Research Methods for the
Social Sciences:
An Introductory Course
January 19th, 2010 – Class Introduction
Division on Addictions, Cambridge Health Alliance
Harvard Medical School
Course Objectives
Learn to critically evaluate empirical
research
 Learn to identify critical components and
potential pitfalls of research designs
 Learn to determine the appropriate
research design for a given research
question
 Gain the foundation to begin to design
own research

Course Schedule
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1/19: Course Introduction (Sarah Nelson, PhD)
1/26: Research Design Overview (Heather Gray, PhD)
2/2: Research Design Part II – Data Collection and
Procedures (John Kleschinsky, MPH)
2/9: Measurement and Validity (Julia Braverman, PhD)
2/16: Crash Course in Statistics (Evelyn Chao, PhD)
2/23: More on Design – Causality (Nelson)
3/2: The Context of Research (Debi LaPlante, PhD)
3/9: Ethics (Ryan Martin, PhD)
3/16: Practical Notes (Course Faculty)
3/23: Conclusion (Nelson)
Course Webpage
www.divisiononaddictions.org/methodscours
e.htm (also available through the education
section of the Division’s website)
 Powerpoints and suggested readings will be
posted.
 You will need a password to access the
material. Password is “methods”.
 Website will be functional by the end of this
week.

Assignment

By the end of this week, please select one
scientific article from your area of specialty
that you would be interested in reading
critically as part of this class. Email the
reference to snelson@hms.harvard.edu.
“It ain't what you don't know
that gets you in trouble;
it's what you know for sure
that ain't so.”
Mark Twain
Witt, P. N. (1956). Die wirkung von substanzen auf den netzbau der spinne als biologischer test.
Berline-Gottinger-Heidelberg: Springer-Verlag.
NAME THAT DRUG!
1) Hashish
2) LSD
A.
B.
3) Caffeine
4) Mescaline
C.
D.
NAME THAT DRUG!
1) Hashish
2) LSD
A. Hashish
B. LSD
3) Caffeine
4) Mescaline
C. Caffeine
D. Mescaline
Baseball & Science
“Baseball—of all
things—was an
example of how an
unscientific culture
responds, or fails to
respond, to the
scientific method”
Michael Lewis, Moneyball,
2003, p.xiv
How Do Baseball Scouts Typically
Identify “Talent”?
“…there was a bias toward what
people saw with their own eyes, or
thought they had seen. The human
mind played tricks on itself when it
relied exclusively on what it saw…
There was a lot you couldn’t see
when you watched a baseball game”
(Lewis, 2003, p.18)
Revised Models of What Predicts
Winning in Baseball
 Runs
scored is best predictor of
winning
 Best predictor of runs
scored is on-base %,
not batting average,
ERA, defense, etc.
What Does Baseball Have to Do
with Research Methods?
 If
our eyes can deceive us to thinking
that certain key “baseball” factors are
important, when often they are not,
then…
 Our eyes can deceive us similarly to
thinking that certain key factors are
integral to other behaviors we
observe or experiences we study,
when often they are not
A Bald Girl?

Often our
definitions of
concepts rely on
non-integral
aspects of those
concepts.
Marlo Thomas and Friends, 1974. Free to Be, You and Me
Flawed Research

“Cute feet, small, dainty, yup, I’m a girl”
– [No comparison group]

“Bald – you’re bald, fella, bald as a ping
pong ball”
– [Predictive at one age, not all]

“You’re bald, too!” “Yech, a bald girl –
disgusting.”
– [Dropping initial assumption in order to
support theory]

“You just shaved, right?” “Wrong!”
“Exactly!”
– [Could have used evidence either way]
The Dangers of CHC
1.
2.
3.
4.
More than 98 percent of convicted felons have tested
positive for CHC.
CHC is associated with all the major diseases of the
body. For example, nearly all sick people have ingested
CHC. The effects are obviously cumulative: 99.9% of
all people who die from cancer have ingested CHC.
99.7% of the people involved in auto accidents used a
substance containing CHC within 6 months preceding
the accident.
93.1% of juvenile delinquents come from
neighborhoods where CHC is used frequently.
From Fraley, C. (http://www.uic.edu/classes/psych/psych242f/spring2004)
The Dangers of Bread
1.
2.
3.
4.
More than 98 percent of convicted felons are bread
users.
Bread is associated with all the major diseases of the
body. For example, nearly all sick people have eaten
bread. The effects are obviously cumulative: 99.9% of
all people who die from cancer have eaten bread.
99.7% of the people involved in auto accidents ate
bread within 6 months preceding the accident.
93.1% of juvenile delinquents came from homes where
bread is served frequently.
From Fraley, C. (http://www.uic.edu/classes/psych/psych242f/spring2004)
Konrad Lorenz (Austrian ethologist)
“It is a good morning exercise
for a research scientist to
discard a pet hypothesis every
day before breakfast. It keeps
him young.”
On Aggression, ch. 2 (1963; tr. 1966).
Problems with Personal
Experience
We tend to seek information that is consistent with
our beliefs and ignore inconsistent information
(bald girl)
 We tend to base our inferences on little information
(anecdote)
 Our expectations tend to influence what we see
(bald girl, CHC)
 We’re not attentive to base rates and comparisons

