Yield-X: The Market Works The workings of the Yield-X yield curves, products and Calm margining system. Rogan Etheredge 07 February 2005 Programme • Introduction to Yield-X • Yield curves • Products • Margining Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 2 Yield-X Products • • • • • • • • • jBonds: liquid RSA bonds (in Govi) jCarries: 1 and 13 weeks on jBonds jFutures: futures on jBonds jTRIs and jGOVI: futures on Total Return Indices jSwaps: bond lookalike swaps jRods: swaps against overnight interest rate jNotes: futures on notional swaps jFRAs: futures on FRAs / Jibar jOptions: options on all futures Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 3 Yield-X Products Physical Futures Underlying: R194, R153, R201, R157, R203, R186 jBonds jFutures jCarries jGOVI Real and notional interest rate swaps on Jibar and RODI jSwaps jNotes jRods jFRAs jOptions Implicit mark-to-market Quant Financial Research Explicit mark-to-market 06 Feb 2005 4 Explicit mark-to-market Loss Profit Total margin Market and Position Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 5 Implicit mark-to-market Loss Profit Unrealised loss Total margin Market Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 Position 6 Trading on Yield-X • Screen-based central order book • Yield to three decimal places (1/10th basis point) • Central counterparty: – settlement guaranteed – margining • Report-only trades: – derivatives fall within risk positions and are guaranteed – jBonds only if both Clearing members agree Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 7 Mark-to-market Closing yields Quant Financial Research Yield curves Market yields 06 Feb 2005 Futures and options Mark to market 8 Margining All positions All instruments: full offset. Estimate maximum loss which position can suffer: next 24 hours, 99.95% confidence. Loss is potential exposure of the Exchange: take the amount in margin now! Margin earns interest at wholesale rates; re-estimated daily; returned when position is closed. Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 9 Daily cashflows • • • • • • • Explicit mark-to-markets Change in margin Settlements of spot bonds Net interest payments on jSwaps and jRods Conversion payments Interest on margin Booking fees Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 10 Yield curve methodology • BEASSA • Perfect fit • Available on website daily to 30 years Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 11 Four curves • Yield-X Curve – RODI, 3 mth Jibar, jFRAs, jNotes • jBonds curve – RODI, 1 and 13 week jCarries, jBonds • jSwaps curve – RODI, 3 mth Jibar, jSwaps • jRods curve – RODI, jRods Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 12 Spreads • Market price paramount • Instruments in generating set have zero spreads • Others have spreads calculated so that the Curve + Spread prices them back to the market • Instruments without market prices priced off their curve, using their latest recorded spread Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 13 Use of curves • Market information • Pricing illiquid instruments • Resets • Close-out prices of jFRAs and jNotes • Margining Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 14 jBonds • • • • • • R194, R153, R201, R157, R203, R186 Quoted on yield to maturity Bond pricing formula ("BPF") Spot: t+3 Forward: settlement date by agreement On-screen through central order book: – included in Risk Positions; – settlement guaranteed • Report only: – both Clearing Members must explicitly agree • Guaranteed forwards subject to yield resets • Settlement margins Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 15 jCarries • On all jBonds • 1st leg settled on t+3 – priced at current market price, using BPF • 2nd leg settled 1week or 13 weeks after t+3 • Quoted on carry rate as a simple yield between settlement dates – quoted rate converted to ccr to find price of 2nd leg • jCarries are on-screen through the central order book: – included in risk positions – settlement of both legs guaranteed • 2nd leg subject to yield resets • Settlement margins Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 16 jFutures • • • • • • • • On all jBonds Expire 1st business Thursday of Feb, May, Aug and Nov Physically settled on t+3 of expiry date Quoted on yield to maturity Priced using BPF for settlement date Settlement guaranteed Settlement margins Safex positions will be carried over to Yield-X Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 17 jSwaps • Bond lookalike swaps on all jBonds – j194, j153, j201, j157, j203, j186 • • • • • • • • • Expire on parent bonds' (mid) redemption dates Semi-annual interest payments on same days as parent bonds' Floating rate is 3-mth Jibar, compounded at mid interest period Quoted on fixed rate: yield for the period Standard fixed rate, reset on interest payment dates (or when market has moved) to market rate, rounded to 25 bps Dealt positions are converted to the standard rate Conversion payments: PV off jSwaps Curve (+ spread) of difference in fixed interest payments Interest payments net through the Exchange Guaranteed by the Exchange Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 18 jSwap Interest Calculations Floating interest payments at f (known or implied) L 100 1 fi1 Ti t i1 1 fi 2 t i Ti 1 X 100 x t i t i1 Fixed interest payments at x 3-mth Jibar: f i1 Last interest date, di-1,ti-1 Quant Financial Research 3-mth Jibar: f i2 Mid-period reset date, Di,Ti 06 Feb 2005 Next interest date, di,ti 19 jSwap Equation n z1 t 1 V N 1 f1 T1 t 0 1 f 2 t 1 T1 e x t i t i 1 e z i t i e z n t n i 1 Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 20 jRods • • • • • • • • • • Swaps of floating RODI against fixed 3-mth rate Expire monthly on last business day of each month Quarterly interest payments on last business day of month Floating rate is jRODI (RODI converted from nacm to nacd), compounded daily Quoted on fixed rate: yield for the period Standard fixed rate, reset on interest payment dates (or when market has moved) to market rate, rounded to 25 bps Dealt positions are converted to the standard rate Conversion payments: PV off jRods Curve (+ spread) of difference in fixed interest payments Interest payments net through the Exchange Guaranteed by the Exchange Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 21 jRod Interest Calculations Floating interest payments at f (known or implied) m1 f L 100 1 j 1 365 j0 X 100 x t i t i1 Fixed interest payments at x jRODIs: f j j: 0 1 2 3 … j Last interest date, di-1,ti-1 Quant Financial Research m1m Next interest date, di,ti 06 Feb 2005 22 The jRod Equation n l 1 fj Z1 T1 zi t i zn t n V N 1 365 e x t i t i 1 e e i 1 j 0 Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 23 jNotes • Futures on notional swaps • Expire 1st business Thursday of Feb, May, Aug and Nov • Swaps are for 2, 5 and 10 years from expiry date • Quarterly interest payments on 1bThu 2, 5, 8, 11 cycle • Floating rate is 3-mth Jibar • Quoted on fixed rate: yield for the period • Marked-to-market at closing fixed rate • Cash settled on expiry off the Yield-X Curve Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 24 jNote Interest Calculations Floating interest payments at f (known or implied) L 100 fi ti t i1 X 100 x t i t i1 Fixed interest payments at x 3-mth Jibar: f i Last interest date, di-1,ti-1 Quant Financial Research Next interest date, di,ti 06 Feb 2005 25 jFRAs • Futures on FRAs / Jibar • Expire 1st business Thursday of Feb, May, Aug and Nov • FRA interest payment date is 3 months from expiry on 1bThu 2, 5, 8, 11 cycle • Floating rate is 3-mth Jibar • Quoted on fixed rate: yield for the period • Marked-to-market at closing fixed rate • Cash settled on expiry off the Yield-X Curve / 3 mth Jibar Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 26 jFRA Interest Calculations Floating interest payment at f (known or implied) L 100 f1 t1 t0 X 100 x t1 t0 Fixed interest payment at x 3-mth Jibar: f 1 Contact expiry date, d0,t0 Quant Financial Research Interest date, d1,t1 06 Feb 2005 27 jOptions • • • • • • • • • • • • On all futures contracts American calls and puts Expire on underlying future's expiry date Strike prices in same units as future's quote Each option on one futures contract Fully margined: premium not paid up-front, but