1900
Human
ecological
footprint
2100
1900
2100
TWO TYPES OF LOOPS
• REINFORCING
• POSITIVE
• DEVIATIONAMPLIFYING
• SELF-CHANGING
• MORPHOGENETIC
• EVEN NUMBER OF
NEGATIVE OR
OPPOSITE LINKS
• BALANCING
• NEGATIVE
• DEVIATIONCOUNTERACTING
• SELF-REGULATING
• HOMEOSTATIC
• ODD NUMBER OF
NEGATIVE OR
OPPOSITE LINKS
REINFORCING (POSITIVE) FEEDBACK
S
BIRTHS
PER
YEAR
S
(R)
POPULATION
BALANCING (NEGATIVE) FEEDBACK
S
OPENING OF
WARM WATER
FAUCET
O
S
DESIRED
SHOWER
TEMPERATURE
(B)
SHOWER
TEMPERATURE
The Future of China
China’s environmental problems are among the most severe
of any major country, and are getting worse. The long list
ranges from air pollution, biodiversity losses, cropland
losses, desertification, disappearing wetlands, grassland
degradation, and increasing scale and frequency of humaninduced natural disasters, to invasive species, overgrazing,
river flow cessation, salinization, soil erosion, trash accumulation, and water pollution and shortages. These…problems are
causing enormous economic losses, social conflicts, and health
problems within China…China’s large population, economy, and
area also guarantee that its environmental problems will not
remain a domestic issue but will spill over to the rest of the world,
which is increasingly affected through sharing the same planet,
oceans, and atmosphere with China, and which in turn affects
China’s environment through globalization.”
Jared Diamond, Collapse, 2005, p. 358
1bn
%
POPULATION
ECONOMY
HEALTH
URBANIZATION
CHINA’S
FUTURE
POVERTY
TRANSPORT
ENERGY/
CO2
LAND
FOOD
WATER
imports
Home %
The Simulation
THE BIG ANSWER
(optimizing)
HUMAN
WELFARE
(broadly defined)
(maintaining)
(ensuring)
LIFE SUPPORT
SYSTEMS
SOCIAL
EQUITY
(integrity/
resilience)
(intra- & intergenerational)
CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
ECONOMIC
ENERGY/
POWER
DEMAND
ENDEMIC
CORRUPTION
AUTO/
ROAD
BOOM
COAL/
CARBON
DEPENDENCE
UN/UNDER
EMPLOYMENT
EXPONENTIAL
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
AIR
POLLUTION
WATER
DEFICITS
PUBLIC
ILL-HEALTH
LAND/SOIL
DEGRADATION
CROPLAND
LOSSES
WESTERN
LIFE-STYLE
DESIRE
POPULATION
GROWTH
RURALURBAN
MIGRATION
HYPERURBANIZATION
RURAL&
URBAN
POVERTY
URBANRURAL
INEQUALITY
DEMOCRACY
DEMANDS
GRAIN
HARVEST
DECLINES
WATER
POLLUTION
ENVIRONMENTAL
SOCIAL
DISCONTENT
SOCIAL
What should China do over the next 10 years
by spending$1,000,000,000,000 to avoid
overshoot and become ecologically, socially,
and economically sustainable by 2040?
Prime Minister to deliver a “National
Sustainability Plan” address to the world in
one hour. The plan to become a sustainable
nation should be based on the very best
“systems thinking” possible pinpointing
interventions that have the greatest potential
for synergistically achieving sustainability.
Good Luck!
The Analysis…
if we had the time