– We overlook the fact that inferences about contingencies
require some kind of comparison or standard. (CHC)
Adapted from Fraley, C. (http://www.uic.edu/classes/psych/psych242f/spring2004)
Problems with Personal
Experience

The confirmation bias helps to ensure
that, once an expectation or theory has
been developed, the belief will be selfperpetuating.
Adapted from Fraley, C. (http://www.uic.edu/classes/psych/psych242f/spring2004)
The Scientific Method

The scientific method is a way of dealing
with these concerns.

Science is the process of constructing,
testing, and refining theories about natural
phenomena though the use of systematic
empirical observation.
Adapted from Fraley, C. (http://www.uic.edu/classes/psych/psych242f/spring2004)
Scientific Method, Defined

The collection of data through observation
and experimentation and the formulation
and testing of hypotheses. (Merriam-Webster’s
Dictionary)
Scientific Method as SelfCorrecting
theory about
how something
works
generate
predictions
testing:
comparing the
observations
with the theory
(what would the
theory lead you to
observe?)
systematic
empirical
observations
Adapted from Fraley, C. (http://www.uic.edu/classes/psych/psych242f/spring2004)
Scientific Method as SelfCorrecting
theory about
how something
works
testing:
comparing the
observations
with the theory
ensures that
inconsistent
observations will be
recorded
generate
predictions
(what would the
theory lead you to
observe?)
systematic
empirical
observations
Adapted from Fraley, C. (http://www.uic.edu/classes/psych/psych242f/spring2004)
Scientific Method as SelfCorrecting
theory about
how something
works
testing:
comparing the
observations
with the theory
ensures that
inconsistent
observations will be
counted against the
theory
generate
predictions
(what would the
theory lead you to
observe?)
systematic
empirical
observations
Adapted from Fraley, C. (http://www.uic.edu/classes/psych/psych242f/spring2004)
Scientific Method as SelfCorrecting
theory about
how something
works
testing:
comparing the
observations
with the theory
theory is revised in
light of the tests,
and, hopefully,
becomes more
accurate
generate
predictions
(what would the
theory lead you to
observe?)
systematic
empirical
observations
Adapted from Fraley, C. (http://www.uic.edu/classes/psych/psych242f/spring2004)
Scientific Method

Theory
– An organized set of principles that describes,
predicts, and explains some phenomenon.

Hypothesis
– A specific testable prediction, often derived
from a theory
from Kassin, 1998, Psychology (2nd Edition).
Scientific Method
Science is a process for understanding the
world.
 It is not a topic or subject matter. Some
people believe that chemistry, for
example, is inherently scientific. However,
one can study chemical phenomena in
scientific ways or in non-scientific ways.

Adapted from Fraley, C. (http://www.uic.edu/classes/psych/psych242f/spring2004)
Scientific Method

Step 1. Observe behavior or other phenomena

Induction
– Involves using a relatively small set of specific
observations as the basis for forming a general statement
about a larger set of possible observations.

People at Cambridge Health Alliance are not very
interested in learning about research methods
Adapted from research methods lecture by Julia Braverman
Scientific Method

Step 2. Form a Tentative answer or explanation

Initial Hypothesis

People at Cambridge Health Alliance do not sign
up for research methods because they do not
value science
Adapted from research methods lecture by Julia Braverman
Scientific Method

Step 3. Use hypothesis to generate a testable
prediction

Deduction (From big to small)
– Uses a general statement as the basis for reaching a
conclusion about specific examples.

If people at CHA do not sign up for research
methods because they do not value science,
then changing the date, time, or location of the
class should not alter enrollment.
Adapted from research methods lecture by Julia Braverman
Scientific Method

Step 4. Evaluate the prediction by making
systematic planned observations
– Compare the predictions with observations.

Changing the date, time, and location increased
enrollment significantly

Lack of agreement:
– Revise the hypothesis

People at CHA do not sign up for research methods
if it is not located at Cambridge Hospital
Adapted from research methods lecture by Julia Braverman
Scientific Theory
Planned observations
New prediction
New hypothesis
Planned observations
Prediction
Observation
Adapted from research methods lecture by Julia Braverman
Hypothesis
Evaluating Research
Is the evidence being forced to fit the
hypothesis?
 Is the interpretation appropriate, given the
results?
 What can the study tell us about the
relationships it measures?
 What unmeasured variables might affect the
results?

