The Impact of Gender Role Attitudes on Women's Fertility Choices and Labour Market Outcomes Across OECD Countries By Nicole M. Fortin Department of Economics University of British Columbia September 2006 CIAR - Social Interactions, Identity and Well-Being Stylized Facts of Interest After two decades on spectacular gains, in many OECD countries, progress in the gender earnings gap has more or less stalled in Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, the United States and Sweden since the mid 1990s there are also been a stabilization in female labour force participation in Canada, Finland, Norway, Sweden, the United States and the United Kingdom. 2 In Fortin and Schirle (2006), we find a gender earnings ratio in Canada around 78% since 1992 More recent data from the LFS 2004 shows that the ratio was still at 80% 0.8 Hourly Wage 0.75 Age 25-54 0.7 Age 16-64 0.65 Annual Earnings Age 25-54 Age 16-64 0.6 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 Figure 1. Female/Male Median Earnings Ratio in Canada Source: Fortin and Schirle (2006) – SCF data 1997 3 In Fortin and Schirle (2006), we find that female labour force participation has stabilized since the early 1990s 0.95 male age 25-54 0.85 male age 16-64 0.75 female age 25-54 0.65 female age 16-64 0.55 0.45 0.35 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Figure 2. Male and Female Labour Force Participation by Age Group in Canada Source: Fortin and Schirle (2006) – SCF data 4 ■ Bernstein (EPI, 2005) presents a similar view of the US gender pay ratio. 5 Motivation The fact that this stabilization has occurred in many different countries under different economic conditions makes one suspicious that more than the usual economic factors may be at play. Indeed, Blau and Kahn (2004) who study the slowing gender wage convergence in the United States attribute the slowdown to factors that contributed to changes in the unexplained gender gap The popular press (Belkin, 2003; Wallis, 2004; Story, 2005) has suggested the notion that women are increasingly “opting out” of employment when they have children. 6 Motivation Sociologists (Cotter, Hermsen and Vanneman, 2006) wonder whether we are witnessing “The End of the Gender Revolution” There is, of course, the possibility that we have simply exhausted the labour market effects of the “Pill” revolution Goldin (2004), Goldin and Katz (2002) and Bailey (2006) have provided compelling evidence that changes in labour market outcomes of cohorts born from late 1940s on are due to innovation in contraception 7 Changes in Labour Force Participation by Birth-Cohort Source: Bailey (2006) for the United States 8 Changes in Labour Force Participation by Birth-Cohort Source: Schirle (2006) 9 Hypotheses If indeed it actually exists, the “opting-out” phenomena would be affecting the 1975-1980 birth cohorts Interestingly, this phenomena could also be characterized in terms of an identity conflict. The “Pill” revolution may have allowed women to embrace men’s identity as breadwinners But women may be uneasy about renouncing their traditional identity as mothers and homemakers This identity conflict is sometimes referred to as the “working mother’s guilt” 10 Hypotheses This is a situation where the women’s own well-being is challenged An alternative explanation offered by the proponents of the “opting out” hypothesis is that mothers are choosing to stay at home in greater numbers due to the stresses of living in two-earner families or making it in the labor market. In this situation, the women’s choices can be made for the family’s well-being Booth and van Ours (2005) investigates the impact of working part-time on women’s life satisfaction and of their partners 11 Objective of the paper As a first step towards testing the hypothesized role of conflicting identities and of a return to traditional gender roles as factors contributing to the slowdown of the economic progress of women, this paper evaluates the impact of gender role attitudes and work values on women’s labour market outcomes and fertility choices across OECD countries, comparing individual outcomes with country-specific ones. 12 Objective of the paper More specifically, the empirical analysis focuses on the impact of attitudes towards gender roles, attitudes towards competition, and different aspects of work, on, at the individual level, women’s employment decisions