GRAIN HARVEST DECLINES
TOTAL CONSEQUENCES
TOTAL CAUSES
TOTAL CONNECTIONS
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
x
TOTAL CAUSES
CROPLAND LOSSES
GRAIN HARVEST DECLINES
PUBLIC ILL-HEALTH
CROPLAND LOSSES
WATER POLLUTION
PUBLIC ILL-HEALTH
LAND/SOIL DEGRADATION
WATER POLLUTION
AIR POLLUTION
LAND/SOIL DEGRADATION
WATER DEFICITS
AIR POLLUTION
DEMOCRACY DEMANDS
WATER DEFICITS
SOCIAL DISCONTENT
DEMOCRACY DEMANDS
RURAL/URBAN POVERTY
SOCIAL DISCONTENT
POPULATION GROWTH
RURAL/URBAN POVERTY
URBAN-RURAL INEQUITY
POPULATION GROWTH
RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION
URBAN-RURAL INEQUALITY
HYPER-URBANIZATION
RURAL-URBAM MIGRATION
ENDEMIC CORRUPTION
HYPER-URBANIZATION
AUTO/ROAD BOOM
ENDEMIC CORRUPTION
ENERGY/POWER DEMAND
AUTO/ROAD BOOM
WESTERN LIFESTYLE DESIRE
ENERGY/POWER DEMAND
COAL/CARBON DEPENDENCE
WESTERN LIFE STYLE DESIRE
UN/UNDER EMPLOYMENT
COAL/CARBON DEPENDENCE
ECONOMIC GROWTH
UN/UNDER EMPLOYMENT
AS
VARIABLES
BELOW
RISE:
ECONOMIC GROWTH
VARIABLES
TO THE RIGHT
WILL TEND TO:
WATER DEFICITS
AIR POLLUTION
LAND/SOIL DEGRADATION
WATER POLLUTION
-
-
-
-
+
=+
+
-+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
x
+
x
ENERGY/POWER DEMAND
AUTO/ROAD BOOM
+
ENDEMIC CORRUPTION
-
HYPER-URBANIZATION
+
RURAL-URBAN MIGRATION
x
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
x
+
+
+
-+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
x
+
+
x
+
+
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
-+
+
+
x
+
-
-
+
x
+
+
-
LAND/SOIL DEGRADATION
-
WATER POLLUTION
-
PUBLIC ILL-HEALTH
-
+
CROPLAND LOSSES
-
+
GRAIN HARVEST DECLINES
-
TOTAL CONSEQUENCES
15
11
6
2
8
6
6
10
14
12
7
TOTAL CAUSES
18
10
7
9
7
12 13
16
10
TOTAL CONNECTIONS
33
21
13
11
15
18 19
26
24
+
-
+
+
-
+
+
-
AIR POLLUTION
-
+
-
+
-
+
+
+
-
+
+
-
-
+
x
-
+
+
+
WATER DEFICITS
-
+
+
DEMOCRACY DEMANDS
-
+
+
+
-
+
x
-
+
+
+
SOCIAL DISCONTENT
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
7
9
+
7
+
12
13
16
+
10
6
+
13
+
11
-
8
6
+
+
+
+
11
+
x
+
+
+
+
+
12
+
+
x
+
+
+
+
12
+
x
+
+
+
13
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
x
+
+
+
+
+
+
+
15
18
10 11
7
10
9
17
6
13 11
8
6
11
12
12
13
8
18
20 26
26
16 22
19
22
22 26
+
+
+
+
x
+
+
+
+
+
+
10
+
+
RURAL/URBAN POVERTY
+
+
+
+
+
18
+
-+
POPULATION GROWTH
+
+
+
-
+
+
+
x
+
URBAN-RURAL INEQUALITY
+
+
x
+
+
-+
TOTAL CAUSES
DEMOCRACY DEMANDS
+
GRAIN HARVEST DECLINES
SOCIAL DISCONTENT
+
CROPLAND LOSSES
RURAL/URBAN POVERTY
+
PUBLIC ILL-HEALTH
POPULATION GROWTH
-
URBAN-RURAL INEQUALITY
-
RURAL-URBAM MIGRATION
+
HYPER-URBANIZATION
+
ENDEMIC CORRUPTION
x
COAL/CARBON DEPENDENCE
WESTERN LIFESTYLE DESIRE
+
AUTO/ROAD BOOM
UN/UNDER EMPLOYMENT
-
ENERGY/POWER DEMAND
x
WESTERN LIFE STYLE DESIRE
ECONOMIC GROWTH
COAL/CARBON DEPENDENCE
AS
VARIABLES
BELOW
RISE:
UN/UNDER EMPLOYMENT
ECONOMIC GROWTH
VARIABLES
TO THE RIGHT
WILL TEND TO:
8
x
+
7
x
6
