Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Analysts: JeBang Ahn, Michael Chen, Brian Chung, Eric Sanchez, Sapan Shah Agenda • • • • • Case Overview Country Risk Analysis Company and Industry Overview Market Analysis Financial Analyses – – – – Ratios Discounted Cash Flows Comparable Companies Black-Scholes Options Pricing • Conclusions • Questions & Answers Case Overview “Things are not always as they seem” Managed Funds Performance • Mutual funds investing in technology and science stocks have plummeted 43% in 2002 Fund Marketocracy Tech Plus Jacob Internet Fund Franklin Cust Dyna A Fidelity Select Software Kinetics Internet A Kinetics Inet Emerg NL Matthews Asian A Tech Turner Energy&P Tech II W&R Adv Science & Tech A Wasatch Gl Science & Tech 2002 Returns -10.20% -13.00% -19.90% -23.40% -24.30% -24.70% -24.90% -26.60% -26.80% -27.80% Avg. science & tech fund -43.00% Source: Lipper Case Overview • Assist investment manager in determining whether to invest in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company – Is the current stock price an attractive entry level for investors? If so, – Decisions to make – invest in equity (Taiwan or ADR), or wait and purchase call options – Does the Shanghai foreign direct investment add to the Company’s intrinsic value? Agenda • • • • Case Overview Country Risk Analysis Company and Industry Overview Market Analysis Financial Analyses – – – – Ratios Discounted Cash Flows Comparable Companies Black-Scholes Options Pricing • Conclusions • Questions & Answers Taiwan Country Overview • Taiwan, Republic of China – Governmental System • Multiparty democratic regime headed by popularly-elected president (Chen Shui-bian) • Major Political parties are the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Kuomintang (KMT), and People First Party (PFP) – – – – – GDP: US$ 281,300 Million Current Account Balance: US$ 18,861 Million Foreign Reserves (excl. gold): US$ 122,211 Million External Debt: US$ 18,900 Million Inflation Rate: 0.5% - Figures for 2001 GDP Growth Export Partners Others, 38.10% US, 22.50% Hong Kong, 22.00% Netherlands, 3.40% Germany, 3.60% Japan, 10.40% Country Risk Analysis • Political – Alleviated political tension with Mainland China – Government (DPP) strongly advocates for foreign investment – Alliance between Kuomintang and People First Party looks promising in next Presidential election in 2004 • Economic – Strong Current Account Balance and Foreign Reserves – Free and liquid capital market with high trading volume – To stabilize market, daily price fluctuation is limited: • Stocks and convertible bonds: 7% • Bonds: 5% …of the closing price of the preceding business day Country Risk Analysis • Intangibles – Chairman/CEO Morris Chang • Advice is highly regarded and valued by the government as well as business sphere – In 1985, Taiwanese government recruited him to head its Industrial Technology Research Institute (ITRI) • • • • Ph.D in Electrical Engineering from Stanford University Masters in Mechanical Engineering from M.I.T. Board of Directors of Goldman Sachs Cognizant of corporate governance issues China Country Overview • China – Population: 1,273 Million – Governmental System • Communist State • President and vice president elected by the National People’s Congress for five-year terms (President Hu Jintao) – – – – – GDP: US$ 1,159,000 Million Current Account Balance: US$ 17,400 Million Foreign Reserves (excl. gold): US$ 215,600 Million External Debt: US$ 147,700 Million Inflation Rate: -0.8% (2002 E) - Figures for 2001 