Investment & Portfolio Management BSB6302 Semester 1 2014-2015 Bahrain polytechnic Zahra Abdulhusain Ahmed Hasan Ali Group names and IDs Zahra A. Ali Ahmed Al-Sharif Mustafa A. Hassan Tutor’s Name Due Date 201100963 201200112 201102031 Ms. Latifa AlFahdel 30th November 2014 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Table of Contents 1. Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................... 2 2. Introduction .......................................................................................................................................... 4 3. Development of Personal Investment Philosophy................................................................................ 5 4. Investment Strategy .............................................................................................................................. 7 5. Outlook and Research on the Four Stocks Selected ............................................................................. 9 6.1 Description of the Firm and Reasons for selecting it .......................................................................... 9 6.1.1 Firm 1: Apple Inc. ......................................................................................................................... 9 6.1.2 Firm 2: Johnson & Johnson ........................................................................................................ 11 6.1.3 Firm 3: FedEx Corporation ......................................................................................................... 13 6.1.4 Firm 4: Nike Inc. ......................................................................................................................... 14 6.2 Financial Ratios ................................................................................................................................. 16 6.3 Closing Share Prices as of 6th November 201.................................................................................... 36 6.4 Broker Recommendation .................................................................................................................. 37 6. 5 Earnings Forecasts (Nasdaq) ............................................................................................................ 40 6.6 Description and Performance of Bond: Colorado Bond Shares A Tax-Exempt (HICOX) ................... 43 6.7 Description and Performance of REIT: Alexandrian Real Estate Equities (AREE) ............................. 45 6.8 Fund Allocation ................................................................................................................................. 46 6. Evaluation of the Portfolio Performance ............................................................................................ 47 7.1 HPR Calculation ................................................................................................................................. 47 7.2 Market Rate & Risk Free Rate ........................................................................................................... 50 7.3 Portfolio Return ................................................................................................................................ 50 7.4 Portfolio Beta .................................................................................................................................... 51 7.5 Jenson’s Alpha Analysis (α) ............................................................................................................... 53 7.6 Performance of the Portfolio Firms during the Holding Period........................................................ 54 7. Suggestions for Improvement in the Investment Strategy ................................................................. 57 8. Conclusion ........................................................................................................................................... 59 9. List of References ................................................................................................................................ 60 10. Appendices ...................................................................................................................................... 67 10.1 Financial Ratios ............................................................................................................................... 67 10.2 Securities’ closing prices and dividend payments during the holding period .............................. 105 Page 1 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 1. Executive Summary The purpose of developing this portfolio is for practicing the management of a well-diversified portfolio for almost 10 weeks starting from 21st September to 6th November. As portfolio managers, we were requested to construct a portfolio which combines different kind of investment including bonds, stocks and Real Estate Investment Trustees. In order to create a diversified portfolio, the following securities were chosen which relates to different industries, sectors and fields: The Colorado Bond Shares Tax-Exempt (HICOX) as the bond mutual fund which operates in taxexempt investment. The Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARE) as the portfolio REIT which relates to the Real Estate Market. Apple Inc. (AAPL) stock which comes under the consumer goods sector and the industry of electronic equipment (Technology). Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) stock which operates under the healthcare sector and the industry of Drug Manufacturing. FedEx Corporation (FDX) stock which relates to the service sector (transportation) specializing in the Air Delivery and Freight Industry. Nike Inc. (NKE) stock which operates in the consumer goods sector and the industry of Textile Apparel Footwear and Accessories. Basically, the selection of the stocks was based on the personal investment philosophy which has been developed based on 2 principles: the growth seeking investment and the fundamental philosophy of tracking the firms’ financial performance in term of management effectiveness, valuation, profitability and financial strength. In term of the investment strategy followed, it includes 3 steps: planning, execution and feedback. The planning includes the development of investment policy statement (IPS) for investors who are r between 20-23 years old with medium wealth, risk-aversion tolerance and an objective of maximizing their wealth. While the execution step is applied through the bottom-up strategy starting with looking closer at the firm’s financial performance during the past years using the following ratios: P/E Ratios, Beta, Price/Sales, Price/Book, Price/CF, Price/Free CF, Earnings Quality, Sales 5yr. Growth Rate, Current Ratio, Page 2 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment LTD/Equity, Total Debt/ Equity, Interest Coverage, EBITD 5yr. Average, ROA 5yr. Average, ROE 5yr. Average and Asset Turnover. Comparing the firms’ performance to the performance of its industry, sector and the overall market(S&P500) was helpful approach to make decision whether to invest in that particular firm or not. A closer look was given to different bonds and REIT to choose the most suitable one for the portfolio. Examining the broker recommendation and earnings forecasts for each firm was part the execution step as well which helped finally in allocating a percentage of total investment fund ($100,000) for each of the stocks, the bond and the REIT. Basically, a higher percentage of fund were allocated for the securities that are characterized by their sustainable growth such as Nike and the REIT while a lower percentage were allocated for securities’ with fluctuated growth. In the last step of feedback, the overall performance of the portfolio was evaluated by measuring the performance of each security individually through the Holding Period Return Calculation (HPR) and their contribution to the portfolio return which is estimated at (9.34%). Moreover, the sensitivity of the individual securities and the portfolio to the market changes was evaluated through calculating beta which is estimated at 0.4 for the portfolio. Additionally, the portfolio return was adjusted through the Jenson’s alpha indicating that the portfolio has an excess return on its component because of having a positive alpha estimated at 7.3%. Finally, it was found most of the IPS objectives were achieved as the investor earned around $93,600 as return on this investment. However, a conclusion and several recommendations were provided to improve the investment strategy in future. Page 3 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 2. Introduction As future investors, students are expected to identify, create and manage a well-diversified financial portfolio. Mainly, the main objective of this report is to select 6 different securities including: a Bond Mutual Fund, a publicly traded Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) and 4 stocks with a minimum of one long position and one short position on common shares, which will be combined together to produce a well-diversified portfolio. Hence, the report aims to reflect the process of managing that portfolio for a specified period (probably 10 weeks starting from 21st September to 6th November). Another objective is to measure the efficiency and the successfulness of the investment strategy followed in relation to the characteristics of the investment philosophy policy. To meet the report objectives, several calculation were made including: the expected risk (beta), how much the individual securities and the portfolio in general were capable to generate return at the end of the period and after risk adjustment in order to evaluate the overall portfolio performance. This report will comprise a detailed explanation of the stocks chosen, the financial ratios which was used to determine and assess how productive, efficient yet profitable they are. Therefore, a bottom up approach was followed by looking at the company’s financial situation first, as more focus were given to the figures and the performance of the firms, in parallel to assessing the economic factors as a whole. Both the Bond and the REIT invested in, has been included in the report with a full description of what they are, and how well have they preforming and how much have the yielded and contributed to the portfolio in general. The find allocation and individual fund contribution was included in the report as well. This Report will help in showcasing our investment strategy, and how it has been utilized in various investment processes in order to guarantee the highest return. Page 4 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 3. Development of Personal Investment Philosophy In order to be able to manage the portfolio successfully, a clear working plan should be identified starting with the investment philosophy. Basically, the investment philosophy is based on our conviction in seeking high earning companies that are forecasted to have high growth of business. Hence our investment strategy is seeking growth. Therefore we made sure that we choose companies that have a higher earnings growth, which is higher than the market. Sports Apparel and footwear have been an emerging industry ever since, investors started to invest heavily in various companies. Such industries have big names such as Adidas, Nike and Rebook. All of those companies where able to establish their names through the numerous products, event and player endorsements. Especially after how the trend shifted and became one of the strongest industries. We also decided to diversify and include other sectors such as Technology, Air Delivery and Freight services, and health which all have a bright expected future. In terms of our growth strategy we assessed the companies in term of their earnings quality ratio in the past four years. To illustrate, , Nike has a constant growth of earning quality between 2009 and 2012 indicating its sustainability as the ratio increase gradually from 105% in 2009 to 117% in 2012. Besides, the ratio of earning quality for apples was 120% in 2013, higher than its ratio recorded in 2012 at 99% indicating a small fluctuation. Accordingly, both firms displayed a common prediction that their earning growth will continue because probably the firms with a stable earnings growth, their stocks are expected to grow as well. The only disadvantage of choosing the investment philosophy as growth seeking is the time horizon, however it has high level of efficiency and reward. Moreover we also have chosen a second investing strategy which is the fundamental philosophy, for our strong belief that examining the company’s financial ratios will aid understanding the key indicators of the organizational performance. Hence we have assessed various financial ratios such as management effectiveness, Profitability Ratios, Financial Strength and Valuation and leverage Ratios. All of the mentioned ratios have helped us in identifying which companies are doing well and how effectively have they been performing in terms of the market. Therefore, tracking the company’s performance, its history and expected futures were helpful to support our growth investment seeking. Those two strategies has aided us in pin pointing which of them are performing better, hence facilitating for use the fund allocation process. We have allocated larger funds for the star performing companies Page 5 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment which are characterized by their sustainable growth, where as we allocated a smaller fund for the normal performing funds which. Hence based on the above mentioned strategies, we have decided to choose the following companies Nike, FedEx, Apple, Johnson and Johnson, Alexandria Real Estate Equities (AREE) and Colorado Bond Shares a Tax-Exempt (HICOX). More funds were allocated to Nike, Apple, FedEx and the REIT as their past great performance suggests higher growth for their stock. However, the rest would have a lower portion of the total investment cash (100,000) because of their fluctuated performance. Page 6 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 4. Investment Strategy Since we have already established the investment philosophy and the stocks that will make up our portfolio, the next step will be on deciding our goals, risk tolerance and guide lines, in other words we have to align our vision with our goals. Moreover we have decided to follow three steps that will enable us to produce a well-rounded managed portfolio, which combines all of our visions and goals together. The first stage is the planning stage, where we have to determine the following factors age, risk tolerance, goals, and preference. In other words an IPS (Investment Policy Statement) document that where we can always check as we move further into the three phases. This will always guide us if we are going in the right direction or not. Since we are a group of investors ranging from 20 -23 years old students, classified as medium wealth individuals. Therefore we cannot bear any huge losses, we decided to go with less risky stocks, however went for riskier stocks if we will be compensated for such a risk. Hence we decided on the perfect combination of risk free investments, low risk investment and high risk investments. In other words we are risk-averse investors that are willing to take risky investments, only if we will be compensated for the risk. To insure the portfolio diversification, the REIT of Alexandrian Real Estate Equities was chosen beside the selection of a semi-risk free investment through the Mutual Fund Bond “Colorado Bond Shares a Tax-Exempt (HICOX). Our objectives in managing such a portfolio are the following: Increase the return of the portfolio by 5 – 8 percent. Focus on the on the companies that have high returns and promising increase in the future growth. Companies that have their vision and mission aligned with our goals and beliefs as ours. To create a diversified portfolio that will be able to accommodate market changes, and not get affected by any change in the market. The second stage is the execution stage, which include the bottom-up strategy where we started first with researching and analysing the company’s financial performance. We started to conduct all of the above mentioned ratios. We started to compare their performance against the industry and the S&P Page 7 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 500. We did not just base