realised over the life of the option through the mark-to-market process Naked options traded on price Options with delta traded on volatility Early exercise allowed but never optimal Automatic exercise of options more than 2.5% in the money on expiry Long options may be abandoned Pricing via Modified Black Option Formula Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 28 Volatilities and Skews • Time structure: each expiry has its own atm vol • Skew: Moneyedness grid defines additive skew for various degrees of moneyedness: Vol = Atm Vol + S[Moneyedness] • Grid and atm vol found by weighted linear regressions of traded volatilities: – weight by vega * number of options – atm vol also weighted by time since trade – historical trades also brought forward, with decay factor • Manual override possible Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 29 Yield-X Margining • Comprehensive • All-embracing • Logical • Margining Calm Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 30 Two prerequisites • Logical: all interest rate instruments may be valued by reference to a single construct: The yield curve • Technical: the existence of reliable yield curves Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 31 The two stages of margining Historical market data Mark-tomarket data for the day Margining Factors Program Positions of participants Margin Calculator Margining Statistical analysis of historical data to create margining factors factors Calculation of value-at-risk of positions Margins of participants Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 32 Data • Zero coupon yield curves from 08 May 2002: 685 days – Data cleaned – Extend backwards – Yield-X Curve when available • 1d, 1w, 1m, 3m-12m, 18m-60m, 6y-30y Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 33 Historical yields Historical Yields 14.0 13.0 12.0 Yield (ccr) 11.0 1d 60m 30.00y 10.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 08-May-02 Quant Financial Research 08-Nov-02 08-May-03 06 Feb 2005 08-Nov-03 08-May-04 34 Yield changes • Compare today’s yields with yesterday’s forwards one day • Log of ratio • Basic unit: Trading day Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 35 Yield changes – 1d rates LPR1 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% -4.0% 1d -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% -14.0% -16.0% 08-May-02 Quant Financial Research 08-Nov-02 08-May-03 06 Feb 2005 08-Nov-03 08-May-04 36 Yield changes – 60m rates LPR15 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 60m -1.0% -2.0% -3.0% -4.0% 08-May-02 Quant Financial Research 08-Nov-02 08-May-03 06 Feb 2005 08-Nov-03 08-May-04 37 Yield changes – 30y rates LPR40 8.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% -2.0% 30.00y -4.0% -6.0% -8.0% -10.0% -12.0% 08-May-02 Quant Financial Research 08-Nov-02 08-May-03 06 Feb 2005 08-Nov-03 08-May-04 38 30 day exponential weighting 30 day Exponential Weights 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 13-Jun-03 13-Jul-03 Quant Financial Research 12-Aug-03 11-Sep-03 11-Oct-03 10-Nov-03 10-Dec-03 06 Feb 2005 09-Jan-04 08-Feb-04 09-Mar-04 39 750 day exponential weighting 750 day Exponential Weights 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 13-Jun-03 13-Jul-03 Quant Financial Research 12-Aug-03 11-Sep-03 11-Oct-03 10-Nov-03 10-Dec-03 06 Feb 2005 09-Jan-04 08-Feb-04 09-Mar-04 40 Double exponential weighting Double Exponential Weights 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 w1 750 day 0.5 Combined 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 13-Jun-03 13-Jul-03 Quant Financial Research 12-Aug-03 11-Sep-03 11-Oct-03 10-Nov-03 10-Dec-03 06 Feb 2005 09-Jan-04 08-Feb-04 09-Mar-04 41 Vols – 1d 1d Vols: alpha = 0.7 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% xVol30 xVol750 xVol 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 08-May-02 Quant Financial Research 08-Nov-02 08-May-03 06 Feb 2005 08-Nov-03 08-May-04 42 Vols – 60m 60m Vols: alpha = 0.7 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% xVol30 xVol750 xVol 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 08-May-02 