Exercise: Jumping to Conclusions
In each of the following situations, the conclusion may be erroneous or is
not justified by the facts. In the space provided, describe the error or
errors in thinking or methodology that invalidate the conclusion and
suggest changes that could be made in the study that might allow for the
conclusion given.

A clinic sponsoring a Stop Smoking treatment
program surveys all the people who completed the
program during its first year. The survey revealed
that 74% of the respondents were still not smoking
three months after completing the program. In
their next advertising campaign, they claim a 75%
success rate for those who enroll in their program.
Copyright © 1996 Andrew Geoghegan
Exercise: Jumping to Conclusions
In each of the following situations, the conclusion may be erroneous or is
not justified by the facts. In the space provided, describe the error or
errors in thinking or methodology that invalidate the conclusion and
suggest changes that could be made in the study that might allow for the
conclusion given.

An investigator gave a personality test to a large
number of crack cocaine addicts. The addicts
scores on the trait of "emotionality" were
significantly lower than the scores on that trait
obtained from the general population. This caused
the investigator to believe that highly unemotional
people are more susceptible to crack cocaine
addiction.
Copyright © 1996 Andrew Geoghegan
Media Headlines
Soda consumption could lead to medical
problems (wvec.com)
2. Kids' Urge To Drink Boosted By Outdoor
Alcohol Ads (Medical News Today)
3. Teen Girls Using Pills, Smoking More Than
Boys (Washington Post)
1.
Soda consumption could lead to
medical problems
An all-American drink, soda, is now raising some real medical concerns according to a new
study. A Framingham Heart study of more than 6,000 people was released Monday afternoon.
According to it, if you’re middle-aged and drink more than one soda a day, you may have a
more than 40% greater rate of either having or developing metabolic syndrome; a cluster of
conditions that increase the risk of heart disease. Researchers discovered that people who
drank one or more sodas each day had a 30% increased risk for obesity, a 25% greater risk
for abnormal blood sugar levels and a 32% increase in the odds of having low levels of good
cholesterol. All three contribute to heart disease.
Former Ghent resident Tim Minger is already cutting back, which is why he and his wife didn’t
drink soda at their Monday lunch. His wife, Agnes, say Tim's soft drink addiction was really
bad. "Like a twelve pack, ok, every other day a twelve pack of Mountain Dew,” said Agnes
Aldana. “I'm sort of addicted,” said Tim. “I drink at least everyday. I've recently switched to
diet. That's my concession.
Here's the clincher; researchers say even drinking diet soda may increase the risk of heart
disease. They can't explain why.
The researchers say it's worth noting that people who drink both regular and diet soft drinks
have a tendency to eat the same kind of food. This study on soda is published in the on-line
edition of the Journal of Circulation.
Kids’ urge to drink boosted by
outdoor ads
In the world depicted in an alcohol billboard, bikini-clad babes clutch icy bottles, frothy beer
flows over frosty mugs and the slogan reads, 'Life is good.' Ads like these may target adults,
but children are getting the message too, a University of Florida and University of Minnesota
study shows.
Adolescents attending schools in neighborhoods where alcohol ads litter the landscape tend to
want to drink more and, compared with other children, have more positive views of alcohol,
researchers report in the Journal of Studies on Alcohol and Drugs.
UF and UM researchers counted the number of alcohol ads within a two-block radius of 63
Chicago schools and compared students' opinions on drinking when they were in sixth grade
and again two years later. The result - The more ads for alcohol there were in a
neighborhood, the more students were interested in drinking alcohol, the findings show….
….About half of all teens sample their first alcoholic drink by the time they are 15, according
to the U.S. Surgeon General, which released a report on teen drinking earlier this year. Teens
who start drinking this early are more likely to have trouble in school, become addicted to
alcohol, smoke cigarettes and use drugs than adolescents who don't drink, the report states….
…."I think results from this study and studies like this study clearly indicate that there should
be policies to ban alcohol advertising near the schools," Komro said. "It clearly shows that
exposure is dangerous for our children."
Teen girls using pills, smoking more
than boys
Teenage girls, having caught up to their male counterparts in
illegal drug use and alcohol consumption, now have the
dubious distinction of surpassing boys in smoking and
prescription drug abuse. In the past two years, in fact, more
young women than men started using marijuana, alcohol and
cigarettes, according to government findings being released
today.
The results are doubly disturbing, researchers said, because
they run counter to trends indicating an overall decline in
teenage drug use and because young women appear to suffer
more serious health consequences as a result.
Critique found at stats.org
For further information:
• snelson@hms.harvard.edu
• www.divisiononaddictions.org
• A copy of this presentation will be available online
(through the “Education” link) by January 22nd
• www.basisonline.org
• Online review of current research in addictions
•
(alcohol, tobacco, illicit drugs, gambling, and
humanities)
Addiction resources