(1/13) - Scientific Method

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Physics 103
Dr. Tyler E. Nordgren
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Organization
• Lecture two days a week (MW):
– 1 hour and 20 minutes
– Lectures available on class website
• Lab one day a week (Thurs. or Fri.):
– Thurs. am, Thurs. pm, Fri. pm
– 2 hours and 50 minutes in AHON 117
• Possible evening activities:
– Telescope viewing on ASTRO deck.
– Trip to a dark sky location.
– Something else?
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Grading
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Homework: 20%
Quizzes: 15%
Labs: 10%
Class citizenship: 5%
Exams: 30%
– 3 exams, lowest grade dropped
– Each exam 15%
• Final: 20%
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Grades
Final Grades:
> 90%  3.7-4.0 A
89% - 80%  2.7 – 3.3 B
79% - 70%  1.7 – 2.3 C
69% - 60%  0.7 – 1.3 D
< 59%  0.0 F
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Grades
Final Grades:
“C Acceptable. The quality of work was
acceptable meeting minimal course standards
but was not exceptional.”
University of Redlands Catalog 2012-2014
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Structure
• Homework assigned every day.
• 9:30 am homework due electronically
• In class:
– Lecture
– Concept questions
– In-class discussion
• New homework assigned.
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Homework & Quizzes
• Assigned every class on class website:
www.masteringastronomy.com
• Due 9:30 morning of every class.
• Takes about 30 minutes.
• You will get instant feedback and grade.
• I will tailor class lecture to homework.
• At end of week, a short quiz.
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Class Rules
• See hand-out and website.
• You are adults and responsible for ALL rules.
• A few in particular:
– No late homework is accepted.
– No admittance to lab once started.
– No make-up exams.
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General Astrology
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Goals
• Learn:
– How the Heavens affect your daily life.
• We will:
– Cast horoscopes.
– Predict auspicious days and events.
– Identify compatible mates.
• The ancients did it, so can you!
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Astronomy
2/18/1996
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Concept Question
I am taking this class because I:
1. want to be an astronomy minor.
2. love the night sky and so would be here even if it
wasn’t a requirement.
3. love the idea that the stars and planets foretell our
future so I check my horoscope daily.
4. need this as my M1 or M3 to graduate (but I still love
the night sky).
5. need this to graduate and I hate all the other science
options, so maybe this won’t suck as much.
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Goals
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What is science?
What is the scientific method?
Does the scientific method work?
What does the scientific method assume?
What is not a scientific argument.
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Science as a tool
• Science is a tool for answering why and how.
• “I have high cholesterol, what should I do?”
– Take cholesterol lowering medication.
– Consult my astrologer.
– Pray to the god Baal and sacrifice a goat.
• How do you choose what to do?
• What is your criteria for the “best” solution?
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Tests and Theories
• Science is a tool for telling you what works!
• How do you know if your theory (idea, model,
hypothesis) is right?
– You can test it!
– I make a claim, you can test that too.
• A scientific theory must do three things:
– Explain what is seen.
– Predict what will happen in the future.
– Be falsifiable.
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The Scientific Method
1. Observe an event.
2. Develop a model (or hypothesis) which makes a
prediction.
model
3. Test the prediction.
4. Observe the result.
5. Revise the hypothesis.
test
6. Repeat as needed.
7. A successful hypothesis becomes a Scientific Theory.
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Medical Science
Scientific Method
High Cholesterol
Observation
Patient has high cholesterol
Hypothesis
(prediction)
Certain chemicals may dissolve
cholesterol deposits.
Test
Give 100 patients these chemicals,
give 100 patients placebo.
Observe result
Same number lower their
cholesterol as placebo patients.
Revise hypothesis? Try different combo of chemicals.
New test?
Scientific Theory
Re-run medical test. Observe
results.
Lipitor reduces cholesterol.
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Everyday Science
Scientific Method
Observation
Making Spaghetti Sauce
Spaghetti sauce should be red.
Hypothesis (prediction) Maybe try a tomato sauce.
Test
Heat pot of tomato sauce.
Observe result
Taste the sauce - bland.
Revise hypothesis?
Use tomato sauce and garlic!
New test?
Add garlic, taste - not so bland.
Scientific Theory
The Final Recipe.
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A Theory’s Power
• A successful theory means:
– Applies to the future (the prediction)
– You don’t have to keep doing the test.
• Example:
– Lipitor: No more trials
– Recipe: No more trial and error
• Can you think of an example of the scientific
method from your daily life?
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Science is Reproducible
• Anyone must be able to reproduce the claims of
your result.
– Cookbooks
• (In)Famous examples:
– Cold Fusion
– “Wow!” SETI signal
• The conservative nature of Science.
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Recap: Theories, Guesses, Laws
• What does the word “Theory” mean to you?
“A conjecture; guess” (Webster’s Dictionary)
• Does it mean the same to a scientist?
“A model which has been born out by repeated tests
and observation.”
• Is a Theory less than a Law?
“Evolution is just a theory, it is not a fact.”
• Do Theories “grow up” to be Laws?
“Einstein’s Theory of Relativity”
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Concept Question
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Which of these statements is true.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
A theory becomes a Law after it has been proven correct.
A theory becomes a Law if it is supported by the results of
enough experiments.
A Law that is refuted by experimental results becomes just a
theory.
The movement of the Earth around the Sun and the
formation of the Universe in the Big Bang are theories.
We should withhold judgments on theories until they
become Laws.
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Limitations of Science
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Key to the scientific method is The Test.
Q: What can and cannot be tested?
Q: What is and is not reproducible?
A: Magic, the Divine, matters of faith cannot be tested
and are not reproducible.
Result:
1. Science is the search for natural or material explanations to the
Universe.
2. Science is limited to those questions of which natural or material
explanations can be applied.
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Assumptions of Science
• The Universe isn’t random.
– Miracles versus the Unlikely
– The same test done by you, me, yesterday and tomorrow should all
give the same result.
• Natural or material explanations are sufficient to describe
the world.
– Unknown versus Unknowable
– “God of the Gaps”
– Personal Experience
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Concept Question
• Given these assumptions and limitations is
Science a Belief like Religion or Philosophy?
1. Yes
2. No
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Semester Goals
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What is science?
What are the stars?
What are Black Holes?
Where did the Universe Come from?
Is there alien life in the Universe?
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Tonight
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Go outside at 5:57pm (internet/iPhone for time).
Look North East and 60o above the horizon.
At 5:59pm what do you see?
Send me an email telling me (briefly) what you
saw.
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Homework #1
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Due Wednesday 15-Jan:
Read Bennett Chapter 3 and article on my faculty website:
http://www.redlands.edu/academics/college-of-arts-sciences/undergraduatestudies/astronomy/16243.aspx
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Do: Login to www.MasteringAstronomy.com
Course ID: Nordgren2014
Do: HW1
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