Index
Index ................................................................................................................................................ 1
1ac ................................................................................................................................................... 3
Contention 1: The Status Quo ..................................................................................................... 4
Plan .............................................................................................................................................. 5
Contention Two: Warming .......................................................................................................... 6
Contention Three: Economy...................................................................................................... 11
Contention Four: Solvency ........................................................................................................ 15
Warming Advantage ...................................................................................................................... 17
SQ Desal Fails – Laundry List ..................................................................................................... 18
SQ Desal Fails – GHG Emissions................................................................................................. 19
SQ Desal Fails – Brine ................................................................................................................ 21
Solvency – Solar Desal Key ........................................................................................................ 22
Solvency – Gov’t Regulation ...................................................................................................... 24
Warming ! UQ – Real + Anthropogenic ..................................................................................... 25
Warming Impacts – EXTN and Biodiversity ............................................................................... 27
Warming – A2: Skeptics ............................................................................................................. 30
Economy Advantage ...................................................................................................................... 33
UQ – Econ Down Now ............................................................................................................... 34
UQ – Coastal Econ Down ........................................................................................................... 35
UQ – Water Shortages Now ...................................................................................................... 37
UQ – Ag Sector on Brink ............................................................................................................ 38
UQ – SQ Desal Fails.................................................................................................................... 39
Link – Water Shortages Collapse Econ ...................................................................................... 40
Link – Collapse Ag Sector ........................................................................................................... 41
Link – Food Price Spikes ............................................................................................................ 42
I/L – Ag Sector k2 Econ .............................................................................................................. 43
Solvency – Water Shortages ...................................................................................................... 44
Solvency – Economic Development .......................................................................................... 45
Solvency – Jobs .......................................................................................................................... 46
Solvency ......................................................................................................................................... 47
Solvency – Drinkable Water ...................................................................................................... 48
Solvency – Empirics ................................................................................................................... 49
Solvency – Environment ............................................................................................................ 51
Solvency – Sustainability ........................................................................................................... 52
A2................................................................................................................................................... 53
A2 Wastewater Bad ................................................................................................................... 54
A2 Brine ..................................................................................................................................... 55
A2 Spending ............................................................................................................................... 57
Extra AFF Stuff ............................................................................................................................... 59
Advantage: Moral Obligation .................................................................................................... 60
Alt Links/Impact ..................................................................................................................... 64
Perm Answers ........................................................................................................................ 67
Advantage: Water Wars ............................................................................................................ 68
Extensions ............................................................................................................................ 71
Advantage: Soft Power .............................................................................................................. 82
Extensions.............................................................................................................................. 86
Advantage: Gender Equality ...................................................................................................... 89
Advantage: Agriculture and Food Security ................................................................................ 91
Alt Impacts ............................................................................................................................. 94
Impacts ...................................................................................................................................... 95
Solvency ..................................................................................................................................... 96
1ac
Contention 1: The Status Quo
Cost competitiveness is severely limiting research and development of
sustainable desalination processes
Qtaishat & Banat 11
[Mohammed Rasool Department of Chemical Engineering, University of Jordan, Amman, Jordan
Fawzi Department of Chemical Engineering, The Petroleum Institute, PO Box 2533 Abu Dhabi,
UAE Desalination by solar powered membrane distillation system, in Desalination February 25
2012]
It is worth mentioning that both, thermal and Reverse Osmosis are the leading desalination
processes in the water market [1]. However, those processes suffer from drawbacks and
some technical difficulties which are: i) They are considered energy intensive either by
the heat demand (i.e. thermal processes) or by the high pressure demand as in reverse
osmosis process, this high energy consumption generates more pollutants and undesired
emissions. ii) The scaling and fouling problem is one of the major challenges that adds to
the complexity and cost of those processes. iii) The membrane cost and its durability in
the membrane processes are still immature subjects that require more research and
development. These drawbacks affected the economic feasibility of those processes,
which necessitates the search for alternative, environment friendly and sustainable
desalination. Membrane distillation (MD) is a promising new comer to the desalination
processes which can be coupled to low-grade and renewable energy source such as wind
and solar energy. The developments in the use of renewable energy sources (RES) have demonstrated that it is
ideally suited for desalination, when the demand of fresh water is not too large. The rapid escalation in the
costs of fuels has made the RES alternative more attractive. In certain remote arid
regions, this may be the only alternative. The interdependence of water and energy is increasingly evident
due to their territorial, environmental and economic implications. Innovations in the area of energy supply
can improve the economic viability of prospective desalination plants considerably.
Recently, considerable attention has been given to the use of renewable energy
including solar, wind and geothermal as sources for desalination, especially in remote areas and
islands, because of the high costs of fossil fuels.
Plan
The United States federal government should require that all seawater
desalination facilities acquire electricity from solar energy sources and
substantially increase financial incentives for solar energy-based desalination of
ocean water
Contention Two: Warming
Warming is real and human caused-4 reasons
Prothero 12
(M.A., M.Phil., and Ph.D. degrees in geological sciences from Columbia University, and a B.A. in
geology and biology from the University of California, Riverside, Professor of Geology at
Occidental College in Los Angeles, and Lecturer in Geobiology at the California Institute of
Technology, “How We Know Global Warming is Real and Human Caused” Skeptic. Altadena:
2012. Vol. 17, Iss. 2; pg. 14, 10 pgs, proquest)
How do we know that global warming is real and primarily human caused? There are numerous lines
of evidence that converge toward this conclusion. 1. Carbon Dioxide Increase. Carbon dioxide in our
atmosphere has increased at an unprecedented rate in the past 200 years. Not one data set collected over a
long enough span of time shows otherwise. Mann et al. (1999) compiled the past 900 years' worth of
temperature data from tree rings, ice cores, corals, and direct measurements in the past few centuries, and the sudden
increase of temperature of the past century stands out like a sore thumb. This famous graph is now known as the "hockey
stick" because it is long and straight through most of its length, then bends sharply upward at the end like the blade of a
hockey stick. Other graphs show that climate was very stable within a narrow range of variation through the past 1000,
2000, or even 10,000 years since the end of the last Ice Age. There were minor warming events during the Climatic
Optimum about 7000 years ago, the Medieval Warm Period, and the slight cooling of the Little Ice Age in die 1700s and
1800s. But the
magnitude and rapidity of the warming represented by the last 200 years is
simply unmatched in all of human history. More revealing, die timing of this warming coincides with the Industrial
Revolution, when humans first began massive deforestation and released carbon dioxide into the atmosphere by burning
an unprecedented amount of coal, gas, and oil. 2.
Melting Polar Ice Caps. The polar icecaps are
thinning and breaking up at an alarming rate. In 2000, my former graduate advisor Malcolm McKenna
was one of the first humans to fly over the North Pole in summer time and see no ice, just open water. The Arctic ice cap
has been frozen solid for at least the past 3 million years (and maybe longer),4 but now the
entire ice sheet is
breaking up so fast that by 2030 (and possibly sooner) less than half of the Arctic will be ice
covered in the summer.5 As one can see from watching the news, this is an ecological disaster for everything
that lives up there, from the polar bears to the seals and walruses to the animals they feed upon, to the 4 million people
whose world is melting beneath their feet. The Antarctic is thawing even faster. In February-March 2002, the Larsen B ice
shelf - over 3000 square km (the size of Rhode Island) and 220 m (700 feet) thick- broke up in just a few months, a story
typical of nearly all the ice shelves in Antarctica. The Larsen B shelf had survived all the previous ice ages and interglacial
warming episodes over the past 3 million years, and even the warmest periods of the last 10,000 years- yet it and nearly all
the other thick ice sheets on the Arctic, Greenland, and Antarctic are vanishing at a rate never before seen in geologic
history. 3.
Melting Glaciers. Glaciers are all retreating at the highest rates ever
documented. Many of those glaciers, along with snow melt, especially in the Himalayas, Andes, Alps, and Sierras,
provide most of the freshwater that the populations below the mountains depend upon - yet this fresh water supply is
vanishing. Just think about the percentage of world's population in southern Asia (especially India) that depend on
Himalayan snowmelt for their fresh water. The implications are staggering. The permafrost that once remained solidly
frozen even in the summer has now thawed,
damaging the Inuit villages on the Arctic coast and
threatening all our pipelines to die North Slope of Alaska. This is catastrophic not only for life on the
permafrost, but as it thaws, the permafrost releases huge amounts of greenhouse gases which are
one of the major contributors to global warming. Not only is the ice vanishing, but we have seen record heat waves over
and over again, killing thousands of people, as each year joins the list of the hottest years on record. (2010 just topped
that list as the hottest year, surpassing the previous record in 2009, and we shall know about 2011 soon enough). Natural
animal and plant populations are being devastated all over the globe as their environments change.6 Many animals
respond by moving their ranges to formerly cold climates, so now places that once did not have to worry about diseasebearing mosquitoes are infested as the climate warms and allows them to breed further north. 4.
Sea Level Rise.
All that melted ice eventually ends up in the ocean, causing sea levels to rise, as it has many
times in the geologic past. At present, the sea level is rising about 3-4 mm per year, more than ten times the rate of 0.10.2
mm/year that has occurred over the past 3000 years. Geological data
show that the sea level was virtually
unchanged over the past 10,000 years since the present interglacial began. A few mm here or there doesn't
impress people, until you consider that the rate is accelerating and that most scientists predict sea levels will rise 80-130
cm in just the next century. A sea level rise of 1.3 m (almost 4 feet) would drown many of the world's low-elevation cities,
such as Venice and New Orleans, and low-lying countries such as the Netherlands or Bangladesh. A number of tiny island
nations such as Vanuatu and the Maldives, which barely poke out above the ocean now, are already vanishing beneath the
waves. Eventually their entire population will have to move someplace else.7 Even a small sea level rise might not drown
all these areas, but they are much more vulnerable to the large waves of a storm surge (as happened with Hurricane
Katrina), which could do much more damage than sea level rise alone. If sea level rose by 6 m (20 feet), most of die world's
coastal plains and low-lying areas (such as the Louisiana bayous, Florida, and most of the world's river deltas) would be
drowned.
Market dominance of fossil fuel based desalination technology guarantees that
future approaches to water security and sustainability will remain
environmentally destructive and contribute to global warming – targeting the
cost-competitiveness of renewable energy-driven desalination tech is key
Hilal, 05/27/14
[Nidal, Professor in the College of Engineering at Swansea University, The Water Challenge –
Why Desalination Technology Deserves Your Vote, May 27th, 2014, http://www.envirotechonline.com/news/water-wastewater/9/nesta/the_water_challange__why_desalination_technology_deserves_your_vote/30225/]
The rapid development of water desalination technologies and its market in the last decade clearly reflects their growing
importance. However, in
spite of the significant technological advances and successes in reducing energy
remains an energy-intensive process,
contributing to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and thus having a contributory effect on
climate change. In some GCC/MENA (Gulf Cooperation Council/Middle East-North Africa), countries, the situation is
especially challenging in terms of the cost of energy use, because thermal-based processes such as multi-stage
flash (MSF) and multi-effect distillation (MED) dominate the market; these processes depend directly on
the availability and cost of fossil fuel. Furthermore, they rely on the availability of good prior experience gained
requirements (mainly in membrane-based processes), desalination
in these technologies, and must often deal with challenging seawater quality, especially in the Gulf region. To meet these and
other related challenges, there
is currently a tremendous interest in identifying breakthrough
solutions that address these global problems of water security and sustainability of water
resources at a lower-cost, while also being more environmentally friendly. To be clear, our
objectives should be to target a reduction in the specific energy consumption of seawater
desalination to reach 2 kWh/m3 in the near-term, and to develop more sustainable desalination
processes which are less dependent on conventional energy sources and more
environmentally friendly in the longer term. This will be enabled by exploring the
development of new and emerging low-energy and renewable energy-driven desalination
technologies. Research towards this should focus on the hybridisation of forward osmosis (FO), membrane distillation
(MD), and adsorption desalination (AD), coupled with or standing alone from conventional desalination processes such as MED
and reverse osmosis (RO). In particular, both nanotechnology and membrane processes are set to play a key role as enabling
technologies; global demand for membranes alone is set to increase by 9% annually, with a forecast of more than US $20
billion in the water sector by 2015. There is a clear and urgent need to undertake fundamental research in the water sciences
and advance the development of water technologies to deliver innovative solutions that address these global challenges of
sustainable and secure water resources. Key research objectives that will have immediate impact globally include to: •
Research and develop novel technologies for water desalination and reuse; • Optimize and hybridise desalination and reuse
technologies for enhanced performance; • Promote water technologies for sustainable urban, agricultural and industrial
applications; • Research urban and natural hydrologic systems to enable improved water resource understanding and
management; • Disseminate knowledge through demonstration, engagement and technology transfer. Water
security is
the biggest challenge we face on the planet. The Longitude Prize 2014 can be the catalyst that helps us to do
something about it. We must act urgently and move ahead, if these technologies are to be
available and deliver the needed solutions in time.
Failure to confront warming will lead to rapid ocean destruction and causes
extinction
Harvey 13 – citing the International Programme on the State of the Ocean
Fiona, “Rate of ocean acidification due to carbon emissions is at highest for 300m years”
[http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/oct/03/ocean-acidification-carbon-dioxideemissions-levels] October 2, 2013 //mtc
The oceans are becoming more acidic at the fastest rate in 300m years, due to carbon
dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels, and a mass extinction of key species may already be
almost inevitable as a result, leading marine scientists warned on Thursday. An international audit
of the health of the oceans has found that overfishing and pollution are also contributing to the crisis, in a deadly
combination of destructive forces that are imperilling marine life, on which billions of people depend for their nutrition
and livelihood. In
the starkest warning yet of the threat to ocean health, the International
[acidification] is unprecedented in the Earth's
known history. We are entering an unknown territory of marine ecosystem change, and exposing organisms to
intolerable evolutionary pressure. The next mass extinction may have already begun." It published its
findings in the State of the Oceans report, collated every two years from global
monitoring and other research studies. Alex Rogers, professor of biology at Oxford University, said: "The
health of the ocean is spiralling downwards far more rapidly than we had thought. We are
seeing greater change, happening faster, and the effects are more imminent than
previously anticipated. The situation should be of the gravest concern to everyone since
everyone will be affected by changes in the ability of the ocean to support life on Earth." Coral is particularly at
risk. Increased acidity dissolves the calcium carbonate skeletons that form the structure of reefs,
and increasing temperatures lead to bleaching where the corals lose symbiotic algae they rely on. The
Programme on the State of the Ocean (IPSO) said: "This
report says that world governments' current pledges to curb carbon emissions would not go far enough or fast enough to
save many of the world's reefs. There is a time lag of several decades between the carbon being emitted and the effects
on seas, meaning that further acidification and further warming of the oceans are inevitable, even if we drastically reduce
emissions very quickly. There is as yet little sign of that, with global greenhouse gas output still rising. Corals
are vital
to the health of fisheries, because they act as nurseries to young fish and smaller
species that provide food for bigger ones. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is absorbed by the seas – at
least a third of the carbon that humans have released has been dissolved in this way, according to the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change – and makes them more acidic. But IPSO found the situation was even more dire than that laid
out by the world's top climate scientists in their landmark report last week. In
absorbing carbon and heat
from the atmosphere, the world's oceans have shielded humans from the worst effects
of global warming, the marine scientists said. This has slowed the rate of climate change on land, but its profound
effects on marine life are only now being understood. Acidification harms marine creatures that rely
on calcium carbonate to build coral reefs and shells, as well as plankton, and the fish
that rely on them. Jane Lubchenco, former director of the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
and a marine biologist, said the effects were already being felt in some oyster fisheries, where young larvae were failing to
develop properly in areas where the acid rates are higher, such as on the west coast of the US. "You can actually see this
happening," she said. "It's not something a long way into the future. It is a very big problem." But the chemical changes in
the ocean go further, said Rogers. Marine animals use chemical signals to perceive their environment and locate prey and
predators, and there is evidence that their ability to do so is being impaired in some species. Trevor Manuel, a South
African government minister and co-chair of the Global Ocean Commission, called the report "a deafening alarm bell on
humanity's wider impacts on the global oceans". "Unless
we restore the ocean's health, we will
experience the consequences on prosperity, wellbeing and development. Governments must
respond as urgently as they do to national security threats – in the long run, the impacts are just as important," he said.
Current rates of carbon release into the oceans are 10 times faster than those before the last major species extinction,
which was the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum extinction, about 55m years ago. The IPSO scientists can tell that the
current ocean acidification is the highest for 300m years from geological records. They
called for strong action
by governments to limit carbon concentrations in the atmosphere to no more than 450 parts
per million of carbon dioxide equivalent. That would require urgent and deep reductions in fossil fuel use. No country in
the world is properly tackling overfishing, the report found, and almost two thirds are failing badly. At least 70 per cent of
the world's fish populations are over-exploited. Giving local communities more control over their fisheries, and favouring
small-scale operators over large commercial vessels would help this, the report found. Subsidies that drive overcapacity in
fishing fleets should also be eliminated, marine conservation zones set up and destructive fishing equipment should be
banned. There should also be better governance of the areas of ocean beyond countries' national limits. The
IPSO
report also found the oceans were being "deoxygenated" – their average oxygen
content is likely to fall by as much as 7 per cent by 2100, partly because of the run-off of fertilisers
and sewage into the seas, and also as a side-effect of global warming. The reduction of oxygen is a concern
as areas of severe depletion become effectively dead.
Solar-based desalination is key to stem global warming
AlMutawa et al, 2k13
[Mahdi, Professor of Biological Science; Ahmad Hussain, Professor of Nuclear Engineering;
AbdekarimMorsy Hegab, Professor of Mechanical Engineering; Faheem Hassan Aktar, Professor
of Chemical and Materials Engineering, Feasibility Studies of Solar Assisted Desalination
Technology for the Coastal Areas of Rabigh Using Multi Effect Desalination Method and Its LabScale Demonstration, Life Science Journal 2013; 10(3)]
The earth contains about 1.4×109 KM3¶ of ¶ water which covers 70% of the planet surface area. ¶ The percentage of salt water
in this large amount is ¶ 97.5%. The remaining 2.5% is fresh water with 80% ¶ of this amount frozen in the icecaps or combined
as ¶ soil moisture. Both the forms are not easily accessible ¶ for human use. The remaining 0.5% is believed to be ¶ adequate to
support all the life on earth [1]. This ¶ amount of fresh water is nearly constant since the ¶ start of life on earth. On the other
hand, the
world ¶ population is increasing drastically and is believed to ¶ be 9 billion till 2050
of brackish or ¶ sea water now represents a consolidated system to ¶ resolve
the water emergency. The main drawback of ¶ this solution, however, remains the high
energy ¶ consumption. Considering the limited availability, ¶ high cost and, above all, the
negative environmental ¶ impacts caused mainly due to their use, it is ¶ imperative to
search for new alternative sources to ¶ supplement or substitute for conventional fuels. In ¶
[2]. Desalination
view of the problems mentioned above, it is not ¶ surprising that moves are afoot to use renewable ¶ energy resources, in
addition to the traditional one for ¶ water desalination but the
fact remains that even at ¶ present, mainly
because of very high cost(almost ¶ twice that of a conventional system).Such solution ¶ has been
practiced on a low scale. In spite of the ¶ aforesaid economic restraints, it is worth
exploring ¶ the potentialities of using solar energy, since its ¶ peculiar features appear to be
most appropriate for ¶ this particular aim [3]. ¶ Rabigh is located on the west cost of the ¶ Red Sea of Saudi
Arabia latitude of 390¶ and ¶ Longitude of 22.480¶ .Rabigh is a county belongs to ¶ on Makka Al Mukarrama State, about
200km from ¶ MAkkah Al Mukarrama city and about 150km north ¶ to Jeddah city as seen in Figure 1. The total ¶ population of
Rabigh is about 35000 people. ¶ Due
to large energy consumption in the ¶ major commercial
desalination processes along with ¶ the growing concern about CO2 emission, there is a ¶
strong interest in the alternate sources of energy to ¶ run desalination units and in
particular renewable ¶ energy sources. Solar desalination can be one of the ¶ most successful applications of
solar energy in Saudi ¶ Arabia. Saudi Arabia because of its typical ¶ geographical position has abundant solar energy. ¶
According to the calculation made by Surface ¶ Meteorology and Solar Energy Data (software ¶ developed by NASA), Saudi
Arabia has annual solar ¶ energy of 2160 KWh/m2¶ [4]. The
use of solar energy ¶ for desalination is of
utmost environment friendly. It ¶ is to be noted that nearly 3 kg of CO2 generated for ¶ each
m3¶ of water produced (at an energy consumption ¶ rate of 5 kWh/m3 with the best technology currently ¶ used on
large scale) could be avoided if the ¶ conventional fuel is replaced by a renewable one ¶
especially with the solar [3].Solar desalination has ¶ significant potential for application where fresh water ¶ shortage
coincides with good solar radiation and ¶ availability of seawater. As energy cost comprises ¶ almost 30% of
fresh water cost, therefore, use of ¶ renewable energy will reduce cost of product water.
Furthermore, indigenous design and fabrication of single effect desalination process will
give confidence for more complex desalination systems in the future.
Plan spurs the creation and extension of existing desalination plants with solar
power that is key to reducing GHG emissions and solve climate change
Kelley 11
[Angela Haren, Law professor at Golden Gate University School of Law, Seawater Desalination:
Climate Change Adaptation Strategy or Contributor? Ecology Law Currents Vol 38:40 pg 40-50
2011 http://elq.typepad.com/currents/2011/currents38-06-Kelley-2011-1202.pdf]
REGULATORY RECOMMENDATIONS implementing new water supply options presents an important
corresponding opportunity to reduce GHG emissions. The following recommendations
would ensure that adaptation strategies to supply Southern California with much-needed water will not
contribute to climate change or cause other environmental damage. 1. Before considering
seawater desalination, California’s Department of Water Resources and State Water Resources Control Board should create
a comprehensive prioritization of water supply options requiring local water management plans to first pursue and exhaust all
supply options that have less energy demand and indirect GHG emissions. New seawater desalination plants should only be
permitted after urban conservation, storm water capture or reuse, water recycling, and groundwater desalination options have
been explored. 2. Require a study, available to the public, which examines energy demand, indirect GHG emissions, and
cumulative marine ecosystem impacts of seawater desalination. The cumulative impact of additional seawater desalination
facilities in California has not been thoroughly researched and documented for regulatory purposes. This is a necessary first
an intelligent water strategy. 3. Require that any new seawater
desalination facility acquire its electricity from non-fossil fuel sources. Although this
may be more spatially or technologically challenging, it would greatly reduce concerns
that desalination would contribute to climate change. Combining seawater desalination
plants with renewable energy generation could also provide an incentive to finance
more renewable energy sources. 4. Require that new seawater desalination facilities be
located and designed with a production capacity compatible with the use of subseafloor intakes. This would help to avoid entrainment and impingement of marine life.
5. Require local water agencies to commit to reducing the amount of imported water if
a new seawater desalination plant is built. This would ensure that seawater desalination
is in fact a replacement for imported water and not merely a supplemental water
supply. 6. Prohibit co-location of desalination plants with once-through cooled power
plants to ensure that that new seawater desalination plants do not prolong the life of
old fossil-fuel plants. CONCLUSION Choosing an adaptation strategy that increases
GHG emissions and energy demand (thereby exacerbating the climate change problem) is
not a sustainable or reasonable strategy. Other options to increase California’s water supply, including
step before California can pursue
conservation, water recycling, and stormwater capture and reuse, would provide as much or more water at a reduced cost
facilitate climate change adaptation. Desalination might very well have its place in
California’s water supply portfolio, however, the marine impacts, energy and GHG issues
must be addressed and regulatory safeguards established in order to ensure proper
construction and minimize environmental impacts before desalination can reasonably
be considered a worthwhile adaptation strategy.
and would better
Contention Three: Economy
The global economy is showing signs of future downturn
Pilkington 6/24/14
Phillip Pilkington 6/24 (June 24th, 2014, International economist, and member of the Political
Economy Research Group,”Will real estate bubbles again sink the global economy?” Al Jazeera
6/24/2014
http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2014/6/global-real-estatebubbleimf.html)
¶ The IMF says the bubble economies are S weden, the Netherlands, Norway, the United Kingdom, France, New
Zealand, Australia, Canada and Belgium (and possibly Austria). All these countries have house-price-to-income
ratios and house-price-to-rent ratios that are well above trend. These indicators suggest that
people’s purchasing power is not catching up with house price and rent increases — both signs that property price valuations
might be out of line with fundamentals.¶ ¶ What
does this mean for the global economy? While high
house prices might redistribute income from first-time buyers to people who already own
property, which would be unfair, the most important aspect of any housing bubble is the
threat that it poses to economic growth if it pops. How housing bubbles stimulate economic activity is
quite straightforward, working through two channels.¶ ¶ Rising house prices make people who own houses
feel wealthier. Because they see the value of their property go up, they assume that they
have more money, and this leads them to spend more on consumer purchases. In really crazy
property bubbles, people may even remortgage their homes and spend the money on consumer goods, effectively using their
properties like ATMs. Economists call this channel the wealth effect.¶ ¶ The
other channel through which housing
far more direct. When house prices are rising, investors build
more houses because they think it will be profitable to do so. This relationship is known in economics as
Tobin’s Q for new dwelling investment. Building more houses leads to people being employed to build
the houses and generates revenue for suppliers of construction materials. This is the key channel
through which house price bubbles generate economic growth and employment. It is also the key way that a
sharp decline in property prices can lead to a recession.¶ ¶ The bursting of the U.S. housing
bubble in 2006 and ’07 led to a financial crisis and a worldwide recession. The financial crisis began
bubbles lead to economic growth is
when many of the mortgages that the banks had extended went sour as people found themselves unable to make repayments.
The Great Recession, on the other hand, was more directly caused by the fall in property investment. If the IMF is correct that
the countries it highlights are bubble economies, then we need to understand what sort of impact might be felt on the world
economy if the bubbles pop.
Four-fifths of US states will experience severe water shortages this year
Bastasch, 05/23/14
[Michael, Policy Analyst for the Daily Caller, Report: 40 States Expect Water Shortages In The
Next Decade, May 23th, 2014, http://dailycaller.com/2014/05/23/report-40-states-expectwater-shortages-in-the-next-decade/]
Four-fifths of U.S. states are expecting to have water shortages in the near future, according
to a new government watchdog report.¶ A Government Accountability Office (GAO) review state water regulators and experts
and review of water supply literature found that officials
in 40 out of 50 states expect water shortages to
occur in some parts of their states in the next decade. Many officials are concerned about water
shortages in the future, especially in the wake of a severe drought that has hit the west coast.¶ In 2012, a summer
drought hit much of the Midwest U.S., hurting crop yields and driving up food prices. But fears
over water shortages throughout the U.S. are not new, according to the GAO.¶ The government watchdog said the “key issues
surrounding freshwater availability and use have not changed significantly over the last decade.” The GAO said, however, that
global warming has added another layer of uncertainty to water supply planning.¶ “As in 2003,
population growth remains a concern, particularly in certain states where water supplies
are already limited,” the GAO said. “Data from the U.S. Census Bureau project that the U.S.
population will increase by approximately 29 percent between 2000 and 2030, and the
western and southern regions are projected to experience the greatest growth during this
time. According to data from USGS, some states in these regions have among the highest
water withdrawal rates in the United States.”
Water shortages will devastate coastal economies in the US
Kiesel, 06/27/14
[Laura, Policy Analyst, Is A Water Shortage Imminent, June 27th, 2014,
http://www.mainstreet.com/article/smart-spending/water-shortage-imminent?page=4]
In fact, several states in the nation are already facing moderate to severe drought
conditions, which is impacting not only the environment, but the economy.¶ Parts of Texas
has been suffering from extreme drought conditions, with over 20 water suppliers saying
they could run out of water in this summer, according to the Daily Caller. Additionally, nearly 400 public
water suppliers in the state have placed voluntary restrictions on water use, while nearly 800 have set mandatory restrictions.
The town of Wichita Falls seems to be the hardest hit, and is indanger of running out of water in the coming weeks.¶
Drought conditions are not limited to Texas, but have afflicted many Midwestern and Western states, impacting
not only drinking water supplies, but water needed to irrigate staple crops.¶ According to a
recent Associated Press article, the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicted this year's national wheat crop will be smaller due
to drought in states that in addition to Texas, include Iowa, Oklahoma and Kansas.¶ California
has also suffered
punishing drought, with the New York Times reporting back in February that 17 rural
communities that provided water for 40,000 people were in danger of running dry in the
next few months. Moreover, the state's main municipal water distribution system, which provides water for an
estimated 25 million people, stopped supplying water for the first time since it was established back in 1960.¶ According to an
article featured in Bloomberg earlier this year, California
is the nation's number one agricultural
producer, worth an estimated $44.7 billion. But losses of revenue from this past year's
drought were predicted to cost the economy as much as $5 billion by the end of 2014 as
reported by the California Farm Water Coalition, an industry group.¶ Drought conditions were
also found to be affecting other states in the Southwestern region this year, including Nevada and New Mexico,
where many farmers have reportedly stopped planting their fields and forced to sell off cattle because there is no grass to
graze.¶ But even
moister regions of the U.S. like the Northeast are expected to get hit with
serious freshwater shortages in the coming years.
Coastal economies are key to the US economy
Rappaport & Sachs ’03 (2003, Jordan Rappaport Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Jeffrey D.
Sachs The earth Institute, Columbia University, “The United States as a Coastal
Nation”, http://www.earth.columbia.edu/sitefiles/file/about/director/documents/jeg0304.pdf?_ga=1.551
53259.1511923734.1403791705 –PW-)
US economic activity is overwhelmingly concentrated at its ocean and Great Lakes coasts,
reflecting a large contribution from coastal proximity to productivity and quality of life.
