PC30 BLM High Priority RE
SWG – 10/26/15
WECC Staff
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Overview
• Study Description
– Scope and assumptions
– Background
– Study constants
• Study Results
– Details
• Generation
• Paths
– Observations
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Study Description
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Scope - PC30 BLM Study
• Study Requestor: Bureau of Land Management
• Key Questions:
– How does the system respond to the added generation?
– How does the energy “injection” impact path utilization
throughout the region and on the interties?
• Changes from 2024CC:
– Increased Solar generation throughout California and Nevada
by approximately 2800 MW
• Utility-scale single-axis tracking PV and CSP (zero storage) tech types
were used in this study
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Background
• 2022 BLM Study
• Noted unrealistic amount of renewable development
• Model had difficulty solving
• PC30  More realistic renewable development
• NREL compiled locations and capacities with greatest realworld potential for renewable development
• Addition of nine solar generators
• Spread across Southern California and Nevada
• Approximately 2800 MW
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Study Constants
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Transmission
Load
Path Ratings
Constraints
Flexibility Reserves
Resource Adequacy
System Stability
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Results
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Annual Generation Change
Annual Generation by Category (MWh)
2024 PC1 v1.5
2024 PC30 BLM Study
Conventional Hydro
Energy Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
IC
Other
DG/DR/EE - Incremental
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
0
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N
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50,000
E
C
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I
100,000
C
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Y
150,000
C
O
O
R
200,000
D
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N
A
250,000
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N
G
300,000
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N
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Generation Change & Production Cost
Annual Generation by Category (MWh)
Category
Conventional Hydro
Energy Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
IC
Other
DG/DR/EE - Incremental
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
2024 PC1 v1.5
238,955,786
3,592,412
227,755,474
2,637,910
56,254,786
278,957,656
51,794,128
818,909
3,365,280
17,916,707
19,581,287
31,937,139
4,360,054
38,182,163
74,232,546
2024 PC30 BLM Study
238,955,370
3,618,330
226,004,910
2,635,228
56,253,181
273,299,559
51,286,717
796,032
3,365,280
17,914,919
19,477,895
31,936,284
4,359,685
44,752,335
74,232,268
1,050,342,237
1,048,887,994
(1,454,242)
22,843
1,730
363
357,799
15,426,008
5,364,720
22,559
1,695
359
486,247
15,455,487
5,364,720
(284)
(34)
(4)
128,448
29,479
0
== Total ==
Cost (M$)
CO2 Cost (M$)
CO2 Amount (MMetrTn)
Dump Energy (MWh)
Pumping (PL+PS) (MWh)
Exports (MWh)
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Difference
(416)
25,918
(1,750,564)
(2,681)
(1,606)
(5,658,097)
(507,411)
(22,877)
0
(1,787)
(103,392)
(855)
(369)
6,570,172
(278)
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Annual Generation Change
Annual Energy Difference (MWh): 2024 PC1 v1.5 vs 2024 PC30 BLM Study
Conventional Hydro
Energy Storage
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Combined Cycle
Combustion Turbine
IC
Other
DG/DR/EE - Incremental
Biomass RPS
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Solar
Wind
(8,000)
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N
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(6,000)
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(4,000)
C
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(2,000)
Y
C
0
O
O
2,000
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N
4,000
A
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6,000
N
G
8,000
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Generation Change By State
Annual Gen Change (GWh) 2024 PC1 v1.5 vs 2024 PC30 BLM Study
6,000
Conventional Hydro
5,000
Energy Storage
Steam - Coal
4,000
Steam - Other
3,000
Nuclear
IGS assigned to UT
Combined Cycle
2,000
Combustion Turbine
IC
1,000
Other
Biomass RPS
0
DG/DR/EE - Incremental
Geothermal
-1,000
Small Hydro RPS
-2,000
Solar
Wind
-3,000
AB
W
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BC
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N
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ID
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MX
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NE
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NM
Y
NV
C
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OR
O
SD
R
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TX
