Forecasting Volcanic Eruptions:
Practical exercises for student scientists
Liz Westby
U.S. Geological Survey
Cascades Volcano Observatory
May 27, 2015
LWestby@usgs.gov
Eruption Forecasting:
An Art Based in Science
 Volcanoes are complex systems
 Interplay of variables (magma composition(s),
volume, pressure, temperature, stress, strain)
 Largely unseen but for “snap-shots” from
volcano monitoring instruments
 Decisions must be made
 Consequences can be serious
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Eruption Forecasting:
Tools of the Trade
 Seismicity: earthquakes, harmonic tremor, the root of
most volcano monitoring networks
 GPS: resolves surface motion of a few centimeters or
greater that occur over timescales of weeks to years
 Tilt: resolves small-magnitude, short-timescale surface
deformation
 Volcanic Gases: composition, concentration, emission
rate
 Field Observations (web cameras): 24-hour visibility
during good weather
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Mount St. Helens Science & Learning Center
Online Activities
Testing phase
Age: middle school, curious
public
Activities: self-guided,
worksheet-driven activities for
seismicity, deformation, gas
emissions, and forecasting of
an eruption of Mount St.
Helens
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Volcano Seismicity
(www.mshslc.org/activity/volcano-seismicity/)
PART 1. INTRODUCTION TO
VOLCANIC EARTHQUAKES
PART 2: ANALYZING SEISMIC
DATA
Not all earthquakes in volcanic areas
indicate an approaching eruption.
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Volcano Deformation
(www.mshslc.org/activity/volcano-deformation/)
PART 1. INTRODUCTION TO DEFORMATION
PART 2. DEFORMATION MONITORING
PART 3. MEASURE TILT
PART 4. ANALYZE TILT DATA
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Volcanic Gas Emissions
(www.mshslc.org/activity/gas-emissions/)
PART 1. INTRODUCTION TO VOLCANIC GASES
PART 2. MONITORING GAS EMISSIONS
PART 3. ANALYZE GAS DATA
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Forecasting an Eruption
(www.mshslc.org/activity/forecasting-an-eruption/)
PART 1. EXAMINE MONITORING DATA
SEISMICITY
DEFORMATION
GAS EMISSIONS
PARTS 2 AND 3. SET THE ALERT LEVEL
PART 4. INFORM THE PUBLIC ABOUT HAZARDS
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Monday Morning Meeting at the
Hawaiian Volcano Observatory
(nagt.org/nagt/teaching_resources/vepp/examples/48383.html)
Age: High school to university level
Activity: Students examine graphs and roleplay to collaboratively assess volcanic threats
and decide on a future course of action.
Resources: Worksheets, grading rubric, data
on NAGT web site and can be distributed via
hard copy. VEPP web site under development.
Activity tracks events leading up to the July 21,
2007 eruption when a small fissure eruption
occurred on the east flank of Pu'u 'Ō'ō.
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July 21, 2007 Fissure Eruption
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Seismic Data
(3 maps and graphs)
Pu’u ’Ō’ō crater
GPS Data
(3 maps and graphs)
Pu’u ’Ō’ō crater
Tilt Data
(4 maps and graphs)
Pu’u ’Ō’ō crater
July 4, 2007
Webcam
(18 images)
July 8, 2007
Monday Morning Meeting Exercise
 Expert Groups: Students divided into 4 “expert” groups: (1) tilt;
(2) GPS; (3) seismic; (4) webcam. Worksheet questions drive the
discussion. Goal: each group formulates hypotheses about the
current and possible future behavior based on specific data.
 Interdisciplinary Groups: Students divided into interdisciplinary
groups, with each new group containing at least one of the experts.
Each expert talks for ~1 minute to tell the rest of the group what
their data are used for, advantages/disadvantages and their
interpretation. Goal: Develop an interpretation of what is
happening that satisfies all data types.
 Report-back: Each group presents their findings to the rest of the
class and the Scientist-in-Charge. Goal: evaluate the findings,
discuss the evidence and uncertainties, decide on course of action.
 Written Report: Optional written report or students prepare a
volcano update.
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Recent Kilauea Status Reports, Updates, and Information Releases
HAWAIIAN VOLCANO OBSERVATORY DAILY UPDATE
U.S. Geological Survey
Tuesday, May 26, 2015 8:07 AM HST (Tuesday, May 26, 2015 18:07 UTC)
This report on the status of Kilauea volcanic activity was prepared by the USGS Hawaiian Volcano Observatory
(HVO). All times are Hawai`i Standard Time.
KILAUEA VOLCANO (VNUM #332010)
19°25'16" N 155°17'13" W, Summit Elevation 4091 ft (1247 m)
Current Volcano Alert Level: WATCH
Current Aviation Color Code: ORANGE
Activity Summary: Seismicity rates are currently normal beneath Kīlauea's summit and deflationary tilt is ongoing.
At the East Rift Zone eruption site, surface flows continue to be active within about 8.6 km (5.3 mi) of Puʻu ʻŌʻō.
Summit Observations: Seismicity rates beneath Kīlauea's summit, upper East Rift Zone and Southwest Rift Zone
were at normal, background levels during the past day. The summit tiltmeter network has recorded minor
deflationary tilt at all stations beginning at about 1800 on May 24. Sulfur dioxide emission rates ranged between
3,800-8,500 tonnes/day for the week ending May 22.
Puʻu ʻŌʻō Observations: The tiltmeter on the north flank of Puʻu ʻŌʻō continues to show no significant tilt, and
seismicity rates have been normal. The sulfur dioxide emission rate from all East Rift Zone vents was about 360
tonnes/day when last measured on May 19, 2015.
June 27th Lava Flow Observations: Webcam images and satellite imagery continue to show surface flow activity
from several breakouts in an area northeast Puʻu ʻŌʻō. All surface flows are occurring within 8.6 km (5.3 mi) of
Puʻu ʻŌʻō.
Eruption Forecasting:
Student Outcomes
 Increase understanding of volcanoes and
volcano monitoring techniques
 Application of critical thinking, interpretation
based on evidence and reasoning, handling of
uncertainties and ambiguities, decision-making,
leadership
 Collaboration, discussion, presentation
 Growth in personal knowledge about volcanoes
and real-world readiness for the next eruption
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Resources
 USGS Volcano Hazards Program (volcanoes.usgs.gov/)
 USGS Volcano Monitoring Data Links
(volcanoes.usgs.gov/activity/data/index.php)
 USGS–Cascades Volcano Observatory
(volcanoes.usgs.gov/observatories/cvo/)
 USGS–Hawaiian Volcano Observatory
(hvo.wr.usgs.gov/)
 Mount St. Helens Institute (www.mshinstitute.org/)
 NAGT Teaching Resources – Monday Morning Meeting
(nagt.org/nagt/teaching_resources/vepp/examples/48
383.html)
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