The Sun Corridor Seminar:
PAF 591, Spring 2006
Final Class Presentation
Instructors:
Robert Lang, Virginia Tech
John Hall, ASU
What’s in This Talk?
 Review of Megapolitan Area
Geography
 Arizona Sun Corridor Geography
 The Sun Corridor’s Ten Urban Realms
 Central Class Findings
 What’s in This Talk? Next Steps in the
Sun Corridor Project
Megas
In the
News
Arizona
Republic
March
2006
The Reality is That They Have
Already Statistically Merged
Business 2.0 November 2005
Megapolitan Area Centerfold
Original 2005
Megapolitan Geography
2006 Metropolitan Hierarchy
Types
Description
Examples
Metropolitan
Current definition of the Census
Bureau
Pittsburgh, Boise
Metroplex
Two or more metropolitan areas
that share overlapping suburbs
but the main principal cities do
not touch
Dallas/Ft. Worth,
Washington/
Baltimore
Corridor
Megapolitan
Two or more metropolitan areas
with anchor principal cities
between 75 and 150 miles apart
that form an extended linear
urban area along an Interstate
Arizona Sun Corridor
(Phoenix/Tucson),
SanSac (San
Francisco/
Sacramento)
Galactic
Megapolitan
Three or more metropolitan areas
with anchor principal cities over
150 miles apart that form an
urban web over a broad area that
is laced with Interstates
Piedmont, Great
Lakes Crescent
Megaplex
Two megapolitan areas that are
proximate and occupy common
cultural and physical
environments and maintain dense
business linkages
Megalopolis and
Great Lakes
Crescent, Sun
Corridor and SoCal
Evolving 20th Century
Metropolitan Form
21st Century Corridor
Megapolitan Form
Urban Realms
Arizona
Sun
Corridor
Arizona Sun Corridor’s
Types of Urban Realms
Types
Description
Original core of metropolitan
development. Cores are dense
and often built out.
Realms
Central Valley
Tucson Valley
Favored
Quarter
The most affluent realm
containing upscale housing,
retail, and office space.
Northeast Valley
Foothills
Maturing
Suburbs
Rapidly developing suburbs with East Valley
mature older sections and
West Valley
booming edges.
Emerging
Exurbs
The most scattered and
detached urban development in
the region. Exurbs contain the
most affordable housing.
Urban Core
Mid Corridor
Northwest Valley
Santa Cruz Valley
San Pedro Valley
Arizona 2000 Population
Center for the Future of Arizona
2000
Arizona 2000 Population
Center for the Future of Arizona
2050
Housing and Equity
Housing/Equity Issues in the Sun
Corridor Realms
Housing Market Values by Realm
Housing Appreciation Rates by Realm
Housing Burden and Overcrowding by Realm
Comparisons between Phoenix and Tucson
Housing Markets – Simultaneity?
 Comparison between Phoenix & Tucson
Housing Markets
 Changing demographics will change the form
of housing.




