Name:
Hour:
AP American Government
Unit 2 Assignments:
Ch. 4 American Political Culture
Ch. 7 Public Opinion
Ch. 8 Political Participation
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Chapter 4 (all) and 7 (158-end) overview: Political Beliefs and Behavior
Vocabulary
Political Culture
Civic duty
Civic competence
Class consciousness
Orthodox
Progressive
Political efficacy
Internal efficacy
External efficacy
Political socialization
Elite
Gender gap
Political ideology
Political elites
Chapter 4
1. What did Alexis de Tocqueville say about the United States?
2. Analyze American political culture.
3. Explain how Americans view the political system using the five italicized words on 77.
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4. Since we have a common political culture, how does the author explain that we do things inconsistent
with this culture?
5. Also, since we have a common political culture- why do we fight with each other?
6. Make a list of attributes to describe the American view of our economic system.
7. Fill in the table below to compare the political culture (political system, economic system and the civic
role of religion) of the United States with other countries. You will have a lot in the US column, so write
small!!
The United States
Sweden
Japan
Great Britain
8. How has religion been intertwined in American politics?
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9. Where does American political culture come from? (page 84-86)
10. Below the terms “orthodox” and “progressive,” list where each stands on the issues as explained on
pages 86-87.
Orthodox
Progressive
11. Analyze how each event below altered American faith in their government.
A. Nixon resignation
B. Clinton impeachment
C. Eisenhower administration
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D. 1960s and 1970s
E. 9/11
12. Explain what political efficacy is and give examples.
13. Summarize the section on political tolerance. Why do you think this is an important aspect of American
democracy?
Chapter 7 (starting at page 158)
1. Define political socialization in your own words and then describe the ways Americans are socialized.
a. family
b. religion
c. gender
d. school/media
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2. Explain what it means to have a cleavage in public opinion.
3. List some common political cleavages in the United States.
4. Compare and contrast the cleavage of social class in America with that of race and ethnicity.
5. Describe how region impacts political attitudes and cultures.
6. What is political ideology? How do we use it?
7. Explain the difference between a “liberal” and a “conservative” according to your book.
8. Explain what each of the following terms mean.
a. Pure liberal
b. Pure conservative
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c. Libertarian
d. Populists
9. What is a political elite? Who would be included in this group?
10. Summarize the section: Political Elites, Public Opinion and Public Policy
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Practice Qs: The following Qs will look very similar to the Qs you’ll see on your quiz. See how you do!
1. Which of the following statements about the U.S. democratic republic is correct?
a. It has never been tried elsewhere.
b. It thrived in the United States despite the existence of a feudal aristocracy.
c. It thrived in the United States despite the large number of legal restraints on it.
d. It emphasizes social equality over personal liberty.
e. It has been tried without great success by many other countries.
2. The text argues that the democratic political culture of Sweden differs from that of the United
States because the Swedes
a. integrate religion more successfully into their politics.
b. insist on greater citizen participation in government.
c. allow greater economic inequalities to exist.
d. resist tendencies toward socialism.
e. are more deferential than participatory in their politics.
3. Which of the following most accurately describes the orthodox view in the culture war?
a. Morality is more important than self-expression and is based on unchanging rules from God.
b. Personal freedom is more important than tradition, and the rules for morality vary with
circumstances.
c. Morality is more important than self-expression, and the rules vary with circumstances.
d. Personal freedom is more important than tradition, and morality is based on unchanging rules
from God.
e. Morality is irrelevant to personal freedom, even when there are objective standards by which
to judge.
4. A majority agrees that a moment of silence should be allowed in public schools if one examines
the opinions of
a. the general public.
b. Catholics.
c. Evangelicals.
d. Jews.
e. a, b, and c.
5. Which of the following statements is incorrect?
a. From the mid-1920s to the mid-1960s, Americans went to college in record numbers.
b. Much research indicates higher levels of liberalism are associated with higher levels of
education.
c. Higher levels of conservatism were more prominent among those from more prestigious
colleges.
d. Increased schooling has been associated with increased voting.
e. Increased schooling has been associated with increased political activity.
Answers: 1-E, 2-E, 3-A, 4-E, 5-C
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QW: What is a political ideology? Why do you think ideology is so important in politics? Can they be
misleading?
Using your book, “Philosophical Differences,” class set of article on philosophies and Kaplan handout, fill out
chart (4 total resources-not located in this packet). X=do not fill out this box.
