INITIATIVES AND
REFERENDUMS
Initiatives and Referendums

Roots of the Movement

How Initiatives Work
 Formal
Mechanisms
 Political Realities

Perspectives on the Process
Roots of the Movement

Coming to power in the wake of scandals at the turn
of the century, “Progressives” were:
 Moderate
Republicans who split with the rest of their
party.
 Businessmen who wanted to bring technical expertise
into government.
 Political reformers.
Roots of the Movement


After successfully prosecuting Abe Ruef, the boss of
San Francisco, Hiram Johnson was elected governor
in 1910.
He brought direct democracy to the constitution in
1911:
 Initiative
 Referendum
 Recall
Roots of the Movement
Direct and Indirect Initiative
States with initiative provisions
(27)
States without initiative provisions (23)
Roots of the Movement

What explains the peculiar geography of direct
democracy?
 Progressives
backed it in states where they agreed with
the median voter (few Catholics, few poor farmers) and
where the median voter was out of power.
 The same year that California gave “power to the
people,” we imposed a literacy test at the polls.
Roots of the Movement

How does California’s direct democracy differ from
other states?
 Placing
an initiative on the ballot is relatively easy
here.
 California’s
initiatives are binding and the legislature
cannot amend them.
 Especially
since 1978, we use the process much more
than most states.
How Initiatives Work:
Formal Mechanisms

Basic definitions.
 An
initiative is a proposal for a new statute or
constitutional provision that is wholly drafted by a
citizen and voted on by the state electorate.
A
petition referendum delays and puts up for vote a law
passed by the legislature and signed by the governor.
How Initiatives Work:
Formal Mechanisms

A compulsory referendum is a constitutional amendment
or a bond that 2/3 of the Assembly and Senate put on
the ballot.
 These
are consensus issues that generate campaigns
costing only $300,000 and pass 69% of the time.
 Initiatives
are contentious issues that generate $7.4
million in spending on average and most of them fail.
How Initiatives Work:
Formal Mechanisms







Step #1: Circulation. All it takes is an idea and
$200 to officially register to circulate an initiative
for 150 days.
12-0018 - "The California Residents College Accessibility and Affordability Act of 2014"
1225. Marriage. Elimination of Domestic Partnership Rights. Initiative Constitutional
Amendment. ADDED to Initiatives in Circulation.
06-0031. "The Thomas Lomax Taxpayers Protection Act" ADDED to Initiatives Pending at the
Attorney General's Office.
06-0032. "Save Our License Initiative" ADDED to Initiatives Pending at the Attorney General's
Office.
06-0033. "Legislative Pay." ADDED to Initiatives Pending at the Attorney General's Office.
As of January 9, 2013, there was one initiative circulating, 3 pending with the AG’s office, and
5 had recently failed to qualify
How Initiatives Work:
Formal Mechanisms

Step #2. Qualification. Requires signatures equal
to X% of voters in the last gubernatorial race.
 Constitutional
Initiative: 8% or 807,615
 Statutory Initiative: 5% or 504,760
 Petition Referendum: 5% or 504,760
How Initiatives Work:
Formal Mechanisms

Step #3. Vote. It takes a simple majority to
approve, and an initiative can only be undone by
another initiative
Passage Rate of California Initiatives
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1910s 1920s 1930s 1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010 Total
How Initiatives Work:
Practical Realities

First Law of Initiative Qualification: Without $1-2
million, you cannot get anything on the ballot, no
matter how popular.
 Example.
Even the furor over the killing of Polly Klass
by career criminal Richard Allen Davis did not provide
enough signatures to qualify 1994’s Proposition 184,
“Three Strikes and You’re Out.”
How Initiatives Work:
Practical Realities

Second Law of Init. Qualification: If you have $1-2
million, you can get absolutely anything on the ballot,
no matter how wacky.
 Example.
Proposition 6, “The Prohibition of Horse
Slaughter and Sale of Horsemeat for Human
Consumption Act of 1998,” qualified and passed.
The Sad Eyed Arab...
Too Bad Nobody
How Initiatives Work:
Practical Realities

Big Money


In 2008 and 2010, a total of $711 million was spent for and
against initiatives, with corporations spending $154 million
and labor spending $61 million. Prop. 8 saw $104 million in
spending.
Money Matters

Analysis of all initiatives from 1976-2004 shows that
spending $100,000 either for or against an initiative changes
its chances of passing by 1%.
How Initiatives Work:
Practical Realities

Election Trends.
 About
two thirds of initiatives lose, but proponents are
doing a bit better lately.
 The
more people learn about an initiative, the less they
like it:
 Only
two initiatives have passed when they originally polled
under 50%.
 Rule of thumb is that if an item doesn’t poll at 80%, leave it
out of your initiative package
How Initiatives Work:
Practical Realities
Change in Support for Initiatives During Campaigns, 1998-2004 elections
60
55.4
50
51.1
50.2
40.2
40
Support Spending
More Than Doubles
Opposition
Spending (16
initiatives)
Opposition
Spending More
Than Doubles
Support Spending
(11 initiatives)
30
20
10
0
Initial Poll Support
Election Day Support
Perspectives on the Process

How do voters make their choices?
 Nobody
reads the entire 350 page ballot pamphlet or
initiative texts.
 But the big money spent on initiatives does provide
political information.
 As UCSD’s Skip Lupia showed, people make decisions
that reflect their true preferences by following cues
from supporters and opponents.
 1/3
are “encyclopedias”
 1/3 follow shortcuts
 1/3 no very little
Perspectives on the Process

UCSD’s Mike Binder conducted five exit polls to look
at how that last 1/3 of voters who are confused
vote:
 Contrary
to conventional wisdom, they do not obstain or
always vote “no.”
 They roll the dice and cast a vote, often making an
error based on their policy preferences.
 Their errors are random and cancel out. People get it
wrong, but the system gets it right.
Perspectives on the Process

Is there any room for compromise?
 An
initiative is a take it or leave it offer, leaving voters
with only a choice between the status quo and the
proposal.
 They
are almost always policy changes too extreme for
the legislature to pass.
 Many
states for the legislature to work with initiative
authors before the ballot.
Discussion Questions



Eugene Lee presents a typology of initiatives. Are
some types more legitimate than others?
Does the fact that all initiatives rely on an “initiative
industry” of paid signature gatherers matter?
Are voters sufficiently informed to make good
decisions on ballot propositions. Do television ads
hurt or help?