and part-status among working women. on, at the country level, women’s employment rates total fertility rates gender pay gap. 13 Objective of the paper: Theoretical Perspectives The analysis considers the effects of whether both men and women agree with the traditional gender roles, following Becker’s (1985) model of the household division of labor the identity conflict faced by working mothers, following Akerlof and Kranton (2000) model of identity attitudes towards competition, following Becker’s (1971) model of employer discrimination gender differences in work values and involvement in altruistic volunteering, extending Beckers’ model of limited to include altruistic amenities (Fortin, 2005). social norms (average attitudes by country), following Akerlof’s (1980) model 14 Preview of the findings Perceptions of men as the main breadwinners are found to display the strongest negative association with female employment rates and the gender pay gap. However, these views are softening among recent cohorts. Perceptions of women’s role as homemakers are more persistent over time. They could be implicated in the recent slowdown of the gender convergence in pay. Finally, the unavoidable clash between family values and equalitarian views, that takes the form of an identity conflict for many women─ the so-called mother’s guilt─, is another obstacle in the path towards greater gender equality in the labour market. 15 Data The paper uses three waves of the World Value Surveys (WVS): the 1990-93 and 1995-97 waves (ICPSR 2970), and 1999-2001 wave (ICPSR 3975), which also includes answers to the European Value Survey (EVS). The coverage of societies/countries in the Values Studies has grown from 43 in the 1990 wave to 62 in the 1995 wave and 82 in the 2000 wave. Because of the difficulty of finding comparable measures of the gender pay gap across countries, I limit my analysis to 24-26 OECD societies/countries. 16 WORLD VALUE SURVEYS: Questions on Gender Role Attitudes Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? 1990- 19991997 2001 V128 V78 When jobs are scarce, men should have more right to a job than women V129 When jobs are scarce, people should be forced to retire early V130 V79 When jobs are scarce, employers should give priority to [BRITISH] people over immigrants Agree Neither Disagree DK 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 For each of the following statements I read out, can you tell me how much you agree with each. Do you agree strongly, agree, disagree, or disagree strongly? 1990- 1999Agree Agree Disagree Strongly 1997 2001 strongly disagree V113 One of my main goals in life has been to 1 2 3 4 make my parents proud V114 I make a lot of effort to live up to what my 1 2 3 4 friends expect V98 V115 A working mother can establish just as 1 2 3 4 warm and secure a relationship with her children as a mother who does not work V99 V116 Being a housewife is just as 1 2 3 4 fulfilling as working for pay V100 V117 Both the husband and wife should 1 2 3 4 contribute to household income V101 V118 On the whole, men make better political 1 2 3 4 leaders than women do V103 V119 A university education is more important 1 2 3 4 for a boy than for a girl DK 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 17 WORLD VALUE SURVEYS: Questions on Work Values Here are some more aspects of a job that people say are important. Please look at them and tell me which ones you personally think are important in a job? (CODE ALL MENTIONED) 19901999NOT 1997 2001 MENTIONED MENTIONED V86 Good pay 1 2 V75 V87 Not too much pressure 1 2 V76 V88 Good job security 1 2 V77 V89 A job respected by people in general 1 2 V78 V90 Good hours 1 2 V79 V91 An opportunity to use initiative 1 2 V80 V92 Generous holidays 1 2 V81 V93 A job in which you feel you can achieve something 1 2 V82 V94 A responsible job 1 2 V83 V95 A job that is interesting 1 2 V84 V96 A job that meets one's abilities 1 2 V85 EVS C024 A useful job to society 1 2 C025 Meeting people 1 2 V128 1990-97 V144 1999-2001 Competition is good. It stimulates people to work hard and develop new ideas 1 2 3 4 DK=99 Competition is harmful. It brings out the worst in people 5 6 7 8 9 10 18 WORLD VALUE SURVEYS: Questions on Volunteering Please look carefully at the following list of voluntary organizations and activities and say... A) which, if any, do you belong to? (Code all `yes' answers as 1, if not mentioned code as 2) B) And for which, if any, are you currently doing unpaid voluntary work? [Code all `yes' answers as 1; if not mentioned code as 2] 199019991997 2001 Phil V35 V54 Social welfare services for elderly, handicapped or deprived people Pers V28 V55 Religious or church organizations Pers V30 V56 Education, arts, music or cultural activities Lead V31 V57 Labor unions Lead V32 V58 Political parties or groups Phil V35 V59 Local community action on issues like poverty, employment, housing, racial equality Phil V35 V60 Third world development or human rights Phil V33 V61 Conservation, environmental, animal rights groups Lead V34 V62 Professional associations Phil V36 V63 Youth work (scouts, guides, youth clubs, etc.) Lead V29 V64 Sports or recreation Phil V36 V65 Women’s groups Phil V36 V66 Peace movement Phil V36 V67 Voluntary organizations concerned with health Do voluntary Not work Mentioned 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 19 Countries selected They include the following countries, classified according to the gender-sensitive typology of countries proposed by Siaroff (1994): Protestant social democratic states: Sweden, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Denmark. Protestant liberal states: Australia, Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States, with minimal family welfare but a relatively egalitarian labour market Advanced Christian democratic states: Austria, Belgium, France, Italy, Germany and the Netherlands Late female mobilization states: Greece, Ireland, Japan, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland and Turkey, although Japan and Turkey are actually singletons. Transition from communist regimes: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia. 20 Gender pay ratio and total fertility rates Data on the gender pay gap and total fertility rates for these countries for periods corresponding roughly to the ones of the WVS were available from secondary sources, the OECD and Eurostat among others. In view of important problems in finding figures for the raw gender pay ratio that are comparable across countries, I paid close attention to the methodologies used and supplemented data from reporting agencies with those from individual researchers. As in other studies, there are substantial limits to comparability across countries. 21 Table A1. Women’s Employment Rates and Gender Earnings Ratio by Country WVS Country Acronym Country No. 17 42 7 12 33 6 23 1 87 16 21 9 4 13 5 18 25 41 85 8 19 26 44 11 2 3 Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Japan Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Slovakia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United States United Kingdom West Germany Unweighted Average AS AT BE CA CZ DK FI FR GR HU IS IE IT JP NL NO PL PT SK ES SE CH TK US UK DEW Women’s Employment Gender Earnings Rates (18-64 year olds) Ratio 19901993 ─ 57.3 49.2 65.7 90.4 79.6 82.2 53.9 ─ 78.2 74.8 49.8 51.6 57.7 53.1 84.0 78.7 67.8 95.6 37.5 87.9 55.9 18.7 71.9 70.1 61.7 WVS 19951997 69.8 ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ 64.0 ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ ─ 65.8 ─ 86.8 45.0 ─ ─ 35.0 84.6 69.9 25.7 68.1 ─ 66.6 19992001 ─ 73.9 60.1 69.8 78.7 86.7 75.1 61.8 71.4 65.8 79.9 57.6 62.3 60.4 69.6 ─ ─ 57.6 77.6 44.5 87.0 ─ 17.2 75.4 66.3 ─ OECD 2000 (25-54) 66.8 73.5 67.8 74.0 73.7 80.5 77.6 69.6 52.6 61.7 87.4 53.1 50.7 62.7 70.9 81.5 72.0 73.9 64.8 50.6 81.7 76.8 ─ 74.1 73.1 71.1 65.6 61.1 69.8 66.6 Secondary Sources 1990- 1995- 19991993 1997 2001 0.80 0.83 0.84 0.68 0.79 0.80 0.75 0.89 0.88 0.69 0.74 0.74 0.73 0.77 0.78 0.83 0.86 0.86 0.75 0.83 0.82 0.75 0.81 0.88 0.79 0.79 0.80 0.81 0.79 0.79 0.87 0.84 0.84 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.83 0.82 0.85 0.56 0.59 0.64 0.72 0.78 0.79 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.82 0.78 0.85 0.71 0.74 0.74 0.66 0.78 0.79 0.72 0.79 0.86 0.78 0.83 0.83 0.69 0.70 0.78 0.60 0.65 0.78 0.73 0.76 0.78 0.69 0.72 0.75 0.71 0.77 0.80 0.74 0.78 0.81 22 Table A1 (continued). Total Fertility Rates by Country WVS Country No. 17 42 7 12 33 6 23 1 87 16 21 9 4 13 5 18 25 41 85 8 19 26 44 11 2 3 Country Acronym Total Fertility Rate (OECD Social Indicators) 1990 1995 2000 Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Japan Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Slovakia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United