Target Price Change
11 February 2014
+34% 
BUY
Target Price: RMB26.00
Prior: BUY
Prior TP: RMB22.46
600066 CH
Price: RMB19.40
TP Basis: 15 倍 2014 年市盈率
宇通客车
新能源公交业务有望持续超预期
第二批新能源示范城市如期出台后，纳入新能源补贴范围的城市数量达到
Sector Rating: 中性
88 个。我们判断，在持续不散的雾霾影响下，推广新能源公交已成大势所
趋，预计 2014-15 年每年全国新能源公交推广量将达到 3 万台左右。宇通
Trading Summary
<!ANCGRAPH_PriceRelativePrice (1.5,2.7)/>
(%)
Absolute
Relative to XIN9I
YTD
N/A
N/A
1M
3M
Shares outstanding (m)
Free float (%)
Market cap. (RMB m)
3M avg. daily turnover (RMB m)
Net debt/equity (%) (2013E)
Major shareholder (%)
宇通集团
12M
插电式混合动力客车在技术、成本、节油率方面均显著领先于竞争对手，预
计春节之后将迎来采购高峰。同时，我们判断常规混合动力补贴政策也将很
快出台，预计单车补贴金额达到 15-20 万元，如该政策能顺利出台，则宇通
1,274
67
24,717
全年新能源销量将达到 1 万台上下。我们估测，2014 年受益于新能源公交
放量，公司业绩有望实现 30%左右的增长。此外集团零部件资产注入有望
一次性增厚公司 2014 年的每股收益。2015 年起，公司折旧压力大幅减轻，
利息收入大幅增加，业绩弹性仍较大。我们维持公司买入评级，将目标价上
Net cash
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, BOCI Research
Closing prices are as of 07 February 2014
33
调至 26.00 元。
Key Factors for Rating

高于传统客车产品。且随着产销规模扩大，及核心零部件成本持续下降，公司
新能源盈利能力有望进一步上升。如公司新能源公交销量达到 1 万台，则贡献
中银国际证券有限责任公司
的收入将达到 90-100 亿元。按 10%的净利润率计算，则新能源公交的盈利贡
具备证券投资咨询业务资格
汽车: 汽车
新能源公交盈利有望超预期。公司新能源公交产品竞争力突出，盈利能力显著
献将达到 9-10 亿元。

预计春节后有望迎来销售高峰期。目前部分城市针对新能源公交提供配套补贴，
单车补贴金额在 10 万元左右。后续，随着各地配套补贴资金和充电桩等配套建
设补贴政策陆续落地，则宇通新能源公交推广将更加顺利。
宋佳佳
(8621) 2032 8532
Jiajia.song@bocichina.com
证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300513090002

2014 年 1 月，公司销量为 4258 台，同比下降 3.4%。我们预计公司 2014 年销
量有望达到 62500 台，同比增长 11.5%，增长主要由公交和校车推动，座位客
车销量仍将保持平稳。
Key Risks to Rating

国内座位客车市场持续低于预期。新能源客车实际推广情况低于预期
Valuation

我们将公司 2014-15 年每股收益分别上调至 1.73 元和 2.10 元（未考虑资产注
入影响）。维持买入评级，将目标价上调为 26.00 元。
Investment Summary
Year ended 31 十二月
Revenue (RMB m)
Change (%)
Net profit (RMB m)
Fully diluted EPS (RMB)
Change (%)
Consensus EPS (RMB)
Previous EPS (RMB)
Change (%)
Fully diluted P/E (x)
CFPS (RMB)
P/CF (x)
BOCI research is available electronically on www.bociresearch.com.
2011
16,932
26
1,181
0.927
37.4
2012
19,763
17
1,550
1.216
31.2
20.9
1.14
17.1
15.9
1.08
18.0
2013E
22,181
12
1,642
1.289
6.0
1.360
1.294
(0.3)
15.0
2.34
8.3
2014E
25,737
16
2,208
1.733
34.4
1.595
1.496
15.9
11.2
2.44
8.0
2015E
29,340
14
2,675
2.099
21.1
1.896
1.84
14.1
9.2
2.56
7.6
EV/EBITDA (x)
DPS (RMB)
Yield (%)
15.1
0.122
0.6
12.1
0.388
2.0
Source: Company data, BOCI Research estimates
BOCI research is available electronically on www.bociresearch.com.
