2016/03/18
INVENTORY OF DAIRY INDUSTRY INFORMATION
As on 2014.09.21
DAIRY DIGITS
Function / purpose
Show market indicators that influence business decisions in the short term.
Primary target market
Milk producers and milk processors of South Africa and other interested parties.
Media
The Dairy Mail.
Milk SA Website.
Direct mail to Milk SA role-players.
Table 1: Key market indicators
Title of the variable
1
Milk purchased
Mil.L.
2
Imports
000 Ton
Specification
Source of the information
Annual for 2 previous
years*
Milk SA
Most recent month*
Cumulative for
current year to most
recent month*
Previous year*
Cumulative for
current year to most
recent month*
Milk SA
SARS as supplied by SAMPRO
Formula or method applied (if applicable)
Milk SA levy returns. Previous year finalised in
March of current year.
See Annexure A for policy.
Based on estimate of milk buyers data according
to Milk SA protocol.
See Annexure A for policy.
Total of estimated milk production for current
year.
See Annexure A for policy.
Total imports of tariff codes 0401 -0406
2016/03/18
3
4
5
6
Exports
000 Ton
Previous year*
SARS as supplied by SAMPRO
PPI Raw milk price index
PPI Dairy product price
index
Farm requisite price index
Latest month*
Latest month*
Stats SA, supplied via SAMPRO
Stats SA
Latest month*
DAFF publication
Total exports of tariff codes 0401 - 0406
Current year*
* Also indicating values of the same period in the previous year
Figure 1 to Figure 4 Line graphs
Figure 1
International dairy
product prices (free on
board)
Rand/ton
Figure 2
Monthly unprocessed
milk purchase trend
Jan -07 to latest
month
SMP
Butter
Cheddar
FMP
Previous four years +
current year
Figure 3
Monthly cumulative net
imports, milk equivalent,
Previous four years +
current year
SARS supplied by SAMPRO
Jan 2012 – latest
PPI raw milk Stats SA as supplied to
SAMPRO
PPI Dairy products Stats SA
CPI Stats SA
Figure 4
PPI of unprocessed
milk and dairy
products and CPI of
retail milk, eggs and
cheese
USDA; SA Reserve Bank
Average of USDA High and low values per
month.
Rand/$ based on Reserve Bank middle rate if
available, if not average of daily values as quoted
by Grain SA.
Milk SA
Milk SA levy returns. Previous year finalised in
March of current year.
Based on estimate of milk buyers data according
to Milk SA protocol
Converted to standard milk equivalent values (see
Table A below)
Table A: Milk equivalent factors
0401
0402.10
Milk & Cream
Skimmed Milk Powder
Kg to Kg
1,0
10,0
Litres to Kg
1,031
n/a
Base 2012 = 100.
CPI converted from base Jan 2012 = 100 to base
2012 = 100.
2016/03/18
0402.21
0402.29
0406
0403.10
Full cream Milk Powder
Condensed Milk
Cheese
Yoghurt, Maas and other Fermented products
8,5
2,2
10,0
1,0
n/a
n/a
n/a
n/a
2016/03/18
LACTO DATA
Function / purpose
Show long term international and South African trends in respect of structure and performance of the dairy industry.
Target market
Milk producers and milk processors of South Africa; Government institutions, academic and other research institutions.
Media
The Dairy Mail.
Milk SA Website.
Direct mail to Milk SA role-players.
Headings will be on top of figures and tables.
Title of the variable
Specification
Figure 1
International economic growth and expected
growth
Figure 2
FAO food price indices of internationally
traded product groups
Line graph
4 past & 1 future year
World
Advanced economies
Developing economies
South Africa
Line graph
Monthly prices for four years up to
latest month
Indices for:
All Food product groups
Meat
Dairy
Cereals
Source of the
information
Formula or method applied
(if applicable)
IMF
Stats SA
FAO
Index 2002 – 2004 = 100
2016/03/18
Oilseeds
Figure 3
Global milk production per species
Bar chart
Most recent four years
Cow, buffalo, goat and other milk
IDF World Dairy
Situation
Table 1
Milk production growth: 2013 compared to
2012,selected countries
CNIEL
Figure 4
Cow’s milk production per region
Figure 5
Word population and per capita consumption
of dairy products
% Growth most recent year
compared to previous year.
