Ventures, Inc.
Effects-based Coalition
Operations
Maris “Buster” McCrabb
KSCO Symposium
23 April 2002
1
Ventures, Inc.
My talk today consists of…
A
brief description of the elements that
comprise the theory of effects-based
operations (EBO)
 A brief discussion on the implications of EBO
for knowledge systems in a coalition (nonhomogeneous) environment
 The briefest discussion on framing, beliefs
and mechanism (I.e., my paper)
 An advertisement for the AFRL/IF EBO ATD
research
2
EBO in One Slide
Plan
Disrupt
Ventures, Inc.
Effect (Results)
Delivery of POL
Objects
Mechanism (Causes)
Destroy Bridge 4
Bridge 4 Destroyed
Destroy Bridge 6
Tasks (Actions)
…desired behavioral outcomes.
Mechanism (Causes)
Indicators
Global
Situation
Awareness
Air
Objectives
Air
Tasks
Objects
Air & Space
Control
Force
Support
L
E
V
E
L
Bridge 6 Destroyed
A
N
A
L
Y
S
I
S
CRISIS
Objects
Indicators
Physical effects that lead to…
T
A
S
K
Now
Force
Application
Objects
Force
Enhancement
3
Effects-Based Operations
Ventures, Inc.
"Effects based operations is a methodology for planning, executing and
assessing operations to attain the effects required to achieve desired
national security objectives.“
AFDD 1
..indirect effects
Actions cause..
Attack
Marshalling
Yards
Mechanism
Rail
Movement
Disrupted
…direct effects and...
Normandy
Battlefield
Isolated
(cumulative)
German
War Economy
Collapsed
(cascading)
The challenge is predicting & assessing what physical actions
produce the desired behavioral effects over some period of time 4
Operation Allied Force
Ventures, Inc.
Milosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions
(total Desired Effect)
Air Attacks
Solidarity of NATO
(Military Effect)
(Diplomatic Effect)
Russian Diplomacy
(Diplomatic Effect)
Buildup of NATO Ground Power
(Military-Diplomatic Effect)
Kosovar Albanian Attacks
Sanctions, etc.
(Military Effect)
(Economic Effect)
5
Operation Allied Force (2)
Ventures, Inc.
Milosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions
(total Desired Effect)
Air Attacks on Strategic Targets
Air Attacks on Fielded Forces Targets
Air Attacks on National C2 Targets
Air Attacks on Military-Industrial Targets
6
Operation Allied Force (3)
Ventures, Inc.
Milosevic accedes to NATO’s conditions
(total Desired Effect)
Degraded National C2
Desired
Military
Effects
Degraded Ability
to Resupply Forces
Degraded Ability
to C2 FRY Forces
Attacks on Infrastructure
Freedom to Attack
(e.g., bridges)
Physical
Actions
Desired
Political
Effects
Attacks on Electrical Power
(e.g., plants)
Degraded IADS
Attack Serbian AF
(e.g., aircraft, airbases)
Avoid Serbian SHORAD
(e.g., fly above)
7
Tasks for Knowledge Systems
Ventures, Inc.
The challenge is predicting & assessing what physical actions
produce the desired behavioral effects over some period of time
Physical domain
impacts
“ground
Information domain
The “domain”
Of KS?
truth”
Organization
(structure,
functions,
capacity)
Observations
(indicators),
signals,
communication
Thanks to Yuri Levchuk, Aptima, Inc.
Cognitive domain
Mental models,
decision-making
8
Ventures, Inc.
Semantic Network
9
Thanks to Gil Kuperman, AFRL/HECA
(not all shown)
Actor N
Models of
(Complex) Causality
Thinly
Shared
All dimensional, multilateral
Belief Structures
(Framing)
Situation Awareness
Thickly Shared
n-dimensional,
bilateral
Actor A
Actor B
Models of
(Complex) Causality
Models of
(Simple) Causality
Belief Structures
n-dimensional,
bilateral
Belief Structures
(Framing)
(Framing)
Situation Awareness
Situation Awareness
AFRL EBO ATD External Relationships
Organization
Relationship
AFC2ISRC/ESC
• Our sponsors
• Working technology transition via AT AOC
AFRL/HE
• Working to incorporate non-conventional EBO (IO)
capabilities
AFSAA
• Models for Homeland Defense
Boeing
• CRDA: EBO & Multi-sensor C2 Aircraft
DARPA
• Leveraging TS & adversary response work
• Provided FY01 funds; FY02 funds planned
JWAC
• Leveraging their TS models: adversary response work
JFCOM
• Part of Joint EBO team
• Catalyst for JFCOM EBO Concepts
NAIC
• Leveraging their TS models: telecommunications,
C2 Process
• Plan to provide some FY02 funding
AFRL EBO Related Research Efforts
• Adversarial/Behavioral Modeling
– Basic Research Initiatives (6.1)
– Models of Defeat for EBO (UMass)
– Adversary Intent Inference for Predictive Battlespace Awareness (UConn)
• COA Development for Time Critical Targeting
– Applied Research Initiative (6.2)
– Effects-based COA development for TCTs
– Software agents for monitoring and alert
• Process Assessment and Metrics for EBO
– Phase II SBIR
– Assess current AOC and JTF processes for incorporation of EBO
– Develop MOEs, MOPs, MOMs to measure success of EBO
– Develop prototype Process Assessment Tool to automate metrics use