New directions in research, new findings and continuing key
concerns issues on climate change and water resources
Max Campos Regional Committe on Hydraulic Resources-Central America
Water resources and climate change
Interdisciplinary analyses
Lack of information about some parts of hydrological cycle
Hydrological views of climate (design purposes)
Hydrological cycle
Biophysical impacts
(man)
Impacts cycle for water studies
Policy makers
Environmental &
social
..... require an interdisciplinary approach
comprehensive studies of climate and water issues have omitted
the social scientists, producing results that are difficult for
decision makers to use.
.......particularly in the world of policy development, are the views of
hydrologists about climate and its change. Most hydrologic studies of
extreme events such as floods and droughts have assumed stationarity of
climate over time
.......the importance of including climatic variability in water resources
management), for example: moderate fluctuations in climate may
produce major hydrologic changes, and in one case noted that a 25 %
increase in precipitation in a basin increased the mean annual runoff by
50-70%.
.......policy-makers addressing the impacts of climate change on water
resources typically are most aware of views of hydrologists . This can
result in confusion and loss of credibility about the issues, and inaction
at the policy making levels.
Middle 80s. emphasis research:
. the effects on precipitation of CO2 induced global warming.
. how climate changes might alter extreme events (droughts and floods).
. the relationship of climate alterations and water quality.
. development of methods to better ascertain climate, water, and society.
Allee, David J., Leonard B. Dworsky, and Albert E. Utton (1993). Managing
Transboundary Water Conflicts: The United States and its Boundary Commissions.
AWRA 28th Annual Conference & Symposium, Reno, NV, AWRA. US-Mexico border,
Canada. water supply, legal/policy/political issues.
Allen, L.H., P. Jones, and J.W. Jones (1985). Rising Atmospheric CO2 and
Evapotranspiration. St. Joseph, MI, American Society of Agricultural Engineers: 13-27.
US. CO2 levels, evapotranspiration, agriculture.
Anderson, Jeffry L., S. Shiau, and Danny Harvey (1991). Preliminary Investigation of
Trend/Patterns in Surface Water Characteristics and Climate Variations. NHRI
Workshop, Saskatoon, Canada, National Hydrology Research Institute. unspecified/NA.
hydrology/groundwater/river flows.
Assel, Raymond A. (1988). Impact of Global Warming on Great Lakes Ice Cycles. The
Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States. J. B. Smith, and
Dennis A. Tirpak. Washington, DC, U.S. EPA. EPA-230-05-89-051: 5.1-5.30. Eastern
US, Great Lakes. lake level fluctuation/ice cover.
1
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3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Climate change assessments
Water planning and allocation
Modelling data issues
Soil moisture
Evapotranspiration
Recreation and tourism
Animal ecology/wildlife/fisheries
Economics valuation
Historial climate
Lakes
Snowfall / snowmelts
Hydrology/groundwater/riverflows
Water supply
Legal / policy / political issues
CO2 levels
Agriculture
Irrigation
Weather variations (extremes)
Water use
Lake level fluctuations / ice cover
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
Sea level rise
Land usemanagement
Human health
Floods
Hydropower
Navigation / transportation
Water quality
Desertification / droughts
Plant ecology
Forest
Climate feedbacks
Remote sensing
Water transfer
Water storage / reservoirs
Precipitation
Saline (estuary)
Population and social
Wetlands
Hydrogeological cycle
Water conservation
Urban issues
Research on Climate Change and Water Resources
5.3
3.1
3.6
4.7
3.1
4.5
11.8
72%
3.3
5.1
8.5
4.9
14.0
Climate change assessments
Water planning and allocation
Modelling data issues
Animal ecology/wildlife/fisheries
Snowfall / snowmelts
Hydrology/groundwater/riverflows
Water supply
Legal / policy / political issues
CO2 levels
Agriculture
Lake level fluctuations / ice cover
Precipitation
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
Climate change assessments
Water planning and allocation
Modelling data issues
Soil moisture
Evapotranspiration
Recreation and tourism
Animal ecology/wildlife/fisheries
Economics valuation
Historial climate
Lakes
Snowfall / snowmelts
Hydrology/groundwater/riverflows
Water supply
Legal / policy / political issues
CO2 levels
Agriculture
Irrigation
Weather variations (extremes)
Water use
Lake level fluctuations / ice cover
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
Sea level rise
Land usemanagement
Human health
Floods
Hydropower
Navigation / transportation
Water quality
Desertification / droughts
Plant ecology
Forest
Climate feedbacks
Remote sensing
Water transfer
Water storage / reservoirs
Precipitation
Saline (estuary)
Population and social
Wetlands
Hydrogeological cycle
Water conservation
Urban issues
POLICY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
W ho are the policy makers in water resources?