Australia
European Union
New Zealand
United States
Bar chart
Cow’s milk production for
following regions
Asia
EU-27
North and Central America
South America
Europe (Non-EU)
Africa
Oceania
Line + bar chart
2005, 2008 – most recent year
Population (million)
Per capita consumption (kg)
Figure 6
Annual increase in dairy demand
Bar chart
Million tonnes per year
1997 –latest year
IDF World Dairy
Situation
IDF World Dairy
Situation
IFCN
 Please establish whether
"Per capita consumption
(kg)" milk equivalent is.
 In the text, the heading
"Milk processing" should
read "Production of dairy
products"; and "Dairy
consumption" should read
"Dairy products
consumption".
2016/03/18
Figure 7
Regional distribution of total demand for
dairy products
Pie chart
% distribution of dairy demand per
region:
Asia
Europe
North America
Central America
South America
Oceania
Africa
IDF World Dairy
Situation
Figure 8
Share of key exporting countries in total
trade in dairy products
IDF World Dairy
Situation
Table 2
Major dairy companies
Horisontal bar chart
% share per country1:
New Zealand
EU
USA
Australia
Belarus
Argentina
20 largest international dairy
companies indicating:
Market share (%)
Milk intake Mil. ton
Dairy turnover US$ billion
Most recent year, top 10 per
category.
Dairy farm numbers (Mil. cows)
Average farm size (Cows per farm)
Annual change in average farm size
(Cows per farm).
IFCN
Separate the three categories
clearly.
Map developed by IFCN showing
milk production cost per region
US$/ 100 kg energy corrected milk
Latest year
IFCN
Attend to colours.
Delete "World milk price".
Table 3
Figure 9
1
selected countries:
 No of dairy farm units
 Average herd size
 Annual change in average herd size
Estiomated milk production cost (US$/100
kg) per average farm in participating
countries
As countries’ share changes the specified countries may change.
Is this representing milk
equivalent?
IFCN
2016/03/18
Figure
10
Estimated cost of milk production per farm
for average farms in IFCN analysis
Figure
11
Estimated producer milk prices in various
regions
Bar chart
Cost (US$/ 100 kg energy
corrected milk)
Cost according to P+L account
less non-milk returns
Opportunity cost
Quota cost
Map developed by IFCN
Milk price (US$/ 100 kg energy
corrected milk)
IFCN
Attend to colours.
"Cost P&L" should be spelled
out.
"South Afriocan dairy
industry The primary sector"
must read "The South African
Primary Dairy Sector".
January 2006 – most recent month
December 1997 and most recent
month
% Distribution of milk production
Number of cows in milk per province
(most recent survey)
Map showing milk density in
Litres/km2
Table 4
Table 5
Number of milk producers per province
Milk production per province and cows in
milk per producer, specific years
Figure
12
Milk production density
Figure
13
Size distribution of dairy herds
Frequency chart
Figure
14
Cow density per district
Cows/km2
Figure
15
Distribution of herds based on daily
production per cow in herd
Bar chart
% of herds per production class
Figure
16
Monthly raw milk purchase trend
Previous four years + current year
MPO
MPO Statutory
survey +
estimate
MPO Statutory
survey +
estimate
MPO Statutory
survey +
estimate
MPO Statutory
survey +
estimate
MPO Statutory
survey +
estimate
Milk SA
Attend to light grey colour
that show white when printed.
Milk SA levy returns.
Previous year finalised in
2016/03/18
Figure
17
Annual milk purchases
Bar chart
Annual for split years from 2004/05
to 2005/06
Calendar years from 2007 to most
recent year
MPO; MilkSA;
SAMO,
SAMPRO
March of current year.
Based on estimate of milk
buyers data according to Milk
SA protocol
Historic data to 2005 from
industry, 2006 + Milk SA
 The quote that preceed "The
secondary sector" should be
amended in accordance
with a previous decision.
