The 2010 Census and
Demographic Change
Leo F. Estrada, PhD
UCLA School of Public Affairs
The Origins of the Census
“The Great Experiment”
Congressional Representation based on
population
First Census—1790 (10 year intervals)
Census-racial distinctions
Collection of household information
Census Timeline
Late January 2010: media outreach
begins
Mid-March: forms mailed out to 100
million households
April 1, 2010: Census Day
May – July 2010: phone follow-up
interviews
July – September 2010: interview
follow-up
October – December: data processing
The 2010 “Short” Census
Name
Sex
Age
Date of Birth
Hispanic Origin
Race
Household Relationships
Own or rent
The American Community
Survey
On-going monitor 77K households per
month
Data summed up annually
In 2010, survey sample will be of 1 million
households
Characteristics of population will be
determined by ACS (i.e., education,
occupation, home value, income, etc)
The Undercount?
Every 1% of undercount is = to 3 Million
The undercount in 2000 was 2.78%
Most likely to be undercounted:
Granny flats (address undercount)
Babies (intra-household undercount)
Youth (permanent residence)
Transients (permanent residence)
Immigrants (distrust, fear)
Outreach
Importance of outreach for cooperation
Trusted sources of information
Alleviate confidentiality and privacy
concerns
Why the Census Matters
Reapportionment/Redistricting
Restructuring political space
Government funding--$400 Billion for
transportation, hospitals, schools, public
works, etc.
Source for understanding markets
Growth
US Population Growth, 2000-2008
2008
(millions)
2000
(millions)
%2008 %2000
Diff
46.9
35.2
15.5
12.5
3.0
Native
27.3
21.1
9.1
7.5
1.6
Foreign
Born
18.0
14.1
6.0
5.0
1.0
White
206.2
194.5
67.8
69.1
-2.7
Black
37.6
33.7
12.4
12.0
0.4
Asian
13.4
10.1
4.4
3.6
0.8
Hispanic
U.S. Census Bureau, ACS, 2007 and 2008
Demography and Latinas
 Population change is due to:
 Births
 Deaths
 Net Migration
 Future of the U.S is aligned with the
future trends of Latinas
Women Giving Birth Last Year,
2007
Births
% of all Births
% Births to
Unmarried
Latinas
897,810
21.7
42.0
US Born Latinas
419,494
10.1
52.4
Foreign Born
Latinas
478,316
11.6
32.9
White
2,337,722
56.5
26.4
Black
565,588
13.7
70.5
Asian
210,686
5.1
10.5
4,136,978
100.0
35.8
Total
Projections in Elementary School
Minority Aged Children
2000 to 2025
35000
30000
25000
Other
Asian
Hispanic
Black
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
2000
2005
2010
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, CPS, P25-1130
2025
Marriage
CA Women by Marital Status, 2007
All
Latinas
US
Born
Latinas
Foreign
Born
Latinas
White
Women
Black
Women
%Married
50.8
41.6
58.4
56.6
32.8
%Separated
4.1
3.5
4.5
1.6
4.9
%Divorced
8.4
10.5
6.8
11.7
12.4
%Widowed
3.6
3.7
3.6
7.3
6.9
%Never
Married
33.1
40.8
26.7
22.7
42.9
Total
30.0
13.5
16.5
156.6
26.0
(millions)
Marital Status: National Hispanic Population
16,000,000
14,000,000
12,000,000
People
10,000,000
8,000,000
6,000,000
4,000,000
2,000,000
0
Now Married
Widowed
Total
Source: Pew Hispanic Center and ACS 2005
Divorced
Native Born
Separated
Foreign Born
Never Married
Marital Status of National Hispanic Population
70.0
60.0
Percentage
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
10.0
0.0
Now Married
Widowed
Total
Divorced
Native Born
Source: Pew Hispanic Center and American Community Survey 2005
Separated
Foreign Born
Never Married
Marital Status in California
60.00%
50.00%
Percentage
40.00%
30.00%
20.00%
10.00%
0.00%
Now married,
excepted
Separated
Widowed
Source: American Community Survey 2006-2008
Divorced
Total
Hispanic
Separated
Never
Morbidity: Causes of Death
Leading Causes of Death, 2005
Rank
Cause of Death
Deaths Rate
/ 100,000
Percent of All
Deaths
Ratio of
Hispanic to nonHispanic White