Extensively controlling for correlated natural attributes and initial conditions decisively rejects that the coastal concentration of economic activity
is spurious or just derives from historical forces long since dissipated. Measuring
proximity based on coastal
attributes that contribute to either productivity or quality of life, but not to both, suggests
that the coastal concentration derives primarily from a productivity effect but also,
increasingly, from a quality of life effect. An abundance of rich, fertile land and an open frontier uniquely characterize
US economic development Less widely recognized is the extent to which the United States is and has
always been a primarily coastal country. Consider Map I: the shaded area represents the 559 counties with centers
within 80km of an ocean or Great Lakes coast. Collectively, these counties account for just 13 percent of the continental US land area but 51
percent of 2000 population and 57 percent of 2000 civilian income. Put differently, income per square kilometer of these coastal counties is
more than eight times that of the remaining inland counties
. That the United States with its abundant land
remains a primarily coastal nation underscores a basic economic fact: geography
matters. In the search to understand the underlying determinants of growth and prosperity, economists have examined a myriad of country
attributes ranging from the self evident (e.g., education) to the controversial (e.g., culture). But the role of geography, for the most part, has
been neglected. From a theoretical perspective, modem growth models focus on the accumulation of physical, human, and technological capital,
which individually or together complement raw labor as the main factors of production. Land, when included, tends to serve as the intensive
factor in a traditional sector away from which labor in shifting (Lewis, 1954; Jorgenson, 1961; Ranis and Fei, 1961; Harris and Todaro, 1970; Dixit,
1973; Drazen and Eckstein, 1988). More recently, theory has begun to grapple with the issue of space: increasing returns to scale in production,
whether direct or via spillovers in technology and human capital, imply a spatial concentration of industry location (Henderson, 1988; Krugman,
1991; Fujita et al., 1999). While both approaches yield insights, neither addresses the constraints physical geography may place upon economic
growth. This was not always so. Adam
Smith in Book 1 of The Wealth of Nations observes the
importance of access to navigable water as an input to the development process: ¶ As by
means of water carriage a more extensive market is opened to every sort of industry than
what land carriage alone can afford it, so it is upon the sea-coast, and along the banks of
navigable rivers that industry of every kind begins to sub-divide and improve itself, and it
is frequently not till a long time after that those improvements extend themselves to the
inland part of the country. ¶ Thus, Smith laments the difficult preconditions for economic
growth facing inland Africa and large parts of Russia, Siberia, and Central Asia.
US key to global economic stability
McIntyre 01/14/14
(Douglas, economic analyzer, “U.S. Key to Global Recovery, Says World Bank”, January 14th, 2014,
http://247wallst.com/economy/2014/01/15/u-s-key-to-global-recovery-says-world-bank/ -ES-)
While the developed economies of the world will stage improvements this year, and the
growth of the developing world will accelerate sharply, the United States, the largest
nation based on gross domestic product (GDP), is the key to a strong global recovery in 2014. At the
core of the U.S. effect is the activity of Federal Reserve and its efforts to taper its stimulus programs. The recovery, in other
words, may come down to the decisions of a single central bank. Economists in America and abroad say that if access to money
at extremely low interest rates in the United States begins to disappear, the American economy cannot sustain growth, which
has only picked up sharply in the past few quarters, both based on GDP improvement and employment gains. The jobless rate
in the United States, at 6.7%, is still well above the average when the economy is in strong recovery. American consumer
activity is still about two-thirds of GDP, and the foundations of that activity are still modest.
Maintaining a strong economy is the only way to prevent multiple scenarios for
nuclear war
Ferguson, 2004
(Niall Ferguson, Laurence A. Tisch Professor of History at Harvard, July/August 2004 “A World Without
Power,” FOREIGN POLICY Issue 143)
So what is left? Waning empires. Religious revivals. Incipient anarchy. A coming retreat into fortified cities. These
are the
Dark Age experiences that a world without a hyperpower might quickly find itself reliving.
The trouble is, of course, that this Dark Age would be an altogether more dangerous one than the Dark Age of the ninth
century. For the world is much more populous-roughly 20 times more--so friction between the world's disparate "tribes" is
bound to be more frequent. Technology has transformed production; now human societies depend not merely on
freshwater and the harvest but also on supplies of fossil fuels that are known to be finite. Technology has upgraded
destruction, too, so it is now possible not just to sack a city but to obliterate it. For more than two decades, globalization-the integration of world markets for commodities, labor, and capital--has raised living standards throughout the world, except
The reversal of
globalization--which a new Dark Age would produce--would certainly lead to economic
stagnation and even depression. As the United States sought to protect itself after a second September 11
where countries have shut themselves off from the process through tyranny or civil war.
devastates, say, Houston or Chicago, it would inevitably become a less open society, less hospitable for foreigners seeking to
work, visit, or do business. Meanwhile, as
Europe's Muslim enclaves grew, Islamist extremists'
infiltration of the EU would become irreversible, increasing trans-Atlantic tensions over the
Middle East to the breaking point. An economic meltdown in China would plunge the Communist system into crisis,
unleashing the centrifugal forces that undermined previous Chinese empires. Western investors would lose out and conclude
that lower returns at home are preferable to the risks of default abroad. The worst effects of the new Dark Age would be felt
on the edges of the waning great powers. The
wealthiest ports of the global economy--from New York to
Rotterdam to Shanghai--would become the targets of plunderers and pirates. With ease, terrorists could
disrupt the freedom of the seas, targeting oil tankers, aircraft carriers, and cruise liners, while Western nations frantically
concentrated on making their airports secure. Meanwhile, limited nuclear
wars could devastate numerous
regions, beginning in the Korean peninsula and Kashmir, perhaps ending catastrophically in
the Middle East. In Latin America, wretchedly poor citizens would seek solace in Evangelical Christianity imported by U.S.
religious orders. In Africa, the great plagues of aids and malaria would continue their deadly work. The few remaining solvent
airlines would simply suspend services to many cities in these continents; who would wish to leave their privately guarded safe
havens to go there? For all these reasons, the prospect of an apolar world should frighten us today a great deal more than it
frightened the heirs of Charlemagne. If
the United States retreats from global hegemony--its fragile self-
image dented by minor setbacks on the imperial frontier--its critics at home and abroad must not pretend that they are
ushering in a new era of multipolar harmony, or even a return to the good old balance of power. Be careful what you wish for.
The alternative to unipolarity would not be multipolarity at all. It
would be apolarity--a global vacuum of
power. And far more dangerous forces than rival great powers would benefit from
such a not-so-new world disorder.
Only desalination solves – it is vital to coastal economic development
Gleick and Wolff 2006
(Dr. Peter H. Gleick is co-founder and President ¶ of the Pacific Institute for Studies in
Development, Gary Wolff, P.E., Ph.D., is Principal Economist and¶ Engineer, June 2006,
“DESALINATION, WITH A GRAIN OF SALT, http://pacinst.org/wpcontent/uploads/sites/21/2013/02/desalination_report3.pdf-ES-)
Desalination facilities in many arid and watershed areas of the world are vital for economic
development. In particular, desalination is an important water source in parts of the arid Middle East, Persian
Gulf, North Africa, Caribbean islands, and other locations where the natural availability of fresh water is
insufficient to meet demand and where traditional water-supply options or transfers from
elsewhere are implausible or uneconomical. Increasingly, other regions are exploring the use of desalination
as a potential mainstream source of reliable, high-quality water as the prices slowly drop toward the cost of more traditional
alternatives..
Contention Four: Solvency
Federal involvement through financial incentives are key to short and long term
economic feasibility of solar-based desalination technology
Stroud, 2k12
[Matthew, MA from the University of Arizona in Hydrology, Solar Desalination in the Southwest
United States: A Thermoeconomic Analysis Utilizing the Sun to Desalt Water in High Irradiance
Regions, Masters Thesis]
Model results show off-the-shelf solar desalination is a promising alternative to ¶ traditionally
powered desalting methods, favoring filtration and liquid discharge methods ¶ for sea and brackish water.
However, CST-MED methods produce ZLD more cost ¶ effectively. Short-term feasibility is a function of climate,
method, subsidies, capital ¶ ability, competition energy costs, and use regime. ¶ Potential model pitfalls and
limitations are found in use regime and cost ¶ assumptions. Typically, only private entities
can capitalize on subsidies whereas large ¶ water providers are usually government
agencies. Alternative funding structures can be ¶ created, allowing private, subsidizable utilities to step in as power plant
purchaser. ¶ However, privately funded ventures seek maximum return on investment, and
most likely ¶ offer little, if any, cost advantage over grid power. An alternative at the
institutional level ¶ may involve creating government owned corporations able to accept
subsidies. ¶ Capital ability and traditional energy cost are also important feasibility factors. ¶ Levelized Cost of Energy
(LCOE) was calculated using a 3% interest rate over 30 years; ¶ a small rate increase can change solar competitiveness. In a
similar way, competition ¶ energy prices can change feasibility. Solar
power’s economic feasibility hinges on
¶ traditional energy costs being higher than LCOE. Using PV-RO model parameters, solar ¶ filtration
desalination becomes uncompetitive at traditional energy prices below 0.067 ¶ $/kWh.
Short-term feasibility as a function of financial structure can be increased by acquiring subsidies,
securing a low interest rate, and increasing plant life (lowering ¶ LCOE). Little can be done actively about
competition energy; prices are set by a global ¶ market. Though, this dilemma may not be an issue: at the time of this study,
Southwest ¶ water providers were paying higher rates for electricity than photovoltaic LCOE: between ¶ 0.075 and 0.12 $/kWh
depending on interruptibility (e.g. TEP 2011). Cost-volatile ¶ natural gas was being sold to public utilities for 0.66 $/therm—
double the cost of CST ¶ process heat in the Southwest.
In order for solar based energy to be cost competitive there must be initiatives,
education, and policies to spur effective support of sustainable development
across social, political and economic lines
Goosen ,Mahmoudi, & Ghaffour 13
[Mattheus F. A., Hacene, Noreddine, Reseacher in Graduate Studies at Alfaisal University, Faculty of
Sciences at Hassiba Ben Bouali University, Water Desalination and Reuse Centre , King Abdullah University
of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia “Today's and Future Challenges in Applications of Renewable
Energy Technologies for Desalination” Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology 44:929–
99]
Major challenges identified in this study are the necessity to formalize the renewable energy
desalination community into organizations that would represent the sector and would lobby for their interests;
the need to target at least a 5% share of new installations in the global desalination
market over the next decade; the requisite to support the wider establishment of
renewable energy desalination education and training activities for students,
professionals, and decision makers including raising awareness about the technology,
the environmental benefits and demonstrating its market potential; the responsibility to
coordinate the development of a comprehensive market analysis on a country by
country basis; and the need to develop and promote appropriate legal structures and
policies on a regional basis. In order to aid commercialization, different types of governmental
policy instruments (e.g., tax breaks, low interest loans) can be effective for different
renewable energy sources. However, broad-based policies, such as tradable energy
certificates, are more likely to induce innovation on technologies that are close to
competitive with fossil fuels. There is also a need to eliminate subsidies for fossil-fuel
energy systems or taxing fossil-fuel production and use to reflect the costs of
environmental damage. Another major barrier is that in some instances government
renewable energy policy may undermine and subvert market incentives, resulting in
massive expenditures that show little long-term promise for stimulating the economy,
protecting the environment, or increasing energy security. It is possible that whatever
jobs are created by renewable energy promotion may vanish as soon as federal
government support is terminated. In closing, the successful application of renewable
technology requires an understanding of sustainable development, which includes
finding a balance between three sets of goals: social, economic, and environmental. One
way to help achieve this balance is to educate people as this represents the primary
vehicle available for catalyzing cultural changes. This is critical for long term economic
and social sustainability. This is the main challenge facing us.
Increased investment and production will make solar powered desalination
more cost competitive and solve scalability
Balch, 01/28/2014
[Oliver, Policy Analyst for the Guardian, Is Solar-Powered Desalination Answer to Water
Independence for California, January 28th, 2014, http://www.theguardian.com/sustainablebusiness/solar-power-california-water]
As with all new technologies, the key consideration is whether the idea is scalable. The first
question is whether the science actually works. The initial pilots look promising. WaterFX's test facility, which started
operations six months ago, is successfully producing up to 14,000 gallons of fresh water a day. Plans are now under way to
expand the demonstration project, which will push up its capacity to 65,000 gallons a day over the same 6,500 sq ft area.¶ A
big stumbling block is cost. Solar-powered desalination currently averages about $1.52$2.05 per cubic metre of water produced, depending on technology, energy costs and
location, according to the World Bank. Conventionally, alternatives typically cost half that
or less . The cubic-metre costs of desalinised water in Israel's traditional Hadera and (newer) Sorek plants, for example, are
$0.65 and $0.52 respectively.¶ Mandell insists that the technology promises to become more pricecompetitive as production increases. "If 70% of your cost is fuel production for traditional
desalination and you want to scale up, the cost goes up significantly, unlike solar
desalination," he says. That logic is truer still if oil and gas prices increase in the future. Advances
in concentrated solar power will drive efficiency savings, too.¶ Either way, don't expect renewable desalination or its
supporters to go into retirement any time soon.
Warming Advantage
SQ Desal Fails – Laundry List
Traditional methods of desalination and water infrastructure are bad for the
environment
Marks 13
[Michael, writer at StateImpact Texas, “Is This Chip the Key to Desalination?”, July 31st 2013,
http://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2013/07/31/is-this-chip-the-key-to-desalination/]
Powering the plants and transporting the water often requires the use of fossil fuels,
which can be costly and hurt the environment. Waste from desalination can also effect
the marine life that lives near the plant itself.¶ Currently, the most prevalent desalination
technique is reverse osmosis, which uses differences in pressure to filter water through a membrane.¶ Although reverse osmosis
can be performed on a large scale, the technique presents certain challenges in terms of
cost and efficiency. Microorganisms that live in the water can damage the fragile membranes, so any water run through them must first be pretreated with chlorine, which is
expensive.¶
Current methods of desalination harm the environment
Paster 9
[Pablo, Energy and Sustainability Management consultant at Hara Software, “What’s the
Problem With Desalination?”, September 15th, 2009, http://www.treehugger.com/cleantechnology/ask-pablo-whats-the-problem-with-desalination.html]
Two main processes are used to desalinate water; membrane filtration and distillation.
Membrane filtration is gaining popularity and includes reverse osmosis (RO) filtration. Because RO requires forcing the
sea water through progressively smaller membranes it also requires a lot of energy for pumping. The other
method, distillation, which currently accounts for 85% of global distillation capacity, uses
heat to evaporate and condense water, leaving salt and minerals behind. This process
obviously requires a lot of heat energy, but generating a vacuum in the distillation chamber can lower the boiling
point of water and increase efficiency.¶ So What's The Problem With Desalination¶ It's obvious that the massive
amounts of energy used in desalination contribute to climate change-causing greenhouse
gas emissions, possibly exacerbating the local drought conditions that require use of
desalination in the first place. There are additional issues with the incoming and outgoing (waste) water. Inlet
water from the ocean often contains fish and other sea life and passing through the
desalination plant kills these organisms. Slowing the speed of the inlet water by using larger pipes can allow
fish to escape by simply swimming back out.¶ On the outlet side the effluent of desalination plants is a brine that is far too salty
for the marine life that it comes into contact with. Some desalination plants create sea salt for additional revenue, eliminating
the need for any effluent. Another
solution is to dilute the brine with the cooling water of a
nearby power plant, or just with ocean water.¶ Are There Renewable Distillation Technologies?¶ Aside from
the obvious use of solar photovoltaic or wind-generated electricity desalination can use waste heat from a nearby power plant
or solar energy can be used directly in solar distillation. Similar to a solar still that you might use in an emergency survival
situation in the desert or on a life raft, solar distillation uses the suns energy to evaporate water and then condense it. The
drawback of this technology is that it yields relatively little fresh water and requires a
large area. On a small scale a solar still is very effective but it isn't feasible for supplying
water to a city or for irrigation of fields.¶ As with energy, the cheapest form of drinking water is water that is
conserved. For a fraction of the cost of building and operating a desalination plant a community can support and fund water
conservation efforts. These can include assistance with drought resistant landscaping, incentives for the removal of lawns, free
replacement shower heads and subsidized replacement of water-using appliances, allowing and encouraging the use of
graywater, and progressive water rates that punish heavy users.
SQ Desal Fails – GHG Emissions
Current desalination methods produce massive GHG emissions – renewable
alternatives are key
Rizzuti, Ettouney, and Cipollina, 2k7
[Lucio Rizzuti, Hisham M. Ettouney, Andrea Cipollina, authors, “Solar Desalination for the 21st
Century: A Review of Modern Technologies and Researches on Desalination Coupled to
Renewable Energies”,
http://books.google.com/books?id=iA75bZKcilYC&dq=solar+desalination&source=gbs_navlinks_s]
Desalination processes require significant quantities of energy to achieve separation of
salts from seawater. This is highly significant as it is a cost which few of the water-short areas of the world can afford.
The installed capacity of desalinated water systems in year 2000 is about 22 million milday, which is expected to increase
drastically in the next decades. The
dramatic increase of desalinatcd water supply will create a series
to energy consumption and
environmental pollution caused by the use of fossil fuels. It has been estimated that the
production of 22 million ml/day requires about 203 million tons of oil per year (about 8.5 EJ/year or
of problems, the most significant of which are those related
2.36xlO12 kW h/year of fuel). (Kalogirou. 2005).¶ Considering the environmental problems related to the use of fossil fuels. if
oil was much more widely available, it is questionable if we could afford to burn it on the scale needed to provide everyone
with fresh water. Given current understanding of the greenhouse effect and the importance of CO; levels, this use of oil is
dcbatablct Thus, apart
from satisfying the additional energy demand, environmental pollution
would be a major concern. If desalination is accomplished by conventional technology, then
it will require burning of substantial quantities of fossil fuels and given that conventional sources of
energy are polluting, sources of energy that are not polluting will have to be deployed. Fortunately, there are many
parts of the world that are short of water but have exploitable renewable sources of
energy that could be used to drive desalination processes.¶
Current Desalination Plants Increase Global Warming
World Nuclear Association 4.30.14
(The World Nuclear Association represent the people and organizations within the Nuclear
Program. “Nuclear Desalination” http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/Non-Power-NuclearApplications/Industry/Nuclear-Desalination/)
Most desalination today uses fossil fuels, and thus contributes to
increased levels of greenhouse gases. Total world capacity in mid-2012 was 80 million m³/day
(29,200 GL/yr) of potable water, in some 15,000 plants. A majority of these are in the Middle East and north Africa.
The largest plant – the $3.8 billion Al-Jubail 2 in Saudi Arabia – has 948,000 m3/day (346 GL/yr) MED-TVC capacity,
plus 2745 MWe power generation using gas turbines. The Saudi Saline Water Conversion Corporation (SWCC)
takes about 62% of output to supply Riyadh. Two-thirds of the world capacity is processing seawater, and one third
uses brackish artesian water. New plants with total capacity of 6 million m3/d are expected to come on line in 2013,
The major technology in use and being
built today is reverse osmosis (RO) driven by electric pumps which
pressurise water and force it through a membrane against its osmotic
pressure*. This accounted for 60% of 2011 world capacity. A thermal process, multi-stage
flash (MSF) distillation process using steam, was earlier prominent and it is
capable of using waste heat from power plants. It accounted for 26% of capacity in 2011.
With brackish water, RO is much more cost-effective, though MSF gives
purer water than RO. A minority of plants use multiple-effect distillation (MED – 8% of world capacity) or
according to the International Desalination Association.
multi-effect vapour compression (MVC) or a combination of these, eg MED-TVC with thermal vapour compression.
MSF-RO hybrid plants exploit the best features of each technology for different quality products. Desalination is
energy-intensive. Reverse Osmosis needs up to 6 kWh of electricity per cubic metre of water (depending on both
process and its original salt content), though the latest RO plants such as in Perth, Western Australia, use 3.5
kWh/m3, or 4 kWh/m3 including pumping for distribution. Hence 1 MWe continuous will produce about 4000 to 6000
m3 per day from seawater. MSF and MED require heat at 70-130°C and use 25-200 kWh/m³, though a newer
version of MED (MED-MVC) is reported at 10 kWh/m3 and competitive with RO. Desalination is energy-intensive.
Reverse Osmosis needs up to 6 kWh of electricity per cubic metre of water (depending on both process and its
original salt content), though the latest RO plants such as in Perth, Western Australia, use 3.5 kWh/m3, or 4 kWh/m3
including pumping for distribution. Hence 1 MWe continuous will produce about 4000 to 6000 m3 per day from
seawater. MSF and MED require heat at 70-130°C and use 25-200 kWh/m³, though a newer version of MED (MED-
A variety of low-temperature and
waste heat sources may be used, including solar energy, so the above kilowatt-hour
MVC) is reported at 10 kWh/m3 and competitive with RO.
figures are not properly comparable. For brackish water and reclamation of municipal wastewater RO requires only
about 1 kWh/m3. The choice of process generally depends on the relative economic values of fresh water and
particular fuels, and whether cogeneration is a possibility.
SQ Desal Fails – Brine
Non-renewable desalination causes serious environmental damage
SCCG, 2k13
[Sydney Coastal Councils Group, voluntary Regional Organisation of Councils (ROC) established under the Local Government Act,
Author, “Desalination Fact Sheet” http://www.sydneycoastalcouncils.com.au/About_SCCG¶]
Environmental impacts associated with concentrated discharge have historically been
considered the major environmental concern with desalination plants. By some estimates,
a desalination plant at Kurnell could produce 1.5 billion litres of brine a day to be released
back to the ocean.¶ Further, desalination plants produce liquid wastes that may contain all
or some of the following constituents:¶ • high salt concentrations, chemicals used during defouling of
plant equipment and pre-treatment, and¶ • Toxic metals (which are most likely to be present if the discharge water was in
contact with metallic materials used in construction of the plant facilities).¶ Liquid wastes may be:¶ • discharged
directly into the ocean;¶ • combined with other discharges (e.g., power plant cooling water or sewage¶ treatment
plant effluent) before ocean discharge;¶ • discharged into a sewer for treatment in a sewage treatment plant, or¶ • dried out.¶
The environmental impacts of liquid waste treatment will vary depending on factors including the location of a desalination
plant and method of waste disposal. Potential
environmental impacts resulting from the increased
turbidity, reduced oxygen levels and increased density of any discharged waste water
would need to be fully addressed in an EIS.¶ Desalination plants also produce a small amount of
solid waste (e.g., spent pre- treatment filters and solid particles that are filtered out in the pre-treatment process) that
would have to be disposed of in land fill.
The Desalinization Process Kills Millions of Organisims
Scripps' Center for Marine Biotechnology and Biomedicine, 09 (“The Impacts of
Relying on Desalination For Water” June 20th 2009
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-impacts-of-relying-on-desalination/)
The relationship between desalinization and climate change is complex. Global warming has increased droughts around the
world and turned formerly verdant landscapes into near deserts. Some long held fresh water sources are simply no longer
reliably available to hundreds of millions of people around the world. Meanwhile, expanding populations in desert areas are
putting intense pressure on existing fresh water supplies, forcing communities to turn to desalinization as the most expedient
way to satisfy their collective thirst. But the
process of desalinization burns up many more fossil fuels
than sourcing the equivalent amount of fresh water from fresh water bodies. As such, the very
proliferation of desalinization plants around the world‚ some 13,000 already supply fresh water in 120 nations, primarily in the
Middle East, North Africa and Caribbean, is both a reaction to and one of many contributors to global warming. Beyond the
links to climate problems, marine biologists
warn that widespread desalinization could take a
heavy toll on ocean biodiversity; as such facilities' intake pipes essentially vacuum up and
inadvertently kill millions of plankton, fish eggs, fish larvae and other microbial organisms
that constitute the base layer of the marine food chain. And, according to Jeffrey Graham of the
Scripps Institute of Oceanography's Center for Marine Biotechnology and Biomedicine, the salty sludge leftover
after desalinization for every gallon of freshwater produced, another gallon of doubly
concentrated salt water must be disposed of can wreak havoc on marine ecosystems if
dumped willy-nilly offshore. For some desalinization operations, says Graham, it is thought that the disappearance
of some organisms from discharge areas may be related to the salty outflow. Of course, as supplies of fresh water dwindle, the
economic cost of desalinization‚ especially in coastal areas with easy access to ocean water‚ begins to look competitive with
traditional water sourcing. To date there are about 300 desalinization plants in the United States, with 120 in Florida and less
than 40 each in Texas and California. Some 20 additional plants are planned for the coast of California in the coming years,
unless environmentalists extolling the virtues of conservation and wielding low-flow shower heads and toilets prevail.
Solvency – Solar Desal Key
Solar desalination is environmentally friendly
Walker 13
[Kris , Author, “How Solar Desalination Can Help the Environment” January 4th, 2013
http://www.azocleantech.com/article.aspx?ArticleID=344#6]
Solar desalination is primarily a zero-carbon emission process and the advancements in
solar technology enables overcoming previously existing problems like dust and high temperatures,
which affected the efficiency of previously used solar panels. In 2011, the Environment AgencyAbu Dhabi (EAD) tested cutting-edge solar technologies for desalinating water in the desert.
The trial conducted at 30 sites in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi was said to be the largest across the globe. Each unit set at the
solar desalination facilities in Sweihan and Hameem could generate 35 kW/h of energy on average
and thus produce 1050 kW/h of energy on the whole. This shows that the negative impact
of desalination process on the environment as well as the cost of producing water can be
reduced using the solar desalination technology.
Solar Desalination is a better alternative- less harms to the environment than
systems like power grids
Rizzuti, Ettouney, and Cipollina, 2k7
Lucio Rizzuti, Hisham M. Ettouney, Andrea Cipollina, authors, “Solar Desalination for the 21st Century: A Review of Modern
Technologies and Researches on Desalination Coupled to Renewable Energies”,
http://books.google.com/books?id=iA75bZKcilYC&dq=solar+desalination&source=gbs_navlinks_
s
The origin and continuation of mankind is based on water. Water is one of the most abundant resources on earth.v covering
three-fourths ofthc planet’s surface. However. about 97% of the earth’s water is salt sea water. and only 3% is fresh water. This
small percentage of the earth's water -to satisfy most of human and animal needs-, exists in ground water, lakes and rivers.
The only nearly inexhaustible sources of water are the seas which, however, are of high salinity. It
would be feasible
to address the water-shortage problem with seawater desalination; however, in order to
subtract the salts from seawater requires large amounts of energy which, if produced
from fossil fuels, will harm the environment. Therefore, there is a need to utilize
environmentally-friendly energy sources to desalinate seawater.Renewable energy
sources (RES) coupled to desalination offer a promising prospect for covering the fundamental
needs of power and water especially in remote regions, where connection to the public
electricity grid is either not cost effective or not feasible, and where the water scarcity is
severe.
Solar desalination has environmental benefits and will sustain
Rizzuti, Lucio, and Hisham, 2k7
[Rizzuti, Lucio, Hisham Mohamed. Ettouney, and Andrea Cipollina. Solar Desalination for the
21st Century: A Review of Modern Technologies and Researches on Desalination Coupled to
Renewable Energies:. Dordrecht: Springer, 2007. Print.]
Desalination combined with solar energy provides one of the most¶ attractive sustainable
sources of fresh water and energy. Researchers have¶ investigated and developed several promising
configurations. Although¶ many of these systems have relatively high cost, when compared to¶ conventional
desalination or fossil fuel power, it is important to consider¶ environmental benefits and source
sustainability. Also, the higher cost is¶ caused in part by the small scale of the tested units.¶
Development of hybrids of solar desalination and power on site with¶ existing large desalination and power plants might be a
good starting point.¶ Several schemes for solar desalination and power could be immediately¶ combined with either thermal
or membrane desalination processes. Hence,¶ accumulated
field experience should result in expansion
and growth of the¶ most successful and promising schemes.
Solvency – Gov’t Regulation
The U.S. should implement policies that require new and existing
desalination plants to use renewable energy sources
Saidi 13
(September 02, 2013, Dr. Nasser Saidi former Chief Economist and Head of External Relations of Dubai
International Financial Centre and Executive Direction of the Hawkamah-Institute for Corporate
Governance, “Renewables—based Desalination: A Solution to MENA’s Water Crisis”, Renewable Energy
World http://www.renewableenergyworld.com/rea/news/article/2013/09/renewables-baseddesalination-a-solution-to-menas-water-crisis -PW-)
Indeed, in the richer countries of the Gulf water scarcity is mostly dealt with through desalination plants.
However, current desalination solutions are costly, energy intensive and lead to environmental
degradation. This is in large part due to the technology's reliance on fossil fuels. This will only get
worse with time as energy costs rise with competition for limited fossil fuel reserves and as
hydrocarbons are likely in the future to be charged the additional costs of mandatory CO2
sequestration. There is a need to develop less polluting and more energy efficient desalination
plants.¶ The answer is to wed renewable energy and desalination . Saudi Arabia has taken the lead with its
announcement to develop and use solar-powered desalination plants. This is a wise strategic choice. The World Bank
commissioned multiple intensive background studies to release its “Renewable Energy Desalination: An Emerging Solution to
Close MENA’s Water Gap” report. Researchers found that coupling renewable energy sources with
desalination could provide a win-win solution for the region's water woes. ¶ While marveling at MENA’s
annual combined potential of wind power, biomass, geothermal, and hydropower that equal approximately 830 trillion watthours, the report also pointed out the benefit of clean energy desalination. It was estimated that adoption of CSP desalination
would bring considerable environmental advantages. An increased share of CSP-RO desalination allied with the more efficient
CSP thermal desalination would reduce annual brine production by nearly half (from 240 km3 to 140 km3) as well as greatly
reduce CO2 emissions. Switching to renewables for electricity needs overall has large benefits. Increasing renewable
energy could cut MENA’s annual CO2 emissions to 265 million tons as opposed to the 1,500 million
tons by 2050, which experts estimate will be produced with continued use of fossil
fuels.¶ Renewables-based desalination should become a clear policy priority for addressing water
scarcity in the MENA region. The Clean Energy Business Council is engaged in promoting the policies and technologies that
can enable a smarter & cleaner energy infrastructure for the MENA region based on low-carbon renewables and energy
efficiency. Our goal is to help create an energy ecosystem that is resource efficient, does not
contribute to climate change, while addressing not only the region’s severe water scarcity, but the
related complications associated with polluting energy technologies.
