Investments: Theory and Applications Mark Hirschey Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Chapter 4 (Part 1) Buying and Selling Equities Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. CHAPTER 4 OVERVIEW Simple Buy-Sell Decisions Buying on Margin Selling Short Initial Public Offerings Individual Retirement Accounts Taxes 4-3 Simple Buy-Sell Decisions Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. KEY TERMS Bid stop-limit order Ask day order bid-ask spread buy stop order ticker symbols bid size round lots market depth inverted bid-ask spread stop-loss order stop-limit order day order open order market order good ‘til canceled order limit order All-or-none stop order fill-or-kill 4-5 Bid-Ask Spreads Bid: highest price an investor is willing to pay to buy a security Ask: lowest price an investor will accept to sell a security Bid-Ask Spread: gap between bid and ask prices for a particular security price markup faced by investors profit margin earned by exchange specialist or Nasdaq market maker usually positive Ticker Symbol: unique stock identifier to facilitate transaction speed and accuracy NYSE: unique one-, two-, or three-letter stock symbol OTC: typically assigned unique four-letter symbols, given the large numbers of such companies 4-6 Bid-Ask Spreads Round Lot: 100 shares of stock Bid Size: number of round lots sought by current buyers at any moment Example: A bid size of 1,000 means that a bid of $19.63 for Philip Morris is good for (1000 x 100) 100,000 shares worth (100,000 x $19.63) $1,963,000 Ask Size: number of round lots for sale at any moment Example: An ask size of 631 means that the ask price of $19.69 for Philip Morris is good for up to (631 x 100) 63,100 shares worth (63,100 x $19.69) $1,242,439. 4-7 Bid-Ask Spreads The spread of the bid-ask “size”: is an indicator of supply and demand and identifies upward or downward pressure on the stock price In the Philip Morris Example: The bid size of 100,000 shares is somewhat larger than the ask size of 63,100 demand is somewhat greater than supply at the current bidask spread this tends to place upward pressure on Philip Morris’s stock price 4-8 Bid-Ask Spreads Market Depth: Refers to the number of active buyers and sellers In our example: Individual or institutional shareholders can buy or sell a significant amount of Philip Morris stock at prices near the last quote of $19.69 4-9 Bid-Ask Spreads Normally, the bid-ask spread is positive In unusually volatile markets, an inverted bid-ask spread is observed: The quoted bid price is higher than the quoted ask price. Usually occurs when the bid size is very small compared with the ask size An absence of ready buyers If the bid size is only 100 shares, an eager seller of 10,000 shares might be willing to accept a lower price 4-10 Types of Orders Market order: an instruction to immediately buy or sell a security at the current market (bid) price In contrast to 4-11 Types of Orders Limit Order: Instruction to buy or sell at a “specified” price Can be executed only if the market price reaches at least the specified price target With a “buy “limit order: securities are bought at or below the specified price target. i.e. buy 100 shares of Walt Disney at $35 or less With a “sell” limit order: securities are sold at or above the specified price target i.e. sell 100 shares of Walt Disney at $35 or better 4-12 Types of Orders Stop order: Market order to buy or sell a certain quantity of a security if a specified price (the stop price) is reached or passed. A position is said to be stopped out: when a position is offset by the execution of a stop order. 4-13 Types of Orders Buy Stop Order: buy order held until market price rises to specific stop price at which point it becomes a “market order” Often used by short sellers (those who sell borrowed stock) who wish to limit their risk exposure Not permitted for over-the-counter trading. 4-14 Types of Orders Stop-loss order: Stop order to sell a long position at a specified price that is “below” the current market price. Typically used by investors “long” in the stock. Long position – means you own the stock “Stops the loss” if the price of the stock you own begins to fall, the stock will automatically be sold at the specified price. 