1
Heart Disease
222.2
27
0.7
2
Cancer
186.6
23
0.6
3
Stroke
51.1
6
0.8
4
Respiratory Disease
41.5
5
0.4
5
Accidents
38.1
5
0.8
6
Diabetes mellitus
24.9
3
1.5
7
Alzheimer’s
22.5
3
0.6
8
Influenza / Pneumonia
20.3
3
0.9
9
Kidney Disease
14.5
2
0.9
10
Blood Poisoning
11.4
1
0.8
11
Suicide
11.0
1
0.5
12
Liver Disease
9.2
1
1.6
13
High Blood Pressure
7.9
1
1.0
14
Parkinson’s Disease
6.1
1
0.6
15
Homicide
5.9
1
2.7
Youthfulness
Age Distribution by Sex and
Hispanic Origin: 2000
(In percent)
Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
White
age
Male
85+
Female
Male
80-84
Female
75-79
70-74
65-69
60-64
55-59
50-54
45-49
40-44
35-39
30-34
25-29
20-24
15-19
10-14
5-9
0-4
15
10
5
0
5
10
15
15
Source: Current Population Survey, March 2000, PGP-4
10
5
0
5
10
15
California Median Age, 2007
White
Latino
Total
42.5
26.6
Male
41.3
26.4
Female
43.6
26.8
CA Latina/o Median Age, 2007
Total
Latino
Latina
Total
27
27
27
US Born
17
17
18
Foreign
Born
36
35
38
Immigration
Immigration
*Immigration is an global phenomena
*Immigrants are risk takers
*Immigrants revitalize decaying urban areas
*Immigrants reduce the rate of wage growth
Leading Countries of Immigration
1900
1960
2000
Germany
Italy
Mexico
Ireland
Germany
China
Canada
Canada
Philippines
UK
UK
India
Sweden
Poland
Cuba
Italy
Soviet Union
Vietnam
Russia
Mexico
El Salvador
Poland
Ireland
Korea
Norway
Austria
Dominican
Republic
CA Latina Citizenship, 2007
Latinas <18
Latinas 18+
2,216,306
4,086,793
91.1
42.6
Foreign Born
8.8
57.4
Naturalized
9.8
32.7
Not US citizen
8.0
38.6
Native Born
U.S. Citizenship of the Foreign-Born
Hispanic Population by Year of Entry: 2000
(in percent)
80
74.2
70
60
50
45.7
40
30
23.9
20
6.7
10
0
Before 1970
1970 to 1979
Source: Current Population Survey, March 2000, PGP-4
1980 to 1989
1990 to 2000
The New Demographic
Terrain
16 States Will Account for 90% of
All Future Growth in the US
California
Texas
Florida
Georgia
Arizona
Washington
North Carolina
Colorado
Virginia
Tennessee
Utah
South Carolina
Oregon
Michigan
Nevada
Minnesota
California Population by
Race and Ethnicity, 1980
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
White
Latino
Black
Asian/Other
California Population by
Race and Ethnicity, 1990
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
White
Latino
Black
Asian/Other
California Population by
Race and Ethnicity, 2000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
White
Latino
Black
Asian/Other
California Population by
Race and Ethnicity, 2010
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
White
Latino
Black
Asian/Other
California Population by
Race and Ethnicity, 2020
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
White
Latino
Black
Asian/Other
California Population by
Race and Ethnicity, 2040
30000000
25000000
20000000
15000000
10000000
5000000
0
White
Latino
Black
Asian/Other
California Population by Race/Ethnicity
1970-2007
Source: United States Census Bureau
California Latinos will become the
single largest ethnic group
Source: California
Department of Finance
CALIFORNIA 1990
Other (42%)
White
(58%)
CALIFORNIA 2020
Other (59%)
White (41%)
Department of Finance, Urban Research Unit, Report 88, P-4
CALIFORNIA 2040
Other (69%)
White (31%)
Department of Finance, Urban Research Unit, Report 88, P-4
U.S. Latinos--The Fourth Largest
Latino “Nation”










1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10
Mexico
United States
Colombia
Spain
Argentina
Peru
Venezuela
Chile
Ecuador
Guatemala
110 million
46.9 million
44.4 million
41.3 million
36.0 million
28.7 million
26.4 million
16.4 million
13.7 million
13.0 million
The number for the U.S is 51.4 million including Puerto Rico
Education
Chicana/o Educational Pipeline
100
Elementary School
Students
56
Drop out of
School
1.