Ideology
Textbook definition
“Power and
Choice”
Classic liberalism
Economic:
Kaplan handout
X
Philosophical Differences
Modern liberals:
Social:
American liberalism
Economic:
Social:
Communism
Economic:
X
X
Social:
Socialism
Economic:
X
Social:
Fascism
Economic:
X
X
X
Social:
Libertarianism
Economic:
X
Social:
Populism
Economic:
X
Social:
American
conservatism
Economic:
Social:
Classic conservatism
Economic:
Modern conservatives:
X
Social:
Review QW:
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Describe a typical American liberal (democrat):
Describe a typical American conservative (republican):
The Political Spectrum Power Point notes:
Details, details, details
The olden days
John Locke, Adam Smith, Thomas Paine
Classic liberalism: Born out of ____________________
Freedom and liberty
____________________________________________
Live to our fullest potential
People are responsible for their own actions
Little to no government involvement
Think: _______________________________________
Early in republic: local control, independence
Socialism
Eugene Debs
People aren’t individuals: ________________________
Responding to liberalism and the industrial revolution
Oppressed workers are being ______________________
Government, controlled by workers, can control the
economy, education
_________________________________
Socialist-democracy
Communism
Socialism plus revolutionary
Edmund Burke, Herbert Spencer
Classic Conservatism: Responded to revolution
Save _____________________________________
Support the state, the lower classes, aristocracy
____________________________________________
People should work as a group
Order, common values, stable
Powerful help the weak
Unfamiliar to Americans!!
____________________________________________
Early in the republic: wanted a more centralized system
Fascism
_________________________________________
racism, nationalism
Right wing? Large military
Anti- intellectual
State controls private industry (___________________)
War based
American political spectrum:
Social Left (liberal) less government
Social Right (conservative)  more government
Economic left (liberal)  more government
Economic right (conservative) less government
American views
Both are born out of classic liberalism
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American Liberals (Democrats)
• ___________________________
(liberal in economic and social policies)
• Lots of ____________
• Lots of ____________
• Help EVERYONE
• More economic equality
• “People are good”?
Stay out of social stuff?
Young, college educated, nonreligious
History:
Democratic Party
Began: local (Jefferson- Democratic Republicans)
(small gov)
Civil War: Supported States’ rights
Adopted Populist sentiments (more government…)
Progressivism
New Deal
(big gov)
Civil Rights Act
__________________________
American Conservatives (Republicans)
• _________________________________
(conservative on economic and social policies)
• Low taxes (keep what you earn)
• People should ___________________
• Free market
• ______________________________
• ”People are born bad”?
Involved in social stuff?
Older, white, higher incomes, Midwest
History:
Republican Party
Began: national (Federalists, whigs)
(big gov)
Civil War: Supported national agenda
Dixiecrats (shifting of the South)
(small gov, more moral intervention)
Barry Goldwater (1964)
Conservative coalition
Against the _______________________
Devolution
Reagan’s policies
Moral Majority
Populism
Liberal on economic matters
Conservative on social matters
United States based
More likely to be: older, poorly educated, low
income, religious, South or Midwest
Libertarianism
Conservative on economic matters
Liberal on social matters
Small, weak government
Ideal republic: Freedom
Privacy and free speech
More likely to be: young, college educated, white,
higher incomes, less religion, West
AP Government Spectrum Assignment
You, with others, are asked to do the following:







Choose an issue from the list below (These are issues that society tries to deal with, but has conflicting
viewpoints about how it should be handled…for example: abortion).
Two people in the group will represent American conservatives, and the others will represent
American liberals. (or one conservative and one liberal)
Using your issue, create a skit or a debate that shows what each ideology would say about your issue
(use attached notes for details).
Create a script about what you will each say…one/group.
Come and present your skit to the class. You may use your script, but you will hand it in when
finished. You will earn 5 points individually for addressing your ideology and for participating.
Extra points for creativity and flair.
As others present, you will listen, and mark on your attached notes where you stand on the issue
(comes in handy later). You can star/circle the side that you tend to be on for EACH issue presented.
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My issue is_______________________________
Very important note-not every conservative or liberal fit perfectly into their “category”. We are all individuals
with slightly different versions of the ideas listed below.
Issue
American Liberal beliefs/attitudes
American Conservative beliefs/attitudes
A fetus is not a human life.
Human life begins at conception. Abortion is the murder of
Abortion
The decision to have an abortion is a personal choice
of a woman regarding her own body and the
government should stay out of it. Women should be
guaranteed the right to a safe and legal abortion,
including partial birth abortion.
Affirmative
Action
Death
Penalty
The
Economy
The
Environment
Gun Control
Healthcare
Due to prevalent racism in the past, minorities were
deprived of the same education and employment
opportunities as whites. We need to make up for that.
Support affirmative action based on the belief that
America is still a racist society. Minorities still lag
behind whites in all statistical measurements of
success. Also, the presence of minorities creates
diversity.
We should abolish the death penalty. The death
penalty is inhumane and is ‘cruel and unusual'
punishment. It does not deter crime. Imprisonment is
the appropriate punishment. Every execution risks
killing an innocent person.
Favor a market system in which government regulates
the economy. We need government to protect us
against big businesses. Unlike the private sector, the
government is motivated by public interest. We need
government regulation to level the playing field.
a human being. Nobody has the right to murder a human
being.
Support legislation to prohibit partial birth abortions, called
the "Partial Birth Abortion Ban" (partial birth abortion - the
killing of an unborn baby of at least 20 weeks by pulling it
out of the birth canal with forceps, but leaving the head
inside. An incision is made in the back of the baby's neck
and the brain tissue is suctioned out. The head is then
removed from the uterus.)
