POPULATION ISSUES
Define demographics
Population has grown from 1 billion in 1800
to over 7 billion today.
75% of the world’s population lives in LDC’s
90% of the world’s population lives above the
equator.
People are living longer in virtually all
countries. Why?
The revolutions, agricultural &
Medical
Arithmetic (linear) growth:
2,4,6,8,10,12, etc….
Exponential growth: 2,4,8,16,32,64,128,
etc….
Population grows exponentially.
Doubling
time
The number of years it takes for a population
to double.
At a rate of 3% growth per year, a
population will double in 25
years.
Replacement rate is
2.1%
For now and the foreseeable future, most live in Africa and
Asia.
Technology has allowed people to adapt to natural constraints
in growth.
First Agricultural (Neolithic) Revolution
Second Agricultural
Revolution
Industrial Revolution
Third Agricultural Revolution
(Green Revolution)
When does a country become
overpopulated?
When it exceeds its carrying
capacity (when it can’t feed
its people.)
Terminology:
Rate of natural increase
Crude birth rate minus
crude death rate (+ immigration
Crude birth rate
Infant mortality rate
Affected by economic development
(healthcare, employment, nutrition,
education.)
Crude death rate
Fertility rate
The better women are educated, the lower the RNI.
Gender empowerment
Cultural
traditions:
Public
policy:
Women are expected to
stay home and raise
children.
China, India,
France
How is the One Baby Policy
affecting China’s future?
Population Sustainability
MDC’s make up around 25%
of the world’s population, yet
use 75% of the world’s
resources.
The percentage of the world’s
surface that is fit or habitation
is called the “ecumene.”
Population density:
Arithmetic
density
The heaviest
populated
regions.
Is population
density a good
gauge for
development?
Physiological density
Agricultural (arable)
density
Demographic Transition
Model
Stage I: high birth rate,
high death rate, little
growth.
This describes most of
human history.
Stage II: high birth rate, low death
rate.
MDC’s & LDC’s?
Industrial and medical
revolution.
Stage III: low birth rate,
low death rate.
A generally balanced
population.
Stage IV: lower birth
rate, low death rate.
Population is not being
replaced, population decline.
Thomas Malthus
Economist writing at the turn of the
18th/19th centuries, Malthus predicted
dire consequences as the population
began to boom. He stated the
population would soon exceed the food
supply. Based on what he saw in
Britain during the Industrial Revolution.
What did he not account for?
Medical
Revolution
Note: if there is no majority group but multiple
minorities, the group with the highest growth rate
will eventually become the majority and population
growth will mirror their growth.
Neo-Malthusians:
They are predicting
the population will
outstrip resources.
Population pyramids
Displays the gender and age of age groups.
Which are
LDC’s, which
are MDC’s?
Give an example
of a country
(region) that
would match
each pyramid.
You can predict trends for
the future.
Population composition matters.
The age structure of a population with 50% young
people has a vastly different set of problems in the
future as opposed to a country with a majority of older
people.
Several developing countries, India and China in
particular, have issues with the male/female
imbalance.
Population pyramid -- Japan and
China today
Japan 2013
Stage IV
Stage III or IV?
Demographic momentum
The time (process) it takes for a population to begin to
drop even after the birth rate has been reduced.
Moving
population
pyramid of
China
Think of the time it takes a car to stop after you
have applied the brakes.
What does this pyramid imply economically
regarding the Chinese population in Indonesia?
Dependency ratio
The number in the population
that is below 15 and over 65
(the dependants.)
Remember, the population in many MDC’s is declining,
while most of the population growth in the world is
coming in LDC’s.
30 d N
How will this affect: poverty, development, migration,
culture, resources, conflict?
IF YOU LEARNED ONLY SIX THINGS IN THIS CHAPTER ...
1. The Demographic Transition Model is a tool demographers use to
categorize countries' population growth rates and economic structures.
The model analyzes crude birth rates, crude death rates, and total
population trends in a society at a given point of time. Once a country
moves into the next stage of the model, it cannot go back to previous
stages, unless afflicted by nuclear war or another horrific calamity.
2. British economist Thomas Malthus coined the term overpopulation in the
late 1700s. Malthus suggested that the world's population was growing
faster than the rate of food production, and as a result, mass starvation
would occur. Malthus was correct in his assumption about world
population increase but was incorrect in his assessment of agriculture's
inability to produce sufficient food.
3. The world's population is growing exponentially. Most of the growth is
occurring in less developed countries. More developed countries are
either at or near zero population growth. Some Eastern European
countries are actually losing some of their population.
4. Population pyramids show the age and sex demographics of a
particular country, city, or neighborhood. Inverted pyramids indicate a
large percentage of elderly persons in the community. A large base
indicates a lot of children in the society and could indicate a less
developed country.
Migration
5. There are three primary push and pull factors: economic, political, and
environmental. Each of these reasons has caused millions of people to
move.
6. Refugees voluntarily leave an area for fear of death or persecution.
Forced migrants are forced by the government to move. Forced migrants
can suffer the same fate as refugees if they do not obey the government
mandate for them to relocate.