Presentation to the
City of Madison
April 10, 2006
By
Mark Daugherty
Focus On Energy
Renewable Energy Business Development
This presentation is funded in part by Focus on Energy.

2003 first year since 1920s no single discovery > 500 million barrels.
(No single field found large enough to meet demand for 1 week.)*
Note: Global data shown here is reported by ExxonMobil, it is consistent with many others. See: Harry J.
Longwell, executive VP of Exxon-Mobil corporation, http://www.energybulletin.net/primer.php, http://www.feasta.org/documents/wells/contents.html?one/longwell.html and C.J.Campbell, ASPO http://www.peakoil.net/, http://www.peakoil.ie/downloads/newsletters/newsletter35_200311.pdf
* IHS Consultants at http://www.ihsenergy.com/

Global conventional oil production peak estimated in 2006 to 2008 timeframe.
Data Forecast
From the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) 2004
See also: Global Oil and Gas Depletion: an Overview, R.W. Bently, Energy Policy 30
(2002) 189-205. Congressman Rosco Bartlett (R-6-MD), Congressional Record, March
14, 2005, Pages H1409-H1414. http://www.bartlett.house.gov/SupportingFiles/documents/PeakOil.pdf

Gap V1
V1 = V2
V2
From the Association for the Study of Peak Oil (ASPO) 2002.
Excellent Summary on Peak Oil: Congressman Rosco Bartlett (R-6-MD),
Congressional Record, March 14, 2005, Pages H1409-H1414. http://www.bartlett.house.gov/SupportingFiles/documents/PeakOil.pdf

Discovery curve shifted
23 years.
V1
V1 = V2
V2
Natural Gas : US, Canada & Mexico
Discoveries and Production
See: http://www.peakoil.net/JL/JeanL.html

Source International Energy Agency (IEA) http://www.iea.org/statist/index.htm

• Technologies include: tar sands, oil shale, heavy oil, gas to liquids technology
• Like trying to drink through a smaller and smaller straw.
• Lower energy return, Extensive environmental damage.
• Strip mining + heating or steam injection.
• 1.5-2 tons material processed per barrel of oil.
• Bottom line: higher cost, smaller volume
~ 10 times current global coal mining required to meet present oil needs with tar sands or oil shale.

http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/snowmass%5Fnakicenovic%2Epdf

Possible Global Energy Supply
(2005-2100)
7.0E+13
6.0E+13
Coal
5.0E+13
4.0E+13
3.0E+13
2.0E+13
Oil
Renewable
Gas
Oil
Gas
Coal
Nuclear
Renewable
1.0E+13
Nuclear
0.0E+00
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
For background data see: http://www.eia.doe.gov/, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/gas.html, http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/infosheets/coalreserves.htm, http://www.iea.org/, http://www.euronuclear.org/info/encyclopedia/u/uranium-reserves.htm, http://www.peakoil.net/

1.80E+14
1.60E+14
1.40E+14
1.20E+14
1.00E+14
8.00E+13
Renewable
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
6.00E+13
4.00E+13
2.00E+13
0.00E+00
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
For background data see: http://www.eia.doe.gov/, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/gas.html, http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/infosheets/coalreserves.htm, http://www.iea.org/, http://www.euronuclear.org/info/encyclopedia/u/uranium-reserves.htm, http://www.peakoil.net/

Burning fossil fuels generates greenhouse gas emissions driving climate change.
Minimum Artic Ice 1979 Minimum Artic Ice 2005
Ice ~ 43% thinner in 1996 than in 1976
Inage: MSNBC, Associated Press, Sept. 29, 2005 http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/9527485/
Thinning: Professor Peter Wadhams, Scott Polar Research Institute, Cambridge, UK,
BBC news, Wednesday, 27 March, 2002 http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/1894740.stm

Antartica - Collapse of Larsen B Ice Shelf
31 January, 2002 5 March, 2002
•3,250 km 2 of shelf area disintegrated.
•Glacier speeds increased ~ 250% after collapse.
National Snow and Ice Data Center http://nsidc.org/iceshelves/larsenb2002/ http://nsidc.org/news/press/20031219_speed_up.html

John P. Holdren, Harvard University, Co-Chair National Commission on
Energy Policy, 2005 Institutional Investor Summit on Climate Risk,United
Nations • New York • 10 May 2005 , citing Arctic Climate Impact Assessment
2004

+12 m
+7 m
+70 m
From a presentation by Richard B. Alley, U. of Pennsylvania, Cited by John P.
Holdren, Harvard University, Co-Chair National Commission on Energy Policy,
2005 Institutional Investor Summit on Climate Risk,United Nations • New York •
10 May 2005, citing Arctic Climate Impact Assessment 2004
GIS = Greenland Ice
Sheet
WAIS = West
Antarctic Ice Sheet
EAIS = East Antarctic
Ice Sheet
(Estimated time scale is several centuries.)