Quant Financial Research 08-Nov-02 08-May-03 06 Feb 2005 08-Nov-03 08-May-04 43 Vols – 30y 30.00y Vols: wt = 0.7 50.0% 45.0% 40.0% 35.0% 30.0% yVol30 yVol750 yVol 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% 08-May-02 Quant Financial Research 08-Nov-02 08-May-03 06 Feb 2005 08-Nov-03 08-May-04 44 Correlations: 1d vs 30y Corrs: 1d vs 30.00y; Wt = 0.7 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 Corr30 Corr750 Corr 0.00 -0.20 -0.40 -0.60 -0.80 -1.00 08-05-02 Quant Financial Research 08-11-02 08-05-03 06 Feb 2005 08-11-03 08-05-04 45 Principal Components Analysis • “The curse of dimensionality” • PCA reduces it: – – – – – Find variance / covariance matrix for latest day Find its eigenvectors: the components First n eigenvectors: the principal components Eigenvalues are variances of components First n account for most of the variance Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 46 Vols: Curves and Components Volatilities: Bondsbd (Swaps): 04-Jun-04 (67.3%, 84.1%, 91.8%, 97.2%, 98.9%) 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% PCs Ycs 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 47 First component The First Component: 68% 1.5% 1.0% Yield %age change 0.5% PC1 PC2 PC3 PC4 PC5 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Term Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 48 Second component The Second Component: 16% 1.5% 1.0% Yield %age change 0.5% PC1 PC2 PC3 PC4 PC5 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Term Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 49 Third component The Third Component: 8.5% 1.5% 1.0% Yield %age change 0.5% PC1 PC2 PC3 PC4 PC5 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Term Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 50 Fourth component The Fourth Component: 5% 1.5% 1.0% Yield %age change 0.5% PC1 PC2 PC3 PC4 PC5 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Term Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 51 Fifth component The Fifth Component: 1.5% 1.5% 1.0% Yield %age change 0.5% PC1 PC2 PC3 PC4 PC5 0.0% -0.5% -1.0% -1.5% 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 Term Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 52 Construct historical components 1 n 1 1 n 1 1 1 1 Yield changes * n n Eigen matrix = Historical component changes n m Quant Financial Research n 06 Feb 2005 53 Vols - PC1 PC1 Vols: alpha = 0.7 140.0% 120.0% 100.0% 80.0% xVol30 xVol750 xVol 60.0% 40.0% 20.0% 0.0% 08-May-02 Quant Financial Research 08-Nov-02 08-May-03 06 Feb 2005 08-Nov-03 08-May-04 54 PC3: Yield Changes pc3 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 14 Jun 02: +100 pts 10.0% 13 Sep 02: +100 pts 5.0% 0.0% pc3 -5.0% 12 Dec 03: -50 pts 15 Aug 03: -100 pts -10.0% -15.0% 13 Jun 03: -150 pts -20.0% 11 Sep 03: -100 pts 06 Feb 2005 08-Apr-04 08-Mar-04 08-Feb-04 08-Jan-04 08-Dec-03 08-Nov-03 08-Sep-03 08-Aug-03 08-Jul-03 08-Jun-03 08-May-03 08-Apr-03 08-Mar-03 08-Feb-03 08-Jan-03 08-Dec-02 08-Nov-02 08-Oct-02 08-Sep-02 08-Aug-02 08-Jul-02 08-Jun-02 08-May-02 Quant Financial Research 08-Oct-03 17 Oct 03: -150 pts -25.0% 55 Vols – PC3 PC3 Vols: wt = 0.7 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% yVol30 yVol750 yVol 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% 0.0% 08-May-02 Quant Financial Research 08-Nov-02 08-May-03 06 Feb 2005 08-Nov-03 08-May-04 56 Correlations: PC1 vs PC3 Corrs: PC1 vs PC3; Wt = 0.7 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 Corr30 Corr750 Corr 0.00 -0.20 -0.40 -0.60 -0.80 -1.00 08-05-02 Quant Financial Research 08-11-02 08-05-03 06 Feb 2005 08-11-03 08-05-04 57 PC1 distribution PC1 Vol = 77.6%; Skew = 0.07; Kurt = 11.2 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -32.7% -28.8% Quant Financial Research -24.9% -21.0% -17.1% -13.1% -9.2% -5.3% -1.4% 2.5% 06 Feb 2005 6.4% 10.4% 14.3% 18.2% 22.1% 26.0% 29.9% 33.9% 58 PC1: Smoothed distribution Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 59 ReproBars • Choose 5 percentile ranges: – 5%, 25%, 40%, 25%, 5% – Find expected value in each range from smoothed distribution • Get a discrete distribution with just 5 points Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 60 PC5: Reprobars PC5: 5-bar repro -4.0% -3.3% Quant Financial Research -2.7% -2.0% -1.3% -0.6% 0.03% 0.7% 06 Feb 2005 1.4% 2.1% 2.7% 3.4% 61 Construction of scenario curves • All 5*5*5*5*5 = 3125 combinations of 5 abscissae/ordinates from 5 PC distributions • Each combination is a set of 5 independent component changes, and has its own probability • Apply the changes to the base curve to get 3125 scenario curves, each with its own probability. Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 62 Valuation of positions • Value position 3125 times, to get 3125 values, each with its own probability • Smooth the resulting distribution • Find EWCV at .05% over 1 trading day Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 63 Expected worst case value P&L Distribution ETL: expected loss, given that loss is more than .05% Cuttoff: .05% -4 Quant Financial Research -3 -2 -1 0 06 Feb 2005 1 2 3 4 64 Margin "On the one day in 2,000 when things are really bad, just how bad are they likely to be?" Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 65 Calm Results • Assumptions: – – – – – Positions as at 28 Jan 2005 Yield curve and bond yields as at same date Settlement day is 02 Feb 2005 Margining valuations for 31 Jan 2005 Margins calculated as the one-trading-day Value-at-Risk (VAR) of the position at 99.95% confidence level Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 66 Physical Bonds • (NB: settlement margins are ignored. Once a deal has been irrevocably committed to, it falls out of the risk position.) Instrument Spot R153 Spot R157 Spot R186 Quant Financial Research Position +R1m -R1m +R1m -R1m +R1m -R1m 06 Feb 2005 Margin 15,806 17,665 28,470 30,507 49,029 51,378 67 Forward Bonds Instrument R153 Quant Financial Research Settlement Position 04-May-2005 +R1m -R1m 02-Feb-2006 +R1m -R1m 06 Feb 2005 Margin 15,985 17,692 14,344 15,415 68 Carries Instrument R153 R153 Settlement 02-Feb-2005 09-Feb-2005 Position -R1m +R1m R153 R153 02-Feb-2005 02-Feb-2006 -R1m +R1m Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 Margin 101 4,318 69 Compound Spot Position Instrument R153 R157 R186 Quant Financial Research Settlement 02-Feb-2005 02-Feb-2005 02-Feb-2005 06 Feb 2005 Position -R1m +R2m -R1m Margin 16,443 70 Positions with Futures Instrument Settlement May 05 R153 May 05 R153 Spot R153 02-May-2005 Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 Position -1 -1 +R1m Margin 18,087 669 71 Positions with jSwaps Instrument Settlement j153 7.5 swap j153 7.5 swap May 05 R153 Quant Financial Research Position +R1m +R1m 1 06 Feb 2005 Margin 15,743 3,268 72 jNotes Instrument May 05 jN02 Position +1 Margin 6,642 Aug 05 jN05 +1 13,777 Nov 05 jN10 +1 22,251 Quant Financial Research Settlement 06 Feb 2005 73 Distribution of Scenario Values Scenario Values: May 05 jN02 (6,923 (6,091 (5,259 Quant Financial Research (4,427 (3,595 (2,762 (1,930 (1,098 (266) 566 1,399 06 Feb 2005 2,231 3,063 3,895 4,727 5,560 6,392 7,224 74 Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 13 ,6 09 11 ,9 62 10 ,3 14 6 8, 66 8 7, 01 0 5, 37 2 3, 72 4 2, 07 6 42 2) ,2 2 (1 9) ,8 6 (2 7) ,5 1 (4 5) ,1 6 (6 3) ,8 1 (7 1) ,4 6 (9 ) 1, 10 9 (1 ) ) 2, 75 7 (1 4, 40 5 (1 Scenario Values: jN05 Scenario Values: Aug 05 jN05 75 Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 23 ,3 92 20 ,6 39 17 ,8 85 15 ,1 32 12 ,3 78 5 9, 62 1 6, 87 8 4, 11 4 1, 36 9) ,3 8 (1 3) ,1 4 (4 6) ,8 9 (6 0) ,6 5 (9 ) 2, 40 3 (1 ) ) 5, 15 7 (1 7, 91 0 (1 ) ) 0, 66 4 (2 3, 41 7 (2 Scenario Values: jN10 Scenario Values: Nov 05 jN10 76 jFRAs Instrument May 05 jFRA Settlement Position +1 Margin 751 May 06 jFRA +1 1,052 Nov 06 jFRA +1 1,034 Quant Financial Research 06 Feb 2005 77 jRods Instrument Jun 05 jRod Settlement Jan 06 jRod Quant Financial Research Position +R1m +R1m 06 Feb 2005 Margin 1,007 2,939 78 jGovi Instrument Settlement May 05 jGOVI Position +1 Margin 30,307 May 05 jGOVI R152 R194 R153 R201 R157 R203 R186 +100 -R14m -R39m -R55m -R14m -R30m -R3m -R17m 39,578 Quant Financial Research 02-Feb-2005 02-Feb-2005 02-Feb-2005 02-Feb-2005 02-Feb-2005 02-Feb-2005 02-Feb-2005 06 Feb 2005 79 Questions