 The heading "The
Secondary sector" should
read "The South African
Secondary Dairy Sector"
Table 6
Number of PD’s and milk buyers per
province as registered with Milk SA
Figure
18
Composition of the South African liquid
products market
Figure
19
Composition of the South African
concentrated products market
Most recent month
Number of PD’s
Number of milk buyers
Pie chart
% distribution into:
Pasteurised milk
UHT + steri milk
Flavoured milk
Maas + buttermilk
Yoghurt
Most recent information
Pie chart
% distribution into:
Hard + semi-hard cheese
Milk powder
Butter
Whey powder
Milk SA
Industry estimate
based on BMI,
as supplied by
SAMPRO
 Table 6 should be amended
to be in the same fashion as
table 4.
 Milk equivalent basis.
 If figure 18 cannot be
updated in 2015, it will
be left out.
Industry estimate If figure 18 cannot be updated
based on BMI, in 2015, it will be left out.
as supplied by
SAMPRO
2016/03/18
Figure
20
Dairy product imports and exports,
Figure
21
Dairy product imports and exports, milkequivalent basis
Figure
22
Figure
23
Buttermilk powder
Condensed milk
Other cheese
Bar chart
Mass base (1 000 tonnes) latest 10
years
Import, export, net import per year
Bar chart
Milk equivalent basis (Mil. L.)
Latest 10 years
SARS supplied
by SAMPRO
SARS supplied
by SAMPRO
Percentage composition of imports
Pie chart
Mass base
% distribution of imports between:
Cheese
Milk powder
Butter
Whey powder
Buttermilk & yoghurt
Milk & cream
SARS supplied
by SAMPRO
Percentage composition of exports
Pie chart
Mass base
% distribution of exports between:
Cheese
Milk powder
Butter
Whey powder
Buttermilk & yoghurt
Milk & cream
SARS supplied
by SAMPRO
 Milk equivalent values as
standardised (See table)
 Imports of each of the six
customs categories to be
shown as percentage of the
exports, since 2000.
 Figure 24 should move
somewhere before table 2.
2016/03/18
Figure
24
International FOB dairy product prices
Jan -07 to latest month
SMP
Butter
Cheddar
FMP
USDA; SA
Reserve Bank
Table 7
International calculated standardised raw
milk producer prices
Latest available month plus same
month for three previous years
LTO, Nederland,
GDF, Uruguay
Dairy Industry
Jan 2012 – latest
PPI raw milk
Stats SA as
supplied to
SAMPRO
PPI Dairy
products Stats
SA
CPI Stats SA
Figure
25
PPI indices of raw milk and dairy
products and CPI index of retail milk,
eggs and cheese
 Table 7 should move
somewhere before figure
11.
 Figure 25 should move to
"The South African Primary
Dairy Sector".
Average of USDA High and
low values per month.
Rand/$ based on Reserve
Bank middle rate if available,
if not average of daily values
as quoted by Grain SA.
Converted to Rand/litre with
Reserve Bank monthly
middle rates
South Africa: MPO
Base 2012 = 100.
CPI converted from base Jan
2012 = 100 to base 2012 =
100.
 Add figure to show
unprocessed milk and
other primary agricultural
products (PPI).
 Add figure to show milk
and other dairy products
(PPI).
 Add figure to show dairy
products with other
selected food products.
Table 8
Farm requisite price indices
Base 2005 = 100
DAFF data
CAGR = (Sn/S0)^(n-1) - 1
2016/03/18
Machinery and implements
Material for fixed improvements
Intermediate goods and services
All farming requisites
Annual for latest four years
Quarterly for 18 quarters to latest
available data
Calculated annual growth rate
(CAGR) for annual and quarterly
data
Table 9
Year-on-year change in demand and prices
of dairy products
Table xx
Ander Nielsen-tabel. Ek weet nie waarna
Alwyn verwys het nie.
Latest available 12 months compared
to same period previous year.
Change in demand quantity (%)
Change in retail prices (%)
AC Nielsen as
supplied by
SAMPRO
AC Nielsen as
supplied by
SAMPRO
DAIRY INDUSTRY REVIEW
Only in English.
Logical ordening of sections under South Africa & International
Headings will be on top of figures and tables.
Function / purpose
Show long term trends of market indicators as published in Dairy Digits as well as long term trends of international market indicators and the South African consumer
market, which serve a market signals for medium to long term business decisions.
Primary target market
Milk producers and milk processors of South Africa; institutions in the public sector.
2016/03/18
Media
Milk SA Website.