our decisions only on the financial ratios; we have also examined the market news, stock history and broker analysis and recommendations. We had to insure that we combine all both the news and the numbers in order to have a well-rounded overview of all the elements that can affect the stock individually and the portfolio as a whole. In order to be able to find the well-priced and under-priced stocks, we concentrate more on the P/E ratio for each company which indicates how well the firm’s stock is priced which will be highlighted through the financial ratio section of this report. The final stage is the feedback stage, where we go back to our IPS and insure that we are aligned to our objectives and insure that we are performing well, moreover generating the profit margin mention in the IPS. Throughout the feedback stage we will be continuously assessing our position, and adjust our portfolio based on the different changes that will arise from the buying and selling, and any expected changes in the market. Page 8 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 5. Outlook and Research on the Four Stocks Selected The following 6 securities from different sectors have been chosen in relation to the investment strategy of diversifying the portfolio. Moreover, additional reason for selecting them will be analyzed throughout this part: 6.1 Description of the Firm and Reasons for selecting it 6.1.1 Firm 1: Apple Inc. (Stock ticker: AAPL), Sector: Consumer Goods, Industry: Electronic Equipment Historically, Apple- the American Company- was founded by Steve Jobs along with its co-founders: Ronald Wayn and Steve Wozniak on 1st of April 1976. Geographically, it is headquartered in Cupertino, California. Taxonomically, Apple Inc. operates under the sector of Consumer Goods in the Electronic Equipment (technology) Industry (Appendix 1). Initially, Apple was established to make personal Computers (PCs), but currently it designs, develops, manufactures and sells a variety of consumer electronics including: mobile communication and media devices, movable digital music players besides the PCs. Particularly, the line of MAC computers, the iPhone (smartphone), the iPad (tablet computer) and the iPod (media player) are the best-traded lines of Apples’ products. Additionally, Apples sells consumer software, online services, network solutions, accessories and applications. The most popular software are the operating systems such as OS X and iOS , the creativity and productivity suites including iLife and iWork, the web browser (Safari) plus the media browser (iTunes). Apples’ stock, which is a piece of S&P500 stock indexes, is publicly traded in the NASDAQ exchange (AAPL). Timothy Cook is the current CEO of Apple, who has been assigned after Steve Jobs death in 2011. The 1st iPhone announced by Apple in the Macworld Expo on January 9th, 2007, causing a significant increase in its share price to reach about $97 on that particular day. Collectively, Apple has a total of 92,500 permanent and full time employees who are working in 425 retail stores distributed in 14 countries. Apple has different segments of target markets to reach including individual consumers, small and mid-sized enterprises, educational and governmental customer (Yahoo Finance, 2014). Page 9 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Currently, Apple is classified as the second largest information technology company in the world in term of revenue generation which is estimated lastly at 182 billion in October 2014, following Samsung Electronics. Furthermore, it is considered as third largest mobile phone maker and the largest publicly traded corporation in the world in term of market capitalization which is estimated at 669.65 Billion by Yahoo Finance (2014). In Addition, Apple is the largest music retailer worldwide through its online App store and iTunes store (Villapaz, 2014). In 2013, Apple ranked 6th among the most successful 500 companies in the world as identified by Forbes Magazine. Moreover, Apple has successful marketing strategies with high level of brand loyalty and possesses the most valuable brand in the world, which is estimated at 118.9 billion (Stuart, 2014). Accordingly, Apple’s good standing position financially and reputably creates a preferred and trustful opportunity for investors to invest in. Along with the previous reasons for selecting Apple stocks to be part of the portfolio, the main reason is due to the continued growth of its share prices which is estimated at 500% cumulatively during the past years. Moreover, investing in Apple is considered as stable investment which was proven after the death of Steve Jobs. To illustrate, the expectations of Apple’s failure was offset by nonstop expansion as the company release more developed products including iPhone 5, 5s and 5c, iPad Air, iPad mini and Apple watch to continue generating money in the years followed his death. Furthermore, Apple products are being used everywhere and in every field especially with the technological and globalization revolution that swept the world indicating a bright future. For instance, schools in Singapore have begun utilizing the application and features of Apple products to deliver practical method of technological education (Apple Inc., 2014). Another sign of Apple’s future expansion is the start phase on designing an iPhone which is well-matched hearing aids for people who suffer from auditory problems. The release of this product is expected to raise the price of Apple Stock in future (Apple Inc., 2014). Further reasons for selecting Apple stock will be demonstrated through the good sense of its financial ratios in the next part. Page 10 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 6.1.2 Firm 2: Johnson & Johnson (stock ticker: JNJ), Sector: Health Care, Industry: Drug Manufacturer-Major Johnson & Johnson (J & J) is a multinational American Company which was found initially by the three Johnson brothers Robert Wood, James Wood and Edward Mead in 1885 by creating a surgical dressing that is ready for use. However, the first J&J product was produced in 1886 and the company incorporated in 1887. Geographically, it is headquarter in New Brunswick, New Jersey in the United State, while the consumer partition is based in Skillman, New Jersey. Basically, J&J operates in the Health Care Sector and the industry of Drug Manufacturing (JNJ, n.d). In general, J&J involves in researching and developing, manufacturing and selling various types of health care products in the world. Particularly, J&J operations are concentrated in 3 segments including medical devices and diagnostics, Consumer and Pharmaceutical. In 2013, the company’s total revenue estimated at $71,312,000 was contributed by 39% from Pharmaceutical segment, 40% from the medical devices segment and 21% from consumer products (JNJ, n.d). The table below identifies the types of products provided by J&J in each segment: Page 11 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment J&J’s shares, which is a component of the S&P500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average, has been publicly traded in the NYSE (stock ticker: JNJ) since 1944. Currently, Alex Gorsky is J&J’s CEO. Besides, the company has more than 275 subsidiaries operating in over 60 countries, while J&J products are sold in more than 165 countries in the world. Besides, J&J’s human resources consist of approximately 128,700 full-time employees. “Our Credo challenges us to put the needs and well-being of the people we serve first”. This is the philosophy that guides the business of J&J and it’s a blueprint for long term growth and sustainability considering their responsibilities towards, employees and shareholders (JNJ, n.d). One of the reasons for investing in Johnson &Johnson is its strong brand enrichment as investors are exposed to both surgical and pharmaceutical industries just by possessing J&J stock. Thus, it is considered as a double diversification strategy of 2 in 1 that is highly preferred by investors. Besides, J&J has a well-known brand that enhances its financial performance. For example, approving the Sirturo1 by the Food and Drug Administration on December 31st, 2012 caused the firm’s share prices to increase up to $108 due to this single factor. Another example is that in 2012, Remicade’s2 sales reached $6.1 billion for J&J amounting to 10% of the total firm's revenue from one drug only (Stoffel, 2013). Globally, J&J is the 6th largest consumer health, biologics and pharmaceuticals company. Besides, J&J is considered as the largest and the most diverse company in the world in the field of medical devices and diagnostics. Moreover, J&J was listed as number 6 by the INTERBRAND’s report of 2013 pointing the Best Global Green Brands. According to JNJ’s website, Johnson & Johnson was successful to maintain its position as “the ONLY healthcare company in the top 50 and highest ranked personal care company”. In addition, J&J is one of the 2 exclusive companies that have been on the Management Strategies 100 Best list for 28 years, since the list was existed. Accordingly, tracking J&J’s stable position as the market leader for the medical devices and the healthcare sector for a long period will result in preferable, reassured and suited landscape to invest in the firm. To illustrate, J&J’s constant performance-consisting of 52 consecutive years of dividend rises and 30 successive years of adjusted earnings growth- is another simulative reasons for investing in J&J. Besides, J&J concentrates heavily on innovation plus research and development as they are the essence of the healthcare sector. Accordingly, J&J is well-positioned to face any operational instability in terms 1 2 It is a tuberculosis drug that is the first of its kind developed by J&J for the purpose of fighting the infection. It is “a product that treats Crohn's disease and rheumatoid arthritis”. Page 12 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment of technological advancements due to its professionalism in this area resulting in lowering the risk of the investment as preferred by the investor. However, reducing risk is not accompanied by return reduction in the case of J&J because it generates a total return of 8.9% for investor exceeding the S&P500 total return of 7.4%. This goes in line with the investor desires (Mirza, 2012). 6.1.3 Firm 3: FedEx Corporation (stock ticker: FDX), Sector: Services, Industry: Air Delivery and Freight Services FedEx is an American-international corporation which is specialized in export and import activities. Historically, the company has passed through three stages. Initially, it was founded in 1971 by Frederick W. Smithas as the Federal Express Corporation which was incorporated in 1998 to be FDX Corporation. Finally it became FedEx Corporation in January 2000. Moreover, FedEx’s Headquarter is located in Memphis, Tennessee in the US. Operationally, FedEx operates locally (in USA) as well as internationally the Service Sector and the industry of Air Delivery and Freight Services. FedEx provides a variety of shipping and logistics services both for individuals and businesses including the following operational facilities: Express, Freight, Ground and accelerated Delivery Service. Averagely, FedEx’s Daily operation exceeds 10.5 million of shipments of its operational facilities provided. Particularly, FedEx has 10 air express hubs and 1,250 stations to provide Express Delivery Service, 370 centers for Freight Service with more than 500 delivery terminals and 33 ground hubs for the Ground Services. Generally, FedEx’s offices are located in more than 1,800 locations with a total of approximately 700 Service Centers in the World . In term of Air operation volume, FedEx has around 656 aircrafts to serve in more than 375 airports in the world. Furthermore, FedEx is a component of S&P 500 index that has been listed in NYSE for public trade since December 1978. Currently, Frederick W. Smith, is the chairman, CEO and President of FedEx. Collectively, FedEx represents $48 billion market share in its industry with more than 300, 000 full-time employees who provides FedEx services in more than 220 countries and territories covering all addresses in the US. These statistical figures indicate the successfulness of the company operations worldwide which would create a great investment opportunity. Besides, FedEx is considered to be one of the leading logistics service providers in the industry today. To illustrate, FedEx is ranked 1st in the delivery industry and 8th among the “Most Admired Company” list as classified by the Fortune Magazine in 2014. Also, the Page 13 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Magazine has identified FedEx as one of the 100 Best Places to Work For. According to the Reputation Institute, FedEx is ranked 8th among the “Most Reputable Companies in America” list. Accordingly, FedEx sounds well-positioned reputably which encourages selecting its stock as part of the portfolio. Along with the previous reasons, choosing FedEx as one of the portfolio securities goes in line with our investment philosophy and strategy of. Statistically, FedEx has a great financial progression from 2009 to 2014 which is reflected in its revenue growth. To illustrate, FedEx’s Revenue growth moved significantly throughout the previous years to reach $45.6 billion as the end of September 2014. Moreover, the Earnings per Share figures for FedEx have grown progressively from $4.90 in 2011 to $6.75(FedEx Investors Relation, n.d). By tracking the firm’s financial performance in the past years, we can expect a bright financial future for FedEx, leading to achieve the investment objectives of maximizing profit. This will be proved in the next part of analyzing the financial figures. 6.1.4 Firm 4: Nike Inc. (stock ticker: NKE), Sector: Consumer Good, Industry: Textile Apparel Footwear & Accessories Nike Inc. is an American international corporation which designs, develops, manufactures, markets and sells a variety of sports related products including footwear, apparel, accessories, equipment and services. Besides manufacturing sports related products and equipment, it also operates retail stores under the name of Niketown. Geographically, Nike is headquartered in the Portland metropolitan area of the US generally and near Beaverton, Oregon Particularly. Phil Knight is the Chairman of Nike while Mark Parker is its President and CEO (Nike Inc., n.d). Historically, Nike was founded on 25th of January 1964 by Phil Knight and Bill Bowerman as Blue Ribbon Sports to distribute the products of Onitsuka Tiger, which is a shoe maker from Japan. Later, it became Nike Inc. officially on 30th of May 1971. Throughout Nike’s history, Nick has expanded progressively by purchasing more acquisition starting with the Cole Haan purchase in 1988 and ending with the two subsidiaries Hurley International and Converse Inc. purchase. Similarly, Nike has extended its product line gradually from running shoes only to skateboarding equipment that are lighter than their competitors by 30%. Accordingly, the progressive expansion is an indicator of its successful management and financial strategies, leading to a stable rather than fluctuated growth which is preferable for investor to reduce the risk of sharp fluctuations in his investment . Page 14 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Generally, Nike has more than 44,000 full-time employees working in Nike offices which are located in more than 45 countries rather than US. Besides, Nike deals with more than 700 shops in the world. Most of Nike’s factories are placed in Asia including China, India, Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan, Pakistan, Vietnam and Philippines. Nike is considered as one of the biggest suppliers of athletic shoes and apparel and one of the leaders in term of manufacturing sports equipment. Additionally, Nike owns the most valuable brand among sport companies, which is estimated at approximately $19 billion. Financially, Nike generated total revenue of $24.1 billion in the first half of 2012 year, leading to a total net income (profit) in the same year. This revenue was generated by 60% of Footwear Sales, 34% of 34% of Apparel and 6% of Equipment. The Previous figures indicate a healthy financial and marketing performance that encourages investing in Nike. Additional reasons for selecting Nike are due to its competitive advantages over its competitors which are represented in two areas. One is the cost advantage of producing similar or even higherquality products at lower costs and expenses. The second area is the differentiation advantage of providing a unique product or a service that increase the customer willingness to pay a price, exceeding the additional expenses on differentiation. Both of them lead to reach higher rate of potential profit than its competitor, matching the investors’ interest (Mishra, 2011). Another reason is that the company itself is well-diversified because of providing different lines of products as mentioned earlier. Therefore, if one line suffers from a loss the rest can recover leading to reduce the risk for the investors. One further reason is Nike’s sustainability in term of achieving longterm growth which will be displayed later (Nike Inc, 2014). Page 15 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 6.2 Financial Ratios The following financial ratios are gathered for the 4 previous stocks, their sectors, their industries and the S&P500. The overall interpretation of the following data encourages the selection of the stocks to be part of the portfolio Securities. 