AP® Human Geography Workshop
Population Dynamics in the Rural
Midwest: Causes and Consequences
Tim Strauss
Department of Geography
University of Northern Iowa
89th Annual Meeting of the
National Council for Geographic Education
Kansas City, Missouri, October 22, 2004
Overview





Introduction
Population Trends
Possible Causes
Consequences/Implications
Conclusion
Introduction:
The “Layers” of Geography
Human and physical geography.
Systematic and regional geography.
Systematic
Culture
Language
Religion
Demographics
Economic systems
Political systems
Topography
Climate
etc., etc., etc.
Regional
Geography can be seen as a complex interaction
of different “layers”
Introduction


World Regional – regional focus and organization
Human Geography – organized by sub-discipline/
layer

Layers often addressed separately


Importance of interaction across layers


Introduction, population, migration, culture, language, religion,
agriculture, urban, political, etc.
Requires integrated analysis, multidisciplinary approach
Today, using population change as an example

Focus on Midwest/Iowa
Population Trends

Population Growth by State in the 1990s
Population Change, 1990-2000
Increase 20% or more
Source: Office of Social and Economic Trend Analysis, Iowa State University
Population Change, 1990-2000
Increase 10% or more
Source: Office of Social and Economic Trend Analysis, Iowa State University
Population Change, 1990-2000
Increase 5% or more
Source: Office of Social and Economic Trend Analysis, Iowa State University
Population Change, 1990-2000
Nationwide + 13.2%
+ 0.5%
+ 8.5%
+ 12.4%
+ 9.6%
+ 6.9%
+ 8.4%
+ 8.5%
+ 5.4%
+ 4.7%
+ 8.6% + 9.7%
+ 9.3%
Source: Office of Social and Economic Trend Analysis, Iowa State University
Population Trends


Population Growth by State in the 1990s
Population Growth by State in the 20th Century
Population Change, 1900-2000
Increase 500% or more
Source: Office of Social and Economic Trend Analysis, Iowa State University
Population Change, 1900-2000
Increase 100% or more
Source: Office of Social and Economic Trend Analysis, Iowa State University
Population Change, 1900-2000
Increase 50% or more
Source: Office of Social and Economic Trend Analysis, Iowa State University
Population Trends



Population Growth by State in the 1990s
Population Growth by State in the 20th Century
Statewide Population Growth in Iowa
Projected Population in Iowa
3.5
Millions
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1900
20
40
60
80
2000
2020
Projections by Woods & Poole Economics, Inc., 2004
Source: Office of Social and Economic Trend Analysis, Iowa State University
Population Trends




Population Growth by State in the 1990s
Population Growth by State in the 20th Century
Statewide Population Growth in Iowa
County-level Changes in Population

metropolitan vs. non-metropolitan trends
Population Change, 1990-2000
One dot = 10 persons
Increased
Decreased
1 dot
= 10 persons
Blue
= Increase
Pink = Decrease
Source: Office of Social and Economic Trend Analysis, Iowa State University

Most counties
experienced their peak
population decades ago

ISU Census Services
metropolitan vs.
non-metropolitan
pattern
The trend is
expected to
continue
Population Trends





Population Growth by State in the 1990s
Population Growth by State in the 20th Century
Statewide Population Growth in Iowa
County-level Changes in Population
Components of Demographic Change


Birth Rates and Death Rates
In- vs. Out-Migration
Births and Deaths
Iowa
Thousands
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1940
1950
1960
Births
1970
1980
1990
2000
Deaths
ISU Census Services
Natural Change, 1990–2000
More births than deaths
More deaths than births
ISU Census Services
http://www.census.gov/prod/2003pubs/censr-9.pdf
Net Migration in Iowa









1910s
1920s
1930s
1940s
1950s
1960s
1970s
1980s
1990s
0
-150,000
-100,000
-180,000
-250,000
-180,000
-60,000
-280,000
+49,000
ISU Census Services
http://www.seta.iastate.edu/population/
publications/migration_inout_iowa_95002.pdf
Migration largely follows
expected patterns
- Gravity model
- nearby states, large states
- South/West vs. East/North
http://www.seta.iastate.edu/population/publications
/ia_inout_migrant_age_charx_9500.pdf
1 dot = 2 persons
1 dot = 2 persons
http://www.seta.iastate.edu/population/publications
/ia_inout_migrant_age_charx_9500.pdf
Possible Causes

Trends in Agriculture
Declining percentage of workforce in farming
 Consolidation - Fewer, larger farms