Warming ! UQ – Real + Anthropogenic
Warming is real, human caused, and the predictions of its impacts are not
exaggerated, even former skeptics agree
Muller in 12
[Richard A., professor of physics at the University of California, Berkeley, and a former
MacArthur Foundation fellow, is the author, most recently, of “Energy for Future Presidents:
The Science Behind the Headlines.” “The Conversion of a Climate-Change Skeptic”
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/30/opinion/the-conversion-of-a-climate-changeskeptic.html?_r=2&pagewanted=all]
CALL me a converted skeptic. Three years ago I identified problems in previous climate studies that, in my mind, threw doubt
on the very existence of global warming. Last year,
following an intensive research effort involving a
dozen scientists, I concluded that global warming was real and that the prior estimates of
the rate of warming were correct. I’m now going a step further: Humans are almost
entirely the cause. My total turnaround, in such a short time, is the result of careful and
objective analysis by the Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project, which I founded with my
daughter Elizabeth. Our results show that the average temperature of the earth’s land has risen by
two and a half degrees Fahrenheit over the past 250 years, including an increase of one
and a half degrees over the most recent 50 years. Moreover, it appears likely that essentially
all of this increase results from the human emission of greenhouse gases. These findings
are stronger than those of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the United Nations
group that defines the scientific and diplomatic consensus on global warming. In its 2007 report, the I.P.C.C. concluded only
that most of the warming of the prior 50 years could be attributed to humans. It was possible, according to the I.P.C.C.
consensus statement, that the warming before 1956 could be because of changes in solar activity, and that even a substantial
part of the more recent warming could be natural. Our
Berkeley Earth approach used sophisticated
statistical methods developed largely by our lead scientist, Robert Rohde, which allowed
us to determine earth land temperature much further back in time. We carefully studied
issues raised by skeptics: biases from urban heating (we duplicated our results using rural data alone),
from data selection (prior groups selected fewer than 20 percent of the available temperature stations; we used
virtually 100 percent), from poor station quality (we separately analyzed good stations and poor ones) and from
human intervention and data adjustment (our work is completely automated and hands-off). In our
papers we demonstrate that none of these potentially troublesome effects unduly biased
our conclusions. The historic temperature pattern we observed has abrupt dips that match the emissions of known
explosive volcanic eruptions; the particulates from such events reflect sunlight, make for beautiful sunsets and cool the earth’s
surface for a few years. There are small, rapid variations attributable to El Niño and other ocean currents such as the Gulf
Stream; because of such oscillations, the “flattening” of the recent temperature rise that some people claim is not, in our view,
What has caused the gradual but systematic rise of two and a half
degrees? We tried fitting the shape to simple math functions (exponentials, polynomials),
to solar activity and even to rising functions like world population. By far the best match
was to the record of atmospheric carbon dioxide, measured from atmospheric samples
and air trapped in polar ice. Just as important, our record is long enough that we could search for the fingerprint of
statistically significant.
solar variability, based on the historical record of sunspots. That fingerprint is absent. Although the I.P.C.C. allowed for the
possibility that variations in sunlight could have ended the “Little Ice Age,” a period of cooling from the 14th century to about
1850, our data argues strongly that the temperature rise of the past 250 years cannot be attributed to solar changes. This
conclusion is, in retrospect, not too surprising; we’ve learned from satellite measurements that solar activity changes the
brightness of the sun very little. How definite is the attribution to humans? The carbon dioxide curve gives a better match than
anything else we’ve tried. Its magnitude is consistent with the calculated greenhouse effect — extra warming from trapped
heat radiation. These facts don’t prove causality and they shouldn’t end skepticism, but they raise the bar: to be considered
seriously, an alternative explanation must match the data at least as well as carbon dioxide does. Adding methane, a second
greenhouse gas, to our analysis doesn’t change the results.
Moreover, our analysis does not depend on
large, complex global climate models, the huge computer programs that are notorious for
their hidden assumptions and adjustable parameters. Our result is based simply on the
close agreement between the shape of the observed temperature rise and the known
greenhouse gas increase.
Warming is real and anthropogenic
C2ES 11 (Center for Climate and Energy Solutions - successor to the Pew Center on Global
Climate Change, and recently named the world’s top environmental think tank, "Science FAQs,"
http://www.c2es.org/global-warming-basics/faq_s/glance_faq_science.cfm)
A more detailed, state-of-the-art attribution of various climate trends is possible using optimal fingerprinting approaches that
match individual forcings (for example, greenhouse gases, solar intensity or airborne particles) to observed climate change
patterns using global climate models. This technique has detected human-induced trends in a wide variety of climate variables
including land surface warming, vertical warming of the oceans, loss of Arctic sea ice cover, and changes in precipitation
patterns at different latitudes on the Earth.
Observations of global land and ocean surface warming
and warming of all continents except Antarctica show that no combination of forcings that
excludes manmade greenhouse gases can explain the warming trend of the past halfcentury (see figure). Top How do we know greenhouse gases are increasing because of
human activity? Some greenhouse gases (GHG), such as industrial halocarbons, are only
made by humans, and thus their presence in the atmosphere can only be explained by
human activity. For naturally occurring GHG, several independent lines of evidence make it crystal clear that they are
increasing because of human activities: First, CO2, methane, and nitrous oxide concentrations were stable for thousands of
years. Suddenly, they began to rise like a rocket around 200 years ago, about the time that humans began to engage in very
large-scale agriculture and industry (see figure). Second,
scientists and economists have developed
estimates of all the natural and human GHG sources. When they add them up, only the
human contributions are increasing. In fact, the amount of human-made GHG in the budget are more than
enough to explain the rise in concentrations, which means that natural processes are absorbing the excess amount, keeping
GHG concentrations from rising even more. For CO2, the most important human-produced GHG, scientists can tell from
chemical measurements of the atmosphere that the additional
CO2 is from: combustion (i.e. burning
fossil fuels) because the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere is decreasing in direct
proportion to the rise in CO2; a prehistoric (fossil) source because the amount of
radioactive carbon in the atmosphere has been decreasing over the past century; from
plants (i.e. ancient trees that became coal and oil) rather than a geological source (i.e.
volcanoes). Together, all of these independent lines of evidence leave no doubt that GHG
concentrations are increasing because of human activities.
Warming Impacts – EXTN and Biodiversity
Warming has dire consequences
Deibel 7
[Terry, "Foreign Affairs Strategy: Logic of American Statecraft," Conclusion: American Foreign
Affairs Strategy Today]
Finally, there
is one major existential threat to American security (as well as prosperity) of a nonviolent
is the threat of global warming to
the stability of the climate upon which all earthly life depends. Scientists
worldwide have been observing the gathering of this threat for three decades
now, and what was once a mere possibility has passed through probability to
near certainty. Indeed not one of more than 900 articles on climate change
published in refereed scientific journals from 1993 to 2003 doubted that
anthropogenic warming is occurring. “In legitimate scientific circles,” writes Elizabeth Kolbert, “it is
virtually impossible to find evidence of disagreement over the fundamentals of
global warming.” Evidence from a vast international scientific monitoring effort
accumulates almost weekly, as this sample of newspaper reports shows: an
international panel predicts “brutal droughts, floods and violent storms across
the planet over the next century”; climate change could “literally alter ocean currents, wipe away huge portions of
nature, which, though far in the future, demands urgent action. It
Alpine Snowcaps and aid the spread of cholera and malaria”; “glaciers in the Antarctic and in Greenland are melting much
faster than expected, and…worldwide, plants are blooming several days earlier than a decade ago”; “rising sea
temperatures have been accompanied by a significant global increase in the most destructive hurricanes”; “NASA
scientists have concluded from direct temperature measurements that 2005 was the hottest year on record, with 1998 a
close second”; “Earth’s warming climate is estimated to contribute to more than 150,000 deaths and 5 million illnesses
each year” as disease spreads; “widespread bleaching from Texas to Trinidad…killed broad swaths of corals” due to a 2degree rise in sea temperatures. “The world is slowly disintegrating,” concluded Inuit hunter Noah Metuq, who lives 30
miles from the Arctic Circle. “They call it climate change…but we just call it breaking up.” From the founding of the first
cities some 6,000 years ago until the beginning of the industrial revolution, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere
remained relatively constant at about 280 parts per million (ppm). At present they are accelerating toward 400 ppm, and
by 2050 they will reach 500 ppm, about double pre-industrial levels. Unfortunately, atmospheric CO2 lasts about a
century, so there is no way immediately to reduce levels, only to slow their increase, we
are thus in for
significant global warming; the only debate is how much and how serous the
effects will be. As the newspaper stories quoted above show, we are already experiencing the effects of 1-2 degree
warming in more violent storms, spread of disease, mass die offs of plants and animals, species extinction,
and threatened inundation of low-lying countries like the Pacific nation of Kiribati and the
Netherlands at a warming of 5 degrees or less the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets could disintegrate, leading
to a sea level of rise of 20 feet that would cover North Carolina’s outer banks,
swamp the southern third of Florida, and inundate Manhattan up to the middle of Greenwich Village.
Another catastrophic effect would be the collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline
circulation that keeps the winter weather in Europe far warmer than its latitude would otherwise allow. Economist
William Cline once estimated the damage to the United States alone from moderate levels of warming at 1-6 percent of
GDP annually; severe warming could cost 13-26 percent of GDP. But the
most frightening scenario is
runaway greenhouse warming, based on positive feedback from the buildup of
water vapor in the atmosphere that is both caused by and causes hotter surface
temperatures. Past ice age transitions, associated with only 5-10 degree changes in average global temperatures,
took place in just decades, even though no one was then pouring ever-increasing amounts of carbon into the atmosphere.
Faced with this specter, the best one can conclude is that “humankind’s continuing enhancement of the natural
greenhouse effect is akin to playing Russian roulette with the earth’s climate and humanity’s life support system. At
worst, says physics professor Marty Hoffert of New York University, “we’re
just going to burn
everything up; we’re going to het the atmosphere to the temperature it was in the Cretaceous when there were
crocodiles at the poles, and then everything will collapse.” During the Cold War, astronomer Carl Sagan
popularized a theory of nuclear winter to describe how a thermonuclear war between the Untied States and the Soviet
Union would not only destroy both countries but possible end life on this planet. Global
warming is the
post-Cold War era’s equivalent of nuclear winter at least as serious and
considerably better supported scientifically. Over the long run it puts dangers form
terrorism and traditional military challenges to shame. It is a threat not only to
the security and prosperity to the United States, but potentially to the continued
existence of life on this planet.
Warming causes biodiversity loss, storms, and agriculture
Weart, 2k11
[Spencer Weart, Director of the Center for History of Physics of the American Institute of
Physics, December 2011, The Discovery of Global Warming]
A large body of scientific studies, exhaustively reviewed, has produced a long list of possibilities.
Nobody can say that any of the items on the list are certain to happen. But the world's climate experts almost all agree that the
The
following are the likely consequences of warming by a few degrees Celsius — that is, what we
may expect if humanity manages to begin restraining its emissions soon, so that greenhouse
impacts listed below are more likely than not to happen. For some items, the probabilities range up to almost certain.
gases do not rise beyond twice the pre-industrial level. Without strong action the doubling will come well before the end of
this century, bringing the planet to temperatures not seen since the spread of agriculture. By 2007, many of the predicted
changes were observed to be actually happening. For details see reports referenced in this footnote: (22) * Most
places
will continue to get warmer, especially at night and in winter. The temperature change
will benefit some regions while harming others — for example, patterns of tourism will shift. The warmer
winters will improve health and agriculture in some areas, but globally, mortality will rise and food supplies
will be endangered due to more frequent and extreme summer heat waves and other
effects. Regions not directly harmed will suffer indirectly from higher food prices and a
press of refugees from afflicted regions. * Sea levels will continue to rise for many
centuries. The last time the planet was 3°C warmer than now, the sea level was at least 6
meters (20 feet) higher.(23) That submerged coastlines where many millions of people
now live, including cities from New York to Shanghai. The rise will probably be so gradual that later
generations can simply abandon their parents' homes, but a ruinously swift rise cannot be entirely ruled out. Meanwhile storm
surges will cause emergencies. <=Sea rise & ice * Weather patterns will keep changing toward an intensified water cycle with
stronger floods and droughts. Most regions now subject to droughts will probably get drier (because of warmth as well as less
precipitation), and most wet regions will get wetter. Extreme weather events will become more frequent and worse. In
particular, storms with more intense rainfall are liable to bring worse floods. Some places will get more snowstorms, but most
mountain glaciers and winter snowpack will shrink, jeopardizing important water supply systems. Each of these things has
already begun to happen in some regions.(24) Drought in the 2060s * Ecosystems will
be stressed, although
some managed agricultural and forestry systems will benefit, at least in the early decades
of warming. Uncounted valuable species, especially in the Arctic, mountain areas, and
tropical seas, must shift their ranges. Many that cannot will face extinction. A variety of pests
and tropical diseases are expected to spread to warmed regions. These problems have already been observed in numerous
* Increased carbon dioxide levels will affect biological systems independent of
climate change. Some crops will be fertilized, as will some invasive weeds (the balance of
benefit vs. harm is uncertain). The oceans will continue to become markedly more acidic, gravely endangering
coral reefs, and probably harming fisheries and other marine life. <=Biosphere * There will be significant
unforeseen impacts. Most of these will probably be harmful, since human and natural
systems are well adapted to the present climate. The climate system and ecosystems are
complex and only partly understood, so there is a chance that the impacts will not be as
places.
bad as predicted. There is a similar chance of impacts grievously worse than predicted. If
the CO2 level keeps rising to well beyond twice the pre-industrial level along with a rise of
other greenhouse gases, as must inevitably happen if we do not take strong action soon,
the results will certainly be worse. Under a "business as usual" scenario, recent calculations give even odds that
global temperature will rise 5°C or more by the end of the century — causing a radical reorganization and impoverishment of
All this is projected to happen to people who are
now alive. What of the more distant future? If emissions continue to rise for a century —
whether because we fail to rein them in, or because we set off an unstoppable feedback
loop in which the warming itself causes ever more greenhouse gases to be evaporated into the air
many of the ecosystems that sustain our civilization.(25)
— then the gases will reach a level that the Earth has not seen since tens of millions of years ago. The consequences will take
several centuries to be fully realized, as the Earth settles into its new state. It is probable that, as in the distant geological eras
with high CO2, sea levels will be many tens of meters higher and the average global temperature will soar far above the
present value: a planet grossly unlike the one to which the human species is adapted.
Warming – A2: Skeptics
Warming real - consensus
Brooks 12 - Staff writer, KQED news (Jon, staff writer, KQED news, citing Craig Miller,
environmental scientist, 5/3/12, "Is Climate Change Real? For the Thousandth Time, Yes," KQED
News, http://blogs.kqed.org/newsfix/2012/05/03/is-climate-change-real-for-the-thousandthtime-yes/)
BROOKS: So what are the organizations that say climate change is real ? MILLER: Virtually ever
major, credible scientific organization in the world. It’s not just the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change. Organizations like the National Academy of Sciences, the American Geophysical Union,
the American Association for the Advancement of Science. And that's echoed in most
countries around the world. All of the most credible, most prestigious scientific organizations
accept the fundamental findings of the IPCC. The last comprehensive report from the IPCC, based on research,
came out in 2007. And at that time, they said in this report, which is known as AR-4, that there is "very high confidence"
that the net effect of human activities since 1750 has been one of warming. Scientists are very careful,
unusually careful, about how they put things. But then they say "very likely," or "very high confidence," they’re talking 90%.
BROOKS: So it’s not 100%? MILLER: In the realm of science; there’s
virtually never 100% certainty about
anything. You know, as someone once pointed out, gravity is a theory. BROOKS: Gravity is testable, though... Virtually
every major credible scientific organization in the world says climate change is real. MILLER: You're
right. You can’t drop a couple of balls off of the Leaning Tower of Pisa to prove climate change. That’s why we have to rely on
mathematical models to try to figure out where this is all going. And that's difficult. But it’s not impossible, as some people like to
paint it. You know, the people doing the models are not inept. Over the past nearly four years, Climate Watch has interviewed a lot
of scientists, attended conferences, read academic papers. To me, as what you might call an informed observer, the vast
preponderance of scientific evidence supports this notion that the Earth is warming and that human activity is a significant cause.
BROOKS: Are there legitimate debunkers of this proposition? MILLER: Certainly there
are legitimate scientists on the
other side of the question. If you take, for example, a guy by the name of John Christy from the University of Alabama, who is very
strongly identified with climate change skeptics. That doesn’t mean that his work is invalidated. He came out recently with a study
that basically refuted the idea that there’s been an observable shrinkage in the snow pack of the Sierra Nevada. And we talked to
other scientists who do believe in anthropogenic or human-induced global warming and do believe that the Sierra snow pack is
going to be shrinking, who thought that this study was sound. But that’s one study in a sea of studies. And you
have look at
the preponderance of the evidence and not at any one particular study, not any particular year,
not even any particular ten years, because even a 10-year trend does not necessarily constitute climate change. BROOKS: What are
some of the metrics scientists have looked at to come to the conclusion that human-caused climate change is real? MILLER: They
study temperature records. There have been tidal gauges in place for a long time, looking at sea-level rise, and also
augmented now by satellite data that measure with greater accuracy the rate of the rise. They’ve looked at things like ice
cores from Greenland and elsewhere which gives us sort of a reverse chronological story of what the climate has done. And you
can actually pull one of those ice cores and see the amount of C02 that was in the atmosphere at the time. And what they've
found is what looks to be a pretty convincing relationship between the amount of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere and the behavior of the Earth’s climate. BROOKS: But there are some who refute that evidence? MILLER:
Absolutely. We’ll get people frequently commenting on our blog who will say the sea level is not rising and that there’s been no
warming for the past ten years. As I already pointed out, ten
years of anything does not constitute a definitive
pattern; it’s just too short a time span. It’s this idea of cherry-picking data, which both sides accuse the
other of doing. You have to look at the Earth’s climate over time as a really big, complicated jigsaw puzzle.
And clearly there are pieces missing. And there are pieces sitting off to the side that aren’t missing, but we don’t
quite know how they fit into the puzzle yet. But still, you see enough of the picture to know what’s going
on. The science has yielded at least -- as Stanford's Chris Field of the IPCC puts it -- a blurry picture of the future.
And the blurry picture is enough to know the general direction we’re heading, even without knowing all of the specifics. BROOKS:
Are there former critics who now acknowledge the reality of climate change? MILLER: Richard Muller would be a good example of
that. He’s the physicist over at UC Berkeley who was identified with the skeptic camp for a long time. He wasn’t
buying a lot of
climate change theory. He launched a temperature-data audit because he wasn’t convinced that the
temperature data being used by the IPCC and NOAA and others was accurate, that there were fundamental issues – they were
getting bad data, garbage in, garbage out.
Warming extremely high and increasing—current action is key to solving
Malcolm, University of Toronto, 2k
(Jay Malcolm 9/2000 http://wwf.panda.org/?2143/Speed-Kills-Rates-of-ClimateChange-are-Threatening PB)
Boston, US: Global
warming represents a rapidly worsening threat to the world's wildlife and
natural habitat. The increase of global temperatures seen in the late 20th century was
unprecedented in the last 1,000 years. Professor Tom Crowley of Texas A&M University predicts that in the 21st
century "the warming will reach truly extraordinary levels" surpassing anything in the last
400,000 years.¶ New research by the conservation organization WWF indicates that the speed with which global warming
occurs is critically important for wildlife, and that the accelerating rates of warming we can expect in the coming decades are likely
to put large numbers of species at risk.¶ Species in the higher latitudes of the northern hemisphere, where the warming will be
greatest, may have to migrate. Plants may need to move 10 times faster than they did at the end of the last ice-age. Very few plant
species can move at rates faster than one kilometer per year, and yet this is what will be required in many parts of the world.¶ The
worst affected countries are likely to be Canada and Russia, where the computer models suggest that, on average, migration rates in
excess of one kilometer per year will be required in a third or more of terrestrial habitats. High migration rates will particularly
threaten rare, isolated or slow-moving species but will favour weeds and pests that can move, reproduce or adapt fast. The kudzu
vine and Japanese honeysuckle are examples of nuisance plants in the US that will likely benefit from global warming.¶ Conditions
today make it far harder for species to move to new habitat than it was thousands of years ago. The last time the climate warmed
anywhere near as fast as it is predicted to do this century, was 13,000 years ago when sabre-toothed tigers and wooly mammoths
still roamed the earth and humans had just begun to populate the Americas.¶ At that time the whole of human society probably
numbered in the tens of millions and all were hunter gatherers. Farming and cities did not yet exist. Now,
the human
population has swelled to six billion and vast swathes of habitat across the globe have been
lost to urban development and agriculture. Any plant or animal that needs to move must contend with roads, cities
and farms.¶ The WWF study shows that human barriers to climate-induced migration will have the worst impact along the northern
edges of developed zones in central and northwestern Russia, Finland and central Canada.¶ Large-scale range shifts will have a major
effect on biodiversity if species are unable to move to find suitable conditions. For example, Mexico has the highest diversity of
reptiles in the world because of its ancient, isolated desert habitats. However, several species, including the threatened desert
tortoise may not be able to keep pace with the warming climate. In Africa, the nyala is vulnerable to expected habitat change in
Malawi's Lengwe National Park, and scientists have predicted that South Africa's red lark could lose its entire remaining habitat.¶
Reports of ecosystem changes due to recent global warming are already coming in from many parts of the world. Costa Rica's golden
toad may be extinct because of its inability to adapt to climate changes; birds such as the great tit in Scotland and the Mexican jay in
Arizona are beginning to breed earlier in the year; butterflies are shifting their ranges northwards throughout Europe; alpine plants
are moving to higher altitudes in Austria; and mammals in many parts of the Arctic - including polar bears, walrus and caribou - are
beginning to feel the impacts of reduced sea ice and warming tundra habitat.¶ A
doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere
has the potential to eventually destroy at least a third of the world's existing terrestrial
habitats, with no certainty that they will be replaced by equally diverse or productive ecosystems, or that similar ecosystems will
establish elsewhere. Unfortunately, some projections for global greenhouse gas emissions suggest that CO2 will not only double
from pre-industrial levels during the 21st Century but may in fact triple if action is not taken to rein in the
inefficient use of fossil fuels such as coal and oil for energy production.¶ Amongst the countries
likely to lose 45 per cent or more of current habitat are Russia, Canada, Kyrgyzstan, Norway,
Sweden, Finland, Latvia, Uruguay, Bhutan and Mongolia. Bhutan and Mongolia in particular
are havens for extraordinary wildlife riches to which climate change represents an alarming
new threat.¶ Local species loss may be as high as 20 per cent in the most vulnerable arctic and mountain ecosystems.
Fragmented habitats in highly sensitive regions including northern Canada, parts of eastern Siberia, Russia's Taimyr Peninsula,
northern Alaska, northern Scandinavia, the Tibetan plateau, and southeastern Australia may be most at risk.¶ Individual mountain
species that may be under threat from global warming in isolated mountain habitats include the rare Gelada baboon of Ethiopia, the
Andean spectacled bear, central America's resplendent quetzal, the mountain pygmy possum of Australia and the monarch butterfly
at its Mexican wintering grounds. Many coastal and island species will be at risk from the combined threat of warming oceans, sealevel rise and range shifts, all of which can add significantly to existing human pressures.¶ As can be seen from these examples, and
the growing body of science, an alarm is sounding.
The rate of global warming may be a critical determinant
in the future of the global biodiversity and we cannot afford to wait to reduce greenhouse
gases. Urgent action is necessary to prevent the rate of change reaching a level that will be
catastrophic for nature and which may bring about irreversible losses of our world's natural
treasures.¶
Climate change leads to massive death and economic and agricultural loss
Reuters, international news agency, 12
(Reuters 9/6/12 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/09/26/climate-changedeaths_n_1915365.html )
LONDON, Sept 26 (Reuters) - More
than 100 million people will die and the global economy will miss
out on as much as 3.2 percent of its potential output annually by 2030 if the world fails to
tackle climate change, a report commissioned by 20 governments said on Wednesday. As global average temperatures rise
due to greenhouse gas emissions, the effects on the planet, such as melting ice caps, extreme weather,
drought and rising sea levels, will threaten populations and livelihoods, said the report conducted by
humanitarian organisation DARA. It calculated that five million deaths occur each year from air
pollution, hunger and disease as a result of climate change and carbon-intensive economies,
and that toll would likely rise to six million a year by 2030 if current patterns of fossil fuel use
continue. More than 90 percent of those deaths will occur in developing countries, said the report that calculated the human and
economic impact of climate change on 184 countries in 2010 and 2030. It was commissioned by the Climate Vulnerable Forum, a
partnership of 20 developing countries threatened by climate change. "A
combined climate-carbon crisis is
estimated to claim 100 million lives between now and the end of the next decade," the report said.
It said the effects of climate change was already costing the global economy a potential 1.6
percent of annual output or about $1.2 trillion a year, and this could double to 3.2 percent by
2030 if global temperatures are allowed to rise. COUNTING THE COST Responding to the report, Oxfam
International said the costs of political inaction on climate were "staggering". "The losses to agriculture and fisheries
alone could amount to more than $500 billion per year by 2030, heavily focussed in the poorest countries
where millions depend on these sectors to make a living," said executive director Jeremy Hobbs. British economist Nicholas Stern
told Reuters earlier this year investment equivalent to 2 percent of global GDP was needed to limit, prevent and adapt to climate
change. His report on the economics of climate change in 2006 said that without any action to tackle climate change, the overall
costs and risks of climate change would be equivalent to a cut in per-capita consumption of perhaps up to 20 percent. Temperatures
have already risen by about 0.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times. Almost 200 nations agreed in 2010 to limit the global
average temperature rise to below 2C (3.6 Fahrenheit) to avoid dangerous impacts from climate change.
But climate
scientists have warned that the chance of limiting the rise to below 2C is getting smaller as
global greenhouse gas emissions rise due to burning fossil fuels. The world's poorest nations are the most
vulnerable as they face increased risk of drought, water shortages, crop failure, poverty and disease. On average, they could see an
11 percent loss in GDP by 2030 due to climate change, DARA said. "One degree Celsius rise in temperature is associated with 10
percent productivity loss in farming. For us,
it means losing about 4 million metric tonnes of food grain,
amounting to about $2.5 billion. That is about 2 percent of our GDP," Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina said in
response to the report. "Adding up the damages to property and other losses, we are faced with a
total loss of about 3-4 percent of GDP." Even the biggest and most rapidly developing economies will not escape
unscathed. The United States and China could see a 2.1 percent reduction in their potential GDPs
by 2030, while India could experience a more than 5 percent loss of potential output.¶
Economy Advantage
UQ – Econ Down Now
Experts predict downturn in future global economic growth
Elliot, 14
(Larry Elliot is the co-author of three books about the global economy and the economics editor of the
Guardian. June 11, 2014. “World Bank cuts global economic growth forecast”
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/jun/11/world-bank-cuts-global-growth-forecast
-ES-)
The World Bank has cut its growth forecast for the global economy in 2014 following a
weak start to the year in both rich and poor countries. Bad weather in the US, tension in the Ukraine,
the slowdown in China and political strife in countries such as Turkey will all delay an expected pick-up in activity,
the bank said in its half-yearly Global Economic Prospects.¶ Its president, Jim Kim, expressed
disappointment at the prospect of a third straight year of sub-5% growth in the
developing world, which he said was insufficient to meet his aim of eradicating extreme poverty by 2030.¶
"Growth rates in the developing world remain far too modest to create the kind of jobs we need to improve the lives
of the poorest 40%," Kim said.¶ "Clearly, countries need to move faster and invest more in domestic structural
"The
bank expects the global economy to grow by 2.8% compared with the 3.2% predicted in
January. Developing country expansion has been revised down from 5.3% to 4.8%, while expansion in highreforms to get broad-based economic growth to levels needed to end extreme poverty in our generation.
income countries has been shaved from 2.2% to 1.9%.¶ After a sluggish start to 2014, the bank expects activity to
accelerate during the rest of the year and for global growth to be 3.4% in 2015 and 3.5% in 2016. A stronger
performance by the US and a slow recovery in the eurozone are expected to help developing countries by acting as
the bank remains concerned about a number of factors that
could hit the developing world – financial turmoil prompted by an end to the heavy doses of financial
markets for their exports.¶ However,
stimulus used by central banks over the past five years; the possibility of a hard landing in China, and the
vulnerability of some emerging market economies.¶
UQ – Coastal Econ Down
US coastal cities’ economies struggle because of water shortages
Wenger 14
Paul Wenger is president of the California Farm Bureau Federation.
http://www.modbee.com/2014/06/17/3393811/californias-water-woes-cant-be.html?sp=/99/1641/
The severe drought of 2014 has unleashed a flood of responses, including calls for draconian legislative
action to prevent things from “getting worse” and wide-ranging discussions about a water bond
intended to address some of our water infrastructure shortfalls, accompanied by the predictable studies
from environmental organizations purporting to show that California can meet all its water needs through conservation alone.¶
Because agriculture is identified as the largest user of “developed” water, farmers have gotten no end of advice from academics,
regulators, environmentalists and the media, about what crops they should grow, and how and where they should grow them. Many
have said we should not be growing thirsty crops in arid California, but they never say where else our food could or should be grown.
In a rain forest? In the Arctic? Why not elsewhere the United States? Well, in order to grow crops that people want and need, you
need arable soils, favorable weather – and water.¶ California has a unique combination of those variables. If it were its own nation,
California would rank as the sixth-largest food producer in the world. It is the world technology leader in production of food and
fiber, due in no small part to our capable public universities and Cooperative Extension service. In fact, California farmers and
ranchers have roughly doubled their crop production during the past 45 years while using nearly the same amount of water.¶
Despite that success, we are constantly told that we must conserve our way to “new” water. Water
conservation should
always be encouraged. Waste is unacceptable under any circumstances. But anyone thinking he or she can
conserve our constrained water supplies to meet the needs of our growing state should explain how
you can take a $10 bill and conserve enough of it to make it a $20 bill.¶ Conservation without new
water storage has been the old and tired solution California leaders have followed for 30 years.¶
Here is what 30 years of conservation without new storage has given us: Severe water
shortages after one very dry year on the back of two below-normal years; productive orchards bulldozed in the
Central Valley; hundreds of thousands of acres of food-producing land left idle; thousands
jobless; a projected $1.7 billion economic loss in the Central Valley alone.¶ Groundwater tables are
falling because surface water supplies have been so strictly reduced. As farmers have switched to low-flow irrigation techniques, less
water has been returned to the ground through percolation. Groundwater recharge will not happen in our concreted cities; it must
happen in our open landscapes that are properly managed. Farms can grow crops and help replenish underground aquifers if they’re
allowed to be managed according to their unique situations – and if adequate surface water supplies return, to reduce groundwater
demand.¶ It’s time for a change from failed and limited “conservation only” remedies. I don’t buy the fatalist idea that California has
hit its limits. If our state is to be home to 50 million residents by 2025, and if we want to grow local food for those residents, we
must invest in our water infrastructure. That’s especially true if, as some predict, climate change leads to a smaller Sierra snowpack
and more intense rainstorms, separated by dry spells of unknown duration. Without new water storage, conservation will reach its
obvious limits and the demands on that “conserved” water will only harden to a point where unnecessary hardships will result.¶ The
Gold Rush era gave California its golden reputation, but it is our unique setting between the Sierra Nevada range and the Pacific
Ocean that has allowed our state to be a world leader in meeting the diverse dietary needs of our communities, state, nation and a
good part of the world. Without a dependable supply of water, this unique place that has been the envy of the world will be
changed forever.¶ I am hopeful that our current elected leaders will learn from the mistakes of the past and take seriously their
charge to provide for all Californians, today and in the future.
