Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
"Unlike the plagues of the dark ages or
contemporary diseases (which) we do not yet
understand, the modern plague of overpopulation is
soluble by means we have discovered and with
resources we possess. What is lacking is not
sufficient knowledge of the solution, but universal
consciousness of the gravity of the problem and the
education of the billions who are its victims."
Acceptance Speech: Margaret Sanger Award in
Human Rights, 1966
World Population Growth Through History
Billions
12
11
2100
10
9
8 Old
Stone
7 Age
New Stone Age
Bronze
Age
Iron
Age
6
Modern
Age
Middle
Ages
2000
Future
5
4
1975
3
1950
2
1
Black Death—The Plague
1900
1800
1+ million 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D. A.D.
years B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. B.C. 1 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000
Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).
•
World
Now
Adding
80
Census Bureau has historically
MillionPopulation
People/Yr
underpredicted
Growth – or
will this decline be because of
environmental meltdown?
Population Growth Rates by
Country
• Low Growth Rates
― Austria (0.09%), Czech Rep. (-0.06%), Croatia (-0.03%),
Japan (0.02%), the EU (0.15%), Former Soviet Blocs (neg.),
Botswana (-0.04%)
• High Growth Rates
― Burundi (3.7%), Congo (3.0%), Mali (2.63%), Afghanistan
(2.7%), Angola (2.5%), Saudia Arabia (2.2%), Syria (2.3%)
• Lower Growth Rates but Large Populations
― China (0.6%), India (1.4%), U.S. (1.2%),
Indonesia (1.4%), Brazil (1.0%), Bangladesh (2.1%),
Pakistan (2.1%), Russia (-0.37%), Nigeria (2.4%),
Japan (0.02%)
Exponential Growth
Doubling time(yrs) = 70/P
P = %growth per year
For India, P =1.4%
So, at present rate of pop increase, India’s
pop will grow from 1 to 2 billion by 2050.
(The total world pop in 1950 was 2.5 billion.)
During the 1990s, every one
of the 50 states increased in
population, the first time this
has ever happened
In total, 33 million people were
added to the USA, the largest
ever decadal increase
U.S. Population Growth:
Outstripping Census Estimates
• Based on the 1990 Census and their yearly estimates, the U.S.
Census Bureau predicted an increase from 249 to 275 million
Residents by the Year 2000. They were “only” off by 7 million
people, as 282 million were counted.
• This gave us a growth rate of more than 13% for the decade
(1.25%/yr), above the world average and the highest growth
rate of any developed nation.
• This puts us close to the “High” Scenario for U.S. Population
Projections for the Rest of this Century (next page) 
• Immigration is now responsible for 70% of U.S. Population
Growth (this includes U.S. born children of immigrants)
Census Bureau Projections
for U.S. Population
High Migration Rates Currently Have Us Near the “High” Line
U.S. Population Projections: Low,
No Migration, Middle, and High
1200
U.S. Population
(millions)
•
High
1000
800
600
Middle with
migration
400
Middle w/o
migration
200
Low
0
1990
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Nat Pop Proj, 1999
2010
2030
2050
Year
2070
2090
Public Policy Institute of
California:
*****************************
Fall 2004 survey of 2500
California Adults in English,
Spanish, Chinese, Korean,
Vietnamese
What about traffic congestion
on freeways and major roads?
Big problem: 59%
Somewhat of a problem: 26%
How about population growth
and development?
Big problem: 35%
Somewhat of a problem: 33%
Availability of housing that you
can afford?
Big problem: 55%
Somewhat of a problem: 23%
A zillion lists have popped up
recently advising us how to
conserve energy & resources
But traffic, congestion, and affordable
housing issues are not going to get any
better even if everyone switches to
driving a Toyota Prius instead of an SUV
-- the freeways will be just as crowded
A very short quiz on: just how
crowded is California??
Question 1: what was the #1
county in the entire USA in the late
1940s in terms of $ value of
agricultural production?
Question 2:
Which is more densely populated (has
more people per square mile):
California or Europe?
Cali forni a Pop ulation Gro wth 18 50-20 00
40 ,000 ,000
30 ,000 ,000
20 ,000 ,000
10 ,000 ,000
0
18 50 18 60 18 70 18 80 18 90 19 00 19 10 19 20 19 30 19 40 19 50 19 60 19 70 19 80 19 90 20 00
Ye ar
California Popu lati on Pro jection s 20 00-20 50
60,000,000
50,000,000
40,000,000
30,000,000
200 0
201 0
202 0
203 0
204 0
205 0
Yea r
“These population projections depict only one possible course of future population change,
i.e., the one reflecting recent trends in fertility, mortality, and migration. These projections do
not necessarily show what is most desirable but rather what can be reasonably expected if
current trends continue until the year 2050.”
-- California Department of Finance, Demographic Research Unit, 2004. (emphasis added)
Some effects of population growth:
Traffic—California contains 5 of the top 12 U.S. cities
with worst travel mobility (annual delay per traveler)
#1 Los Angeles/Long Beach/Santa Ana
#2 San Francisco/Oakland
#9 Riverside
#11 San Jose
#12 San Diego
Air Pollution—37 of California’s 58 counties are in
Non-Attainment Status for regulated air pollutants.
Farmland Loss—farmland is being converted to urban
development at the rate of 50,000 acres per year.
