The Mixed System:
How did primaries change the
presidential nomination process?
Announcements
• Tuesday, Sept. 20
– 12:30-2pm
– Panel Discussion on President Bush’s
nomination of John Roberts to be Chief Justice
of the Supreme Court
– IPJ Peace and Justice Theatre
Important Dates (Reminder)
• September 21 (Next Wednesday!)
– Choose topic for research paper
– Submit chosen topic with a preliminary list of
books/sources
• November 11
– Last day I will accept drafts
• November 18: Paper Due
• Last days of class: Debates/Presentations
Research papers
• Choose an incident in which a president used a
specific power.
• Research, using primary sources:
– how the president justified his use of that power
– how others in and out of government evaluated that
justification
– whether and how other actors attempted to restrain him.
• Based on that research, make your own argument:
– whether and on what basis the president’s use of the power
was justified;
– whether appropriate steps were taken to check his use of
that power;
– whether the act in question falls within your view of the
scope of legitimate presidential authority.
Topics
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Detention of U.S. citizens as “enemy combatants”
Executive privilege over meetings with aides
Suspension of the writ of habeas corpus
Roosevelt’s attempt to “pack the court”
Internment of Japanese Americans during WWII
Refusal to enforce the Supreme Court ruling
A topic of your own choosing
An “A” Paper
• Makes a clear, original argument
• Answers all the questions in the assignment
• Uses several primary sources
–
–
–
–
–
Presidential speeches/memoirs
Memoirs of key presidential aides
The Congressional Record
Contemporary news accounts
Court cases
• Is submitted on time (you will be docked a full
letter grade for every day the paper is late!)
Methods of Nominating
Presidential Candidates
“King Caucus”: 1800-1828
Convention System: 1832-1912
The Convention System
• National party nominating convention
selects presidential candidate
• Strong parties
• Patronage
• High participation
• Parties try to control presidents
Three changes at the turn of the
20th century
• Civil Service
Rise In Civil Service
Employment
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1816
1831
1851
1871
1891
1911
1931
1951
Percentage of employees under merit
1971
1991
Number of civil servants under
merit system, 1816-1921
600000
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
1816 1821 1831 1841 1851 1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921
Number of employees
Number of civil servants
Three changes at the turn of the
20th century
• Civil Service
• Communications technology
Changes in technology
• Railroads (1850s +)
• Daily newspapers (1880s +)
• Radio and TV (1940s +)
Number of daily and weekly
newspapers
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1790 1810 1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990
Number of daily newspapers
Number of weeklies
Number of Households with
radio and TV (in millions)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1910
1920
1930
1940
Households with radio
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Households with TV
Three changes at the turn of the
20th century
• Civil Service
• Communications technology
• Primary elections
Number of States Holding
Primary Elections
20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1912
1920
1928
Democrats
1936
1944
1952
1960
Republicans
1968
First Three Methods of Nominating
Presidential Candidates
“King Caucus”: 1800-1828
Convention System: 1832-1912
Mixed System: 1912-1968
Mixed System
• Real decision about nomination made at
national convention
• Candidates can choose to run in primaries
Percent of Party Convention
Delegates Chosen by Primaries
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1912
1920
1928
Democrats
1936
1944
1952
1960
Republicans
1968
Number of Convention Ballots to
Select the Presidential Nominee
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1912
1920
1928
Democrats
1936
1944
1952
1960
Republicans
1968
1952 Democratic Convention:
Delegates pledged by primaries
• Sen. Estes Kefauver (TN): 257.5 delegates
• Gov. Adlai Stevenson (IL): 41.5 delegates
• Uncommitted: 611.5 delegates
• Others:
– Sen. Richard Russell (GA): 161.5 delegates
– Averell Harriman: 112.5 delegates
– Sen. Bob Kerr (OK): 45.5 delegates
Compare the three systems we have
discussed so far. How do each serve as a
resource or constraint for presidents? Which
do you think is most democratic? Which has
the best chance of producing good
presidents?
1968 Democratic Convention
Presidential
Party Nomination Systems
“King Caucus”: 1800-1828
Convention System: 1832-1912
Mixed System: 1912-1968
Primary System: 1972-???
Important changes to party rules as a
result of McGovern-Fraser Commission
• Anti-discrimination provisions
• Explicit party rules and open party meetings
• Bans the UNIT RULE
– Unit rule: the practice of apportioning delegates in a
winner-take-all fashion
• Encourages broad and open participation in delegate
selection process
• Mandates that minorities’ opinions be fairly weighted in
delegate selection process
• Bans the automatic delegate-status of party officials and
elected officeholders
Number of states holding
primary elections
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Democrats
Republicans
Percent of Party Convention
Delegates Chosen by Primaries
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1912 1920 1928 1936 1944 1952 1960 1968 1976 1984 1992 2000
Democrats
Republicans
Some delegates still chosen by
other means
• Caucus:
– A Meeting where any affiliated voter can come
and express their opinions
• State convention:
– Local party groups select delegates to state
party convention. State convention delegates
select delegates to national nominating
convention.