UQ – Water Shortages Now
States across the US suffer from water shortages
AP 7
http://www.nbcnews.com/id/21494919/ns/us_news-environment/t/crisisfeared-us-water-supplies-dry/#.U6rYCfldXZ1
An epic drought
in Georgia threatens the water supply for millions. Florida doesn’t have nearly
enough water for its expected population boom. The Great Lakes are shrinking. Upstate New
York’s reservoirs have dropped to record lows. And in the West, the Sierra Nevada snowpack is melting faster each year.¶
Across America, the picture is critically clear — the nation’s freshwater supplies can no longer
quench its thirst.¶ The government projects that at least 36 states will face water shortages within five years
because of a combination of rising temperatures, drought, population growth, urban sprawl,
waste and excess.¶ “Is it a crisis? If we don’t do some decent water planning, it could be,” said Jack Hoffbuhr, executive
director of the Denver-based American Water Works Association.¶ Water managers will need to take bold steps to keep taps
flowing, including conservation, recycling, desalination and stricter controls on development.¶ “We’ve
hit a remarkable
moment,” said Barry Nelson, a senior policy analyst with the Natural Resources Defense
Council. “The last century was the century of water engineering. The next century is going to
have to be the century of water efficiency.Ӧ The price tag for ensuring a reliable water supply could be staggering.
Experts estimate that just upgrading pipes to handle new supplies could cost the nation $300
billion over 30 years.¶ Advertise¶ “Unfortunately, there’s just not going to be any more cheap water,” said Randy Brown,
Pompano Beach’s utilities director.¶ It’s not just America’s problem — it’s global.¶ Australia is in the midst of a 30year dry spell, and population growth in urban centers of sub-Saharan Africa is straining resources.
Asia has 60 percent of the world’s population but only about 30 percent of its fresh water.¶ The
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a United Nations network of scientists, said this year that by 2050 up to 2 billion people
worldwide could be facing major water shortages.¶ The U.S. used more than 148 trillion gallons of water in 2000, the latest figures
available from the U.S. Geological Survey. That includes residential, commercial, agriculture, manufacturing and every other use —
almost 500,000 gallons per person.¶ Coastal
states like Florida and California face a water crisis not only
from increased demand, but also from rising temperatures that are causing glaciers to melt and sea levels to
rise. Higher temperatures mean more water lost to evaporation. And rising seas could push saltwater into underground sources of
freshwater.¶ Florida represents perhaps the nation’s greatest water irony. A hundred years ago, the state’s biggest problem was it
had too much water. But decades of dikes, dams and water diversions have turned swamps into cities.¶ Wasted water ¶ Little land is
left to store water during wet seasons, and so much of the landscape has been paved over that water can no longer penetrate the
ground in some places to recharge aquifers. As a result, the state is forced to flush millions of gallons of excess into the ocean to
prevent flooding.¶ Also, the state dumps hundreds of billions of gallons a year of treated wastewater into the Atlantic through pipes
— water that could otherwise be used for irrigation.¶ Florida’s environmental chief, Michael Sole, is seeking legislative action to get
municipalities to reuse the wastewater.¶ “As
these communities grow, instead of developing new water
with new treatment systems, why not better manage the commodity they already have and
produce an environmental benefit at the same time?” Sole said.¶ Image: Vanishing water ¶ Official: Florida not
doing enough ¶ Florida leads the nation in water reuse by reclaiming some 240 billion gallons annually, but it is not nearly enough,
Sole said.¶ Advertise¶ Floridians use about 2.4 trillion gallons of freshwater a year, as well as an uncounted amount of treated and
desalinated saltwater for consumption and for tasks such as cooling power plants.¶ The state projects that by 2025, the population
will have increased 34 percent from about 18 million to more than 24 million people, pushing annual demand for freshwater to
nearly 3.3 trillion gallons.¶ More than half of the state’s expected population boom is projected in a three-county area that includes
Miami, Fort Lauderdale and Palm Beach, where water use is already about 1.5 trillion gallons a year.¶ “We just passed a crossroads.
The chief water sources are basically gone,” said John Mulliken, director of water supply for the South Florida
Water Management District. “We really are at a critical moment in Florida history.”
UQ – Ag Sector on Brink
Agriculture industry on the brink due to mass droughts¶
USDA 6/23¶
(United States Department of Agriculture, 6/23/14, “California Drought 2014: Farm and Food
Impacts” http://ers.usda.gov/topics/in-the-news/california-drought-2014-farm-and-foodimpacts.aspx#.U6twLY1dU4r - ES -)
The ongoing drought in California—with the driest year on record for the State following
several prior years of drought—is likely to have a major impact on the State’s agricultural
production in 2014. Despite a relatively recent series of major storms, long-term moisture deficits across most of the State remain at near-record levels. Because
California is a major producer in the fruit, vegetable, tree nut, and dairy sectors, the drought
has potential implications for U.S. supplies and prices of affected products in 2014 and beyond.¶
¶
UQ – SQ Desal Fails
Current desalination technology is too expensive for developing countries
Agboola, Al-Mutaz, Orfi, and Egelioglu, 2/8/14
[O. Phillips Agboola, I. S. Al-Mutaz, and Jamel Orfi, College of Engineering, King Saud University, Saudi
Arabia, and Fuat Egelioglu, Mechanical Engineering Department, Eastern Mediterranean University,
Turkey http://www.hindawi.com/journals/ame/2014/925976/]
In many parts of the developed countries, most especially in millennium cities, the supply of potable water to homes is often taken
for granted by the people. The assumption that potable water exists in abundance is luxury to those residing in the desert regions of
the world. Water as we know it today does not exist as potable in most sources due to contamination (because of industrial and
household waste contaminations), heavy metals contents (in some cases), and salinity. In order to use water for human
consumption (drinking and/or cooking), it must be treated to get rid of organisms capable of causing all sorts of diseases and
minerals and organic substances that could cause harm. Potable water should be colourless (free from colour) and be free from
odour, apparent turbidity, and taste. Many
developing (and underdeveloped) countries are struggling to make
potable water available to their citizens, due to nonavailability of adequate water sources
and/or poor management of the available water sources. In most parts of the world, the demand for
water outweighs its supply, a situation calling for innovative technologies for new water
sources. Cyprus is located on the Mediterranean basin, with very limited potable water
sources. The country is surrounded by the Mediterranean Sea; the seawater source is not readily consumable. The northern part
of Cyprus is under economic embargo, a situation that exponentially worsens the fresh water
availability on that part of the island. The government does not supply potable water to
households due to the high cost of treating the high salinity water sources. Seawater intrusion
because of over extraction of underground water and consistent drought has led to the high
salinity of the water sources [1]. The water supply to houses through different municipalities contains between 1000 and
2500 ppm of salt.
Link – Water Shortages Collapse Econ
Global water shortages will cause economic collapse – must act now
Snyder 2014
(Michael Snyder, attorney/writer, 6/19/14, “Growing Global Water Crisis,”
http://www.wallstreetsectorselector.com/investment-articles/analyst-desk/2014/06/growing-globalwater-crisis/-ES-)
War, famine, mass extinctions and devastating plagues - all of these are coming unless
some kind of miraculous solution is found to the world's rapidly growing water crisis. By the
year 2030, the global demand for water will exceed the global supply of water by an
astounding 40 percent according to one very disturbing US. Government report. As you read
this article, lakes, rivers, streams and aquifers are steadily drying up all over the planet. The lack of global
water could potentially be enough to bring about a worldwide economic collapse all by
itself if nothing is done because no society can function without water. Just try to live a single
day without using any water some time. You will quickly realize how difficult it is. Fresh water is the single
most important natural resource on the planet, and we are very rapidly running out of it.
Water shortages hurt economy – Desalination is Key
Hilal, 14
[Nidal, Director of Centre for Water Advanced Technologies and Environmental Research (CWATER) at
Swansea University in the United Kingdom. May 27, 2014, “The Water Challange - Why Desalination
Technology Deserves your Vote”, http://www.envirotech-online.com/news/waterwastewater/9/nesta/the_water_challange__why_desalination_technology_deserves_your_vote/30225/#sthash.vr5fJf6m.JtGIhYKZ.dpuf]
Today, the supply of fresh water presents one of the most pressing challenges ever faced by the human race. It is a vital resource for
human life. Yet, population growth and enhanced living standards, together with the expansion of industrial and agricultural
activities, are creating unprecedented demands on clean water supplies all over the world. The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
and the United Nations (UN) have reported that 0.35 billion people in
25 different countries are currently suffering from water shortage, and this will grow to 4
billion people (two-thirds of the world population) in 52 countries by 2025. In addition, a staggering 2.6
billion people have no access to proper sanitation. . When you consider the facts from the World Health Organization (WHO) and
other agencies, the root cause of this mounting crisis becomes clear. The world's population tripled in the 20th century, and is
expected to increase by another 40-50 percent in the next 50 years. The unavoidable fact is that there is no more fresh water in the
world today than there was 1 million years ago, and water as a resource cannot be replaced in the way that alternative fuel sources
can replace petroleum. Areas
affected by acute water shortage are often in the poorest, most
underdeveloped countries, which lack the necessary power and water-delivery
infrastructures. The lack of clean water also creates considerable health, energy and economic
challenges to the populations of these countries. Because of a growing population and climate change, water
shortages will eventually limit economic growth and food supplies. The provision of clean water therefore
represents one of the most pressing challenges of the 21st century. What are the sustainable solutions to this challenge? What are
the priorities? More and more reservoirs, wells, pipelines and river transfers are not the answer.
Yet, in arid countries around the world, where conventional water resources are scarce, impaired-quality (non-conventional) water
sources are still available for exploitation, such as seawater, brackish water, wastewater (and various effluents) and storm water
runoff. In particular, desalination
of sea water has increasingly proved itself to be the most practical
- and in many cases the only possible - solution for many countries around the globe,
and particularly for the Arab World.
Link – Collapse Ag Sector
Water shortages will lead to agriculture collapse
Brown 2009
Lester, environmental analyst, founder of the Worldwatch Institute, and founder and president
of the Earth Policy Institute, “COULD FOOD SHORTAGES BRING DOWN CIVILIZATION?,” Scientific
American, May2009, Vol. 300 Issue 5, p50-57
For most of us, the idea that civilization itself could disintegrate probably seems preposterous. Who would
not find it hard to think seriously about such a complete departure from what we expect of ordinary life? What evidence could make
us heed a warning so dire--and how would we go about responding to it? We
are so inured to a long list of highly
unlikely catastrophes that we are virtually programmed to dismiss them all with a wave of the
hand: Sure, our civilization might devolve into chaos--and Earth might collide with an asteroid, too!¶ For many years I have
studied global agricultural, population, environmental and economic trends and their
interactions. The combined effects of those trends and the political tensions they generate
point to the breakdown of governments and societies. Yet I, too, have resisted the idea that food
shortages could bring down not only individual governments but also our global civilization.¶ I can no longer
ignore that risk. Our continuing failure to deal with the environmental declines that are undermining the world food economy--
most important, falling water tables, eroding soils and rising temperatures--forces me to conclude that
such a collapse is possible.
Salinated water destroys crops and has major economic and agriculture
disadvantages—solar desal solves
Balch 14[Oliver Balch is a journalist for The Guardian and an author,Balch, Oliver.
"Is Solar-powered Desalination Answer to Water Independence for California?" 24
June 2014, http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/solar-power-californiawater]
Thousands of acres on the west side of California's San Joaquin Valley lie
fallow. In official speak, the former agricultural land has been "retired". Water
supplies have always been a problem for this drought-prone region. Yet what's
pushed the area over the brink is salinity.¶ The problem is in large part caused
by farm irrigation, which picks up the salt that naturally occurs in the rocks
and soils of the Central Valley and transfers it through drainage. Compounding
the problem is the tidally influenced water that is pumped into the area from the
Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. A study by the University of California estimates
that, left to continue, the Central Valley could be facing reparation costs of up
to $1.5bn by 2030 and the loss of up to 64,000 jobs as agricultural production
slides.¶ A California-based startup thinks it might have the answer. WaterFX's
solution comes in the unlikely shape of a vast bank of parabolic mirrors and an
advanced "multi-effect" evaporating unit. The Aqua4 system offers a renewable
method of desalinating briny water, which, if its developers prove right, could put
California "on a path to water independence".¶ How does it work? Unlike
conventional desalination, which uses a high-pressure reverse osmosis system
that forces salt and other solids through a membrane, WaterFX cleans water
through use of a 400-kilowatt solar "trough" – hence the mirrors. This
concentrated solar still collects the sun's energy, which heats a pipe containing
natural oil, providing heat for the subsequent distillation process.
Link – Food Price Spikes
Water shortages leads to food shortages and price spikes
Brown 2009
[Lester, environmental analyst, founder of the Worldwatch Institute, and founder and president
of the Earth Policy Institute, “COULD FOOD SHORTAGES BRING DOWN CIVILIZATION?,” Scientific
American, May2009, Vol. 300 Issue 5, p50-57]
What about supply? The three environmental trends I mentioned earlier--the shortage of freshwater, the loss of topsoil
and the rising temperatures (and other effects) of global warming--are making it increasingly hard to expand the
world's grain supply fast enough to keep up with demand. Of all those trends, however, the spread of
water shortages poses the most immediate threat. The biggest challenge here is irrigation, which consumes 70
percent of the world's freshwater. Millions of irrigation wells in many countries are now pumping water out of underground sources
faster than rainfall can recharge them. The result is
falling water tables in countries populated by half the
world's people, including the three big grain producers--China, India and the U.S.¶ Usually aquifers are replenishable, but
some of the most important ones are not: the "fossil" aquifers, so called because they store ancient water and are not recharged by
precipitation. For these--including the vast Ogallala Aquifer that underlies the U.S. Great Plains, the Saudi aquifer and the deep
aquifer under the North China Plain--depletion would spell the end of pumping. In arid regions such a loss could also bring an end to
agriculture altogether.¶ In China the water table under the North China Plain, an area that produces more than half of the country's
wheat and a third of its corn, is falling fast. Overpumping has used up most of the water in a shallow aquifer there, forcing well
drillers to turn to the region's deep aquifer, which is not replenishable. A report by the World Bank foresees "catastrophic
consequences for future generations" unless water use and supply can quickly be brought back into balance.¶ As water tables have
fallen and irrigation wells have gone dry, China's wheat crop, the world's largest, has declined by 8 percent since it peaked at 123
million tons in 1997. In that same period China's rice production dropped 4 percent. The world's most populous nation may soon be
importing massive quantities of grain.¶ But water shortages are even more worrying in India. There the margin between food
consumption and survival is more precarious. Millions of irrigation wells have dropped water tables in almost every state. As Fred
Pearce reported in New Scientist:¶ Half of India's traditional hand-dug wells and millions of shallower tube wells have already dried
up, bringing a spate of suicides among those who rely on them. Electricity blackouts are reaching epidemic proportions in states
where half of the electricity is used to pump water from depths of up to a kilometer [3,300feet].¶ A World Bank study reports that
15 percent of India's food supply is produced by mining groundwater. Stated otherwise, 175 million Indians consume grain produced
with water from irrigation wells that will soon be exhausted. The
continued shrinking of water supplies could
lead to unmanageable food shortages and social conflict.
I/L – Ag Sector k2 Econ
Agricultural is key to the US economy
Persaud 13
(Suresh Persaud, agricultural economist with the US Department of Agriculture, June 17 2013
http://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/agricultural-trade-multipliers/effects-of-trade-on-the-useconomy.aspx#.Ucns8js3u5I -ES-)
U.S. agricultural exports generated employment, income, and purchasing power in
both the farm and nonfarm sectors. ERS estimates that each dollar of agricultural
exports stimulated another $1.29 in business activity in 2011. The $136.4 billion of agricultural
exports in 2011 produced an additional $176 billion in economic activity for a total economic output of $312.3 billion.
Every $1 billion of U.S. agricultural exports in 2011 required 6,800 American jobs
throughout the economy. Calendar year 2011 agricultural exports required 923,000 full-time civilian jobs,
which included 637,000 jobs in the nonfarm sector. The agricultural export surplus helped to offset some of the
nonagricultural trade deficit.
Solvency – Water Shortages
Plan K2 stopping water shortages in costal cities
World Bank 2012
(WB, 1/26/12, “Renewable Energy Desalination: An Emerging Solution to Close MENA's Water
Gap” http://water.worldbank.org/node/84110 -ES-)
In arid, coastal cities, water demand is often met through large-scale desalination systems
powered by fossil fuels. While groundwater and surface water resources are dwindling due to
population growth and climate change, more desalination plants will be required to meet the
water demand gap. With rising fuel prices, however, many countries will need to look to
renewable energy sources, like solar and wind, as an alternative source for water provision. Desalination can,
therefore, present an opportunity for developing countries to meet their water supply needs while at
the same time developing their renewable energy potential.
Solvency – Economic Development
Desalination is vital for economic development
Gleick and Wolff 2006
(Dr. Peter H. Gleick is co-founder and President ¶ of the Pacific Institute for Studies in
Development, Gary Wolff, P.E., Ph.D., is Principal Economist and¶ Engineer, June 2006,
“DESALINATION, WITH A GRAIN OF SALT, http://pacinst.org/wpcontent/uploads/sites/21/2013/02/desalination_report3.pdf-ES-)
Desalination facilities in many arid and watershed areas of the world are vital for economic
development. In particular, desalination is an important water source in parts of the arid Middle East, Persian Gulf,
North Africa, Caribbean islands, and other locations where the natural availability of fresh water is
insufficient to meet demand and where traditional water-supply options or transfers from
elsewhere are implausible or uneconomical. Increasingly, other regions are exploring the use of desalination as a
potential mainstream source of reliable, high-quality water as the prices slowly drop toward the cost of more traditional
alternatives..
Solvency – Jobs
Desalination plants create thousands of jobs
Whipple 2012
(Tabitha Whipple is the Administrative Manager at Poseidon Water and an environment and
renewables expert. November 20, 2012. “S.D. County Water Authority Board Approves
Agreement to Purchase Carlsbad Desalination” http://carlsbaddesal.com/s-d-county-waterauthority-board-approves-agreement-ES-)
The San Diego County Water Authority Board of Directors has approved the purchase of the water produced by the proposed
Carlsbad Desalination Project, a seawater desalination plant that will produce enough water to meet about 7 percent of
the region's water needs in 2020, reducing San Diego's dependence on imported water and significantly improving water reliability
in the region.¶ The agreement clears the way for the sale of bonds to finance the fully permitted project, which includes the plant as
well as a 10-mile pipeline to deliver the treated water to customers. The bond financing is expected to proceed next month, and
construction will begin early next year on the facility, which is located next to the Encinas Power Station in Carlsbad, Calif. The plant
is expected to be in operation in 2016.¶ Under the 30-year agreement approved today, the CWA will purchase the plant's output
of approximately
50 million gallons per day of drinking water, which is enough to serve nearly
450,000 county residents.¶ "San Diego has reached a major milestone in its long-term plan to develop drought-proof, local
sources of water to sustain our economy and quality of life, and Poseidon is proud to be part of it through this partnership with the
County Water Authority and its 24 member agencies," said Carlos Riva, chief executive officer for Poseidon Resources. "The Carlsbad
Desalination Project has been more than a deade in the making, and we're grateful to the many supporters who helped shape the
project and move it forward so we can deliver this much-needed supply to San Diegans."¶ The project and the Water Purchase
Agreement enjoys broad support from elected leaders, including the region's entire Congressional and state Legislative delegation,
as well as mayors and councilmembers throughout the county. It also won the support of respected business and trade groups such
as the San Diego Regional Chamber of Commerce, Biocom, the San Diego County Taxpayers Association, the San Diego and Imperial
Counties Labor Council, the San Diego Building Trades & Construction Council and groups representing agricultural interests.¶
Construction of the
plant will create about 2,300 jobs in the region, with ongoing operations
supporting about 575 jobs. In addition to creating jobs, the project will help protect the
region's economy from the devastating impact of water shortages.¶ A¶
Solvency
Solvency – Drinkable Water
Solar energy combined with desalination has the potential to provide drinkable
water, regulated by solar pond that has expansive productivity
Goosen ,Mahmoudi, & Ghaffour 13
[Mattheus F. A., Hacene, Noreddine, Reseacher in Graduate Studies at Alfaisal University,
Faculty of Sciences at Hassiba Ben Bouali University, Water Desalination and Reuse Centre ,
King Abdullah University of Science and Technology in Saudi Arabia “Today's and Future
Challenges in Applications of Renewable Energy Technologies for Desalination” Critical
Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology 44:929–99]
The combination of renewable energy with desalination schemes holds immense
potential for improving drinkable water supplies in arid regions (Mahmoudi et al.,
2008; Mahmoudi et al., 2009a; Mahmoudi et al., 2009b; Mahmoudi et al., 2010b;
Papapetrou et al., 2005). Desalination by way of solar energy is a suitable alternative
to small-scale conventional methods to providing freshwater, especially for remote
and rural areas where small quantities of water for human consumption are needed
(Al-Hallaj et al., 1998). Attention has been directed toward improving the efficiencies
of the solar energy conversions, desalination technologies and their optimal
coupling to make them economically viable for small and medium-scale
applications. Solar energy can be used directly as thermal or it can be converted to
electrical energy to drive RO units. Electrical energy can be produced from solar
energy directly by PV conversion or via a solar thermal power plant. Solar stills,
which have been in use for several decades, come in a variety of options (Goosen et al., 2000;
Rodriquez et al., 1996; Fath, 1998). The simple solar still (Figure 10A) is a small production system yielding on average 2–5
L/day. It
can be used wherever freshwater demand is low and land is inexpensive.
Many modifications to improve the performance of the solar stills have been made
including incorporating a number of effects to recover the latent heat of
condensation (Figure 10B; Al-Hallaj et al., 1998). In an effort to improve productivity, Kalidasa Murugavel and Srithar
(2011) did a performance study on basin type double slope solar still with different wick materials and minimum mass of
water. It was found that the theoretical production rate using a proposed model were close to the experimental.
Nevertheless we can argue that simple solar still systems are not economically viable for large-scale applications.
Furthermore, while a system may be technically very efficient it may not be economic (i.e., the cost of water production
may be too high; Kalidasa Murugavel and Srithar, 2011). Therefore, both
efficiency and economics
need to be considered when choosing a desalination system. In a related study, an
extensive review of solar stills was carried out Velmurugan and Srithar (2011). They
reported for example on how a mini solar pond was integrated with single basin
solar still. The mini solar pond supplied hot water to the solar still thus augmenting
the evaporation rate of the saline water in the still and increasing its productivity by
28%. However, the paper failed to recommend a specific type of solar still. The study may be useful for those researchers
seeking to improve existing stills. It has been reported that, compared with other solar desalination technologies, solar
ponds, even though they are limited to small-scale applications, provide the most convenient and least expensive option for
heat storage for daily and seasonal cycles (Kalogirou, 2005).
Solvency – Empirics
MENA countries prove that the use of renewable energy sources for
desalination are sustainable, energy conservative, and economically
feasible
The World Bank 12
[M E N A D E V E L O P M E N T R E P O R T: Renewable Energy Desalination: An Emerging
Solution to Close the Water Gap in the Middle East and North Africa
http://www.worldbank.org/]
The coupling of renewable energy sources with desalination has the potential to provide a
sustainable source of potable water. The technical and economic potential of Renewable
Energy resources for power generation differs widely among MENA countries. The annual
potential of wind power, biomass, geothermal, and hydropower combined totals approximately 830
trillion watt-hours. Although these resources are concentrated more or less locally and are not
available everywhere, they can be distributed through the electricity grid to meet growing
electricity demand. By far, the biggest resource in MENA is solar irradiance, which is available
everywhere in the region. MENA’s solar energy has a potential 1,000 times larger than its
other renewable sources combined and is several orders of magnitude larger than the
current total world electricity demand. MENA’s potential energy from solar radiation per
square kilometer per year is equivalent to the amount of energy generated from 1–2 million
barrels of oil. This copious resource can be used both in distributed photovoltaic (PV)
systems and in large central solar thermal power stations. While PV can economically
generate only electricity, solar energy captured and redirected by mirrors to heat fluids––
called concentrating solar power (CSP)––can generate both heat and electricity. While electricity
cannot be stored as electrical energy, heat can. Concentrating solar power was selected for
analysis in this volume for two reasons: (1) it has the potential to store heat so it can provide
baseload for desalination; and (2) it has significant potential for technological improvement
and significant cost reduction. With sufficient heat storage capacity, concentrating solar
power potentially can provide baseload power 24 hours a day. The efficiency of today’s
solar collectors ranges from 8–16 percent, but by 2050, technical improvements are
expected to increase efficiency to the 15–25 percent range. Currently, the solar energy
collector field comprises more than half of the investment cost. Thus, improvements in
collection efficiency indicate significant potential for cost reduction. However, despite its
significant potential for development, concentrating solar power today is not economically
competitive compared to conventional energy sources and most Renewable Energy
technologies such as wind and PV (table O.3). To mature and become cost effective,
concentrating solar power will continue to need strategic support. Such strategic support
could be a combination of energy policy reforms to eliminate barriers, such as eliminating
fossil fuel subsidies, creating an enabling environment for long-term power-purchase
agreements and feeding tariffs, and supporting initial investments and R&D related to
concentrating solar power. Based on assumptions adopted by this volume to develop
concentrating solar power (figure O.3), the costs of fresh water produced by concentrating
solar power thermal and RO membrane desalination plants vary considerably in the
Mediterranean Sea, Gulf, and Red Sea regions due primarily to differing seawater salinity.
CSP-RO provides the lowest cost water in the Mediterranean and Red Sea regions, ranging from US$1.52–1.74 per m3 (table
O.4). CSP-RO costs also vary depending on coastal or inland locations. Inland higher solar radiation may reduce costs by as
much as US$0.15 per m3. Figure O.3 shows the applied strategy for a fictitious case country in MENA. Annualized costs of
fossil-fuel power generation are expected to increase in the future. Thus, the current cost of peaking power is projected to
rise from its present US$0.21 per kWh to more than US$0.35 per kWh by 2050. Medium- and baseload power will be less
expensive but will follow a similar trend. In contrast, present concentrating solar power costs of
approximately 2020, concentrating solar power will start to be competitive with medium-load
power plants (B2). If this process is continued by filling up the medium-load segment with
CSP and substituting more and more fuel in this sector, the break-even with the average
electricity cost will be achieved before 2030 (point B). By 2040 concentrating solar power will break even in
the baseload segment (B3).
Solvency – Environment
Solar desalination is less harmful to the environment than traditional
methods of desalination
Ayoub & Malaeb 12
[ G.M. & L., Professor of Civil Environmental Engineering at American University in Beirut,
Director at the Water Desalination and Reuse Center at King Ahdullah University for Science
and Technology, Saudia Arabia, “Developments in Solar Still Desalination Systems: A Critical
Review, Critical Reviews in Environmental Science and Technology, 42:2078-2112 2012
Finally, the solar still remains to be the basic technique for the inexpensive
production of water and is a low-tech method that can be easily adopted by local
rural people. With the growing global oil crisis, the need for alternatives to
conventional desalination plants based on fossil fuels grows. The use of solar stills
has so far been restricted to small-scale systems due to their relatively low thermal
efficiency and production rate compared with the large areas required. They tend to
be competitive, however, with other renewable-desalination technologies in smallscale production due to their relatively low cost and simplicity. Enhancing solar stills
in order to eradicate their limitations can therefore provide a means to attain selfreliance and ensure a regular water supply in areas where power is scarce, demand is
low, and salty water is the only available source. The potential for solar stills strongly
exists in developing areas of the world, particularly in locations where people live
near sources of brackish water or seawater. These areas often lack the expertise needed to
operate small-scale systems based on membrane technologies. The high salinity and low quality
of the feed water is not a concern in solar stills as it is in membrane technology. Membrane systems such as
those based on reverse osmosis are highly sensitive to low-quality feed, seasonal
variations, and sudden changes in pH, temperature, and constituent concentrations.
These conditions entail increased areas and costs to provide the pretreatment
necessary for membranes. Frequent membrane replacement and the need for proper
cleaning to prevent fouling is another issue. The brine produced by solar stills may
also be of less environmental impact than that produced by other desalination
technologies since it is free from the chemicals, antiscalants, and cleaning waste
streams that constitute a necessary part in operating other desalination systems.
Solvency – Sustainability
Sustainable desalination lies in solar plants.
Paulson, ’13 (RWIL Water is an innovative water-centered organization/engineering group
which focuses on providing alternate clean water options. Linda Dailey Paulson on RWL
Water.com: “Saudi Arabia Seeks Sustainable Desalination Options”; April 26, 2013
http://www.rwlwater.com/saudi-arabia-seeks-sustainable-desalination/)
The perennially dry and water-stressed Kingdom of Saudi Arabia depends on desalination to supplement its
water needs, but as that dependence increases, so too does the government’s need for more
energy-efficient approaches to producing water. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is reportedly the world’s largest
producer of desalinated water. There are no permanent bodies of water in the Kingdom, which also gets very little rainfall annually.
It relies heavily on desalination to supplement its water supplies. The government has budgeted $6.4 billion for water and sanitation
projects in 2013 and several water projects are scheduled to come on line in the next year. The Saline Water Conversion Corp., a
Saudi government corporation desalinating seawater for distribution throughout the Kingdom and its second largest electric power
producer, announced plans in March 2013 to increase its water production by 2014 to 7 million cubic meters/day — an increase of
40%. The increased production will be supplied, in part, by new solar-powered desalination plants in Khafji, Haqel, Dhuba, and
Farasan. A conventionally fueled desalination plant in Rabigh now under construction is expected to be the world’s largest. When it
comes online in 2018, this facility will reportedly produce 600,000 cubic meters of desalinated water per day. The growing demand
for desalination is also fueling energy demand, notes Bloomberg. The cost of producing a barrel of water is between 40 to 90
cents/barrel, according to the Saudi Gazette, and fluctuates based on fuel prices. The publication estimates: To produce water, the
Kingdom uses approximately 1.5 million barrels of oil a day across its 30 or so desalination plants to meet the demand for domestic
and industrial water.