Rare and Threatened Species
California rank among the states
i.
First in biodiversity (6,717 species)
ii.
First in endemic species (1,295)
iii. Second in percentage of species at risk
(28.5%)
iv. Third in extinct species (53)
Table 1. Human-caused reductions in westside
California plant communities and formations
(after Noss and Peters 1995).
“Habitat loss due to population growth presents the single greatest problem
facing native plants and animals in California.”
--California Department of Fish and Game, Atlas of the Biodiversity of
California, 2003.
A CAPS study shows that, in
recent decades, more than
90% of California’s population
increase is due to immigrants
and their U.S. born children
Inconvenient Truths
• The US is the largest contributor of any country to greenhouse gases
(although, unfortunately, China will be overtaking us pretty soon).
• “An Inconvenient Truth” Website – Take Action greenhouse gas, is
responsible more than any other country for : Fluorescent light bulbs,
thermostats, HVAC filters, EnergyStar appliances, water heaters, hot
water, clotheslines, vampire electronics, recycle, plant a tree, insulate
home, carpool, check your tires, fly less. – these are all good ideas.
Inexplicably, having two children or less is not on the list!
• Per capita CO2 emissions track population growth remarkably well, so
doing all of the above will not make a significant impact in our global
warming problem --
unless we also stabilize our population
To slow U.S. growth:
Approximately 2/3 of U.S. growth is a result of immigration (1.6
million immigrants + 800,000 births to immigrants out of annual
growth of 3.3 million), therefore reducing immigration is the
single most effective policy to slow U.S. growth.
To slow California growth:
Over 90% of California growth is a result of immigration
(250,000 immigrants +250,000 births to immigrants out of annual
growth of 550,000), therefore reducing immigration is the single
most effective policy choice to slow California growth.
Senator Gaylord Nelson,
Founder of Earthday:
“In this country it’s phony to say
‘I’m for the environment’, but not
for limiting immigration.”
China & the USA: the
biosphere’s worst enemies
Converging together to the same
destructive destiny
China started with a big population and a
low per capita environmental impact,
that is now rapidly increasing.
The USA started with a big per capita
impact and a small population, that, due
to massive immigration, is now rapidly
increasing.
Mao Zedong: “Every mouth is
born with two hands attached”
A very widespread, present policy, debate in
the USA: “Do immigrants add more to
society than they cost society?”
*************************************************
The two quotations are, for all practical
purposes, operationally equivalent: their
focus is short-term and, for China,
demonstrably disastrous in the long term.
The great environmental
economist, Prof. Herman Daly
warned:
We are treating the planet as if it were a
business in liquidation.
BZ’s personal “favorite” example is the
overfishing and trashing of the oceans, the
dynamiting of coral reefs, etc. The late
Jacques Cousteau: “The oceans are dying”
Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
"Unlike the plagues of the dark ages or
contemporary diseases (which) we do not yet
understand, the modern plague of overpopulation is
soluble by means we have discovered and with
resources we possess. What is lacking is not
sufficient knowledge of the solution, but universal
consciousness of the gravity of the problem and the
education of the billions who are its victims."
Acceptance Speech: Margaret Sanger Award in
Human Rights, 1966
Albert Einstein:
Those who have the privilege to know,
have the duty to act
Lists of things people can do to
mitigate global warming, but that
completely ignore overpopulation:
Sierra Club
Audubon Society
Al Gore’s list
NRDC
Union of Concerned Scientists
Environmental Defense
Outside Magazine’s Green Issue
Time’s Global Warming Survival Guide
Calif. Gov. Ronald Reagan
(1974)
“Our country and state have a special obligation
to work toward stabilization of our own
population so as to credibly lead other parts of
the world toward population stabilization.”
President Dwight D.
Eisenhower:
“Whatever America hopes to bring to pass in the
world must first come to pass in the heart of
America.”
• CO2 emissions have been tracking population growth for
decades.
• Biofuels can’t do much for a country experiencing rapid
population growth. (2006 U of Minnesota study shows
that all of our corn and soybeans would supply 12 and 6%
of our gasoline and diesel oil, respectively. U.S.
population growth would completely negate that in less
than 10 years.)
• California’s alternative fuels plan (Jan 2007) calls for a
25% reduction in CO2 emissions (to 1990 levels) by 2020
– all while CA population is projected to grow by 48%
from 1990 levels -- with virtually 100% of that due to
immigration.
California Total Energy Use vs Population (1960-2003)
9,000.0
8,000.0
Trillion BTUs
7,000.0
6,000.0
5,000.0
y = 0.0002x + 1109.2
2
R = 0.8805
4,000.0
3,000.0
2,000.0
1,000.0
0.0
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
Population
Coefficient of Determination (R2) = 0.8805. Over 88% of the variability
around the straight line is explained by the population variable.
35,000,000
California Greenhouse Gas Emissions vs Population (1990-2002)
Million Metric Tons CO2equivalents
510.0
500.0
490.0
480.0
470.0
460.0
y = 1E-05x - 11.158
450.0
2
R = 0.8167
440.0
430.0
420.0
410.0
29,000,000
30,000,000
31,000,000
32,000,000
33,000,000
34,000,000
35,000,000
Population
Coefficient of Determination (R2) = 0.8167. Over 81% of the variability around the
straight line is explained by the population variable.
36,000,000