44
2.
Graduate from
High School
3.
4.
17
Enroll in College
Go to a
Community
College
26
5.
6.
7.
8.
1
Transfers to a
4-Year College
9.
7
Graduate w/ a
B.A. Degree
10.
2
Graduate w/ a
Graduate or
Professional Degree
11.
<1
Source: 2000 Census; Dan Solorzano
Graduates w/ a
Doctoral Degree
9
Go to a 4Year College
Educational attainment, 200507
Latino educational attainment,
2005-07
Latino educational attainment,
1990 to 2005-07
Early Childhood Education: Children
Enrolled in Pre-School
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
White, NH
Black, NH
Asian
Hispanic
Age 3
Age 4
Age 5
Source: CPS, Bureau of the Census, October, 1997
Digital divide:
“Do you ever visit the website of your child’s
school?”
Source: PPIC
Occupations and Earnings
Occupations CA Women, 2007
White Women
Latinas
3,533,648
2,187,309
Management
46.4
21.2
Service
14.7
29.0
Sales
35.6
35.0
Farming
0.1
2.2
Construction
0.7
0.7
Production
2.6
1.2
CA Earnings, 2007
White
Latino
% of
White
Earnings
Male, Full- $62,789
Time
Worker
$29,807
47.5%
Female,
Full-Time
Worker
26,066
55.9%
46,600
CA Per Capita Income, 2007
 Whites
 Blacks
 Latino
$39,761
$21,406
$15,206
Latino Politics
An ever important force….but low on
registration..
California Latino Voters, 2008
5,000,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
Citizen Adults
Registered Voters
60 percent of eligible Latino adults are registered to vote
California Latino Voters
2,500
2,000
1,500
Latino Voters
1,000
500
0
1996
2000
Source: NALEO
2004
2008
California Latino Share of Total Vote
(percent)
18
16
14
12
10
Latino Share of
Vote
8
6
4
2
0
1996
2000
Source: NALEO
2004
2008
California Voter Registration
Metro
Area
Latino
1990
Latino
2000
Latino
Growth
Non-Latino
2000
Non-Latino
Growth
Los Angeles
766,017
1,359,497
77%
5,578,624
8%
San
Francisco
276,452
309,198
12%
2,984,134
7%
San Diego
109,100
158,575
45%
964,347
-10%
Sacramento
129,544
175,479
35%
1,562,726
17%
Fresno
107,424
153,354
43%
474,137
Other
118,854
191,173
61%
1351,000
2,347,271
56%
TOTALS
1,507,391
12,914,968
6%
27%
9%
Conclusions
Growth Forecast
 By 2020, Hispanic population will
double
 36% will be minorities rising from
28% now
 Whites are now minorities in Hawaii
and New Mexico and soon will be in
California and Texas
 Most Americans younger than 18 will
be minorities
Latinos in California
 A New Terrain-A majority of Californians (53.4%)
are non-White
 Latinos in California-remain youthful, employed,
with changing families, and generational differences
 Impact: schools, consumer base, labor force, nonEnglish language media, business formation, voting
power, etc.
 Persistent Issues: immigration, language, concerns
about separatism, low educational attainment
PPIC
Digital divide:
“Do you ever visit the website of your child’s
school?”
Digital divide:
Do you ever use a computer at home, at work,
or at school?”
“How serious of a threat is air pollution in your
region
to you and your immediate family?”
“How serious of a threat is air pollution in your
region
to you and your immediate family?”
Politics: Percent Voting for Obama
Politics: Voted “yes” on Proposition 8
to ban same-sex marriage