A variety of levels:
-local
-states and provinces
-national level
-international level.
POLICY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
Needs for Information related to climate change by policy makers:
More frequently asked questions being asked by policy makers:
1- what type of climate change is apt to occur?:
-Will the variability of weather increase?
-Will the mean or modal values of temperature, precipitation or other critical
variables change?
-What conditions will be altered and by how much?
- Will there be more extremes with the normals not changing?
POLICY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
2- Are the changes beyond the stationarity assumptions that hydrologists typically
consider in their current designs?
-Can we prove or reasonably establish that the changes which may occur in the
climate are greater than what has been assumed out of study of the historical
records?
3- Can the presumed future changes be predicted (beginning, continuance and/or end?
-What is the certainty of the situation?
-What are the confidence bands and the probabilities for that the climate
change will occur?
-Credibility of the information from the scientific community:
divergence of opinion between the scientific community leads to
inaction by the policy makers.
POLICY AND CLIMATE CHANGE
4- How serious will the change be?
-Who is affected, the cost, the social disruptions and an environmental impact
what is affected;
-what is the time reaction of the effect?
5- What are the potential solutions?
Scientists should not present problems unless they also help us with their
solutions.
It implies information on potential adjustments:
Country
Agriculture Contribution
% of area) Countries
of agriculture
to economy
% de GDP
Guatemala
(1999)
Water Resources
available per capita
Honduras
Guatemala
41.6
23
m3/cap.
Belize
12.121
Honduras
32.0
16
15.211
Nicaragua
Belice
6.1
19
64.817
Nicaragua
62.3
32
38.668
El Salvador
2.876
El Salvador
77.4
Costa 10
Rica
31.318
Costa Rica
55.7
11
52.437
Panama
31.064
Panamá
28.6
7
BELICE
Country
Guatemala
Honduras
Belize
Nicaragua
El Salvador
Costa Rica
Panama
Central America
GUATEMALA
HONDURAS
EL SALVADOR
Central América
Brasil
32.256
Estados Unidos
8.906
Reino Unido
2.471
Brasil 7.427
Suiza
Sudafrica
1.187
Estados Unidos
Holanda
5.758
Reino Unido
Mexico
4.742
Agriculture
US$
Area(GNI/cap.)
under
irrigation
(%) 1.680
522,000 km2
6.6
3.7
2.730
3.4
410
3.2
1.920
4.4
3.570
25
3.080
30 Millones hab.
NICARAGUA
Central America
4.9
16.8
= C.A.
29 % C.A.
8 % C.A.
9
24 % C.A.
4 % C.A.
<6
18 % C.A.
1
15 % C.A.
7.3
43.4
29.6
45.7
72.5
Suiza
COSTA39.9
RICA
760
2021.4
<6
Sudáfrica
81.6
4
Holanda
58.2
3
México
56.2
5
PANAMA
NOVIEMBRE
a
FEBRERO
EL NIÑO
El fenómeno de El Niño produce una
reducción importante en la lluvia del
Pacífico Centroamericano la cual
puede ocasionar condiciones de sequía
en algunos sitios específicos. A pesar
de esto, El Niño solamente explica un
porcentage de los eventos secos del
Istmo.
Areas propensas a sequía en
Centroamerica.
Ramírez P. , Amenazas
Hidrometeorológicas en Centroamerica..
Informe consultoría IRG.
Resultados del Ier Foro Climático Junio-2001, Tegucigalpa,
Honduras, NOAA-OGP, CRRH/SICA
2010
<1500
<1500
2000-1500
CHANGES IN YEARLY RAINFALL
2100
Rainfall in mm
<800
<800
1500-800
Results from Costa Rica – The Netherlands
Climate change project
Minister for Environment and Energy (MINAE)
National Meteorological Institute (IMN)
CHANGES IN MEAN TEMPERATURE
COSTA RICA
Mean temperature for year 2100
Based on model HADCM2 and
IS-92a scenario.
Actual
Actual mean
mean temperature
temperature
Nat.
Met.
Institute-CR.
Nat. Met. Institute-CR.
30 >T>27.5
T>30 C
27.5>T>25
25>T>22.5
22.5>T>20
Results from Costa Rica – The Netherlands
Climate change project
Minister for Environment and Energy (MINAE)
National Meteorological Institute (IMN)
Rainfall (mm)-average 1971-90
(INETER 2000)
CHANGES IN RAINFALL
NICARAGUA
Rainfall (mm) – year 2100
HADCM2 model and IS92-a
Scenario (MARENA 2000)
Important reductions in precipitation are expected
along the Pacific region of Nicaragua under IS-92-a:
2010………… -8.4%
2030……..… -14.5%
2050……….. -21.0%
2070……….. -27.3%
2100……….. -36.6%
INETER: Instituto Nicaraguense de Estudios Territoriales
MARENA: Ministerio del Ambiente y Recursos Naturales
OBJETIVO:
Comprender la respuesta hidrológica
de
las
principales
cuencas
hidrográficas a diferentes escenarios
de cambio climático.