People should be admitted to schools and hired for jobs
based on their ability. It is unfair to use race as a factor in
the selection process. Reverse-discrimination is not a
solution for racism.
The death penalty is a punishment that fits the crime; it is
neither ‘cruel' nor ‘unusual'. Executing a murderer is the
appropriate punishment for taking an innocent life.
The free market system, competitive capitalism, and private
enterprise afford the widest opportunity and the highest
standard of living for all. Free markets produce more
economic growth, more jobs and higher standards of living
than those systems burdened by excessive government
regulation.
Conservatives don't care about protecting the
environment.
Industrial growth harms the environment.
Desire clean water, clean air and a clean planet, just like
everyone else. However, extreme environmental policies
destroy jobs and damage the economy.
Global warming is caused by an increased production
of carbon dioxide. The U.S. is a major contributor to
global warming because it produces 25% of the
world's carbon dioxide. The U.S. should enact laws to
significantly reduce that amount.
The Second Amendment gives no individual the right
to own a gun, but allows the state to keep a militia
(National Guard). Guns kill people. Guns kill
children.
Support universal government-supervised health
care. There are millions of Americans who can't
afford health insurance. They are being deprived of a
basic right to healthcare.
Changes in global temperatures are natural over long periods
of time. So far, science has not shown that humans can
affect permanent change to the earth's temperature.
The Second Amendment gives the individual the right to
keep and bear arms. Gun control laws do not thwart
criminals. You have a right to defend yourself against
criminals. More guns mean less crime.
Free healthcare provided by the government (socialized
medicine) means that everyone will get the same poorquality healthcare. The rich will continue to pay for superior
healthcare, while all others will receive poor-quality free
healthcare from the government. Health care should remain
privatized.
Support Healthcare Spending Accounts.
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Immigration
Support legal immigration and increasing the number
of legal immigrants permitted to enter the U.S. each
year. Support blanket amnesty for current illegal
immigrants.
Believe that regardless of how they came to the U.S.,
illegal immigrants deserve:
- U.S. government financial aid for college tuition.
- visas for spouse/children to come to the
U.S. Families shouldn't be separated.
Religion
Illegal immigrants do the jobs that Americans do not
want to do.
Support the separation of church and state. Religious
expression has no place in government.
Support the removal of all references to God in
public and government spaces.
Support legal immigration at current numbers, but do not
support illegal immigration. Government should enforce
immigration laws. Oppose President Bush's amnesty plan for
illegal immigrants. Those who break the law by entering the
U.S. illegally should not have the same rights as those who
obey the law by entering legally.
If there were a decrease in cheap, illegal immigrant labor,
employers would have to substitute higher-priced domestic
employees, legal immigrants, or perhaps increase
mechanization.
The phrase "separation of church and state" is not in the
Constitution. The First Amendment to the Constitution
states "Congress shall make no law respecting an
establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise
thereof..." This prevents the government from establishing a
national church. However, it does not prevent God from
being acknowledged in schools and government buildings.
Religion should not interfere with government.
Oppose the removal of symbols of Christian heritage from
public and government spaces.
Same-sex
marriage
Marriage should be legal for gay, lesbian, bisexual
and transgender couples to ensure equal rights for
all.
All individuals, regardless of their sex, have the right
to marry.
Taxes
United
Nations
(UN)
War on
terror/terrori
sm
Welfare
Believe that prohibiting same-sex citizens from
marrying denies them of their civil rights. Opinions
differ on whether this issue is equal to civil rights for
African Americans.
Support higher taxes and a larger government. High
taxes enable the government to do good and create
jobs. We need high taxes for social welfare programs,
to provide for the poor. We can't afford to cut taxes.
The United States has a moral and a legal obligation
to support the United Nations (UN). The UN can be
effective in promoting peace and human rights. The
U.S. should not have acted in Iraq without UN
approval. The U.S. should submit its national
interests to the greater good (as defined by the UN).
9/11 was caused by America's arrogant foreign
policy. America needs to stop angering other
countries. The threat posed by terrorism was
exaggerated by President Bush for his own political
advantage.
Support welfare. We need welfare to provide for the
poor. Conservatives oppose welfare because they
Government should not interfere with religion and religious
freedom.
Marriage is between one man and one woman.
Opinions differ on support for the creation of a constitutional
amendment establishing marriage as the union of one man
and one woman.
Believe that requiring citizens to sanction same-sex
relationships violates moral and religious beliefs of millions
of Christians, Jews, Muslims and others who believe
marriage is the union of a man and a woman.
Support lower taxes and a smaller government. Lower taxes
create more incentive for people to work, save, invest, and
engage in entrepreneurial endeavors. Money is best spent by
those who earn it.
The UN has repeatedly failed in its essential mission: to
preserve world peace. The wars, genocide and human rights
abuses of the majority of its member states (and the UN's
failure to stop them) prove this point. History shows that the
United States, not the UN, is the global force for spreading
freedom, prosperity, tolerance and peace. The U.S. should
never subvert its national interests to those of the UN.
The world toward which the Militant Islamists strive cannot
peacefully co-exist with the Western world. In the last
decade, Militant Islamists have repeatedly attacked
Americans and American interests here and abroad. The
terrorists must be stopped and destroyed.