Little of this water — if any is used for agriculture. The water for agriculture —
some 85 to 90 percent of the total water use in the Kingdom — comes from non-replaceable
resources, underground aquifers that are drying out rapidly. For every 100 liters per annum withdrawn, only
one liter or less finds itself back into the aquifer. Because agriculture is one of the largest consumers of water in the Kingdom, the
Gazette adds that the government is abandoning its plans for food security — eventually eliminating government agricultural
Desalination reportedly has a significant
carbon footprint. Tafline Laylin, writing on Green Prophet, says 90% of the Kingdom’s water supply is
created by desalination, “which leaves the Emirate no choice but to find new and innovative
solutions to water scarcity that don’t sop up the country’s own energy.” There is increased
interest throughout the Gulf states to make desalination more sustainable through using
renewable energy sources in the production, such as solar power. Saudi Arabia gets between 200 and 300
subsidies — and will rely wholly on imported food sources by 2016.
hours of sunshine every month.
A2
A2 Wastewater Bad
Wastewater Can Be Reused
Daniel, Alice 5.9.14 (KQED Science brings you award-winning science and environment
coverage from the Bay Area and beyond by the flagship Northern California PBS and NPR
affiliate. “Drought Tech: How Solar Desalination Could Help Parched Farms”
http://www.kqed.org/science/2014/05/09/drought-tech-how-solar-desalination-could-helpparched-farms/)
Farmers on the western side of the San Joaquin Valley can count on two things:
sunshine and water that’s polluted and salty where minerals have built up in
the soil. Now a Northern California entrepreneur is using one to clean up the other in the Panoche Water and
Drainage District near the little town of Firebaugh, about 50 miles northwest of Fresno. It’s called a
“drainage district” because farms around here have to get rid of excess salty
irrigation water, explains ranch manager Wayne Western (yes, that’s his name). An elaborate
system of underground drains and pumps collects the runoff. The district then
recycles that water on 6,000 acres of more salt-tolerant crops.“These are pistachios
right here, they’re 13 years old,” he says, walking through an orchard that’s getting some of the reclaimed
water.“The district is doing this for its growers because if they didn’t, at some point you’d have to retain your own
runoff water,” says Western. “If you’ve got nowhere to go with it, after awhile, you’re not going to be growing
anything in that ground.” The residual water is laden with salts and other contaminants
such as selenium, which is toxic in high concentrations. The district reuses
this water not only on pistachios, he says, but also on another salt-tolerant crop, [and] Jose tall
wheatgrass. “Our whole goal here was to get rid of the wastewater,” says Dennis Falaschi, who runs the
district. “Not in our wildest dreams did we ever think we could have revenue generated from this wastewater.” The
revenue comes from selling the wheatgrass, which is used for cattle feed, and
the pistachios. As it turns out, cattle need a certain amount of selenium.“Over the course
of the last 15 years, we must have tried out 20-to-25 different treatment processes and you know, you end up
spending a lot of time and a lot of hours on something that just doesn’t work,” he says.But now there’s one idea
that’s starting to look a little brighter. Falaschi points to a row of curved mirrors that stretch out near a field of
wheatgrass.“The equipment that we’re looking at here — with the exception of the solar panels — is pretty much
shelf-item stuff,” he says. “I mean, you know, you’re looking at a boiler, and then you have a plumbing system that
actually runs through.”It’s an experimental solar desalination plant, funded by the district with a million-dollar state
grant. The project looks a bit like a spaceship on this vast expanse of land.“If we can treat this water, we’ve
managed our drainage problem, but we’ve also created supplemental water,” says Falaschi. “That’s why we’re
excited.”“It’s actually a lot like back when you were a kid and you would play with a magnifying glass on the
sidewalk to burn things,” explains Aaron Mandell, the founder of WaterFX, which designed the solar plant. “We
don’t actually burn things but it’s the same concept; you concentrate solar energy and you can generate very high
temperatures.”An absorption pump that Mandell and his team designed reduces by half the energy it takes to
evaporate water. The project also uses a reflective mirror-like film to focus the sun on long tubes containing
mineral oil. The heat from the oil is piped into evaporators to generate steam.“So the heat that we generate from
the sun basically separates water and salt,” he says. The process produces potable water which the company can
then sell, along with some of the minerals distilled out, like selenium and even boron. The project is timely with
California three years into a drought, but Mandell says, that wasn’t his motivation.“Even if the drought were to end
right now, we would still need desalination as a more reliable source of water going forward,” he says. “Because
the real problem is that the water supply in California and many of the Western states is actually no longer reliable.
WaterFX will soon build a much larger plant, this one funded by investors. It’s slated to treat about 2 million gallons
a day. Mandell says it will cost about $450 to produce an acre-foot of water. That’s more than farmers here pay for
surface water but about half the total operating costs of a conventional desalination plant that uses reverse
osmosis. Dennis Falaschi says his water district will provide the 75-acre site and probably be the main customer.
Farmers this year received no water from the federal Central Valley Project, so the onus, he says, is on Water FX.
“You showed us the baby steps you can perform. Now go out and do the big steps,” says Falaschi. “And if you
perform? That’s why the world goes around. I get water, you get money.”
A2 Brine
Solar desal avoids brine waste dumping—goes to other uses
Peters 14[Peters, Adele. "Can This Solar Desalination Startup Solve California Water Woes?"
Fast Co-Exist. N.p., 10 Feb. 2014. Web. 26 June 2014.
<http://www.fastcoexist.com/3026234/can-this-solar-desalination-startup-solve-californiawater-woes>.]
Since solar desalination can enable the use of local water, it can also help reduce one of the
state's biggest uses of energy--pumping water through the aqueduct system.¶ Besides saving
electricity, the technology has other advantages. Regular desalination, which uses high
pressure system, can only create a limited amount of freshwater; half of the original saltwater
ends up unusable, so salty that when it's dumped back in the ocean it can harm marine life.
WaterFX, on the other hand, claims its process has a 93% water recovery rate. The remaining
salt is so concentrated that it can actually be turned into something useful, like gypsum, a salt
used in making drywall, or epsom salts.
A2 Spending
Creating A Desalination Program Is The Most Beneficial
Food and Water Watch, 2009 (Food and Water Watch is a non-profit consumer
organization that works to ensure clean water and safe food.) “Desalination: An Ocean Of
Problems” http://documents.foodandwaterwatch.org/doc/Desal-Feb2009.pdf)
There is no clear coordinated federal desalination program. most federal
funding for desalination comes from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, although
Sandia National Laboratories, and the Department of Energy, the U.S. Army and the
office of Naval Research have carried out their own studies. The National Research
Council recommends that the federal government continue to spend $25
million a year, out of a total water research budget of $700 million, on
desalination research.
Typical Cost for Water is 1,200-2,000
Cooley 2010 (Heather, “Seawater Desalination, Panacea or Hype?”
http://www.actionbioscience.org/environment/cooley.html)
The cost of desalination has fallen in recent years, but it remains an expensive water-supply option. Typical
costs for water produced through desalination range from $1,200-2,000 per acre-foot—
substantially more expensive than most other water supply and demand management options. The assumption that desalination
costs will continue to fall may be false. Further cost reductions may be limited, and actually, future costs may increase.
Extra AFF Stuff
Advantage: Moral Obligation
US Water Unavailable to Minorities
Hauter, ’11
<http://www.alternet.org/newsandviews/article/513841/outrage%3A_people_in_the_us_still_l
ack_access_to_clean_water>
It’s that face of America that Catarina de Albuquerque witnessed at the end of her U.S. visit last week. De
Albuquerque, the UN independent expert on water and sanitation, visited the U.S. to
examine human rights obligations related to access to safe drinking water and sanitation.
What she found was not befitting of the world’s richest nation.¶ The human right to water
and sanitation entitles everyone to water and sanitation that is available, accessible,
affordable, acceptable and safe without discrimination. But de Albuquerque found that
people of color and Native Americans disproportionately suffer insufficient access to clean
water and sanitation services. While less than one percent of non-native American households
have no access to safe water and/or wastewater disposal, 13 percent of Native Americans
lack access. And for every one percent increase in one Boston ward’s percentage of people
of color, the number of threatened cut offs increases by 4 percent, according to a study on
the racial impact of water pricing and shut-off policies by the Boston Water and Sewer Commission, cited
by de Albuquerque.¶ 60 Minutes and de Albuquerque have both turned an uncomfortable eye on the state of America’s
poor. But when it comes to clean water and sanitation, a human right as recognized by the UN General Assembly last
summer, we
are unlikely to make strides when it comes to meeting the needs of the poorest
Americans unless we commit more resources to do so. But Obama’s 2012 budget cuts over
half a billion in federal funding for wastewater infrastructure, and nearly $400 million for
drinking water infrastructure. These budget cuts will make it harder for municipalities to provide safe drinking
water and sanitation to average U.S. households, but the poorest Americans will be even more at risk of
losing access to these basic human rights.¶
Desalination allows for water to be distributed equally—it doesn’t fit the
traditional framework
Feldman 13(Feldman, David. "Water." Google Books. N.p., 26 Apr. 2013. Web. 24 June
2014.)(David Feldman had a PhD in political science and is the chair of the Department of
Planning at UC Irvine)
Traditionally, environmental justice advocates have been concerned with issues such as
hazardous and toxic waste storage, disposal, and incineration and their impacts on racial
minorities, the poor, and women - groups upon whom the long-term intergenerational health hazards associated
with these nuisances tend to fall. Environmental justice advocates also argue that access to society’s
most treasured environmental amenities similarly tends to be inequitably distributed, with
the¶ urban poor, racial, and ethnic minorities sharing in the fewest¶ benefits. In most cases,
traditional environmental justice conflicts tend to breed high-intensity conflict and confrontation.¶ Worldwide, as we have
seen, this traditional
environmental¶ justice paradigm remains very important for water,
particularly in places such as the Central Valley where low income¶ communities of color
often lack clean water or access to¶ improvements to address toxic contamination, the
desire for¶ inclusive participation in decisions regardless of income or¶ race, and activities
that subject indigenous peoples to cultural¶ annihilation (e.g., dam-building and flooding ancestral
lands,¶ as we saw in the cases of Three Gorges in China).¶ By contrast, water conservation, IBR pricing, re-use,
and¶ desalination do not easily fit into this traditional frame work for two reasons. First,
the perceived benefits and risks¶ from these innovations are socio-economically crosscutting.¶ While IBR and metering mostly affect lower-income communities, recycled water and desalination are
perceived¶ — fairly or not — as negatively impacting middle-class and often¶ majority-comprised communities as well as
under-represented¶ populations.
Second, impacts from all these innovations are¶ perceived as longterm and chronic, rather than short-term¶ and acute (e.g., community stigma, diversion of ‘hard earned¶
tax dollars’ to special interests). Thus, they tend not to produce the types of political confrontations and demonstrations
associated with hazardous waste, contaminated water supplies,¶ dam-building, or regional diversion. When sudden, severe
pro- tests over water management arise, as we saw with the issue¶ of privatization in chapter 4, it generally occurs in a
specific¶ locality where the catalyst is a discrete institution that imposes¶ unjust and unpopular decisions (table 5.2).¶
Traditional Framework of Commoditization of Water Leads to Water Being NonPublic Resource
Paul, ’13. (Paul, Tara E. Plugging the Democracy Drain in the Struggle for Universal Access to
Safe Drinking Water. Diss. Indiana U Maurer School of Law, 2013.. Project MUSE, 2013. Web. 24
June 2014.
<http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/indiana_journal_of_global_legal_studies/v020/20.1.paul.html>.)
¶
Commoditization of a resource occurs through "practice or policy that promotes or treats
a good or service as an article of commerce to be bought, sold, or traded through market
transactions."37 Generally, for a good to be amenable to commoditization it must be
excludable, such that access is granted based on ability to pay, and it must be rival, such
that consumption by one individual effectively denies consumption by another.38 These
characteristics make it possible to set competitive prices and allow the good to be influenced by the market. By
contrast, something that is non-excludable and non-rival is resistant to commoditization
and is considered a public good.39¶ Water does not fit particularly well into either category.40 It is difficult to
describe it as excludable because its value is difficult to ascertain. Water is necessary for human survival,
but it has many other uses also connected to human prosperity including religious
practices, recreational enjoyment, agriculture, and environmental conservation [End Page
475] interests.41 Each of these important uses competes simultaneously for water
consumption. On the other hand, water can be described as rival because it is a limited resource and one
individual's consumption necessarily impacts the quantity available for others.42 Regardless of
these difficulties, the foundation for the treatment of water as a commodity, particularly in urban areas,
lies in its economic value created through the cost of providing it.43¶ The provision of clean water
requires purification, construction and maintenance of an infrastructure for transportation, and delivery for individual
consumption.44 Each
step in the process adds a cost to the final product, and whether
subsidized or charged the full price, a key component to commoditization is that the
primary value is the cost of providing it.45 Once water is valued as a commodity, it loses
its properties as a public good and is transformed into "a scarce monetized entity" subject
to the same market forces as oil or gold.46 Cost recovery, efficiency in allocation and
consumption, and profits become the primary objectives in water management.47¶ There are
two common components of the commoditization of water that help reach these objectives.48 First, full-cost pricing
to customers is used to recover the expense of providing water, but it is also an incentive
for customers to be cautious in their consumption.49 Thus, individuals are reluctant to use
more water than necessary, and water can be efficiently allocated among other competing interests.50 Second,
commoditization encourages participation from the private sector, ultimately facilitating privatization through the transfer
of state assets to private hands and the formation of contractual relationships for the construction, management, and
operation of water infrastructure.51 Because private companies are believed to be accountable to customers [End Page
476] rather than politics, proponents argue that the private sector is the more efficient manager of water.52¶ Despite the
commoditization of water has also been deeply criticized. Although
privatization typically leads to increased access to water, it also almost always leads to significant
increases in water prices that disproportionately affect the poor.53 Additionally, critics worry that
efficiency arguments, the
governments too frequently decide to privatize "without proper regard to the prevailing political, social, and economic
conditions.
Empirics Prove Privatization Fails: Social Unrest- Government Must Intervene
Townsend, ’11 (Townsend, John Converse. “Water Privatization: Villainy or Necessity?”, Web.
11/01/2011, Townsend is a correspondent on solutions to social problems to Triple Pundit,
http://www.triplepundit.com/2011/11/water-privatization-villiany-necessity/)
Bolivia—the real-life version—serves as a prime example. In 1999, the Bolivian government privatized the
water system of its third-largest city, Cochabamba, under pressure from the World Bank, which
declared it would not renew a $25 million economic assistance loan unless major structural
adjustments were made to the country’s water services.¶ The government conceded the city’s water
supply to a multinational consortium, Aguas del Tunari, which hiked rates almost
immediately. Some Cochabamba residents saw increases as high as 100 percent, as Aguas
del Tunari looked to finance a new dam project and pay the debt accumulated by SEMAPA, the
state agency that had been managing the city’s water works.¶ Things got heated, and the outrage ultimately boiled
over into protests that shut down the city. It wasn’t until after both military intervention
and the declaration of martial law failed to restore order that the Bolivian government
cancelled the private contract. Unfortunately, that wasn’t the end of citizen revolts about water privatization.¶
“The people of Bolivia did not choose to privatize their public water systems,” Jim Schulz,
executive director of The Democracy Center in Cochabamba, in The Nation. “That choice was
forced on them, as it has been in many poor nations around the world, when the World Bank made
privatization an explicit condition of aid in the mid-1990s. Poor countries such as Bolivia, which rely
heavily on foreign assistance for survival, are not in much of a position to say no to such pressures.¶ “The promise of
private investment has turned out to rely on market-rate pricing that the poor cannot
afford.”¶ Of course, the sensitivity around water privatization isn’t unique to Bolivia. Protests, at
times violent, have occurred around the world, from South Africa to the Philippines. As expected,
sudden shifts in the cost of services disproportionately affect those at the bottom of the
pyramid.¶ And while increasing prices for services like electricity aren’t necessarily causes for rebellion, getting priced
out of water has far graver consequences; it’s a situation that will become more familiar as
water becomes valued as an economic good instead of a social one.¶ “Water has been a
public resource under public domain for more than 2,000 years,” said James Olson, an attorney who
specializes in water rights. “Ceding it to private entities feels both morally wrong and
dangerous.¶ “Markets don’t care about the environment and they don’t care about human
rights. They care about profit.Ӧ Olson is right; privatizing water is a scary thought. Cutting off the water
supply to those not quite rich enough to afford it seems inhumane, especially if you accept that
water services—private or public—must be able to meet the needs of all citizens, including those
that are underprivileged and underserved.
Water is Key to Basic Human Rights- Cannot be fulfilled without
Scanlon, Cassar, and Nemes ’07 http://www.unwater.org/downloads/EPLP051.pdf
Water is essential to ensuring the continuance of life, and is intrinsically linked to other
fundamental human rights: water is necessary to produce food (right to adequate food), to ensure
environmental hygiene (right to health), for securing livelihoods (right to gain a living by work), to enjoy
certain cultural practices (right to take part in cultural life), etc. The following demonstrates that numerous
fundamental human rights can not be fully realized without water.¶ Right to life: explicitly
enshrined in our understanding of human rights since 1948 and the promulgation of the Universal Declaration of Human
Rights. Needless to say that without water, no life can be sustained.¶ Right to food: although not explicitly mentioned, the
right to water is very strongly implied, since it is vital in preserving the right to food. Water is essential for farming: almost 70%
of all available freshwater is used for agriculture, and it is estimated that more than one third of global food production is
based on irrigation.¶ Right to self-determination: rooted in both Human Rights Covenants, this right also includes the
right of all people to manage their own resources and is thus connected to a right to water.¶ Right to adequate standard of
living: cannot be realized without a right to water either. The UN Committee on Economic, Social and Cultural Rights
recognised that such a right “clearly falls within the category of guarantees essential for securing an adequate standard of
living, particularly since it is one of the most fundamental condition for survival".¶ Right to housing: water is also a
fundamental precondition of this right. As the Committee on Economic. Social and Cultural Rights stated “the right to adequate
housing should have sustainable access to natural and common resources, safe drinking water, sanitation and washing
facilities. . .Ӧ Right to education: water also plays a crucial role in the implementation of such a right. The lack of proper
supply of water forces children to walk long distances, often several times a day - thus missing school — to provide their
families with water.Ӧ Right to health: it is beyond any doubt that this right cannot be realized without securing a right of
access to adequate and sufficient water. More than 3 million people die every year from diseases caused by unsafe water.
WHO estimates that in developing countries 80% of illnesses and more than a third of deaths are the result of drinking
contaminated water. More startling is that approximately 60% of all infant mortality worldwide is¶ linked to water-related
infectious and parasitic diseases.¶ - Right to take part in cultural life: embraces the right of indigenous peoples to
have access to water resources on their lands. The destruction, expropriation or pollution of water related cultural sites
represents a failure to take adequate steps to safeguard the cultural identity of various ethnic groups.¶ - Right
to suitable
working conditions: fresh water is also a key element for this right as it is particularly important for food production and
agriculture, the main income source of the majority of populations in developing countries.¶ Yet, a human right to water
remains imperfectly defined. Among the elements of the newly debated environmental human rights — i.e. the right to life, to
health, to housing, to food and water, to safe working and living conditions — it is only the explicit recognition of a right to
water that has not taken place in a global human rights instrument. It has been suggested that water like air is so fundamental
to preserving a right to life that explicit recognition was unnecessary, and thus little attention has been given to the question of
whether there is a right to water. However, as water is becoming a scarcer resource, the mere fact that such a right has been
envisaged as part and parcel of other rights may be controversial. Lifting the right to water from the shadow of other
associated human rights could be seen as awarding it long overdue standing to be considered as a self-standing right.
Alt Links/Impact
Water insecurity is a form of structural violence at the root of gender, power
and economic oppression Jeremy Allouche 2010 Institute of Development Studies The sustainability and resilience of
global water and food systems: Political analysis of the interplay between security, resource
scarcity, political systems and global trade q Food Policy journal homepage:
www.elsevier.com/locate/foodpol
What about the future? It is clear that water and food management will face major challenges due to increasing uncertainties
caused by climate change and fast changing socio-economic boundary conditions. Hydro meteorological records and climate change
scenarios provide evidence that water resources are vulnerable with strong consequences for human security. Five hundred million
people worldwide currently live in countries where supply is chronically short; the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) predicts these numbers will rise as climate change affects surface water levels that depend on rainfall and glacial melting
(Bates et al., 2008). Heatwaves and water shortages will have an adverse impact on safe drinking water and sanitation, with
disproportionate effects on the poorest and most vulnerable. According to studies by the Feinstein International Center, the number
of people affected globally by natural disasters (including droughts and floods) has been increasing steadily, by an estimated 50,000–
60,000 people per decade, since the early 1970s. The number of reported disasters has also increased year on year, from an average
annual total of 90 in the 1970s, to a figure close to 450 per year in the present decade. The data and projections by the Feinstein
International center suggest a 20% increase in extreme event frequency (Mackinnon et al., 2009). In relation to the water–food
nexus, as climate temperature extremes are predicted to increase in frequency and intensity in future, droughts and floods may
become more severe and more frequent and this could potentially dramatically reduce crop yields and livestock numbers and
productivity especially in semiarid areas. This means that the poorest regions with high levels of chronic undernourishment will also
be exposed to the highest degree of instability in food production. Climate change may affect food systems in several ways ranging
from direct effects on crop production (e.g. changes in rainfall leading to drought/flooding or warmer/cooler temperatures leading
to changes in the length of growing season) to changes in markets, food prices and supply chain infrastructure. Most studies found
that climate change will have a highly negative impact for developing countries in terms of crop productivity and increase risk of
hunger, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa. (Rosegrant and Cline, 2003). Most of the research up to now has been on the bio-physical
aspects of production (land suitability, crop yields, pest regimes – Gregory et al., 1999). The possible impact of climate change on
food accessibility and utilization has been neglected. Recent research by Gregory et al. (2005) and Schmidhuber and Tubiello This
article has provided an overview of the current and future challenges in terms of global food and water systems. The major focus of
the argument has been on how resource scarcity is a contested and subjective concept which cannot fully explain conflict, political
instability or food insecurity. The politics of inequality and allocation are much more important variables in explaining water and
food insecurity. This is particularly true for conflicts. Although resource scarcity has been linked to international wars, the current
data shows that most conflict over water and food are much more local. But there again, although
resource scarcity can
be linked to malnutrition, hunger and water insecurity, in the majority of cases, water and food
insecurity are rarely about competition over resources but rather reflect the politics of
allocation and inequality. In this respect, war and conflicts aggravate these insecurities not just on
the short term but also on the long term. At the global level, food security has considerably improved and provides
the means to address these insecurities. Trade can certainly be seen as a way to address access for countries that are under severe
stress in terms of food and water and provides logical grounds for questioning the various water and food wars scenarios.
Although global trade and technological innovation are key drivers in providing stable and
resilient global systems, the most destabilizing global water-related threat is increasing food
prices and hunger. Overall, decision-makers should show greater concern for the human beings who make
their living in agriculture, so that those at risk of livelihood and food-security failures, especially under
anticipated scenarios of climate change, will be less deprived. Current debates linked to global
food security and climate fail to address the political dimension of resource scarcity which is
primarily linked to the politics of inequality, gender and power.
More deaths from structural than most wars combined – largest cause of death
internationally.
Fischer and Brauer in 3
Dietrich and Jurgen; TWENTY QUESTIONS FOR PEACE ECONOMICS: A RESEARCH AGENDA;
Defence and Peace Economics, 1476-8267, Volume 14, Issue 3, 2003, Pages 223 – 236;
http://www.aug.edu/~sbajmb/paper-DPEDFJB.PDF
Poverty and high unemployment, especially in the presence of conspicuous wealth,
contribute to frustration, social unrest, and sometimes civil war. It is easy to design an economy
that produces luxuries for a few. Far more challenging is to design an economic system that satisfies the human needs for food,
clothing, homes, education, and medical care of all. What are the characteristics of such an economy? What obstacles prevent it
from emerging, and how can they be overcome? Galtung coined the notion of “structural
violence” (as opposed to
direct violence) for social conditions that cause avoidable human suffering and death, even if
there is no specific actor committing the violence. Kohler and Alcock (1976) have estimated that
structural violence causes about one hundred times as many deaths each year as all
international and civil wars combined. It is as if over 200 Hiroshima bombs were
dropped each year on the children of the world, but the media fail to report it because it is less
dramatic than a bomb explosion. How can we estimate the loss of life resulting from poverty and unequal income
distribution? How can we reduce it?
Water Shortages Cause Global Destabilization
Gleick 12
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/peter-h-gleick/time-for-a-21st-century-u_b_1920367.html “Time for a 21st Century U.S. Water
Policy”
Water-related problems also threaten our national security. In our globally integrated economy,
water problems in other countries reverberate back home. Political insecurity and instability is
growing in regions where access to freshwater is a problem, including especially in North Africa, the
Middle East, and South Asia, with growing concerns about tensions in the central Asian republics. Less predictable
hot spots are also likely to appear and there are growing reports of violence and political
disruption over water shortages. in parts of Africa. Just this month the BBC reported that over 100
people have died in conflicts between farmers and cattle herders over land and water in Kenya. Because
conflicts over water contribute to broader political tensions and conflicts, diplomatic efforts to reduce
the risks of conflict must now include an environmental component. Furthermore, military preparedness should include an
improved understanding and analysis of the threats associated with water.
Water is a basic human right and kills more people than malaria. A refusal to
endorse the aff is a refusal to give millions of people access to clean water.
Engqvist 11 [Writer for the Swedish Water House. The Swedish Water House is an
international water association, Engqvist, Julia. "The Human Right to Water and Sanitation." The
Human Right to Water and Sanitation – From Moral to Legal Obligation (n.d.): n. pag. Swedish
Water House. 23 Feb. 2014. Web. 27 June 2014.
A vast number of people are lacking the most basic needs of clean drinking water and¶ proper
sanitation; millions of people lack access to enough safe freshwater to ensure their¶ basic
needs for drinking, cooking and cleaning. Over two billion people live without even¶ basic
sanitation - every year over a million children die as a result of poor sanitation. In Sub-¶
Saharan Africa, treating diarrhea consumes over ten per cent of the health budget and¶ more
than half of the hospital beds are occupied by patients suffering from water borne¶ diseases.
Bad water kills more people than malaria. AIDS and wars combined. Good management of
water resources and provision of drinking water and sanitation is a prerequisite¶ for fulfilling
the Millennium Development Goals: to fight hunger, to guarantee education for all, to halter
and reverse the spread of disease, and to reduce the under-five mortality rate¶ and maternal
mortality.
Recognition as water as a human right leads to more affordable safe water that
generates governments to take serious measures to ensure that its people’s
basic needs are met.
Engqvist 11 [Writer for the Swedish Water House. The Swedish Water House is an
international water association, Engqvist, Julia. "The Human Right to Water and Sanitation." The
Human Right to Water and Sanitation – From Moral to Legal Obligation (n.d.): n. pag. Swedish
Water House. 23 Feb. 2014. Web. 27 June 2014.
Recognition of the rights to water and sanitation at the international level is only one step. It¶
also needs to be reflected in law, policy and practice at the national level. Where States¶ have
recognized the rights to water and sanitation, some communities have successfully¶ used this
recognition to demand increased access to affordable and safe water and sanitation. As more
countries include the rights to water and sanitation at the national level people will have an
important tool to claim their rights. Legally binding remedies are not sufficient on their own,
people need information, they need to be aware and organize. When¶ people are holding their
governments accountable this can generate the political will for¶ governments to take serious
measures within their capacity to realize these rights.
Perm Answers
The perm solves. Multiple actors are key to speed up the process of clean water
implementation. Also, water is a basic human right--177 countries agree.
Engqvist 11 [Writer for the Swedish Water House. The Swedish Water House is an
international water association, Engqvist, Julia. "The Human Right to Water and Sanitation." The
Human Right to Water and Sanitation – From Moral to Legal Obligation (n.d.): n. pag. Swedish
Water House. 23 Feb. 2014. Web. 27 June 2014.
<http://www.swedishwaterhouse.se/swh/resources/1301387796848Seminar_Report_2011_Rig
ht_to_Water_and_Sanitation.pdf>.]
The vast number of people living without access to clean water and sanitation is a moral ¶
scandal that needs to be addressed and acted upon; it is urgent that all actors collaborate ¶
and speed up their efforts to implement the human rights to safe drinking water and
sanitation. It is a responsibility for governments and local authorities but also for the
international¶ community, including international financial institutions and donors. We hope
that these signals of a shift in prioritization will also materialize in the implementation of the
Swedish development.¶ Water and sanitation are issues of human rights: they are issues of
basic dignity and equality.¶ Around the world people and whole communities are denied
housing, safe drinking water¶ and sanitation often due to discrimination. A legal debate over
the status of the rights to¶ water and sanitation has held back progress for many years. The
International Covenant on¶ Economic Social and Cultural Rights, a treaty binding 160 countries
recognizes the right of¶ everyone to an adequate standard of living, including adequate food,
clothing and housing - the Universal Declaration of Human Rights has similar language. So it is
agreed that these rights are derived from the right to an adequate standard of living, and also
includes¶ rights that are as essential to basic dignity. Most countries agreed that any sensible
definition¶ of the right to an adequate standard of living must include the rights to water and
sanitation. So does the UN Committee on Economic Social and Cultural Rights - a body of
independent experts elected by States to monitor the realization of these rights and to
interpret¶ them, but some countries vocally rejected this right and blocked efforts by States to
recognize these rights at the international level. In July 2010 the UN General Assembly
recognized¶ the right to water and sanitation by a contested vote. This resolution was
supported by 122¶ States, none voted against, 41 abstained - including Sweden - and 30 were
absent. In September, the UN Human Rights Council atfinned for the first time that the human
right to water and sanitation is legally binding. The Council stated that the right to water and
sanitation¶ is derived from the right to adequate standard of living. The resolution was cosponsored by¶ several States. In total, 177 countries from all regions of the world have now
recognized the¶ right to water and sanitation at least once in an international resolution or
declaration. With¶ 177 countries having recognized the right, the debate should be over, but
unfortunately that¶ is not the case. The UN General Assembly has not yet affirmed the right to
water and sanitation as legally binding rights by consensus. Opposition to affirmation of the
rights to water¶ and sanitation by some States may block efforts by the UN to take practical
promotional¶ steps such as mainstreaming work on these rights in the work of UN Specialized
Agencies.
