How Iowa, New Hampshire, and
Weird Rules Determine Who Wins

Or, Who won Iowa & then the GOP
Nomination

How it used to work
 National nominating conventions
 Selection of delegates controlled by party officials
 Many / most delegates uncommitted

Example. 1960
 Kennedy vs. Nixon
 To gain party nomination, JFK had to convince party leaders he could win
 Entered West Virginia primary election

“ Real ” choice made inside the national convention meeting

Before 1972
 Most states did not have public primary or caucus
 In 1960, only 25% of delegates to convention selected by voters
 By 2000 70 - 85% selected by voters and bound to candidate on 1st ballot at convention

Today Primaries or Caucuses
 Primary = vote “ directly ” for candidate (or for delegates pledged to a candidate).
 Caucus = vote at a public meeting to elect delegates

The Demise of Nominating
Conventions
 Old system failed to reflect what voters wanted (sometimes)
 Gave “ too much ” control to party leaders
 Party leaders had to worry about finding a candidate that they could work with

Chicago, 1968
 Incumbent President was LB Johnson
 Vietnam War in 4th year:
 Tet Offensive, 31 Jan 1968
 New Hampshire Primary, March 1968



McCarthy 42%

LBJ 49% LBJ wins, but....
RFK enters race days latter
G. Wallace saying he ’ ll runs as 3rd Party

Chicago, 1968


LBJ drops out of 1968 race in March 1968
Vice President HHH says he ’ ll run
 Primaries & Delegates prior to convention:
 RFK won 4 258 delegates
 McCarthy won 5 393 delegates
 HHH didn't run 561 delegates

Chicago 1968
 RFK assassinated June 1968
 Convention in August: video

Chicago, 1968
 Democratic
Convention Vote:
HHH 1759
McCarthy 601
McGovern 146
Philips
Moore
67
17

After Chicago




Democrats split, lose to Nixon
Rule of ‘ party bosses ’ challenged by
McCarthy, McGovern
Reform commission established
State laws changed

Post 1968 Reforms
 New Nomination Rules:
 most delegates must be selected by voters
 but how?
 caucuses with open participation
 primaries, with candidates on ballot

Proportionality (Democrats)
 maximize women & minorities at Dem convention

Post 1968 reforms
 What is a political party?
 voters?
 elected officials?
 elites in party organization (DNC, RNC)?

Since 1972
 National parties kept tinkering with rules:
 how award state ’ s delegates?


 winner take all?
proportional to voter support?
PLEOS?

 who can participate

 only registered partisans?
independents what schedule, when start?

March, then February, then January...

1972 - 2008
 The Carter Model
 outsider candidate ‘ beats ’ party establishment

Gary Hart ‘ 84; John McCain 2000; Obama ‘ 08
 The Mondale/Clinton/Bush/Romney Model
 Super-delegates (PLEOs)
 from 75% voter selected to 54%
 Frontloading and Super Tuesdays

1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Frontloading
1984 IA Feb 20 NH Feb 28 50% selected by May 20th
IA Feb 8 NH Feb 16
IA Feb 10 NH Feb 18
IA Feb 12 NH Feb 20
IA Jan 24 NH Feb 1
IA Jan 19 NH Jan 27
IA Jan 3 NH Jan 8 50% selected by Feb 9th

Frontloading
 1976, 12 weeks until 50% of all delegates awarded
 2008, 4 weeks until 50% of all delegates awarded

Differences Dems vs. Republicans
 Schedules
 Dems tougher on penalties for jumping the gun
 Proportionality
 A Democratic thing; GOP was winner take all
 Super Delegates
 A Democratic thing
 Republicans more predictable
 Democrats = chaos

To summarize
 Party Conventions used to pick nominees
 Voters in primaries / caucuses now pick
 Primary / caucus rules matter
 what state goes first?
 how allocate delegates?

Iowa, 2012: RCP poll average
 Romney
 Paul
 Santorum
 Gingrich
 Perry
 Bachman
23%
22%
16%
14%
12%
7%

Iowa, ‘predicted’ result:
 Romney
 Paul
28%
18%
 Santorum 15%
 Gingrich
 Perry
15%
9%
 Bachmann whatever…

Expectations
 What do pre-Iowa poll results reflect?
 What is expected, given these results?
 By whom?
 What if candidate fails to meet expectations?

Iowa, 2012: Result
 Santorum
 Romney
 Paul
 Gingrich
 Perry
 Bachman
25%*
25%
21%
13%
10%
5%

Iowa, 2012
 Why so much attention?
 2008 165 stories on CNN
 2008 160 stories on ABC
 2008 900 AP stories
 2008 380 stories NYT
 2012: 40+ NYT stories by Dec 24 th 2011

Iowa, 2012
 What effects of Iowa this year?
 Who stays in race?
 Who drops out?
 Did any other state play this role?
 Why Iowa?

Iowa, 2012
 Can any candidate remain viable if not in the top 3 out of Iowa?
 Bachmann – dead.

Iowa, 2012
 Can any candidate remain viable if not in the top 3 out of Iowa?
 Perry – dead.

Iowa, 2012
 Can any candidate remain viable if not in the top 3 out of Iowa?
 Newt – walking dead.

Beating expectations:

Media Shift, 2012 after IA
 Romney
 Paul
 Gingrich
 Perry
33% pre, 37% post
20% pre, 17% post
20% pre, 11% post
9% pre, 7% post
 Bachman 7% pre, 3% post
 Santorum 9% pre, 21% post
 Huntsman 2% pre, 2% post

Beating expectations
 Would Santorum have been known w/o
Iowa?
 Huckabee?
 Would Obama have beat Clinton?

So, what role Iowa?
 Winnowing field of candidates
 Defining frontrunner

Killed Romney ‘08, made Obama ‘08…
 Influence what happens in NH?

So, Why Iowa?
 What if different state went first?
 What if same-day national primary?
 Regional primaries?

Why Iowa?
 Benefits of sequential elections
 Learning?