GDP Growth Export Partners Others, 29.30% US, 20.40% Singapore, 2.20% Hong Kong, 17.50% UK, 2.60% Netherlands, 2.70% Japan, 16.90% Germany, 3.70% South Korea, 4.70% Country Risk Analysis • Political – Admittance to WTO has led to further liberalization of rules and statutes – Current President Hu Jintao and his predecessor Jiang Zhemin have embraced western ideals (i.e. FDI) – “Roach Motel” – strict capital controls has created difficulty in ceasing operations if deemed unprofitable • Economic – Utilized considerable foreign reserves in maintaining a constant currency exchange rate – Focus on infrastructure development (soft-budget policy) – Currently improving Mergers & Acquisitions regulations Exchange Rate Stability Exchange Rate Fluctuation (RMB Per Unit Of Currency) 100.25 100.00 99.75 99.50 US Dollar HK Dollar 99.25 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Agenda • • • • Case Overview Country Risk Analysis Company and Industry Overview Market Analysis Financial Analyses – – – – Ratios Discounted Cash Flows Comparable Companies Black-Scholes Options Pricing • Conclusions • Questions & Answers Company Overview • Leading dedicated Integrated Circuit (IC) foundry – IC used for microprocessors, graphics chips, wireless communications platforms and programmable logic devices – Currently operates 7 wafer fabrication plants and 3 joint ventures • Major customers include: – Altera, Nvidia, Motorola, Texas Instruments, and others • Listed on: – Taiwan Stock Exchange (TW 2330) – New York Stock Exchange (NYSE: TSM ADR) Company Overview Company Overview • Sales – FY 2001 = 125,885 – FY 2002(E) = 158,645 – FY 2003(E) = 192,817 • Net Income – FY 2001 = 14,483 – FY 2002(E) = 22,755 – FY 2003(E) = 33,189 - Figures in New Taiwanese Dollars (Millions) Regional Sales Europe 6.0% Asia 26.6% USA 67.4% Industry Overview • Integrated circuits are semiconductor wafers containing resistors, capacitors, and transistors – Used for a variety of devices, including microprocessors, audio and video equipment, and automobiles • TSMC has grasped approx. 60% of IC market • Pure-play competitors’ market share: Industry Overview • Current state – Slow growth due to excess production in the late 1990’s, leading to high inventory levels – Scaled back capital expenditures – Pricing pressure due to market over-saturation – A leading source of growth is the wireless communications sector, which is a significant portion of the Company’s revenues Agenda • • • • Case Overview Country Risk Analysis Company and Industry Overview Market Analysis Financial Analyses – – – – Ratios Discounted Cash Flows Comparable Companies Black-Scholes Options Pricing • Conclusions • Questions & Answers 5-Year Stock Chart Earnings Per Share $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (E) 2003 (E) 2004 (E) Price/Earnings 100.00x 90.00x 80.00x 70.00x 60.00x 50.00x 40.00x 30.00x 20.00x 10.00x 0.00x 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 (E) 2003 (E) 2004 (E) Market Analysis • Book-to-Bill Ratio has been below one over the past year – Measures the orders shipped to new orders received – However, there are signs of life • Investor Sentiment – Suspicious in regards to high-technology stocks – Poor performance of competitors in the industry • Should the investment manager invest in the Company’s Common Stock or ADR? Taiwan Trading Volume 500,000 450,000 400,000 350,000 Volume 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 US Trading Volume 35,000,000 30,000,000 Volume 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 