Criterio de selección: alto potencial
de de generación hidroeléctrico,
importantes fuentes de abastecimiento
de agua para comunidades urbanas y
rurales
PAIS
GUATEMALA
BELIZE
HONDURAS
EL
SALVADOR
CUENCA
Chixoy
AREA (km2)
12,150
Los Esclavos
2,271
Río Belize
6,356
Choluteca
7,580
Humuya
3,979
Sucio
843
PAIS
NICARAGUA
COSTA RICA
PANAMA
CUENCA
AREA (km2)
Viejo
1,406
Grande de
Matagalpa
7,495
Río Grande de
Térraba
5,085
Reventazón
2,953
Río Grande de
Tárcoles
2,174
Chagres
3,338
Chiriquí
1,337
La Villa
1,000
METODOLOGIA:
(Programa de los Estados Unidos para el Cambio Climático (US-CSP) y
Expertos en hidrología y meteorología Centroamericanos (PCCC))
Utilización del modelo CLIRUM 3 (precipitación-escorrentía) para simular
las variaciones en la escorrentía generada por precipitaciones derivadas de
varios escenarios climáticos.
Fases:
Manejo de información hidro-meteorológica básica.
Calibración y validación del modelo CLIRUM 3 (balance hídrico).
Estimación general de la vulnerabilidad de las cuencas seleccionadas ante
cambios de precipitación y temperatura (estimación de la sensibilidad).
Información básica:
Ecurrimiento superficial, temperatura, precipitación y evapotranspiración
potencial.
PANAMA
Porcentajes de cambio entre la escorrentía observada y la simulada por cuenca y entre
la escorrentía del mes más seco y más húmedo del registro.
Cuenca del Río Chagres
Caudal observado
(mm/día)
+2
C
+20% P
+2
C
+10% P
+2
C
-20% P
+2
C
-10% P
4.78
+14%
3.00
-26%
3.57
-13%
Promedio
Anual
4.06
5.41
+28%
Marzo (mes
más seco)
0.67
0.77
+15%
0.72
+7%
0.55
-18%
0.60
-10%
8.3
11.0
+33%
9.79
+18%
6.10
-27%
7.32
-12%
Nov. (mes más
húmedo)
Cuenca del Río Chiriquí
Caudal Obs.
(mm/día)
+2
C
+15% P
+1
C
+10% P
+2
C
-15% P
+1
C
-10 % P
Promedio
Anual
9.57
10.3
+5%
9.89
+2%
7.13
-24%
7.77
-18%
Marzo (mes
más seco)
2.27
2.16
-5%
2.15
-5%
1.84
-19%
1.93
-15%
Oct.(mes más
húmedo)
22.2
23.9
+7%
22.9
+3%
16.7
-25%
18.1
-19%
Cuenca del Río La Villa
Caudal Obs.
(mm/día)
+2
C
+15% P
+1
C
+10% P
+2
C
-15% P
+1
C
-10%
Promedio
Anual
2.71
2.86
+1%
2.81
+1%
1.68
-35%
1.99
-24%
Marzo (mes
más seco)
0.44
0.30
-32%
0.32
-27%
0.27
-39%
0.30
-32%
Oct.(mes más
húmedo)
7.38
7.94
+8%
7.71
+4%
4.38
-41%
5.32
-28%
•
120 cuencas principales-23 cuencas transfronterizas – 10.7% mundo
•
•
40 % del territorio regional ~ 191.500 km2 > cualquier país región
Capitales en cuencas transfronterizas:
• Managua-Cuenca río San Juan-Nicaragua
• Tegucigalpa-Cuenca río Choluteca-Honduras
• San Salvador – Cuenca río Lempa-El Salvador
Magnitud of the impact of
hurricane Mitch
•3.5 million were
affected.
•53% were children
under 5.
• The most affected
sector of population was
the poorest.
•Total amount of damages
• US$ 6,018 M.
Crecimiento anual del PIB %
Effects on regional GNP: -2.5%
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
Central America before Mitch
After the lost decade of the 80’s,
Central American countries were
making important progress in:
 Consolidation of democracy.
 Strengthening the integration process.
 Organizing their economies.
 Intensification of the intra regional commerce.
 More efficient insertion in the international economy.