States United Kingdom West Germany Unweighted Average AS AT BE CA CZ DK FI FR GR HU IS IE IT JP NL NO PL PT SK ES SE CH TK US UK DEW 1.91 1.45 1.62 1.71 1.89 1.67 1.78 1.78 1.39 1.84 2.3 2.11 1.33 1.54 1.62 1.93 2.04 1.57 2.09 1.36 2.13 1.59 2.93 2.08 1.8 1.45 1.85 1.4 1.55 1.62 1.28 1.8 1.81 1.7 1.32 1.57 2.08 1.83 1.18 1.42 1.53 1.87 1.61 1.4 1.52 1.18 1.73 1.48 2.62 2.02 1.7 1.25 1.75 1.34 1.66 1.53 1.14 1.77 1.73 1.88 1.29 1.32 2.08 1.89 1.23 1.36 1.72 1.85 1.34 1.55 1.29 1.24 1.54 1.5 2.57 2.06 1.65 1.38 1.80 1.63 1.60 23 Descriptive Statistics Table 1. Average Gender Role Attitudes and Work Values Across Birth Cohorts Birth Cohort: <1935 Gender Role Attitudes: Scarce jobs should 0.36 go to men first Working mom warm with kids 0.66 Being a housewife fulfilling 0.69 Both should 0.79 contribute income¹ 19361945 Women 1946 1956 -1955 -1965 >1965 <1935 19361945 Men 1946 -1955 1956 -1965 >1965 0.32 0.23 0.20 0.15 0.38 0.32 0.26 0.23 0.21 0.75 0.80 0.79 0.80 0.59 0.67 0.71 0.71 0.73 0.65 0.58 0.58 0.57 0.72 0.67 0.63 0.61 0.63 0.80 0.81 0.77 0.82 0.82 0.75 0.76 0.74 0.78 Important Aspects of Job: 0.63 Good pay 0.68 0.73 0.75 0.79 0.71 0.73 0.78 0.80 0.83 0.47 0.49 0.53 0.57 0.59 0.44 0.42 0.46 0.49 0.54 Useful job to society² 0.57 0.46 0.44 0.40 0.40 0.28 0.39 0.42 0.37 0.38 Meeting people² 0.61 0.53 0.50 0.52 0.56 0.62 0.41 0.44 0.47 0.48 Competition OK 0.63 0.62 0.61 0.61 0.60 0.67 0.65 0.65 0.64 0.64 Number of children Actual 2.91 2.60 2.30 2.00 1.11 2.77 2.48 2.25 1.86 0.76 Ideal 2.76 2.63 2.54 2.49 2.39 2.67 2.55 2.51 2.44 2.42 Good hours 24 Empirical Strategy: The issue of causality A difficult question is the issue of causality. Despite efforts to address this issue, many of the results below should be more precisely referred to as partial correlations, rather than causal factors. Were the women’s attitudes formed before their employment decisions, in their youth for example, or are these attitudes subsequent rationalizations to their previous labour market choices? Do individual preferences dictate labour market choices or are individual choices are conditioned by country-specific social norms? 25 Empirical Strategy: The issue of causality Remedies: Ex-post rationalization Secondary evidence from panel survey data (Thornton, Alwin and Camburn, 1983; Kiecolt and Acok, 1988; Burt and Scott, 2002) claims that traditional gender role attitudes are linked to religious beliefs and developed in youth. I also consider a sample of immigrant women; the effects of attitudes formed early in life in a sample of immigrant women will likely be different from those estimated from a sample of natives. 26 Empirical Strategy: The issue of causality Remedies: Impact of social norms Male country-specific average attitudes are used to capture societal influences. Country-fixed effects capture country-specific other country-specific variables arising from institutional differences. Robust standard errors clustered by country are used to adjust for differences in the variance of individual heterogeneity by country. The regressions are also estimated on a sample of men to assess, as in Fernandez and Fogli (2005), whether the attitudes are not capturing some other economic factors, such as persistent unemployment. 27 Empirical Strategy: Individual-level Regressions Let Yict denote the labour market outcome of woman i in country c at time t , here employment and part-time work status. Assuming linear preferences, the individual estimating equation takes the form Yict 0 G Gict J J ict I I ict V Vict X X ict m Gmct C C T T ict , where Gict are the gender roles attitudes, J ict work values, I ict inner conflict variables, Vict volunteering activities, X ict are individual characteristics such as education, age, marital status, etc. and where G mct are the average men’s gender role attitudes by country at time t, C and T are countries and time dummies. 28 Empirical Strategy: The issue of causality At the country-level, reverse causality is the problematic issue. Are women’s employment rates lower in some countries because “the man as main breadwinner” is the norm and “scare jobs are given to men first,” or have women’s low employment rates in some countries resulted in men being the sole provider for most families and thus getting priority for jobs? 29 Empirical Strategy: The issue of causality Remedies: reverse causality use lagged attitudes include a measure of child care support used by Jaunotte (2003) (country fixed-effects saturates the model.) use country-specific average male attitudes, which are less likely suffer from endogeneity problems. 