F/SUPT HERBERT B CEZAR
Director
Fire National Training Institute (FNTI)
It is the premeditated, threatened, actual use of
violence, force, or by any other means of destruction
perpetrated against person/s, property/ies, or the
environment.
It is committed by any person or group of
persons, whether natural or juridical, who, with
intent to create or sow danger, panic, fear or chaos
to the general public or a group of persons or
particular person, or to coerce or intimidate the
government to do or to abstain from doing an act.
Threatening or causing death or serious bodily harm (on
person or persons);
Threatening or causing serious risk to health or safely of (the
public or any segment of the public;
Threatening or causing substantial damage or wanton
destruction or resorting to arson on critical infrastructure or
property, public or private;
Threatening or causing serious interference with or serious
disruption of an essential service, facility or system, whether
public or private, other than a result of lawful advocacy,
protest, dissent or stoppage of work;
Hijacking or threatening to hijack any kind of aircraft, electric
or railroad train, locomotive, passenger bus or oilier means of
mass transportation, or public conveyance, or piracy of ship or
sea vessel;
Taking or threatening to kidnap or deprive any
person of his/her liberty;
Assassinating or threatening to assassinate, or
kidnapping or threatening to kidnap the President or
the Vice President of the Philippines, the President of
the Senate, the Speaker of the Mouse of
Representatives or the Chief Justice of the Supreme
Court;
Killing or violently attacking an internationally
protected person or depriving the liberty of such person
in violation of the Convention on the Protection and
Punishment of Crimes Against Internationally Protected
Persons, including Diplomatic Agents, and oilier
international agreements;
Attacking or threatening to attack the cyberspace, by
destroying the actual machinery of the information and
communication infrastructure, disrupting the information
technology underlying the internet, government or
private networks or systems, or committing any unlawful
act against networks, servers, computers or other
information and communication systems;
Wilfully destroying the natural resources in land, water
and air, such as
forests or marine and mineral
resources, or intentionally causing oil or toxic spillages,
or other similar acts of destruction against the
environment that threatens ecological security;
Unlawfully manufacturing, processing, selling, acquiring,
possessing, using, diverting, supplying or transporting
chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear agents, or
equipment and instruments used in their production,
distribution, release or spread that would endanger
directly or indirectly the safety of one or more individuals,
or to cause mass destruction or great damage to
property; or
Unlawfully manufacturing, selling, acquiring, supplying,
disposing, using or possessing explosives, bombs,
grenades, projectiles, devices or other lethal weapons, or
substances or machinery used or intended to be used for
the manufacture of explosives in furtherance of, or
incident to, or in connection with an act of terrorism
defined herein.
BALI BOMBING
October 2002
WORLD TRADE CENTER
September 2001
2005 Valentine’s Day Bombings
“Mini-9/11 in the Philippines”
Bus exploded into flames
at least 3 persons killed
Bomb detonated
at a bus terminal
1 person killed
Blast hit outside
Gaisano Mall
at least 3 persons killed
SUPERFERRY14 BOMBING
February 2004
“the WORLD's fourth deadliest
terrorist strike since September 11, 2001, and
ASIA's worst
since the Bali bombings of October 2002”.
-TIME MAGAZINE AUGUST 2004
LIST OF BOMBING ACTIVITIES
THAT TRANSPIRED IN 2006
July 11, 2006
Mumbai, India
eight coordinated explosions during the evening rush hour
190+ killed and hundreds injured.
July 10, 2006
Sao Paulo, Brazil
bomb Injures exploded inside a subway train
More than 10 injured
July 5, 2006
Yakhroma, Russia
bomb exploded at a Muslim prayer house
no casualties reported
June 26, 2006
Suicide Attack in Colombo, Sri Lanka
A top Sri Lankan general was killed along with several others
June 24, 2006
Bangkok, Thailand
two bombs exploded near the Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party headquarters
June 23, 2006
Sharif Aguak, Mindanao
bomb exploded near a public market
5+ people killed and 10 injured
June 20, 2006
an explosion that occurred on a Makati street
One injured
June 13, 2006
pillbox bomb exploded inside Camp Bagong Diwa
no reports of injuries
a SWAT van sustained damage
June 11, 2006
Lipa, Batangas
grenade inside a bag exploded outside of a market
at least nine people injured
June 11, 2006
Commonwealth Avenue, Quezon City
homemade bomb exploded near a parked bus
no reports of injuries; bus sustained significant damage
June 11, 2006
Plaza Lawton, Manila
explosion hit a police station
June 9, 2006
Pampanga
grenade attack on the residence of a PGMA supporter
June 6, 2006
Makati City
improvised explosive device detonated
outside the Great Pacific Life Bldg
no reports of injuries
March 29, 2006
Digos City, Davao del Sur
bomb exploded inside a bus
at least 17 people were injured
the bus and three nearby vehicles sustained damages
March 27, 2006
a bomb exploded in Jolo, Sulu
9 people killed, 20 others injured
February 20, 2006
an explosion occurred inside the gates of Malacañang, Manila
no reports of damage or injuries
February 18, 2006
Jolo, Sulu
a bomb exploded at a karaoke bar located several meters from
an army base where US soldiers are participating in joint
exercises with the AFP
1 person killed; 28 others injured
January 30, 2006
Ermita, Manila
a small improvised explosive device detonated in front of the
Court of Appeals Bldg
no reports of damage or injuries
Any inimical act and/or unwanted event,
which may bring about adverse results.
