Risk Management
Risk is the product of
– Probability that something will go wrong
And
– Severity of its consequences
How to reduce risk?
– Reduce probability that something will go
wrong
– Reduce severity of consequences
Risk Management
Failure mode and effects analysis
– FMEA involves reviewing as many components,
assemblies, and subsystems as possible to identify
failure modes, and their causes and effects. For each
component, the failure modes and their resulting
effects on the rest of the system are recorded in a
specific FMEA worksheet. From Wiki
Risks are Everywhere
 Think of some task you like to get done today
– Does it have a clear, specific, and desired outcome?
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Exercise for an hour
Get a bearing for the mini project
Get some lab report done
Endure this class
Endure this class without screaming (desired outcome)
 Think of an overseas travel
 Think of your capstone project
– What are the desired outcomes?
Technical Risk Management
TRM
TRM 4-step Methodology
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Risk Identification
Risk Assessment
Risk Mitigation
Risk Monitoring
Risk Identification
Risk Identification is best done as a group
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Identify the desired outcomes
Use brainstorming methods to identify risks
Only include meaningful risks
Continue until no more risks are identified
Keep track of risks as a part of the project plan
Risk Assessment
Risk Assessment
– What are the odds of the risk event occurring
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Rare
Unlikely
Possible
Likely
Frequent
Risk Assessment
Risk Assessment
– What are the consequences of the risk event
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Catastrophic
Severe
Marginal (not severe but significant enough)
Negligible
– In design projects, the consequences are usually in
terms of time, budget, and product meeting PDS
targets.
Risk Scoring Matrix
Frequent
Likely
Possible
Unlikely
Rare
Catastrophic
E
E
H
H
M
Severe
E
H
H
M
L
Marginal
H
M
M
L
L
Negligible
M
L
L
L
L
Risk Assessment
Levels of Risk
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Extreme – Do not accept level of risk
High – Do not accept level of risk
Medium – Mitigate if resources allow
Low - Accept
Risk Mitigation Plan
Reducing the probability of failure
More knowledge  Less Risk
– More accurate assessment
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Research + Analysis
Simulation
Experimentation
Published studies, statistical data
– Design changes
Risk Mitigation Plan
Reducing consequences of events
– More accurate assessment of consequences
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Research + Analysis
Simulation
Experimentation
Published studies
– Design Changes
Example
Assessment:
• Bolt failure for a fuel tank is initially a probable
event and its consequences are catastrophic.
Mitigation
• Detailed analysis shows it is extremely unlikely.
• Further investigation shows consequences are not
as severe as initially perceived.
OR
• Select higher strength or larger bolts
• Add features to contain damage in case of failure
Example
Risk
– Magnets stuck to the disk may fly off
• Probability: High
• Consequences: Severe injury or death
– Risk Assessment: Extreme
Example
– Mitigation (Reducing odds of the event)
• More accurate assessment of forces and probability
of magnets flying off at maximum 1000 rpm
– Conclusions: Very unlikely
• Design Changes
– Add screws or other retaining parts
– Use epoxy
– Add speed sensors and automatic cut off
Example
– Mitigation (Reducing consequences)
• More accurate assessment of consequences
– Remains catastrophic
• Reducing consequences of the event
– Add an enclosure
– Operate remotely