30 Empirical Strategy: Country-level Regressions The analysis seeks to explain whether country differences in women’s employment rates and fertility rates can be accounted for by social norms, measured by country-specific average gender role attitudes and work values: Yct 0 G Gct J J ict vVict F Fc t ict , where Fc denote some country-specific family policy, and t is a time trend. I also explore the impact of gender role attitudes and work values on the gender pay gap by country. Because the gender pay gap is a measure of the difference between the average wages of men and women, the explanatory variables, in the spirit of the Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition, are also measured as gender differences: Yct 0 G Gct J J ct X X ct t t Gt Gct t ict , where the operator denotes differences between male and female country averages, t denotes a time trend, and where the interaction parameter Gt captures the time effect of changes in gender role attitudes. 31 Table 2. Determinants of Employment Status: Marginal Effects from a Probit Model (1) (2) Sample: (3) Women Gender role attitudes: Scarce jobs should go To men first Working mom warm with kids Being a housewife Fulfilling Both spouses should contribute income Important in a job: Good pay Good hours Volunteer in organizations with leader building skills philanthropic religious and cultural No (6) Men -0.049 (-2.65) 0.129 (7.49) -0.078 (-5.82) 0.103 (6.08) -0.075 (-7.49) 0.138 (10.08) -0.088 (-10.39) -0.222 (-4.57) 0.129 (6.52) -0.141 (-2.41) -0.007 (-0.95) 0.129 (1.02) -0.004 (-0.70) 0.029 (1.35) 0.022 (1.66) 0.005 (0.55) 0.005 (0.51) 0.048 (0.50) -0.060 (-0.86) 0.036 (1.62) 0.011 (0.93) 0.026 (1.21) 0.022 (1.39) -0.002 (-0.14) -0.037 (-2.63) 0.023 (1.71) 0.032 (1.12) 0.041 (2.89) 0.032 (1.10) 0.032 (2.81) 0.125 (11.56) -0.047 (-1.46) 0.005 (0.32) 0.077 (3.67) -0.047 (-1.95) -0.020 (-0.90) 0.127 (12.51) -0.016 (-1.04) 0.001 (0.01) 0.274 (3.34) -0.025 (-0.42) -0.025 (-0.46) 0.040 (5.53) -0.039 (-1.29) 0.018 (2.53) No No Yes No No Meeting people Competition is OK (5) Immigrant Women -0.068 (-5.82) 0.147 (7.58) -0.084 (-5.92) Useful to society Men’s average gender role attitudes (4) Chi-2 667.37 3477.8 713.06 7809.2 481.78 914.38 No. obs 24433 24433 6453 23286 362 21079 No. countries 26 26 15 26 8 26 Notes: The independent variable is a binary variable equal to 1 if the individual is employed and 0 otherwise. Age, education, marital status, time and country dummies included in all regressions. Z-values from robust clustering by country in parentheses. 32 Empirical Results: individual employment status The absence of mother’s guilt is the dominant explanatory gender role attitude The magnitude of the positive effect on employment status is comparable to upper secondary education, or half of tertiary education Men as breadwinner and women as homemakers have significant negative effects Leadership skills (from volunteering question) have also strong positive effects, especially for immigrant women 33 Table 3. Determinants of Incidence of PartTime Work among Employees: Marginal Effects from a Probit Model (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Men 0.015 (0.89) -0.028 (-2.36) 0.033 (3.26) -0.014 (-0.49) -0.028 (-1.45) 0.012 (1.32) -0.051 (-3.15) 0.019 (1.11) -0.027 (-2.59) 0.034 (3.79) -0.001 (-0.29) -0.007 (2.09) -0.003 (-1.26) -0.034 (-3.53) 0.050 (5.26) -0.033 (-3.29) 0.052 (5.31) -0.009 (-2.34) 0.010 (2.32) -0.054 (-3.55) -0.027 (-1.35) 0.048 (3.16) -0.016 (-1.38) -0.006 -0.057 (-1.43) -0.055 (-3.53) -0.054 (-1.38) -0.026 (-2.72) 0.014 (1.62) 0.063 (4.90) 0.001 (0.06) 0.028 (1.41) 0.046 (1.38) -0.028 (-2.80) 0.022 (2.65) 0.065 (5.02) -0.010 (-2.39) 0.002 (0.54) 0.015 (2.05) No No Yes No Sample: Women Gender role attitudes: Scarce jobs should go to men first Working mom warm with kids Being a housewife fulfilling Both spouses should contribute income Important in a job: Good pay Good hours Useful to society Meeting people Competition is OK Volunteer in organizations with leader building skills philanthropic religious and cultural Men’s average gender role attitudes No Chi-2 1104.11 477.14 174.26 822.5 3938.23 No. obs 15028 15028 4469 14756 18221 No. countries 26 26 15 26 26 Notes: Age, education, marital status, time and country dummies included in all regressions. Z-values in parentheses are from robust clustering by country. 