Consequences of Party Reform
• Increase in number of primaries
• Increase in importance of media
– (And hence the importance of early primaries!)
Early primaries get more media
coverage (1980)
State
Primary Date
Number of
delegates
Iowa
Jan 21
87
Percentage of
CBS’
coverage
14%
NH
Jan 26
41
14%
TX
May 3
232
2%
CA
June 3
474
6%
Consequences of Party Reform
• Increase in number of primaries
• Increase in importance of media
• Increase in importance of early primaries
(and momentum and expectations!)
A representative beginning?
From the 2000 Census
Population
% White
Median
income
% Farm
employmt
Iowa
New
Hampshire
National
average
2,929,324
(30th)
1,235,786
(41st)
281,421,906
93.9%
96%
75.1%
$39,469
$49,467
$41,994
4.4%
.9%
1.9%
Consequences of Party Reform
• Increase in number of primaries
• Increase in importance of media
• Increase in importance of early primaries
(and momentum and expectations!)
• Decreases importance of national party
conventions
Consequences of Party Reform
•
•
•
•
Increase in number of primaries
Increase in importance of media
Increase in importance of early primaries
Decreases importance of national party
conventions
• Decreases importance of state party leaders
Changes After 1968
• McGovern-Fraser reforms
• FECA
Federal Election Campaign Act
• Creates a voluntary subsidy for candidates who
enter primary elections
– All funds candidates raise in amounts of $250 or less (if
they raise $5000 in 20 different states) are matched by
the federal government on Jan 1 of election year
• Bans large donations by individuals
– Individuals can only give $2000 to a primary candidate
Consequences of Party Reform &
FECA
•
•
•
•
Increase in number of primaries
Increase in importance of media
Increase in importance of early primaries
Decreases importance of national party
conventions
• Decreases importance of state party leaders
• Harder to raise money (takes longer to raise
big money in small contributions!)
A Couple of Problems?
• Ideological primary voters?
• Candidates mobilize factions?
Hunt Commission, 1982
• Superdelegates
• Frontloading
Date
Jan wk2
Jan wk3
Jan wk4
Feb wk1
Feb wk2
Feb wk3
Feb wk4
2004 PRIMARIES/caucuses
DC
IA
NH
AZ, DE, MO, SC, NM
MI, WA, ME VA, TN, DC
MI, ID
Mar wk1 CA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI,
MN, ND, MA, NY, OH, RI,
VT
1996
AK, HI
LA
IA
NH
DE, AZ, ND,
SD
AP Delegate totals,
March 17, 2004
(2,162 needed to win nomination)
Kerry: 2333
Edwards: 530
Dean: 156
Clark: 73
Sharpton: 26
Kucinich: 22
Lieberman: 2
Gephardt: 2
The INVISIBLE PRIMARY:
The race for money and endorsements in the
year before the general election
Candidate's share of party loyal
funds raised per month (GOP 2000)
Percentage of Party Loyal Funds
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Jan-99 Feb-99 Mar-99 Apr-99 May-99 Jun-99
Jul-99 Aug-99 Sep-99 Oct-99 Nov-99 Dec-99
Month
DOLE, ELIZABETH
SMITH, ROBERT C
HATCH, ORRIN GRANT
ALEXANDER, ANDREW LAMAR
FORBES, STEVE
MCCAIN, JOHN S
BUSH, GEORGE W
BAUER, GARY L
KEYES, ALAN L
KASICH, JOHN R
QUAYLE, DAN
Presidential
Party Nomination Systems
“King Caucus”: 1800-1828
Convention System: 1832-1912
Mixed System: 1912-1968
Primary System: 1972-1982?
(Modified primary system? 1982-????)
2004 Democratic Nomination
What happened to Howard Dean?
How does the current system compare to
historical nominations systems we’ve
considered? What is the relationship
between a presidential candidate and his or
her party today?
Where are we now?
• Invisible primary will start December ’06
• Has it started already?
Possible contenders?
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
John Edwards
Howard Dean
Hillary Clinton
Rod Blagojevich
Janet Napolitano
Bill Richardson
Tom Vilsack
Evan Bayh
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Bill Frist
Rudy Giuliani
John McCain
George Allen
Mitt Romney
Goerge Pataki
Chuck Hagel
In small groups, discuss:
1. What types of candidates are advantaged by the
current nomination system? Are they the “right”
kind of candidates?
2. What are the chances that your candidate will
win his or her party’s nomination?
3. If you were hired to advise this particular
candidate how to get his or her party’s
nomination, what would you tell him or her to
do?