Advantage: Water Wars
The lack of freshwater is killing many and will lead to water wars.
Brinkley, 13 Joel Brinkley is the Hearst professional in residence at Stanford University and a Pulitzer Prize-winning former
correspondent for the New York Times; SFGate.com: November 22, 2013 ‘Avert water wars - build desalination plants’
http://www.sfgate.com/opinion/brinkley/article/Avert-water-wars-build-desalination-plants-5002898.php
Get ready for the water wars. Most of the world's population takes water for granted, just like air two life-sustaining substances. After all, the human body is nearly two-thirds water.¶ But a Hindustan Times blogger said
in India right now, as in so many other places around the globe, drinkable water has
become such a precious commodity that it's dragging the world into "water wars to
follow the ones for the control of fuel oil."¶ Climate change is drying up lakes and rivers
almost everywhere. In Australia, for example, an unprecedented heat wave brought on massive wildfires and
that
critical water shortages. As water grows scarce, more countries are building dams on rivers to hog most of the water for
themselves, depriving the nations downstream. Already, Egypt had threatened to bomb the Grand Renaissance Dam
upstream on the Nile River in Ethiopia.¶ And
as the Earth's population crossed the 7 billion mark
last year, more and more water sources are so polluted that drinking the water can kill
you. No one's counting, but various government and private estimates indicate that
worldwide, tens of thousands of children die every day from drinking contaminated
water.¶ By most estimates, half the world's people live in places where clean water is not
easily available. Bangalore, India, for example once had 400 lakes in its vicinity. Now, the New Indian Express
newspaper wrote, only 40 are left, and all of them are polluted.¶ Hence the fights. One of the biggest areas of
conflict is the India-Pakistan-China nexus. Multiple rivers intertwine the countries, and as water levels fall, all three are
building dams to keep much of the water for themselves.
Desalination is a concrete answer to water shortage
CNN 14 CNN American news source; Brandon Griggs (editor) for CNN.com: ‘How oceans can solve our freshwater crisis’ March
9, 2014 http://www.cnn.com/2014/05/26/tech/city-tomorrow-desalination/
The United Nations predicts that by 2025, two-thirds of the world's population will
suffer water shortages, especially in the developing world and the parched Middle East. Scientists say climate
change is making the problem worse. Even in the United States, demand for water in droughtravaged California and the desert Southwest is outpacing supply. This is why a huge desalination
plant is under construction in Carlsbad, California, some 30 miles north of San Diego. When completed in 2016, it will be the
largest such facility in the Western Hemisphere and create 50 million gallons of freshwater a day. "Whenever
a
drought exacerbates freshwater supplies in California, people tend to look toward the
ocean for an answer," said Jennifer Bowles, executive director of the California-based Water Education Foundation.
"It is, after all, a seemingly inexhaustible supply." A growing trend Most desalination technology follows
one of two methods: distillation through thermal energy or the use of membranes to filter salt from water. In the distillation
process, saltwater is heated to produce water vapor, which is then condensed and collected as freshwater. The other
method employs reverse osmosis to pump seawater through semi-permeable membranes -- paper-like filters with
microscopic holes -- that trap the salt while allowing freshwater molecules to pass through. The remaining salty water is
then pumped back into the ocean. Officials at the Carlsbad plant say they can covert two gallons of seawater into one gallon
of freshwater by filtering out 99.9% of the salt. There are some 16,000 desalination plants on the planet, and their numbers
are rising. The amount of desalted water produced around the world has more than tripled since 2000, according to the
Center for Inland Desalination Systems at the University of Texas at El Paso. "Desalination is growing in arid regions," said
Tom Davis, director of the center. "We are making progress in the USA, but the countries around the Persian Gulf are way
ahead in the use of desalination, primarily because they have no alternative supplies of freshwater." Israel, in an arid region
with a coastline on the Mediterranean, meets half its freshwater needs through desalination. Australia, Algeria, Oman, Saudi
Arabia and the United Arab Emirates also rely heavily on the ocean for their municipal water. In the United States,
desalination projects are concentrated in coastal states such as California, Florida and Texas. Some environmentalists
are wary of desalination, which consumes large amounts of energy, produces greenhouse gases and kills vital marine
organisms that are sucked into intake pipes. But proponents believe the technology
offers a long-term,
sustainable solution to the globe's water shortages. One entrepreneur has even built an experimental
solar desalination plant in California's San Joaquin Valley. "When other freshwater sources are depleted,
desalination will be our best choice," said Davis, a UTEP professor of engineering. California dreaming Within
the United States, the water crisis is especially severe in California, which has been stricken by drought over the last three
years.
Water wars are inevitable unless we find an alternate method of procuring
fresh water.
Judge Feb 19, 2013 (Clark S. Judge is founder and managing director of the White House
Writers Group, US News: ‘The Coming Water Wars The next big wars will be fought over water;
February 19, 2013 http://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/clark-judge/2013/02/19/the-nextbig-wars-will-be-fought-over-water)
Globally, similar face-offs are bound to grow in number and ferocity. By 2050, the world's populations
will be a third to a half again as large as today, with the biggest factor driving water
consumption not being the home, school, or workplace tap or even industrial
processes. Seventy percent of the world's usable water is consumed in agriculture—
growing and raising our food. Population expansion is only part of the story. Among
the most hopeful international developments of the last 40 years has been the
incredible drop in extreme poverty, by half. And despite the worldwide economic downturn, vastly
more people are middle income or approaching middle-income status than was conceivable in, say, 1980. India's
"middle class" exceeds in size the entire population of the United States. China's story is even more stunning. And in the
past year there has been talk of an African economic take-off, something beyond many imaginations just a decade ago.
But more prosperous populations are also better fed. For example, it takes about 40 liters
of water to produce a slice of bread, a staple of low-income diets. It takes 2,400 liters to produce a
hamburger, common in many middle-income diets. Put rising population and rising incomes together
and, experts tell us, by 2050 global food needs will double, with water requirements going
up accordingly. Historian Samuel Huntington wrote famously about the clash of civilizations. But as I write I am
overlaying a map of the globe's water-stressed regions with the one I mentioned of regional conflicts. The matches
civilizational conflicts are not the least of our worries. Traditional
statesmanship will take us only so far in heading off water wars.
make me wonder if
Water Shortages lead directly to water wars
New York Times ‘12 (New York Times is an American news source; New York Times Daily:
Water a cause for war in coming decades; reporting on a U.S. intelligence report; March 22,
2012 http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/water-war-coming-decades-u-s-intelligencereport-article-1.1049046#ixzz35VzxYP6J)
WASHINGTON -- Drought, floods and a lack of fresh water may cause significant global instability and conflict in the coming
decades, as developing countries scramble to meet demand from exploding populations while dealing with the effects of
climate change, U.S. intelligence agencies said in a report released Thursday. An assessment reflecting the joint judgment of
the risk of water issues causing wars in the next 10 years is
minimal even as they create tensions within and between states and threaten to disrupt
national and global food markets. But beyond 2022, it says the use of water as a weapon of
war or a tool of terrorism will become more likely, particularly in South Asia, the Middle East and North
federal intelligence agencies says
Africa. The report is based on a classified National Intelligence Estimate on water security, which was requested by Secretary
of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and completed last fall. It says floods,
scarce and poor quality water, combined
with poverty, social tension, poor leadership and weak governments will
contribute to instability that could
lead the failure of numerous states. Those elements "will likely increase the risk of
instability and state failure, exacerbate regional tensions, and distract countries from
working with the United States on important policy objectives," said the report, which was released
at a State Department event commemorating World Water Day.
Extensions
DESAL SOLVES WATER PROBLEMS: SOUTH AFRICA PROVES: Boosts Econ
Tech Sci Research 12 - TechSci Research’s management team comprise of seasoned professionals, The team comes
with a rich educational background from some of the world’s finest institutions; TechSciResearch.com: ‘Desalination Set to Become
an Integral Part of South Africa’s Water Resources,’ March 2012, http://www.techsciresearch.com/1695
With growing fresh water needs and limited fresh water resources, the South Africa
water market is all set to see a new dawn.The eccentricity of the desalination technology and its market is
many a times taken in a whimsical way by various water industry experts and public officials. South Africa was not an
exception to this trend until some time back when the Middle East trailblazing followed, not only there but around the globe.
Further on, being a water scarce country, especially when surrounded by water, in itself is an economic curse not only for
South Africa but for any other nation for that matter. According to a recently published report by TechSci Research “South
South Africa water desalination market is all set
to grow at CAGR of 28% for next five years. The growing water demand and the depleting
water resources has made it imperative for the South African administration to look at
Desalination for their growing water requirements. Recent developments in the market are taking place in the form of
Africa Desalination Market Forecast & Opportunities, 2017”
new plants being set up by the municipalities and this trend will follow for a long time as the Desalination market in South
the technological advances in the Desalination industry is
forecasted to give a much awaited thrust to this market in South Africa. “South Africa
desalination market is at its nascent stage where the government has recently started
encouraging it for meeting fresh water demand in the country. It is forecasted that number
of plants in South Africa will triple by 2017” said Karan Chechi, Research Director at TechSci Research a global
Africa is still a niche market. Moreover
research based management consulting firm. Characterized by periodical and on-going droughts coupled with the growing
water needs of the inhabitants and the other industrial and agricultural consumers, South Africa has very little to further
“Fresh water is a scarce resource
and in many areas is reaching its limits, which implies that South Africa may well have to
adopt desalination to enable reuse of available freshwater and to tap into seawater as a
potential resource for coastal areas” said Solly Mabuda Chief Director of integrated water resource planning
leverage on its existing water resources and more so when they too are limited.
with Department of Water Affairs in an interview with Engineering News. “South Africa Desalination Market Forecast &
Opportunities, 2017” gives a detailed and unprejudiced overview on the Desalination market in South Africa. The report has
critically evaluated all the aspects related to water market and helps the reader to get a complete overview on the latest
trends and the market potential of the technology of Desalination in South Africa.
Desalination is necessary to avoid water shortages.
The Sun News 3/30 (The Sun News is the Grand Strand's local news leader. We are passionate
about our responsibility as Horry & Georgetown Counties' most compelling and trustworthy information
source through our newspaper, other print products and our websites. Desalination of ocean water likely
necessary in future; March 30, 2014 http://www.myrtlebeachonline.com/2014/03/30/4125092/editorialdesalination-of-ocean.html#storylink=cpy)
When Thomas Jefferson was secretary of state of the young United States, he directed that the desalination process –
removing the salt from sea water – was printed on the backs of permits for ships leaving U.S. ports.¶ Long before Jefferson,
sailors at sea used evaporation to obtain fresh water. Distillation techniques apparently date to ancient Greece.¶ In
the
20th century, the growing population of the world increased the consumption of water by
sixfold and the demand for water will continue to increase especially in areas such as coastal South
Carolina, which includes three of the fastest-growing metropolitan areas of the U.S.¶ Developing new sources of potable
water, for drinking and irrigating crops, surely will be a challenge for future residents and leaders of the Grand Strand.
Today, we need only be aware of the situation in California to realize that desalination plants should be in
the thinking of planners. The California drought will have national impact. The snowpack is about a fourth of its normal size,
and there is no water to irrigate crops. Thousands of acres will not be planted with food and ultimately, the price of lettuce,
for example, will increase in Little River.¶ In the last years of a drought two decades ago, a big desalination plant was
constructed near Santa Barbara. As reported by Joel Greenberg, McClatchy Foreign Staff, the plant is dormant and officials
estimate reactivating it will cost at least $20 million. California has more than a dozen desalination projects in various stages
of planning, Greenberg writes. One at Carlsbad, Calif., is expected to produce 50 million gallons a day.¶ Israel-based IDE
Technologies is involved in the Carlsbad plant, expected to be the largest desalination plant in the Western Hemisphere,
according to the article. IDE operates the desalination plant at Hadera, Israel, on the Mediterranean. Greenberg reports that
Israel has “achieved a quiet water revolution through desalination.” Four plants have been
constructed since 2005 and a fifth is to be completed this year. The reverse osmosis plants cost between $300 million and
$450 million. They are privately owned and operated and sell water to the government.¶ Israel also is a world leader in
treating and recycling wastewater. Hilton Head Island was developed on recycled water, a point noted by Pete Nardi,
assistant general manager of the Hilton Head Public Service District. The district has three wells into the Middle Floridan
Aquifer, 600 feet deep, and processes 3 million gallons of brackish water a day. The district is in the process of adding a
The reverse osmosis filtration process is “very
economical” at 65 cents per 1,000 gallons, Nardi says. Water from the aquifer is blended with water from
fourth well which will add another million gallons of water.
the mainland via a pipeline.¶ The process on Hilton Head is different than producing potable water from the ocean, as is
done at the
largest desalination plant in the United States, in Tampa, Fla. That plant produces 10
percent of the region’s water. Desalination remains costly, both in the use of energy (electrical power) and in
pollution from the concentrated waste stream of brine.¶ Nevertheless, increased demand for water
translates to continued construction of desalination plants. There are some 15,000 around the world
and one of the most sustainable is in Perth, Australia. Perth is in the news of the search for the missing Malaysian Airlines
plane.¶ Sometime in
the future, desalination inevitably will be a factor in the water supply
along the Grand Strand. State, county and municipal planners must at least have the
process in their thinking. They should not wait for a major drought.
Freshwater is limited/unequally distributed
National Geographic 14 (National Geographic is a news source dedicated to informing the US about environmental
issues. National Geographic.com: ‘Freshwater Crisis’ accessed 6/24/14,
http://environment.nationalgeographic.com/environment/freshwater/freshwatercrisis/?rptregcta=reg_free_np&rptregcampaign=20131016_rw_membership_r1p_us_se_w#)
Clean Water Crisis The water you drink today has likely been around in one form or another sincedinosaurs roamed the Earth,
hundreds of millions of years ago.¶ While the amount of freshwater on the planet has remained fairly constant over time—
continually recycled through the atmosphere and back into our cups—the population has exploded. This means that every
year competition for a clean, copious supply of water for drinking, cooking, bathing, and sustaining life intensifies .¶
Water
scarcity is an abstract concept to many and a stark reality for others. It is the result of myriad
environmental, political, economic, and social forces.¶ Freshwater makes up a very small fraction of all water on the planet.
While nearly 70 percent of the world is covered by water, only 2.5 percent of it is fresh. The rest is saline and ocean-based.
Even then, just 1 percent of our freshwater is easily accessible, with much of it trapped in glaciers and snowfields. In essence,
only 0.007 percent of the planet's water is available to fuel and feed its 6.8 billion people.¶ Due
to geography,
climate, engineering, regulation, and competition for resources, some regions seem
relatively flush with freshwater, while others face drought and debilitating pollution. In
much of the developing world, clean water is either hard to come by or a commodity that
requires laborious work or significant currency to obtain.
A/T Dams solve: Dams are an inefficient to gain water. We must use an
innovative sustainable way to replenish water supply.
Clark ‘07 (Clark is a major writer for NPR and HowStuffWorks.com, HowStuffWorks.com: ‘Exactly what happens if we run out of
water’ November 2007 http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/earth/geophysics/run-out-of-water1.htm)
To secure a source of water for its people, a government may construct a dam, but dams
have drawbacks as well. Due to their large surface area, they lose a lot of water to
evaporation. And they also serve as inadvertent collection sites for natural salts found in
freshwater. These salts build up over time, and cropland irrigated through a dam may become
poisoned from salt concentrations. This can lead to food loss -- not only the crops themselves, but also
the cows, pigs and chickens that eat the affected grains. Instead of finding new places to grow crops,
farmers with ruined fields may move to cities in search of work. Sudden urban population
growth strains public infrastructure -- like sewers. The poorest residents may find that they have
no choice but to use the water supply directly, without sanitation. Pollution would also
increase through the growth of industry, which may boom with a sudden influx of cheap
labor. If this happened, it wouldn't take long for the common water supply to become
unsanitary under these conditions. The polluted water supply would kill aquatic life, further
reducing the available food supply. Water-borne diseases, such as diarrhea, would spread.
Empirics Prove Desalination Plants work to solve the water crisis
Meed 6/2/14 (Walter Russell Mead is James Clarke Chace Professor of Foreign Affairs and Humanities
at Bard College and Editor-at-Large of The American Interest magazine. Until 2010, Mead was the Henry
A. Kissinger Senior Fellow for U.S, TheAmericanInterest.com: Are the Water Wars Receding?’ June 2,
2014 http://www.the-american-interest.com/blog/2014/06/02/water-wars-receding/)
[Avraham Tenne, head of the desalination division of Israel's Water Authority] said the country
has managed to
close its water gap through a mixture of conservation efforts, advances that allow nearly 90 percent of wastewater
to be recycled for agricultural use and, in recent years, the construction of desalination plants. [...]¶ Since
2005, Israel has opened four desalination plants, with a fifth set to go online later this year. Roughly 35
percent of Israel’s drinking-quality water now comes from desalination. That number is
expected to exceed 40 percent by next year and hit 70 percent in 2050. [...]¶ “Basically this desalination,
as a drought-proof solution, has proven itself for Israel,” [said Avshalom Felber, CEO of IDE
Technologies]. “Israel has become … water independent, let’s say, since it launched this program
of desalination plants.” By meeting its water needs, Israel can focus on longer-term
agricultural, industrial and urban planning, he added.¶ Published on June 2, 2014 12:13 pm
A lack of freshwater leads to large-scale conflicts
Klare 13 (Michael T. Klare is a professor of peace and world security studies at Hampshire College, Salon.com: ‘Will water
supplies provoke World War III? April 22, 2013
http://www.salon.com/2013/04/22/could_water_supplies_provoke_world_war_iii_partner/)
Water provides another potent example. On an annual basis, the supply of drinking water provided by natural precipitation
remains more or less constant: about 40,000 cubic kilometers. But much of this precipitation lands on Greenland, Antarctica,
Siberia, and inner Amazonia where there are very few people, so the supply available to major concentrations of humanity is
often surprisingly limited. In many regions with high population levels, water supplies are already relatively sparse. This is
the demand for water continues to
grow as a result of rising populations, urbanization, and the emergence of new waterintensive industries. The result, even when the supply remains constant, is an environment
of increasing scarcity. Wherever you look, the picture is roughly the same: supplies of critical resources
may be rising or falling, but rarely do they appear to be outpacing demand, producing a
sense of widespread and systemic scarcity. However generated, a perception of scarcity — or
imminent scarcity — regularly leads to anxiety, resentment, hostility, and
contentiousness. This pattern is very well understood, and has been evident throughout human
history. In his book Constant Battles, for example, Steven LeBlanc, director of collections for Harvard’s Peabody
Museum of Archaeology and Ethnology, notes that many ancient civilizations experienced higher levels
of warfare when faced with resource shortages brought about by population growth, crop
failures, or persistent drought. Jared Diamond, author of the bestsellerCollapse, has detected a similar
pattern in Mayan civilization and the Anasazi culture of New Mexico’s Chaco
Canyon. More recently, concern over adequate food for the home population was a
especially true of North Africa, Central Asia, and the Middle East, where
significant factor in Japan’s invasion of Manchuria in 1931 and Germany’s invasions of
Poland in 1939 and the Soviet Union in 1941, according to Lizzie Collingham, author of The Taste of War.
Although the global supply of most basic commodities has grown enormously since the end of World War II, analysts see
the persistence of resource-related conflict in areas where materials remain scarce or
there is anxiety about the future reliability of supplies. Many experts believe, for example, that the
fighting in Darfur and other war-ravaged areas of North Africa has been driven, at least in part, by
competition among desert tribes for access to scarce water supplies, exacerbated in some cases
by rising population levels.
Water is the Earth’s most valuable resource: It’s the basis of economy, society,
and human life. But freshwater is quickly disappearing.
Clark ‘07 (Clark is a major writer for NPR and HowStuffWorks.com, HowStuffWorks.com: ‘Exactly what happens if we run out of
water’ November 2007 http://science.howstuffworks.com/environmental/earth/geophysics/run-out-of-water1.htm)
Our global water supply is becoming more of an issue every day. Even in developed nations, where a plentiful supply of
water is sometimes taken for granted,
the value of water is increasing among the people and their
governments. HowStuffWorks has already found that we can't manufacture water, so what exactly will happen if we
run out? It's ironic that on a planet that is 70 percent water, people don't have enough clean, safe water to drink. But the
freshwater on Earth makes up just three percent of the water supply. And less than one percent is freely available; the
rest is tied up in ice, as in icebergs, glaciers, and snowcaps. This means that
all of the rivers, streams, lakes,
aquifers and groundwater expected to sustain the 6,602,224,175 people on Earth make up less
than one percent of the total water on the planet [source: CIA]. This is important, because the planet is in
the midst of what the United Nations is calling a "water crisis." For some people, the issue isn't a
lack of water, but a lack of clean water: Millions of people die each year from preventable
diseases, after drinking water from an unsanitary source [source: U.N.]. In other regions, water is
simply scarce. A water shortage can affect you no matter where you live in the world. It's arguably
humanity's most vital natural resource. It sustains all other activities; it's the essential basis of
economies, societies and human life. The current crisis results from a combination of factors, but one rises
above the others: the global population boom. As populations grow, so too, do their demands on water. People must be
fed, and agriculture must have water to grow crops and livestock. This puts a demand on naturally available water.
The Time is NOW
UN, 14. (United Nations Government Study, United Nations: “Water For Life,” 2013
http://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/scarcity.shtml ; International Decade for Water Action ;
)
Around 700 million people in 43 countries suffer today from water scarcity.¶ By 2025, 1.8
billion people will be living in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity, and twothirds of the world's population could be living under water stressed conditions.¶ With
the existing climate change scenario, almost half the world's population will be living in
areas of high water stress by 2030, including between 75 million and 250 million people
in Africa. In addition, water scarcity in some arid and semi-arid places will displace
between 24 million and 700 million people.¶ Sub-Saharan Africa has the largest number of water-stressed
countries of any region.
The current middle east drought may lead to higher global food prices. Only
Israel, who invested in desal, is safe from the drought.
AL-KHALIDI 3/7/14 SULEIMAN AL-KHALIDI, reporter for ‘The Star,’ Reuters, Mail and
Guardian, ‘Middle East drought a threat to global food prices,’ March 7, 2014,
http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/07/us-climate-drought-middleastidUSBREA2611P20140307
(Reuters) - The Middle East's driest winter in several decades could pose a threat to
global food prices, with local crops depleted and farmers' livelihoods blighted, U.N.
experts and climatologists say. Varying degrees of drought are hitting almost two thirds of the
limited arable land across Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, the Palestinian territories and Iraq.
"Going back to the last 100 years, I don't think you can get a five-year span that's been as dry," said Mohammad Raafi
Hossain, a U.N. Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) environmental economist. The
dry season has already
hurt prospects for the cereal harvest in areas of Syria and to a lesser extent Iraq.
Several of the countries under pressure are already significant buyers of grain from
international markets. "When governments that are responsible for importing basic
foodstuffs have shortages in production, they will go to outside markets, where the
extra demand will no doubt push global food prices higher," said Nakd Khamis, seed expert and
consultant to the FAO. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) shows the region has not had such low
rainfall since at least 1970. This was part of the initial findings of a joint technical study on Drought Risk
Management undertaken by several U.N. agencies, including the FAO, UNDP and UNESCO, that would be formally
published later this month, Hossain said. Water
and agriculture authorities, alongside specialist U.N.
agencies, have begun preparing plans to officially declare a state of drought that spreads
beyond the Eastern Middle East to Morocco and as far south as Yemen, climatologists and
officials say. Drought is becoming more severe in parts of the Eastern Mediterranean and
Iraq, while Syria, having seen several droughts in recent decades, is again being hit hard, said Mohamad
Khawlie, a natural resources expert with Planinc, an international consultancy focused on geospatial studies in the Middle
East and Africa (MENA) region. In
Jordan, among the 10 countries facing the worst water shortages globally, Hazem
al-Nasser, minister of water and irrigation, told Reuters precipitation levels were the lowest since
records began 60 years ago. Even after an exceptionally heavy snow storm that hit the region in midDecember, the kingdom's dams are still only 42 percent full, down from 80 percent last year, officials say. In
Lebanon, where climate change has stripped its mountain slopes of the snow needed to recharge groundwater basins,
rain is "way below the average", said Beirut-based ecosystem and livelihoods consultant Fady Asmar, who
works with U.N. agencies. He said the stress on water resources from prodigal usage was exacerbated by the presence of
nearly a million registered refugees since the Syrian civil war began in 2011. Only
Israel will not face acute
problems, helped by its long-term investment in desalination plants and pioneering water
management techniques
The United States is suffering from its own drought, which could lead to
skirmishes between the states.
LA Times 6/20/14 Michael Hiltzik, 1973, B.A. in English, Colgate University M.Sc. in
journalism, Columbia University Graduate School of Journalism, LA Times Correspondent ‘Water
war bubbling up between California and Arizona’ June 20, 2014;
http://www.latimes.com/business/hiltzik/la-fi-hiltzik-20140620-column.html#page=1
The next water war between California and Arizona won't be such an amusing little affair. And it is
coming soon. The issue still is the Colorado River. Overconsumption and climate change
have placed the river in long-term decline. It's never provided the bounty that was
expected in 1922, when the initial allocations among the seven states of the Colorado
River basin were penciled out as part of the landmark Colorado River Compact, which enabled Hoover Dam
to be built, and the shortfall is growing. The signs of decline are impossible to miss. One is
the wide white bathtub ring around Lake Mead, the reservoir behind Hoover Dam, showing the
difference between its maximum level and today's. Lake Mead is currently at 40% of capacity, according
to the latest figures from the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, which operates the dam. At 1084.63 feet on Wednesday, it's a
couple of feet above its lowest water level since it began filling in 1935.
The globe is going to erupt in water wars – The Nile will be the first and largest
flashpoint without new methods for cooperation
Laudicina 2013 (Lee A., Juris Doctor candidate at Loyola University Chicago School of Law,
2008. He received a Bachelor of Arts from the University of Michigan, 2005. January 31,
“International Water Disputes: How to Prevent a War Over the Nile River,”
http://www.luc.edu/law/media/law/students/publications/ilr/pdfs/laudicina_water.pdf)
United Nations figures suggest there are nearly 300 potential water conflicts around the
world. 7 Because more than two billion people in the world lack access to clean drinking water, 8 tensions are
most acute in developing countries, where the little water resources that are available are often polluted or
squandered. 9 Additionally, more than “90% of all future population increases will take lace in the developing world.” 10
Many, therefore, recognize the Nile Basin as the most likely spot for a war over water ; 11
former Secretary-General of the United Nations, Boutros Boutros-Ghali, said the next war in Northern Africa
would be over the waters of the Nile. 12 Because population rates are among the
highest in the world, each African country shares at least one river basin with a
neighboring nation. With the ten Nile Basin countries continuing to disagree over its
use, the region must develop a system of water use based upon transnational
cooperation in order to ensure future political stability. 1
With scant water comes water wars.
Arsenault ’12 Chris Arsenault is a senior online producer with Al Jazeera English specialising in
Latin America, natural resources and environmental conflict. He has held the Wolfson Press
Fellowship at Cambridge University, The Phil Lind Fellowship at the University of British
Columbia, Aljazeera.com, ‘Risk of Water Wars Rises with Scarcity,’ August 26, 2012
http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2011/06/2011622193147231653.html
The author Mark Twain once remarked that "whisky is for drinking; water is for fighting
over" and a series of reports from intelligence agencies and research groups indicate the
prospect of a water war is becoming increasingly likely. In March, a report from the office of the US
Director of National Intelligence said the risk of conflict would grow as water demand is set to
outstrip sustainable current supplies by 40 per cent by 2030. "These threats are real and
they do raise serious national security concerns," Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, said after
the report's release. Internationally, 780 million people lack access to safe drinking water,
according to the United Nations. By 2030, 47 per cent of the world’s population will be living in
areas of high water stress, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development's
Environmental Outlook to 2030 report. Some analysts worry that wars of the future will be fought
over blue gold, as thirsty people, opportunistic politicians and powerful corporations
battle for dwindling resources. Dangerous warnings Governments and military planners around the world are
aware of the impending problem; with the US senate issuing reports with names like Avoiding Water Wars: Water
Scarcity and Central Asia’s growing Importance for Stability in Afghanistan and Pakistan. With
rapid population
growth, and increased industrial demand, water withdrawls have tripled over the last 50
years, according to UN figures. "Water scarcity is an issue exacerbated by demographic pressures, climate change and
pollution," said Ignacio Saiz, director of Centre for Economic and Social Rights, a social justice group
Water Shortages lead directly to water wars/failed states
New York Times ‘12
New York Times Daily; The new York times is a reputable, common American news source.
‘Water a cause for war in coming decades: U.S. intelligence report’; March 22, 2012;
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/world/water-war-coming-decades-u-s-intelligence-reportarticle-1.1049046#ixzz35VzxYP6J
WASHINGTON -- Drought, floods and a lack of fresh water may cause significant global instability and conflict in the
coming decades, as developing countries scramble to meet demand from exploding populations while dealing with the
effects of climate change, U.S. intelligence agencies said in a report released Thursday. An assessment reflecting the joint
judgment of federal intelligence agencies says the
risk of water issues causing wars in the next 10
years is minimal even as they create tensions within and between states and threaten
to disrupt national and global food markets. But beyond 2022, it says the use of water as
a weapon of war or a tool of terrorism will become more likely, particularly in South Asia, the
Middle East and North Africa. The report is based on a classified National Intelligence Estimate on water security, which
was requested by Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton and completed last fall. It says floods, scarce
and poor
quality water, combined with poverty, social tension, poor leadership and weak governments will contribute
to instability that could lead the failure of numerous states. Those elements "will likely
increase the risk of instability and state failure, exacerbate regional tensions, and
distract countries from working with the United States on important policy objectives,"
said the report, which was released at a State Department event commemorating World Water Day.
Failed states cause global war
Manwaring 05 – adjunct professor of international politics at Dickinson (Max G., Retired U.S.