The Sun Corridor: 10-20 %
Average Annualized Rate of
Domestic Net Migration –
Where Will These People Live?
Source: “Domestic Net Migration in the United States: 2000-2004”, U.S. Census Bureau, 4/20/06
(www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/p25-1135.pdf)
The Sun Corridor is a Destination for
People who are Relocating
Source: “Domestic Net Migration in the United States: 2000-2004”, U.S. Census Bureau, 4/20/06
(www.census.gov/prod/2006pubs/p25-1135.pdf)
“The West is The Best”
- Jim Morrison, The End, 1967
Home Price Appreciation in Selected Metros
LA
Las Vegas
Phoenix
Tucson
Austin
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05
Estimated Median
Market Value
$600,000
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
Northwest West Valley
Valley
Central
Valley
Northeast East Valley
Valley
Mid
Corridor
Foothills
Tucson
Valley
Santa Cruz San Pedro
Valley
Valley
Source: www.zillow.com
Housing Appreciation
400%
350%
300%
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
Northwest
Valley
West Valley
Central Valley
Northeast
Valley
East Valley
1 Year
Mid Corridor
5 Years
Foothills
Tucson Valley
Santa Cruz
Valley
San Pedro
Valley
10 Years
Source: www.zillow.com
The Sun Corridor had 3 out of the Top 20
Metropolitan Statistical Areas and
Divisions with Highest Rates of House
Price Appreciation
Percent Change in House Prices
with MSA Rankings
(4th Quarter 2005 House Price Index)
(Period Ended December 31, 2005)
MSA
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale
Prescott
Tucson
Ranking
1 Yr.
Qtr.
5 Yr.
1
39.6
7
7.77
93.02
5
31.8
9
6.93
86.72
15
30.0
2
7.00
81.93
Source: “Housing Price Appreciation Continues At Robust Pace”, Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), 3/1/06
Housing Burden
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Northwest
Valley
West Valley
Central Valley
Northeast
Valley
East Valley
Cost Burden
Mid Corridor
Foothills
Tucson Valley
Santa Cruz
Valley
San Pedro
Valley
Severe Cost Burden
Source: www.dataplace.org
Overcrowded Housing
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Northwest
Valley
West Valley
Central Valley
Northeast
Valley
East Valley
Mid Corridor
Foothills
Tucson Valley
Santa Cruz
Valley
San Pedro
Valley
Source: www.dataplace.org
Phoenix and Tucson both
outpace comparison cities
2005 Annual Appreciation
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
San Diego
Los Angeles
Las Vegas
Phoenix
Tucson
Albuquerque
Denver
Dallas
Austin
Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05
Phoenix and Tucson both
outpace comparison cities
5 Year Cumulative Appreciation
140%
120%
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
San Diego
Los Angeles
Las Vegas
Phoenix
Tucson
Albuquerque
Denver
Dallas
Austin
Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05
Phoenix and Tucson
Comparison
50
Average Price, Homes Sold on MLS
40
Phoenix
30
Tucson
20
10
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Percent Change vs. Year Ago
Source: “Economic Outlook: 2006-2007”, Eller College of Management, University of Arizona, 12/9/05
Golf Links to Social Links:
The Impact of the Emerging Latino Demographic
 Median age of White population in Arizona: 40
 Median Latino population: 24 – These are the home
buyers of the next 30 years.
 Survey data indicates different housing preferences
for this market.
– Inclusion of elderly family members in household.
– Access to public transportation and nearby shopping a
priority
– ‘Country-club lifestyle’ not as attractive
– Less resistance to attached housing
 The emergence of Latino home buyers will change
the urban form of the Sun Corridor.
Education
Education in the Sun Corridor
 How do the Sun Corridor’s K-12 and higher
education systems prepare students for the
higher level, often high-tech jobs of the
future?
“Living on the Kindness of
Strangers”
• Discrepancy between those who are transplants
to the Sun Corridor and those who are educated
in the Sun Corridor
• The percentage of those over 25 with a bachelor’s
degree is above the national average
• The percentage of those over 25 with a high
school diploma is at the national average
English Language Learners
(ELL)
 Spanish is the primary home language of
20% of K-12 students in the Sun Corridor
(Nat. Average 10%)
 Proposition 203 ended most Bilingual
Education programs and replaced them
with Structured English Immersion (SEI)
programs
Higher Education in the Sun
Corridor
 In the 2006 U.S. News and World report College
Rankings, the Sun Corridor had only one
University in the top 100 (University of Arizonatied for 97th)
 Every other megapolitan region has at least one
university ranked higher than the U of A
 Peninsula megapolitan is the next lowest with the
University of Miami, tied for 55th
Community Colleges
 Sun Corridor is a national leader
 The Maricopa County Community System is the
largest in the nation (over 250,000 students)
 Community colleges serve a preparation function
for four-year colleges and engage in job training
Leading Realms in Higher Education
State UniversitiesMain or Branch
Campuses
Other Educational
Institutions of Note
Central Valley
ASU West, ASU
Downtown Center
Several community
colleges Thunderbird
School of
Management
East Valley
Main Campus ASU
ASU East
Several community
colleges
Tucson Valley
University of Arizona
Pima Community
College
Exurban Realms
State UniversitiesMain or Branch
campuses
Other Institutions of
Note
Northwest Valley
None
Prescott College
Yavapai College
Embry-Riddle
Aeronautical
University
Santa Cruz Valley
None
None
San Pedro Valley
None
Cochise College
Very Underserved Realms
State UniversitiesMain or Branch
Campuses
Other Institutions of
Note
West Valley
None
One community
college
Northeast Valley
None
One community
college
Mid-Corridor
None
One community
college
Foothills
None
None
Economy
Topics
 Composition of the Economy
 Realm Share of Development
 Employment Centers
Economic Composition
 Leading Industries
– Construction/Real
Estate
– Consumer Services
 Secondary Industries
– Aerospace
– Producer Services
• F.I.RE
• Law, Marketing
– High-Tech/Bio
– Military
– Entrepreneurial
 Opportunities
– Baby Boomer Bio
– Western Product
Gateway
– Next Generation
Infrastructure
Market Share
Inventory – Office Development
40,000,000
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
Central
Valley
NE Valley East Valley West Valley
Tucson
Metro
Source: CB Richard Ellis, 2005
Inventory – Industrial Development
140,000,000
120,000,000
100,000,000
80,000,000
60,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
0
Central
Valley
NE Valley East Valley
West
Valley
Tucson
Metro
Source: CB Richard Ellis, 2005
Inventory – Retail Development
45,000,000
40,000,000
35,000,000
30,000,000
25,000,000
20,000,000
15,000,000
10,000,000
5,000,000
0
Central
Valley
NE Valley East Valley West Valley
Tucson
Metro
Source: CB Richard Ellis, 2005
Realm by Realm
Assets, Opportunities & Challenges
Employment Centers
Economic Development in the Realms
Northwest Valley:

The Room Upstairs
–
Assets
•
–
Prescott Airport
Opportunities
•
•
–
Anthem
Lake Pleasant
Challenges
•
•
Connectivity to
Phoenix
Transportation
Corridors
 West Valley:
The Sleeping Giant
– Assets
• Available Land Mass
• Airports
– Opportunities
• Future freeway
corridors (303, 801)
• Building [sub]urban
core from scratch
– Challenges
• Getting someone to
test the water
Economic Development in the Realms
Central Valley:
Employment Center

–
Assets
•
•
•
–
Downtown Phoenix
Sky Harbor
I-10 Distribution
Corridor
Opportunities
•
•
–
Redevelopment
Stadium/Arena
Challenges
•
•
•
Aging Infrastructure
Suburban Flight
Residential
Composition
 Northeast Valley:
The Crown Jewel
– Assets
• Camelback Corridor
• Scottsdale Airpark
• Deer Valley Airport
– Opportunities
• Old Towne
Redevelopment
• Palisene
– Challenges
• Affordability
• Infill Opportunity
Economic Development in the Realms
East Valley:
Young & Emerging

–
Assets
•
•
•
–
ASU
Chandler/Price
Corridor
Mesa Airports
Opportunities
•
•
–
SanTan Corridor
Original Core
Redevelopment
Challenges
•
Available Land
 Mid Corridor:
In the Crosshairs
– Assets
• Phoenix Regional Airport
• 1-10 and I-8
– Opportunities
• Land, Land, Land
• Intermodel Hub of
Region
– Challenges
• Cohesive Land &
Transportation Planning
• Sense of place as
connecting point
between Phoenix and
Tucson
Economic Development in the Realms
Foothills: Uptown

–
Assets
•
•
–
Wealth
Resorts
Opportunities
•
•
–
Oro Valley corridor
Marana
Challenges
•
Connectivity to
Tucson Metro and
the Mid Corridor
 Tucson Valley:
Downtown
– Assets
• UofA
• Downtown Tucson
– Opportunities
• Employment Center
serving all 4 Tucson
realms
– Challenges
• Transportation
Economic Development in the Realms
Santa Cruz Valley:
The Gateway

