Beyond the Campus: The Future of Higher Education Diana G. Oblinger, Ph.D. Current Environment Educational imperative • By 2025 60% of the American population should hold college degrees or credentials • Benefits health, civic engagement society • Post-secondary education is the new baseline • “Boosting our college completion rate from 25% to 27.5% would yield a full 1% increase in real GDP per worker, or about $125 billion for the US economy.” College completion • Average 6-year completion rate (4-year institutions): 56% • Average 3-year graduation rate (community colleges): 22% • Percentage of 26-year olds with postsecondary credential: 44% • Percentage of lowincome 26-year olds with credential: 26% Cost, demand and funding • • • Costs for education rising Demand for education growing worldwide Funds Government funding declining (competition with medical care, other programs); global economic downturn Costs Demand Economic sustainability • Economic model of higher education may not be sustainable • Competition for funds with ―Health care ―Social security ―Other social programs Can we make it? • • • • • • Instructional and other educational expenditures in public higher education: $151 billion Just to maintain current net tuition levels and enrollment, HE needs an additional $30 billion in state appropriations in 2020 Over past decade, state appropriations for higher education have declined State and local health care expenditures are expected to rise by $103 billion over the next decade Is $30 billion from the states plausible? $30 billion would require doubling tuition —Convening, 2010 Cost containment options • Restructuring employee benefits • Consolidation of operations and activities • Increase academic productivity ― Reduce time-to-degree ― Improve performance monitoring/intervention ― ROI of student support services ― Alternate academic delivery models —Wellman, 2010 The future is already here…. Emerging educational environment • Learners have almost unlimited access to content, tools, resources, faculty, experts • Unbundling of educational activities • Importance of “the collective” is growing • New models gaining adoption Access to resources • Digitized and indexed books (28 million volumes) • • • • Data, archives Access without need to maintain collections on campus New tools for scholarship (e.g., text analysis) Use of “consumer” channels Unbundling • • • • Tutoring and mentoring Available on demand, 24x7 Matches mentors and mentees; flexible scheduling Shared live experiences; whiteboarding Collaboration • CaBIG • Virtual network of interconnected data, individuals and • organizations whose goal is to redefine how research is conducted, care is provided and patients interact with biomedical research enterprise ―Adapt or build tools to collect, analyze, integrate ―Connect cancer research community through sharable, interoperable digital infrastructure ―Deploy and extend standards and common language Community of 1,000+ individuals and 190+ institutions —image from NSF New models • Applications in the “cloud” • Access more important than ownership • Individuals choose what they want; applications and services are publicly available • Many available on-demand Imagine the impact Educational investments Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA) CTA for program design: $20,000 CTA for course design: $5,000 Interactive Media Java and Flash-rich training: $5,000+ per hour of instruction Complex simulations: $25,000+ per hour of simulation Platforms Adaptive e-learning platform development: $1020M (5 years) —Saxberg, 2010 Benefits of CTA Efficiency Engagement Effectiveness Reduce time and materials by 20% Reduces attrition (e.g., 50% in Chemistry) Reduces 1st year onthe-job error rates Faster and simpler to keep training up-to-date Provides rigorous basis for counseling Clear link from work success to training —Saxberg, 2010 Adaptive testing • Knewton: adaptive testing for LSAT and GMAT • Personalized learning plan constantly recalibrated based on results • • Daily, unique learning plan developed daily, tailored to: ―Concept ―Difficulty level ―Media type ―Calendar (hours you plan to study, hours you are available) Live, virtual classrooms (also archived) Impact What would the impact be, financially and in terms of opportunity cost, if…. • …you could reduce time-to-degree by one semester • …you could reduce the cost per semester by one course • …you could personalize learning to the needs of the student Open educational resources • • Flat World Knowledge; free, peer-reviewed textbooks online Build-a-book, community tools; notetaking • • Open educational resources