Study Results
April 16, 2015
W
E
S
T
E
R
N
E
L
E
C
T
R
I
C
I
T
Y
C
O
O
R
D
I
N
A
T
I
N
G
C
O
U
N
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2
PC02 Increased Load
• The purpose of the Increased-load sensitivity case
is to continue to attempt to model and plan for a
wide variety of futures.
– 10% increase in load WECC wide
• This case is intended to provide the other
bookend on the 2024 Common Case.
– What are the utilization/congestion impacts
– What is the resulting planning reserve margins
– How does the system react to increase loads
W
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T
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N
E
L
E
C
T
R
I
C
I
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Y
C
O
O
R
D
I
N
A
T
I
N
G
C
O
U
N
C
I
L
1
167
333
499
665
831
997
1163
1329
1495
1661
1827
1993
2159
2325
2491
2657
2823
2989
3155
3321
3487
3653
3819
3985
4151
4317
4483
4649
4815
4981
5147
5313
5479
5645
5811
5977
6143
6309
6475
6641
6807
6973
7139
7305
7471
7637
7803
7969
8135
8301
8467
8633
3
10% Increase in load
250000
W
WECC Wide Load
200000
150000
100000
50000
Common Case
E
S
T
E
R
N
E
L
E
C
T
R
I
C
I
T
Y
C
PC02 High Load
0
O
O
R
D
I
N
A
T
I
N
G
C
O
U
N
C
I
L
1
161
321
481
641
801
961
1121
1281
1441
1601
1761
1921
2081
2241
2401
2561
2721
2881
3041
3201
3361
3521
3681
3841
4001
4161
4321
4481
4641
4801
4961
5121
5281
5441
5601
5761
5921
6081
6241
6401
6561
6721
6881
7041
7201
7361
7521
7681
7841
8001
8161
8321
8481
8641
4
10% Increase in load
12000
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
CIPB CC
W
E
S
T
E
R
N
E
L
E
C
T
R
I
C
I
T
Y
CIPB High Load
0
C
O
O
R
D
I
N
A
T
I
N
G
C
O
U
N
C
I
L
5
Generation Change
Annual Generation by Category (MWh)
2024 PC1 15-01-19
2024 PC2 High Load
Conventional Hydro
Energy Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
IC
Other
DG/DR/EE - Incremental
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
0
W
E
S
T
E
R
50,000
N
E
L
E
100,000
C
T
R
I
C
150,000
I
T
Y
200,000
C
O
O
R
250,000
D
I
N
A
300,000
T
I
N
G
350,000
C
O
U
400,000
N
C
I
L
6
Generation Change
Annual Energy Change (GWh) - 2024 PC1 15-01-19 vs 2024 PC2 High Load
30,000
25,000
20,000
Coal
Gas
15,000
Hydro
Nuclear
Solar
10,000
Wind
Other Renewable
Other Thermal
5,000
0
-5,000
AB
W
E
S
AZ
T
E
R
BC
CA
N
E
CO
L
E
ID
C
T
MT
R
I
MX
C
I
T
NE
NM
Y
C
NV
O
O
OR
R
D
SD
I
N
TX
A
T
UT
I
N
WA
G
WY
C
O
U
N
C
I
L
7
Production Cost and CO2
Category
Conventional Hydro
Energy Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
IC
Other
2024 PC1 15-01-19
238,660,400
3,684,929
231,197,415
3,014,011
56,167,023
274,985,932
55,245,011
803,017
3,365,280
2024 PC2 High Load
238,659,785
3,844,299
241,930,672
4,116,708
56,318,436
336,829,516
81,435,478
1,957,339
3,364,122
17,838,661
19,528,187
31,944,680
4,360,025
35,866,283
73,705,852
1,050,366,706
183
1,489,557
(16,839)
(73)
(66,660)
(50,956)
102,688,549
22,399
1,050
17,838,845
21,017,745
31,927,841
4,359,951
35,799,623
73,654,896
1,153,055,255
0.097764
27,026
1,267
CO2 Amount (MMetrTn)
Dump Energy (MWh)
368
433,485
420
552,065
52
118,580
Pumping (PL+PS) (MWh)
15,528,457
15,744,119
215,662
DG/DR/EE - Incremental
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
== Total ==
Cost (M$)
CO2 Cost (M$)
Difference
(616)
159,370
10,733,257
1,102,696
151,413
61,843,585
26,190,467
1,154,322
(1,158)
4,627
217
8
Planning Reserve Margins
Common Case
AZ-NM-NV
Planning Reserve %
Peak Load
Gen Requirement (Peak Load + Reserves)
Gen Capacity Available at time of Peak in Dataset
Initial Gap
Gap Adjustment (Joint Ownership Plants)
Gap Adjustment (Region-Region Transfers)
Resulting PRM
Increased Load Case
Planning Reserve %
Peak Load
Gen Requirement (Peak Load + Reserves)
Gen Capacity Available at time of Peak in Dataset
Initial Gap
Gap Adjustment (Joint Ownership Plants)
Gap Adjustment (Region-Region Transfers)
Resulting PRM
13.6%
34,652
39,365
44,045
-4,681
4,189
491
13.6%
Basin
British
Columbia
Alberta
13.7%
15,554
17,685
18,889
-1,204
1,194
10
13.7%
12.6%
14,340
16,147
15,719
428
0
-428
12.6%
CA-North
12.6%
9,034
10,172
15,479
-5,307
0
428
66.6%
CA-South
15.0%
29,397
33,807
33,661
146
0
0
14.5%
NWPP
15.2%
43,067