Army colonel, Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez, Bolivarian Socialism, and Asymmetric Warfare, October
2005, http://www.strategicstudiesinstitute.army.mil/pdffiles/pub628.pdf)
But failing and failed states simply do not go away. Virtually ¶ anyone can take advantage of
such an unstable situation. The ¶ tendency is that the best motivated and best armed
organization ¶ on the scene will control that instability. As a consequence, failing ¶ and
failed states become dysfunctional states, rogue states, criminal ¶ states, narco-states,
or new people’s democracies. In connection with ¶ the creation of new people’s democracies, one can rest
assured that ¶ Chávez and his Bolivarian populist allies will be available to provide ¶ money, arms, and leadership at any
given opportunity. And, of ¶ course, the
longer dysfunctional, rogue, criminal, and narco-states ¶
and people’s democracies persist, the more they and their associated ¶ problems
endanger global security, peace, and prosperity.65
Regions of the world are running out of water quickly, and desalination is
becoming more of a prospective idea as times change. But Old desalination
technology was not cost effective or cheap, thus not an attractive idea for many
countries.
Gleick, 08 Peter Gleick is the president of the Pacific Institute, Published by Scientific American ‘Why don't we get our drinking
water from the ocean by taking the salt out of seawater?‘ Jul 23, 2008 http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/why-dont-we-getour-drinking-water-from-the-ocean/
Even with all of the water in Earth's oceans, we satisfy less than half a percent of human water needs with desalinated water.* We
currently use on the order of 960 cubic miles (4,000 cubic kilometers) of freshwater a year, and overall
there's enough
water to go around. There is increasing regional scarcity, though. So why don't we desalinate
more to alleviate shortages and growing water conflicts? The problem is that the desalination of
water requires a lot of energy. Salt dissolves very easily in water, forming strong chemical bonds, and those bonds are
difficult to break. Energy and the technology to desalinate water are both expensive, and this means
that desalinating water can be pretty costly. It's hard to put an exact dollar figure on desalination—this number
varies wildly from place to place, based on labor and energy costs, land prices, financial agreements, and even the salt content of the
water. It
can cost from just under $1 to well over $2 to produce one cubic meter (264 gallons) of
desalted water from the ocean. That's about as much as two people in the U.S. typically go
through in a day at home. But switch the source to a river or an aquifer, and the cost of a cubic
meter of water can plummet to 10 to 20 cents, and farmers often pay far less. That means it's
still almost always cheaper to use local freshwater than to desalinate seawater. This price gap,
however, is closing. For example, meeting growing demand by finding a new source of water or by building a new dam in a
place like California could cost up to 60 cents per cubic meter of water. And sometimes these traditional means of “harvesting”
water are no longer available. As such, this cost figure is expected to continue to rise, which is why California is now seriously
considering desalination and why the city of Tampa, Fla., decided to build the biggest desalination plant in the U.S. The International
Desalination Association says that as of 2007 there were about 13,000 desalination plants operating around the world. They pumped
out approximately 14.7 billion gallons (55.6 billion liters) of drinkable freshwater a day. A lot of these plants are in countries like
Saudi Arabia, where energy from oil is cheap but water is scarce. So how is energy used to separate salt from water? There are two
basic methods for breaking the bonds in saltwater: thermal distillation and membrane separation. Thermal distillation involves heat:
Boiling water turns it into vapor—leaving the salt behind—that is collected and condensed back into water by cooling it down. The
most common type of membrane separation is called reverse osmosis. Seawater is forced through a semipermeable membrane that
separates salt from water. Because the technology typically requires less energy than thermal distillation, most new plants, like
Tampa's, now use reverse osmosis. There
are environmental costs of desalination, as well. Sea life can get
sucked into desalination plants, killing small ocean creatures like baby fish and plankton,
upsetting the food chain. Also, there's the problem of what to do with the separated salt, which
is left over as a very concentrated brine. Pumping this supersalty water back into the ocean can
harm local aquatic life. Reducing these impacts is possible, but it adds to the costs. Despite the economic and
environmental hurdles, desalination is becoming increasingly attractive as we run out of water
from other sources. We are overpumping groundwater, we have already built more dams than
we can afford economically and environmentally, and we have tapped nearly all of the
accessible rivers. Far more must be done to use our existing water more efficiently, but with the
world's population escalating and the water supply dwindling, the economic tide may soon turn
in favor of desalination. The Pacific Institute is an Oakland, Calif.–based, nonprofit think tank devoted to solving the world's
water needs. The organization reviewed these issues in depth in a 2006 report entitled “Desalination, with a Grain of Salt.” Peter
Gleick also authored a book in 2000 called The World's Water, in which he and his colleagues explore desalination and other topics.
The prospect of losing water is leading to construction of dams, one such which
is creating tension in northern Africa.
McGrath 3/22/14 (Cam McGrath joined International Press Service in 2001 and reports on
politics, human rights and environmental issues in Egypt and the Arab world, Common
Dreams.org: ‘Nile River Dam Threatens War Between Egypt and Ethiopia’ March 22, 2014
https://www.commondreams.org/headline/2014/03/22)
CAIRO - When Egypt’s then-president Mohamed Morsi said in June 2013 that “all options”
including military intervention, were on the table if Ethiopia continued to develop
dams on the Nile River, many dismissed it as posturing. But experts claim Cairo is deadly
serious about defending its historic water allotment, and if Ethiopia proceeds with
construction of what is set to become Africa’s largest hydroelectric dam, a military strike is not out of
the question. Relations between Egypt and Ethiopia have soured since Ethiopia began
construction on the 4.2 billion dollar Grand Renaissance Dam in 2011. Egypt fears the new dam, slated to
begin operation in 2017, will reduce the downstream flow of the Nile, which 85 million
Egyptians rely on for almost all of their water needs. Officials in the Ministry of Irrigation claim
Egypt will lose 20 to 30 percent of its share of Nile water and nearly a third of the
electricity generated by its Aswan High Dam. Ethiopia insists the Grand Renaissance Dam
and its 74 billion cubic meter reservoir at the headwaters of the Blue Nile will have no adverse
effect on Egypt’s water share. It hopes the 6,000 megawatt hydroelectric project will lead to energy selfsufficiency and catapult the country out of grinding poverty. “Egypt sees its Nile water share as a matter
of national security,” strategic analyst Ahmed Abdel Halim tells IPS. “To Ethiopia, the new dam is a
source of national pride, and essential to its economic future.” The dispute has heated up since
Ethiopia began diverting a stretch of the Nile last May, with some Egyptian
parliamentarians calling for sending commandos or arming local insurgents to
sabotage the dam project unless Ethiopia halts construction. Ethiopia’s state-run television
responded last month with a report on a visit to the site by army commanders, who
voiced their readiness to “pay the price” to defend the partially-built hydro project. Citing a pair
of colonial-era treaties, Egypt argues that it is entitled to no less than two-thirds of the Nile’s water and has veto power
over any upstream water projects such as dams or irrigation networks. Accords drawn up by the British in 1929 and
amended in 1959 divvied up the Nile’s waters between Egypt and Sudan without ever consulting the upstream states that
were the source of those waters. The 1959 agreement awarded Egypt 55.5 billion cubic meters of the Nile’s 84 billion
cubic meter average annual flow, while Sudan received 18.5 billion cubic meters. Another 10 billion cubic meters is lost to
evaporation in Lake Nasser, which was created by Egypt’s Aswan High Dam in the 1970s, leaving barely a drop for the
nine other states that share the Nile’s waters. While the treaty’s water allocations appear gravely unfair to upstream Nile
states, analysts point out that unlike the mountainous equatorial nations, which have alternative sources of water, the
desert countries of Egypt and Sudan rely almost entirely on the Nile for their water needs.
“One reason for the high level of anxiety is that nobody really knows how this dam is going to affect Egypt’s water share,”
Richard Tutwiler, a specialist in water resource management at the American University in Cairo (AUC), tells IPS. “Egypt
is totally dependent on the Nile. Without it, there is no Egypt.” Egypt’s concerns
appear warranted as its per capita water share is just 660 cubic meters, among the world’s
lowest. The country’s population is forecast to double in the next 50 years, putting even further
strain on scarce water resources. But upstream African nations have their own growing
populations to feed, and the thought of tapping the Nile for their agriculture or drinking water
needs is all too tempting. The desire for a more equitable distribution of Nile water rights resulted in the 2010
Entebbe Agreement, which replaces water quotas with a clause that permits all activities provided they do not
“significantly” impact the water security of other Nile Basin states. Five upstream countries – Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda,
Tanzania and Rwanda – signed the accord. Burundi signed a year later. Egypt rejected the new treaty outright. But after
decades of wielding its political clout to quash the water projects of its impoverished upstream neighbors, Cairo now
finds itself in the uncomfortable position of watching its mastery over the Nile’s waters slip through its fingers. “Ethiopia’s
move was unprecedented. Never before has an upstream state unilaterally built a dam without downstream approval,”
Ayman Shabaana of the Cairo-based Institute for Africa Studies had told IPS last June. “If other upstream countries follow
suit, Egypt will have a serious water emergency on its hands.”
Dam in North Africa threatens water war between Egypt and Ethiopia
BBC 3/21/14 (BBC is the leading news source in Britain, BBC News Africa: ‘Will Ethiopia's
Grand Renaissance Dam dry the Nile in Egypt?‘ 21 March 2014
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-26679225)
Emmanuel Igunza, Ethiopia A vast section of northern Ethiopia has been turned into a giant building site.
Construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (known as Gerd) is now about 30%
complete. The whole project spans an area of 1,800 sq km (695 sq miles). Continue reading the main story Once
completed, in three years, it will be Africa's largest hydropower dam, standing some 170m (558ft) tall. At a cost of $4.7bn
(£2.9bn) it will also be hugely expensive - mostly funded by Ethiopian bonds and taxpayers. The dam is located in the
Benishangul region, a vast, arid land on the border with Sudan, some 900km north-west of the capital Addis Ababa,
Temperatures here can get as high as 48C (118F). Most of the vegetation that existed on the dam site has been cleared to
make way for the construction, and the area is now extremely dusty. In May last year, the builders achieved their first
milestone when they diverted the course of the Blue Nile. What used to be the river bed is now being lined with layers
and layers of concrete that will form part of the main dam. Some 8,500 people working at the site, where construction
carries on 24 hours a day. Part of the actual dam structure is already taking shape. The workers are busy at work on what
looks like a huge floor of concrete. Downstream, Egypt
- which relies almost totally on the waters of
the Nile, says their supply will be under threat. Egypt and Sudan currently get the
lion's share of the Nile's waters under colonial-era treaties. While Sudan backs
Ethiopia's plans, Egypt has remained opposed. Talks to ease tensions between the two
countries have collapsed. Despite this, Ethiopian foreign ministry spokesman Amb Dina Mufti describes the dam as
a "win-win" project. “Sudan has already seen the benefits and has come on board, we hope Egypt will see that too," he
says.The
concern in Egypt is about the potential threat to its dominance over the Nile .Egypt
fears Ethiopia's dam will restrict the flow of this strategic waterway - the main source of water in a
country where rainfall is scarce. The row started in 2011, and Egypt has been worried ever since
that its annual quota of the Nile water might be reduced. This conflict comes at a time
when different parts of Egypt are already suffering from a shortage of water. In the
northern Nile Delta, the agricultural heart of Egypt, a lot of farmers are waiting with a heavy heart to see if they will be
able to cultivate their land next summer. "With even less water, we will die. We can't survive," says Hafiza, one of the
farmers. Ethiopia
says its hydro-electric dam will not harm either of its downstream countries, Egypt or
Sudan. However, Egypt is highly sceptical. "It is a matter of life or death, a national
security issue that can never be compromised on," says foreign ministry spokesman Badr Abdelatty.
Egypt is aware that some 30% of the Ethiopian dam is completed. It is still unclear what Egypt's next step will be.
Grand Renaissance dam threatens African war
Carlson ’13 (Andrew J. Carlson is a professor at Capital University in Columbus, Ohio;
Published on Origins.osu.edu, run by Ohio State; ‘Who Owns the Nile? Egypt, Sudan, and
Ethiopia’s History-Changing Dam,’ March 2013; http://origins.osu.edu/article/who-owns-nileegypt-sudan-and-ethiopia-s-history-changing-dam)
The Grand Renaissance Dam The state-owned Ethiopian Electric Power Corporation optimistically reports that the
Grand Renaissance Dam will be completed in 2015 at a cost of nearly 5 billion dollars. As of 2013, the
project is 13% complete, suggesting that it may be many years and billions of dollars before the dam is finished. The
Tekeze dam was well over its predicted budget and years behind schedule. The major obstacle to completion is financing.
The World Bank, the European Investment Bank, the Chinese Import-Export Bank, and the African Development Bank
provided financing for some of the other dams; but
concerns about the environmental and political
impact of this latest dam have discouraged lenders. The International Monetary Fund suggested that
Ethiopia put the dam on a slow track, arguing that the project will absorb 10% of Ethiopia’s Gross Domestic Product, thus
displacing other necessary infrastructure development. Nevertheless the
Ethiopian government insists
that it will stick with its schedule and finance the project domestically. It probably will secure more help
from China, a loyal ally and the world’s major developer of hydroelectric power. The Ethiopians argue that the Grand
Renaissance Dam could be good for everyone. They contend that storing water in the deep Blue Nile Gorge would reduce
evaporation, increasing water flows downstream. The Ethiopians also argue that the new dam will be a source of
hydroelectric power for the entire region and will manage flood control at a critical juncture where the Nile Gorge
descends from the Ethiopian highlands to the Sahel, thus reducing risk of flooding and siltation, extending the life of the
dams below stream. Egypt
and Sudan are understandably concerned about Ethiopia’s power
over Nile waters. What happens while the reservoir behind the Grand Renaissance Dam is
filling up, when water flow may be reduced 25 % for three years or more? After the
reservoir is filled what will happen when rains fail in the Ethiopian highlands? Who
will get the water first? If the question of Nile waters was sensitive in the centuries
before 1900, when Ethiopia and Egypt each had populations of 10 million or less, what
will happen over the next twenty years, as their populations each surpass 100 million and the
collective population of the Nile River Basin countries reaches 600 million? The Grand
Renaissance Dam poses a question as basic as water itself: Who owns the Nile? When the Grand Renaissance
Dam closes its gates on the Blue Nile River, whether it is in 2015 or 2025, the time for a final
reckoning will have arrived.
Advantage: Soft Power
Water and desalination are important tools for the soft power agenda
King 13 (King, Mark DuBois, Dr. "Elliot School of International Affairs." Water, U.S.
Foreign Policy and American Leadership (2013): n. pag. 15 Oct. 2013. Web. 23 June
2014.) (King has a PhD in international affairs.)
Science and technology: The U.S. has the opportunity to build upon its advanced science and ¶ technology capabilities by
sharing data and methodologies that increase the planning capacities ¶ of U.S. and partner nations’ organizations. ¶ ¶
countries with better access to ¶ clean
and safe water will be more stable over the next ten years and beyond. Therefore the
¶ importance of keeping water on the diplomatic “soft” power agenda is a priority
Diplomatic engagement: The 2012 ICA makes it clear that those
under tight ¶ fiscal constraints. Federal budget cuts in foreign assistance create the context for coordination ¶ with new
stakeholders, increasing these partnerships. ¶ ¶ Creative project financing: Interested parties should explore risk-sharing
mechanisms, such as ¶ USAID’s Development Credit Authority, microfinancing and co-investments by U.S. ¶ corporations,
NGOs and philanthropies in water-poor nations’ local water infrastructure. ¶ ¶ Leverage current market opportunities: There
is a high potential upside for U.S. firms to ¶ provide services in areas such as storm water management and natural disaster
response. ¶ There is also a high demand for innovative technologies in desalination and
irrigation. U.S. ¶ firms can do well by doing good. ¶ ¶ The introductory remarks concluded that water is a particularly vexing
foreign policy challenge ¶ due to the complex web of interdependencies it creates. The
United States should
endorse a ¶ global dialogue on the promotion of food security, resilience and
development of large ¶ infrastructure, recognizing that water is at the nexus of
these efforts.
Soft power is a necessity to multilateral cooperation which solves climate
change, disease, crime, and terrorism
Nye, Professor of International Relations, Harvard, ‘04
[Joseph S., “Soft Power and American Foreign Policy,” Summer 2004, Political Science Quarterly,
Volume 119, Issue 2; page 255, proquest, download date: 9-21-07](Accessed 9/12/13)
Power depends on context, and the distribution of power differs greatly in different domains. In the global information age,
power is distributed among countries in a pattern that resembles a complex three-dimensional chess game. On the top
chessboard of political-military issues, military power is largely unipolar, but on the economic board, the United States is not
a hegemon or an empire, and it must bargain as an equal when Europe acts in a unified way. And on the bottom chessboard
of transnational relations, power is chaotically dispersed, and it makes no sense to use traditional terms such as unipolarity,
hegemony, or American empire. Those who recommend an imperial American foreign policy based on traditional military
descriptions of American power ¶ are relying on woefully inadequate analysis. If you are in a three-dimensional game, you
will lose if you focus only on one board and fail to notice the other boards and the vertical connections among them-witness
the connections in the war on terrorism between military actions on the top board, where we removed a dangerous tyrant in
Iraq, but simultaneously increased the ability of the al Qaeda network to gain new recruits on the bottom, transnational
board. Because of its leading edge in the information revolution and its past investment in military power, the United States
will likely remain the world's single most powerful country well into the twenty-first century. French dreams of a multipolar
military world are unlikely to be realized anytime soon, and the German Foreign Minister, Joschka Fischer, has explicitly
eschewed such a goal. But not
all the important types of power come out of the barrel of a gun.
Hard power is relevant to getting the outcomes we want on all three chessboards, but many of the transnational
issues, such as climate change, the spread of infectious diseases, international crime, and
terrorism, cannot be resolved by military force alone. Representing the dark side of
globalization, these issues are inherently multilateral and require cooperation for their
solution. Soft power is particularly important in dealing with the issues that arise from
the bottom chessboard of transnational relations. To describe such a world as an
American empire fails to capture the real nature of the foreign policy tasks that we face.
Soft power key to hard power
Nye, ’13. (Joseph S. Nye Jr., Dean of Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, Foreign
Affairs, July/August 2003.)
One of Rumsfeld’s “rules” is that “weakness is provocative.” In this, he is correct. As Osama bin Laden observed, it is best
The effective demonstration of military power in the second Gulf War, as in
a deterrent as well as a transformative effect in the Middle East. But the first Gulf War,
which led to the Oslo peace process, was widely regarded as legitimate, whereas the legitimacy of the more
recent war was contested. Unable to balance American military power, France,
Germany, Russia, and China created a coalition to balance American soft power by
to bet on the strong horse.
the first, might have
depriving the United States of the legitimacy that might have been bestowed by a second UN resolution. Although such
balancing did not avert the war in Iraq, it did significantly raise its price. When Turkish
parliamentarians regarded U.S. policy as illegitimate, they refused Pentagon requests to
allow the Fourth Infantry Division to enter Iraq from the north. Inadequate attention to soft power was
detrimental to the hard power the United States could bring to bear in the early days of the war.
Hard and soft power may sometimes conflict, but they can also reinforce each other. And when the
Jacksonians mistake soft power for weakness, they do so at their own risk.
Soft power and hard power create smart power
Brito, Brígida (2010) " (Hard, soft or smart power: conceptual discussion or strategic
definition?". Notes and Reflections, JANUS.NET e-journal of International Relations, N.º 1,
Autumn 2010. Consulted [online] on date of last visit,
janus.ual.pt/janus.net/en/arquivo_en/en_vol1_n1/en_vol1_n1_not3.html) (PhD in African
Studies by ISCTE-IUL, Professor in the Department of International Relations of atUniversidade
Autónoma de Lisboa (UAL), Deputy Director of JANUS.NET.) Researcher at OBSERVARE (UAL) and
at Centro de Estudos Africanos (ISCTE-IUL).
Smart Power, a concept developed in 2003 by Joseph Nye and later adopted by
politicians and academics, requires the adoption of intelligent policies which combine in
a harmonious, and often subtle, manner, elements of Hard Power with actions typical of
Soft Power, allowing for more effective and successful results (Nye, 2007). This new concept
values the importance of acting intelligently, determining action in function of specific
needs: national and international context; cultural characteristics, current political
system; economic influences. However, more than any other prior model, this one includes a
strategic dimension, as it is driven by action that involves all, forces the shaping of
partnerships at different levels of intervention, in the concept of global partner, and
values different participation. Following some of the principles of Soft Power, Smart Power avoids
some of the massive deployments of military forces and follows a diplomatic approach
to the resolution of conflicts. It creates conditions for the development of new
opportunities and the redefinition of integrated sustainable strategies, as they generate
autonomy. At the international level, the concept of Smart Power appears to be gaining support and catching the
attention of politicians, academics, and strategists.
Soft power key to myriad global challenges
Nye 09 Joseph S. Nye (former assistant secretary of Defense and Dean of Harvard
University’s john F. Kennedy School of Government), Munich Security Conference, July 2, 2009,
“Speech at the 45th Munich Security Conference”, accessed August 29, 2010
http://www.securityconference.de/Prof-Dr-Joseph-S-Nye.212.0.html
American leadership has been justifiably criticized in recent years, but it is difficult to see
successful responses to global challenges without it. An American foreign policy that focuses on
global public goods – things everyone can consume without diminishing their availability to others – will be essential to
meeting the crisis of global governance. Such an approach could also help America reconcile its preponderant power with
others’ interests. A small country can benefit from peace in its region, freedom of the seas, open trade, control of
infectious diseases or stability in financial markets at the same time that the United States does without either
diminishing the benefits to the U.S. or others. Of course, pure public goods are rare. Most public goods only partially
approach the ideal case of clean air, where none can be excluded and all can benefit simultaneously. Global climate
change – which I discuss further below -- is probably the most dramatic current case. According to the logic of collective
action, if
the largest beneficiary of a public good (like the U.S.) does not take the lead in providing
beneficiaries are unlikely to be able to
produce it because of the difficulties of organizing collective action when large numbers are involved. While this
disproportionate resources toward its provision, the smaller
responsibility of the largest often lets others become “free riders,” the alternative is that the collective bus does not
move forward at all. In 2007, the Center for International and Strategic Studies sponsored a bipartisan “Smart Power
Commission” that recommended such an approach. The terms and recommendations of the Smart Power Commission
have begun to be accepted in Washington today. The United States could gain doubly, both from the public goods
themselves, and from the way they legitimize preponderant power in the eyes of others. America can learn from the
lesson of Great Britain in the 19th century, when it was also a preponderant power and took the lead in maintaining the
balance of power among the major states in Europe; promoting an open international economic system; and maintaining
freedom of the seas. All three issues translate relatively well to the current situation. Maintaining regional balances of
power and dampening local incentives to use force to change borders provides a public good for many (but not all)
countries. Similarly, maintaining open global markets is a necessary (though not sufficient) condition for alleviating
poverty in poor countries even as it benefits the United States. To keep the system open, the United States must resist
protectionism at home and support international economic institutions such as the World Trade Organization, the
International Monetary Fund, and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development that provide a
framework of rules for the world economy. Like l9th century Britain, America
has an interest keeping
international commons, such the oceans, open to all. Today, however, the international commons
include new issues such as global climate change, preservation of endangered species, and the
uses of outer space, as well as the “virtual commons” of cyberspace. But on some issues, such as the global
climate, the United States has failed to lead. The establishment of rules that preserves access for all remains as much a
public good today as in the 19th century, even though some of the issues are more complex. These three classic global
public goods enjoy a reasonable consensus in American public opinion. There are also three new dimensions of global
public goods in today’s world. First, the United States should lead in helping to develop and maintain international
regimes of laws and institutions to organize international actions to deal with not just trade and environment, but
proliferation, peacekeeping, human rights and other concerns. The U.S. benefits from
the order they provide, but so do others. Unilateralists complain that the United States is constrained by
international regimes, but so are others.
Water and desalination are important tools for the soft power agenda
King 13 (King, Mark DuBois, Dr. "Elliot School of International Affairs." Water, U.S. Foreign
Policy and American Leadership (2013): n. pag. 15 Oct. 2013. Web. 23 June 2014.) (King has a
PhD in international affairs.)
Science and technology: The U.S. has the opportunity to build upon its advanced science and ¶ technology capabilities by
sharing data and methodologies that increase the planning capacities ¶ of U.S. and partner nations’ organizations. ¶
with better access to ¶ clean and
safe water will be more stable over the next ten years and
beyond.Therefore the ¶ importance of keeping water on the diplomatic “soft” power
agenda is a priority under tight ¶ fiscal constraints. Federal budget cuts in foreign assistance create the context for
¶ Diplomatic engagement:
The 2012 ICA makes it clear that those countries
coordination ¶ with new stakeholders, increasing these partnerships. ¶ ¶ Creative project financing: Interested parties should
explore risk-sharing mechanisms, such as ¶ USAID’s Development Credit Authority, microfinancing and co-investments by
U.S. ¶ corporations, NGOs and philanthropies in water-poor nations’ local water infrastructure. ¶ ¶ Leverage current market
opportunities: There is a high potential upside for U.S. firms to ¶ provide services in areas such as storm water management
and natural disaster response. ¶ There
is also a high demand for innovative technologies in
desalination and irrigation. U.S. ¶ firms can do well by doing good. ¶ ¶ The introductory remarks concluded that water is a
particularly vexing foreign policy challenge ¶ due to the complex web of interdependencies it creates. The United States
should endorse a ¶ global dialogue on the promotion of food security, resilience and
development of large ¶ infrastructure, recognizing that water is at the nexus of these
efforts. (King, Mark DuBois, Dr. "Elliot School of International Affairs." Water, U.S. Foreign Policy and American
Leadership (2013): n. pag. 15 Oct. 2013. Web. 23 June 2014.) (King has a PhD in international affairs.) Science and technology:
The U.S. has the opportunity to build upon its advanced science and ¶ technology capabilities by sharing data and
methodologies that increase the planning capacities ¶ of U.S. and partner nations’ organizations. ¶ ¶ Diplomatic engagement:
The 2012 ICA makes it clear that those countries
with better access to ¶ clean and safe water will be
more stable over the next ten years and beyond.Therefore the ¶ importance of keeping water
on the diplomatic “soft” power agenda is a priority under tight ¶ fiscal constraints. Federal budget cuts in
foreign assistance create the context for coordination ¶ with new stakeholders, increasing these partnerships. ¶ ¶ Creative
project financing: Interested parties should explore risk-sharing mechanisms, such as ¶ USAID’s Development Credit Authority,
microfinancing and co-investments by U.S. ¶ corporations, NGOs and philanthropies in water-poor nations’ local water
infrastructure. ¶ ¶ Leverage current market opportunities: There is a high potential upside for U.S. firms to ¶ provide services in
areas such as storm water management and natural disaster response. ¶ There
is also a high demand for
innovative technologies in desalination and irrigation. U.S. ¶ firms can do well by doing good. ¶ ¶ The
introductory remarks concluded that water is a particularly vexing foreign policy challenge ¶ due to the complex web of
interdependencies it creates. The
United States should endorse a ¶ global dialogue on the
promotion of food security, resilience and development of large ¶ infrastructure,
recognizing that water is at the nexus of these efforts.
Taiwan escaped poverty and authoritarian rule because of soft power
Yuan-chen and Wu[Yuan-chen, Jiang, and Sofia Wu. "Soft Power Lets Taiwan Overcome
Poverty, Survive Despotism: Lu - Taiwan News Online." Soft Power Lets Taiwan Overcome
Poverty, Survive Despotism: Lu - Taiwan News Online. Taiwan News, 18 Feb. 2012. Web. 24 June
2014.
<http://www.etaiwannews.com/etn/news_content.php?id=1183467&lang=eng_news&cate_im
g=49.jpg&cate_rss=news_Society_TAIWAN>.]
Seoul, South Korea, Feb. 18 (CNA) Taiwan has emerged from poverty and authoritarian rule with soft
power, Taiwan's former Vice President Annette Lu said here Thursday.¶ Addressing an international
leadership conference organized by the Universal Peace Federation, Lu said Taiwan's soft power lies in its
development experience, human rights, peace, true love, and scientific and technological
development.¶ "The ongoing conference is aimed at exploring strategies to promote world
peace, a theme that is closely associated with my longtime conviction of pursuing growth
and development with soft power, " Lu told an audience composed of politicians, scholars and experts from 67
countries.¶ Lu said Taiwan's experience provides a convincing example that soft power as evidenced in peace, love, democracy,
human rights, science, and technological development can help a country surmount poverty and fight off despotism or
authoritarian rule.
Extensions
Smart power applies to all levels of issues
Barzegar 08[Barzegar, Kayhan. ""Joseph Nye on Smart Power in Iran-U.S. Relations"" Joseph
Nye on Smart Power in Iran-U.S. Relations. Belfer Center, 11 July 2008. Web. 24 June 2014.
<http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/18420/joseph_nye_on_smart_power_in_iran
us_relations.html>.]
Well, power is the ability to affect others to get the outcomes you want, and you can do that
through coercion or payment, which is what I call hard power, or you could do it with attraction, which is what I call soft
power. Now it is very rare that people use entirely soft power or entirely hard power. I suppose Dalai Lama uses entirely soft
power, but most of the actors end up using a combination of hard and soft power and the
ability to combine hard
and soft power—carrots and sticks and attractions—is what I call smart power. So an effective
strategy of using power resources both hard and soft is smart power. In the new book, The Powers
to Lead, I explain that leadership and power are closely related and that there is more than one
form of power and that it applies at all levels—both at level of individual or group and state or the interstate
system.
American influence has declined—smart power solves
Nye 07[Nye, Joseph. "Smart Power." The Huffington Post. TheHuffingtonPost.com, 29 Nov.
