PACS 4500
Senior Seminar in
Peace and Conflict Studies
Guy Burgess
Co-Director
Conflict Information Consortium, University of Colorado
UCB 580, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0580, (303) 492-1635
burgess@colorado.edu
Copyright © 2014 Guy Burgess and Heidi Burgess
Readings, Reflections
Project Topic
MOOS Supplemental Materials Blog
The New Beyond Intractability
The New Beyond Intractability
The New Beyond Intractability
The New Beyond Intractability
The New Beyond Intractability
The Specter for a Shia/Sunni War
The Iranian / Saudi War
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/01/11/what-would-a-saudi-iran-war-look-like-dont-look-now-but-it-is-already-here/
Internal Divisions
http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2015/09/02/whats-the-greatest-threat-to-us-national-security/the-biggestthreat-to-the-us-are-internal-divisions-11
Brooks / Cruz
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/12/opinion/the-brutalism-of-ted-cruz.html
Brooks Reaction
https://www.washingtonpost.com/
news/morningmix/wp/2016/01/14/davidbrookss-choice-words-on-cruzsatanic-pagan-draw-fire-and-alittle-brimstone
Trump
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/14/opinion/campaign-stops/why-i-will-never-vote-for-donaldtrump.html?ref=opinion&_r=0
Uninformed / Misinformed
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-supporters-appear-to-be-misinformed-not-uninformed/
Right Wing Populism
http://billmoyers.com/story/dont-let-trump-fool-you-right-wing-populism-is-the-new-normal/
Is This the Beginning of Fascism?
http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/09/opinions/bergen-is-trump-fascist/index.html
Revolt of the Anxious Class
http://robertreich.org/post/135202830270
The Discarded Middle Class Problem
http://mobile.nytimes.com/blogs/krugman/2015/01/01/recent-history-in-one-chart
Stable Hierarchical Society
Developing World
Communism
New Opportunities
Developed World
Facism
Unneeded Workers
Today’s Focus
Planning Conference Exercise
Destructive Conflict:
A “Climate Change-class” Problem
Open Letter
Possible Alliance Project
Open Public Conference
Destructive Conflict: As Big a Threat
as “Climate Change”
Private Planning Conference
“Off-the-Grid” Conference Center
Questions to Consider
 Are poor conflict handling skills really a global
warming-class problem?
 Who should be involved? Names? Perspectives?
Strategies?
 What are the big trends that the Conference should
consider?
 Positive trends to encourage?
 Negative trends to limit?
 What are the formal and informal decision points
leading to those trends that need to be examined for
problematic conflict dynamics.
 What strategies should be considered for limiting
problematic dynamics?
A Few Things You Might
Want to Consider
Threat #1: Violence
Killed
Wounded
Refugees
Survivors
Destruction
Expenditures
Threat #2:
Political Tyranny
Divide and Conquer
Threat #3:
Failed Revolutions
Need
Consensus
on PostRevolutionary
Govt.
The Exchange of Elites Problem
Threat #4:
Economic Tyranny / Plutocracy
The Robber Barons
Late 19th Century
Soft Tyranny
The .01% of the 1%
The Robber Barons
Early 21st Century
Threat #5:
Failed & Fragile States
• Social
– Demographic pressures
– Refugee movement
– Human flight
– Vengeance seeking
• Economic
• Political
– Delegitimization of the state
– Deterioration of public
services
– Out of control security
apparatus
– Group-based inequality
– Widespread violations of
human rights
– Economic decline
– Outside intervention
http://www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2013/06/
24/2013_failed_states_interactive_map?utm_
source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaig
n=the-2013-failed-states-index-interactivemap-and-rankings
Threat #6:
“Perfect Storm” Conflicts
Threat #7:
Failed Problem-Solving
Also,
• Unemployment
• Infectious Disease
• Crime
• …
“Second Order” Conflict Problems
Underlying These Threats …
… and (if we work harder at them) Conflict
Solutions
Political “Gridlock”
Political Polarization
http://www.pewresearch.org/files/2014/12/PP-2014-06-12-polarization-0-05.png
The New Class Conflict
Higher Order Moore’s Law
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/01/12/opinion/sunday/fri
edman-if-i-had-a-hammer.html
Cultural Lag
W. F. Ogburn
Groups
Take, Share E-Notes
Row 4
3
Row 4
Row 3
1
Row 2
Row 1
Row 3
2
Row 2
Row 1
4
Questions to Consider
 Are poor conflict handling skills really a global
warming-class problem?
 Who should be involved? Names? Perspectives?
Strategies?
 What are the big trends that the Conference should
consider?
 Positive trends to encourage?
 Negative trends to limit?
 What are the formal and informal decision points
leading to those trends that need to be examined for
problematic conflict dynamics.
 What strategies should be considered for limiting
problematic dynamics?
Questions to Consider
 Are poor conflict handling skills really a global
warming-class problem?
 Who should be involved? Names? Perspectives?
Strategies?
 What are the big trends that the Conference should
consider?
 Positive trends to encourage?
 Negative trends to limit?
 What are the formal and informal decision points
leading to those trends that need to be examined for
problematic conflict dynamics.
 What strategies should be considered for limiting
problematic dynamics?