The Public between
elections:
A Check on Presidential Power?
Bush’s job approval
(CNN/USAToday/Gallup)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2/1/2001
6/17/2002
6/27/2003 11/19/2004 1/20/2006
5/1-3/08
Bush’s job approval
CBS/NYTimes poll 10/14/2008
Approve
Disapprove
Republicans
53
35
Democrats
5
92
Independents
20
64
Why do presidents’ job
approval ratings go up
and down?
How do people form opinions
about the president’s job
performance?
Partisanship
The economy
How do people form opinions
about the president’s job
performance?
Partisanship
The economy
News about outcomes
How do people form opinions
about the president’s job
performance?
Partisanship
The economy
News about outcomes
Rally effects
What are the consequences of
changes in presidential
approval ratings?

Can affect relationships with members
of Congress

Can affect presidential strategy

Can have electoral impacts
How do Presidents try
to manipulate public
opinion to their
advantage?
Going Public

A strategy whereby the president
promotes himself and his policies in
Washington by appealing to the
American public for support
TR on his relationship
with Republicans in the
Senate
“Gradually I was forced to abandon
the effort to persuade them to come
my way, and then I achieved results
only by appealing over the heads of
the Senate and House leaders to the
people, who were the masters of both
of us.”
--The Works of Theodore Roosevelt (20: 342)
Why is Going Public a more
common strategy in the
late 20th Century?





Rise in presidential travel
Rise in accessible communications
(TV)
Rise in animosity of national press
Declining number of people watching
major television addresses
Move from institutionalized pluralism
to individualized pluralism
Public Appearances of Presidents (in and out of Washington),
from Going Public
Presidential Addresses (from Going Public)
Going Public:
Bush gets great press in the San
Francisco Chronicle for a minor
local speech, May 3, 2003.
How do Presidents try
to manipulate public
opinion to their
advantage?
Organization of the White
House/ Executive Office
of the President




Office of Communications
Office of Public Liasion
Office of Public Affairs
Political Advisers on staff
Doonesbury
5/1/03
Rally effects
Bush’s job approval
(CNN/USAToday/Gallup)
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2/1/2001
6/17/2002
6/27/2003 11/19/2004 1/20/2006
5/1-3/08
Bush’s job approval
(CNN/USAToday/Gallup)
Terrorist
Attacks
90
Invasion
of Iraq
70
Saddam
Hussein
found in hole
80
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2/1/2001
6/17/2002
6/27/2003 11/19/2004 1/20/2006
5/1-3/08
What is a rally effect?


A sudden and substantial increase in
public approval
In response to dramatic international
events
What creates a rally?






Major military developments (positive)
Summits
Sudden military interventions
Major diplomatic actions
Dramatic technological developments
Attacks on American soil
Why?

Invokes patriotism

Invoke head of state role

Depend on reaction of partisan
opponents
Consequences


No long term effects for president or
party
Short term effects can impact elections