0 Jan-98 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Analyst Recommendations Broker Recommendations: This Month Strong Buy 3 Buy 4 Hold 0 Sell 1 Strong Sell 0 Mean* 1.85 * (Buy) 1.00 - 5.00 (Sell) Last Month 2 3 3 0 0 2 Months Ago 1 3 3 0 0 3 Months Ago 1 4 2 0 0 2.1 2.3 2.1 Agenda • • • • Case Overview Country Risk Analysis Company and Industry Overview Market Analysis Financial Analyses – – – – Ratios Discounted Cash Flows Comparable Companies Black-Scholes Options Pricing • Conclusions • Questions & Answers Ratios Risk Ratios Current Ratio Quick Ratio Accounts Receivable Turnover Inventory Turnover Debt/Equity Ratio Interest Coverage Ratio Profitability Ratio Profit Margin Return on Assets Return on Common Equity 1999 2.261 0.893 1.623 0.734 7.603 8.135 9.342 8.037 0.363 0.301 9.535 0.599 2000 1.965 2.298 1.389 1.955 8.232 9.147 9.018 8.291 0.216 0.183 24.519 21.757 2001 2.124 2.919 1.620 2.522 5.787 4.857 8.157 7.338 0.190 0.259 4.431 -0.104 1999 0.339 0.659 0.159 0.179 0.230 0.120 2000 0.404 0.469 0.222 0.237 0.314 0.243 2001 0.133 -0.023 0.046 -0.005 0.054 -0.011 Industry Sales Growth Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Winbond Electronics United Microelectronics Advanced Micro Devices Tower Seminconductor ASE Test Chartered Semiconductor ON Semiconductor Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Average (In $US Millions) 1999 2000 2001 CAGR 2,195.2 930.6 970.5 2,857.6 69.8 270.3 694.3 798.7 938.1 4,781.3 1,414.2 3,325.9 4,644.2 104.8 440.3 1,134.1 2,073.9 1,464.1 3,621.5 694.2 2,008.5 3,891.8 52.4 298.5 462.7 1,214.6 1,103.8 18.16% -9.30% 27.44% 10.84% -9.14% 3.37% -12.65% 15.00% 5.57% 5.48% Sales Growth Determination • Used a 4.70% growth rate for 2005-2007 – 2002-2004 I/B/E/S estimates relatively high, as Company benefits: • Status as industry leader • Continued trend towards outsourcing – Businesses expected to replace information technology components – High growth rate is not expected to continue: • Company already possesses a sizable portion of IC market • Industry consolidation is expected, increasing competition for a currently stagnant industry Pro Forma Cash Flows 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Revenues 166,198 125,885 158,645 192,817 248,116 259,777 271,987 284,770 Cost Of Goods Sold Cost Of Goods Sold Margin (89,682) 54.0% (92,228) 73.3% (116,229) 73.3% (141,265) 73.3% (181,779) 73.3% (187,299) 72.1% (193,111) 71.0% (197,915) 69.5% Operating Expenses: Research and development General and administrative Marketing Total Operating Expenses (5,132) (7,408) (2,682) (15,221) (10,649) (7,940) (2,290) (20,879) (13,420) (8,599) (2,886) (24,905) (16,311) (9,313) (3,508) (29,131) (20,989) (10,086) (4,514) (35,588) (21,975) (10,923) (4,726) (37,624) (23,008) (11,829) (4,948) (39,785) (24,090) (12,811) (5,181) (42,081) EBIT Depreciation & Amortization EBITDA Tax Benefit (Provision) Tax Shield On Facility Loan 61,295 (41,446) 102,741 1,168 - 12,778 (55,323) 68,101 3,741 - 17,510 (66,941) 84,451 4,714 - 22,421 (76,045) 98,465 5,730 - 30,748 (86,387) 117,135 7,373 2 34,854 (98,135) 132,989 7,719 2 39,091 (111,138) 150,229 8,082 2 44,774 (122,586) 167,359 8,462 2 Operating Cash Flow NetWorking Capital Capital Expenditures 103,909 (12,502) (2,107) 71,842 8,297 (5,121) 89,165 (4,149) (6,196) 104,195 (5,601) (7,039) 124,510 (19,004) (39,210) 140,711 (7,537) (9,083) 158,313 (8,072) (10,287) 175,823 (8,758) (11,346) 89,299 75,018 78,821 91,556 66,296 124,090 139,954 155,719 Free Cash Flow Note: Chinese Manufacturing Facility Assumed