4-15 Types of Orders Stop-limit order: order to buy or sell a certain quantity of a security at a specified price or better, but only after a specified price has been reached. A combination of a Stop Order and a Limit Order Stop Order: Market order to buy or sell a certain quantity of a security if a specified price (the stop price) is reached or passed. Limit Order: Instruction to buy or sell at a “specified” price 4-16 Types of Orders Day Order: Instruction to buy or sell during the present trading session Automatically expires if it can’t be executed during the trading session in which it is entered 4-17 Types of Orders Open order: limit order that has not yet been executed or filled Created when an investor places an offer to buy or sell a security at a price that differs from the current market price Stays active until it is executed (filled) or canceled by the investor Brokers may set a time limit (30 to 60 days) after which open orders are sometimes automatically canceled unless the investor instructs the broker to keep it active Good-’til-canceled order: another expression for an open order 4-18 Types of Orders All-or-none: buy or sell instruction that must be filled exactly or not at all A stipulation to a buy or sell order that instructs the broker to either fill the entire order or do not fill it at all. Partial fulfillment of an order is not allowed Used when investors are concerned about the potential for paying higher brokerage commissions on orders that are executed in piecemeal fashion. 4-19 Types of Orders Fill-or-kill: an all-or-none order that must be immediately filled or canceled A special type of all-or-none order Must be immediately filled in its entirety or, if this is not possible, completely canceled Again: Used when investors are concerned about the potential for paying higher brokerage commissions on orders that are executed in piecemeal fashion. 4-20 Dollar-Cost Averaging Over brief periods of time, financial markets are inherently unpredictable. It’s not possible to consistently choose the best time to buy or sell Dollar-Cost Averaging (Table 4.3): Strategy of investing a fixed amount in a security at regular intervals. 4-21 Dollar-Cost Averaging Provides a mechanical means by which an individual investor can benefit from market volatility by investing a fixed amount in a particular security at regular intervals (401k, IRA, etc.) Amount invested remains constant – the investor buys more shares when the price is low but fewer shares when the price is high The more volatile prices are, the greater the benefit that will be gained through dollar-cost averaging 4-22 Dollar-Cost Averaging Dollar –cost averaging is an appropriate means for investing a stream of money over time Allows long-term investors to reduce the effects of market risk by acquiring more shares when share prices are at their lowest The average cost of shares purchased by regular investors will always be lower than the average share price Table 4.3, Page 120: Illustration of Dollar-Cost Averaging 4-23 Dollar-Cost Averaging However: It does not eliminate the risks of investing in financial markets It does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in declining markets It will not prevent a loss if it is discontinued when the value of an account is less than its cost The “success” of dollar-cost averaging depends on the investor making regular purchases irrespective of market conditions There is no guarantee that dollar-cost averaging will always be the most efficient means for investing a large” lump-sum” amount 4-24 Dollar-Cost Averaging Instead of trying to choose the right time to invest, dollar-cost averaging helps the investor reduce risk and build a significant investment portfolio “over time”! 4-25 Dollar-Cost Averaging for Retirement Defined “Contribution” Retirement Plans: A retirement plan in which the employer is responsible only for making specified payments into the plan on behalf of qualifying participants (such as 401-k plans). Most common pension plans offered by employers Sometimes employer contributions are used to match additional voluntary contributions made by employees. Most often, the employee simply directs the employer to deduct a specific amount from his or her paycheck on a weekly or monthly basis. (a type of dollar-cost averaging) 4-26 Dollar-Cost Averaging for Retirement Defined “Contribution” Retirement Plans Con’t: At the time of employee retirement, the plan amount depends on the amount of income generated from investments made possible by employer and employee contributions to the employee’s account which is the employee’s asset and not a debt obligation of the plan sponsor. 4-27 Dollar-Cost Averaging for Retirement Defined “Benefit” Retirement Plan: A pension plan in which the corporate sponsor agrees to make specified dollar payments. The amount of benefit paid may depend on both number of years of service and salary income of the plan participant, etc. with no residual benefit for employee’s survivors. Represents a debt obligation of the plan sponsor. 