Turnout Theory
• Why do people vote?
• How can parties, groups, and candidate
campaigns encourage people to vote who
might not otherwise vote?
Recall the Voting calculus
P(V) = PB + D – C
• The probability of voting is equal to the
• voter’s personal benefit from electing one candidate
times the probability the vote itself will determine the
outcome,
• and the emotional benefit of performing one’s civic
duty,
• minus the transaction and opportunity costs of the act
of casting a ballot.
Benefits of Voting
• Material (virtually zero with secret ballot)
• Emotional/expressive (from performing
civic duty)
• Social benefits (guilt/pride related to
performance of civic duty)
Correlates to likelihood of voting
• *Education*
– Socialization
– Information, interest
• Income
• Social connectedness
–
–
–
–
Age
Church attendance
Marriage
Home Ownership
Recall the Voting calculus
P(V) = PB + D – C
• The probability of voting is equal to the
• voter’s personal benefit from electing one candidate
times the probability the vote itself will determine the
outcome,
• and the emotional benefit of performing one’s civic
duty,
• minus the transaction and opportunity costs of the act
of casting a ballot.
Costs and Barriers
Costs:
• Time, effort to vote
• Time, effort to register
• Informational costs
Barriers to voting:
• Incarceration (46 states)
• Felons on parole
• Residency requirements
• Registration
• Understanding the process
How many voters do turn out?
• Rate =
voting population
eligible adult population
• Two problems:
– Eligible adult population hard to know
– Voting population hard to know
How many voters do turn out?
2004, from Current Population Survey
Voting-Age Population
Non-citizen
Prison
Probation
Parole
Total Ineligible Felon
Overseas Eligible
Voting-Eligible
Highest Office
Total Turnout
VAP Highest Office Rate
VEP Highest Office Rate
VEP Total Turnout Rate
221,256,931
8.45%
1,490,169
2,451,708
485,282
3,201,305
3,308,145
202,674,771
122,294,978
123,535,883
55.27%
60.34%
60.95%
Percent of eligible voters who vote,
presidential elections
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1840 1856 1872 1888 1904 1920 1936 1952 1968 1984 2000
Why has turnout declined?
•
•
•
•
Greater eligible population
Changes in party mobilization
Uncompetitive elections
Voter registration
What could you do to increase
turnout?
• Through public policy
• For a particular candidate
• How might you decrease turnout?
Effect of Registration laws on
turnout
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Oregon (vote by mail)
Minnesota (same day
registration)
% Voted
National average
In any given election, why might
more people turn out?
•
•
•
•
•
High media coverage
Significant office
Important issues
Attractive candidates
Competitive race