Oppose long-term welfare. We need to provide opportunities
to make it possible for poor and low-income workers to
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are not compassionate toward the poor. We have
welfare to bring fairness to American economic
life. Without welfare, life below the poverty line
would be intolerable.
become self-reliant. It is far more compassionate and
effective to encourage a person to become self-reliant, rather
than keeping them dependent on the government for money.
Copyright 2005 StudentNewsDaily.com
Political Culture Reading
Read Shively Qs 161-168: Answer these Qs below. (This reading is NOT found in this packet)
1. What is political culture according to Shively?
2. Why is it difficult to describe a country’s political culture?
3. Why does political culture change slowly?
4. How is the US different from Europe?
5. What role does religion play in US political culture?
6. Define political socialization.
7. How are people socialized?
8. What do we learn from parents? School? Peer groups?
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Chapter 7 (pgs. 155-158) and chapter 8 (all) overview: Public Opinion and political Participation
Vocabulary
Public opinion
Poll
Random sample
Sampling error
Exit polls
Voting Age population
Registered voters
Literacy test
Poll tax
Grandfather clause
White primary
Australian ballot
Activists
Chapter 7
1. Give some of the examples the book lists as to ways the government does not always act “for the people, by the
people”.
2. Why is there this difference between what the people want and what the government does?
3. Analyze the role of public opinion in a democracy such as ours.
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4. What have public opinions historically shown about Americans?
5. List and explain the steps in the polling process.
6. Use the following example to explain the importance of the margin of error/ sampling error:
“Barack Obama leads Mitt Romney in polls, 47% to 42 %”
(Margin of Error =/- 5%)
7. Compare and contrast: opinion saliency, opinion stability and opinion policy congruence.
Chapter 8: Political Participation
A Closer Look at Non-voting….
1. What is the difference between a Voting Age population and a Voting Eligible population?
2. List some of the reasons that voter turnout in America is low. Why do you think Americans don’t vote in very
high numbers?
3. Explain the Motor Voter law. Do you think it has helped with voter turnout?
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4. How do people participate in politics BESIDES voting?
The Rise of the American Electorate…
5. Using this section, explain how the states have used their power to run elections in the past. Include how the
federal government has also tried to influence the election process.
6. In the space below, put at least 10 dates on the timeline that you feel are important regarding the history of
voting in this country.
1800
1900
2000
7. Analyze the data given on page 183. What trends do you notice?
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8. List the requirements to vote in most US states. Do you think there should be more or less requirements? Why
or why not?
9. What are the two main reasons scholars think voter turnout has declined? (use pages 184-186 to answer this!!)
10. How did the Australian ballot change elections?
11. What is an argument that universal voter turnout might not be the best thing?
Who Participates in Politics….
12. Describe each of the following:
a. Inactive citizens
b. Activists
c. Voting specialists
d. Campaigners
e. Communalists
f.
Parochial participants
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13. Explain how each of the following impacts the way people vote.
a. Education
b. Religion
c. Gender
d. Age
e. Income (pg 191)
14. Pages 189-190 list 5 more reasons people don’t vote. List them and then pick the one you think is most
responsible for low voter turnout.
15. Read and summarize the section “the Meaning of Participation Rates”.
Practice Qs: The following Qs will look very similar to the Qs you’ll see on your quiz. See how you do!
1. Only rarely, argues the text, does the general public have which of the following?
a. A dominant opinion on an issue
b. A chance to learn and examine the facts about an issue
c. The opportunity to obtain formal power
d. Problems with official decisions on issues
e. The will to exercise power
2. One reason why public policy often differs from public opinion is that
a. The U.S. Constitution places many checks on the influence of public opinion.
b. public opinion polling tends to express the opinions of the political elite.
c. public opinion is easy to gauge, while the effectiveness of public policy is not.
d. public opinion tends to change much more slowly than public policy.
e. public opinion is rarely informed at the beginning of the policy making process.
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3. In U.S. presidential elections, voter turnout is typically
a. less than 25 percent.
b. less than 30 percent.
c. less than 60 percent.
d. more than 80 percent.
e. nearly 100 percent.
4. Which of the following statements about the right to vote in the United States is correct?
a. Not every U.S. citizen of voting age is allowed to vote.
b. The original U.S. Constitution ensured women the right to vote.
c. In 1880 a higher percentage of British than Americans could vote.
d. The original U.S. Constitution specifically prohibited setting property restrictions on the right
to vote.
e. The states originally had little say as to who could and could not vote.
5. One explanation given by the text for the decline in U.S. voter participation in presidential
elections after 1900 is that
a. parties began functioning to mobilize mass voter turnout.
b. fewer citizens were directly affected by the outcome of presidential elections.
c. other forms of political participation became less accessible to citizens.
d. election fraud was rampant in the nineteenth century.
e. the Republican party began to attempt to mobilize individuals who were least likely to vote.
Answers: 1-A, 2-A, 3-C, 4-A, 5-D
Ideology, culture and socialization PP review notes
How did we get this way?