4-28 Dollar-Cost Averaging for Retirement Dollar-cost averaging makes a Defined “Contribution” Retirement Plan an effective tool for building significant retirement assets Dollar-cost averaging is also an appropriate means for investing in an Individual Retirement Accounts (IRA’s) or other long-term investments. i.e. electronic transfer of a fixed amount of money to an investment account on a regular basis: monthly, bimonthly, or quarterly, etc. 4-29 Buying on Margin Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. Buying on Margin Key Terms Margin Account Margin Debt Margin Call Broker Bill Rate Short Sale Cover the Short Short Interest Short Interest Ratio Short Squeeze 4-31 Margin Accounts A Margin Account is an investor account that holds securities purchased with a combination of cash and borrowed funds Brokerages earn a significant portion of their total profit by making such loans. The loan in the margin account is collateralized by stocks or bonds. If the value of these securities drops sufficiently, the owner will be asked to either put up more collateral or sell some of the securities held in the account. 4-32 Margin Accounts The minimum “initial” margin (at the time the account is opened) for: stock purchases in the U.S. is 50% i.e. can buy $10,000 worth of stocks with $5,000 investment grade bonds is 30% Long Term Treasury bonds is 10% 4-33 Margin Accounts The minimum “maintenance” margin for: Common stocks is 25%, but most brokerages require 30% $10,000 in market value and be maintained with only $3,000 worth of investment capital. Investment grade bonds is 25% Treasury Bonds is 10% 4-34 Margin Accounts The initial and maintenance margin requirements are similar to security deposits. They protect the lending broker from the loss of lent funds. 4-35 Margin Accounts Margin rules are federally regulated by the Federal Reserve Board However, margin requirements and interest rates may vary “above” legal minimums between individual brokers and dealers. Higher concentrated accounts holding fewer than three securities Accounts that hold especially volatile securities – (e.g., Internet stocks). Margin Debt: is the amount borrowed to buy or maintain a security investment. 4-36 Margin Accounts Margin Call: Broker demand for additional collateral. Usually due to adverse price movements The investor will be asked to increase the account’s equity back to 50% within three business days. If the investor is unable or unwilling to provide additional cash or securities collateral, the broker will liquidate sufficient securities in the account to bring the account’s equity back up to 50%. Thus, during adverse market conditions, margin calls can have the effect of forcing investors to liquidate positions following a sharp price decline. 4-37 Margin Accounts For lenders, margin loans represent a very low risk loan Stocks and bonds can be readily liquidated Low probability of an immediate 30 – 50% loss in the value of a margin investor’s total portfolio. Also, the customer remains legally responsible for the total amount borrowed. 4-38 Margin Accounts The Broker Call Rate (or broker loan rate): is the interest rate that banks and brokerage houses charge to finance margin loans to investors. Due to it’s low risk, the Broker Call Rate is one of the least expensive interest rates available to borrowers. However, brokers sometimes charge high-risk investors the broker call rate plus a modest markup or service charge. 4-39 Margin Call Risk Although margin accounts are a low-risk proposition for lenders, they entail substantial risks for margin account customers Margin accounts greatly amplify the typical risks of stock and bond investors. Customers implicitly agree to sell in the event of a sharp downturn in the value of their portfolio Customers could be forced to sale at the worst possible time in order to meet maintenance margin requirements as stock prices tumble 4-40 Margin Call Risk “Temporary” market downturns do no lasting damage to the stock portfolios of patient buyand-hold investors. However, when buying on margin, even a temporary market downturn can: Can cause a margin call and force the liquidation of margin account securities at low prices Can lead to enormous permanent loses for margin buyers 4-41 Other Problems With Leverage Using “Other people’s money: Encourages poor investment selection Encourages customers to buy too much of an individual issue—resulting in poor diversification Non of the most successful stock investors of our time use leverage: Neither Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, nor John Templeton advocates the use of margin accounts. 