The Progressive Movement I:
Initiatives and Referendums
The Progressive Movement II:
Initiatives and Referendums

Roots of the Movement
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How Initiatives Work

Perspectives on the Process
• Formal Mechanisms
• Political Realities
Roots of the Movement

Coming to power in the wake of
scandals at the turn of the century,
“Progressives” were:
• Moderate Republicans who split with the
rest of their party.
• Businessmen who wanted to bring
technical expertise into government.
• Political reformers.
Roots of the Movement


After successfully prosecuting Abe
Ruef, the boss of San Francisco,
Hiram Johnson was elected governor
in 1910.
He brought direct democracy to the
constitution in 1911:
• Initiative
• Referendum
• Recall
Roots of the Movement
Direct and Indirect Initiative
States with initiative provisions
(27)
States without initiative provisions (23)
Roots of the Movement

What explains the peculiar geography
of direct democracy?
• Progressives backed it in states where
they agreed with the median voter (few
Catholics, few poor farmers) and where
the median voter was out of power.
• The same year that California gave
“power to the people,” we imposed a
literacy test at the polls.
Roots of the Movement

How does California’s direct
democracy differ from other states?
• Placing an initiative on the ballot is
relatively easy here.
• California’s initiatives are binding and
the legislature cannot amend them.
• Especially since 1978, we use the
process much more than most states.
How Initiatives Work:
Formal Mechanisms

Basic definitions.
• An initiative is a proposal for a new
statute or constitutional provision that is
wholly drafted by a citizen and voted on
by the state electorate.
• A petition referendum delays and puts up
for vote a law passed by the legislature
and signed by the governor.
How Initiatives Work:
Formal Mechanisms

A compulsory referendum is a constitutional
amendment or a bond that 2/3 of the
Assembly and Senate put on the ballot.
• These are consensus issues that generate
campaigns costing only $300,000 and pass
69% of the time.
• Initiatives are contentious issues that
generate $7.4 million in spending on average
and most of them fail.
How Initiatives Work:
Formal Mechanisms
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Step #1: Circulation. All it takes is an
idea and $200 to officially register to
circulate an initiative for 150 days.
1225. Marriage. Elimination of Domestic Partnership Rights. Initiative
Constitutional Amendment. ADDED to Initiatives in Circulation.
06-0031. "The Thomas Lomax Taxpayers Protection Act" ADDED to
Initiatives Pending at the Attorney General's Office.
06-0032. "Save Our License Initiative" ADDED to Initiatives Pending at the
Attorney General's Office.
06-0033. "Legislative Pay." ADDED to Initiatives Pending at the Attorney
General's Office.
As of Aug 1, 2006, 13 initiatives qualified for the November 7, 2006 ballot,
14 failed, and 14 are circulating for qualification in 2008.
How Initiatives Work:
Formal Mechanisms

Step #2. Qualification. Requires
signatures equal to X% of voters in
the last gubernatorial race.
• Constitutional Initiative: 8% or 753,079
• Statutory Initiative: 5% or 470,675
• Petition Referendum: 5% or 470,675
How Initiatives Work:
Formal Mechanisms

Step #3. Vote. It takes a simple
majority to approve, and an initiative
can only be undone by another init.
Passage Rate of California Initiatives
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
2000s
2010
Total
How Initiatives Work:
Practical Realities

First Law of Initiative Qualification:
Without $1-2 million, you cannot get
anything on the ballot, no matter how
popular.
• Example. Even the furor over the killing
of Polly Klass by career criminal Richard
Allen Davis did not provide enough
signatures to qualify 1994’s Proposition
184, “Three Strikes and You’re Out.”
How Initiatives Work:
Practical Realities

Second Law of Init. Qualification: If
you have $1-2 million, you can get
absolutely anything on the ballot, no
matter how wacky.
• Example. Proposition 6, “The Prohibition
of Horse Slaughter and Sale of Horsemeat
for Human Consumption Act of 1998,”
The Sad Eyed Arab...
qualified and passed.
Too Bad Nobody
How Initiatives Work:
Practical Realities

Big Money
• The 2005 special election generated $60 million
in spending for the four Schwarzenegger
propositions and $120 million against them. The
record remain the $92 million spent on Prop. 5 in
1998 by tribes and Vegas

Money Matters
• Analysis of all initiatives from 1976-2004 shows
that spending $100,000 either for or against an
initiative changes its chances of passing by 1%.
How Initiatives Work:
Practical Realities

Election Trends.
• About two thirds of initiatives lose, but
proponents are doing a bit better lately.
• The more people learn about an
initiative, the less they like it:
• Only two initiatives have passed when they
originally polled under 50%.
• Rule of thumb is that if an item doesn’t poll
at 80%, leave it out of your initiative package
How Initiatives Work:
Practical Realities
Change in Support for Initiatives During Campaigns, 1998-2004 elections
60
55.4
50
51.1
50.2
40.2
40
Support Spending
More Than Doubles
Opposition
Spending (16
initiatives)
Opposition
Spending More
Than Doubles
Support Spending
(11 initiatives)
30
20
10
0
Initial Poll Support
Election Day Support
Perspectives on the Process

How do voters make their choices?
• Nobody reads the entire 350 page ballot
pamphlet or initiative texts.
• But the big money spent on initiatives
does provide political information.
• As UCSD’s Skip Lupia showed, people
make decisions that reflect their true
preferences by following cues from
supporters and opponents.
Perspectives on the Process

Is there any room for compromise?
• An initiative is a take it or leave it offer,
leaving voters with only a choice between
the status quo and the proposal.
• They are almost always policy changes
too extreme for the legislature to pass.
• Many states for the legislature to work
with initiative authors before the ballot.
Discussion Questions
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Eugene Lee presents a typology of
initiatives. Are some types more legitimate
than others?
Does the fact that all initiatives rely on an
“initiative industry” of paid signature
gatherers matter?
Are voters sufficiently informed to make
good decisions on ballot propositions. Do
television ads hurt or help?