Ideology
o Set of beliefs
o Way to compare people politically
o Not etched in stone
o Left, right, social, economic
o The role of the gov!
Let’s review…
Democrats (left wing, American liberals)
Universal/gov healthcare
More taxes/more programs
Pro-choice
More $ for the environment
Increase minimum wage
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Support social security
Republicans (right wing, American conservatives)
Private healthcare
Fewer taxes, private enterprise
Pro-life
More $ for military/ research
Let states/businesses decide on minimum wage
Privatize social security
What will AP ask?
Unless specified, if AP asks about liberals and conservatives, assume they are referring to AMERICAN liberals and
conservatives, both born out of ideals of liberty.
Ideology can be seen in culture

Economic and Political equality?


Idea of liberty
Political equality





All about liberty
Assertive, confident: religion, patriotism, capitalism, individualism
High political efficacy comparatively
General distrust in politics since the 60s
More tolerant
Socialization
The process by which people acquire political values and attitudes
Family
Religion
Gender
Schooling
Social Class
Race and ethnicity
Region
Family
Religion
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The Gender Gap
Men increasingly Republican
Women remain unchanged
Issues:
– Gun control (women strongly for)
– Spending on programs for the poor (somewhat for)
– Gay marriage (less likely to strongly oppose)
– Death penalty (women strongly against)
Pg. 161
Schooling and Information
Differences: social class





We are all middle class?
Blue vs. white collar
Class voting has declined sharply
Unskilled workers are more likely to vote Democrat
Wealthy more likely to vote
Race and Ethnicity
Age
Region
Typical voters?
Democrats:
Republicans:
Just remember….
we are ALL “middle class moderates” according to ourselves…
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Polls: the measuring stick of modern politics
By Eric Pryne
Seattle Times staff reporter
In 1936 Literary Digest magazine, citing its own poll, boldly predicted that Republican Alf Landon would
defeat President Franklin D. Roosevelt. FDR, of course, was re-elected by a landslide.
Oops.
Literary Digest is long dead. Polls, still in their infancy in 1936, are thriving. It's hard to imagine modern
American politics without them.
The concept behind polling is simple: ask a question of a representative sample of the population, and you
should get a pretty accurate sense of what the country as a whole is thinking.
Candidates use polls to monitor how their campaigns are faring, and to find out which buttons they might push
to win your vote. The news media conduct polls to find out what's on voters' minds, and to track the "horse
race."
Polls are controversial. Some people say they discourage good potential candidates with low name familiarity
from running for office. Others say polls help obscure differences between candidates: they all read the polls
and tailor their pitches accordingly.
Others say polls may measure public opinion, but often don't measure the intensity of that opinion.
And of course nobody knows how much those responding have thought about the candidate or issue.
Reading polls intelligently
Public-opinion researchers know much more about how to conduct a poll now than they did when the Literary
Digest staged its spectacular bellyflop. Still, polls are imperfect tools, subject to manipulation and
misinterpretation. Here are some questions you should ask whenever you're looking at poll results. Red flags
should go up if the people behind the polls don't provide the answers.
1. Who sponsored the poll?
Special-interest groups love to commission and release polls that support their points of view. If the National
Rifle Association sponsors a poll that shows most Americans want to keep assault weapons under their beds, or
if the Sierra Club sponsors a poll that shows people want the spotted owl to replace the bald eagle as the nation's
symbol, you might well question the survey's objectivity.
2. How big was the sample?
Obviously, it's impossible to poll every voter. But it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that the more
people you poll, the more likely you are to obtain results that reflect the attitudes of the population as a whole.
How far from reality the poll results can be expected to be is called the margin of error. The larger the sample
polled, the smaller the margin.
For example, 570 Washingtonians responded to a statewide Seattle Times/Front Porch Forum in April 1996,
and 18 percent said they were very concerned about keeping their jobs. Statisticians calculate that the margin of
error for a sample that size is 4 percentage points. That means that if every adult in the state were questioned,
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between 14 and 22 percent would say they are very concerned about job security.
A smaller sample would have a larger margin of error.
3. Who was sampled?
Good pollsters strive for randomness. Theoretically, every person in the target population should have an equal
chance of being surveyed.
That's where the Literary Digest poll fell short. The magazine surveyed only owners of automobiles and
telephones; in 1936, many poorer voters owned neither. So wealthier voters were over-represented in the
sample, and the poll results were skewed.
Today many pollsters dial phone numbers at random, so people with unlisted numbers will have as much
chance of being sampled as people listed in phone books.
4. What methodology was used?
Polls can be conducted in person, by telephone or by mail. Mail surveys, often employed by politicians to gauge
voter opinion on issues, are the least accurate; the people who take the time to return the survey forms usually
aren't a representative sample of all the people who receive them.
5. When was the poll conducted?
Voters change their minds; an old poll may not reflect new developments or current attitudes. Pollsters expect a
"bump" in a candidate's standing, for instance, at the end of a national convention with all its positive coverage.
Pollsters incorrectly predicted Thomas Dewey would defeat President Harry Truman in 1948 partly because
they didn't poll close enough to election day.