12
9
215
7
6
215
19 13
CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
ECONOMIC
ENDEMIC
CORRUPTION
PRIMARY
CAUSES
13
ENERGY/
POWER
DEMAND
AUTO/
ROAD
BOOM
COAL/
CARBON
DEPENDENCE
WATER
DEFICITS
PUBLIC
ILL-HEALTH
LAND/SOIL
DEGRADATION
CROPLAND
LOSSES
13
UN/UNDER
EMPLOYMENT
EXPONENTIAL
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
AIR
POLLUTION
WESTERN
LIFE-STYLE
DESIRE
POPULATION
GROWTH
18
HYPERURBANIZATION
RURALURBAN
MIGRATION
16
RURAL&
URBAN
POVERTY
URBANRURAL
INEQUALITY
DEMOCRACY
DEMANDS
13
GRAIN
HARVEST
DECLINES
WATER
POLLUTION
ENVIRONMENTAL
SOCIAL
DISCONTENT
SOCIAL
CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
ECONOMIC
ENERGY/
POWER
DEMAND
ENDEMIC
CORRUPTION
PRIMARY
CONSEQUENCES
AUTO/
ROAD
BOOM
COAL/
CARBON
DEPENDENCE
UN/UNDER
EMPLOYMENT
EXPONENTIAL
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
AIR
POLLUTION
WATER
DEFICITS
PUBLIC
ILL-HEALTH
17
LAND/SOIL
DEGRADATION
CROPLAND
LOSSES
WESTERN
LIFE-STYLE
DESIRE
POPULATION
GROWTH
15
RURALURBAN
MIGRATION
14
HYPERURBANIZATION
RURAL&
URBAN
POVERTY
URBANRURAL
INEQUALITY
15
DEMOCRACY
DEMANDS
GRAIN
HARVEST
DECLINES
WATER
POLLUTION
ENVIRONMENTAL
SOCIAL
DISCONTENT
18
SOCIAL
CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
ECONOMIC
ENERGY/
POWER
DEMAND
ENDEMIC
CORRUPTION
AUTO/
ROAD
BOOM
COAL/
CARBON
DEPENDENCE
MOST
CONNECTED
PUBLIC
ILL-HEALTH
UN/UNDER
EMPLOYMENT
EXPONENTIAL
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
AIR
POLLUTION
WESTERN
LIFE-STYLE
DESIRE
WATER
DEFICITS
POPULATION
GROWTH
33
HYPERURBANIZATION
RURALURBAN
MIGRATION
26
26
LAND/SOIL
DEGRADATION
CROPLAND
LOSSES
RURAL&
URBAN
POVERTY
URBANRURAL
INEQUALITY
26
DEMOCRACY
DEMANDS
GRAIN
HARVEST
DECLINES
WATER
POLLUTION
ENVIRONMENTAL
SOCIAL
DISCONTENT
SOCIAL
26
C
CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
ECONOMIC
C
ENERGY/
POWER
DEMAND
ENDEMIC
CORRUPTION
CAUSEEFFECT
RATIOS
AIR
AUTO/
ROAD
BOOM
COAL/
CARBON
DEPENDENCE
POLLUTION
WATER
DEFICITS
LAND/SOIL
DEGRADATION
E
GRAIN
HARVEST
DECLINES
WATER
POLLUTION
ENVIRONMENTAL
C
C
POPULATION
GROWTH
C
CROPLAND
LOSSES
C
UN/UNDER
EMPLOYMENT
EXPONENTIAL
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
PUBLIC E
ILL-HEALTH
WESTERN
LIFE-STYLE
DESIRE
C
RURAL- E
URBAN
MIGRATION
HYPERURBANIZATION
RURAL&
URBAN
POVERTY
URBAN- E
RURAL
INEQUALITY
SOCIAL E
DISCONTENT
SOCIAL
E
DEMOCRACY
DEMANDS E
CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
ECONOMIC
ENERGY/
POWER
DEMAND
ENDEMIC
CORRUPTION
ADDICTED
TO
GROWTH
COAL/
CARBON
DEPENDENCE
AIR
POLLUTION
WATER
DEFICITS
LAND/SOIL
DEGRADATION
CROPLAND
LOSSES
GRAIN
HARVEST
DECLINES
POPULATION
GROWTH
R
RURALURBAN
MIGRATION
ENVIRONMENTAL
+
HYPERURBANIZATION
+
RURAL&
URBAN
POVERTY
URBANRURAL
INEQUALITY
+
WATER
POLLUTION
WESTERN
LIFE-STYLE
DESIRE
UN/UNDER
EMPLOYMENT
EXPONENTIAL
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
-
PUBLIC