49,613
40,278
9,335
-5,777
-3,417
14.9%
RMPA
17.5%
28,053
32,962
35,879
-2,917
0
2,917
17.5%
14.5%
13,465
15,417
15,810
-393
394
-1
14.5%
AZ-NMBritish
NV
Basin
Alberta Columbia CA-North CA-South NWPP
RMPA
13.6%
13.7%
12.6%
12.6%
15.0%
15.2%
17.5%
14.5%
38,117 17,109 15,774
9,937 32,337 47,374 30,858 14,812
43,301 19,453 17,762 11,190 37,187 54,575 36,259 16,959
44,045 18,889 15,719 15,479 33,661 40,278 35,879 15,810
-744
564
2,043
-4,290
3,526 14,297
380
1,149
4,189
1,194
0
0
0
-5,777
0
394
491
10
-428
428
0
-3,417
2,917
-1
3.3%
3.4%
2.4%
51.5%
4.1%
4.4%
6.8%
4.1%
Unserved Load-AESO 241 MWh
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9
P01 Alberta-British Columbia
Power Flow (MW)
No Aggregation, High Load, 2 /6/20 15 2:41:52 PM
1000
800
600
Power Flow (MW)
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1000
-1200
0
W
E
S
T
E
R
1000
N
E
L
2000
E
C
T
3000
R
I
C
I
4000
T
Y
5000
Hour
C
O
O
6000
R
D
I
N
7000
A
T
I
8000
N
G
9000
C
O
U
N
C
I
L
10
Congested Paths
Congestion
Cost (K$)
Congestion
Hours (Hrs)
723,056
543
3,851
17
604
29
P18 Montana-Idaho
1,932
68
P26 Northern-Southern California
8,913
435
239
130
Interface_Name
P01 Alberta-British Columbia
P03 Northwest-British Columbia
P15 Midway-LosBanos
P45 SDG&E-CFE
W
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S
T
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N
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C
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Y
C
O
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A
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C
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-1000
-4000
W
1
177
353
529
705
881
1057
1233
1409
1585
1761
1937
2113
2289
2465
2641
2817
2993
3169
3345
3521
3697
3873
4049
4225
4401
4577
4753
4929
5105
5281
5457
5633
5809
5985
6161
6337
6513
6689
6865
7041
7217
7393
7569
7745
7921
8097
8273
8449
8625
1
167
333
499
665
831
997
1163
1329
1495
1661
1827
1993
2159
2325
2491
2657
2823
2989
3155
3321
3487
3653
3819
3985
4151
4317
4483
4649
4815
4981
5147
5313
5479
5645
5811
5977
6143
6309
6475
6641
6807
6973
7139
7305
7471
7637
7803
7969
8135
8301
8467
8633
11
Path Flows
1500
1000
P01 Alberta-British Columbia
500
0
-500
-1000
High Load
3000
E
S
T
E
R
N
E
L
E
C
T
R
I
C
I
T
Y
Common Case
-1500
4000
P03 Northwest-British Columbia
2000
1000
0
-2000
-3000
High Load
Common Case
C
O
O
R
D
I
N
A
T
I
N
G
C
O
U
N
C
I
L
-200
W
E
S
1
177
353
529
705
881
1057
1233
1409
1585
1761
1937
2113
2289
2465
2641
2817
2993
3169
3345
3521
3697
3873
4049
4225
4401
4577
4753
4929
5105
5281
5457
5633
5809
5985
6161
6337
6513
6689
6865
7041
7217
7393
7569
7745
7921
8097
8273
8449
8625
-1000
1
177
353
529
705
881
1057
1233
1409
1585
1761
1937
2113
2289
2465
2641
2817
2993
3169
3345
3521
3697
3873
4049
4225
4401
4577
4753
4929
5105
5281
5457
5633
5809
5985
6161
6337
6513
6689
6865
7041
7217
7393
7569
7745
7921
8097
8273
8449
8625
12
Path Flows
5000
4000
P26 Northern-Southern California
3000
2000
1000
0
-2000
-3000
-4000
High Load
600
-800
T
E
R
N
E
L
E
C
T
R
I
C
I
T
Common Case
P45 SDG&E-CFE
400
200
0
-400
-600
High Load
Y
C
Common Case
-1000
O
O
R
D
I
N
A
T
I
N
G
C
O
U
N
C
I
L
13
Observations
Increasing load by 10% across the Western
Interconnection has the following effects:
• Gas- and coal-fired generation primarily
serve the increased demand
• +20% of CO2 cost and production cost
across the Western Interconnection
• Minor increase in congestion in the
Northern and Western regions of the
Western Interconnection
W
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N
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L
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C
T
R
I
C
I
T
Y
C
O
O
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D
I
N
A
T
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N
G
C
O
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N
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14
Questions
W
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N
E
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E
C
T
R
I
C
I
T
Y
C
O
O
R
D
I
N
A
T
I
N
G
C
O
U
N
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