Direct mail to Milk SA role-players.
Title of the variable
Specification
Source of the information
Table 1
Commercial milk purchases
Annual values latest five
years.
Monthly values current year
‘Tonnes
Milk SA
Figure 1
Annual milk purchases
Figure 2
Monthly raw milk purchase trend
MPO, SAMPRO Milk Board,
Abstact of Agricultural
statistics
Milk SA
Figure 3
Long-term trend in milk production
Bar chart
2004/05, 2005/06
2006 – latest year
Line graph
Previous four years + current
year
Tonnes
Line graph
Monthly production
12 month moving average
Figure 4
Application of locally produced milk in
concentrated and other products
Table 2
Annual imports
Area chart (%)
Jan – 06 to latest month
% Concentrated
% Other
Latest 6 years
Imports per four digit tariff
code:
0401
0402
0403
Milk SA
Milk SA
SARS data supplied by SAMPRO
Formula or method applied (if
applicable)
Milk SA levy returns. Previous year
finalised in March of current year.
Previous months Milk SA levy
information.
Latest two months Milk SA
estimate.
Based on estimate of milk buyers
data according to Milk SA protocol
Data before 2006 fixed in
workgroup
2006 + Milk SA levy information
Milk SA levy returns. Previous year
finalised in March of current year.
Based on estimate of milk buyers
data according to Milk SA protocol
Milk SA levy returns. Previous year
finalised in March of current year.
Based on estimate of milk buyers
data according to Milk SA protocol
Milk SA levy returns
2016/03/18
0404
0405
0406
Total imports
Figure 5
Annual imports of dairy products
Mass base (tonnes)
Milk equivalent base (Mil.L.)
1995 – latest year
SARS data supplied by
SAMPRO
Converted to standard milk
equivalent values (see Table A
below)
Figure 6
Monthly imports, milk equivalent base
SARS data supplied by
SAMPRO
Converted to standard milk
equivalent values (see Table A
below)
Figure 7
Composition of imports
Mil.L. Milk equivalent
October 1994 to latest month
Monthly value
3-month moving average
value
Stacked bar chart
SARS data supplied by
SAMPRO
Annual mass of imports per
four digit tariff code
0401
0402
0403
0404
0405
0406
A table should be added to show the
net import and export position.
Table 3
Annual exports
Latest 6 years
Exports per four digit tariff
code:
0401
0402
0403
0404
0405
0406
Total exports
Figure 8
Composition of exports
Stacked bar chart
SARS data supplied by SAMPRO
SARS data supplied by
Composition of imports
2016/03/18
SAMPRO
Figure 9
Table 4
Figure 10
Table 5
Monthly cumulative net imports, milk
equivalent,
PPI of unprocessed milk and dairy
products and the CPI of milk,
cheese and eggs.
PPI indices of raw milk and dairy
products and CPI index of retail
milk, eggs and cheese
Monthly international FOB prices
for New Zealand dairy products
Annual mass of exports per
four digit tariff code
0401
0402
0403
0404
0405
0406
Previous four years + current
year
Dec 2012 – latest month
Dairy products PPI
Unprocessed milk PPI
Milk, cheese and eggs, CPI
Line chart
Jan 2012 – latest month
Dairy products PPI
Raw milk PPI
Milk, cheese and eggs, CPI
Monthly data for two years
up to latest month
Price US$/ton for;
Butter
SMP
SARS supplied by SAMPRO
Converted to standard milk
equivalent values (see Table A
below)
PPI unprocessed milk Stats
SA as supplied to SAMPRO
PPI Dairy products Stats SA
CPI Stats SA
PPI raw milk Stats SA as
supplied to SAMPRO
PPI Dairy products Stats SA
CPI Stats SA
Base 2012 = 100.
CPI converted from base Jan 2012 =
100 to base 2012 = 100.
USDA
SA Reserve Bank
Grain SA
Base 2012 = 100.
CPI converted from base Jan 2012 =
100 to base 2012 = 100.
 Add figure to show unprocessed
milk and other primary
agricultural products (PPI).
 Add figure to show milk and
other dairy products (PPI).
 Add figure to show dairy
products with other selected food
products
Average of USDA High and low
values per month.