Iowa Farm Numbers and Size
108000
345.0
106000
340.0
335.0
104000
325.0
100000
320.0
98000
315.0
96000
310.0
94000
305.0
92000
300.0
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
Farms
102000
Year
Acres
330.0
Farms
Acres/Farm
d
Mark Drabenstott 1998 This Little Piggy Went To Market: Will The New
Pork Industry Call the Heartland Home? Economic Review, Federal
Reserve Bank of Kansas City
(http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/econrev/pdf/3q98drab.pdf)
Mark Drabenstott 1998 This Little Piggy Went To Market: Will The New
Pork Industry Call the Heartland Home? Economic Review, Federal
Reserve Bank of Kansas City
(http://www.kc.frb.org/publicat/econrev/pdf/3q98drab.pdf)
Possible Causes


Trends in Agriculture
Migration Preferences
Young adult/student preferences
 Employment opportunities, incomes, cultural
amenities, climate


“Co-location” issue

Metropolitan orientation of college-educated couples
http://www.census.gov/prod/2004pubs/p20-549.pdf
Human Geography class: Number of students selecting each state as their
most preferred (“Y”) or least preferred (“N”) to live in after graduation
Human Geography class: Student responses regarding whether they would like to leave Iowa (=1)
or stay in Iowa (=5) after graduation, by home town of the student
http://www.seta.iastate.edu/population/publications
/ia_in_out_mirrant_ed_attain_charx_9500.pdf
Per Capita Income
Iowa
Thousands
$35
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
1970
1975
1980
U.S
1985
1990
1995
2000
Iowa
ISU Census Services
Per Capita Income, 1998
Iowa =
$24,745
Higher than the state average
Lower than the state average
ISU Census Services
Consequences/Implications