34 Empirical Results: Part-time work status The value or attitude with greatest statistical significance is “importance of good hours in a job” (positive effect) Followed by “religious volunteering” (positive effect) “competition OK” (negative effect) “housewife fulfilling” (positive effect) “importance of good pay” (negative effect) 35 .75 .5 1 SK DE CZ SEDK SE NO SE NO FI IS DK CZ HU SK FI IS US AT GR US UK NLCA ASCH PL US DEW UK CADE HU JP PT FI DEW FRBE IT JP JP IE PT AT CH FR NL IT IE BE PL ES Women's Employment Rate Women's Employment Rate 1 PL ES ES TK .25 TK TK 0 SK CZ .75 NL JP BE FR JP .5 IS IS ES ES TK .25 TK TK 0 .1 .3 .5 .6 .7 a) Scarce Jobs Should Go to Men 1 DE 1 SK CZ SE DK FINO NO SE DK SE IS SK HUCZ IS GR UK AS US NL PL DEWPT UK HU CA IT DEW BEFR PT AT FR IT NL IE BE PL ES .75 DE .5 FIUS CA US FI JP JP JP ES ES TK .25 TK .8 b) Competition OK TK 0 Women's Employment Rate Women's Employment Rate DE SE SE DK SE FI NO DK PL SK HU CZ US FI AT US GR UK PL CA CH AS US PT UK DEW FI HUDE DEW CA IT JP PT IE AT FR NLIT IE BE PL ES NO .75 .5 SK CZ DE DK NO FI IS DK PL CZ HU SK FI IS AT US GRNLCA UKPL PTHU UK JP CA IT FR DEW FI JP BE JP PT IE AT CH FR IT NL IE BE PL ES SE ES .25 SE SE NO US DE CH DEW US AS ES TK TK TK 0 .3 .5 .7 c) Being a Housewife Fulfilling .9 .1 .3 .5 d) Volunteer in Leadership Org. Figure 1 - Women's Employment Rate Across Countries 36 Table 4a. Determinants of Women’s Employment Rates Across Countries (1) Averages by country Gender role attitudes: Scarce jobs should go to men first Being a housewife fulfilling Competition is OK Volunteer in organizations with leader building skills l religious and cultural Log of public expenditures on child care1 Time trend Adjusted-R square No. observations No. countries (2) (3) Women’s (4) (5) (6) Men’s Women’s -0.764 (-4.17) -0.109 (-1.08) 0.493 (1.79) -0.546 (-3.25) -0.232 (-2.07) 0.893 (2.74) -0.498 (-2.41) -0.042 (-0.26) 0.471 (1.98) Women’s Lagged2 -0.909 (-5.86) -0.204 (-1.26) 0.304 (0.74) 0.371 (1.85) -0.359 (-1.55) 0.195 (1.35) -0.347 (-1.41) 0.347 (2.03) -0.320 (-1.60) 0.047 (2.38) 0.000 (0.00) 0.054 (0.21) -0.261 (-1.26) 0.791 42 21 0.830 21 16 -0.002 (-0.40) -0.006 (-1.58) 0.000 (-0.09) 0.115 (7.50) 0.004 (1.22) 0.221 50 26 0.674 50 26 0.652 50 26 0.675 42 21 0.007 (0.84) Notes: Women’s education level are included in all regressions. The women’s employment rates by country are reported in Table A1. T-values in parentheses are from robust clustering by country. 37 Empirical Results: Women’s employment rates across Countries Traditional gender role attitudes are negatively correlated with women’s employment rates. “Scarce jobs should to the men first” is the only robustly significant explanatory gender role attitude (negative) It is stronger using lagged values Men’s attitudes still very significant Finding is similar to the finding of Azmat, Güell and Manning (2004) regarding gender differences in unemployment rates. Men’s “competition is OK” has a strong positive and significant effect, but only contemporaneously 38 Empirical Results: Women’s employment rates across countries The effect of log expenditures on child care is cut by half when attitudes are included, This supports Algan and Cahuc (2004)’s claim that the effect of policy variables may be over-estimated when values given rise to them are not controlled for 39 Empirical Results: Fertility rates across countries Starting in the 1960s the massive entry of women in the labour market was coupled with a fall in fertility rates, which seems to have bottomed out in some high FLP countries. The cross-sectional relationship between total fertility rates and women’s employment rates was negative in the 1970s and up to the early 1980s, but became positive in the late 1980s (Ahn and Mira, 2002). The emergence of high and persistent unemployment rates has been suggested as an explanation for the reversal in the relationship (Adsera, 2005). In the presence of high unemployment and unstable contracts, women postpone childbearing to increase lifetime income through early skill acquisition and minimize unemployment risk. 40 Total Fertility