1- Price-to-Earning (P/E) Ratio: The Firm’s The Firm’s S&P 500 Stock industry Ratio Sector Ratio Index Ratio 16.32 13.90 14.93 19.92 21.60 23.45 firm’s P/E Ratio Apple Inc. (AAPL) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) FedEx Corporation (FDX) Nike Corporation (NKE) 18.6 23.49 23.90 30.82 25.48 25.50 14.93 Measuring the firm’s market rating, whether it is cheap or expensive, and how much the market is willing to pay in return for the firm’s earning through the P/E Ratio could be a sign to buy its stock or not. By comparing the current share price to the Earning per share for each of the 4 stocks, we can estimate that the higher P/E ratio is more likely to be converted into higher growth of earnings in the future. Relatively, the previous thesis is applied to Nike Corporation as it has the highest P/E Ratio among others (25.48) which reflects a faster growth and a lower risk associating with its expected earnings. This goes in line with the preferences of potential investors to include the stock within their portfolio. In spite of the fact that Apple has the lowest P/E ratio (16.32), it exceeds the number recorded for its main competitor (Samsung’s Electronics P/E Ratio = 6.28 ) its sector and its industry. This reflects a valuable image for Apple in the investors’ eyes, as we expect that Apple’s earning will grow higher than its competitor and the overall industry. While J&J and FedEx have a medium ratio estimated at 19.92 and 23.49 respectively, which are lower than the average P/E ratio for their industries amounting to Page 16 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 23.45 and 30.82 respectively. Also, we can see that FedEx Nike’s figures are very close to the P/E ratio of their industry, proving their stability in the market. Moving to the comparison among the industries’ P/E ratio, it is noticed that Nike’s industry is the winner again as it has the highest P/E ratio which is equivalent to (25.50). Thus, we expect that Nike’s industry will record an extremely high earning growth in future compared to the other industries, which have relatively lower figures of P/E ratio. However, the comparison between the 4 firms’ sectors has a different theme as the highest P/E figure was recorded by FedEx (the service sector) with (30.82). Generally, S&P 500 has a positive and not very low figure of P/E ratio which is 19.2. On the other hand, firms with very low ratio, which indicate overlooking the stock or a “vote of no confidence” by the market, are avoided during the process of stock selection as they do not suit our investment strategy. 2- Beta (as of 19th September): The Firm’s The Firm’s S&P 500 Stock industry Beta Sector Beta Index Beta 1.26 1.14 0.74 0.84 1.10 1 firm’s Beta Apple Inc. (AAPL) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) FedEx Corporation (FDX) Nike Corporation (NKE) 1 1.30 0.94 1.28 0.78 0.42 0.74 Measuring the stock price sensitivity to the market price movement and estimating its systematic risk could affect the stock selection criteria based on the investors’ aversion to risk. To illustrate, FedEx has the highest beta which is 1.30 indicating that the stock risk exceeds the average risk in the market in exchange for a higher return than the market return which meets our investment philosophy of being risk averse. Moreover, FedEx’s beta exceeds the figure recorded for its industry where the beta equals to 1.14 meaning that FedEx have a higher systematic risk and return and more sensitive to market Page 17 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment fluctuation than its industry. The same thesis is applied for Apple as it has a very close figure to FedEx and exceeds the beta of its industry as well. However, the other 2 stocks have a beta figure that is less than 1, which means that they are less sensitive to the market volatility and will have rate of return less than the market return. The rationale behind this selection is that our investment philosophy is based on disliking risk. Particularly, Nike has the lowest systematic risk (sensitivity to the market changes) as it has the lowest beta (0.78), while JNJ sets in the middle in term of responding to market volatility since its beta is 0.84, which is very close to reflect the market changes. Moving to the industries level, we can observe the same order for the 4 stocks’ industries as Apple’s industry has the highest beta which is estimated at 1.14 while Nike’s industry has the lowest beat which is estimated at 0.42. Therefore, we expect that the industry of apple (electronic equipment) has much higher return and risk than the industry of Nike (Footwear) has compared to the market risk and return. Conversely, the case is different while comparing between the sectors’ beta as J&J has a systematic risk and sensitivity to market which is equivalent to 1. This means that J&J’s sector (healthcare) has an average rate of both risk and return that is equal to the average market risk and return. Therefore, we can consider that J&J’s sector as a mirror of index, meaning that it will reflect whatever happens in the market. The same analysis is applied for S&P500 since it is and index and has a very close figure to 1 usually. However, FedEx’s sector has the highest beta figure (1.28), meaning that it has a higher risk than the market risk which we expect to be compensated for a higher return than the market. On the other hand, Nike and Apple’s sector (which is the same “Consumer Good”) has the lowest sensitivity to market changes which is onlyo.74, expecting a lower return than the market. As overall, the mixture of different grades of beta, focusing mostly on stocks that have a beta of less than 1 is due to the balance of risk level required by the nature of being risk-averse investor. Page 18 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 3- Price/Sales Ratio (TTM): The Firm’s The Firm’s S&P 500 Stock industry Ratio Sector Ratio Index Ratio 3.62 3.35 1.30 4.09 3.67 2.53 The firm’s Ratio Apple Inc. (AAPL) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) FedEx Corporation (FDX) Nike Corporation (NKE) 1.8 1.05 1.32 1.62 2.90 2.47 1.30 This is another indicator that guides the stock selection because as the firm’s price/sales ratio goes down, investing in this firm becomes more attractive for the investor. Generally, the ratio shows how each dollar of the firm’s sales is valued by comparing the stock price of the firm to its revenues. Starting with the firms, it is observed from the above table that J&J and Apple have a greater price value of one dollar of its sales which is equal to 4.09 and 3.62 respectively. However, Nike and FedEx have a poorer price value of one dollar of its revenue, considering their p/sales ratio of 1.05 and 2.90 respectively. Although FedEx and Nike seem to be more attractive to invest in than Apple and J&J as they have a lower P/Sales ratio, the difference of industry and sectors nature for each sector should justify why Apple and J&J have higher ratio. To illustrate, there is nothing goes wrong with investing in J&J and Apple work as they work very closely to the industry value (3.35, 3.67 respectively). While the industries of FedEx and Nike have a lower price value compared to the other two. In terms of Sectors, J&J has the highest price value estimated at 2.53 compared to the other 3 sectors. While the sector of consumer good (for Apple and Nike)has the lowest price value of the sales’ dollars generated in this sector (0.95). Similarly, S&P 500 has also a low positive figure. Page 19 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 4- Price/Book Ratio The Firm’s The Firm’s S&P 500 Stock industry Ratio Sector Ratio Index Ratio 5.93 4.10 2.14 3.98 3.78 5.61 The firm’s Ratio Apple Inc. (AAPL) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) FedEx Corporation (FDX) Nike Corporation (NKE) 2.7 3.22 6.17 -0.68 7.54 5.50 2.14 Measuring the Price/Book ratio is useful approach to find the undervalued stocks by comparing their market value to their book value and this is part of our investment strategy of stock selection approach. To illustrate, the ratio provides a sign for the company in term of how much is being bought, and what is the amount remaining in case of going bankrupted. By observing the table, we can figure that all the stocks are undervalued as they all have positive figures of the Price/Book ratio. In particular, we can assume that Nike is the safest investment because it has the highest ratio that could secure it from bankruptcy. This is served as evidence of being secured which is preferred by the risk-averse investors who tend to minimize the risk as much as possible. However, the other three stocks have lower ratio. When we compare between industries, the case is different because the Air Delivery industry (FedeX) considers as the most secured one amongst the others, since it has the highest figure (6.17) followed by Nike’s industry and then Apple’s industry. While the riskiest industry in term of exposing to bankruptcy is Drug manufacture (J&J) indicated by its low ratio (3.7). Also, Sectors comparison has a different them because the healthcare sector is viewed as the most secured one because it is one of the necessities for all people resulting in the highest Price/Book value ratio. However, the only negative figure is due to FedEx Service Sector which we can interpret by the Page 20 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment market belief of being overvalued or the poor earnings/return poor or (negative) return on its asset.In fact, S&P figure is fairly low but it works closely to Apple and Nike’s Sector. 5- Price/CF Ratio (TTM) for 3rd Quarter: The firm’s Ratio Apple Inc. (AAPL) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) FedEx Corporation (FDX) Nike Corporation (NKE) 319.56 (2nd Quarter of 2014) 56.05 The Firm’s The Firm’s S&P 500 Stock industry Ratio Sector Ratio Index Ratio 109.5 159 13.80 23285.45 995.5 10.10 15.50 64.03 24.10 21.90 159 This ratio and the following one are more conservative indicators of the firm’s profitability in term of generating real cash which the investors cares about in order to decide whether to include the stock within the portfolio or not. Therefore, it measures the attractiveness of the investment. Besides, they are helpful to apply our investment strategy that is based on finding the undervalued stocks. As seen in the table, there are all high positive numbers which meets investor’s preferences. However, we can view Apple as the most attractive investment because of its highest figure (319.56), reflecting its high ability to generates more cash flow (Profit). Subsequently, Apple is followed by J&J, Nike and then FedEx. Also, Apple’s industry is again the most attractive one, compared to other industries as it has the highest ability to generate cash flow estimated at (109.5) followed by Nike, FedEx and then J&J. However, the P/CF ratio (TTM) is still not recorded for JNJ Industry for the 3rd Quarter. Comparing between sectors’ ratio have completely different view, because JNJ’s Sector has a very large ratio indicating the successfulness of healthcare sector in term of generating cash flow (23285.45). While FedEx has the lowest level of cash flow generation estimated at (64.03). The S&P 500 has a high figure as well that exceeds all the 4 stocks. Page 21 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 6- Price/FCF Ratio (TTM) The Firm’s The Firm’s S&P 500 Stock industry Ratio Sector Ratio Index Ratio 19.50 7.90 30.79 45.80 34.90 21.48 The firm’s Ratio Apple Inc. (AAPL) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) FedEx Corporation (FDX) Nike Corporation (NKE) 20.73 120.40 52.50 30.76 67.20 48.60 30.79 This ratio compares the market price of the firm to the annual FCF level generated by the firm operations. Besides, it measures whether the company is cheap or expensive based on its ability to generate cash flow to be paid as dividend for its shareholders. Therefore, it indicates whether the firm need to enlarge the asset acquisition or maintain the same level of assets. Looking closely to the table above, FedEx and its industry are considered as the most expensive one compared to the other three as it has the highest figure of Price/FCF ratio (120.40). According to GuruFocus statistics, FedEx have a higher P/FCF ratio than 80% of the total companies (1202 Firms) in its industry which is a sign for the enormous amount of cash flow (profit) generated by FedEx. However, JNJ’s sector of “Healthcare” is the cheapest one with a figure of (21.48), reflecting a lower performance than the other 3 sectors in the area of generating cash flow to be available to dividend distribution. Generally, S&P 500 has very close figure to JNJ’s sector. Page 22 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 7- Earning Quality as the end of September of Each year Apple Inc. (AAPL) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) 108.46% 303.2% FedEx Corporation (FDX) 85.53% 2010 118.06% 27.4% 148.19% 115.02% 2011 116.20% 41.8% 64.55% 114.77% 2012 99.21% 40.7% 58.65% 117.77% 2013 120.42% 84.3% 95.57% 99.79% 2014 126.36% 35.0% 78.79% N/A Earning Quality (%)3 (Source: GuruFocus) 2009 Nike Inc. (NKE) 105.68% According to the table above, it can be concluded that Apple has the highest earning quality indicating the firm’s capabilities to generate sales at lower expenses. During the past 5 years, it can be figured out that Apple’s earning quality has recorded a significant drop in 2012 while it started to recover in the following two years to reach its highest at 126%. Nike comes in the second place as it has lower numbers, to reach its lowest in 2013 at 99.79% because of the economic recession. For the rest of years, Nike has achieved a constant growth in term of generating sales at controllable expenses. Despite of the fact that Apple has greater quality of earning in figures, Nike can be considered as more sustainable because the earning quality fluctuations for Nike are less than for Apple which is more preferable for the investor. Thirdly, FedEx sets in the middle as its earning quality figures have increased sharply from 85% in 2009 to 145% in 2011. However, it started to fluctuate up and down in the next years. Lastly, J&J has the least earning quality which means that the firm is able to generate sales however; the cost of research and development spent on drugs has started to become inefficient in the recent years. This result in sharp fluctuation in J&J’s earning quality as they dropped from its peak in 2009 at 303% to 35% in 2014. Therefore, J&J needs to concentrate more on managing its operational expenses effectively. 