Demographic Profile

Age
Consequences/Implications


Demographic Profile
Retail Trade Patterns
Central Place Theory
Settlement Pattern
- but is the pattern
static?
Actual Settlement
Pattern in Iowa
Southwest Iowa, 1934
Grocery
Stores
Hospitals
Legal Advice
Discussed in Berry 1988 Market Centers and Retail Location: Theory and Applications
Long history of retail trade
studies in Iowa
As expected, more retail sales in more populated counties
- but what if we do per capita comparisons?
Data from the Iowa State Extension Retail Trade Analysis Program
Pull Factor = town (or county) per capita retail sales / state per capita retail sales
http://www.seta.iastate.edu/retail/publications/seta_retail_guide.pdf
Data from the Iowa State Extension Retail Trade Analysis Program
Data from the Iowa State Extension Retail Trade Analysis Program
Data from the Iowa State Extension Retail Trade Analysis Program
Data from the Iowa State Extension Retail Trade Analysis Program
Data from the Iowa State Extension Retail Trade Analysis Program
Iowa County Taxable Retail Sales Per
Capita, FY2003
OSCEOLA
LYON
DICKINSON
EMMET
O'BRIEN
SIOUX
$6,899
CLAY
PALO ALTO
$6,733 $12,009 $5,371
MITCHELL
WINNESHIEK ALLAMAKEE
HOWARD
$6,006 $2,637 $5,051 $5,453
$4,972 $13,885 $8,331
$4,533
WORTH
WINNEBAGO
KOSSUTH
$6,553
HANCOCK CERRO GORDO
FLOYD
$7,088 $6,176
CHICKASAW
$5,587 $12,134 $5,837 $5,690
FAYETTE
BUENA VISTA POCAHONTAS HUMBOLDT
CHEROKEE
PLYMOUTH
WRIGHT
BREMER
FRANKLIN
BUTLER
$6,628 $7,514 $4,112 $6,414 $5,914 $5,017 $3,743 $6,175
$6,048
BLACK HAWK
WEBSTER
SAC
IDA
HARDIN
HAMILTON
CALHOUN
CLAYTON
$5,331 $4,710
DELAWARE
BUCHANAN
DUBUQUE
GRUNDY
$10,942 $5,246 $5,410 $10,739
$11,064 $5,624 $4,896 $3,380 $10,977 $5,445 $7,814 $4,713
JACKSON
WOODBURY
BENTON
TAMA
CRAWFORD
MONONA
GREENE
CARROLL
BOONE
STORY
JONES
MARSHALL
LINN
$7,335 $14,111 $6,155
$5,750 $10,035 $5,891 $6,049 $9,096 $8,806 $5,136
$5,063
CEDAR
HARRISON
SHELBY
AUDUBON
GUTHRIE
JASPER
POLK
DALLAS
POWESHIEK
$6,385 $10,517 $11,440
$3,951 $5,606 $4,422 $4,831 $7,234 $16,050 $8,859
POTTAWATTAMIE
$9,865
MILLS
Sales Per Capita
Less than $5000
$5000 to $7500
$7500 to $9778
More than $9778
CASS
ADAIR
MADISON
WARREN
MARION
JOHNSON
IOWA
MAHASKA
KEOKUK
MONTGOMERY
ADAMS
UNION
CLARKE
LUCAS
MONROE
WAPELLO
JEFFERSON
MUSCATINE
$8,418
WASHINGTON
$7,210 $5,933 $5,087 $4,749 $6,842 $6,796 $2,808 $5,875
$4,431
LOUISA
$2,104
HENRY
DES MOINES
$3,206 $6,194 $5,166 $8,825 $6,102 $4,018 $4,823 $8,458 $9,204$6,265
$10,714
VAN BUREN
APPANOOSE
FREMONT
DAVIS
PAGE
TAYLOR
RINGGOLD
WAYNE
DECATUR
$6,690 $5,026 $3,255 $7,497 $3,337 $3,421 $5,836 $4,616 $2,864
LEE
$7,360
State Sales Per Capita = $9,778
Iowa State Extension Retail Trade Analysis Program
$5,159
CLINTON
$7,726
SCOTT
$12,855
Iowa County Taxable Retail Sales Pull
Factors, FY2003
OSCEOLA
LYON
0.51
0.46
DICKINSON
1.42
O'BRIEN
SIOUX
CLAY
0.85
PALO ALTO
0.55
1.23
0.69
0.71
EMMET
WORTH
KOSSUTH
WINNEBAGO
0.61
0.27
0.67
HANCOCK
CERRO GORDO
0.57
MITCHELL
0.52
1.24
WINNESHIEK ALLAMAKEE
HOWARD
0.56
0.72
FLOYD
CHICKASAW
0.60
0.58
0.63
FAYETTE
CHEROKEE
PLYMOUTH
0.77
0.68
0.62
BUENA VISTA POCAHONTAS HUMBOLDT
WRIGHT
0.66
0.42
0.60
0.51
HAMILTON
HARDIN
IDA
WOODBURY
CALHOUN
0.58 0.50
1.13
0.35 1.12
CLAYTON
BLACK HAWK
BUCHANAN
DELAWARE
DUBUQUE
1.12
0.54
0.55
1.10
0.63
BUTLER
0.38
WEBSTER
SAC
0.55
BREMER
FRANKLIN
GRUNDY
0.80 0.48
0.56
MONONA
CARROLL
GREENE
0.59
1.03
0.60 0.62
0.52
BOONE
MARSHALL
STORY
0.90
0.93
JACKSON
BENTON
TAMA
CRAWFORD
0.48
JONES
0.63
LINN
0.75 1.44
0.53
CLINTON
CEDAR
GUTHRIE
DALLAS
POLK
JASPER
POWESHIEK
IOWA
0.57 0.45 0.49
0.74