To Be Fully Operational By 2005. Shanghai Mfg. Facility • Will be used to manufacture 8-inch wafers – Cost of Goods Sold Implications – lower direct labor costs, tariff reductions and tax breaks • Cost of Factory = NT$ 31,214 Million • Sources of Funds: – Cash = NT$ 12,896 Million – Leverage = NT$ 14,530 Million – Retained Earnings = NT$ 3,789 Million • Exchange Ratio = 34.8 NT$/US$ • Assumptions: – Interest rate = Company’s Cost of Debt – Tax Rate = 15% International Cost of Capital • Goldman Integrated Model for Cost of Equity – US Risk-Free + Sovereign Yield Spread + Beta (World Historical Risk Premium) – Beta (ADR relative to S&P 500) = 0.9 – US Treasury 10-Yr Bond Yield = 3.96% – Taiwanese Government 10-Yr Bond = 2.16% – S&P 500 Historical Returns = 8.00% – Cost of Equity = 5.80% International Cost of Capital • Cost of Debt calculated through Altman Z-Score – – – – – Altman Z-Score: 3.25+6.56*X1+3.26*X2+6.72*X3+1.05*X4 X1 = Working Capital / Total Assets = 0.10 X2 = Retained Earnings / Total Assets = 0.10 X3 = EBIT / Total Assets = 0.03 X4 = Book Value / Total Liabilities = 3.11 • Comparable Bond Rating = AA+ Adjustment of Altman Score • No adjustment for foreign currency fluctuation – Low vulnerability of revenues (73.3% of revenues outside Asia) • No adjustment for industry risk – Very low leverage industry • No adjustment for competitive position – Leading player, but not considered dominant due to competition • +2 adjustment for Market vs. Book Value – Market Cap (NT$ 875,275 Million), Book Value (NT$ 295,853 Million) Adjustment of Altman Score • No bond specific adjustment – Some unsecured debt outstanding, but unsure about contingencies (collateral, guarantees) • No sovereign risk spread adjustment – Taiwanese yield slightly lower than comparable US Bond yield Debt Rating Conclusion • EM Adjustment suggests AAA • Company Rating on Taiwan Ratings Agency (Affiliate of Standard & Poor’s) = AA+ • We, conservatively, used AA+ as the credit rating for the Company • Cost of Debt = 3.06% – Taiwan Government 10-Yr Bond Yield = 2.16% – Bridge spread for AA+ Bond = .90% WACC Assumption • Weighted Average Cost of Capital = 5.28% • Assumptions: – Constant Debt/Equity Ratio of .19 – BV of Equity (from Company) = NT$ 295,853 Million – Projected Debt = NT$ 56,343 Million Discounted Cash Flows • Three cases: – Case 1: Precedent Transactions Multiple – Case 2: Technology Industry Multiple – Case 3: Gordon Growth Model Case 1 DCF • Used 3 mergers & acquisitions transactions to determine EBITDA Multiple to be applied – – – – Target companies integrated circuits manufacturers Min PP/EBITDA Multiple of 12.19x Implied value per share = NT$ 112.06 Implied value per share (ADR) = US$ 16.12 Target Dallas Semiconductor Telcom Semiconductor Jumptec Industrielle Computer Acquirer Maxim Integrated Products Microchip Technology Kontron AG Purchase Price / EBITDA 12.19x 17.94x 34.96x Case 2 DCF • Technology industry multiple used to calculated terminal value – Typical PP/EBITDA Multiple = 7.00x – Implied value per share = NT$ 75.95 – Implied value per share (ADR) = US$ 10.93 Case 3 DCF • Gordon Growth Model to calculate terminal value – – – – TV = FCF /(WACC – LT Growth) LT Growth Rate = 2% Implied value per share = NT$ 223.43 Implied value per share (ADR) = US$ 32.24 DCF Conclusion • DCF Range of Values: – Based on Taiwanese Stock: NT$ 75.95 – 223.43 – Based on US ADR: $10.93 – 32.24 • Current Price Per Share: – Taiwanese Exchange = NT$ 47.00 – New York Stock Exchange = $ 8.18 “The Force is strong with this