3 As calculated through the Excel sheet. Page 23 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 8- Sales 5y Growth rate as the End of September of each year 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Apple Inc. (AAPL) 14.44% 52.02% 66.90% 43.62% 9.55% 6.72% Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) -2.90% -10.194% -0.49% 5.52% 3.45% 5.92% FedEx Corporation (FDX) -6.4% -2.15% 13.6% 8.59% 3.77% 2.89% Nike Corporation (NKE) 2.94% -0.8% 10.17% 15.47% 5.01% 9.68% According to the above table, Apple is the only company that has not recorded any negative growth rate compared to the rest during the period from 2009 to 2014 which indicates its successful management strategies to control its operational expenses. Besides, it can be observed that the 4 companies suffered from a negative or recorded just small growth rate between 2009 and 2010 due to the effect of the economic crises that cause a significant market collapse. FedEx and J&J are the most effected companies by the crises they have higher betas (sensitivity to market volatility) as explained earlier. This can be observed through their significant drop in sale’s growth during the crises. The growth of Apple’s sales increased significantly from 14.44% in 2009 2010 to 52% in 2013, reaching 66.90% in 2011 due to their product lines expansion including advanced models of iPads and iPhones smartphones. Besides, it could be an indicator of how the technological globalization helped Apple to expand their business rapidly and generate high profits by increasing brand loyalty and extending their target market groups as said earlier. Generally, the firms have fluctuated figures of sales growth during the last 5 years representing the unexpected or unique changes in the market causing their sales to go up and down in respond to these changes. Page 24 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment The Sales 5 year Growth rate (Source: Daily Finance) The firm’s Rate Apple Inc. (AAPL) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) FedEx Corporation (FDX) Nike Corporation (NKE) The Firm’s S&P 500 Stock industry Rate Index Rate 35.01% -2.7% 3.84% -3.30% 5.12% 4.92% 8.92% 11.59% 3.39% According to the above table, we can observe that Apple has the highest sales 5yr growth rate indicating its successfulness and expansion while JNJ has the lowest figure. This is not necessary interpreted that JNJ was not successful at that period because of specific firm factors, it might be due to uncontrollable reasons. Apple is followed immediately by Nike in terms of its sales growth. In term of industries, JNJ and Apple’s industries have negative growth rate indicating unexpected changes in the overall market that lead to affect the overall industry sales growth. In fact, S&P 500 has a lower rate than all the 4 stocks estimated at 3.39% indicating a small and slow process of generating sales. 9- Current Ratio (Source: Daily Finance) The firm’s Ratio Apple Inc. (AAPL) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) FedEx Corporation (FDX) Nike Corporation (NKE) The Firm’s industry Ratio The Firm’s Sector S&P 500 Ratio (Source: Stock Index CSIMarket) Ratio 1.10 1.30 N/A 2.61 1.70 0.85 1.65 1.80 1.70 2.18 2.81 3.30 N/A Page 25 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Generally, the 4 companies have a current ratio of more than 1 which represents their high ability to meet their short-term obligations when they become due. In other words, all the stocks do not suffer from serious liquidity problems as their current assets exceed their current liabilities. Analytically, this goes in line with the interest of the current shareholders and potential investors because the more liquid the firm is the more demand on its stock by investors and the higher stock prices they will be. By looking closely to the figure, it is obvious that Nike has the highest current ratio followed immediately by JNJ and then Fedex, indicating that they have sufficient amount of capable resources to be repaid for their short term commitments. On the other hand, Apple has the lowest ratio which means that they might face little issues related to the repayment of short-term obligations. By comparing the figures to the market (S&P 500), it can be concluded that all the firms have higher ratio than the S&P (1.65) except for Apple, meaning that all the 3 firms exceeds the market performance in term of meeting their short-term borrowings. At the industries level, we can figure that all the above industries are healthy and fairly able to pay their short-term debt as their figures of current ratio are located between 1.50 - 3. However, the highest one again is Nike’s industry while FedEx and JNJ have the same number. 10- LTD/Equity Ratio (QRM) The Firm’s The Firm’s S&P 500 Stock industry Ratio Sector Ratio Index Ratio 0.19 0.39 0.32 0.17 0.39 0.53 0.27 0.67 0.79 0.11 0.16 1.34 The firm’s Ratio Apple Inc. (AAPL) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) FedEx Corporation (FDX) Nike Corporation (NKE) 0.73 This ratio measures firm’s exposure to debt commitments and its debt leverage. Thus, the lower the ratio figure is, the better is the financial situation of the firm because there are less debt and liabilities imposed on the firm. In general, all the stocks are not risky as they have relatively low ratios figures. To Page 26 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment illustrate, Nike has the lowest ratio, followed by JNJ and AAPL which have very close figures to each other. This indicates their little exposure to debt commitments, resulting in reducing the risk of investing in the firm as preferred by risk-averse investors. However, FedEx has the highest ratio, meaning that it has a greater level of leverage compared to the other 3 firms. The same scenario applied at the level of industries, it is obvious that FedEx’s industry and sector have the highest figure again; indicating that investing in FedEx is viewed as more risky by investor than the other because they are more likely to depend more on debt rather than equity to finance their operation. Thus, they might face some issues to repay their long-term borrowings. However, Nike’s industry has the lowest figure again. Secondly, the industry of JNJ and AAPL has the exact figure to be ranked as the 2nd highest leveraged industry after FedEx Industry. Conversely, the case is completely different when we compare between the sectors. In fact, the Service sector of “Nike” is the most leveraged one as it exceeds 100% dependency on debt financing followed by FedEx and J&J as they ranked the 2nd and the 3rd leveraged sectors among the 4 stocks. On the other hand, Apple has the lowest sector ratio (only 0.34) compared to the other sectors. This results in increasing its attractiveness to the investors because of being less risky (exposing to few liabiliries). Moreover, S&P 500 exposes to high level of long-term debt commitment (almost near 80% dependency on debt). Page 27 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 11- Total Debt to Equity Ratio (QRM) The Firm’s The Firm’s S&P 500 Stock industry Ratio Sector Ratio Index Ratio 0.21 0.46 0.37 0.22 0.38 0.61 0.31 0.31 0.72 0.12 0.21 1.48 The firm’s Ratio Apple Inc. (AAPL) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) FedEx Corporation (FDX) Nike Corporation (NKE) 0.86 This ratio is another kind of measuring the firm’s ability to meet its long term borrowings in Future which would ease the selection process by expecting the risk associated with each firm based on its debt commitment level. Nike has the lowest exposure to debt commitments as its ratio is very low. Alternatively, Nike depends more on equity financing rather than debt financing to facilitate their business operation or expansion. Positively, this will reduce the probability of vulnerability to business downturns and this is the case preferable for risk-averse investors. Despite of the fact that Nike has the highest ratio, it is not considered as highly leveraged because their dependency on debt does not reach 50%. In fact, J&J and Apple have approximately the same level of debt commitment as suggested by their close figures to each other. The industry of Apple is the most leveraged one as it has a 50% debt financing, followed by J&J and then FedeX while Nike is the least leveraged industry and it is less expected to face debt repayment issues. By comparing between sectors, the previous table shows that the growth of Nike’s sector is financed aggressively with debt and borrowings as it exceeds 100% of debt financing. It is followed by FedEx, J&J and lastly Apple’s Sector which has lower exposure level to debt which makes it less risky compared to the other sector. Besides, S&P depends highly on debt financing (almost 90%) resulting in more future issues related to paying the loans back. Page 28 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 12- Interest Coverage(QRM) The Firm’s The Firm’s S&P 500 Stock industry Ratio Sector Ratio Index Ratio 140.28 109.4 53.84 54.51 124.43 25.4 34.08 26.61 13.06 153.89 78.34 10.93 The firm’s Ratio Apple Inc. (AAPL) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) FedEx Corporation (FDX) Nike Corporation (NKE) 13.07 This ratio measures the number of times that the firm is able to cover interest expenses. Therefore, the higher the figure is, the more attractive is the firm to invest in. Generally, the majority of the stocks have high numbers which is interpreted positively as they generate sufficient amount of cash flow to be paid for interest expenses. Nike and Apple have the first and the second highest figure of interest coverage is highly preferred by potential investor to be more confident about the firm’s financial future position in term of fulfilling its interest expenses. Thus it supports the selection of Apple Inc. and Nike stocks as part of the portfolio. Relatively, FedEx has the lowest figure compared to others which can be justified by having difficulties in generating more cash flow and thus in paying back their interest expenses. Alternative Justification for FedEx’s low figure might be linked to their higher debt commitment than others as mentioned above which result in affecting this ratio negatively. Generally, all industries have high figures except for FedEx industry which is facing difficulties to pay their interest expenses. Most of the sectors along with the S&P 500 suffer from the same problem as the have low figures except for Apple’s sector which is fairly able to cover its interest expenses. Page 29 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 13- EBITDA 5Yr. Average EBITD Apple Inc. (AAPL) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) FedEx Corporation (FDX) Nike Inc. (NKE) 2009 N/A 19.4 billion N/A N/A 2010 19.3 billion 19.76billion 3.97 billion 2.7 billion 2011 36.31 billion 19.5 billion 4.44 billion 3.09 billion 2012 57.91 billion 19.67 billion 5.43 billion 3.49 billion 2013 55.08 billion 23.61 billion 5.6 billion 3.61 billion 2014 60.03 billion N/A 6.03 billion 4.2 billion 31.37 billion 30.71 billion 20.82 billion 15.08 billion EBITD 5 yr. Average (Source: Daily Finance S&P 500 29.78 Throughout the period, we can see that all firms have positive numbers which is interpreted positively as they are able to generate income out of their operations. Particularly, Apple has the highest figures followed by JNJ, FedEx and lastly Nike which has the lowest figures of EBITD compared to other firms. On average, Apple and JNJ have very close figures of EBITD to each other. This indicates their high levels of financial strength to generate income out of their business operation during the period (2010-2013) as they exceed the average EBITD generated by S&P 500 index. However, FedEx and Nike have lower abilities to generate income during the same period from their operational activities. Generally, we can figure that no one of the companies face struggles to generate income (profit) as they have constant growth of EBITD every year which goes in line with the inventors’ desire and preferences to maximize their wealth. Page 30 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 14- ROA 5yr. Average (Source: GuruFocus) Apple Inc. (AAPL) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) FedEx Corporation (FDX) Nike Inc. (NKE) 2009 19.68 13.66 0.39 11.57 2010 22.84 13.5 4.82 13.7 2011 27.06 8.93 5.55 14.50 2012 28.53 9.24 7.09 14.59 2013 19.34 10.89 4.92 14.98 2014 18.01 N/A 6.29 14.90 19.60 10.7 5.94 14.06 The industry 19.21 8.01 6.90/5.94% 13.84 The sector 13.74 7.86 1.60/5.94% 13.07 ROA (%) ROA 5 yr. Average Source: Daily finance The firm S&P 500 9.28 Since profitability is one of the main investors’ objectives, the ROA and ROE figures would be useful to measure the firm’s ability to generate profit over the specified period. Thus, these are useful measurement to help us in stock selection process by assessing the effectiveness of the firm’s management strategies. Looking at the previous figures of ROA indicate that all firms have a progressive growth with relatively low numbers recorded in 2009 in response to the effect of the economic crises. To illustrate, FedEx has the lowest ROA as it has the highest sensitivity to market fluctuations as explained earlier. Averagely, it is expected that Apple and Nike apply good management techniques to control its operational expenses as they have the two highest average of ROA during the last 5 years (19.60% and 13.84% respectively). Besides, their industry and sectors have the highest figures compared to others, exceeding even the S&P figure. These high figures suggest that their management strategies are successful in utilizing their available resources of assets to generate lots of profits. This would support Page 31 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment the decision of including Apple and Nike stocks within the portfolio which leads to achieve the objectives of our investment philosophy (maximizing personal wealth). On the other hand, FedEx and J&J have the first and the second lowest figures respectively as well as their industries and sectors, compared to others. To analyze their low figure, they might due to their management strategies that are not that much efficient or it is possible that they might face struggles in optimizing their asset to generate profit. Page 32 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 15- ROE 5yr. Average (Source: GuruFocus) Apple Inc. (AAPL) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) FedEx Corporation (FDX) Nike Inc. (NKE) 2009 30.54 26.35 0.70 18.00 2010 35.28 24.88 8.63 20.68 2011 41.67 17.02 10.00 21.77 2012 42.84 17.81 13.57 21.98 2013 30.64 19.92 9.72 23.04 2014 33.61 N/A 12.84 24.59 32.77 19.93 13.51/11.38 21.92 The industry 32.56 16.98 23.00/11.38 22.45 The sector 24.22 17.49 18.25/11.38 21.74 ROE (%) ROE 5 yr. Average (Source: Daily Finance) The firm S&P 500 20.52% Similarly to ROA, Apple has the highest figure of ROE average during the last five years compared to the rest of stocks. Particularly, Apple is highly able to make profits out of the available equity capital resources that are invested in the firm and its ability is estimated at average rate of 32.77%. Apple’s industry and sector have again the highest Return on Equity figures compared to others. By comparing the Annual ROE figures of Apple, we can highlight its highest ability which was recorded in 2011 and 2012 at 41.67% and 42.84% respectively. Accordingly, Apple can be viewed as the greatest opportunity to invest in. Nike is ranked 2nd in term of its ability to generate return on available equity resources. On average, it has an annual ROE of approximately 22% during the period of 5 years. In fact, Nike’s return on equity has grown progressively from 18% in 2009 to 24.6% in 2014 (as the end of May of each year).. By evaluating the annual ROE figures for each firm, we can conclude that Nike is the only company that has a constant growth of ROE without up and downs fluctuations as happened to the other firms. This Page 33 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment means that Nike follows effective management techniques to get the maximum benefits from the current equity invested in the firm by shareholders JNJ sets in the middle with a quite close figure to Nike as the average ROE on yearly basis is 20%, indicating a quite high ability to convert shareholders’ investments into profit. Lastly, FedEx has the lowest average of yearly ROE during the same period which is estimated at 13.51%, giving a sign of its inefficient management and weakness in the area of profit generation from equity. The highest return on equity was recorded by FedEx in 2012 at a rate of 13% only while the lowest was in 2009 and 2010 due to its respond to the economic crises that hit the market in 2008 . Generally, all companies have positive and relatively high ROE average (considering the lowest one is 13.51% for FedEx which is still positive). This means that they are careful while developing their equity optimization tactics in order to be efficient in benefiting from equity investment to be turned into net income they. Page 34 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 16- Asset Turnover (TTM) (Source: Daily Finance) The Firm’s The Firm’s S&P 500 Stock