1.64
0.91
0.65
1.08
SHELBY
HARRISON
0.40
AUDUBON
JOHNSON
0.45
1.17
MUSCATINE
CASS
POTTAWATTAMIE
Pull Factors
0 to 0.50
0.50 to 1.00
1.00 to 2.00
MADISON
MONTGOMERY
ADAMS
UNION
MARION
WARREN
0.74 0.61 0.52 0.49
1.01
MILLS
ADAIR
CLARKE
MAHASKA
MONROE
0.33 0.63 0.53 0.90 0.62 0.41 0.49
FREMONT
PAGE
TAYLOR
RINGGOLD
DECATUR
WAYNE
0.68 0.51 0.33 0.77 0.34 0.35
Iowa State Extension Retail Trade Analysis Program
KEOKUK
0.70 0.70
LUCAS
0.53
APPANOOSE
0.60
0.29 0.60
WAPELLO
0.86
WASHINGTON
JEFFERSON
LOUISA
HENRY
0.22
0.94 0.64
1.10
0.47 0.29
0.75
0.86
DAVIS
DES MOINES
VAN BUREN
LEE
0.79
SCOTT
1.31
Iowa County Taxable Retail Sales Surplus or
Leakage, FY2003
OSCEOLA
LYON
-$29
-$23
$45
O'BRIEN
SIOUX
CLAY
-$2
WORTH
KOSSUTH
WINNEBAGO
-$17
-$42
-$18
HANCOCK
CERRO GORDO
PALO ALTO
-$27
$42
-$15
-$35
EMMET
DICKINSON
-$33
MITCHELL
WINNESHIEK ALLAMAKEE
HOWARD
-$26 -$35
$81
-$30 -$25
FLOYD
CHICKASAW
-$44
-$46
FAYETTE
CHEROKEE
PLYMOUTH
BUENA VISTA POCAHONTAS HUMBOLDT
-$19 -$25
-$63
WRIGHT
BREMER
FRANKLIN
-$22 -$36 -$35
-$32
-$63 -$75
BUTLER
BLACK HAWK
WEBSTER
SAC
IDA
WOODBURY
CALHOUN
$82
-$18 -$28 -$46
$135
HARDIN
HAMILTON
CRAWFORD
CARROLL
-$29
$33
-$27
GREENE
-$53 -$19 -$70
BOONE
MARSHALL
STORY
-$17 -$87 -$98 -$11
CLAYTON
BUCHANAN
DELAWARE
DUBUQUE
-$45
$93
-$52
$182 -$58
GRUNDY
JACKSON
BENTON
TAMA
MONONA
-$49
JONES
-$53 -$37 $406 -$25
LINN
CLINTON
CEDAR
SHELBY
HARRISON
-$68
AUDUBON
GUTHRIE
JASPER
POLK
DALLAS
-$30 -$19 -$37 -$149 $1,310 -$38
POWESHIEK
IOWA
-$54
-$5
JOHNSON
-$86
-$58
MUSCATINE
CASS
POTTAWATTAMIE
$59
Surplus or Leakage
-$250 million to -$50 million
-$50 million to -$10 million
-$10 million to $0
$0 and above (surplus)
MILLS
-$9
MONTGOMERY
MADISON
ADAIR
MARION
MAHASKA
KEOKUK
ADAMS
-$87 -$24 -$10
FREMONT
RINGGOLD
TAYLOR
-$11 -$46 -$26
$13
Iowa State Extension Retail Trade Analysis Program
$2
CLARKE
LUCAS
MONROE
-$31 -$38 -$27
DECATUR
WAYNE
APPANOOSE
WAPELLO
$20
DAVIS
-$46
WASHINGTON
-$18 -$62 -$212 -$95 -$45 -$46 -$52
UNION
PAGE
WARREN
-$51
JEFFERSON
$3
VAN BUREN
-$22 -$20 -$29 -$16 -$34
LOUISA
-$71
HENRY
-$47 $52
DES MOINES
LEE
-$48
-$57
SCOTT
$425
Iowa County Taxable Retail Sales Surplus or
Leakage as a % of Potential Sales, FY2003
OSCEOLA
LYON
EMMET
DICKINSON
KOSSUTH
WORTH
WINNEBAGO
MITCHELL
WINNESHIEK ALLAMAKEE
HOWARD
-20% -67% -33% -39%
-17% -22%
-14%
-34% 17% -31% -38%
-14% -13% 25% -33%
-46% 24% -2%
-30%
O'BRIEN
SIOUX
CLAY
HANCOCK CERRO GORDO
PALO ALTO
FLOYD
CHICKASAW
FAYETTE
CLAYTON
-30% -38%
-25%
-34%
-30% -39% -53%
-18% -14% -48%
CHEROKEE BUENA VISTA POCAHONTASHUMBOLDT
PLYMOUTH
-30%
WRIGHT
FRANKLIN
BREMER
BUTLER
BLACK HAWK BUCHANAN
WEBSTER
DELAWARE
DUBUQUE
15% -35% -31% 11%
13% -29% -34% -55% 23% -37% -12% -54%
-16% -33%
-16%
-36%
17%
-35% -23% 19% -22% -35% -12% -3%
-13%
-52%
-52% -29% -39% -40% -32% 27% -10% -31% -3% -4%
26%
-12%
7%
-8% -28% -46% -52% -30% -23% -59% -30%
-73%
-65% -26% -30% 14% -36% -50% -42% 7% 2% -27%
13%
-17% -36% -53% 6% -44% -47% -27% -29% -61%
-15%
SAC
IDA
WOODBURY
HARDIN
HAMILTON
CALHOUN
GRUNDY
CRAWFORD
MONONA
GREENE
CARROLL
BOONE
JACKSON
BENTON
TAMA
JONES
MARSHALL
STORY
LINN
CLINTON
CEDAR
HARRISON
SHELBY
AUDUBON
GUTHRIE
JASPER
POLK
DALLAS
POWESHIEK
IOWA
JOHNSON
SCOTT
MUSCATINE
POTTAWATTAMIE
CASS
ADAIR
MADISON
WARREN
MARION
MAHASKA
KEOKUK
WASHINGTON
LOUISA
MILLS
MONTGOMERY ADAMS
UNION
CLARKE
LUCAS
MONROE
WAPELLO
JEFFERSON
HENRY
DES MOINES
Surplus or Leakage, %
-80% to -40%
-40$ to -20%
-20% to 0%
0% and above
FREMONT
PAGE
TAYLOR
RINGGOLD
DECATUR
WAYNE
APPANOOSE
DAVIS
VAN BUREN
LEE
Iowa State Extension Retail Trade Analysis Program
Consequences/Implications