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UT
A
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WY
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Generation Change by Subregion
Change (GWh) by Subregion - 2024 PC1 v1.5 vs. 2024 PC30 BLM Study
-4,000
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
Alberta
Conventional Hydro
Energy Storage
British Columbia
Steam - Coal
Steam - Other
Nuclear
Basin
Combined Cycle
IGS assigned
to CA
Combustion Turbine
IC
California
Other
Biomass RPS
DG/DR/EE - Incremental
Desert Southwest
Geothermal
Small Hydro RPS
Northwest
Solar
Wind
Rocky Mountain
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Generation by Category
Annual Generation Breakdown By Category - 2024 PC30 BLM Study
Combustion Turbine
4.9%
IC
Other
0.1%
0.3%
Combined Cycle
26.1%
DG/DR/EE - Incremental
1.7%
Biomass RPS
1.9%
Geothermal
3.0%
Small Hydro RPS
0.4%
Solar
4.3%
Nuclear
5.4%
Steam - Other
0.3%
Wind
7.1%
Steam - Coal
21.5%
Conventional Hydro
22.8%
Energy Storage
0.3%
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WECC Paths
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Top 15 Heavily Utilized in PC30
Most Heavily Utilized Paths - PC30 BLM
U75
U90
U99
70%
60%
Percent of Hours
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
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Comparison of Net Annual Flow – Top 15 U90
Net Annual Flow (GWh) - PC1_1_5 vs PC30
PC1_1_5
PC30
P60 Inyo-Control 115 kV Tie
P52 Silver Peak-Control 55 kV
P45 SDG&E-CFE
P83 Montana Alberta Tie Line
xy WA-BC East
P26 Northern-Southern California
P15 Midway-LosBanos
P18 Montana-Idaho
P48 Northern New Mexico (NM2)
P76 Alturas Project
P36 TOT 3
P66 COI
P80 Montana Southeast
P28 Intermountain-Mona 345 kV
P28 Intermountain-Mona 345 kV
-4,000
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-2,000
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2,000
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4,000
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6,000
O
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8,000
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10,000
A
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12,000
N
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14,000
C
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16,000
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Changes in Path Utilization
• Overall Changes:
•
•
•
•
•
•
P76
P60
P15
↓P60: ~5%
↓P52: ~3.5%
↑P26: ~1%
↑P45: ~4%
↓P76: ~1%
↑P15: ~4%
P52
P26
P45
*paths shown are approximations
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Path Flows
WECC P60 Inyo-Control 115 kV Tie
E -> W
100
Megawatts
50
0
-50
-100
2024CC-V1.5
2024-PC30-BLM
E -> W
2012
2024 Max
2024 Min
WECC P52 Silver Peak-Control 55 kV
20
Megawatts
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
2024CC-V1.5
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2024-PC30-BLM
R
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2012
C
O
O
2024 Max
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N
A
2024 Min
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Path Flows
WECC P26 Northern-Southern California
Megawatts
N -> S
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
-1000
-2000
-3000
-4000
2024CC-V1.5
2024-PC30-BLM
2012
2024 Max
2024 Min
WECC P45 SDG&E-CFE
N -> S
Megawatts
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
2024CC-V1.5
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N
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C
T
2024-PC30
R
I
C
I
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Y
2012
C
O
2024 Max
O
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D
I
N
2024 Min
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N
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Path Flows
WECC P76 Alturas Project
S -> N
Megawatts
400
200
0
-200
-400
2024CC-V1.5
2024-PC30
2012
2024 Max
2024 Min
Series3
WECC P15 Midway-LosBanos
S -> N
Megawatts
6000
4000
2000
0
-2000
-4000
2024CC-V1.5
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N
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C
2024-PC30
T
R
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C
I
2012
T
Y
C
2024 Max
O
O
R
D
2024 Min
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Series3
N
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Observations
• Change in Generation:
• System accepts nearly all added generation without adverse
effect (minimal dump energy on one generator)
• Increase in solar offset by decrease in coal, combined cycle,
and combustion turbine
• Change in Production Cost
• Overall decrease in production cost
• Decrease in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions
• No change in exports noted
• Change in Transmission Utilization
• Overall incremental improvement in transmission utilization
• No unserved load noted
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Western Electricity Coordinating Council
Colby Johnson
Associate Engineer
cjohnson@wecc.biz
801-819-7662
Contact
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