industry Ratio Sector Ratio Index Ratio 0.84 0.80 0.63 0.56 0.47 0.87 1.40 1.73 0.89 1.59 1.56 0.93 The firm’s Ratio Apple Inc. (AAPL) Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) FedEx Corporation (FDX) Nike Corporation (NKE) 0.37 A supplementary factor that affects the selection criteria is the firm’s efficiency and effectiveness in term of optimization of their economic resources and employing its assets and to produce sales and obtained current assets as represented through the Asset Turnover. Therefore, as the ratio goes higher, the firm’s stock becomes more valuable in the investors’ eyes because of its efficient ability to generate sales out of its available assets and resources which means that it works more closely to capacity. When we compare between the 4 companies, it is obvious that Nike and Fedex are the most efficient firms in optimizing their resources to generate profit from its sales as they have higher ratio than the other (exceeding 1). This is also applied for their industries as they have the highest efficiency level (highest turnover). They are followed by Apple, which has almost the same figure for its industry that is very close to the benchmark of 1 reflecting its quite high efficiency of profit generation and not standing behind the overall efficient performance of the industry. Lastly, JNJ is the least efficient company, which operates in the least efficient industry as the have the least ability to convert its hold assets into profit. In order to calculate the asset turnover of S&P500 index, the average turnover of all its components is taken, resulting in the lowest ratio of asset turnover compared to other (estimated at 0.37). Generally, all sectors have almost close figures to each other (range between 0.8 and 0.9), representing a quite high efficiency in profit generation except for Apple which has a lower efficiency rate Page 35 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 6.3 Closing Share Prices as of 6th November 201 Company Share Price ($) Apple (AAPL) 108.70 Johnson & Johnson (J&J) 109.01 FedEx (FDX) 171.70 Nike (NKE) 94.06 Colorado Bond Shares Tax-Exempt (HICOX) 9.10 Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARER) 82.47 When we compare between the close prices of the 4 firms’ stocks, we can figure that J&J has the highest share price at the end of the period while Nike has the lowest figure. However, this does not mean that J&J has achieved the highest return and the same for Nike as will be analyzed later on. Page 36 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 6.4 Broker Recommendation (Sources: Yahoo Finance and NASDAQ) 1- Apple Inc. (APPL) Recommendation Apple Inc. (APPL) The firm Recommendation 1.9 The industry 1.78 The sector N/A S&P 500 Strongly Buy (1= strong buy, 5=sell) According to Apple’s Recommendation Trend as published in Yahoo Finance, the Recommendation Mean is 1.9 for Apple which is very close to the recommendation of “Strong Buy” according to the scale shown below. Since the brokers recommend for buying Apple stock and not selling it, it is expected that Apple’s share prices will increase in future since its buying rate would exceed the selling. Therefore, the broker recommendation supports the selection of Apple Stock as a long position since no analyst advised to sell it during the last 4 months. On the contrary, most of analysts’ opinions (estimated at 27 analysts) go for strongly buy Apple stock. 2- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Recommendation Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Recommendation The firm 2.3 The industry 1.71 The sector N/A S&P 500 Strongly Buy (1=strong Buy, 5= Sell) According to J&J, the average recommendation is 2.32 which is higher than the mean for the industry estimated at 1.71. However, both numbers have a buying average recommendation because both means are fairly close to 1 as shown below. This indicates a strong brightness regarding the future share of J&J. Page 37 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Additional reason for investing in J&J as a short position are supported by this figure as it has the highest recommendation mean compared to others. Besides, there is very small number brokers who advice to sell J&J which is totally not existed in the case of other stocks. 3- FedEx (FDX) Recommendation FedEx (FDX) Recommendation The firm 2.1 The industry 1.87 The sector N/A S&P 500 Strongly Buy (1= strong buy, 5=sell) In spite of the fact that the average recommendation of the industry is lower than the mean of the firm itself, both averages are categorized under the “Buy” position. Particularly, FedEx stock has an average recommendation of “2.1” which leans more towards buying the stock as shown in the scale below. Therefore, it seems that most of the brokers are agreeing on the same opinion between advising potential investor to buy the stock and the current shareholders to hold it. As a total of 23 brokers, 16 of the have recommended to hold the stock, while "9" and "3 recommendations" to strongly buy and to buy the share respectively; while there were no recommendations given to sell the stock. Supportively, Cowen Research Firm has recommended an upgrade action, as the stock will outperform the market. Optimistically, FedEx share will have a greater value in future. 4- Nike (NKE) Recommendation Nike Inc. (NKE) Recommendation The firm 2.0 The industry 1.8 (1= strong buy, 5=sell) Page 38 of 111 The sector N/A S&P 500 Strongly Buy Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment The average recommendations of Nike and its industry are very close to each other, as they are 2.0 and 1.8 respectively. Therefore, both averages recommend to strongly buying Nike’s stock and not selling it. This was supported by Jenney Research firm how recommend an upgrade action for Nike to be moved significantly from the neutral to the buy position. Furthermore, a total of 21 brokers have recommended the potential investor to buy Nike Stock, 6 brokers advised current shareholder to hold it while no one recommend selling it. When investors respond to this recommendation positively, Nike’s share prices are expected to increase in future because the buy rating will exceed the rate of selling. Finally, the average recommendations for S&P 500 is strongly buy, indicating a well performance of the market as the total points during period was exceeding 2000. (investing.com, 2014). Page 39 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 6. 5 Earnings Forecasts (Nasdaq) (Considering the years end as of Sep of each fiscal year) 1- Apple Inc. (AAPL) Earning Forecast Apple Generally, Apple’s Earning is expected to grow rapidly during the coming period and it is estimated to be 17.46% higher than the previous year with an estimated growth of 2.59% particularly for the next quarter. In addition, it is stated by analysts that Earning of Apple is projected to grow approximately at 11.59% in the next years. Considering the projection of its earning during the following 5 years, the average annual rate of Apple’s earning growth will be at 12.81% for every year. 2- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Earning Forecast Page 40 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment For the following 5 years, analysts, who track the performance of J&J, expect that the firm will have an annual earnings growth rate of approximately 6.04% on average. Particularly, J&J’s forecasted earnings for this year are estimated to grow at 8.05%, compared to this year. After 2 years from now, it is expected that J&J’s earnings growth rate will be 4%. 3- FedEx Corporation Earning Forecast As shown in the graph above, it is expected that the earning of FedEx will grow at 32.48% in this year. In the following, NASDAQ’s analysts have an expectation that FedEx’s Earning will grow at approximately 21.51%. In term of predicting the earnings growth of FedEx during the coming 5 years, the analysts estimate that the average annual growth rate will be 14.22% for every year. Page 41 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 4- Nike Inc. (NKE). Earning Forecast The previous graph shows the growth rates of Nike’s forecast earnings. For the next year, the Earnings growth of Nike is estimated at 20.91%, compared to this year figure. After 2 years, the analysts, who monitor FedEx earnings, predict a lower growth of earnings at 15.19%, compared to the next estimated growth. Considering the next 5 years, it is expected that Nike will have an average annual earnings growth rate of approximately 13.94%. When we compare between the 4 stocks, FedEx has the highest earnings growth rates for the coming periods while J&J has the lowest figures. . Page 42 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 6.6 Description and Performance of Bond: Colorado Bond Shares A TaxExempt (HICOX) The Bond objectives: The main objective of the Colorado Bond Shares A-Tax-Exempt is to maximize profit which is exempt from taxes by both of the federal and Colorado income taxes, as well as preserving capital. (Finance.yahoo.com, 2014) General information: These are general information about the Colorado Bond Shares A-Tax-Exempt (Ticker: HICOX) Category: Muni Single State Interim Fund Family: Freedom Funds Net Assets: 900.40M Morningstar Rating: Fund Inception Date: Jun 4, 1987 Asset manager: Fred Kelly, Jr Advisor Company: Freedom Funds Management Corporation The Fund Strategy: In term of HICOX’s Fund strategies, the bond follows the following 3 strategies based on the market condition (Yahoo Finance.com, 2014): In normal market conditions: investing 100% of the total net asset value. In abnormal market conditions: investing 80% of the total net asset value in tax-exempt bonds and other tax-exempt securities Up to 20% might be invested in securities that may subject the investment to federal alternative minimum tax. The Risk Generally, HICOX has a risk rate of 1 according to the Morningstar rating scale indicating a very low risk exposure. Besides, the bond’s total risk is estimated at a standard deviation of 0.78 while its Page 43 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment systematic risk and sensitivity to market changes is estimated at a beta of 0.26. In regard with the risks associated with the HICOX, it can be summarized as the following: This investment fund is not protected by any government agency. There is probability of losing the investor's money in this fund due to the effects of market conditions and interest rate fluctuations on the bond values. There is no limitation on the percentage invested of the asset in Tax-Exempt Obligations. 100% of this fund's asset will be invested in not rated Tax-Exempt Obligations. Investing in Tax-Exempt Obligations that are lower-rated quality as determined by the Investment advice is an option for the fund managers The limitation of the Tax-Exempt Obligations market in selling of buying. Tax-Exempt Obligations may be modified or eliminated through legislative action. Note that any of the previous risks could lead to affecting the Fund’s net asset value, yield or the total return (Quote.morningstar.com, 2014). In general, it is expected that the Bond will have a relatively low return because if the low risk were taken. To illustrate, the 1-year bond of has a mean annual return of 0.46 while the 3-Year maturity has an annual return of 0.36% on average. This indicates that the shortmaturity of HICOX bond has a higher return than the longer maturity on average. The following table illustrates some of the key statistics for the 1-year HICOX Bond: Statistic HICOX Alpha 3.68 Beta 0.26 Mean Annual Return 0.48 R-squared 70.74 Standard Deviation 0.78 Sharpe ratio 7.31 Page 44 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 6.7 Description and Performance of REIT: Alexandrian Real Estate Equities (AREE) Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. was chosen as the real estate investment trust (REIT). The company operates in the financial sector and employs 220 employees in its Pasadena office. To illustrate, it operates from Pasadena California in the United States. Since they are part of the financial sector, there operations vary from property solutions to medical and biodefence research, it currently employs 220 employees. Based on the research and the figures provided about the fund, it was founded that Alexandria Real Estate Equities has high confidence from investors, for the fact that it had a price earning equivalent to 46. With regards the companies value, it is valued to be greater than 8$ billion. In terms of market capitalization Alexandria Real Estate Equities fund is $6 billion, and said to be the largest trust in the country, for the fact that it is expected to continue increasing in the near future. The company was able to generate a profit margin of 22%, indicating their efficient ability to turn their products into profits very quickly. However in terms of turning invested capital into profits, is quite low for they had a 2% on return on assets ratio, and 4% return on equity. The firm was able to have a Beta of 0.81. Broker analysis of this fund was a 2.4, which is most probably a strong buy. Moreover since it was mentioned in the news that they have successfully leased the entire project, this will stimulate the market and forecasts growth in the coming time. Based on Yahoo Finanace! It was stated that on Sept 26th 2014 Alexandria Real Estate Equities, distributed dividends of 0.72. Which indicates the strong, secure and stable the company has been and will be. Hence investing in this company will add to our portfolio, and will aid in increasing the expected portfolio revenue. Page 45 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 6.8 Fund Allocation First of all, $ 10,000 was allocated the bond and $20,000 was allocated for the REIT each. Hence having a total of $30,000 for both. Meaning that each of the Bond amounts to 10% and the REIT amounts to 20% of the total portfolio. The remaining $80,000 was allocated among the remaining stock on the following matter: $10,000 was allocated for the short position stock which is Johnson and Johnson to buy 92 shares as of 21st of September, 2014. Therefore, J&J stocks will represent 10% of the total portfolio. $24,939.39 was allocated for Nike to buy 309 outstanding shares as of 21st of September,2014. Thus, Nike will have a 25% portion of the total portfolio. $19,908.82 was allocated for Apple to buy 197 outstanding shares as of 21st of September, 2014 which is equivalent to 20% of the portfolio. $14,996.70 was allocated for FedEx for buying 95 outstanding shares as of 21st of September, 2014. Therefore, FedEx stocks represent 15% of the total portfolio. Based on the research result and the report detailing the past-years performance of every company, it was decided to allocate the least portion for J&J compared to other stocks because of its fluctuated performance that the risk-averse investor dislikes especially that is not guaranteed to be transferred into higher return. However, Apple and Nike have the highest portion because of its sustainable growth that is preferable for our investor. Page 46 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 6. Evaluation of the Portfolio Performance 7.1 HPR Calculation The following table summarizes the closing prices changes for the 6 securities during the holding period The Securities Closing share Price as of 21st September 2014 ($) Closing share Price as of 6th November 2014 ($) Apple (AAPL) 101.06 108.70 + 7.64 + 7.55% 0.47 Johnson & Johnson (J&J) 107.88 109.01 + 1.13 + 1.04% - FedEx (FDX) 157.86 171.70 + 13.84 + 8.76% - Nike (NKE) 80.71 94.06 + 13.35 + 16.54% - 9.10 9.10 0 No Change 0.065 75.18 82.47 +7.29 + 9.69% 0.72 Colorado Bond Shares TaxExempt (HICOX) Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARER) Percentage of Change Prices Change in Prices amount ($) (%) Dividend paid during the Period($) Based on the above table, the holding Period Return for the securities (Expected Return) is calculated through the following formula HPR = = End of Period Value Obening of Period Value −1 End of Period Value−Obening of Period Value+Dividend Payment Obening of Period Value Page 47 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment The Securities Formula Substitution HPR / Expected Return E(R) Apple (AAPL) 108.70 − 101.06 + 0.47 101.06 8.02% Johnson & Johnson (J&J) 109.01 −1 107.88 1.05% FedEx (FDX) 171.70 −1 157.86 8.77% Nike (NKE) 94.06 −1 80.71 16.54% Colorado Bond Shares Tax-Exempt (HICOX) 