6. What was the exact wording of the question?
Leading questions can produce biased results: An example: "For president, are you leaning toward voting for
war hero Bob Dole, or that dope-smoking draft-dodger Bill Clinton?"
Bias rarely is that obvious. Still, a look at the precise wording of a question allows you to make up your own
mind. Some poll questions ask respondents to choose from a limited number of responses. Other questions are
open-ended.
Practice writing your own questions below:
Invalid:
Valid:
Poll jargon: pushing, tracking and exit
Finally, a brief word about three kinds of polls you may hear mentioned this election year.
Exit polls are often conducted by news organizations, who question voters as they leave polling places
on election day. The results are then used to "project" the winners of races long before the votes are counted.
Candidates have complained when TV networks broadcast results of these polls before all voters have cast their
ballots, and these days most exit polls aren't released until after the end of the voting day in the state where the
polling was done.
Tracking polls are small-sample surveys used by campaigns and others to track the standing of
candidates on a regular basis, sometimes daily.
Push polls aren't really polls at all, but campaign propaganda masquerading as research. They aim not to
measure public opinion, but to manipulate it by planting negative impressions of an opposing candidate in the
form of a question. An extreme example: "Would you be more or less likely to vote for Candidate X if you
learned he frequents topless bars?"
Makes no difference if that allegation is true; the purpose of a push poll is to plant that seed.
Use the section above to summarize the six “red flags” in the polling process below.
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QW: How do political elites use polls? How is that different from the citizenry?
Polling Power Point Notes
Types of polls
 Straw polls:
 Exit polls:
Who do you poll?
 Random samples
 Stratified/quota samples (geographic distribution)
 250 million= 1500 people
How do you poll?





Define the
Construct a sample
Create
Select and control
Analyze and report findings
Why do you poll?
 Public opinion
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 National polling organizations tend to be pretty accurate
 Influence is not measurable
What does a good poll need?





Representative sample
Carefully constructed
Accurate statistical analysis
Meticulous
A stratified or quota sample is the best way to sample
Common problems
Room for error
 Margin of error (+/- 3%)
 Sampling error: difference between random samples taken at the same time
See Gallup/Pew for examples:
Practice Qs:
1. Which of the following statements about public opinion polling is TRUE?
A) Straw polls are scientific polls usually conducted by newspapers.
B) The larger the population in question, the larger the sample size must be to maintain the same sampling
error.
C) Requirements for randomness may be satisfied quite easily by having respondents phone answers in to a
television station.
E) Telephone surveys are generally unreliable because they target only those who can afford telephones.
2. A useful public opinion poll requires all of the following EXCEPT
A) a representative sample
B) carefully constructed questions
C) an accurate statistical analysis
D) meticulous planning
E) face-to-face interviewing
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3. Last minute polls often have results that are different from earlier polls. This is probably due to
A) the use of large numbers of questions
B) the use of different questions
C) an increase in sampling errors
D) the lack of proper questions
E) the lack of random controls
Every Eligible Voter Counts: Correctly Measuring
American Turnout Rates
Dr. Michael P. McDonald
All signs point to 2004 as a vintage year for democracy in the United States. Interest in the campaign
and candidates is up. More people are following the election. People see distinct differences between the
candidates on the issues. The election is perceived to be close, not only nationally, but also in a greater number
of battleground states than in 2000. Many people have already committed to voting, and absentee ballot
applications are running at record levels.
This year will undoubtedly set a record for the total number of Americans who vote. If the 2004 turnout
rate matches the 1992 turnout rate, as many polling organizations predict when they define “likely voters,” then
approximately 122 million Americans will vote, an 17 million increase from the record 2000 presidential
turnout of 105 million.
When measured correctly, voter turnout is not declining, as many people believe. This misunderstanding
arises because the population ineligible to vote is increasing. Remarkably, the ineligible population commonly
is included in the calculation of voter turnout rates, which creates false impressions about historical trends and
inaccurate comparisons among the states.
Looking back at turnout rates post-World War II, we can understand why observers have wrongly
concluded that American voters are becoming more apathetic. If we calculate turnout rates for everyone of
voting age in the United States, there is an unmistakable downward trend since the 1960s, interrupted only
occasionally. If we instead base the rates on those eligible to vote, no decline is apparent since 1972. As I will
explain, the way in which the turnout rate is calculated can have a substantial impact on our understanding of
Americans’ level of electoral participation.
Ideally, we would calculate the turnout rate as:
Rate Turnout 
total ballots cast
# of eligible voters
But, due to the convenience of readily available numbers, the turnout rate is most often
calculated as:
Rate Turnout=
total votes for president
Total # of people 18 or older in the U.S. 
To correctly understand participation in American elections, we need to examine closely the underlying
numbers in the denominator and numerator of the voter turnout rate. Several important demographic trends lurk
in these data and have relevance beyond getting the turnout rate right.