8.7
0.406
2.1
6.4
0.546
2.8
5.5
0.661
3.4
图表 1. 宇通 2012-2013 年销量及市场份额
市场份额
销量及增速
座位客车
校车
公交客车
卧铺及其他
合计
2012 年
2013 年
30651
29445
7846
同比增
2012 年
2013 年
(3.9)
19.7%
20.7%
7229
(7.9)
28.9%
25.4%
12501
18659
49.3
17.8%
23.3%
690
735
6.5
38.1%
24.0%
51688
56068
8.5
20.3%
22.1%
长（%）
资料来源：公司数据，中银国际研究预测
图表 2. 宇通客车 2014 年销量预测
（台）
座位客车
校车
公交客车
卧铺及其他
合计
同比增长
2013
2014E
29445
30923
4.0
7229
8584
15.0
18659
22193
22.0
735
800
8.8
56068
62500
11.5
（%）
资料来源：公司数据，中银国际研究预测
18 March 2016
宇通客车
THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
3
Cash-flow Statement (RMB m)
Income Statement (RMB m)
Year ended 31 十二月
2011
2012 2013E 2014E 2015E Year ended 31 十二月
Revenue
16,932 19,763 22,181 25,737 29,340
Cost of sales
(13,933) (15,934) (18,184) (20,816) (23,589)
Operating expenses (exclude
(1,437) (1,993) (1,564) (1,944) (2,600)
depreciation & amortisation)
EBITDA
1,562 1,836 2,433 2,977 3,150
Depreciation & amortisation
(229) (298) (721) (759) (481)
Operating profit (EBIT)
1,333 1,538 1,712 2,218 2,670
Net interest income/(expenses)
(9)
38
47
108
190
Other gains/(losses)
30
189
120
200
200
Pre-tax profit
1,353 1,765 1,879 2,526 3,060
Tax on profit
(171) (215) (235) (316) (383)
Minority interests
(1)
0
(2)
(3)
(3)
Net profit
1,181 1,550 1,642 2,208 2,675
Core net profit
1,184 1,565 1,656 2,232 2,698
EPS (RMB)
0.927 1.216 1.289 1.733 2.099
Core EPS (RMB)
0.929 1.229 1.300 1.752 2.118
DPS (RMB)
0.122 0.388 0.406 0.546 0.661
Revenue growth (%)
26
17
12
16
14
EBIT growth (%)
33
15
11
30
20
EBITDA growth (%)
30
18
33
22
6
EPS growth (%)
37
31
6
34
21
Core EPS growth (%)
38
32
6
35
21
Source: Company data, BOCI Research estimates
Cash & cash equivalents
Receivables
Inventories
Other current assets
Total current assets
Fixed assets
Intangible assets
Other long term assets
Total long-term assets
Total assets
Creditors
Short-term debt
Other current liabilities
Total current liabilities
Long-term borrowings
Other long-term liabilities
Share capital
Reserves
Shareholders' equity
Minority interests
Total liabilities & equity
Book value per share (RMB)
Tangible assets per share (RMB)
Net debt/(cash)per share (RMB)
18 March 2016
2012 2013E 2014E 2015E
1,171 3,875 3,787 5,716 7,697
1,868 3,891 3,515 3,761 3,982
1,122 1,258 1,098 1,262 1,433
1,318
992 1,200 1,200 1,200
5,479 10,016 9,600 11,939 14,312
1,312 3,273 3,866 3,801 4,027
985
848
938 1,027 1,115
85
142
142
142
142
2,381 4,263 4,946 4,970 5,285
7,860 14,279 14,546 16,909 19,597
3,744 5,397 4,630 5,299 6,003
14
304
0
0
0
419
703 1,000 1,000 1,000
4,177 6,404 5,630 6,299 7,003
10
156
156
156
156
335
400
250
250
251
520
705 1,274 1,274 1,274
2,813 6,610 7,230 8,921 10,900
3,333 7,315 8,504 10,195 12,174
5
5
7
9
12
7,860 14,279 14,546 16,909 19,597
2.62
5.74
6.67
8.00
9.56
1.84
5.08
5.94
7.20
8.68
(0.90) (2.04) (2.85) (4.36) (5.92)
Source: Company data, BOCI Research estimates
2013E 2014E
1,353 1,765 1,879
229
298
721
9
(38)
(47)
(46) (470) (159)
(171) (215) (235)
72
32
822
1,446 1,372 2,981
(992) (1,896) (1,399)
(1,840) (7,117)
10
1,833 6,697
0
(999) (2,316) (1,389)
0 2,594
41
(61)
443 (304)
(156) (156) (494)
281
27 (103)
65 2,908 (860)
512 1,963
733
659 1,091 3,055
447 (944) 1,592
377 (464) 1,335
2015E
2,526
759
(108)
123
(316)
120
3,104
(776)
10
2
(764)
0
0
(517)
108
(410)
1,931
3,787
2,340
2,448
3,060
481
(190)
472
(383)
(178)
3,262
(787)
10
3
(774)
0
0
(696)
191
(504)
1,984
5,716
2,488
2,678
2014E
2015E
Source: Company data, BOCI Research estimates
Year ended 31 十二月
2011
2012
Key Ratios
Balance Sheet (RMB m)
As at 31 十二月
Pre-tax profit
Depreciation & amortization
Net interest expenses
Change in working capital
Tax paid
Other operating cash flows
Cash flow from operations
Net purchase of fixed assets
Decrease/(increase) in invest.
