 Strategic resource ?
 The purpose in geopolitics is to understand if countries with oil and gas have the status of power ?
 Many countries in the north despite their status of power are under dependence
 Power ? Dependence ?

 Understanding geopolitics of oil requires an analysis of
 Importations
 Exportations
 Management of flux (how trade is managed)

 Importations : more and more to Asian countries like India or China
 Now US and Europe represent 55% of oil and gas importations
 After the oil crisis in 1973 two factors
 Oil and gas market became strategic market
 The use of dollar raises monetary question
 Huge demand
 Few resources
 Less investment

Oil
• Oligopolistic structures
(OPEP)
• More controlled
• MNC, States,
Gas
• No agreement
• Wish to built an organization from Russia

 Analysis from James Kunstler “ The End of oil”
 Europe faces issues with Saudi Arabia if a revolutionary regime is set up.
 Strategy of limitations to Europe
 Consequences: decline of Europe and raise of China or India.

 Risk of penury
 Two politics for developed countries
 Find an other source of energy
 Close management of oil and gas resources
For developing countries
Need the help of developed countries even if this countries are dependent

Venezuela
Saudi
Arabia
Russia
Kazakhstan
Turkmenistan

• Stability with OPEP
• Instability among history
• Wants to control Europe
• Having the monopoly on Norway and
Algeria
• Strategy of Putine
• Can control US
• New agreements with Putine

 Three factors have to be taken in consideration
 Offer : not that much
 Demand : a lot especially in Asia
 Investment
 Today geopolitical challenges are different
 Between 2001 and 2005 producer state face issues
 War in Iraq
 Terrorism in Arabia
 Social issues in Venezuela
 Political issues in Russia and Nigeria

 Risk in geopolitics because Iran owns 15% of gas reserve and 12% of oil reserve.
 Second position after Arabia
 Strategic position and role
 But interested to get nuclear power because fears influence from US and Israel
 Today 3,5 millions of barrels every day.
 If production stops price increases to 80 $

 Instability from Arabia
 Political regime gets weaker because of Islamic networks
 25% of oil resources in the world
 If the production stops : general crisis

 Guinea gulf gets increased production
 Estimations : 25% of total resources in the world
 But face political tensions
 High tensions in Venezuela
 But agreement with Russia last week
 New eras like Sudan and role of China here.

 International companies in a phase with the state policy ?
 International companies don’t control all resources
 Most of the time it depends on the State’s policy (Algeria,
Libya)
 Exxon
 Shell
 BP Amoco
 Total
 Role in geopolitics ex: Total in Guinea and reaction from
US and China

 Role of Russia : political utilization ?
 South stream
 Nabucco and Putine’s strategy last week
 Strategy about Nabucco
 Avoiding Russia but disagreement in EU.
Germany Italy France versus Bulgaria Rumania,
Turkey