Between Democracy and
Authoritarianism in Southeast
Asia (with reference to Thailand
and Myanmar)
Dr. Thitinan Pongsudhirak
Professor and Director, The Institute of Security
and International Studies
Faculty of Political Science
Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok
Sir Howard Kippenberger Chair for 2015
Centre for Strategic Studies, VUW
Prepared for Catalyst/Queenstown
27 July 2015
Presentation outline
1. Conceptualising Southeast Asia
2. Themes and trends
3. Survey of domestic landscapes
4. Premises, pitfalls, prospects
1. Conceptualising Southeast
Asia
History shapes and geography defines; maps as
destiny? Future more like the past
 Southeast Asia; South-East Asia; Far East;
Association of Southeast Asian Nations
(Asean/ASEAN)
 An unnatural region of exceptional diversity and
dynamism between mainland and maritime nationstates
 A compelling region because of trajectories, critical
mass, prospects, hedging v. China and other
regions

1. Conceptualising Southeast
Asia (cont.)
 Southeast
Asia’s amidst power shifts and
power transitions in a long continuum
 US’ debt and dysfunction; EU’s
peak/plateau eurozone crisis/Russia
 Unraveling of Middle East after SykesPicot; post-Arab Spring
 Grappling with post-WWII world order,
post-Cold War, and world disorder in the
21st century
•
•
Source: World Bank
Asean factsheet
(As of 2013)
Population: 620 million
GDP: US$2.403 trillion
CLMT
Population
Cambodia
GDP
15,135,169
15,238,689,686
6,769,727
11,242,526,454
Myanmar
53,259,018
59,430,000,000
Thailand
67,010,502
387,252,164,291
142,174,416
473,163,380,431
Laos
Total
Source: World Bank 2013 (Except Myanmar GDP from gms-eoc 2013)
GMS
Population
Cambodia
GDP
15,135,169
15,238,689,686
6,769,727
11,242,526,454
Myanmar
53,259,018
59,430,000,000
Thailand
67,010,502
387,252,164,291
Vietnam
89,708,900
171,390,003,299
Yunnan &
Guangxi
(approx.)
93,410,000
369,820,000,000
325.3mn
1.015trn
Laos
Total
Source: World Bank 2013 (Except Yunnan & Guangxi from gms-eoc 2012 and Myanmar GDP from gms-eoc 2013)
2.Themes and trends
China more dominant in mainland; US still major
player in maritime (e.g. pivot and rebalance);
Asean divisions/divergences
 Japan as maritime power with mainland interest
 EU, SK, Australia, India, Russia,NZ?
 Incumbent domestic regimes under stress;
adjustments or tension/turmoil
 Between democracy, democratisation, and
authoritarianism (military/civilian)
 Internal conflicts and insurgencies
 Growth and prosperity models at risk

3. Survey of domestic
landscapes
 Thailand:
coups and crises
 A monarchy-centred political order
rebuilt and reshaped after 1932-58
 A monarchy-military symbiosis
 A Cold War fighting machine:
monarchy, military and bureaucracy
 Victim of its twin successes:
communism at bay + development
3. Survey of domestic
landscapes (cont.)
 Thailand
(cont.): Development and
modernisation in 1960s-90s culminated with the
rise of abusive and astute Thaksin Shinawatra
from new elites in early 21st century; subjects v.
citizens
 2006 & 2014 coups: half-baked to ‘all-in’
 2014 concentrates power, delegates less,
maintains direct control
 NCPO junta’s governing structure: interim
charter; PM/Cabinet, NLA, NRC, Constitutionaldrafting committee (CDC)
3. Survey of domestic
landscapes (cont.)
 Thailand
(cont.): Reaction and regression in the
face of 21st-century changes and dynamics
 International norms, technologies, absence of
Cold War, globalisation
 Electoral winners not allowed to rule; losers
can’t win election; poor opposition
 The end of Thailand as we know it
 A recalibrated political order is imperative;
reconciling monarchy and democracy
 Scenarios and prospects
The anti-government
protest started in
mid 2004.