Greenhouse Gas emissions for advanced generation (2010-2020) technologies.
200
150
100
50
0
Coal Natural
Gas
Solar
PV
Wind
Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Electricity Generation Chains,
Joseph Spadaro, Lucille Langlois and Bruce Hamilton, IEA Bulliten
42/2/2000

• Fossil fuel with carbon sequestration
• 25 billion metric tons of CO2 produced annually
• Equal to the volume of Lake Superior
• 1% leak rate would nullify sequestration in a century
• Nuclear power
• 10 TW of nuclear power = a new 1-GWe plant every 2 days for the next 50 years.
• Then terrestrial uranium exhausted in 10 years.
• Renewable energy
• Exploitable hydroelectric < 0.5 TW
• Tides and ocean currents < 2 TW
• Geothermal energy << 12 TW
• Wind potential ~ 2-4 TW
• Solar ~120,000 TW strikes the Earth
• 10% efficient solar energy “farm” covering 1.6% of the U.S. land area would meet the country’s entire domestic energy needs (2005 Global Consumption ~ 14 TW)
• Comparable with the land area covered by the nation’s federally numbered
Report on the Basic Energy Sciences Workshop on Solar Energy Utilization, April 18-
21, 2005

1.6E+14
1.4E+14
1.2E+14
1.0E+14
Renewables
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
8.0E+13
6.0E+13
4.0E+13
2.0E+13
0.0E+00
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
For background data see: http://www.eia.doe.gov/, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/gas.html, http://www.eia.doe.gov/neic/infosheets/coalreserves.htm, http://www.iea.org/, http://www.euronuclear.org/info/encyclopedia/u/uranium-reserves.htm, http://www.peakoil.net/

3.5E+14
3.0E+14
Demand at
1.8%/yr growth
2.5E+14
2.0E+14
1.5E+14
1.0E+14
5.0E+13
Total energy supply from previous slide.
0.0E+00
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095

1) Reduce energy consumption growth
 Use efficiency and conservation
 Economic growth still possible
2) Develop non-fossil fuel supplies
 Solar electric, wind, solar thermal, biomass
 Grid, storage, forecasting and control optimized for non-fossil fuel supply utilization.

Front 1:
Increasing efficiency and conservation by 1.8% per yr
3.5E+14
3.0E+14
2.5E+14
2.0E+14
1.5E+14
1.0E+14
Demand at
1.8%/yr growth
Efficiency and conservation
Stable demand
5.0E+13
Supply
0.0E+00
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065 2075 2085 2095
Stabilize demand growth.
Allow economic growth.

Front 2:
Increase renewable energy supply
2.0E+14
1.8E+14
1.6E+14
1.4E+14
1.2E+14
1.0E+14
8.0E+13
6.0E+13
4.0E+13
2.0E+13
0.0E+00
Conventional
Supply
Renewable energy supply
2005 2011 2017 2023 2029 2035 2041 2047 2053 2059 2065 2071 2077 2083 2089 2095

Current renewable energy growth rates exceed those required to transition to a fully renewable energy supply.
• 2004 investment in renewables ~
US $30 billion
• Investment in entire power generation sector
~ $150 billion
• Renewable energy capacity to 160 GW ~ 4% of global power.
http://www.ren21.net/globalstatusreport/RE2005_Global_Status_Report.pdf
http://www.earthscan.co.uk/news/article/mps/uan/508/v/3/sp/
IEA: http://www.oja-services.nl/iea-pvps/
AWEA: http://www.awea.org/pubs/documents/globalmarket2003.pdf

How should we invest the remaining fossil energy?
Energy
Input
Electrical
Generation
Coal
Nat. Gas
Energy
Output
Input
Liquid Fuel
Production
Ethanol
Output
Bio Diesel
Solar (PV)
Wind
(30 to 80 depending on site and technology)
Note: Coal and Natural Gas energy output limited to combustion efficiency at a maximum. Fuel supply, plant construction and decommissioning, and O&M energy uses reduce output below combustion efficiency. Solar, wind and bio can have terrestrial energy output greater than one since they are accessing solar energy entering the terrestrial system from the sun. See: http://www.awea.org/faq/bal.html
, http://www.ecotopia.com/apollo2/knapp/PVEPBTPaper.pdf

Wind
Solar Electric
Biomass
Solar Thermal
Percent of
Total
Annual Continuous
Output Equivalent
(kWh) (MW)
20% 1.2E+11
50% 2.9E+11
15% 8.8E+10
15% 8.8E+10
100% 5.9E+11
13,423
33,558
10,068
10,068
67,117
Notes:
This is a rough estimate, only intended to show magnitudes.
Wisconsin current electrical generation capacity ~12,000 MW.
Wind is not necessarily all located in Wisconsin.
Wind at 27% capacity factor.
Solar at 1250 kWh/yr per rated kW output.
Rated
Capacity
(MW)
49,716
235,178
10,068
70,553