Rand/$ based on Reserve Bank
middle rate if available, if not
average of daily values as quoted by
2016/03/18
Cheddar
Exchange rate SA cent per
US$
Price Rand per ton for:
Butter
SMP
Cheddar
Line chart
Jan -07 to latest month
SMP
Butter
Cheddar
FMP
Grain SA.
Move Table 5 to the back.
Figure 11
International dairy product prices (free
on board)
Rand/ton
USDA; SA Reserve Bank
Table 6
Price indices of farm requisites
Base 2005 = 100
Machinery and implements
Material for fixed
improvements
Intermediate goods and
services
All farming requisites
Annual for latest four years
Quarterly for 18 quarters to
latest available data
Calculated annual growth rate
(CAGR) for annual and
quarterly data
DAFF data
Table 7
FOB import and export prices per
tariff heading
Annual average import and
export prices ( R/kg) per
tariff codes:
0401
0402.10
SARS data supplied by
SAMPRO
Average of USDA High and low
values per month.
Rand/$ based on Reserve Bank
middle rate if available, if not
average of daily values as quoted by
Grain SA.
Move figure 11 to the back.
CAGR = (Sn/S0)^(n-1) - 1
2016/03/18
Table xx
Year-on-year change in demand and
prices of dairy products
0402.21
0402.29
0403.10
0403.90
0404
0405
0406.30
0406.40
0406.90
Latest three years
Latest available 12 months
compared to same period
previous year.
Change in demand quantity
(%)
Change in retail prices (%)
Table A: Milk equivalent factors
0401
0402.10
0402.21
0402.29
0406
0403.10
Milk & Cream
Skimmed Milk Powder
Full cream Milk Powder
Condensed Milk
Cheese
Yoghurt, Maas and other Fermented products
1,0
10,0
8,5
2,2
10,0
1,0
AC Nielsen as supplied by
SAMPRO
2016/03/18
POWERPOINT PRESENTATION TO THE MEMBERS OF MILK SOUTH AFRICA
Function / purpose
To inform Milk SA's members about current market signals.
Primary target market
Members of Milk SA.
Media
PowerPoint.
Slide
Title of the variable
1
Industry information
2
Contents
3
International economic growth and expected
growth
4
FAO food price indexes
5
Global milk production
Specification
Source of the information Formula or method
applied (if applicable)
Title slide
International economy
International dairy situation
SA economic situation
SA dairy situation
Bar chart
4 past & 1 future year
World
Advanced economies
Developing economies
South Africa
Line graph
Monthly prices for four years up
to latest month
Indices for: Food
Meat
Dairy
Mixed chart
IMF
Stats SA
Index 2002 – 2004 = 100
FAO
IDF WDS
2016/03/18
6
Milk production growth: 2013 compared to
2012,selected countries
7
Milk production growth: 2014 compared to
2013,selected countries
8
Word population and per capita dairy
consumption
9
Global dairy trade Auction sale price index
10
Monthly international FOB prices for
New Zealand dairy products
11
Monthly international FOB prices for
New Zealand dairy products
Latest six years
Cows’ milk production Mil.
Tonnes (bar)
Annual growth, % line
% Growth most recent year
compared to previous year.
Australia
European Union
New Zealand
United States
% Growth most recent period
compared to previous year.
Australia
European Union
New Zealand
United States
Line + bar chart
2005, 2008 – most recent year
Population (million)
Per capita consumption (kg)
Line Chart
Jan 09 - latest month
Line chart
Monthly data for two years up to
latest month
Price US$/ton for;
Butter
SMP
Cheddar
Jan 07 – latest month
Monthly data for two years up to
latest month
Price US$/ton for;
Butter
CNIEL
CNIEL
IDF World Dairy Situation
gDT index
USDA
USDA
SA Reserve Bank
Grain SA
Monthly average of biweekly figures
Average of USDA High
and low values per month.
.
Average of USDA High
and low values per month.
