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Thomas Malthus (1766-1834)
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Essay on the Principle of
Population 1798
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Consequences:
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
Population growth would press against available resources
Disease, famine, war would ensue 
Population Growth vs Food
Supply
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Population growing too fast for food supply
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Pop grows geometrically while population growths arithmetically
Example:
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Today- 1 person, 1 unit of food
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25 years- 2 people, 2 u.o.f.
50 years- 4 people, 3 u.o.f.
75 years- 8 people, 4 u.o.f

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Two problems even worse than in Malthus’ time
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Malthus failed to anticipate that poor countries would have rapid pop growth
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Resource gap wider than
Malthus assumed
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World pop is outstripping resources
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Not just food production

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Unrealistically pessimistic
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Malthus based theory on idea that supply of resources is fixed, not expanding
Larger pop can stimulate economic growth
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Economic development
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Poverty, hunger, etc. caused by lack of economic development with unjust social and economic institutions NOT population growth
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Malthus’s arithmetic – capitalism (Engels’ Theory)
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Too few people can retard the economy just as too many
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Resources should be shared equally
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More people = more power?
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Political leaders in Africa
More pop = more men in army

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Conditions last halfcentury do not support Malthus theory
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Food production has increased dramatically
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Green revolution
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Wheat production X2
Slowed recently?

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Food production increased more than Malthus predicted
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Malthus’s model expected that the pop would quadruple but it didn’t
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Rate of Natural Increase is decreasing
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More deaths or less births
Exception LDCs

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Economic Development:
 lowering birth rates improve economic conditions
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 women more likely to attend school increased knowledge of family planning better health care programs

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World can’t wait for economic improvement
LDC’s demand is greater than supply
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Still is occurring
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Bangladesh, Colombia,
Morocco, Thailand
Has not spread to Africa
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Reflects the status of women
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Contraceptives a religious issue and political issue

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
Became independent
1947
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Began a population planning program in 1950’s
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Census in 1960’s reveals extreme growth
During the 1970’s the
Indian government began a policy of forced sterilization of any man with three or more children.
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3.7 million were sterilized
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Public outcry and opposition
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Today sterilization is making a comeback
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Propaganda now encouraging “small” families
•
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India gendercide
China’s One Child Policy
•
Forced abortion

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Epidemiologic transition:
 focuses on distinctive causes of death in each stage of the demographic transition
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Epidemiology:
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Branch of medical science concerned with the incidence, distribution, and control of diseases that affect large numbers of people

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Stage 1: Pestilence and famine
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Infectious and parasitic diseases were principal causes of human death
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Malthus called these
“natural checks”
Example:
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Black Plague
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Stage 2: Receding
Pandemics
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Pandemic is a disease that occurs over a wide and affects a very high proportion of the population
Industrial revolution helped slow spread of disease
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Not immediately
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Example:
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Cholera

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Bubonic plague
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Worst stage 1 case
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From Kyrgyzstan brought by Tatar army
Spread from urban areas to rural areas
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Western Europe 1348
Northern Europe 1349
Wiped out entire villages and families
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United States- 25 million died
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China – 13 million died

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Stage 2
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Pandemic: disease occurs over a wide geographic area
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Poor people crowded into industrial cities
½ million in NYC died in 1832
1/8 th population of Cairo 1831
Geographic Models the key to understanding

Edwin Chadwick (1800-1890)
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Residents in poorer neighborhoods had higher incidences of Cholera
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Dr. John Snow (1813-1858)
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Mapped distribution of deaths in London
Not a cause of sinful behavior
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Water pumps the cause

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Stage 3: Degenerative and human-created diseases
 characterized by a decrease in deaths from infectious deaths and chronic disorders associated with aging
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Cardiovascular disease cancer
Decline in infectious diseases has been sharp in stage 3 countries
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Recently LDCs recently moved from stage 2 to stage 3
Effective vaccines
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Stage 4: delayed degenerative diseases
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Cardiovascular disease and cancer still linger but life expectancy extended
Improved healthcare
Improving behaviors as well
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Better diet
Reduced use of tobacco, alcohol, and exercise

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Stage of reemergence of infectious diseases and parasitic disease
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Old and new have emerged
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Three reasons:
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Evolution
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Microbes evolved, changed = resistant
Example: Malaria
Poverty
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TB in LDCs
Long, expensive treatment
Improved travel
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H1N1