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The Denominator
Let’s start with the denominator in the ideal turnout rate equation: those eligible to vote. Until recently, the
Census Bureau calculated turnout rates based on what is known as the “voting-age population,” defined as an
estimate of the domestic United States population age 18 and older. Many organizations and individuals
continue to use this figure in place of a calculation of those eligible to vote, even though the Census Bureau
instead uses citizen-voting-age population in its most recent reports.
As the Census Bureau is careful to state, the voting-age population (VAP) is not equivalent to the
voting-eligible population (VEP). The VAP includes persons ineligible to vote: persons residing in the United
States who are not citizens, ineligible felons (depending upon state laws), persons who do not satisfy residency
requirements, and the mentally incompetent. It also excludes persons who are eligible to vote, namely eligible
voters living overseas. Remarkably, in 2004 an estimated 9.3% of the voting-age population is ineligible to
vote.
Non-citizens
The increase in the non-citizen population accounts for much of the misperception of American voter turnout
trends. In 1972, non-citizens constituted only about 1.5% of the VAP, yet their numbers have been steadily
increasing. Today, non-citizens are estimated to be 7.9% of the voting-age population, thus constituting the
largest portion of those ineligible to vote.
Although one might incorrectly infer that these non-citizen immigrants are here illegally, the majority
are legal residents. The Department of Homeland Security reports that as of 2000, legal permanent residents
constituted 10.8 million and unauthorized immigrants 7.0 million of the total estimated 17.8 million noncitizens in the country.
Felony Disfranchisement
The voting rights of felons depend on state law. Forty-eight states (plus the District of Columbia) bar felony
prisoners from voting, thirty-two states bar those on parole, and twenty-nine bar those on probation. Examining
Department of Justice reports on the number of felons located in these states and in the federal prisons suggests
that about 3.2 million persons cannot vote because of their felony status. The number of ineligible felons has
trended upwards since the early 1980s when prison populations began expanding.
The estimate of felony disfranchisement does not include figures for the fourteen states that restrict exfelon voting rights to some degree, though since 2000, five states have modified their laws to make it easier for
ex-felons to vote. The statistics necessary to construct such an estimate with a high degree of accuracy are
unavailable: recidivism, migration, and mortality rates of ex-felons. One estimate, compiled by the Sentencing
Project, finds that 1.7 million ex-felons were unable to vote in the 2000 presidential election.
Felony disfranchisement is not racially neutral, as African-American and Hispanic men, groups with
larger percentages of felons than the national average, are more likely to be barred from voting than are whites
or women.
The Sentencing Report finds that 1.4 million black males (13%) are ineligible. In the states that permanently bar
felons from voting, 25% are ineligible.
Recent Movers
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State law on residency requirements varies from state to state. Some states have an explicit requirement that an
individual has maintained residency for a given period, while others are implicitly set with the registration
deadline. Thirty-three states have a 28-day or more effective residency requirement.
Statistics on the number of people who have moved following a state’s residency deadline is unknown.
According to the 2000 census, 8.4% of all persons moved to another state within the past 5 years. If we evenly
distribute these individuals by month, then 0.1% of all persons moved to a different state in the month prior to a
presidential election, which equates into about 300,000 persons of voting-age.
Unfortunately, we do not know how these persons are distributed among the states with varying
residency requirements, so an adjustment to the VAP for movers cannot be made. The impact of moving on
voter turnout is probably more pronounced than simple eligibility since persons who are most likely to vote are
those who are connected to their community. Recent movers, until they feel a part of their community, do not
vote at as high rates as long-time residents.
The Mentally Incompetent
Persons who are found mentally incompetent by a court of law are barred from voting in all states. No good
statistics exist for the number of persons who are legally considered mentally incompetent. The number of
occupied beds in high- level nursing homes, in which the mentally incompetent often receive care, is about
250,000 according to a recent National Institute of Health Statistics survey.
Overseas Citizens
Overseas citizens consist of private citizens living or traveling abroad; military persons and their dependents;
and other government officials, such as those working for the State Department, and their dependents.
Surprisingly, the Census Bureau reports that there is no reliable estimate of the number of overseas citizens.
Moreover, the statistics that are available do not indicate how overseas citizens are apportioned to the states.
The number
of voting-eligible overseas citizens can be crudely estimated at 3.2 million, based on military deployment
reports, State Department personnel reports, and reports of private citizens living overseas.
The Numerator
The number of people who voted in an election should be simple to measure. After all, we have to know the
election results in order to declare a winner. Yet there are voters who cast a ballot but inadvertently did not
record a vote for president or purposely skipped the presidential choice to vote for a different race on the ballot.
Did these people vote?
Perhaps we should calculate turnout rates for all those who cast a ballot, but remarkably we do not know
how many people actually cast a ballot in a national election. Most states report the total number of ballots cast,
but some do not. Instead of using total ballots cast, those who study participation rely on the number of
presidential election votes to gauge participation.
We can estimate the total number of ballots cast by using those states that report the number and
inflating the presidential vote for those states that do not. Using this method, the total number of ballots cast is
about 2.1% greater than the number of people who voted for president. The result is that we can show
participation is even slightly higher than is widely believed.