Other investing cash flows
Cash flow from investing
Net increase in equity
Net increase in debt
Dividends paid
Other financing cash flows
Cash flow from financing
Change in cash
Cash at beginning of year
Free cash flow to firm
Free cash flow to equity
2011
2011
2012
2013E
Profitability (%)
EBITDA margin
9.2
9.3
11.0
11.6
10.7
EBIT margin
7.9
7.8
7.7
8.6
9.1
Pre-tax margin
8.0
8.9
8.5
9.8
10.4
Net profit margin
7.0
7.8
7.4
8.6
9.1
Liquidity (x)
Current ratio
1.3
1.6
1.7
1.9
2.0
Interest coverage
143.9
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Net debt to equity (%)
Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash Net cash
Quick ratio
1.0
1.4
1.5
1.7
1.8
Valuation (x)
P/E
20.9
15.9
15.0
11.2
9.2
Core P/E
20.9
15.8
14.9
11.1
9.2
Core P/E @ target price
28.0
21.2
20.0
14.8
12.3
P/B
7.4
3.4
2.9
2.4
2.0
P/CF
17.1
18.0
8.3
8.0
7.6
EV/EBITDA
15.1
12.1
8.7
6.4
5.5
Activity ratios
Inventory days
30.7
27.3
23.7
20.7
20.8
Accounts receivables days
34.4
53.2
60.9
51.6
48.2
Accounts payables days
81.2
84.4
82.5
70.4
70.3
Returns (%)
Dividend payout ratio
13.2
31.9
31.5
31.5
31.5
Return on equity
40.6
29.1
20.8
23.6
23.9
Return on assets
15.9
12.2
10.4
12.3
12.8
Return on capital employed
45.4
27.6
20.8
23.3
23.5
Source: Company data, BOCI Research estimates
宇通客车
THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
4
DISCLOSURE
This research report is prepared by BOCI Research Limited, a company incorporated in Hong Kong and regulated by the Securities
and Futures Commission in Hong Kong. The views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the analysts
concerned. Save as disclosed herein, (i) each analyst declares that neither he/she nor his/her associate serves as an officer of the
listed corporation reviewed by the analyst; (ii) each analyst declares that neither he/she nor his/her associate has any financial
interests in relation to the listed corporation reviewed by the analyst.
None of the listed corporations reviewed or any third party has provided or agreed to provide any compensation or other benefits in
connection with this report to any of the analysts, BOCI Research Limited and BOCI Group. Analysts receive compensation based
upon the overall revenue and profitability of BOCI Group, including revenues derived from its investment banking business.
Member companies of BOCI Group confirm that they, whether individually or as a group:
(i)
do not own 1% or more financial interests in any of the listed corporations reviewed;
(ii)
are not involved in any market making activities for any of the listed corporation reviewed;
(iii) do not have any individual employed by or associated with any member companies of BOCI Group serving as an officer of any
of the listed corporation reviewed;
(iv) have not managed or co-managed a public offering of the corporations reviewed within the preceding 12 months;
(v)
do not have any investment banking relationship with and have not received, or intend to seek, compensation from the
corporations reviewed for investment banking services rendered within the preceding 12 months;
(vi) do not expect to receive or intend to seek compensation for investment banking services from the corporations reviewed in the
next 3 months.
This disclosure statement is made pursuant to paragraph 16 of the “Code of Conduct for Persons Licensed by or Registered with the
Securities and Futures Commission” and is updated as of [date]. Waiver has been obtained by BOC International Holdings Limited
from the Securities and Futures Commission of Hong Kong to disclose any interests the Bank of China Group may have in this
research report.
This disclosure statement is made pursuant to the requirements contained in NASD Notice 02-39 and 04-18.