9.10 − 9.10 + 0.065 9.10 0.72% Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARER) 82.47 − 75.18 + 0.72 75.18 10.65% Return on S&P 500 (R m) 1.51% Return on 3-Months Treasury Bills ( Risk Free Rate (R f) ) 0.02% The Expected Return (holding Period Return) of the 6 portfolio securities differs significantly from one security to another. However, all of them have achieved a positive return at the end of the period which is interpreted positively as overall. Among the 6 securities, Nike has the highest return which is estimated at 16.54%. This is due to the significant increase in Nike’s stock price by approximately 16.4% amounting to $13.35 during the holding period of approximately 10 weeks (from 21st September to 6th November 2014). Nike has presented an outstanding performance during the specified period by outperforming the market (S&P 500) which is estimated at only 1.5% and the other portfolio securities as well. Nike is followed by the Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARER) which has a holding period return of around 10.65% as the price of the REIT increased by $7.29 which is equivalent to 9.69% positive change in the price. Besides, a total of $0.72 was paid as dividend at once during the holding period. The Page 48 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment significant increase in the REIT price reflects its excellent performance during that period, leading its return rate to exceed the market return (S&P 500). The REIT was followed by FedEx and Apple subsequently as the third and the fourth highest return estimated at 8.77% on FedEx stock and 8.07% on Apple Stock. Accordingly, it seems that both stocks have a very close return to each other during the holding period. However, FedEx has a greater rate of return because the price of FedEx has increased by 8.76% which amounts to $13.84 while the price of Apple has increased by 7.55% which amounts to $7.64. In fact, it seems that the increase in FedEx’s stock price which is $13.84 is almost doubled of the increase in the Apple’s stock price which is $7.64, however, the increase in Apple’s stock price worth more than the increase in FedEx stock price as they achieved very similar return at the end of the holding period. In the case of Apple, a total of $0.47 was paid as dividend while no dividend payment in FedEx case. Generally, Apple and FedEx have a quite good performance during the holding period. On the Contrary, the bond and J&J stock have the poorest performance during the holding period among the portfolio securities as they have a lower return than the market estimated at 1.05% for J&J and 0.78% for the Bond meaning that they have underperformed the market. This is due to the little increase in J&J’s stock price by only 1.04% which amounts to $1.13. Despite of the lack of changes in the price of the bond, the small return on the bond was generated from the dividend amount which was paid on two batches. To illustrate, the first bond’s dividend payment was $0.033 while the second dividend payment was $0.032 making a total of $0.065. In other words, if no dividends were paid during the holding period, the return on the bond would have been equal to zero as the bond price did not witness any negative or positive moment during the period. As overall, the return on the portfolio securities did not show a brilliant performance except for Nike. By tracking the changes in stock prices in the days following the end of the holding period immediately, we can observe an extra increase in prices. Therefore, if the holding period were extended for a longer horizon, a higher rate of holding period return on the stocks selected would have been generated. Furthermore, the selection of Apple, the REIT and the bond were excellent choices due to the dividends paid by all of them during the holding period which has resulted in increasing the return on each of them and subsequently the portfolio return. Page 49 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 7.2 Market Rate & Risk Free Rate According to (YCharts), the average risk free rate is 0.02% which is the 3-months Treasury Bills Rate during the holding period. In addition, the market rate is estimated at average of 1.51% during the holding period from September 21st to November 6th. This figure indicates the return on the S&P500 stock index during the same period. Basically, the S&P 500 index has increased significantly by more than 19 points to reach 2,057 points at the end. Added to the increased points, the brokers have recommended to strongly buy the S&P 500 stocks index indicating that investing in its component might be considered as appropriate choice for the portfolio. 7.3 Portfolio Return To Calculate the Return on the Portfolio the Following Formula is used: Return on Portfolio (Expected Return of the Portfolio)= W Apple E(R Apple) + W J&J E (RJ&J) + W FedEx E(R FedEx) + W Nike E(R Nike) + W bond E (R bond) + WREIT E(RREIT) The following table clarifies the components of the portfolio return: The Securities Expected Return for each security Fund allocation for each security ($) Weight for each Security Weight * HPR Apple (AAPL) 8.02% 19,908.82 20% 0.01597 Johnson & Johnson (J&J) 1.05% 10,000 10% 0.00105 FedEx (FDX) 8.77% 14,996.70 15% 0.01315 Nike (NKE) 16.54% 24,939.39 25% 0.041250 Colorado Bond Shares Tax-Exempt (HICOX) 0.72% 10,000 10% 0.00072 Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARER) 10.65% 20,000 20% 0.02130 Total Portfolio Return (%) 9.34% Total Return amount ($) $ 9340 Page 50 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment The portfolio return depends on the individual contribution of the return of each stock to the total return of all the investment securities. Based on the fact that stocks with high return including Nike, the REIT, FedEx and Apple representing almost 80% from the overall portfolio weight, the return on the portfolio was reasonably acceptable at a rate of 9.34% which amounts to an extra of $9340 . The portfolio return was the outcome of the increase in the price of highest weighted stocks in the portfolio added to the dividend payments of some of them as explained earlier. Generally, the portfolio return demonstrates an upturn in the performance of the majority of the stocks which means that we need to strength our position in the market by taking advantage of the top performed stocks over the long-term investment horizon. 7.4 Portfolio Beta The following table identifies the beta for each security and the overall beta for the portfolio: The Securities Beta of the Security 4 (1) Weight for each Security (2) Weight * Beta (1*2) Apple (AAPL) 0.055712 20% 0.011091527 Johnson & Johnson (J&J) 0.072106 10% 0.007210612 FedEx (FDX) 0.086996 15% 0.013046528 Nike (NKE) 0.026145 25% 0.006520322 Colorado Bond Shares Tax-Exempt (HICOX) -0.00017 10% -1.74498E-05 Alexandria Real Estate Equities (ARER) 0.00339 20% 0.000677497 Total Portfolio Beta 0.038529 The Colorado Bond Shares Tax-Exempt (HICOX) is the only security that has a negative beta (in minus) which is estimated at-0.00017. This means that the bond will respond to every change in the market of 1 by 0.00017 in the opposite direction of the market. However, the Alexandria Real Estate Equity (REIT) 4 Calculated through Excel Sheet submitted. Page 51 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment will be much more responsive to the market change by only 0.00339. The REIT’s response goes in line with the market change as it has positive betas. By looking again at the stocks’ beta according to each stock’s contribution to the overall portfolio, it can be concluded that all the stocks are responsive in the same direction to the market change as all of them have positive betas. However, each one of them will respond by different amount. In particular, Nike and Apple is the least reactive to the market volatility as their individual betas are 0.026 and 0.056 respectively. These figures mean that Apple’s stocks will respond collectively to the market changes by 0.01 while Nike’s total stocks will have a lower rate of response estimated at 0.0065. On the other hand, FedEx and J&J are more affected by market fluctuations and changes. To illustrate, for every market change of 1, J&J will respond positively by 7.2% while FedEx will follow the changes in the market by 2.6% As overall, the portfolio beta is 0.4 which is calculated based on the individual contribution of the beat of each individual security to the overall portfolio beta according to the following formula: W Apple βApple + W J&J βJ&J + W FedEx β FedEx+ W Nike βNike + W bond βbond + WREIT βREIT Having a beta of 0.4 indicates that the portfolio’s response goes in line with the market changes by almost 4%. Therefore, the portfolio almost reflects almost half of the e market conditions as the portfolio is affected by market circumstances regardless whether they have positive or negative impacts on the portfolio. In regard with the response amount, the portfolio will respond about half to the variations occur in the market. However, this can be positively viewed in the case of large market meaning that the stocks will respond to the positive change in the market as well as getting affected by market turmoil. Besides, it is very realistic figure as people tend to increase spending on luxury goods when the market operates normally which is the opposite in the case of unstable market as people tend to save money. Controversially, it can be criticized that if the portfolio reflects approximately half of the market, what the advantage would be behind diversifying this portfolio instead of investing in the market directly. As mentioned in the previous part, it can be observed that the portfolio return has outperformed the market significantly which means that the investor has been compensated for the extra risk he had taken. Page 52 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 7.5 Jenson’s Alpha Analysis (α)5 Based on the given information below, the Jenson’s Alpha of the portfolio is calculated through the following formula: α p = R p – (R f + βp (R m – R f)) Portfolio Return ( Rp) 0.0936 Risk Free Rate (Rf) 0.02 Portfolio Beta (βp) 0.39 Market Return (Rm) 0.0151 (R p) (R f) (R m – R f) βp (R m – R f) αp (1) (2) (3) (4) (1)-(2+4) 0.936 0.02 -0.0049 -0.004606 0.0736 Using Jenson’s Alpha model, which is a performance measure adjusted by risk, to analyse the performance of the stock is helpful in defining whether the portfolio earns the appropriate rate of return, compared to its risk level or not. Basically, having a positive figure of Jenson’s Alpha for the portfolio, which is estimated at 0.07, means that the portfolio has beaten the market by earning excess returns on its components. Therefore, it would express the successfulness of the investment strategy as the right stocks were selected. Therefore, it can be concluded that the investor has been compensated for the risk he was taking by earning an excess return on his portfolio securities. Separately, 4 out of 6 securities have a quite high return value, which might be interpreted by the excess return earned on each stock as their actual return have exceeded their expected return. By comparing between the previous expectation of the stocks’ return and the actual return rates, some of the stocks are considered to be reasonable such as Apple and FedEx, while other underperformers as of J&J and the Bond while some are outperformers as of Nike and the REIT. To illustrate, Nike, the REIT, FedEx and Apple have positive figures of Jensen’s alpha, which are estimated at approximately 0.146, 0.09, 0.07 and 0.06 respectively (from the highest to the lowest). 5 The Jenson’s Alpha Analysis for each stock is attached in an Excel Sheet. Page 53 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment These figures indicate that the actual returns on these 4 securities have exceeded their expected returns. On the other hand, J&J and the bond has negative Jenson’s Alpha values (-0.009 and -0.012 respectively) indicating that their actual rates of return are less than their expected returns. 7.6 Performance of the Portfolio Firms during the Holding Period 1- Apple Inc. (AAPL) (Apple Inc. hot news, 2014) The contribution of Apple’s good financial performance to the overall portfolio is highly observable as discussed previously. In summary, the extra risk was taken by holding Apple stock for a period of approximately 10 weeks was accompanied by a compensated return. Therefore, receiving an excess return on Apple Stocks because of the increase in stock prices and the dividend paid has resulted in increasing the profit of the investor and his total portfolio return. The following events are evidenced of the great performance of Apple during the holding period. In reality, the increase in the price and the dividend payment were due to the sales generated after the release of iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 plus model in the market. To illustrate, Apple has generated a sales from selling more than 10 million items of both products within the first weekend that follows the release of the two products by 3 days. This was above the expectation as the products were only distributed to some countries at the beginning. Progressively, the products reached an additional 20 countries on 26th of September and reached China on 16th of October resulting in higher sales generation. This has lead Apple to reach a revenue of $42.1 billion for its fourth accounting quarter and a net income of $8.1 billion, and a Diluted EPS of $1.45 for that quarter as published in their Quarterly financial report. By Comparing those figure to the previous year figures for the same quarter, a gross margin of 38% was recorded. On 16th of October, Apple has updated its product category of Mac mini with more advanced technological features at a lower starting price than the old version in order to increase Apple’s products affordability. For the same purpose, Apple has cancelled the charge imposed on the Upgrade of the OS X-Yosemite operating system for MAC to be free for Mac users. Furthermore, Apple has introduced the 27-inch iMac with Retina 5K display that has the highest rate of display resolution estimated at 14.7 million pixels causing texts to appear sharper than before and videos to be viewed more realistic. One further point is Apple’s Announcement of being able to make transactional payments through iPhone 6 touch finger. Additionally, Apple has introduced its iPad mini 3 which offers Touch ID and iPad Air 2 which is the tinniest and most influential iPad in term of its resolution and better cameras. Based on Page 54 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment that, we can figure the high level improvements of Apple’s operational performance that led to increase its stock prices and earnings. 2- Johnson and Johnson (J&J) J&J was the most underperformer stock in the portfolio. Generally, J&J have a poor performance during the holding period as the stock price has fluctuated rates of changes resulting in 1.3% increase only at the end of the holding period. This can be justified through the negative impacts of the underperforming Ortho-Clinical Diagnostics that J&J has ditched by unloading them to the Carlyle Group. However, this was not the only weakness of J&J as all diabetes devices were facing a decline in its sales during the same period. To illustrate, the sales of diagnostics has declined by 8.9% while the sales of diabetes care has fallen by 11.2%. Therefore, J&J has very poor performance in its main segment of diagnostics which was dominated geographically in the US as their diabetes care sales has plummeted by 32.3% causing the company’s worldwide sales to fall by 14.7%. Therefore, it is concluded that J&J was highly affected by the poor performance of its diabetes care in the United State (Hartford, 2014). However, the company survived through the sales generated from its consumer goods division. To illustrate, the drop in the US sales was offset by the consumer goods sales increases of 1.98%. Besides, the international sales have helped to boost the picture as they increased by 14.4% by benefiting from currency translation. Therefore, the internal diversification among the firm itself has helped it to recover the loss recorded in one segment (Pitman, 2014). 