one” - Star Wars Sensitivity Analyses Case 1: Discount Rate vs. Terminal Value Multiple 112.06 6.19x 9.19x 12.19x 15.19x 18.19x 21.19x 24.19x 3.28% 76.41 99.35 122.30 145.24 168.18 191.13 214.07 4.28% 73.32 95.18 117.05 138.91 160.77 182.64 204.50 5.28% 70.39 91.24 112.08 132.92 153.77 174.61 195.46 6.28% 67.62 87.50 107.38 127.26 147.14 167.03 186.91 7.28% 64.98 83.96 102.93 121.90 140.88 159.85 178.82 6.28% 66.36 69.67 72.98 76.30 79.61 82.92 7.28% 63.78 66.95 70.11 73.27 76.43 79.59 Case 2: Discount Rate vs. Terminal Value Multiple 76.00 6.00x 6.50x 7.00x 7.50x 8.00x 8.50x 3.28% 74.96 78.78 82.61 86.43 90.25 94.08 4.28% 71.93 75.58 79.22 82.87 86.51 90.15 5.28% 69.07 72.54 76.02 79.49 82.97 86.44 Sensitivity Analyses Case 3: Discount Rate vs. LT Growth 224.14 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.28% 285.03 341.16 428.83 584.98 941.33 4.28% 207.60 234.94 272.13 325.62 409.16 5.28% 162.63 178.43 198.41 224.48 259.93 6.28% 133.28 143.38 155.60 170.67 189.73 7.28% 112.63 119.54 127.64 137.28 148.94 Comparable Companies Price/Earnings Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Winbond Electronics United Microelectronics Advanced Micro Devices Tower Seminconductor ASE Test Chartered Semiconductor ON Semiconductor Advanced Semiconductor Engineering Max Mean Median Min Price/Book Price/Sales EV/EBITDA 60.43x NM NM NM NM NM NM NM NM 3.16x 0.94x 0.05x 0.63x 0.48x 0.49x 0.59x NM 0.21x 6.95x 2.59x 0.15x 0.57x 2.31x 0.98x 2.03x 0.20x 0.23x 13.06x NM 0.46x 3.01x NM 3.78x 16.56x 19.07x 4.25x NM NM NM NM 3.16x 0.73x 0.54x 0.05x 6.95x 1.78x 0.98x 0.15x 19.07x 6.69x 4.25x 0.46x Conclusion • Multiples serve as a testament to the relative strength of the Company – TSMC at the higher end of each respective multiple – Market price may be high, relative to competitors, as investors recognize: • Robust Cash Flows, Revenues and Balance Sheet • Company as industry leader Multiple Price / Book Price / Sales Enterprise Value / EBITDA Range of Values 0.05x – 3.16x Price range: NT$ 0.73 – 47.00 Mean: 10.83 0.15x – 6.95x Price range: 1.01 – 47.00 Mean: 12.03 0.46x – 19.07x EV range: 1.68 – 69.73 Mean: 24.45 Black-Scholes Pricing Assumptions: Current Stock Price (S) Exercise Price (E) Yrs. Till Exp. (t) $ 7.75 7.50 0.33 Intinsic Value of Call: Call Price $ 0.35 d1 1.81 d2 1.78 10-Yr Treasury 3.96% NormDist(d1) 0.965 Variance 0.20% NormDist(d2) 0.963 Prevailing Market Call Price Formulas: a. Call Price = [S * NormDist(d1)] - [E * e(-rt) * NormDist(d2)] b. d1 = [ln(S/E) + t * (r + .5(Var))] / (Var * t).5 c. d2 = d1 - (Var * t).5 $ 0.95 Agenda • • • • • Case Overview Country Risk Analysis Company and Industry Overview Market Analysis Financial Analyses – – – – Ratios Discounted Cash Flows Comparable Companies Black-Scholes Options Pricing Conclusions • Questions & Answers Insight / Take Home Points • Investors should not be averse towards investing in a particular sector/industry – Due Diligence – Use of various methodologies to evaluate equity • Ride the wave – Investment in technology companies could be a profitable venture in the long run • If there is the potential to make “a killing,” pull the trigger Insight / Take Home Points • “…從過去的財報數字中,我們從巴菲特 (Warren Buffet) 選股邏輯的複式篩選,選 出了下列完全符合條件的八檔公司,其中 前五名包括有億豐、中華、台積電、裕隆、 寶成…” • “…By using Warren Buffet’s highly-regarded methodology, TSMC will be selected as one of the eight companies to invest in Taiwan.” - Taiwan Economic Information Co. Insight / Take Home Points Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company “Will Be Back!!!” Q & A Session