Demographic Changes and New
Terrain
Leo F. Estrada, PhD
UCLA School of Public Affairs
Demography and Latinas
• Population change is due to:
– Births
– Deaths
– Net Migration
• Future of the U.S is aligned with the future trends of
Latinas
California Population Annual Growth
Components
47% of Growth due to Natural Increase
531,031 Births
-232,658 Deaths
298,374
53% of Growth due to Net Migration
332,488
Total Growth: 630,862
Annual Growth Rate: 1.8 (US: 1.1)
Source: CA Department of Finance, 2003
16 States Will Account for 90% of
Future Growth
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California
Texas
Florida
Georgia
Arizona
Washington
North Carolina
Colorado
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*
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*
Virginia
Tennessee
Utah
South Carolina
Oregon
Michigan
Nevada
Minnesota
California Growth
• 36.8 million persons
• Growth is highest outside major metropolitan
areas
• Fastest Growing Counties: Riverside, Placer,
Imperial, Madera, Kern, Colusa, Merced, and San
Bernardino
• Intensely Growing Cities: Lincoln, Beaumont,
Cochella, Victorville, Indio, La Quinta, Desert Hot
Springs and Colusa
Global California
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Most populous State—largest labor force
2nd largest producer of exported goods
1st in total employment in high tech industries
Largest State Gross Product—8th largest economy
in the world ($1.3 Trillion)
• Largest recipient of foreign direct investment
California Population by
Race and Ethnicity, 1980
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
White
Latino
Black
Asian/Other
California Population by
Race and Ethnicity, 1990
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
White
Latino
Black
Asian/Other
California Population by
Race and Ethnicity, 2000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
White
Latino
Black
Asian/Other
California Population by
Race and Ethnicity, 2010
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
White
Latino
Black
Asian/Other
California Population by
Race and Ethnicity, 2020
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
White
Latino
Black
Asian/Other
California Population by
Race and Ethnicity, 2040
30000000
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
White
Latino
Black
Asian/Other
CALIFORNIA 1990
Other (42%)
White
(58%)
CALIFORNIA 2020
Other (59%)
White (41%)
Department of Finance, Urban Research Unit, Report 88, P-4
CALIFORNIA 2040
Other (69%)
White (31%)
Department of Finance, Urban Research Unit, Report 88, P-4
Age Distribution by Sex and
Hispanic Origin: 2000
(In percent)
Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
White
age
Male
85+
Female
Male
80-84
Female
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
15
10
5
0
5
10
15
15
Source: Current Population Survey, March 2000, PGP-4
10
5
0
5
10
15
Immigration
*Immigration is an global phenomena
*Immigrants are risk takers
*Immigrants revitalize decaying urban areas
*Immigrants reduce the rate of wage growth
Leading Countries of Immigration
1900
1960
2000
Germany
Italy
Mexico
Ireland
Germany
China
Canada
Canada
Philippines
UK
UK
India
Sweden
Poland
Cuba
Italy
Soviet Union
Vietnam
Russia
Mexico
El Salvador
Poland
Ireland
Korea
Norway
Austria
Dominican Republic
U.S. Latinos--The Fourth Largest Latino “Nation”
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1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10
Mexico
Colombia
Spain
United States
Argentina
Peru
Venezuela
Chile
Equador
Guatemala
98.9 million
42.3 million
41.3 million
41.0 million
37.0 million
25.9 million
24.2 million
15.2 million
12.6 million
11.4 million
The number for the U.S would be 44.5 million including Puerto Rico
California Hispanic Population
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11.7 million or 33% of State population
44% of Hispanics are under 18; median age: 26
54% live in households with 5+ persons
33.5% are foreign born; 4 million are from Mexico
Lowest educational attainment, 46% have not
graduated from high school
• One of ten Hispanics are unemployed
• 20% are in poverty—primarily children
Source: CPS, 2004
Growth Forecast
• By 2020, Hispanic population will double
• 36% will be minorities rising from 28% now
• Whites are now minorities in Hawaii and New Mexico and
soon will be in California and Texas
• Most Americans younger than 18 will be minorities
Latinos = California Future
• The welfare of Latinos in California is the welfare and
well-being of all Californians
• Healthcare
• Financial Security
Racial/Ethnic Diversity
 In
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–
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2050, the 65+ population will be different than in 2000
Non-Hispanic whites will decline from 84% to 64%.
Hispanics, 16%.
African Americans, 12%
Asians and Pacific Islanders, 7%
American Indian/Alaskan Native and others, 2%
Economic Diversity
Care giving
– 24% of baby boomers
have children under 21
and provide financial
help or care for an
older adult
– 54% have a caregiving
role for either children,
parents, or both
Economic Diversity
 Three-fourths of
minorities rely on Social
Security for at least half of
their income.
 Without Social Security,
60% of minorities would
be in poverty.
Health
 Racial and ethnic minorities are more
likely to be uninsured.
– 37% Latinos
– 23% African Americans
– 21% Asian Americans and Pacific
Islanders
Health
 27% of minority women age 55-64 are uninsured
compared to 14% of white women.
Women Will Not Fare As Well
 Women who are widowed or divorced age 55-64 are three
times more likely to have an income of under $10,000
compared to married women.
 Older women earn 55 cents to every dollar older men
earn for all hours worked at all jobs.
