CRR Update to CMWG
ERCOT CRR Team
Congestion Management Working Group
Aug 7, 2013
Outline of Discussion
CRR Auction Discussion:
• Summary of Completed Long-Term Auction Sequence
• Consideration of Planning Model changes in CRR Auction
• Consideration of CRR Network Model posting timing
• Consideration of changes in SPS and RAPs in multi-month auctions
• Consideration of Credit Lock issues and timing
• Consideration of Auction Calendar (no updates planned)
– Related to posting of 6 year Model (NPRR 551)
• CRR Roadmap update
• NPRR484/554 Project update
CMWG
August 2013
Outline of Discussion
CRR Auction Discussion:
• Summary of Completed Long-Term Auction Sequence
• Consideration of Planning Model changes in CRR Auction
• Consideration of CRR Network Model posting timing
• Consideration of changes in SPS and RAPs in multi-month auctions
• Consideration of Credit Lock issues and timing
• Consideration of Auction Calendar (no updates planned)
– Related to posting of 6 year Model (NPRR 551)
• CRR Roadmap update
• NPRR484/554 Project update
CMWG
August 2013
Long-Term Auction Sequence Summary
Sequence 1 Summary
Reminder: 70% model scaling due to prior scaling in Year 2/Year1
auction for July-December 2013
Transaction bid limits 2,000/CRRAH (up to 6,000/Counterparty)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Credit Lock
Number of participating CRRAH
Number of bid/offer transactions
Number of cleared Transactions
Net Revenue of Auction
= $489 million
= 148
= 96k
= 18k
= $ 32 million
Delayed start of auction due to ERCOT’s removal of an erroneous
contingency definition (DBNDELM8) in the market systems that could
have commercially significant impacts on auction results.
Auction published 1 week early
CMWG
August 2013
Long-Term Auction Sequence Summary
Sequence 2 Summary
Reminder: 45% model scaling for Jan1-June 2014
Transaction bid limits 2,000/CRRAH (up to 6,000/Counterparty)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Credit Lock
Number of participating CRRAH
Number of bid/offer transactions
Number of cleared Transactions
Net Revenue of Auction
= $500 million
= 142
= 96k
= 21k
= $56 million
Auction published 1 week early
NPRR530/LCRA Load Zone changes and re-posting model
CMWG
August 2013
Long-Term Auction Sequence Summary
Sequence 3 Summary
Reminder: 30% model scaling for July-Dec 2014
Transaction bid limits 2,000/CRRAH (up to 6,000/Counterparty)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Credit Lock
Number of participating CRRAH
Number of bid/offer transactions
Number of cleared Transactions
Net Revenue of Auction
= $489 million
= 144
= 101k
= 15k
= $43 million
Auction published 1 week early
NPRR530/LCRA Load Zone changes and re-posting model
CMWG
August 2013
Long-Term Auction Sequence Summary
Sequence 4 Summary
Reminder: 15% model scaling for Jan1-June 2015
Inclusive of PCRRs nominations for first half of 2015
Transaction bid limits 2,000/CRRAH (up to 6,000/Counterparty)
•
•
•
•
•
•
Credit Lock
Number of participating CRRAH
Number of bid/offer transactions
Number of cleared Transactions
Net Revenue of Auction
= $372 million
= 128
= 83k
= 12k
= $33 million
Auction published 1 week early
CMWG
August 2013
Current Inventory
As discussed at June CMWG, ERCOT will try to provide graphical view of
inventory stacks.
CMWG
August 2013
Current Inventory
As discussed at June CMWG, ERCOT will try to provide graphical view of
inventory stacks.
CMWG
August 2013
Long-Term Auction Sequence Summary
Lessons learned and FAQ
Regarding scaling of ownership, should ERCOT provide inventory to include
scaling values (PCRR vs regular CRR inventory)?
•
Protocols for new report to improve NPRR463 should be submitted by interested
market participants
Why was I not awarded for a CRR bid that was in the money
•
Most likely due to budget constraint
CMWG
August 2013
Long-Term Auction Sequence Summary
Lessons learned and FAQ (continued)
Since ERCOT published auctions early, will ERCOT change timeline?