2007. Web. 24 June 2014. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joseph-nye/smartpower_b_74725.html>.]
The United States needs to rediscover how to be a "smart power." That was the conclusion of a
bipartisan commission that I recently co-chaired with Richard Armitage, the former deputy secretary of state in the Bush
administration. A group of Republican and Democratic members of Congress, former ambassadors, retired military officers
and heads of non-profit organizations was convened by the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. We
concluded that America's
image and influence had declined in recent years, and that the United
States had to change from exporting fear to inspiring optimism and hope.¶ The CSIS Smart
Power Commission is not alone in this conclusion. Earlier this week, Defense Secretary Robert Gates called for the U.S.
government to commit more money and effort to soft power tools including diplomacy, economic assistance and
communications because the military alone cannot defend America's interests around the world. He pointed out that
military spending totals nearly half a trillion dollars annually compared with a State
Department budget of $36 billion. In his words, "I am here to make the case for strengthening our capacity to
used soft power and for better integrating it with hard power." He acknowledged that for the head of the Pentagon to plead
for more resources for the State Department was as odd as a man biting a dog, but these are not normal times.¶ Smart
power is the ability to combine hard and soft power into a successful strategy . By and large,
the United States managed such a combination during the Cold War, but more recently U.S. foreign policy has
tended to over-rely on hard power because it is the most direct and visible source of
American strength. The Pentagon is the best trained and best resourced arm of the government, but there are
limits to what hard power can achieve on its own. Promoting democracy, human rights
and development of civil society are not best handled with the barrel of a gun. It is true that
the American military has an impressive operational capacity, but the practice of turning to the Pentagon because it can get
things done leads to an image of an over-militarized foreign policy.
Smart power produces effective foreign policy
Nye 09[Nye, Joseph. "Get Smart." Foreign Affairs. N.p., Aug. 2009. Web. 24 June 2014.
<http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/65163/joseph-s-nye-jr/get-smart>.]
In her confirmation hearings, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said, "America cannot solve the most pressing problems on
our own, and the world cannot solve them without America. . . . We
must use what has been called 'smart
power,' the full range of tools at our disposal." Since then, editorial pages and blogs have been full of
references to "smart power." But what does it mean?¶ "Smart
power" is a term I developed in 2003 to
counter the misperception that soft power alone can produce effective foreign policy.
Power is one's ability to affect the behavior of others to get what one wants. There are three basic ways to do this: coercion,
payment, and attraction. Hard power is the use of coercion and payment. Soft power is the ability to obtain preferred
outcomes through attraction.
If a state can set the agenda for others or shape their preferences, it
can save a lot on carrots and sticks. But rarely can it totally replace either. Thus the need for smart
strategies that combine the tools of both hard and soft power.¶ In an otherwise estimable new book,
Power Rules: How Common Sense Can Rescue American Foreign Policy, Leslie Gelb argues that "soft power now seems to
mean almost everything" because both economic and military resources can influence other states.
Water programs boost soft power
King 13 (King, Mark DuBois, Dr. "Elliot School of International Affairs." Water,
U.S. Foreign Policy and American Leadership (2013): n. pag. 15 Oct. 2013. Web.
23 June 2014.) (King has a PhD in international affairs.
The session identified another vexing problem. Opportunities for the exercise of “soft”
power ¶ are lost because successful USG water programs often go unrecognized both by
the USG and by ¶ the people who benefit from them. The importance of the USG not taking
credit for projects in ¶ situations where it would diminish perceptions of the effectiveness of
the host nation’s ¶ government was described as necessary in some cases. ¶ Despite these
challenges, tremendous opportunity exists for the United States to strengthen its ¶ global
leadership role by making water issues a foreign policy focal point of a soft” power ¶
strategy. For example, the State Department could facilitate early discussions about
emerging ¶ water conflict or assistance in the development of water sharing regimes.
Water innovations cause immense gains in soft power—empirics
Yee 11[Kuang, Heng Yee. "Once an Albatross, Now Soft Power." The Straits Times (2011): n.
pag. National University of Singapore. 01 Sept. 2011. Web. 25 June 2014.
<http://newshub.nus.edu.sg/news/1109/PDF/SOFT-st-1sep-pA38.pdf>.]
The central importance of water to Singapore's survival was re-¶ iterated recently by Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong at
the 2011¶ Singapore International Water¶ Week in July. “The most important decision was to treat this as¶ a strategic priority
right from the¶ beginning because we knew we¶ were vulnerable," he said.¶ It was “not just an economic¶ problem” but a
“strategic necessity”.¶ Mr. Lee Kuan Yew pointedly¶ noted that Singapore was compelled to confront this veritable¶ albatross
around its neck: “Why¶ do you think we spent all this effort to solve our water problem¶ until we became specialists in¶
water?”¶ Unwittingly or not however,¶ the country has,
in the process of¶ becoming water specialists,¶
turned adversity into latent¶ “soft” power opportunities. Harvard professor Joseph Nye observed that
countries can play a¶ leading role using “soft” power¶ to address global problems such¶ as climate change and ageing.¶
Perhaps taking on board such¶ suggestions, the Japanese government has recently talked of redefining Japan's role as a
“trouble-¶ shooting nation for global issues” by providing solar energy¶ and green infrastructure in developing countries. By
playing its¶ cards right, Singapore
can play a¶ similar role, turning its water expertise into
attractive soft power¶ assets in a water-scarce world.¶ Access to water worldwide is¶ a
global problem. The United Nations estimates that two-thirds¶ of the world's population
will¶ live in water-stressed countries¶ by 2025. The UN held a World¶ Water Day in 2007 to highlight¶ the
increasing significance of water scarcity worldwide.¶ Singapore's potential to help¶ address such challenges is already getting
noticed. At the¶ 2011 international water summit,¶ it was reported that several participants, such as the editor of¶ trade
magazine Asian Water,¶ wondered whether Singapore's¶ water policies might provide it a¶ leading role in helping developing
countries tackle sanitation¶ and water issues.¶ Writing in July for The New¶ York Times, author Alex¶ Prud’homme singled out
Singapore as an attractive, noteworthy model of good policy and¶ practice when it comes to water¶ and that “Singapore's
example¶ suggests we could do a far better¶ job of educating our citizens¶ about conversation". When it comes to
benchmarking global standards, Singapore¶ has played a role in setting the¶ new World Health Organization¶
(WHO) guidelines on drinking¶ water quality, unveiled at the Singapore Water Week this year. It¶ lent water management
expertise, including desalination technologies on treating and storing¶ water, and hosted three
technical meetings. This contribution¶ to the global guidelines stems¶ from a 2007 agreement signed¶ with the WI-IO to share
its water¶ expertise. Mr. Lee Kuan Yew alluded recently to the important role countries such as China can play in¶ solving the
world's major challenges. Rather than worrying¶ about the “China threat”, “it's¶ best to welcome China so it can¶ be part of
managing the world's¶ multi-faceted problems, especially the poverty of the developing¶ world".¶ There
is immense
soft power¶ to be accumulated in doing so, or¶ at least positioning a country to¶ do so
through policies and practices that are attractive to the¶ rest of the world seeking
solutions. While there are limits to¶ what Singapore as a small state¶ can do, Mr Lee's views could¶ equally apply closer to
home, to¶ Singapore's potentially signifi-¶ cant role in tackling the increas-¶ ingly pressing global problem of¶ water scarcity.
Advantage: Gender Equality
Water desalination causes gender mainstreaming—creates equality
Cotruvo 10(Cotruvo, Joseph A. Desalination Technology: Health and Environmental Impacts. Boca Raton: CRC/Taylor &
Francis, 2010. Print.)
Gender mainstreaming is a globally accepted strategy for promoting gender equality.¶
The UN Economic and Social Council (United Nations 1997) defined gender¶ mainstreaming
as the process of “assessing the implications for women and men of any¶ planned action,
including legislation, policies or programmes, in all areas and at all¶ levels," so that
“women and men benefit equally and inequality is not perpetuated.”¶ Gender impact
assessment is increasingly recognized as an adequate tool for¶ implementing gender
mainstreaming. lt is usually applied to policies and programs and¶ means to compare and assess,
according to gender-relevant criteria, the current¶ situation and trend with the expected development
(European Commission 1998). In¶ the same manner that policies and programs may have differential impacts on
women¶ and men, many development projects
will not be gender neutral. Gender-specific¶
effects may not be easily recognized, but an effort should be made to identify any¶
significant effects that may perpetuate gender inequality.¶ Water projects, and thus
desalination projects, have a high potential for gender-¶ specific effects. “Women play
a central part in the provision, management, and¶ safeguarding of water,” which is one of
four recognized principles of the Dublin¶ Statement on Water and Sustainable Development (ICEW 1992). The
consideration and¶ integration of gender-specific effects in ElAs for desalination
plants, from scoping to¶ decision making, are thus highly recommended to evaluate the
advantages and¶ disadvantages of desalination activity on both sexes. Where appropriate, a
distinction¶ in the BIA process should be made between impacts on men and impacts on women.
Desalination allows for water to be distributed equally—it doesn’t fit the
traditional framework
Feldman 13(Feldman, David. "Water." Google Books. N.p., 26 Apr. 2013. Web. 24 June 2014.)(David Feldman had a
PhD in political science and is the chair of the Department of Planning at UCIrvine)
Traditionally, environmental justice advocates have been concerned with issues such
as hazardous and toxic waste storage, disposal, and incineration and their impacts on
racial minorities, the poor, and women - groups upon whom the long-term intergenerational health
hazards associated with these nuisances tend to fall. Environmental justice advocates also argue that
access to society’s most treasured environmental amenities similarly tends to be
inequitably distributed, with the¶ urban poor, racial, and ethnic minorities sharing in
the fewest¶ benefits. In most cases, traditional environmental justice conflicts tend to breed high-intensity
conflict and confrontation.¶ Worldwide, as we have seen, this traditional environmental¶ justice
paradigm remains very important for water, particularly in places such as the Central
Valley where low income¶ communities of color often lack clean water or access to¶
improvements to address toxic contamination, the desire for¶ inclusive participation in
decisions regardless of income or¶ race, and activities that subject indigenous peoples
to cultural¶ annihilation (e.g., dam-building and flooding ancestral lands,¶ as we saw in the cases of Three
Gorges in China).¶ By contrast, water
conservation, IBR pricing, re-use, and¶ desalination do not
easily fit into this traditional frame work for two reasons. First, the perceived benefits
and risks¶ from these innovations are socio-economically cross-cutting.¶ While IBR and
metering mostly affect lower-income communities, recycled water and desalination are perceived¶ — fairly or not — as
negatively impacting middle-class and often¶ majority-comprised communities as well as under-represented¶
populations. Second, impacts from all these
innovations are¶ perceived as long-term and
chronic, rather than short-term¶ and acute (e.g., community stigma, diversion of ‘hard earned¶ tax
dollars’ to special interests). Thus, they tend not to produce the types of political confrontations and demonstrations
associated with hazardous waste, contaminated water supplies,¶ dam-building, or regional diversion. When sudden,
severe pro- tests over water management arise, as we saw with the issue¶ of privatization in chapter 4, it generally
occurs in a specific¶ locality where the catalyst is a discrete institution that imposes¶ unjust and unpopular decisions
(table 5.2).¶
Advantage: Agriculture and Food Security
Water shortages WILL get progressively worse in the future
UN, 14 (United Nations http://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/scarcity.shtml ; International
Decade for Water Action ; “Water For Life”)
Around 700 million people in 43 countries suffer today from water scarcity.¶ By 2025,
1.8 billion people will be living in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity,
and two-thirds of the world's population could be living under water stressed
conditions.¶ With the existing climate change scenario, almost half the world's
population will be living in areas of high water stress by 2030, including between 75
million and 250 million people in Africa. In addition, water scarcity in some arid and
semi-arid places will displace between 24 million and 700 million people.¶ Sub-Saharan
Africa has the largest number of water-stressed countries of any region.
Salinated water destroys crops and has major economic and agriculture
disadvantages—solar desal solves
Balch 14[Oliver Balch is a journalist for The Guardian and an author,Balch, Oliver. "Is Solarpowered Desalination Answer to Water Independence for California?" Theguardian.com.
Guardian News and Media, 28 Jan. 2014. Web. 24 June 2014,
http://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/solar-power-california-water]
Thousands of acres on the west side of California's San Joaquin Valley lie fallow. In official speak,
the former agricultural land has been "retired". Water supplies have always been a problem
for this drought-prone region. Yet what's pushed the area over the brink is salinity.¶ The
problem is in large part caused by farm irrigation, which picks up the salt that
naturally occurs in the rocks and soils of the Central Valley and transfers it through
drainage. Compounding the problem is the tidally influenced water that is pumped into the area from the
Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. A study by the University of California estimates that, left to
continue, the Central Valley could be facing reparation costs of up to $1.5bn by 2030
and the loss of up to 64,000 jobs as agricultural production slides.¶ A California-based
startup thinks it might have the answer. WaterFX's solution comes in the unlikely shape of a vast bank of
parabolic mirrors and an advanced "multi-effect" evaporating unit. The Aqua4 system offers a renewable method of
desalinating briny water, which, if its developers prove right, could put California "on a path to water independence".¶
How does it work? Unlike
conventional desalination, which uses a high-pressure reverse osmosis system
that forces salt and other solids through a membrane, WaterFX cleans water through
use of a 400-kilowatt solar "trough" – hence the mirrors. This concentrated solar still collects the sun's energy,
which heats a pipe containing natural oil, providing heat for the subsequent distillation process.
Solar desalination is key to sustainable solutions for droughts
Isaka 12[Isaka, Mirei. Desalination Guide Using Renewable Energies. Pikermi: Center for
Renewable Energy Sources, 1998. IRENA. Mar. 2012. Web. 25 June 2014.
<http://www.irena.org/DocumentDownloads/Publications/IRENAETSAP%20Tech%20Brief%20I12%20Water-Desalination.pdf>.]
There are two broad categories of desalination technologies. Thermal desalination¶ uses heat to vaporize fresh
water. While membrane desalination (reverse osmosis)¶ uses high pressure from electrically-powered pumps to separate
fresh water from¶ seawater or brackish water using a membrane Policy makers need to consider¶ these different
technology choices for desalination and base their decisions on locally available renewable energy sources. For example,
solar energy - in particular¶ Peat from concentrated solar power (CSP) for thermal desalination and electricity¶ from solar
photovoltaic and CSP for membrane desalination -
is a key solution in¶ arid regions (e.g. the MENA region)
with extensive solar energy potentials. Whilst¶ wind energy is of interest for membrane desalination
projects in coastal and islands communities.¶ While desalination is still costly, declining renewable
energy technology deployment costs are expected no bring this cost down in the
coming years. This is of¶ particular interest to remote regions and islands with small populations and poor¶
infrastructure for freshwater and electricity transmission and distribution. Mapping water needs and renewable energy
sources is a strategic tool for¶ planning new desalination systems Renewable
energy-powered
desalination¶ could be a key enabler for continued growth especially in those countries
that¶ rely on desalinated water for sustaining local communities and productive uses ¶
such as irrigation. As such renewable energy generation should be seen as a¶ valuable
economic investment that reduces external social environmental and¶ operational
costs. Policy makers may therefore wish to take the evolving market¶ opportunities and long term impacts of
technology options into consideration¶ when planning their capacity infrastructure and sustainable water supply needs.¶
Clean water is key to agriculture and food security.
UN 14 ["Decade, Water for Life, 2015, UN-Water, United Nations, MDG, Water, Sanitation,
Financing, Gender, IWRM, Human Right, Transboundary, Cities, Quality, Food Security, FAO,
BKM, World Water Day." UN News Center. UN, 25 June 2014. Web. 25 June 2014.
<http://www.un.org/waterforlifedecade/food_security.shtml>.]
Water is key to food security. Crops and livestock need water to grow. Agriculture
requires large quantities of water for irrigation and of good quality for various
production processes. While feeding the world and producing a diverse range of non-food crops such as cotton,
rubber and industrial oils in an increasingly productive way, agriculture also confirmed its position as
the biggest user of water on the globe. Irrigation now claims close to 70 percent of all
freshwater appropriated for human use.¶ In 1948, the Universal Declaration of Human Rights affirmed
the right of everyone to adequate food. However, access to adequate food in the rural areas of many
developing countries depends heavily on access to natural resources, including water,
that are necessary to produce food. The UN General Assembly declared access to clean drinking water and
sanitation as a human right on 28 July 2010. But the right to water in the context of the right to food is a complex
question. While drinking and cooking water would be protected, water for food production would probably not be
covered under the minimum needs in arid areas.
Food shortages threaten democracies and lead to war
CBS News 08 ["IMF Head: Food Shortages Can Spark War." CBSNews. CBS Interactive, 18 Apr.
2008. Web. 25 June 2014. <http://www.cbsnews.com/news/imf-head-food-shortages-canspark-war/>.]
The head of the International Monetary Fund warned Friday that soaring world food
prices can have dire consequences, such as toppling governments and even triggering
wars.¶ Dominique Strauss-Kahn told France's Europe-1 radio that the price rises that set
off rioting in Haiti, Egypt and elsewhere were an "extremely serious" problem.¶ "The
planet must tackle it," he said.¶ The IMF chief said the problem could also threaten
democracies, even in countries where governments have done all they could to help
the local population. Asked whether the crisis could lead to wars, Strauss-Kahn
responded that it was possible.¶ "When the tension goes above and beyond putting
democracy into question, there are risks of war," he said. "History is full of wars that
started because of this kind of problem."¶ Strauss-Kahn was appointed last year to head
the IMF. He was a finance minister in the late 1990s in France.¶ Also on Friday, French
President Nicolas Sarkozy suggested a global partnership among financial institutions,
governments and the private sector to tackle the reasons for rising food prices. He also
said France is doubling its food aid budget this year to about $95 million because 37
countries are experiencing "serious food crises."¶ Globally, food prices have risen 40
percent since mid-2007. The increases hit poor people hardest, as food represents as
much as 60-80 percent of consumer spending in developing nations, compared to about
10-20 percent in industrialized countries, the U.N.'s Food and Agriculture Organization
has said.
Alt Impacts
Without proper water management the world will be consumed by failed states
and geopolitical tensions
Brown 2012 Lester, environmental analyst, founder of the Worldwatch Institute, and founder
and president of the Earth Policy Institute, “The world is closer to a food crisis than most people
realize,” http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/jul/24/world-food-crisis-closer
Welcome to the new geopolitics of food scarcity. As food supplies tighten, we are moving into a new
food era, one in which it is every country for itself.¶ The world is in serious trouble on the food front. But
there is little evidence that political leaders have yet grasped the magnitude of what is
happening. The progress in reducing hunger in recent decades has been reversed. Unless we move quickly
to adopt new population, energy, and water policies, the goal of eradicating hunger will
remain just that.¶ Time is running out. The world may be much closer to an unmanageable food
shortage – replete with soaring food prices, spreading food unrest, and ultimately political instability– than
most people realise.
Political instability and food security are related and cause food riots
APCSS 98["Food Security and Political Stability." APCSS. Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies,
11 Sept. 1998. Web. 25 June 2014.
<http://www.apcss.org/Publications/Report_Food_Security_98.html>.]
Food security and political stability are often inextricably linked in many countries.
Historically, significant malnutrition and famine have been caused by the disruption of food supplies through wars and
civil strife.53 Yet, the
concepts of food security and political stability are often mutually
dependent and reinforcing. Food security, for example, can influence the political stability of
countries. Simultaneously, political instability (such as wars or other forms of civil strife) can influence food security,
as can be seen recently in the case of Indonesia. One seminar participant noted that the greatest
risk for regime stability is the risk of urban riots—riots that are sometimes sparked by food
shortages or sudden price increases among food products. Generally, starvation in the countryside does not result in
political instability. This is because those who experience the brunt of food shortages tend to be rural and have little
political voice. A
recent example of this phenomenon occurred in India where rising food
prices led to urban riots directed at India’s ruling political party—the Bharatiya Janata Party.
Similarly, when the price of rice soared in Indonesia, thereby making it prohibitively expensive for a large segment of the
population, food riots erupted in eastern Java. The government deployed military forces around markets to prevent
looting. Moreover, China’s sharp rejection of the Lester Brown thesis that China needs to import massive amounts of
grain from the world market in the coming century was partially rooted in a persistent fear within the Chinese
government that food insecurity could potentially provoke widespread anger against the Communist Party and perhaps
lead to civil unrest. Thus, the sensitivity that many Asian governments have about food security may be linked to fears of
social instability and perhaps even political revolution. Food security thus becomes an issue of regime survival.
Impacts
Without clean water extinction is assured
FAO, 93 ["I. WATER RESOURCE ISSUES AND AGRICULTURE." FAO. Food and Agriculture
Organization, 1993. Web. 23 June 2014.
<http://www.fao.org/docrep/003/t0800e/t0800e0a.htm>.]
An interesting observation arising from the preparation of this year's special chapter on water and agriculture is how
difficult it is to generalize about water. Almost any statement requires qualification. For example, while we can say that
water is one of the most abundant resources on earth, we know that less than 1 percent of
the total supply is reliably available for human consumption. Water is a liquid for the most part,
but it can also be a solid and a vapour. Drinking-water is certainly essential for human survival
but water-related illnesses are the most common health threat in the developing world. An estimated 25 000 people die
every day as a result of water-related sicknesses.1¶ 1 UNEP. 1991. Freshwater pollution. UNEP/ GEMS Environmental
Library. No. 6. Nairobi.¶ One
statement, however, needs no qualification: human existence
depends on water. The geosphere, the atmosphere and the biosphere are all linked
to water. Water interacts with solar energy to determine climate and it transforms
and transports the physical and chemical substances necessary for all life on earth.
Solvency
New desalination technology can solve US drought problems while creating an
easily alternated system for adaptable use. Alt tag: Past desalination systems
are not sustainable, but new ones are completely sustainable.
The Guardian 1/28/14 (Written by Oliver Balch, Guardian professional specializing in
business and investment. The Guardian.com: ‘Is solar-powered desalination answer to water
independence for California?’ 28 January 2014 http://www.theguardian.com/sustainablebusiness/solar-power-california-water)
Thousands of acres on the west side of California's San Joaquin Valley lie fallow . In official
speak, the former agricultural land has been "retired". Water supplies have always been a problem for
this drought-prone region. Yet what's pushed the area over the brink is salinity. The
problem is in large part caused by farm irrigation, which picks up the salt that
naturally occurs in the rocks and soils of the Central Valley and transfers it through
drainage. Compounding the problem is the tidally influenced water that is pumped into the area from the
Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. A study by the University of California estimates that, left to continue, the
Central Valley could be facing reparation costs of up to $1.5bn by 2030 and the loss of
up to 64,000 jobs as agricultural production slides. A California-based startup thinks it might have the
answer. WaterFX's solution comes in the unlikely shape of a vast bank of parabolic
mirrors and an advanced "multi-effect" evaporating unit. The Aqua4 system offers a
renewable method of desalinating briny water, which, if its developers prove right, could put
California "on a path to water independence". How does it work? Unlike conventional desalination,
which uses a high-pressure reverse osmosis system that forces salt and other solids through a membrane, WaterFX
cleans water through use of a 400-kilowatt solar "trough" – hence the mirrors. This concentrated solar
still collects the sun's energy, which heats a pipe containing natural oil, providing heat
for the subsequent distillation process. "We wanted it to be highly modular and highly
scalable so the same system is usable for very small applications all the way up to very
large scale," says Aaron Mandell, founder and chairman of WaterFX, which is piloting the idea in the Californian
water district of Panoche. The potential of renewable desalination is exciting interest in other
corners of the globe. For example, Sundrop Farms, which is based in the Isle of Man, has
installed a desalination plant near Port Augusta, South Australia. Located 100 metres
from the shore, the solar-powered plant treats salt water pumped directly from the
sea. As well as returning freshwater, the plant uses hot water generated during the desalination process to heat nearby
greenhouses. Interest is also on the rise in the Middle East and North Africa, which
currently suffers a gap in water demand of about 42 cubic kilometres per year – a
figure that could increase nearly fivefold between now and 2050, according to a recent World
Bank report (PDF). Experimentation in renewable desalination is already under way in Qatar, where Norway's Sahara
Forest Project has embarked on a pilot scheme. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, has plans to build a solar-powered plant in the
Al-Khafji governorate, with talk of more besides. From
a sustainability perspective, the upside of the
technology is huge. The US federal government is currently pumping in about seven million-acre
feet of water into California's Central Valley every year. Replacing a "meaningful
percentage" of that figure – say, 20%-30% - would be enough to have a dramatic impact
on securing water security for the area, says WaterFX's Mandell. The implications for
sustainable agriculture are also vast. After a successful proof of concept stage,
Sundrop is now building a 20-acre greenhouse, which promises to produce 2.8m kg of tomatoes and
1.2m kg of pepper a year. As well as making desert land productive, Sundrop maintains that its approach reduces
pesticide use, cuts food miles and results in better tasting produce. The
arguments from a climate-change
perspective appear especially attractive. Saudi Arabia's 30 or so desalination plants, for
instance, currently use about 300,000 barrels of crude oil equivalent a day. The trend in
other Gulf countries, as well as in Algeria and Libya, is similar. "The status quo is not
sustainable," concludes the World Bank, which describes the elimination of fossil fuel
use in desalination as "critical". As with all new technologies, the key consideration is whether the idea is
scalable.
Sustainable desalination lies in solar plants.
Paulson, ’13 (RWIL Water is an innovative water-centered organization/engineering group
which focuses on providing alternate clean water options. Linda Dailey Paulson on RWL
Water.com: Saudi Arabia Seeks Sustainable Desalination Options; April 26, 2013
http://www.rwlwater.com/saudi-arabia-seeks-sustainable-desalination/)
The perennially dry and water-stressed Kingdom of Saudi Arabia depends on desalination to
supplement its water needs, but as that dependence increases, so too does the
government’s need for more energy-efficient approaches to producing water. The
Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is reportedly the world’s largest producer of desalinated water. There are no permanent bodies
of water in the Kingdom, which also gets very little rainfall annually. It relies heavily on desalination to supplement its
water supplies. The government has budgeted $6.4 billion for water and sanitation projects in 2013 and several water
projects are scheduled to come on line in the next year. The Saline Water Conversion Corp., a Saudi government
corporation desalinating seawater for distribution throughout the Kingdom and its second largest electric power
producer, announced plans in March 2013 to increase its water production by 2014 to 7 million cubic meters/day — an
increase of 40%. The increased production will be supplied, in part, by new solar-powered desalination plants in Khafji,
Haqel, Dhuba, and Farasan. A conventionally fueled desalination plant in Rabigh now under construction is expected to
be the world’s largest. When it comes online in 2018, this facility will reportedly produce 600,000 cubic meters of
desalinated water per day. The growing demand for desalination is also fueling energy demand, notes Bloomberg. The
cost of producing a barrel of water is between 40 to 90 cents/barrel, according to the Saudi Gazette, and fluctuates based
on fuel prices. The publication estimates: To produce water, the Kingdom uses approximately 1.5 million barrels of oil a
day across its 30 or so desalination plants to meet the demand for domestic and industrial water.
Little of this
water — if any is used for agriculture. The water for agriculture — some 85 to 90
percent of the total water use in the Kingdom — comes from non-replaceable
resources, underground aquifers that are drying out rapidly. For every 100 liters per annum
withdrawn, only one liter or less finds itself back into the aquifer. Because agriculture is one of the largest consumers of
water in the Kingdom, the Gazette adds that the government is abandoning its plans for food security — eventually
eliminating government agricultural subsidies — and will rely wholly on imported food sources by 2016.
Desalination reportedly has a significant carbon footprint. Tafline Laylin, writing on Green Prophet,
says 90% of the Kingdom’s water supply is created by desalination, “which leaves the
Emirate no choice but to find new and innovative solutions to water scarcity that
don’t sop up the country’s own energy.” There is increased interest throughout the
Gulf states to make desalination more sustainable through using renewable energy
sources in the production, such as solar power. Saudi Arabia gets between 200 and 300 hours of
sunshine every month.
Solar desalination is able to cut its own costs, make itself energy efficient, and
reduce environmental impacts.
Infrastructure news ’13 Infrastructure news is a leading news hub, with in-depth articles,
videos and podcasts, August 22, 2013 ‘Is desalination the sustainable solution?’
http://www.infrastructurene.ws/2013/08/22/is-desalination-the-sustainable-solution/
Nearly 40% of the world’s population suffers from a shortage of water. By 2050, this
number could reach four billion. Spain, Mexico, California and the Arab Peninsula have already opted for the
desalination of brackish or seawater to meet their needs; but can this option be viewed as sustainable? According to
leading desalination specialist Degrémont, not only is it sustainable, but it
is also the answer to the
rising need for domestic and industrial water, given that 97% of the available water on
earth is salty. “Desalination consists of extracting the salt from salty or brackish water to make it suitable for
drinking or usable by industry or for irrigation. In 10 years, production costs have been divided by a
factor of two, thanks to the efforts of the water treatment industry and the
manufacturers of membranes and equipment, like pumps, turbines and pressure
exchangers,” says Degrémont marketing manager for Southern Africa, Francine Dubreuil. Distillation is the oldest
technology used; however, reverse osmosis – a membrane-based separation process that enables more then 99.9% of
the salts present in the water to be captured – is the most recent technique. Dubreuil explains that Degrémont is
recognised as the pioneer of desalination through reverse osmosis since the first installation on Houat Island in France in
1969. Currently,the company has 250 references worldwide, serving 10 million inhabitants with two million cubic metres
produced. Some 500 000 m³/d of water is produced by plants operated by Degrémont. The flexible solution offered by
Degrémont is not only tailor-made to each project, but the team analyses the raw water quality, examines the
environmental impacts and defines the appropriate line technology, ensuring the sustainability of the solution. “The
solution is also suited to all contexts, such as being used in coastal areas to treat seawater, or inland to treat brackish
water. The freshwater production is also automatically adjustable according to seasonal variations.” This is particularly
pertinent when considering that 42 of the 70 cities with more than one million inhabitants globally without direct access
to additional freshwater resources are located on the coast. Economics versus ecology Ultimately,
when
discussing the sustainability of a solution, the ecological aspects or environment needs
to be a primary priority. This has not always been considered a major attribute of
desalination solutions; however, with the Degrémont’s solution the environment is
protected, according to Dubreuil “Special design of the water intakes ensures no impact on the aquatic environment,
and treatment of washing water before discharge and diffusion of brine allows this to be accomplished without
disrupting the aquatic equilibrium.” In
addition, energy needs can be met from renewable energy
sources such as wind, tidal or solar power. However, the implications on the cost also
need to be sustainable. Costs are controlled with a combination of standardised
processes, says Dubreuil. “Greater yield is gained from reverse osmosis units and membrane
longevity owing to the efficiency of the purification treatment. There is also reduced
consumption of external energy through the use of recovery systems.” As a major
environmental player, Degrémont not only offers its customers sustainable solutions, but whatever the customer’s
problem, Degrémont can propose the right technical and economic solution – up to and including financing, concludes
Dubreuil.