- Salaried jobs, women earn 69 cents
Women Are More At Risk
 Fewer women age 65+ are receiving money from their
own pension plans compared to men.
– 53% of full time working women are contributing to
their own pension plans compared to 54% of men.
Divided We Fail
• National Movement
• Coalition of AARP, Business, Labor Unions, Others
• Major Objective: To bring the issues of healthcare
reform, financial security and long term care into
the forefront
AARP Divididos Perdemos
HOPE Conference
Adriana M. Mendoza,MSW
Associate State Director
AARP California
Why should we care?
• 6.7 million Californians – nearly 20% of the state’s
residents – are uninsured
• More than 80% of the uninsured are in families where at
least one person is working
• Nearly 1/3 of the uninsured have family incomes of
$50,000 or more
• In 2006, health insurance premiums in California rose by
8.7%
• More than 77% of voters worry that they won’t be able to
pay their medical bills due to a major illness or injury
• Under the current trend, many retirees are at risk of
having health benefits reduced or eliminated
AVAILABILITY
• More than half of all Californians depend on employer-provided health
care
• One-third of Californians under age 65 already get their care through
public insurance programs
• 21% of Americans who try to buy individual health insurance are
denied or charged extra high premiums.
• Health care premiums escalate according to age, health condition and
sometimes profession
• 11% of California emergency rooms have closed in the last decade
AFFORDABILITY
• 50% of all personal bankruptcies in the U.S. are filed as a direct result
of medical bills
• 70% of medical bankruptcies filed are by individuals covered by
health insurance when the illness occurs
• 2 million Americans a year are affected by medial bankruptcy
• Every 30 seconds an American files for medical bankruptcy
• 16% of the U.S. GNP is spent on health care, the next most costly
care is in Switzerland which spends 11%
• $6,102 is the per capita amount the U.S. annually spends on health
care. Nearly twice as much as in Canada ($3,165), France ($3,159)
or Great Britain ($2,508), yet life expectancy is lower in the U.S.
QUALITY
• U.S. Spends 2X as much on average as 21 countries that enjoy a
longer life expentancy
• 18,000 Americans yearly die prematurely due to lack of health care
• Those aged 50-64 are most at risk if they lose employer-based
coverage as they are typically ineligible for individual coverage or face
astronomical premiums
• 63% of adult Californians favor a universal health care system.
• Infant mortality is higher in the U.S. than countries such as Canada,
France, Australia or Great Britain, which spend less per capita on
health care
• Patients without or limited insurance are being dumped by hospitals,
sometimes on the streets, because CA lacks a system of continuing
care
Women
• Almost 1/3 (32%) of women age 45 and older feel the cost
of health care or prescription drugs sometimes prevents
them from seeing a doctor or getting treatment when they
need it
• Women live longer and have higher rates of disability than
men, so are more likely to need care (79%) than men (58%)
and on average need care for longer (3.7 years) than men
(2.2 years).
• Median income of women 65+ is only slightly more than half
that of men 65+
• Women have fewer sources of retirement income and smaller
amountys in each source than men of comparable age.
• Women’s source of retirement income is Social Security
(Hispanic women)
Women
• In 2003, poverty rates were 40% for Black and Hispanic
women age 65+ living alone compares with 17% for nonHispanic White women living alone
• About 60% of informal caregivers are women
• 44% of female caregivers report high levels of physical strain
or emotional stress
• In the Middle – “Entre Generaciones” (Latinas)
AARP California
Health Care Principles
1) All Californians have a right to affordable, high-quality health care
when they need it
2) Financing of health care should be fair
3) Policies and technologies that lower health care costs should be part
of California’s health care reform
4) Individuals should take personal responsibility for their health by
educating themselves and taking preventive measures to guard
against illness and disease.
5) Persons of any age who have a disability should have a gull array of
services available to them
AARP Divided We Fail
Campaign
• AARP Launched DWF to amplify the voices of millions of Americans
who believe that HC and lifetime financial security are the most
pressing domestic issues facing our nation
• We are mobilizing for the 2008 elections
• The health care system is broken
• Lifetime financial security is a cornerstone of the American dream
• Politicians in Washington have been content to stall, argue criticize
and blame each other rather than solving these problems
• Americans have the right to know where our candidates stand
• Hold candidates accountable
Organizing: An Important
Hispanic/Latino Issue
TACTICS
• Efforts to mobilize and educate Hispanic/Latino Community
• Permanent Absentee Voting Applications (English/Spanish)
• “Divididos Perdemos” Blitz Communities - Forums
• Segunda Juventud
• Personal stories
• Strategy chart
• Community partners
• Volunteers
• Media
How to become involved:
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Sign the Pledge!
Become an e-activist
Attend AARP events
Volunteer
EVENTS:
• Pasadena Conference on Aging
• “Mujeres Destacadas Luncheon”
• Statewide activities (Bi-National Health Week w/Mexican Consulates)
• Regional activities (Ventura County Women’s Forum)
Call To Action
• The time for action is NOW!
• Join the movement – become a Divided we fail voter. Sign the Pledge
Card!
Divided We Fail.
Together we can do anything!
Questions?/Preguntas
Adriana M. Mendoza, MSW
Associate State Director
AARP California
805-681-3505
amendoza@aarp.org