4-42 Selling Short Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright © 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. How to Profit from Falling Prices Short Sale - Sale of borrowed stock on margin The borrower hopes to repurchase the shares in the market at a later date for an amount that is less than the previous selling price (thus generating a profit) and return the borrowed shares to the lender or Cover the Short: Return of borrowed shares. A way to profit from the decline in a company’s stock price 4-44 How to Profit from Falling Prices Shares are borrowed from the existing margin customers of the brokerage firm who signed “loan consent” agreements in order to open their margin accounts. The brokerage firm will take a position in the stock if necessary Lenders of stock sold short profit from: interest and dividend income during the lending period. 4-45 How to Profit from Falling Prices Selling Short is a strategy used with a company with poor or deteriorating conditions. Expected negative future performance for the company and its stock price Bearish sentiment for issue: the price of the stock is expected to fall in the future Again: The investor borrows stock and sells Hopes to repurchase the shares in the market at a later date For an amount that is less than the previous selling price (thus generating a profit) and Cover the Short: Return the borrowed shares to the lender – Buy low and sell high in reverse order! 4-46 How to Profit from Falling Prices Although the “purchase” of stock on margin is risky: If a stock is “bought”: the potential “loss” is limited to the amount invested. the potential “gain” is unlimited, or “the sky’s the limit.” 4-47 How to Profit from Falling Prices The Short Sale of stock is an inherently riskier proposition: All short sales are margin account transactions because they involve the use of borrowed stock The potential “gain” is limited to the amount of proceeds obtained when the borrowed stock is sold. If the company went bankrupt and its stock price went to zero, all sale proceeds could be kept by the short seller. the potential “loss” is unlimited If the stock price continues to gallop skyward Remember: you must buy back the stock and return to the lender. 4-48 How to Profit from Falling Prices Example: You borrow shares and sell at $25 per share. You hope to repurchase the shares for less than $25 per share at a later date and return the shares to the lender (i.e. cover your short). The spread between your buy and sell price is your profit. Loss is “unlimited”: there’s no limit to how high the stock price can climb Potential gain is “limited”: to the amount of proceeds obtained when the borrowed stock is sold short – i.e. the price of the stock can only go to zero 4-49 How to Profit from Falling Prices Short Interest data are reported by brokers to the SEC once a month and summary short interest data are published in financial publications. The amount of short Interest in a particular stock is reported in two different ways Short interest – Number of shares sold short Short interest ratio – Short interest expressed in terms of day’s trading volume The number of shares sold short relative to the average daily trading volume in stock. Useful indicator of the relative amount of short interest 4-50 How to Profit from Falling Prices When either measure of short interest is high, bearish sentiment is significant. Negative future performance is expected for the company and its stock price. i.e. investors are selling short (selling borrowed shares) with the expectation that: the price of the stock will fall they can repurchase and return the borrowed shares at a price lower than their original sell price. 4-51 How to Profit from Falling Prices In making a short sale, the investor becomes open to the possibility of being forced to buy if the stock price rises for even a brief period of time by even small amounts. If momentum investors jump into an appreciating stock, a short squeeze can result as buyers “squeeze” short sellers to cover their short positions. Short Squeeze – Pressure on short sellers caused by rapidly appreciating stock prices 4-52 Margin Call Risk for Short Sellers Selling short is even more risky than the purchase of a stock on margin A rise in stock price both cuts the short seller’s equity and increases the short seller’s margin requirement. Margin calls occur about twice as fast following adverse price moves for short sellers as they do for stock buyers. 4-53 In a rising market: as the price of the stock starts to go up, short sellers add to momentum as they panic to cover their shorts Demand artificially inflates the stock price, followed by collapse when short interest is exhausted (Fig 4.3 Pg 133) 4-54 Ways to Limit Short-Selling Risk Ways to limit Short-Selling Risk: Stock selection and timing are both vital to a profitable short sale Short stocks (sell borrowed stocks) only when their prices are falling Limit short positions Avoid heavily shorted stocks Never get in the way of momentum buyers 4-55 Margin Call Risk Table 4.4, Page 126: Leverage Increases Potential Gains and Losses Spreadsheet: Establishing Margin Accounts 4-56