Types of Threats
Typhoon
NATURAL
Volcanic Eruption
Earthquake
Flood
Erosion
MANMADE
TERRORISM
Sabotage
Technical or Financial Fraud
Coup d’ Etat/Rebellion
Labor Strike
War
TECHNOLOGICAL
Plant Breakdown
Breakdown or Failure of
Protective Devices
Environmental Hazards
Subjects of Threats
Nation
Person
Organization
Infrastructures
Community
Key Assets
Operations
Areas of Threats
Transport Terminals
Business Facilities
Public Conveyances
Medical/Health Facilities
Telecom Facility
Emergency Service Facilities
Power Facilities
Road Infrastructures
Water Supply Facilities
Religious Institutions
Government Buildings
Educational Institutions
Movie Houses & Malls
Markets
A condition used to describe
the openness or weakness of a
subject of a threat.
The condition of vulnerability is directly
influenced by the strength or weaknesses
of a security or protective program.
The chance that a given threat
will occur and bring about
adverse consequences.
Importance of a subject of a threat as defined by its nature.
Importance is directed towards:
a. The subject of a threat itself
b. Community and citizenry
c. Any or all aspects of National Security
Tangible
and
intangible
outcome or consequence of a
threat occurrence, such as loss,
injury, disadvantage or gain.
The product of threat probability
and the sum of impact of a threat
occurrence that can be inflicted
against a target of an identified
threat.
The systematic and logical study of a
given threat, its likelihood of occurrence and
the severity of its impact, purposely for the
formulation and implementation of an
effective and efficient security program to
detect, control or prevent losses.
the probability that an undesirable
event or threat may actually take
place
and
inflict
adverse
consequences, including the failure
to achieve goals and objectives.
One is at RISK when:
there is a threat
the threat is probable to occur
consequences if threat occurs
4TH STEP
3RD STEP
2ND STEP
1ST STEP
The 1st Step of Risk Analysis
involves the identification
and profiling of a threat.
Who offers the
threat?
Why the threat?
THREAT
Objectives of the
source of threat?
Likely specific
targets?
Modus Operandi?
Helps in
designing an
effective and
efficient
security or
protective
program.
are specific conditions that
identify a threat. Also, they
directly or indirectly influence
the potential of a threat to exist
or be present.
Criticality or Nature of the Subject of Threat
Internal & External Environment
Historical Incidents/Events
Nature & Criticality of Facility
Operational Significance
Financial or Business Significance
Security Classification
Work or Input-Output
sensitive areas
processes
and
Critical infrastructures and key assets
(plus costs)
Financial Status and Financial Operations
Implications
to
national
economy, politics, etc.
security,
Environment
EXTERNAL
Politico-socio-economic
situations
Geography,
topography,
etc
Demography
Presence of PNP, AFP and
Emergency
Response
Agencies
and
their
capabilities
Presence of sources of
threats in the area
Global Situation
INTERNAL
Structural Design
Landscaping
Facility Occupants
Facility Contents
Security Personnel &
their capabilities
Presence of sources of
threats
inside
the
facility
Organization
Historical Event
Historical
Event
Internal
Incidents
Security Dept
External
Incidents
Government
Private
• Near-miss events
• Actual events
Other Depts
RATING
LEVEL
1 – 2 Very Low
3–4
Low
5–6
Medium
7–8
High
9 – 10
Very High
Example:
RATING
1. The facility provides electricity in entire Luzon.
-
7
2. The facility is located in an NPA-infested area.
-
9
3. The facility was attacked by NPA’s in 2003.
-
8
=
8
Average Threat Potential
The 2nd Step of Risk Analysis
involves the identification and
measurement of
the weaknesses
of
the
existing
security
or
.
protective program of a subject of
a threat, as against the strength
of the same security or protective
program.
Allows risk owners to know the strength of
their existing Security Program, what needs to
be corrected and what more are necessary to
be put in place in defense against an identified
threat.
Vulnerability
directly
influences
the
probability of a threat to actually take place.