–
Assets
•
–
I-19
Opportunities
•
•
–
Transition center
between Mexico/US
I-19 connection
to/from Mexico
Challenges
•
Connectivity to
other realms
 San Pedro Valley:
Still Camouflaged
– Assets
• Fort Huachuca
– Opportunities
• Transition center
between Mexico/US
• I-10 connection to El
Paso
– Challenges
• Connectivity to other
realms
Infrastructure
Population Growth=More Congestion
Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled, per region
(in millions of miles)
100
90
80
70
60
50
2002
2020
40
30
20
10
0
Northern
Corridor
Mid Corridor Tucson Valley
and Foothills
Highway Projects in Sun Corridor
Projects in the Sun Corridor—Filling
the Gaps
CANAMEX
Sun Corridor pop. weighted to north
Housing Units
2010
Airports follow the people …
2010
Northern tier’s realms dominate
Sun Corridor aviation
 PHX:
20 million passengers
504,000 air carrier operations
 TUC:
4 million passengers
43,000 air carrier operations
Pop. balance shifts south
Housing Units
2010
2050
Where will the next PHX be?
?
2050
Is the Sun Corridor DFW or
LAX?
 Dallas-Fort Worth = centralized model
– Less complex, for passengers, industry
– Better control of environmental issues
– Requires authority
 Los Angeles = reliever system
– Redundancy
– Complex airspace, connection, access
– Shares economic burden, boom
 Recent trends  PHX = LAX
And will rail be included?
 MAG, ADOT and others pushing for it
 Lack of connection between north, south,
Mid
 Increasing population pressure from Mid
 Commuter rail vs. light rail: access from
both north, south and Mid
In and Out of the Sun
Corridor
 Freeways/Highways:
–
–
–
–
Congestion—Central Corridor
Tucson must build highways
Need for increased planning between realms
Revenue challenge
 Aviation
– Current population imbalance drives reliever system,
LAX style
– Southward population shift may demand regional
airport in Mid-Corridor
– Regional airport, population pressure may push rail
effort
Environment and Open Space
Active Management Areas
AMA Annual Use
AMA Annual Us e (acre -fe e t)
2,000,000
1,800,000
1,600,000
1,400,000
1,200,000
1,000,000
800,000
600,000
400,000
200,000
0
Prescot t
AM A
Phoenix
AM A
Pinal
AM A
Tucson
AM A
Sant a
Cruz
AM A
Sun Corridor: Water
Sun Corridor: Water
Infrastructure
Salt River Project watershed
Central Arizona Project
Groundwater
CAP Annual Permitted Recharge Capacity (acre-feet)
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
West Northeast East
Valley Valley
Valley
Source: CAP
Tucson
Valley
Santa
Cruz
Valley
San
Pedro
Valley
*The Northwest, Central, Mid Corridor, and
Foothills realms have no pumping stations
Air Quality
2004 Annual Daily Average
Particle Matter less than 10 Microns
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
ey lley lle y lley lle y ridor hills lley lle y lley
l
l
a
a
a
a
a
a
t
a
a
t V st V ral V st V st V Cor Foo n V u z V ro V
s
o
e
a Ea
t
d
cs ta Cr Ped
We Ce n rthe
Mi
hw
u
t
r
T an
n
Source: AZDEQ
No
No
Sa
S
Open Space
Open Space




Environmental Impact
Economic Impact
Preservation of significant areas
Quality of Life
Effective Open Space
Conservation




Local political and constituent support
Strong state enabling legislation
Healthy local economy
Community’s public financing capacity
–
–
–
–
Borrowing history
Bonding capacity
Degree of fiscal power and authority
Tax base
Open Space and the Realms
What Future?
Conclusions
General Sun Corridor
Key Policy Implications
 The Sun Corridor is the Fastest Growing
Megapolitan—Especially The West Valley
 The Sun Corridor’s Interstate Network is
Designed for Inter not Intra-Metropolitan Trips
 Megapolitan-Level Policies for Transportation,
Environmental Pres. and Economic Development
 Plan for Urban Realms—Each Realm Needs
Some Measure of Autonomy
 But Realms also Need More Effective Integration
and Coordination
Specific Urban Realm
Key Policy Implications
 Core Realms
– Infill and Redevelopment
 Favored Quarter Realms
– Job/Housing Balance and Affordable Housing
 Maturing Suburbs Realms
– Create Mixed Use Centers
 Emerging Exurban Realms
– Open Space Preservation
Next Steps
 June 2006 – Rollout of Key Findings
Including Projections for Population,
Employment, Housing, and Commercial
Construction in a Joint ASU-VT Press
Conference
 Fall 2006 – Morrison Institute Publishes
Sun Corridor Final Report