ILL-HEALTH
-
AUTO/
ROAD
BOOM
SOCIAL
DISCONTENT
+
SOCIAL
DEMOCRACY
DEMANDS
CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
ECONOMIC
ENERGY/
POWER
DEMAND
ENDEMIC
CORRUPTION
SUCCESS TO
COAL/
CARBON
THE
DEPENDENCE
SUCCESSFUL
AIR
(URBANIZED)
POLLUTION
EXPONENTIAL
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
LAND/SOIL
DEGRADATION
CROPLAND
LOSSES
WESTERN
LIFE-STYLE
DESIRE
UN/UNDER
EMPLOYMENT
WATER
DEFICITS
PUBLIC
ILL-HEALTH
AUTO/
ROAD
BOOM
POPULATION
GROWTH
RURALURBAN
MIGRATION
HYPERURBANIZATION
RURAL&
URBAN
POVERTY
URBANRURAL
INEQUALITY
DEMOCRACY
DEMANDS
GRAIN
HARVEST
DECLINES
WATER
POLLUTION
ENVIRONMENTAL
SOCIAL
DISCONTENT
SOCIAL
CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
ECONOMIC
ENERGY/
POWER
DEMAND
ENDEMIC
CORRUPTION
LIMITS
TO
GROWTH
AUTO/
ROAD
BOOM
PHYSICAL
COAL/
CARBON
GROWTH UN/UNDER
EMPLOYMENT
DEPENDENCE
-
AIR
POLLUTION
PUBLIC
ILL-HEALTH
B
WATER
DEFICITS
LAND/SOIL
DEGRADATION
WATER
POLLUTION
ENVIRONMENTAL
R/B
POPULATION
GROWTH
RURALURBAN
MIGRATION
HYPERURBANIZATION
B
+
ENVTAL
CROPLAND SCARCITY
LOSSES
GRAIN
HARVEST
DECLINES
EXPONENTIAL
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
WESTERN
LIFE-STYLE
DESIRE
-+
URBANRURAL
INEQUALITY
SOCIAL
STRESS
+
RURAL&
URBAN
POVERTY
SOCIAL
DISCONTENT
SOCIAL
DEMOCRACY
DEMANDS
CHINA’S DEVELOPMENT CHALLENGES
ECONOMIC
SLOW,SHRINK
ENDEMIC
CORRUPTION
ENERGY/
POWER
DEMAND
AUTO/
ROAD
BOOM
COAL/
CARBON
DEPENDENCE
UN/UNDER
EMPLOYMENT
POPULATION
GROWTH
EXPONENTIAL
ECONOMIC
GROWTH
AIR
POLLUTION
SIGNALS
PUBLIC
ILL-HEALTH
WESTERN
LIFE-STYLE
DESIRE
WATER
DEFICITS
RURALURBAN
MIGRATION
HYPERURBANIZATION
RURAL&
URBAN
POVERTY
SOCIALIZE ENVIRONMENT
ENVIRONMENTALIZE SOCIAL
CROPLAND
LOSSES
LAND/SOIL
DEGRADATION
URBANRURAL
INEQUALITY
DEMOCRACY
DEMANDS
GRAIN
HARVEST
DECLINES
WATER
POLLUTION
PROTECT,RESTORE
ENVIRONMENTAL
SOCIAL
DISCONTENT
BUILD HUMANSOCIAL SOCIAL
CAPITAL
EASING BACK FROM OVERSHOOT:
NEW INFORMATION, RULES & GOALS
•EXTEND THE PLANNING HORIZON
•IMPROVE THE SIGNALS
•SPEED UP RESPONSE TIME
•MINIMIZE NONRENEWABLE RESOURCE USE
•HALT EROSION OF RENEWABLE RESOURCES
•SATISFY NONMATERIAL NEEDS NONMATERIALLY
•MAXIMUM RESOURCE USE EFFICIENCY
•SLOW/STOP EXPONENTIAL GROWTH
Brief Focus on China
Eclipsed US in consumption of most basic resources (grain, meat, coal, steel)

Meat 67m tons (vs US 39 m)

Steel 258m tons (vs US 104m)
What if China reaches US per capita consumption?

Expanding at 8% pa – it will reach US levels in 2031

Projected 1.45 billion people would consume:


2/3 of world’s grain harvest

Paper consumption would double world’s current production

Would require 99 million barrels of oil per day (current prod 84m b/day)
If China had 3 cars for 4 people (as in the US) its fleet would total 1.1
billion vehicles – current world fleet is 800 million
India’s population by 2031 will be larger than China’s…