The Military
Coup in Sept
2006
The People's Alliance
for Democracy (PAD,
yellow shirts) started
protesting in Feb 2006.
Thak Rak Thai Party
won the election for
the second term in
Mar 2005.
PAD revived its street
demonstrations in May
2008 and seized SBIA
in Nov. The Democrat
Party became the
government in Dec.
The People’s Power Party won
the election in Dec
2007.
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Pheu Thai party
won the election in
Jul 2011.
Emergency Decree
on Investment Loan
for Water Resource
Management &
Future Development
The 2-trillion-baht
borrowing bill for
infrastructure
development is in
the process.
The United Front for Democracy
Against Dictatorship (red shirts) led
major anti-government rallies in April
2009 and in Mar–May 2010.
Thailand Flooding
in late 2011
16
2006
2014
2006
2014
2006
2013/14
2008
2010
2013/14
3. Survey of domestic
landscapes (cont.)
 Myanmar:
breakout from August 2011
 renewed ethnic conflicts/insurgencies,
religious/communal violence between
Buddhists and Muslim
Rohinya/Bangladeshi
 Presidential contest towards elections on
8th Nov. 2015; ethnic parties to be crucial
 Key players: Aung San Suu Kyi, Speaker
Thura Shwe Mann, Defence Chief Min
Aung Hlaing, President Thein Sein
 Elements of compromise and
accommodation or backsliding; half-full
2015 – the race & the contenders
3. Survey of domestic landscapes (cont.)
 Malaysia’s
growing polarisation; Najib v. Mahathir;
Najib/Mahathir v. Anwar; corruption/cronyism
(1MDB); Najib outgoing?; longer-term crises
 Philippines after Aquino (III)?; building on limited
momentum; keep eye on Senator Grace Poe
 Singapore’s post-LKY democratic adjustments;
maintaining PAP’s dominance
 Indonesia under Jokowi; domestic focus and less
international statesmanship; maritime development
 Vietnam’s domestic challenges and promising growth
prospects
 Hun Sen’s Cambodia; succession manoeuvres;
CNRP’s gains; electoral demo.
 Holdouts: Laos and Brunei; Laos under China
GDP Growth in Southeast Asia and Selected Asian and Developed Economies (yearon-year percentage changes)
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Brunei
Darusalam
3.4
0.9
-1.8
5.3
3.0
Cambodia
7.1
7.3
7.4
7.2
7.3
Indonesia
6.5
6.3
5.8
5.2
5.5
Laos P.D.R.
8.0
7.9
8.0
7.4
7.2
Malaysia
5.2
5.6
4.7
5.9
5.2
Myanmar
5.9
7.3
8.3
8.5
8.5
Philippines
3.7
6.8
7.2
6.2
6.3
Singapore
6.1
2.5
3.9
3.0
3.0
Thailand
0.1
6.5
2.9
1.0
4.6
Vietnam
6.2
5.2
5.4
5.5
5.6
ASEAN-10
Average
5.2
5.6
5.2
5.5
5.6
China
9.3
7.7
7.7
7.4
7.1
India
6.6
4.7
5.0
5.6
6.4
United States
1.6
2.3
2.2
2.2
3.1
Japan
-0.5
1.5
1.5
0.9
0.8
European Union
1.7
-0.3
0.2
1.6
1.8
World Average
3.9
3.2
3
3.6
3.9
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2014.
4. Premises, pitfalls,
prospects
Growth and prosperity need focus
 Downside risks: no effective security/peace
resolution framework (South China Sea, ThaiCambodian, US-China)
 Non-traditional security challenges
 Unstable domestic landscapes adversely
affect regional prospects
 Vulnerabilities to outside (China, EU, US)
 Democracy and authoritarianism in SEAsia
 Bottom Line: an appealing region and solid
hedge for New Zealand amidst global
disorder