Demographic Profile
Retail Trade Patterns
School Consolidation
Certified and Projected
K-12 Enrollment*, Iowa
600
Thousands
500
400
300
200
100
0
1995
1997
1999 2000
Certified
* Includes only public schools
2002
2004
Projected
ISU Census Services
School Consolidation

Decline in number of school districts





Early 1900s: 12,000 (schoolhouses)
By 1932: 4,875
By 1996: 501
Now: 367
Proposal to merge districts with a high school having
<200 students


147 such districts in Iowa
Concerns about access to advanced math, science, and other
classes
Waterloo/Cedar Falls Courier, 10/2/04 (www.wcfcourier.com)
Quad-City Times (www.qctimes.com)
Change in Population 17 Years
of Age or Younger, 1990–2000
Increase
Decrease
ISU Census Services
Consequences/Implications




Demographic Profile
Retail Trade Patterns
School Consolidation
Political Balance

Effect on urban/rural issues in state-level politics
National-level shifts in
the political balance
State-level shifts in the
political balance:
Iowa Senate
State-level shifts in the
political balance:
Iowa House
Consequences/Implications





Demographic Profile
Retail Trade Patterns
School Consolidation
Political Balance
County Consolidation
County Consolidation

County boundaries same since 1871


Designed for one-day round trip from farm to
courthouse
Brookings Institution recommended county
consolidation

Suggested 25 instead of 99 counties
Des Moines Register, 3/21/1999 (www.dmregister.com)
1900: Polk County population (82,624) exceeds that of 7 smallest counties (74,977)
Data from the Des Moines Register, 3/21/1999 (www.dmregister.com)
1930: Polk County population (172,837) exceeds that of 14 smallest counties (163,721)
Data from the Des Moines Register, 3/21/1999 (www.dmregister.com)
1998: Polk County population (359,826) exceeds that of 37 smallest counties (354,519)
Data from the Des Moines Register, 3/21/1999 (www.dmregister.com)
County Consolidation



Brookings Institution study was done in 1933
Since then, 64 counties have lost population, 35
have gained
Consolidation is not a popular idea
Community identity and vitality
 Political balance

Des Moines Register, 3/21/1999 (www.dmregister.com)
Consequences/Implications






Demographic Profile
Retail Trade Patterns
School Consolidation
Political Balance
County Consolidation
Patterns of Religious Affiliation
Iowa is more Methodist, more Lutheran,
less Catholic, and less Baptist than the US as a whole.
- Iowa is normally split between Lutheran and Methodist regions
on maps of US religious affiliation
Data and Graph:
James F. Fryman
UNI Geography Dept.

Denominational
group by metropolitan
vs. non-metropolitan
location

e.g., historically,
Methodists more rural
than US population as
a whole
Zelinsky, Wilbur 1961, An Approach to the Religious Geography of the
United States: Patterns of Church Membership in 1952, Annals of the AAG.
Generally, growth in numbers of churches
in metropolitan areas, declines in rural areas
Data and Map:
James F. Fryman
UNI Geography Dept.
Methodists have a largely rural
spatial distribution in Iowa
American Religion Data Archive (www.thearda.com)
Roman Catholics: increase in affiliation, 1950-1990
- Effect of metro vs. non-metro and regional (e.g., NE Iowa) orientation?
- Effect of in-migration?
Methodists: decline in affiliation, 1950-1990
- Effect of rural orientation? What processes are involved?
Data and Graph:
James F. Fryman
UNI Geography Dept.
Conclusions


The above trends cannot be considered in isolation
from each other
Relevance to APHG curriculum






Links across sections of the course outline
Cause-and-effect relationships
Synthesis
Process-oriented analysis
Changes in patterns over time
Scale