18 March 2016
宇通客车
THIS DOCUMENT MAY NOT BE DISTRIBUTED IN OR INTO THE PRC.
5
This report is prepared and issued by BOCI Research Limited for distribution to professional, accredited and institutional
investor customers. This report is being furnished to you on a confidential basis solely for your information and may not be
reproduced or redistributed or passed on directly or indirectly, to any other person or published, in whole or in part, for any
purpose. In particular, neither this report nor any copy hereof may be distributed to the press or other media. This report is
not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any
locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law
or regulation or which would subject BOCI Research Limited, BOC International Holdings Limited and any of their
respective subsidiaries and affiliates (collectively, “BOCI Group”) to any registration or licensing requirement within such
jurisdictions. All trademarks, service marks and logos used in this report are trademarks or service marks or registered
trademarks or service marks of one or more members of the BOCI Group.
The information, tools and material presented in this report are provided to you for information purposes only and shall
not be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or to buy or subscribe for securities or other
financial instruments. BOCI Research Limited has not taken any steps to ensure that the securities referred to in this
report are suitable for any particular investor. The contents of this report do not constitute investment advice to any
person and BOCI Group will not treat recipients as its customers by virtue of their receiving the report. You should seek
the advice from your independent financial advisor prior to making any investment decision.
Although information and opinions presented in this report have been obtained or derived from sources believed by BOCI
Research Limited to be reliable, neither the author or any member of the BOCI Group or their respective directors, officers,
employees or agents has independently verified the information contained in this report nor will any member of BOCI
Group have any liability whatsoever (in negligene or otherwise) for any loss howsoever arising from any use of this report
or its contents or otherwise arising from any use of this report. Accordingly, no representation or warranty, expressed or
implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy or completeness of such information and opinions. This report is not to be
relied upon in substitution for the exercise of independent judgment. Members of the BOCI Group may have issued other
reports that are inconsistent with, and reached different conclusions or opinions from, that presented in this report. Each
report reflects the different assumptions, analytical methods and views of the analysts who prepared them. For the
avoidance of doubt, views expressed in this report do not necessarily represent those of all members of the BOCI Group.
This report may provide the addresses of, or contain hyperlinks to, various websites. To the extent that this report refers to
material outside BOCI Group’s own website, BOCI Group has not reviewed the linked sites and takes no responsibility for
the content contained therein. Such addresses or hyperlinks (including addresses or hyperlinks to BOCI Group’s own
website material) is provided solely for your convenience and information, and the content of the linked sites does not in
any way form part of this report. Accessing such websites is at your own risk.
One or more members of the BOCI Group may, to the extent permitted by law, participate in financing transactions with
the issuers of the securities referred to in this report, perform services for or solicit business from such issuer(s), and/or
have a position or effect transactions in the securities or other financial instruments of such issuers. One or more
members of the BOCI Group may, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the information or opinions presented
herein, or the research or analysis on which they are based, before the material is published. One or more members of
the BOCI Group and the analyst(s) preparing this report (each an “analyst” and collectively the “analysts”) may have
relationships with, financial interests in or business relationships with any or all of the companies mentioned in this
report (each a “listed corporation” and collectively the “listed corporations”). See “Disclosure”. This report does not
constitute or form part of any offer for sale or invitation, or solicitation or an offer, to subscribe for or purchase any
securities and neither this report nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or are to be relied on in
connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever.
Information, opinions and estimates are provided on an “as is” basis without warranty of any kind, and may be changed
at any time without prior notice. Any opinions or estimates contained in this report are based on a number of
assumptions which may not prove valid and may be changed without notice. Nothing in this report constitutes
investment, legal, accounting or tax advice nor a representation that any investment or strategy is suitable or
appropriate to your individual circumstances. Nothing in this report constitutes a personal recommendation to you.
Past performance should not be taken as an indication or guarantee of future performance, and no representation or
warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding future performance. Information, opinions and estimates contained
in this report reflect a judgement at its original date of publication by the member of the BOCI Group which prepared
the report, and are subject to change. The price, value of and income from any of the securities or financial instruments
mentioned in this report can fall as well as rise. Some investments may not be readily realisable, and it may be difficult
to sell or realise those investments. Similarly, it may prove difficult for you to obtain reliable information about the value,
or risks, to which such an investment is exposed. The investments and services contained or referred to in this report
may not be suitable for you. As noted above, it is recommended that you consult an independent investment advisor
before making any investment decision, including the purchase or sale of any security covered in this report. The
distribution of this report in some jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this report
comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions.