Correctly Measuring Turnout Rates
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Turnout Rates in Presidential Elections, 1948-2000
There has been an increasing gap between VAP turnout rates for presidential voters and VEP turnout rates for
total ballots cast as a consequence of an increase in immigration, larger prison populations, and a slight decrease
in overseas citizens when troops returned to the United States at the end of the Cold War. Thirty years ago, it
mattered only slightly which statistics one used. But in 2000, there was a 5.3 percentage point difference
between the two turnout rates.
Using the wrong statistics also creates misperceptions about differences in turnout rates between the states. For
example, California has the nation’s largest non-citizen population. The 2000 turnout rate (based on voting-age
population) was 44.1%, well below the national rate of 50.0%. In contrast, when using data on those eligible to
vote
and those who cast a ballot, California’s turnout rate is 56.6%, higher than the national rate of 55.3%. If we
were to use the wrong numbers, we might conclude California’s turnout was in crisis, when in fact participation
in California is slightly higher than in other states. As it turns out, much of the previously perceived variation in
state turnout rates can be attributed to the presence of ineligible voters.
If we drew a trend line for participation in American elections using the VAP turnout rate, we would come to
the sad conclusion that in 240 years, no one would vote. Those concerned about turnout declines equate voting
with other civic engagement activities and ominously warn that American democracy is teetering on the brink.
Many well intentioned people promote various cures for a system they believe is on life support. The good news
is that things are not as bad as they are made out to be, and perhaps people are looking for a cure to a nonexistent problem. A trend line drawn from 1972- 2000 shows no decline in turnout rates. Sure, American
participation could be higher, but it is not in the midst of a deepening crisis. And as recently as 1992,
participation broke 60% of those eligible to vote, equaling participation during the 1950s and 1960s.
When academic polls and national and state elections are examined, it is clear that voter interest is the
most important factor for higher voter turnout. We need more competition and more exciting elections to entice
voters to the polls. Regrettably, we have an Electoral College that reduces competition to a few battleground
states. Only ten percent of congressional districts are up for grabs due to gerrymandering. Reforming our
antiquated electoral system to inject competition may have a greater impact on increasing participation than any
initiative aimed directly at urging voters to the polls.
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Every Eligible Voter counts Qs
1. What are the official requirements to vote?
2. What is the author’s argument about voter turnout? What does he say is really happening?
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3. Contrast the formula the author says we should use with the formula we often use to calculate voter
turnout.
4. List and describe the groups that are ineligible to vote according to this document. Do you agree that
these groups should not vote, or are indeed “ineligible”?
5. What does the author say is the problem with calculating the numerator?
6. Why does the author think calculating incorrect voter turnout rates is dangerous?
QW: Evaluate current laws about who gets to vote. Are they fair? Not fair?
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Voting Rights Act 1965 video:
http://www.nbcnews.com/video/nbc-news/8645974#8645974
QW: Describe why the VRA of 1965 was so significant (use the video clip and notes from book):
Ballot Battles video questions
1. Briefly summarize the 2000 presidential election in Florida and the controversy surrounding it.
2. When is a recount used in elections? How does it work?
3. What is the Help America Vote Act?
4. Why was Ohio important in the 2004 election?
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5. What did Diebold's opponents argue?
6. List the problem areas for computerized voting machines.
7. Explain how these issues are related to disabled voters
8. What group of people is not allowed to vote in 7 states? Do you agree with this?
9. Explain the racial component of the 2000 election
10. What do you predict to be the future of voting?
Test: Chapters 4, 7, 8
Review Topics: You do not have to write anything on this. Please use your Barron’s book to study, as well as
the practice Qs I have provided. Quizlet.com can be a handy resource as well!
Political Spectrum
Be able to define: liberal (American), conservative (American), classic conservatism,
classic liberalism, populism, socialism, communism, libertarianism and fascism.
For each of the above: be able to explain where they would stand on social and
economic issues and why.
Be able to analyze major turning points in how we use the words liberal and
conservative (New Deal, Civil Rights, swapping of the Democrats and Republicans,
etc.)
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Political Socialization
List the ways people are socialized politically. Which is often the most influential?
Compare American political culture to that of other European countries and the Japanese.
Analyze how party loyalty/identification has changed over the past several decades.
Political Participation
Be able to identify how each of the following groups are likely to vote in an election (which party)(remember,
this is a generalization, it does not apply to everyone in these groups!!): African Americans, Latinos, the South,
men, Jewish people, white collar workers, blue collar workers, rural vs. urban voters, Protestants, Catholics
Review the idea of the gender gap/ identify issues there may be a difference between men and women.
Know: the steps in the polling process, dangers of the polling process
Contrast the ways voter turnout can be calculated.
Compare “cannot voters” and “nonvoting voters.”
What are some of the ways people can participate in politics BESIDES voting?
Voting History and trends
Identify the role of each of the following in voting: age, education, income
Identify how voting requirements have changed in the United States since the creation of the Constitution.
(Include: methods of denying the vote to some groups)
Know: Voting Rights act and Civil Rights Act, methods used to being about changes for the voting rights of
African Americans.
Explain how the Australian ballot changed elections.
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