•
Two reasons it is too early to revisit this timeline change:
– Need to allow inventory to build-up (stacking effect of going from 3->5 auctions)
and monitoring performance
– Focus in implementation and performance of 300,000 bid limit, and NPRR484
Can ERCOT consider later NOMCRs and outage that come in after the model
snapshot? Discuss more later in presentation
Credit Lock issues (missed lock date, transposed values)
•
Consider protocols/system changes to make credit lock and bid dates the same (so
CRRAH has better visibility into Counterparty lock and can change if missed or an
error) Discuss more later in presentation
CMWG
August 2013
Outline of Discussion
CRR Auction Discussion:
• Summary of Completed Long-Term Auction Sequence
• Consideration of Planning Model changes in CRR Auction
• Consideration of CRR Network Model posting timing
• Consideration of changes in SPS and RAPs in multi-month auctions
• Consideration of Credit Lock issues and timing
• Consideration of Auction Calendar (no updates planned)
– Related to posting of 6 year Model (NPRR 551)
• CRR Roadmap update
• NPRR484/554 Project update
CMWG
August 2013
CRR Model Build- Sample of Changes in Energization Dates
- Prior to 2012 Annual Auctions there was consensus at CMWG to exclude
Planning changes due to uncertainty and movement of energization dates.
- August 2013: question of whether to reconsider use of Planning Model
Changes in multi-month CRR Auctions
CMWG
August 2013
Planning Model Changes Trade-off
•
•
•
ERCOT is open to transitioning to planning model changes, but recognizes
there are benefits and risks.
– Reminder- current method is current Network Operations Model plus future
NOMCRs & Outages up to 12-months in advance
Pros for including Planning Model Changes
– Best estimate of what the model will look like more than 6 months in the future
– Less constrained system since transmission improvements in place
Cons when including Planning Model Changes
– When projects not on-schedule, CRR oversells constraint and cascades into
subsequent auctions and DAM (can also happen on approved NOMCRs)
CMWG
August 2013
Outline of Discussion
CRR Auction Discussion:
• Summary of Completed Long-Term Auction Sequence
• Consideration of Planning Model changes in CRR Auction
• Consideration of CRR Network Model posting timing
• Consideration of changes in SPS and RAPs in multi-month auctions
• Consideration of Credit Lock issues and timing
• Consideration of Auction Calendar (no updates planned)
– Related to posting of 6 year Model (NPRR 551)
• CRR Roadmap update
• NPRR484/554 Project update
CMWG
August 2013
Most Outages inside of 45-days for CRR Model snapshot
Outages trend presented at May Board
• 2013 is peak of West Texas / CREZ construction and outages
• Outages are not all received in time for CRR model build
CMWG
August 2013
Network Model Posting Change Consideration
•
•
ERCOT is open to reconsideration of CRR model posting timelines
If market would like to reduce window of time between snapshot of the
model/outages and the monthly auction, consider the following proposal to take
the model snapshot later:
– Pros
• More accurate model information by taking snapshot later in business process
• Studies show that up to 10% more outages would be captured (compared to current)
– Cons
• CRRAH lose time for considering CRR monthly model for analysis prior to bids/offers.
• May only mean 2-3 additional business days for the monthly auctions
CURRENT 7.5.3 ERCOT Responsibilities
(1) ERCOT shall:
(i) Post CRR Network Model of the effective month of the auction on the MIS Secure Area, before each CRR Auction:
(i) For the CRR Monthly Auction, the model shall be posted no later than 10 Business Days before the
auction.
POTENTIAL 7.5.3 ERCOT Responsibilities
(1) ERCOT shall:
(i) Post CRR Network Model of the effective month of the auction on the MIS Secure Area, before each CRR Auction:
(i) For the CRR Monthly Auction or for any CRR Long-Term Auction Sequence, the models shall be posted no
later than 1 Business Day before the opening of the CRR credit submission window for that auction .
