Geopolitics – “Politics Among Nations”
A Definition of Geopolitics
• Geopolitics is the interplay among geography, power, politics,
and international relations on the earth’s surface. Geopolitics
brings locational considerations, environmental contexts,
territorial ideas and arrangements, and spatial assumptions to
the fore. Geopolitics helps us understand the spatial power
arrangements that shape international relations.
Fouberg, Erin H., et al. H.J. Human Geography: People, Place, and Culture. 11th ed. Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, 2015. Print.
Six Principles of Political Realism
1. Politics is governed by objective laws that have their roots in
human nature.
we do not have to concern
ourselves with questions of
“motives, preferences, and
intellectual and moral qualities of
successive statesmen.”
2. Interest is defined in terms of power
“anything that establishes
and maintains the control
of man over man.”
3. Power is an objective idea which is universally valid (though in
some circumstances, its forms can change)
Hans Morgenthau’s “Permanent and Nonpermanent
Elements of National Power”
• Permanent Elements of Power
- climate
- demography
- geography/topography
- hydrology
- natural resource endowment (including petroleum)
• Nonpermanent Elements of Power
- political system (legitimacy, leadership, diplomacy)
- military (quality and quantity of armed forces, including leadership)
- social and economic (how the population is organized and mobilized)
- industrial capacity (technology/informational usage)
- psychological national character and morale (“degree of determination”)
4. Universal moral principles cannot be applied to the actions of
states in the abstract; the circumstances of time and place must
be considered
The state must place
its survival above all
other moral goods.
Geopolitical actions
are judged by their
consequences– not
their intentions.
5. Political realism refuses to identify the moral aspirations of a
particular nation with the moral laws that govern the universe
6. The political realist must show where the nation's
interests differ from moralistic and legalistic viewpoints.
Examples
• “Geopolitics of the United States: An Inevitable Empire”
- which elements are at work and how?
• “Geopolitics of China: A Great Power Enclosed”
- which elements are at work and how?
Geopolitics of Afghanistan?
-which elements are at work and how?
Forms of Political Power
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Hard and soft power
Coercion/force
Legitimacy
Bargaining
Bribing
Blackmail/whistleblowing
Unequal Resources Activity Follow-Up Vocabulary
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Law of scarcity
Interdependence
Conflict
Trade
Locational advantages
Levels of Economic Development- Primary, Secondary, Tertiary,
Quaternary, Quinary – (see definitions on SOD vocab handout)
Geopolitics and Strategic Resources: Fossil
Fuels
Fossil Fuels
• Energy demand has doubled over the last 30 years and is
expected to rise by 60% by 2020
• Coal, petroleum, natural gas
- provide 85% of commercial industry energy and produce 80%
of CO2 emissions
• Natural gas is the cleanest burning of the fossil fuels – US,
Russia, Persian Gulf countries have abundant supplies
Europe is “held hostage” by Russian gas supplies
• U.S. has 5% of the world’s population, uses 25% of world’s
resources and produces 50% of world’s solid waste
• China, India, and other emerging economies are creating
increased demand for fossil fuels. China produces most
emissions, U.S. produces most emissions per capita
Oil
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Petroleum (crude oil) – the most geopolitically important commodity
any structural change in oil markets will reverberate throughout the world
Oil provides 40% of the world’s energy
Largest oil reserves are in Saudi Arabia and in countries around the Persian Gulf –
slightly over 2/3 of the world’s proven reserves
• Fun fact - According to National Geographic, 1lb of beef takes ¾ gallon of oil to
produce
Oil
• OPEC - Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, 12 countries
• OPEC controls 81% of proven crude oil reserves with 70.6% in the Middle
East(ME)- Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE
Non Middle East members - Nigeria, Venezuela, Algeria, Libya, Angola,
Ecuador
• When prices are high OPEC increases production and when they are low it
cuts production - Supply and Demand
• Key “chokepoint”- Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf
• It is in the US and global economic interests to keep the oil flowing
through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Currently a significant drop in oil prices because of increased production in
the U.S., Canada, and other non-OPEC countries
Oil
Effects of dip in prices on OPEC members:
Short Term Problems
Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait are the only OPEC members with enough flexibility
to reduce oil production without hurting because of deep cash reserves.
None of the other members are in a financial position to take oil production offline.
Libya, Algeria, Iraq, Iran, Nigeria and Venezuela all need maximum oil output and high
prices to finance their budgets and social spending programs.
Long Term
continual increase in production from US and Canada and other non-OPEC countries
Saudi Arabia has made no cuts in order to drive prices down to hurt US producers and
Iran- SA can handle the lower prices better– End of OPEC?
Resource Curse/Paradox of Plenty
• Countries dependent on revenue from oil exports can be
corrupt and/or dictatorial because the government leaders
control the oil revenue and use it to enrich themselves and buy
weapons to enforce their rule and protect themselves.
• When the price of oil goes up governments can use the money
to pay off their population with better benefits. When the
price goes down there may be more unrest and opposition.
• American Values vs. American Interests
New Sources of Oil
Canadian Tar Sands
Pros: Almost as much as Saudi Arabia’s reserves.
Close supply for the US.
Cons: Environmental problems associated with
extraction and processing.
Controversy over Keystone Pipeline route from
Canada to Texas Gulf Coast—fear of oil spill over
Ogallala aquifer in Nebraska.
Releases carcinogens into soils, water.
Three times the global warming emissions as
conventional oil production (James Hansen,
director of NASA Goddard Institute “game over for
climate”)
Obama rejected it on November 6, 2015.
Source: National Resources Defense Council
Caspian Sea and Central Asia
Pros: Non-Middle East/Russian source
Cons: Landlocked- must build pipelines across
multiple countries. Can involve putting U.S.
interests over U.S. values - support for
dictatorships/corrupt govts.
“Great Game” competition for access- China,
Russia, US, Europe
http://www.newgreatgame.com/excerpts.htm
New Sources of Oil cont’
Deep Water Drilling
Pros: Abundant new reserves being found in Gulf of Mexico, the
Arctic, off the coast of Brazil, and various African nations
Cons: Deepwater Horizon BP oil spill in 2010 - approximately 5
million barrels; environmental disaster
African Sources
Pros: Non ME/Russian; Provides income for poor nations
Cons: Government corruption and support for dictators—can put
U.S. interests over U.S. values
Causes internal conflicts – Sudan, Nigeria, Equatorial Guinea;
China’s interests
Hydraulic Fracturing (Fracking)
• Pressurized fluids are pumped into shale formations fracturing
the rock allowing oil and/or natural gas to escape.
• Has led to old fields becoming new again. The US has greatly
benefited from this technology.
Pros: reduced oil and gas prices- stimulate the economy
less need for Middle East /Russian sources
Some estimate US oil independence by 2020 - US could be
in a position to put values before interests?
Cons: Massive water usage 3-8 million gallons per well
Water and air pollution from fracking chemicals, methane
Contamination of drinking water
Induced seismicity- microearthquakes
Unrest in oil exporting countries because of lowered oil
prices
Texas Railroad Commission hired a seismologist, Jan. 2014
• 2014 was the hottest year on record. 2015 might beat it.
• http://time.com/3656646/2014-hottest-year/