WEAK SECURITY
STRONG SECURITY
Increases probability of threat occurrence
Reduces probability of threat occurrence
are specific security conditions
that weakens or strengthens
the security/protective program
of a target of threat.
absence of security or protective measures
inadequacy of security or protective measures
defective security or protective measures
to empirically estimate the vulnerability of a target of threat.
RATING
Example:
LEVEL
1–2
Very Low
3–4
Low
5–6
Medium
7–8
High
9 – 10
Very High
RATING
1. No security guards are employed.
-
7
2. Perimeter fence is below standard of 8 feet.
-
9
3. Personnel Control Policy is not strictly enforced.
-
8
Average Vulnerability
=
8
The 3rd Step of Risk Analysis
The probability that an
identified threat is going
to actually take place is
measured using empirical
parameters and tool.
specific conditions that
influence the probable
occurrence
of
an
identified threat.
Threat Factors (Threat Potential)
Vulnerability Factors
PROBABILITY
=
Average Rated
Threat Factors
X
Average Rated
Vulnerability Factors
100
EXAMPLE: Probability of Terrorist Attack to
occur
THREAT FACTORS
RATIN
VULNERABILITY
G
RATI
NG
1. Facility located in NPA
-
7
1. Facility does not have
-
9
2
.
-
8
2
.
-
7
=
8
area
Facility already
attacked once
AVERAGE =
7.5
fence
PROBABILITY
=
PROBABILITY
=
Facility does not have
guards
7.5
XAVERAGE
8.0
100
0.60 or 60%
PROBABILI
TY
LEVEL
0.00
Improbable
0.01 - 0.20
Very Low
0.21 - 0.40
Low
0.41 - 0.60
Moderate
0.61 - 0.80
High
0.81 - 1.00
Virtually
Certain
DESCRIPTION
Given no changes, threat
will not occur.
Least chance of
occurrence.
Occurrence is less likely.
There is 50:50 chance
of occurrence.
Occurrence is much
greater.
Given no changes, threat
will certainly occur.
The 4th Step of Risk Analysis
The possible impact of a
threat occurrence and
their
severity
are
identified and measured.
GENERAL IMPACT
Failure to achieve organizational goals &
objectives
Loss of lives
Destruction or loss of infrastructures &
key assets
Destruction,
disruption
or
loss
of
systems/operations
Income losses
Loss of information and competitive edge
Loss of image, goodwill and reputation
Adverse implications to all or any aspects
of National Security
OTHER IMPACTS THAT NEED
TO BE CONSIDERED
Geographic dispersion of potential damages
Temporal extension of potential damages
Requirements of restoring the situation to the
state before the damages occurred (i.e.,
reforestation and detoxification of water)
Violation of individual, social or cultural
interests and values generating social
conflicts and psychological reactions from
those who feel inflicted by the risk
consequences systems/operations
PUTTING VALUE TO IMPACT
Quantitative
Lives lost & Cost
Downtime period & cost
Lost income
Replacement Cost
Restoration Cost
Cost of property destroyed
Qualitative
Reputation
Goodwill
Patronage loss
Morale loss
Effects to others
IMPACT
SEVERITY
=
Average (Quantitative
+
Qualitative)
X
SAMPLE CASE
QUANTITATIVE
RATING
1.
Building destruction worth P10.0M -
5
2.
Income loss/day equal to P2.0M
-
4
3.
Death & injuries
-
5
QUALITATIVE
1.
Stoppage of services
-
5
2.
Loss of reputation/image
-
4
3.
Patronage loss
-
5
AVERAGE IMPACT/LOSS RATING =
4.70
PROBABILITY =
0.60
IMPACT
SEVERITY
=
(14
+
6
14)
X
0.60 = 3.0
Probability
RATI
NG
1
2
3
4
LEVEL
DESCRIPTION
Improbab
Effect is insignificant.
le
Can be covered by normal contingency
services.
Low
Short discontinuance of operation.
Noticeable impact on earnings.
Moderate
Requires attention of top management.
Very
Serious
Major impact on balance sheet
account.
Requires changes in investment policy.
Threat Potential
Rating
8.00
Threat
TERRORIST
ATTACK
Level: HIGH
Vulnerability
Rating
Threat Probability
Impact
0.60
4.70
Level: MODERATE
Level: FATAL
8.00
Level: HIGH
Impact Severity
3.00
Level: MODERATE
In a complex and rapidly
changing world, the day can
instantly turn from friendly
to hostile in a least expected
time and with serious
consequence …
…thus, constantly
“penetrating the fog of the
future”, and managing the
dangers beyond is a vital
priority for all of us!
F SR/SUPT HERBERT B CEZAR
Director
Fire National Training Institute (FNTI)