CMWG
August 2013
Outline of Discussion
CRR Auction Discussion:
• Summary of Completed Long-Term Auction Sequence
• Consideration of Planning Model changes in CRR Auction
• Consideration of CRR Network Model posting timing
• Consideration of changes in SPS and RAPs in multi-month auctions
• Consideration of Credit Lock issues and timing
• Consideration of Auction Calendar (no updates planned)
– Related to posting of 6 year Model (NPRR 551)
• CRR Roadmap update
• NPRR484/554 Project update
CMWG
August 2013
Consideration of changes in SPS and RAPs in
multi-month auctions
•
Treatment of RAPs in multi-month auctions
– RAPs undergo an annual review and have “expiration dates” tied to them
– Typically review is April/May for ERCOT and TSP analysis
– Historically ERCOT has excluded RAPs in multi-month auctions for
months auctioned after these RAPs “expire”
– Issue: Market suggested including them for all future months even after
“expiration.” In 2013 five RAPs were expired and two were added that
would impact the CRR auction. So if ERCOT had used these RAPs in
previous auctions, potentially oversold situations could arise.
– Action Plan: ERCOT is open to extending RAPs indefinitely in the multimonth auctions with some risk (arguably not significant) in overselling the
auction. Would like feedback from CMWG on this option.
CMWG
August 2013
Consideration of changes in SPS and RAPs in
multi-month auctions
•
Treatment of SPSs in multi-month auctions
– SPS undergo a review process every 5 years and do not have expiration
dates
– SPS can be tied to a planned project in TPIT that can potentially serve as
an Exit Plan.
– Planned projects are typically identified as possibly providing loading relief,
but not intended as full exit strategy for SPS.
– Currently: SPS are included in all CRR auctions and removed only when
SPS is deactivated.
– Action Plan: ERCOT currently plans to continue this practice but would like
feedback from CMWG.
CMWG
August 2013
Outline of Discussion
CRR Auction Discussion:
• Summary of Completed Long-Term Auction Sequence
• Consideration of Planning Model changes in CRR Auction
• Consideration of CRR Network Model posting timing
• Consideration of changes in SPS and RAPs in multi-month auctions
• Consideration of Credit Lock issues and timing
• Consideration of Auction Calendar (no updates planned)
– Related to posting of 6 year Model (NPRR 551)
• CRR Roadmap update
• NPRR484/554 Project update
CMWG
August 2013
Credit issue to consider
•
Removing ERCOT from Credit Management for Counterparty
– ERCOT Lessons Learned includes ongoing issues and appeals of missed credit
locks by Counterparty
– Protocols have flexibility in ERCOT periodically intervening when Credit Lock issues
arise (eg, omission of locking credit)
– ERCOT is considering the means to tighten the processes and minimize ex-post
adjustments.
•
Reminder: CRR system does not send credit limits to CMM for the
auction until the auction lock date time (5:00pm CPT), so there are about
10 days from the Market Notice Date until the credit lock date and time to
set auction credit limits in the CRR interface by the Counterparty.
CMWG
August 2013
Outline of Discussion
CRR Auction Discussion:
• Summary of Completed Long-Term Auction Sequence
• Consideration of Planning Model changes in CRR Auction
• Consideration of CRR Network Model posting timing
• Consideration of changes in SPS and RAPs in multi-month auctions
• Consideration of Credit Lock issues and timing
• Consideration of Auction Calendar (no updates planned)
– Related to posting of 6 year Model (NPRR 551)
• CRR Roadmap update
• NPRR484/554 Project update
CMWG
August 2013
Information related to CRR Calendar and NPRR551
NPRR551 adds a 6th Year to the planning model and delays its posting
from Oct 15th to Nov 15th
Note for CRR Calendar:
Protocols 7.5.1 A calendar of key milestone dates, specifically the weeks of bid and credit windows for each CRR
Auction in the CRR Long-Term Auction Sequence, must be approved in final form by the Technical Advisory
Committee (TAC) no later than the earliest of May 1 (for a CRR Long-Term Auction Sequence to be held in the
second half of a year), November 1 (for one being held in the first half of the following year), or 120 days prior to
the planned closure of the bid window for the first CRR Auction in the CRR Long-Term Auction Sequence.