Rand/$ based on Reserve
Bank middle rate if
2016/03/18
12
European producer prices
13
European price trends
14
International producer price indices
15
SA Economic activity
16
Economic growth
17
Consumer price inflation
SMP
Cheddar
Exchange rate SA cent per US$
Price Rand per ton for:
Butter
SMP
Cheddar
Table Jan -07 – Latest month
Monthly price
12 month moving average price
Prices in Euro/ 100kg
Line chart
Producer price trends, current
year plus previous two years
Prices in Euro/ 100kg
Line chart
Price indices for following
countries:
Argentina
New Zealand
Uruguay
Brazil
USA
ZA
Index (2012 = 100) based on own
currencies
Line chart
Jan 10 – latest month
Leading indicator
Co0incident indicator
Bar chart
Quarterly economic growth (%)
2010 Q1 – latest quarter
Line chart
Jan 07 to latest month
available, if not average of
daily values as quoted by
Grain SA.
LTO, Nederland
Price based on 4,2% fat,
3,9% protein
LTO, Nederland
Price based on 4,2% fat,
3,9% protein
Source:
USA Hoards dairyman
New Zealand LTO
Uruguay Inale,
Argentina CLAL
Brazil CLAL
ZA Stats SA
SA Reserve Bank
Stats SA
Quarterly annualised
growth %
Stats SA
Index rebased to 2000 =
100
2016/03/18
CPI index
Monthly CPI inflation (%)
18
Interest rates
19
Household income and debt
20
Nominal retail sales growth
21
Monthly raw milk purchase trend
22
Line chart
Prime rate
Inflation rate
Real interest rate
Line chart
Household debt % of disposable
income
Per capita disposable income (R
000) 2010 based
Line chart
Jan 08 to recent month
Year on year % growth
Previous four years + current year
Monthly raw milk purchase trend per day per Previous four years + current year
month
Daily milk purchase per month
23
Retail sales and prices, selected products
24
Monthly cumulative net imports, milk
Table
Retail sales % change current 12
months compared to previous 12
months
Rental price % change latest
month compared to same month
year ago
Previous four years + current year
Stats SA
Real rate = (1+nominal
rate)/(1+inflation rate) -1
SA Reserve Bank
Stats SA
Milk SA
Milk SA
Milk SA levy returns.
Previous year finalised in
March of current year.
Based on estimate of milk
buyers data according to
Milk SA protocol
Milk SA levy returns.
Previous year finalised in
March of current year.
Based on estimate of milk
buyers data according to
Milk SA protocol
Nielsen figures supplied to
SAMPRO and Milk SA
SARS supplied by SAMPRO
Converted to standard milk
2016/03/18
equivalent,
25
Annual purchases plus net imports
26
Calculated milk: maize + soybean price ratio
27
PPI indices of raw milk and dairy
products and CPI index of retail milk,
eggs and cheese
equivalent values (see
Table A below)
Mixed chart
Annual purchases (Mil.L.)
Annual net imports (Mil.L. Milk
equivalent)
Annual purchases plus net
imports (Mil.L.)
MPO; MilkSA; SAMO,
SAMPRO
Line chart
Jan 10 to latest
Jan 2012 – latest
Historic data to 2005 from
industry, 2006 + Milk SA
SARS as supplied by
SAMPRO
MPO; MilkSA; SAMO,
SAMPRO
MPO
Grain SA
Maize + soybean = 70%
YM1, 30% Soy, Safex
nearest month prices.
Producer price: MPO
survey
PPI raw milk Stats SA as
supplied to SAMPRO
PPI Dairy products Stats SA
CPI Stats SA
Base 2012 = 100.
CPI converted from base
Jan 2012 = 100 to base
2012 = 100.
2016/03/18
28
PPI indices of raw milk and dairy
products and CPI index of retail milk,
eggs and cheese
29
Thank you
Jan 2001 - latest
PPI raw milk Stats SA as
supplied to SAMPRO
PPI Dairy products Stats SA
CPI Stats SA
End slide
MPO
Table A: Milk equivalent factors
0401
0402.10
0402.21
0402.29
0406
0403.10
Milk & Cream
Skimmed Milk Powder
Full cream Milk Powder
Condensed Milk
Cheese
Yoghurt, Maas and other Fermented products
1,0
10,0
8,5
2,2
10,0
1,0
Base 2000 = 100.
CPI converted from base
Jan 2012 = 100 to base
2012 = 100.
PPI converted to base 2000
= 100.
2016/03/18
Annexure A: Policy for estimating and determining monthly milk purchases