Share, modify Impact If you could invest the cost of textbooks elsewhere…. • …Current textbook market is estimated at $8.2 billion (over $9 billion by 2014) • …assume $100 per textbook for English composition; 46,000 students/year • …where might you invest $4.6 million on behalf of your students? —Green, 2010 (figures for Washington State Technical Colleges) Analytics • Large data sets; data extraction • Data warehousing • Statistical techniques • Predictive modeling • “Actionable intelligence” • Uses: ―Student recruitment ―Student retention Impact If you could monitor student progress what impact might that have…. • …if a student knew to change his/her study habits before receiving a low test score • …if a faculty member had enough information on when and how to effectively intervene • …if an advisor could interrupt recurring patterns of failure New Models StraighterLine • • • • Required college courses Start any time; no required meeting times Individualized, on-demand support (online) Transfer credits to partner college(s) Peer 2 Peer University • • • • • • Enable communities of people to support learning for each other Open educational resources, structured courses Run and governed by volunteers Learning groups: 8-14 people Peers in the courses assess each other’s work Online certificates of completion WGU • • • • • • Credit for prior learning; competencies developed with industry experts Objective and performance-based assessment of competencies WGU faculty identify best existing courses; acquire rights to use them Faculty serve as mentors, also peer mentoring Accelerated degree options 30% growth rate Higher education as a gateway • Colleges and universities represent 35% of the entire postsecondary education and training system • • • • On-the-job training Employer education Military training Apprenticeships • HE provides entry to jobs with greatest access to employer-provided training • Training can increase earnings 3-11% —Carnevale, et al., 2010 BYU-Idaho • Three imperatives ―Improve every aspect of the student experience ―Serve more students ―Lower the relative cost of education • Strategic initiatives ―New academic calendar ―Learning model ―Online learning —Clark, 2010 Academic changes • Three semesters • Three track admission system • Academic day: 7:45 am – 5:30 pm • Classes: 60 minutes • Average class size: 30 • Maximum class size: 85 • No differential rank among faculty —Clark, 2010 Learning model • • • • • Push the edge of current understanding Seek truth and recognize the value of all sources of new insight, knowledge, and understanding Pursue education as a developmental experience for the whole person Act for themselves and accept responsibility for learning and teaching Respect, serve, and teach each other —Clark, 2010 Online/hybrid model Online/hybrid courses ―Designed to learning model principles ―Cohort and semester-based ―Learning teams ―Skilled instructors (remote adjunct) Integrated curriculum ―Designed/developed by faculty on campus ―Same courses delivered on and off campus Increase on-campus capacity ―Target: 20% of student credit hours online by 2012 —Clark, 2010 Enrollment growth 25000 BYU-Idaho Unduplicated Headcount 22997 23000 21820 21000 20130 19000 17385 17000 15410 15000 14892 14874 13000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 —Clark, 2010 Total operating cost per FTE student $9,000 $8,000 $7,000 111 109 $6,000 104 106 105 105 101 100 105 106 2009 2010 102 $5,000 $4,000 1996- 199797 98 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Projected Total Operating Expenditures per Student FTE in 2000 Constant $$s —Clark, 2010 “Game Changers” The network • Everything (and everyone) is interconnected • Internet provides an architecture for participation and collaborative creation • Society benefits from small, cumulative contributions of millions of people • Use by everyone does not exclude use by anyone —Digital Connections Council, 2006 —image credit Collective intelligence • • • • • • Knowledge is created not possessed Shift in emphasis, e.g., wikipedia is a process not a product Collective intelligence: everyone has something to contribute Social connections are important Openness; sharing Traditional barriers become permeable —Jenkins, 2008 From campus to “the cloud” Cloud layer IT infrastructure IT services IT support Consumer layer 1990 2000 2010 2030 --Katz, 2009 Worth Considering Helping students graduate from college takes 16 years, not 4 years. Learning should be part of your life, not an episode in your life. You learn to do what you do. College is what students experience. doblinger@educause.edu © 2010 All rights reserved