Mathematics in Finance Introduction to financial markets What to do with money? • spend it – car – gifts – holiday – ... • invest it – savings book – bonds – shares – derivatives – real estate – ... I Savings book • Lending K€, getting K(1+r)€ after a year • bank hopes to earn a higher return on K than r • (for example by lending it) • practically no risk Risk free interest rate r • can be obtained by investing with no risk • USA: often interest which the government pays • Europe: EURIBOR (European Interbank Offered Rate) • positive. • discount factor –100 today 100(1+r) in one year –100 in one year 100/(1+r) today II Bonds An IOU from a government or company. In exchange for lending them money they issue a bond that promises to pay you back in the future plus interest. • • • • (IOU = investor owned utilities) Fixed-interest bonds Floating bonds Zero bonds III Shares Certificate representing one unit of ownership in a company. • • • • Shareholder = owner Particular part of nominal capital Traded on stock exchange No fixed payments Div1 Earnings per share: EPS = P0 P1 P0 + P0 IV Derivatives A derivated financing tool. Its value is derivated from an underlying. • • Underlyings: shares, bonds, weather, pork bellies, football scores, ... Different derivatives: 1. Forwards 2. Futures 3. Options IV Derivatives - Forwards Agreement to buy or sell an asset at a certain future time for a certain price. Not normally traded on exchange. • • • • Over the counter (OTC) Value at begin: Zero Agree to buy long position Agree to sell short position IV Derivatives - Futures Agreement to buy or sell an asset at a certain time in future for a certain price. Normally traded on exchange. • • • • Standardized features Agree to buy long position Agree to sell short position Exchanges: CBOT, CME, ... IV Derivatives - Options Give the holder the right to buy or sell the underlying at a certain date for a certain price. (European options) • • • • • Right to buy call option Right to sell put option Payoff function Cash settlement Exchanges: AMEX, CBOT, Eurex, LIFFE, EOE, ... IV Derivatives - Options Denotations: • • • • Strike Maturity Buy option Sell option you can buy or sell for that price date when the option expires long position (holder) short position (writer) Exercising ... ... only at maturity possible ... at any date up to maturity possible European American IV Derivatives - Options 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 -2 underlying at T 45 41 37 33 29 25 21 17 13 9 5 -4 1 Example 1: Long Call on stock S with strike K=32, maturity T, price P=2. Payoff function: f(S) = max(0,S(T) – K) IV Derivatives - Options Example 2 (how to use options): 1.1.: 100 shares of S, each 80 € 30.6: must pay 7500€ (by selling the shares) Problem: price of shares could fall under 75€ Solution: buy 100 puts with strike 77 each option costs 2 Result: S(T) > 77 S(T) < 77 you have > 7700€ -200€ you have = 7700€ -200€ IV Derivatives - Options Example 3 (how to use options): Situation: You think the prices of S will raise & want to profit from that. One share costs 100€. You have 10000€. Solution 1: you buy 100 shares. Solution 2: you buy calls (10€) with strike 100. Result if the prices raise to 120: Case 1: your profit 100*20€ Case 2: your profit 1000*20€-1000*10€ = 2000€ = 10000€ IV Derivatives - Options Example 4 (how to use options): Call with strike 105 costs 2€ each Put with strike 110 costs 2€ each (same maturity) Action: Buy 100 calls and 100 puts. Result at T: Costs 200*2€ Income (110€-105€)*100 Riskless profit (arbitrage) = 400€ = 500€ IV Derivatives - Options Other options: • Spreads f(S)=max(0,K-S)+max(0,S-K) • Strangles f(S)=max(0,K-S)+max(0,S-L) • Pathdependant options: – Floating rate options F(S) = max(0,S(T)-mean(S)) – ... • Options on options • ... underlying maturity strike Option value volatility Interest rate dividends II Derivatives - Options strike underlying maturity volatiliy interest rates dividends up up approaching up up are paid Call Put down up up down down down up up ~ ~ down up Summary Assets: • Savings book (risk free) • Bonds • Shares • Derivatives Futures Forwards Options Problem: How can options be priced? – Modelling – Black-Scholes – Solving partial differential equations – Monte-Carlo simulation – ...