Agenda Item 1
Current situation: Market trends
Beef and veal consumption robust at
around 300,000 tonnes each year
000 tonnes
310
305
300
295
290
285
280
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
Veal production has increased
000 tonnes
4.0
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: DEFRA
Exports of beef and veal have
increased since 2006
Source: GTIS
Imports somewhat level
Source: GTIS
Self-sufficiency in beef and veal
%
88
90
77
80
72
70
79
80
81
2007
2008
2009
84
85
72
67
66
2001
2002
68
68
2003
2004
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2000
2005
2006
2010
2011
2012
Source: DEFRA
Agenda Item 2
Male dairy calves
Live exports at a low level
Head
90,000
80,000
Dutch farmers boycotted
UK calf trade mid 2008
following detection of bTB
70,000
60,000
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source : BCMS
2012 - almost half to Spain
Spain
Ireland
France
Germany
Others
Source : BCMS
Dairy calf registrations since
2006 – male & female
500
411
407
388
400
350
450
435
450
480
471
465
370
335
330
326
371
370
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source2012
: BCMS
Use of sexed semen Apr 2011 – Mar
2012 (DairyCo survey of breeding companies )
2000
1836
1800
1600
1400
No. of
semen
straws
('000)
1200
Conventional
Sexed
1000
800
600
400
265
200
281
31
0
Holstein
Non-Holstein
Destination of male calves (000’s)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Female Registrations
411.1 407.3 434.6 449.7 465.2 471.0 480.0
Male Registrations
326.3 330.1 335.1 370.3 370.3 371.4 398.1
Estimated no. males born *
411.1 407.3 430.3 440.9 451.6 452.9 457.1
Estimated no. disposed on-farm
84.8
77.2
95.2
Live exports
80.7
63.8
51.4
Estimated no. retained in GB
70.6 81.4
1.0
0.7
81.5
59.0
13.3
8.0
245.6 266.3 283.7 369.3 369.6 358.1 390.1
• From 2008 onwards, applying a 1% year on year increase in the number of
heifers born due to the use of sexed semen
Destination of dairy male calves
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
% live exports
50%
% retained in GB
40%
% disposed on farm
30%
20%
10%
0%
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2012 Q4
£ per tonne
2012 Q3
2012 Q2
2012 Q1
2011 Q4
2011 Q3
2011 Q2
2011 Q1
2010 Q4
2010 Q3
2010 Q2
2010 Q1
2009 Q4
2009 Q3
2009 Q2
2009 Q1
2008 Q4
2008 Q3
2008 Q2
2008 Q1
2007 Q4
2007 Q3
2007 Q2
2007 Q1
2006 Q4
2006 Q3
2006 Q2
2006 Q1
Link between feed costs and
registrations evident
000 head
260
130
240
120
220
110
100
200
90
180
80
160
70
60
140
50
120
40
Rearing calf prices volatile
since 2006 – but have moved up
£ per head
160
140
Ho/Fr heifers
120
100
80
60
40
20
Ho/Fr bulls
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
Apr
Jun
Aug
Oct
Dec
Feb
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Source : AHDB/EBLEX
Upwards evolution in finished
cattle prices continues
p per kg dw
410
400
390
380
370
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
290
280
J
F
GB R4L deadweight steer price
2013
M
A
M
J
J
A
2012
S
O
2011
N
D
Source: AHDB/EBLEX
100
2012 Q4
2012 Q3
2012 Q2
2012 Q1
2011 Q4
2011 Q3
2011 Q2
2011 Q1
2010 Q4
2010 Q3
2010 Q2
2010 Q1
2009 Q4
2009 Q3
2009 Q2
2009 Q1
2008 Q4
2008 Q3
2008 Q2
2008 Q1
2007 Q4
2007 Q3
2007 Q2
2007 Q1
2006 Q4
2006 Q3
2006 Q2
2006 Q1
Evolution of compound cereal
prices since 2006
£ per tonne
260
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
Source : DEFRA
Dairy male calf registrations/beef and
veal imports - a stable relationship
000 head/000 tonnes
400
390
380
370
360
350
340
330
320
310
300
290
280
270
260
250
240
230
220
210
200
Calf reg
2007
2008
2009
Imports
2010
2011
2012
Source : BCMS/GTIS
Economic prospects
• Tighter global & domestic
supply will tend to support
beef prices
• Margins possible for better
quality animals
• Highly dependent on input
prices
• Domestic market for veal
still underdeveloped
• What value provenence ?
Financial performance (May-Apr)
Extensive Beef Finishing
Source: AHDB/EBLEX estimates
1400.00
1200.00
1000.00
Noncash costs
800.00
Overheads (£)
Variable costs (£)
600.00
Stock purchases (£)
Output (£)
400.00
200.00
0.00
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Higher prices through 2011 and 2012 filtering through
to improve returns, but still negative margin for many
Intensive Beef Finishing
Source: AHDB/EBLEX estimates
1200
1000
800
Noncash costs
Overheads (£)
600
Variable costs (£)
Stock purchases (£)
Output (£)
400
200
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Agenda Item 3
Health and welfare of dairy calves
Dairy calf health and welfare
• Calf survival a continuing focus
of attention
– Perinatal mortality
– Early stage nutrition
– Control of disease
• Dearth of robust industry data
• Specialist rearing units more
switched on to best practice ?