Rates across Countries 1995 2.5 1990 IS 1.5 2 IE US UK FR CA BE NL PT JP AT DEW IT ES SE NO HUFI DK US FI AS NO SE JP DEW 1 ES Total 2.5 1999 IS 2 1.5 DK SE ES ES USUSUS IS FR FI AS UK FR NL CA BE UK BE NL PT PT JP CA AT DEW JP JP IT HU PL GR SK ES IT DEW CZ 1 ES FR FI BE UKNL PT CA JP HUPL GR SK IT CZ SE NONO HU DK FI DKFISE SE IE US IS .4 .6 .8 1 .4 .6 .8 1 Women's Employment Rates Total Fertility Rates Fitted values Graphs by year 41 (5) 0.680 (2.36) (6) 0.666 (2.26) Men's Women’s Men's -1.188 (-3.04) 0.791 (3.04) -1.149 (-3.29) 0.777 (2.46) -0.569 (-1.38) 0.877 (3.81) -0.684 (-1.88) 0.860 (3.02) Women’s Education (primary omitted) Secondary 0.384 0.220 (1.35) (0.77) Upper secondary -0.367 -0.754 (-1.12) (-2.25) Tertiary 1.097 0.600 (3.48) (2.16) Time -0.014 -0.020 (-1.67) (-2.32) 0.284 (0.93) -0.716 (-1.97) 0.579 (1.79) -0.022 (-2.79) 0.245 (0.99) -0.576 (-2.14) 0.792 (2.71) -0.015 (-2.23) 0.109 (0.48) -0.979 -(4.55) 0.544 (2.24) -0.014 (-1.98) 0.164 (0.71) -0.960 -(4.14) 0.506 (1.93) -0.018 -(2.67) Adjusted-R square No. observations No. countries 0.545 46 24 0.482 46 24 0.626 46 24 0.593 46 24 (1) Table 4b. Determinants of Total Fertility Rates Across Countries (2) (3) Women’s Women's Employment Rates Averages by country Gender role attitudes: Scarce jobs should go to men first Being a housewife fulfilling 0.374 46 24 0.568 46 24 (4) 0.827 (3.29) Notes: The women’s total fertility rates by country are reported in Table A1. T-values in parentheses are from robust clustering by country. 42 Empirical Results: Fertility rates across countries When gender role attitudes are included as explanatory variables, fertility rates are shown to depend on employment rates rather than the opposite “being a housewife fulfilling” has a significant positive impact on fertility This effect is similar when Women’s attitudes are included (identity story) Men’s attitudes are included (social norms story) Combined with the positive effect of women’s employment rates on fertility indicates that “balancing work and family” is a central concern in fertility decisions. 43 .5 .5 TK .4 JP TK AT UK CA CH DEW NL ES CA US UK BE DEW TK ES NL GR .3 PT .2 JP JP FIFR US PL SEUS CZ HU IE SK AT IE FI PL SE DK FISE IT IS PL NO DK ESIT NO BE FR Gender Pay Gap Gender Pay Gap JP CH JP .4 CH DEW ES NL US CA PT BE FI FR US DEW US CZ PL ESSE NL IE HU IE AT PL FI SE IT SE FI IS IT ES NO PL DK NO IS FR BE .2 IS 0 .1 .2 .3 -.05 a) Higher Education Gap UK SK TK GR 0 .05 .1 .15 b) Gap: Scarce Jobs Should Go to Men .5 .5 JP TK .4 JP JP UK CA JP TK AT DEW ES NL US CA PT UK FR FI BE US DEW US SE TK ES CZ PL NL HU SK IE FI SE IT DK SE FI IS NO IT DK ES NO IS FR BE .2 GR Gender Pay Gap Gender Pay Gap TK AT .1 -.1 .3 CH UK CA .3 DK .1 TK JP JP .4 TK JP TK UK .3 PT .2 AT SE PL .1 PL AT CA CH DEW NL US CA UK FI BE FR US US DEW SECZ ESTK NL SK HU IE IE GR IT FI DK SE FI IS IT NO ES DK NO IS FR BE ES PL .1 -.05 0 .05 .1 .15 c) Gap: Being a Housewife Fulfilling -.15 -.1 -.05 0 .05 d) Gap: Good Hours Figure 2 - Gender Pay Gap Across Countries 44 Table 5. Determinants of the Gender Pay Gap across Countries Gender Gap in Tertiary education Gender role attitudes: Scarce jobs should go to men first Being a housewife fulfilling Important in a job: Good hours Time Trend Mean 0.034 (1) 0.568 (4.65) (2) 0.544 (4.56) (3) 0.486 (4.21) (4) 0.518 (4.93) 0.402 (3.17) -0.313 (-1.93) 0.410 (3.24) -0.254 (-1.44) 0.436 (3.33) -0.694 (-1.97) -0.004 (-2.10) -0.003 (-1.33) -0.220 (-1.31) -0.004 (-1.62) -0.211 (-1.28) -0.006 (-3.07) 0.069 (1.80) 0.518 0.553 0.557 0.580 0.029 0.041 -0.066 Time Trend*Being a housewife fulfilling Adjusted R-square Notes: The dependent variable is the logarithm of 1 minus the gender pay ratios displayed in table A1; its means is equal to 0.227. The explanatory variables are the country-specific male averages minus the female averages of each variable. There are 45 observations and 24 countries. T-values in parentheses are from robust clustering by country. 