In the Shadow of Malthus
J. Bradford DeLong
UC Berkeley
Required Readings
• Rick Steckel (2008), "Biological Measures of the Standard of Living",
Journal of Economic Perspectives 22:1 (Winter), pp. 129-52
http://www.aeaweb.org/articles.php?doi=10.1257/jep.22.1.129
• Thomas Malthus (1798), An Essay on the Principle of Population,
Chapters 1-2, pp.1-11, Electronic Scholarly Publishing Project, 1998.
http://www.esp.org/books/malthus/population/malthus.pdf
• Gregory Clark (2007), A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History
of the World, Chapter 2, “The Logic of the Malthusian Economy,”
pp. 19-39 and Chapter 3, “Living Standards,” pp. 40-70. Princeton:
Princeton University Press. On reserve at Graduate Services. An
earlier draft (not preferred) is available at
http://tinyurl.com/dl20090112e (chapter 2) and
http://tinyurl.com/dl20090112j (chapter 3)
Richard H. Steckel (2008), "Biological
Measures of the Standard of Living”
• When economists investigate long-term trends and socioeconomic
differences in the standard of living or quality of life, they have
traditionally focused on monetary measures such as gross domestic
product -- which has occupied center stage for over 50 years. In recent
decades, however, scholars have increasingly recognized the limitations of
monetary measures while seeking useful alternatives. This essay examines
the unique and valuable contributions of four biological measures -- life
expectancy, morbidity, stature, and certain features of skeletal remains -to understand levels and changes in human well-being. People desire far
more than material goods and in fact they are quite willing to trade or give
up material things in return for better physical or psychological health. For
most people, health is so important to their quality of life that it is useful
to refer to the "biological standard of living." Biological measures may be
especially valuable for historical studies and for other research
circumstances where monetary measures are thin or lacking. A concluding
section ruminates on the future evolution of biological approaches in
measuring happiness.
The Coming of Agriculture
Agricultural Plantation Slavery
Health and Wealth
Demography Before Modern
Economic Growth
What Does It Mean for a Human Population to
Grow at Only 1%/Generation?
• A hunter-gatherer population?
• An agricultural population?
• An industrial/post-industrial population?
Nasty, Brutish, and Short
• The phrase is Thomas
Hobbes’s
• Modern standard of living
is worth 10 cm.
• Practically every nonaristo skeleton from our
agrarian past is really
short
– Exceptions: fish eaters
– Exceptions: Souix
– Exceptions: Huntergatherers
• What does being 10 cm.
shorter do to brain
development?
Demography Before and During
Modern Economic Growth
Thomas Malthus (1798), An Essay on
the Principle of Population
• “Let us imagine for a moment Mr. Godwin's beautiful
system of equality realized in its utmost purity…”
– William Godwin, Enquiry Concerning Political Justice
– Marie Jean Antoine Nicolas de Caritat, Marquis de
Condorcet, Sketch for a Historical Picture of the Progress of
the Human Mind
• Demography pins the standard of living to
“subsistence” as long as technological progress is
“slow”
• G.W.F. Hegel: “die Eule der Minerva beginnt erst mit
der einbrechenden Dämmerung ihren Flug”
– “The owl of Minerva flies only at dusk”
Gregory Clark: “The Logic of the Malthusian
Economy” and “Living Standards”
• A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of
the World, chapters 2 and 3
– “From 1340 to 1680 the population of the major
European countries actually fell slightly… the
average number of surviving children per
woman… ranged from 1.90 in the Netherlands to
1.99 in France…”
– Figure 6 live births per adult woman…
Living Standards Across Time and
Space from Clark (2007)
Direct Estimates of Long-Run Real
Wage Trends
• We know what
monks paid their
construction
workers.
• We know what
bread and other
staples cost.
• Questions about
whether these
workers are in any
sense representative
A Malthusian Economy? When
and Why?
• We are not terribly
unhappy with our
population estimates.
• We are unhappy with
our estimates of modern
economic growth
– But the thing itself exists
– And before MEG there
must have been living
standard stagnation
• Those together imply the
picture that we have.
Malthus’s Policy
Recommendations
• All of the action is
in Csub, therefore...
• Delaying the start
of sexual activity
humanity’s only
chance:
– Patriarchy
– Theocracy
– Monarchy
•
•
a most disheartening reflection that the
great obstacle in the way to any
extraordinary improvement in society is of a
nature that we can never hope to
overcome..... Yet, discouraging as the
contemplation of this difficulty must be to
those whose exertions are laudably directed
to the improvement of the human species, it
is evident that no possible good can arise
from any endeavours to slur it over or keep it
in the background.
On the contrary, the most baleful mischiefs
may be expected from the unmanly conduct
of not daring to face truth because it is
unpleasing.... [I]f we unwisely direct our
efforts towards an object in which we cannot
hope for success, we shall not only exhaust
our strength in fruitless exertions and remain
at as great a distance as ever from the
summit of our wishes, but we shall be
perpetually crushed by the recoil of this rock
of Sisyphus...
Malthus’s Theory
• A pretty good
theory as of
1800...
• Not at all a good
theory as of
1850...
• An absolutely
lousy theory as of
today...
– Or is it?