3- FedEx Corporation (FDX) Generally, FedEx has a quite good performance during the holding period as the Diluted EPS increased to 2.47$ with a total revenue of $11.8 billion and a net income of 730 million. This was due to the increase in the Capital Expenditure which was compensates into a quite high return at the end of the period. One of the most influential factors for FedEx stable Performance was the re-election of the board of Directors as 12 directors was re-elected for the next-one year term. Accordingly, the annual dividend yield was only 0.5% as there was no dividend payment announced by the new broad directors during the holding period. FedEx figure’s was below the figure recorded for its competitor (United Parcel Service at 2.75%) (Morningstar, 2014). The most successful division of FedEx Corporation was FedEx Express as it showed a remarkable improvement. Mainly, FedEx Express has grown by 0.9% during the holding period and it is expected to Page 55 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment continue growing in the upcoming period to reach a revenue growth rate of 4.5% at this particular division (Market Watch, 2014). Besides, launching the program of buying back a total of 32 million shares has contributed positively to the increase in the stock price as the company started it programme by the end of October. Therefore, the firm’s stock prices have increased more after the end of the holding period to reach $110 in November 13th as a result of the shares repurchase programme (Morningstore, 2014). 4- Nike Inc. (NKE) In general, Nike was the top performer stock within the portfolio securities as it has achieved the highest contribution to the overall portfolio return. The significant increase in Nike’s stock price was due to the strong performance of Nike in North America and Europe, leading to maintain a sustainable long-term growth as targeted by Nike. To illustrate, the sluggish performance of Nike’s footwear in China was estimated at 2% growth only. However, this was offset by Nike’s surprising performance in Europe and North America through retail stores and online sales of Apparel and sports equipment. Therefore, Nikes has benefited from its internal diversification of different lines of products distributed through different channels (Forbes, 2014). Moreover, Nike has a constant growth earnings and dividend payment record. To illustrate, the value delivered to shareholders has been increasing over the past 13 years. In particular, a dividend of $0.72 was paid at once during the holding period. Totally, Nike’s Quarterly dividend has increased by 17% indicating a high financial strength and confidence level of the company’s ability to generate cash flow in in future (Nike Inc., 2014). Page 56 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 7. Suggestions for Improvement in the Investment Strategy Due to the lack of control on several factors in the market including interest rates, inflation and the currency exchange rates fluctuation, it would be a good idea to focus on controllable factors. Basically, diversification is one of the controllable factors. Therefore, we have insured to produce a welldiversified portfolio, which will help us in eliminating any un-systematic risk or what is identified as the “diversifiable risk”. Once you are able to eliminate those types of risk to a certain extent, you will be able to overcome or deal probably with systematic risk. This was successfully achieved through selecting 6 different securities relates to different sectors and industries. In other terms, our investment strategy focused on several elements that will enables us to accommodate any changes in the market in terms of interest rates, currencies, inflation and the return of the investments. We were assigned with a short investment period of less than 2 month, leading to difficulties in predicting prices or changes. Hence we believe if we had a longer investment period we would have been able to study the market better, and experience more of that market changes. We also did not increase the number of stocks in our portfolio, and limited ourselves to a total of six. The reason for that was due to the risk tolerance level of risk-averse investors, which cannot afford losing their initial investment amount. To illustrate, only 15% of the total fund was allocated for FedEx to buy 95 shares due to its level of risk. However, they worth more than the 197 shares of Apples which represents 20% of the portfolio since FedEx stocks produced higher return than Apple which was above expectation. Therefore, it would be better to sell 30 shares from Apple to buy an extra 20 shares from FedEx. Moreover, for the future we believe if we change our analytical approach from bottom up to top bottom, we will be able to understand the market better, and understand what is happening which might show is certain trends that would be of an importance in picking the stock. Especially when we are buying stocks from different industries, understanding the economy first will always have a great step in comprehending different market stimuli. Based on the research that we have did, another suggestion could be investing in one of the indexes. This could always be an addition in terms of keeping our portfolio strong and dynamic, and being able to withstand any changes in the market. The reason for that is when you invest in something as big as the Page 57 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment S&P 500, your portfolio will be able to accommodate market changes, and have a stock that will cover for the other. Page 58 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 8. Conclusion To conclude, we believe that given next time a longer investment window and the above suggestions, we can say that in conclusion, we believe as investors we had a successful investment as we have generated 9% return on our portfolio. And although we had a successful investment, but we think that our success will be much greater in future if we followed the previous recommendations. Although as a team we had different point of views on the management of our portfolio, we have managed to utilize our strategy and philosophy on our portfolio and manage it successfully. Finally as beginners in the investment world, this experience has been very informative and useful for us; as we had the opportunity to gain knowledge and experience at the same time through searching, investing and observing the best preforming stocks in the market. Now thanks to all this information and experience we have the vital tools to be successful investors in the future. Page 59 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 9. List of References Apple Inc. (n.d). Apple Hot news. Retrieved from http://www.apple.com/pr/ CSI Market, (n.d). Price to Net Cash flow http://csimarket.com/screening/index.php?s=pc&pageS=1&fis= Screening. Retrieved from CSI Market. (n.d). Johnson &Johnson Comparison. Retrieved from http://csimarket.com/stocks/JNJEfficiency-Comparisons.html CSIMarjet. (n.d). FedEx Corporation Efficiency http://csimarket.com/stocks/FDX-Efficiency-Comparisons.html Comparison. Retrieved from CSIMarket, (2014). Apple Computer, Inc. (AAPL): Apple Computer's Long Term Debt to Equity. Retrieved on 18th November 2014 from http://csimarket.com/stocks/singleFinancialStrength.php?code=AAPL&Lte CSIMarket, (2014). Apple Computer, Inc. (AAPL):Apple Price to Cash Flow Ratio. Retrieved on 18th November 2014 from http://csimarket.com/stocks/single_company_valuation_ttm.php?code=AAPL&cf CSIMarket, (2014). Apple Computer, Inc. (AAPL):Apple Price to Free Cash Flow Ratio. Retrieved on 18th November 2014 from http://csimarket.com/stocks/single_company_valuation_ttm.php?code=AAPL&fcf CSIMarket, (n.d). Healthcare Sector: Valuation. http://csimarket.com/Industry/Industry_Valuation.php?ind=803 Retrieved from CSIMarket, (n.d). Nike Efficiency Comparison. Retrieved from http://csimarket.com/stocks/NKEEfficiency-Comparisons.html CSIMarket, (n.d). Price to Book Value http://csimarket.com/screening/index.php?s=pb Ratio Screening. Retrieved from CSIMarket, (n.d). Price to Sales (TTM) Ratio http://csimarket.com/screening/index.php?s=ps&pageS=1&fis= Screening. Retrieved from CSIMarket, (October 20th, 2014). What to watch for in Apple’s earnings . Retrieved from http://www.marketwatch.com/story/what-to-watch-for-in-apples-results-2014-10-17 CSIMArket. (n.d). Apple Efficiency Comparison. Retrieved from http://csimarket.com/stocks/AAPLEfficiency-Comparisons.html CSIMarket. (n.d). Apple Inc. Financial Strength Comparisons. http://csimarket.com/stocks/AAPL-Financial-Strength-Comparisons.html CSIMarket. (n.d). Apple Inc. Management Effectivenss. http://csimarket.com/stocks/AAPL-Management-Effectiveness-Comparisons.html Page 60 of 111 Retrieved Retrieved from from Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment CSIMarket. (n.d). FedEx Corporation Financial Strength Comparisons http://csimarket.com/stocks/FDX-Financial-Strength-Comparisons.html . Retrieved from CSIMarket. (n.d). FedEx Corporation Management Effectiveness. http://csimarket.com/stocks/FDX-Management-Effectiveness-Comparisons.html Retrieved from CSIMarket. (n.d). FedEx Corporation Valuation http://csimarket.com/stocks/FDX-Valuation-Comparisons.html Retrieved from Comparison. CSIMarket. (n.d). Johnson & Johnson Financial Strength http://csimarket.com/stocks/JNJ-Financial-StrengthComparisons.html?code=AA&image.x=0&image.y=0&image=go Comparisons. Retrieved from CSIMarket. (n.d). Johnson & Johnson Management Effectiveness. http://csimarket.com/stocks/JNJ-Management-Effectiveness-Comparisons.html Retrieved from CSIMarket. (n.d). Johnson & Johnson Valuation http://csimarket.com/stocks/JNJ-Valuation-Comparisons.html Comparison. Retrieved from CSIMarket. (n.d). Nike Inc. Financial Strength Comparisons. http://csimarket.com/stocks/NKE-Financial-Strength-Comparisons.html Retrieved from CSIMarket. (n.d). Nike Inc. Management Effectiveness. http://csimarket.com/stocks/NKE-Management-Effectiveness-Comparisons.html Retrieved from CSIMarket. (n.d). Nike Valuation Comparisons. Retrieved from http://csimarket.com/stocks/NKEValuation-Comparisons.html Daily Finance, (n.d). Apple Inc.: Financial Ratios. Retrieved from http://www.dailyfinance.com/quote/NASDAQ/apple/AAPL/financial-ratios?source=itxwebtxt0000007 Daily Finance, (n.d). Johnson & Johnson Inc.: Financial Ratios. http://www.dailyfinance.com/quote/NYSE/johnson-johnson/JNJ/financialratios?source=itxwebtxt0000007 Retrieved from Daily Finance, (n.d). Nike Corporation (NKE): Financial Corporation. Retrieved http://www.dailyfinance.com/quote/NYSE/nike/NKE/financial-ratios?source=itxwebtxt0000007 from Daily Finance. (n.d). FedEx Corporation: Financial Ratios. Retrieved http://www.dailyfinance.com/quote/NYSE/fedex/FDX/financial-ratios?source=itxwebtxt0000007 from FedEx Investors Relation, (2014). Performance at a Glance. Retrieved http://investors.fedex.com/financial-information/performance-at-a-glance/default.aspx from FedEx. (September 2nd, 2014). http://about.van.fedex.com/fedex_corporation from About Page 61 of 111 FedEx. Retrieved Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Financial Morningstar, (2014). Apple Inc. (AAPL). http://financials.morningstar.com/valuation/price-ratio.html?t=AAPL Financial Morningstar, (2014). Johnson & Johnson http://financials.morningstar.com/valuation/price-ratio.html?t=JNJ Retrieved JNJ. Retrieved from from Forbes, (2014). Earnings Review: Strong Performance In Europe And North America Keeps Nike On Growth Track. Retrieved from http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2014/06/30/earningsreview-strong-performance-in-europe-and-north-america-keeps-nike-on-growth-track/ FT-Market, (n.d). Apple Inc. :Director Dealings, Financials And Forecasts. Retrieved from http://markets.ft.com/research/Markets/Tearsheets/Directors-and-dealings?s=AAPL:NSQ Google Finance, (2014). Apple Inc. (AAPL)-Financials. Retrieved on November 17th, 2014 from http://www.google.com/finance?fstype=ii&q=nasdaq:aapl Guru Focus, (2014). Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ): Free Cash Flow Per Share: $5.08 (TTM As of Sep. 2014). Retrieved from http://www.gurufocus.com/term/per+share_freecashflow/JNJ/Free%2BCashflow%2Bper%2BShare/ GuruFocus, (2014). Apple Inc .(NAS:AAPL): Free Cash Flow Per Share: $8.09 (TTM As of Sep. 2014). Retrieved from http://www.gurufocus.com/term/per%20share_freecashflow/AAPL/Free+Cashflow+per+Share/Apple+I nc. GuruFocus, (2014). Apple Inc. (NAS:AAPL) Asset Turnover 0.19 (As of Sep. 2014. Retrieved on November 17th, 2014 from http://www.gurufocus.com/term/turnover/AAPL/Asset+Turnover/Apple+Inc GuruFocus, (2014). FedEx Corp (NYSE:FDX): Free Cash Flow Per Share: $2.28 (TTM As of Aug. 2014). Retrieved from http://www.gurufocus.com/term/per%20share_freecashflow/FDX/Free%2BCashflow%2Bper%2BShare/ FedEx%2BCorp GuruFocus, (2014). Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ): Earnings Per Share:$6.04 (TTM As of Sep. 2014). Retrieved from http://www.gurufocus.com/term/per%20share%20eps/JNJ/Earnings%252Bper%252BShare%252B%252 528diluted%252529/Johnson%2B%2526%2BJohnson GuruFocus, (2014). Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ)Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow Ratio 21.34 (As of Today). Retrieved from http://www.gurufocus.com/term/pfcf/JNJ/Price-to-Free-CashFlow%2Bratio/Johnson%2B%2526%2BJohnson GuruFocus. (2014). FedEx Corp (NYSE:FDX):Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow Ratio,75.66 (As of Today). Retrieved from http://www.gurufocus.com/term/pfcf/FDX/Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow%2Bratio/FedEx%2BCorp Page 62 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment GuruFocus. (n.d). 10 Year Financial Data of Apple http://www.gurufocus.com/financials/AAPL&affid=45223 GuruFocus. (n.d). 10 Year Financial http://www.gurufocus.com/financials/FDX Data of Inc. FedEx GuruFocus. (n.d). 10 Year Financial Data of Johnson & http://www.gurufocus.com/financials/JNJ GuruFocus. (n.d). 10 Year Financial Data http://www.gurufocus.com/financials/NKE of Nike (AAPL) . (FDX). Retrieved Retrieved from from Johnson (JNJ). Retrieved from Corporation (NKE). Retrieved from Hartford, J. (April 15th, 2014). Will J&J Dump Its Low-Performing Diabetes Device Business?. Retrieved from http://www.mddionline.com/article/will-jj-dump-its-low-performing-diabetes-device-business JNJ, (n.d). Diversity jnj/diversity/awards Awards & Recognition. Retrieved from http://www.jnj.com/about- JNJ, (n.d). Johnson & Johnson History. Retrieved from http://www.jnj.com/about-jnj/company-history JNJ, (n.d). Our Company. Retrieved from http://www.jnj.com/about-jnj JNJ, (n.d). Our Management Approach. Retrieved from http://www.jnj.com/about-jnj/managementapproach Johnson & Johnson: 2013 Historical Financial Review. Retrieved http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/JNJ/0x0x659959/c3bedbe2-568e-455f-a5b3d6b6b9df2ee3/Five_Year_Historical_Financial_Review.pdf Marish, D. (April 7th, 2011). Nike, Competitive Advantages. http://www.slideshare.net/divya-mishra/nike-competitive-advantages Retrieved from from Slideshare Market Analysis on Net, (2014). Long-term Debt and Solvency Analysis. Retrieved on 18th November 2014 from http://www.stock-analysis-on.net/NASDAQ/Company/Apple-Inc/Ratios/Long-term-Debt-andSolvency#Ratios-Summary Market Watch, (2014). Annual Financials for Apple Inc. Retrieved on November 17th, 2014 from http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/aapl/financials/balance-sheet Market Watch, (2014). Annual Financials for FedEx http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fdx/financials Corporation. Retrieved from Market Watch, (2014). Annual Financials for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). Retrieved on November 17th, 2014 from http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/jnj/financials Market Watch, (2014). Annual Financials for Johnson http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/jnj/financials Page 63 of 111 & Johnson. Retrieved from Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Market Watch, (2014). Annual Financials for http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nke/financials NikeInc. (NKE). Retrieved from MarketWatch, (2014). What to watch for in FedEx's earnings. Retrieved from http://news.morningstar.com/all/market-watch/TDJNMW20140916318/what-to-watch-for-in-fedexsearnings.aspx MarketWatch, (2014). Annual Financials for FedEx http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/fdx/financials MarketWatch, (2014). Annual Financials for Nike http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/nke/financials Corporation. Inc. (NKE). Retrieved from Retrieved from Mirza, N. (May 21st, 2012). Is Johnson & Johnson A Good Stock To Buy Right Now?. Retrieved on November 19th, 2014 from http://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/is-johnson-johnson-a-good-stock-tobuy-right-now-12518/ Nasdaq, (2014). Apple Inc. Analyst Forecasts Earnings Growth. Retrieved on 17th November 2014 from http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/earnings-growth NASDAQ. (n.d). Apple Inc. (AAPL) Analyst Forecast http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/earnings-growth NASDAQ. (n.d). Apple Inc. Analyst Stocks http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/recommendations Earnings Growth. Recommendations. Retrieved Retrieved from from NASDAQ. (n.d). Apple Inc. Nike Inc. (NKE)Forecast http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/nke/earnings-growth Earnings Growth. Retrieved from NASDAQ. (n.d). FedEx Corporation Analyst Forecast http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/fdx/earnings-growth Earnings Growth. Retrieved from NASDAQ. (n.d). FedEx Corporation Analyst Stocks http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/fdx/recommendations Recommendations. Retrieved from NASDAQ. (n.d). Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Analyst Forecast Earnings Growth. Retrieved from http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/jnj/earnings-growth NASDAQ. (n.d). Johnson & johnson. Analyst http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/jnj/analyst-research Stocks NASDAQ. (n.d). Nike, Inc. Analyst Stocks http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/nke/recommendations Recommendations. Recommendations. Retrieved Retrieved from from Nike Inc. (May 4th, 2010). Nike, Inc. Introduces 2015 Global Growth Strategy. Retrieved from http://news.nike.com/news/nike-inc-introduces-2015-global-growth-strategy Page 64 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Nike Inc. (n.d). Company Profile. Retrieved from http://about.nike.com/pages/company-profile Nike Inc. (November 20th, 2014). Investor News Details: Nike, Inc. Announces 17 Percent Increase In Quarterly Dividend. Retrieved from http://investors.nike.com/investors/news-events-andreports/investor-news/investor-news-details/2014/NIKE-Inc-Announces-17-Percent-Increase-inQuarterly-Dividend/default.aspx Pitman, S. (April 20th, 2014). Johnson and Johnson hit by poor US sales. Retrieved from http://www.cosmeticsdesign.com/Business-Financial/Johnson-Johnson-hit-by-poor-US-sales Reuters, (n.d). Healthcare Overview. Retrieved from http://www.reuters.com/assets/curtainMainContentLoader?view=RSM-US-Curtain-MainContentSector-Healthcare Reuters, (n.d). Technology Overview. Retrieved from http://www.reuters.com/assets/curtainMainContentLoader?view=RSM-US-Curtain-MainContentSector-Technology Reuters. (n.d). Ishares Dow Jones Us Consumer Goods Sector Idx Fd (IYK.P). Retrieved from http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/overview?symbol=IYK.P S&P 500 Price to Sales Ratio. Retrieved from http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-price-to-sales S&P 500 Sales Growth Rate. Retrieved from http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-sales-growth S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg and the Fed (US companies), (2014). Betas by Sector. Retrieved from http://people.stern.nyu.edu/adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/Betas.html S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg and the Fed (US companies). (2014). Price and Value to Book Ratio by Sector. Retrieved from http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/pbvdata.html S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg and the Fed (US companies). (2014). Revenue Multiple by Sector. Retrieved from http://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/psdata.html Stock Analysis on Net. (n.d). Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Price to FCFE (P/FCFE). Retrieved from http://www.stock-analysis-on.net/NYSE/Company/Johnson-Johnson/Valuation/Price-to-FCFE Stock Analysis on Net. (n.d). Nike Inc. (NKE) Price to FCFE (P/FCFE). Retrieved from http://www.stockanalysis-on.net/NYSE/Company/Nike-Inc/Valuation/Price-to-FCFE Stoffel, B. (May 28th, 2013). 3 Big Reasons to Own Johnson & Johnson Stock. Retrieved on November 19th, 2014 from http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/05/28/3-big-reasons-to-own-johnsonjohnson-stock.aspx Stuart, E. (October 8th, 2014). Technology Titans Lead Ranking of Most Valuable Brands. The New York Times. Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/09/business/media/tech-companies-leadranking-of-most-valuable-brands-.html?_r=1 Page 65 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment The Wall Street Journal, (2014). P/Es & Yields on http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2_3021-peyield.html Major Indexes. Retrieved from Villapaz, L. (November 13th, 2014). Apple Inc. (AAPL) Breaks Market Cap Record As Stock Surges To AllTime High After Series Of Upgrades. International Business Times. Retrieved from http://www.ibtimes.com/apple-inc-aapl-breaks-market-cap-record-stock-surges-all-time-high-afterseries-1723244 Yahoo Finance, (2014). FedEx Corporation (FDX):Analysts http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=FDX+Analyst+Opinion Yahoo Finance, (2014). FedEx Corporation http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=FDX+Key+Statistics (FDX):Key Opinion statistics. Retrieved from Retrieved from Yahoo Finance, (2014). FedEx Corporation (FDX):Profile. Retrieved from http://finance.yahoo.com/q;_ylt=ApZcwRttL02.nhHhO.5qMoPp8rcF?uhb=uhb2&fr=uh3_finance_vert_g s&type=2button&s=FDX%2C Yahoo Finance, (2014). Industry Browser - Healthcare Sector - Industry List. Retrieved from Yahoo Finance, (2014). Industry Browser - Services Sector - Industry List. Retrieved from http://biz.yahoo.com/p/7conameu.html Yahoo Finance, (2014). Johnson & Johnson https://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=JNJ+Key+Statistics Yahoo Finance, (2014). Johnson & https://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=JNJ+Profile (JNJ): Johnson Key (JNJ): Statistics. Profile. Retrieved Retrieved from from Yahoo Finance. (2014). Apple Inc. (AAPL)/profile. Retrieved on November 17th, 2014 from http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=aapl Ychart, (November 19th, 2014). Johnson & Johnson PE Ratio (TTM):17.99 for Nov. 19, 2014. Retrieved from http://ycharts.com/companies/AAPL/pe_ratio Page 66 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 10. Group Assignment Appendices 10.1 Financial Ratios Appendix 1: The Sector and the Industry that Apple Inc. operates in. Page 67 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The only dividend paid during the period is 0.47 Appendix: The Beta for Apple Inc. (AAPL). Page 68 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The closing Price as of 6th November 2014 is 108.70 and the dividend paid during the period is 0.47 Page 69 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The P/E, Price/Sales and Price/Book Ratios for Apple Stock (AAPL) Appendix: The financial Ratios for the Sector of ofConsumer Good and the Electronic Equipment Page 70 111 Industry Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The financial Ratios for the Sector of Healthcare and the Industry Drug Manufacture -Major Appendix: The financial Ratios for the Sector of Services and the Industry of Air Delivery & Freight Services Page 71 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The P/E Ratio for the S&P 500 (Source: The Wall Street Journal). Appendix : The Beta for the Electronic Equipment. (Source: S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg and the Fed (US companies) Appendix: The Beta for the Healthcare Sector. (Source: S&P Capital IQ, Bloomberg and the Fed (US companies) Appendix: The Beta for the Consumer Good Sector Page 72 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The Beta for the Drug Manufacture Appendix: The Beta for the Air Transport Industry Appendix: The Price/Sales Ratio for Sectors Page 73 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The Price/Sales Ratio for Drug Manufacture Industry Appendix: The Price/Sales Ratio for S&P 500 Appendix: The Price/Sales Ratio for Consumer Goods Sector Page 74 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Appendix: The Price/Book ratio for the JNJ Industry. Appendix: The Price/CF for Apple Industry . Appendix: The Price/CF forof JNJ and S&P 500. Page 75 111 . Group Assignment Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The Price/CF ratio for Apple Industry and S&P Appendix: The Price/CF ratio for Drug Manufactory Industry Page 76 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The Price/CF ratio for JNJ Appendix: The Price/CF ratio for the Sector and S&P 500 Page 77 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The Price/CF ratio for Nike Appendix: The Price/CF and Price/FCF ratio for FedeX and its industry Appendix: The Price/CF and Price/FCF ratio for Nike and its industry Page 78 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The Price/CF and Price/FCF ratio for Apple and its industry Appendix: The Price /FCF ratio for Consumer Goods Sector and S&P 500 (Source: CSIMarket) Page 79 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The Price /FCF ratio for Healthcare Sector (Source: CSIMarket) Appendix: The Price /FCF ratio for Service Sector (Source: CSIMarket) Page 80 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Appendix: The P/E Ratio for FedEx (Source: Ychart, 2014). Appendix: The P/E Ratio for Nike Inc(Source: Ychart, 2014). Page 81 of 111 Group Assignment Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The Current Ratio, Total Debt to Equity, ROA and ROE for Apple Stock (AAPL) Page 82 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The Sales growth of AAPL for 5 years is calculated through this formula (current year sales-previous year sales)/previous year sales Appendix: The Sales growth of JNJ for 5 years is calculated through this formula (current year sales-previous year sales)/previous year sales Appendix: The Sales growth of NKE for 5 years is calculated through this formula (current year sales-previous year sales)/previous year sales Page 83 of 111 Appendix: The Sales growth of FDX for 5 years is calculated through this formula (current year sales-previous year sales)/previous year sales Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The most recent Annual Turnover is 0.83 while the most recent Quartered Turnover is 0.19 for AAPL. (Source: GuruFocus, 2014) Appendix: The EBITDA 5 year Average for AAPL is calculated by adding the EBITDA figures for the last 5 years and divide the result by 5 resulting in 45.78 Billion (Source: marketwatch, 2014) Page 84 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The 5 year sales growth rate for JNJ and its industry (Source: daily Finance) Appendix: The 5 year sales growth rate for S&P 500 (Source: daily Finance) Page 85 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The Sales 5 year Growth Rate for FedEx is calculated by taking the average of the Growth rate over the last 5 years. (Source: marketwatch, 2014) Appendix: The LTD/Equity, Total Debt/Equity Ratio and Interest Coverage for JNJ, the industry and sectors. (Source:CSIMarket) Page 86 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The LTD/Equity, Total Debt/Equity Ratio and Interest Coverage for AAPL, the industry and sectors. (Source: CSIMarket) Appendix: The LTD/Equity, Total Debt/Equity Ratio and Interest Coverage for FDX, the industry and sectors. (Source: Page CSIMarket) 87 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The LTD/Equity, Total Debt/Equity Ratio and Interest Coverage for NKE, the industry and sectors. (Source: CSIMarket) Appendix: The EBITDA for 5 years for FedEx . (Source: MarketWatch) Page 88 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The EBITDA for 5 years for JNJ . (Source: MarketWatch) Appendix: The EBITDA for 5 years for NKE . (Source: MarketWatch) Appendix: The EBITDA for 5 years for AAPL . (Source: MarketWatch) Page 89 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The Sales 5 year Growth Rate for AAPL is calculated by taking the average of the Growth rate over the last 5 years which is equal to 32% (Source: marketwatch, 2014) Appendix: The Price-to-Cash-Flow (TTM) Ratio for Apple Inc. (Source: CSIMarket, 2014) Page 90 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The Price-to-Free-Cash-Flow (TTM) Ratio for Apple Inc. (Source: CSIMarket, 2014) Appendix: The Interest Coverage Ratio for Apple Inc. (Source: Market Analysis on Net, 2014) Page 91 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The LTD/Equity Ratio for Apple Inc. (Source: CSIMarket, 2014) Page 92 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The ROA, ROE and Asset Turnover for NKE. (Source: GuruFocus) Appendix: The ROA, ROE and Asset Turnover for NKE. (Source: GuruFocus) Page 93 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The ROA, ROE and Asset Turnover for JNJ. (Source: GuruFocus) Appendix: The ROA, ROE and Asset Turnover for AAPL. (Source: GuruFocus) Page 94 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The Asset Turnover for Nike, industry, sector and S&P 500. (Source: CSIMarket) Appendix: The Asset Turnover for APPL, industry, sector and S&P 500. (Source: CSIMarket) Appendix: The Asset Turnover for JNJ, industry, sector and S&P 500. (Source: CSIMarket) Page 95 of 111 Appendix: The Asset Turnover for JNJ, industry, sector and S&P 500. (Source: CSIMarket) Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The ROE and ROA for FDX, industry, sector and S&P 500. (Source: CSIMarket) Appendix: The ROE and ROA for AAPL, industry, sector and S&P 500. (Source: CSIMarket) Appendix: The ROE and ROA for JNJ, industry, sector and S&P 500. (Source: CSIMarket) Appendix: The ROE and ROA for NKE industry, sector and S&P 500. (Source: CSIMarket) Page 96 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Appendix: The Broker Recommendation mean (Analysts Opinion) for Apple Inc. Appendix: The Recommendation Trend by Brokers for Apple Inc. Page 97 of 111 Group Assignment Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The Forecast Earnings Growth for Apple Inc for the coming 5 years. (Source: Nasdaq, 2014). Page 98 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 10.2 Appendices for stock 2: Johnson & Johnson (Stock Ticker: JNJ) Appendix: The Sector and the Industry that J&J operates in. Page 99 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The P/E Ratio for JNJ. (Source:Ychart, 2014). Page 100 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: The Beta for JNJ. Page 101 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: Price/Sales and Price/Book Ratio for J&J. Page 102 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: Price/CF Ratio for JNJ, the industry and the S&P500. (Source: Moringstar, 2014) Appendix: Price/FCF for J&J as the end of Q3 in 2014. Page 103 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: Price/FCF for J&J as the end of Q3 in 2014. Appendix: The Current Ratio and Total Debt to Equity Ratio for JNJ. Page 104 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment 10.2 Securities’ closing prices and dividend payments during the holding period Appendix: Closing Prices of JNJ as 19th September. Appendix: Closing Prices of JNJ as of 6th November Page 105 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: Closing Prices of HICOX as 19th September. Appendix: Closing Prices of HICOX as 6th November. Page 106 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: Closing Prices of ARE as 19th September. Appendix: Closing Prices of ARE as 6th November. Page 107 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Appendix: Closing Prices of NKE as 19th September. Appendix: Closing Prices of NKE as 6th November. Page 108 of 111 Group Assignment Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: Closing Prices of FDX as of 19th September. Appendix: Closing Prices of FDX as of 6th November Page 109 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: Dividend payment for ARE during the holding period. Appendix: Dividend payment for HICOX during the holding period. Page 110 of 111 Investment & Portfolio Management BSB-6302 Group Assignment Appendix: Closing Prices of Apple as 19th September. Appendix: Closing Prices of Apple as 6th November and Dividend payment. Page 111 of 111