45 .5 .5 JP .4 TK JP CA .3 CH UK TK AT CH DEW ES NL US PT BE FI FR US DEW US CZ PL ESSE NL HU AT IE IE PL FI SE IT SE FI IS IT ES NO PL DK NO IS FR BE CA .2 DK Gender Pay Gap Gender Pay Gap JP JP UK SK TK GR JP TK .4 JP UK .3 CA DEW ES NL US CA PT FR FI BE US DEW US SE TK ES CZ PL NL HU SK IE FI SE IT SE FI IS NO IT DK ES NO IS FR BE UK .2 DK .1 TK AT 0 .05 .1 .15 -.1 a) Gap: Scarce Jobs Should Go to Men -.05 0 .05 .1 .15 b) Gap: Being a Housewife Fulfilling .5 .5 JP JP JP TK .4 JP TK AT UK CA CH DEW NL ES CA US UK BE DEW TK ES NL GR .3 PT FIFR US PL SEUS CZ HU IE SK AT IE FI PL SE DK FISE IT IS IT DK PLNO ES NO BE FR Gender Pay Gap Gender Pay Gap PL .1 -.05 .2 GR CH JP .4 TK JP CA .3 US CA US DEW US .2 FI SE SK FI SE NO IS .1 PT BE UK FR ES IE IE GR TK AT CH CH DEW NL ES UK NL IS IT ES IS FR PL SE TK HU ITPL FI CZ AT DK NO PL DK BE .1 -.1 0 .1 .2 c) Higher Education Gap .3 -.15 -.1 -.05 0 .05 d) Gap: Religious Volunteering Figure 3 - Gender Pay Gap Across Countries 46 Conclusion The identity conflict faced by working mothers has implications for both their labour market decisions and their fertility decisions The role of firms and the state in facilitating the worklife balance of the family may be helpful (flexible work hours, affordable day-care, etc) Traditional gender roles attitudes (social norms) continue to play a role in women’s labour market outcomes. 47 Future research Incorporate measures of life-satisfaction to assess the importance of the identity conflict of working mothers Perform the analysis with completed fertility to address to issue of cohort effects and the “opting-out” hypothesis 48 Table A2. Average (over Time) Gender Role Attitudes and Work Values by Country Women Country Australia Austria Belgium Canada Czech Republic Denmark Finland France Greece Hungary Iceland Ireland Italy Japan Netherlands Norway Poland Portugal Slovakia Spain Sweden Switzerland Turkey United States United Kingdom West Germany Men Gender Role Attitudes Work Values Scarce Working House- Both Good Good Useful jobs mom wife income pay hours job 0.20 0.31 0.29 0.14 0.32 0.77 0.57 0.80 0.80 0.75 0.67 0.59 0.58 0.73 0.49 0.63 ─ 0.75 0.75 0.93 0.58 0.60 0.67 0.75 0.79 0.40 0.46 0.46 0.54 0.49 ─ 0.35 0.39 ─ 0.34 0.06 0.09 0.26 0.15 0.28 0.04 0.20 0.30 0.26 0.15 0.10 0.36 0.28 0.36 0.22 0.05 0.10 0.50 0.12 0.19 0.87 0.97 0.78 0.80 0.78 0.91 0.70 0.71 0.95 0.83 0.80 0.60 0.78 0.73 0.74 0.86 ─ 0.60 0.83 0.78 0.53 0.67 0.56 0.35 0.60 0.64 0.67 0.47 0.85 0.49 0.54 0.49 0.44 0.50 0.55 0.57 ─ 0.76 0.76 0.59 0.67 0.76 0.78 0.90 0.89 0.65 ─ 0.84 0.61 0.43 0.79 0.91 0.92 0.89 0.92 0.90 ─ 0.94 0.72 0.66 0.50 0.65 0.61 0.90 0.91 0.85 0.80 0.77 0.86 0.68 0.55 0.77 0.80 0.88 0.77 0.62 0.60 0.92 0.86 0.75 0.38 0.44 0.35 0.54 0.77 0.66 0.55 0.55 0.77 0.46 0.40 0.51 0.60 0.60 0.47 0.53 0.45 0.89 0.63 0.53 0.18 0.67 0.43 0.77 0.68 0.46 Gender Role Attitudes People Work Values Comp Scarce Working House- Both Good Good Useful OK jobs mom wife income pay hours job People Comp ─ 0.53 0.58 ─ 0.42 0.77 0.77 0.64 0.75 0.81 0.22 0.34 0.26 0.12 0.37 0.65 0.47 0.75 0.72 0.64 0.68 0.59 0.67 0.75 0.56 0.65 ─ 0.63 0.75 0.90 0.70 0.70 0.77 0.79 0.83 0.32 0.36 0.39 0.48 0.42 ─ 0.34 0.39 ─ 0.26 ─ 0.42 0.50 ─ 0.30 0.79 0.80 0.66 0.78 0.84 0.25 0.28 0.29 0.53 0.82 0.42 0.37 0.65 ─ 0.36 ─ 0.44 0.54 0.27 0.44 0.27 ─ 0.97 ─ 0.29 0.52 0.46 0.53 0.53 0.78 0.57 0.56 0.68 ─ 0.68 ─ 0.48 0.43 0.29 0.40 0.48 ─ 0.88 ─ 0.48 0.66 0.71 0.65 0.67 0.74 0.82 0.70 0.65 0.63 0.63 0.74 0.71 0.66 0.76 0.65 0.75 0.76 0.68 0.75 0.68 0.04 0.13 0.25 0.29 0.29 0.05 0.22 0.31 0.30 0.13 0.13 0.41 0.30 0.42 0.22 0.04 0.14 0.64 0.15 0.24 0.85 0.92 0.78 0.70 0.71 0.81 0.63 0.62 0.89 0.74 0.64 0.49 0.70 0.64 0.73 0.71 ─ 0.55 0.73 0.71 0.53 0.69 0.58 0.54 0.69 0.68 0.69 0.56 0.87 0.52 0.56 0.63 0.51 0.56 0.59 0.59 ─ 0.80 0.76 0.54 0.66 0.73 0.79 0.85 0.87 0.58 ─ 0.77 0.53 0.33 0.79 0.90 0.86 0.89 0.88 0.89 ─ 0.81 0.78 0.67 0.68 0.69 0.62 0.89 0.93 0.89 0.83 0.81 0.85 0.79 0.68 0.79 0.79 0.90 0.79 0.72 0.74 0.92 0.90 0.83 0.31 0.39 0.33 0.48 0.72 0.59 0.52 0.50 0.62 0.36 0.34 0.47 0.47 0.51 0.47 0.45 0.38 0.87 0.56 0.44 0.23 0.29 0.30 0.48 0.77 0.45 0.38 0.63 ─ 0.37 ─ 0.43 0.44 0.20 0.42 0.22 ─ 0.98 ─ 0.27 0.42 0.39 0.39 0.49 0.75 0.51 0.48 0.66 ─ 0.59 ─ 0.50 0.33 0.20 0.38 0.46 ─ 0.88 ─ 0.36 0.75 0.74 0.65 0.67 0.75 0.83 0.74 0.70 0.69 0.66 0.80 0.73 0.67 0.78 0.68 0.79 0.80 0.75 0.79 0.72 ─ ─ 0.73 0.25 0.49 0.48 0.76 0.74 0.39 ─ ─ 0.77 OK Source: Proportions of respondents computed from 1990-93, 1995-97 (ICPSR 2790) and 1999-01 World Value Surveys (ICPSR 3975). Individuals aged 18-64 excluding students and retirees. The gender role attitudes and work values are as in Table 1. With approximately 1000 respondents per country, the 90% confidence intervals of a proportion of 0.50 would be around 0.025 49