The information contained in the report is confidential and is intended solely for the use by its authorised recipient. This
report is distributed in Hong Kong by BOCI Research Limited and BOCI Securities Limited; in Singapore by BOC
International (Singapore) Pte Ltd; in the United States by BOC International (USA), Inc.; and may be in the United
Kingdom by Bank of China International (UK) Limited. In the United Kingdom, this report is not a prospectus and has
not been approved under section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (the “FSMA”). This report may
only be passed on to persons in or outside the United Kingdom in accordance with the Financial Services and Markets
Act 2000 (Financial Promotions) Order 2005, specifically, Eligible Counterparties and Professional Clients (to include
Elective Professional Clients). The transmission of this research report to any other persons must not contravene the
FSMA and other applicable UK securities laws and regulations. All applicable provisions of the FSMA must be
complied with respect to the securities referred to in this report in, from, or otherwise involving the United Kingdom.
This report and any information, material and contents herein are intended for general circulation only and do not take into
account the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs or any particular person. The
investment(s) mentioned in this report may not be suitable for all investors, and a person receiving or reading this report
should seek advice from a financial advisor regarding the suitability of such investment(s), taking into account the specific
investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of that person, before making a commitment to purchase any
of such investment(s). The suitablity of any particular investment or strategy whether opined on, described in or referred to
in this report or otherwise will depend on a person’s individual circumstances and objectives and should be confirmed by
such person with his advisers independently before adoption or implementation thereof (either as is or is varied).
Without prejudice to any of the foregoing disclaimers, to the extent that the reader is an accredited or expert investor
as defined in Regulation 2 of the Financial Advisers Regulations (“FAR”) of the Financial Advisers Act (Cap. 110) of
Singapore (“FAA”), BOC International (Singapore) Pte Ltd is in any event exempted (i) by Regulation 34 of the FAR
from the requirement to have a reasonable basis for making any recommendation as mandated under Section 27 of
the FAA, and (ii) by Regulation 35 of the FAR from the requirements in Section 36 of the FAA mandating disclosure of
any interests in securities mentioned in this report, or in their acquisition or disposal, that it or its associated or
connected persons may have. The receipient of the analysis or report should contact BOCI in Singapore if they have
any queries as to the report/analysis.
Any securities referred to in this report have not been registered with, recommended by or approved by any U.S.
federal or state, or any non-U.S., securities commission or regulatory authority, nor has any such authority or
commission passed upon the accuracy or adequacy of this report. Any securities referred to in this report have not
been and are not expected to be registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or any state of other
securities laws or the laws of any non-U.S. jurisdiction. BOCI Group does not make any representation as to the
availability of Rule 144A or any other exemption under the Securities Act for the sale, resale, pledge or transfer of any
securities referred to in the report. To the extent that the recipient of this report is a “Major U.S. Institutional Investor”
within the meaning of Rule 15a-6 under the United States Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, any decision
to buy or sell a security covered in this report or in any other report issued by a member of the BOC Group, should be
directed exclusively to BOC International (USA), Inc.
Copyright 2013 BOCI Research Limited, BOC International Holdings Limited and its subsidiaries and affiliates. All
rights reserved.
20/F, Bank of China Tower
1 Garden Road
Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 3988 6333
Fax: (852) 2147 9513
Toll free numbers to Hong Kong:
China North: 10800 8521065
China South: 10800 1521065
Singapore: 800 852 3392
BOCI Securities Limited
20/F, Bank of China Tower
1 Garden Road
Hong Kong
Tel: (852) 3988 6333
Fax: (852) 2147 9513
BOC International (UK) Limited
2/F, 1 Lothbury
London EC2R 7DB
United Kingdom
Tel: (4420) 3651 8888
Fax: (4420) 3651 8877
BOC International (USA) Inc.
Room 202, 1270 Avenue of the Americas
New York, NY, 10020, USA
Tel: (1) 212 259 0888
Fax: (1) 212 259 0889
BOC International (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.
Reg. No. 199303046Z
4 Battery Road
4/F Bank of China Building
Singapore 049908
Tel: (65) 6412 8856 / 6412 8630
Fax: (65) 6534 3996 / 6532 3371
BOC International (China) Ltd
39/F Bank of China Tower
200 Yincheng Zhong Road
Shanghai Pudong District
200121 China
Tel: (8621) 6860 4866
Fax: (8621) 5888 3554
BOC International Holdings Ltd
Representative Office
15/F, Tower 2
Yingtai Business Center No.28
Finance Street, Xicheng District
Beijing 100032, China
Tel: (8610) 6622 9000
Fax: (8610) 6657 8950