CMWG
August 2013
Outline of Discussion
CRR Auction Discussion:
• Summary of Completed Long-Term Auction Sequence
• Consideration of Planning Model changes in CRR Auction
• Consideration of CRR Network Model posting timing
• Consideration of changes in SPS and RAPs in multi-month auctions
• Consideration of Credit Lock issues and timing
• Consideration of Auction Calendar (no updates planned)
– Related to posting of 6 year Model (NPRR 551)
• CRR Roadmap update
• NPRR484/554 Project update
CMWG
August 2013
CRR Roadmap
2013
Q1
Q2
2014
Q3
Q4
CRR Linux Upgrade stabilization/Decommission
NPRR463 – 6 month/Rolling Auction
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Parking Deck:
NPRR455 Shift Factors
NPRR463 Potential improvements
CRR API functionality
PhaseShiftTxfrmr Optimization
Improved Contingency definitions
Oracle 11G Vendor testing
- Nexant testing (Summer)
Oracle 11G ERCOT migration
- ERCOT FAT/iTest/Prod
NPRR484 Phase 1a- CRR/Credit (Oct)
NPRR484 Phase 1b- CRR/Credit follow-on
NPRR407 Phase 2- CRR Credit reporting
Increase above 200,000 bids:
Early Lab test complete, ERCOT support of more scenarios
Stress testing 300,000 bid limit on Linux for Oct go-live (v13.1)
SCR769 CRR Read-Only Report
Access
CMWG
August 2013
Outline of Discussion
CRR Auction Discussion:
• Summary of Completed Long-Term Auction Sequence
• Consideration of Planning Model changes in CRR Auction
• Consideration of CRR Network Model posting timing
• Consideration of changes in SPS and RAPs in multi-month auctions
• Consideration of Credit Lock issues and timing
• Consideration of Auction Calendar (no updates planned)
– Related to posting of 6 year Model (NPRR 551)
• CRR Roadmap update
• NPRR484/554 Project update
CMWG
August 2013
NPRR484/554 Project Update
•
The project for NPRR484/554 is in the planning stages and portions are planned for
implementation in October 2013
•
Reminder of project phases:
– Phase 1 includes the CRR and Credit changes to implement path-specific adders
• Where each CRR (bid or owned) carries a path credit adder based on historical DAM and
CRR clearing prices
– Phase 2 deferred invoicing in 2015
•
ERCOT plans to deliver Phase 1 in two deliveries across 2013 and 2014
– Phase 1a includes path-specific adders in CRR and Credit calculations
– Phase 1b: FCE Detail Reports
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•
•
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FCEOBL Detail Report (Protocol Sections 16.11.4.7)
FCEOPT Detail Report (Protocol Sections 16.11.4.7)
FCEFGR Detail Report (Protocol Sections 16.11.4.7, No FGRs active)
Portion of PWA functionality;
– Specific historic DAM settled prices for source – sink pairings can be excluded from
the calculation if deemed no longer relevant following TAC review and ERCOT Board
approval
• Any functionality deferred from Phase 1A (excluding Phase 2 functionality) due to system /
timeline limitations
CMWG
August 2013
NPRR484/554 Project Update
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First Market Call was July 31, 2013
– http://www.ercot.com/calendar/2013/07/20130731-NPRR484
Market participant training for NPRR484/544 will be available on the following
dates
– ERCOT is requesting that all Market Participants attend one of the sessions
Friday, September 13, 2013
10am – 1pm
Wednesday, September 25, 2013 (CWG
meeting in AM)
1pm – 4pm
Tuesday, October 8, 2013
10am – 1pm
CMWG
August 2013
• QUESTIONS?
CMWG
August 2013