• Outcome based welfare
measures for dairy cows
Colostrum (volume and quality)
• Too much milk does not cause scour
• Well fed calves develop higher immunity
• 60% calves have inadequate colostral
immunity
• Recommendation for 10% of body weight
in critical first 6hrs
• £14/calf added cost feeding saleable milk
• Reinforcement of strategies/best practice
• Needs agreement on protocol from all
parties
Emerging results from DairyCo
funded CASE studentship
• Perinatal mortality
– Mean 5.4 % (Range 1% to 13.9%)
• Differences in feeding regime for male calves
– Yes:34%, No:66%
• Recorded examples, males given
– increased volume of milk to prepare for sale
– waste milk, often in significant volume
– milk powder, while heifers given fermented whole milk
• Proportion of bull calves disposed of on farm
– 6.3%
Nutrition up to weaning
• A system based on feeding:
– 10% of bodyweight
Little more than
maintenance
• (45 kg calf gets 4.5 litres)
– 10% concentration of powder
• (4.5l @10% - 450 g powder)
• Whereas feeding:
– 2.5 % of bodyweight
• (45 kg calf @15% = 5.5l)
– 5% concentration of powder
• (5.5 l @ 15% = 825 g powder)
Maximum
growth, when
calf is
biologically
most efficient
Disease Risk/Effect on Yield
Calf health & welfare workshop
• Royal Vet College, 23 July 2013
– DairyCo Research Partnership (Health, welfare & nutrition)
• Aim to identify
– best practice guidelines for calf rearing
– gaps to be addressed in current knowledge
• Four themes
– health, welfare, housing and production economics
• Cross sector representation
– Farmers, vets, researchers, legislators
Agenda Item 4
Developments in breeding
Reducing heifer losses
• Average heifers calving down at 28 months
• Attrition rate of heifers during rearing period still
too high
• Higher losses of dairy progeny from heifer calvings
• Management during first lactation
• Targetting better performance
– DairyCo PD+ blueprint
– Benchmarking (e.g. Milkbench+)
– PhD study: Economic analysis of heifer rearing and
breeding selection in UK
Current purebred genetic evaluations
•
•
•
•
•
•
DairyCo provides evaluations for major dairy breeds
Pursuit of fitness traits tends to select for animals
with better conformation
UK genetic ranking encourages use of fitness traits
– Longevity, Fertility, Mastitis, Lameness
Genetic trends in all 4 areas are in a positive
direction
Since 2012, information available on farm’s herd
genetic reports
HUK introduced Body Condition Score indexes
Sire usage for combined fitness
(Note; 2007 saw major change in £PLI)
Current PLI review likely further emphasise fitness traits,
and include a Live weight component
Use of sexed semen
•
DairyCo survey of breeding companies indicate that
sexed semen accounted for 13% of sales in 2011/12
Resulting in approx. 5% skew towards female
progeny
Constraints to greater adoption of sexed semen
•
•
–
–
–
–
Reduced conception rates
Less attractive to block calving systems
Lack of semen availability from elite bulls
Price ?
Cross breeding
•
•
•
Since 2010, DairyCo also evaluates cross-bred
animals
Andy – some words on cross breeding and
impact on calf price?
Dairy systems modeling (Moorepark economic
model)
Make it easier to choose semen
• Industry KT events on-going to educate farmers on
use of the indexes on a pure and cross-breed basis
• DairyCo and Holstein UK both have websites that
allow farmers to select the bulls that suits them
• Genomic selection
Extended lactations
•
•
Industry trend towards increasing lactation length
Modern genotypes can still be yielding significantly
beyond 305 days
Theoretical advantages of 18 (or 24 month) lactations
•
–
–
–
–
Fewer progeny
reduced metabolic stress and increased longevity
insemination costs
reduced number of dry days within the cow's lifetime
Extended lactations
Evidence to date indicates
• Feasible, but yield level and persistency of lactation are key
• Different cows and sire groups react differently to delayed
breeding
• Potential for cows to get too fat, compromising subsequent
lactations
• Economics not sufficiently proven
• Block calving systems more challenging, need 24 month
system
• Further information needed to on interactive effects of
lactation pattern, diet and management before any wider
recommendations
Development of Carcass EBV’s
•
DairyCo/EBLEX funded study to evaluate potential
of combining abattoir data with BCMS data
Alternative approach in absence of beef progeny test
Feasibility study indicated
•
•
–
–
•
Heritability estimates for net carcass weight, conformation & fat
class: 0.31, 0.24, & 0.14
Data challenges, registration
EBLEX in discussion with breed societies regarding
funding of potential implementation phase