Personal Investments Personal Investments 1 Unit 1 Introduction – Your financial life 2 Activity: Financial dreams/Financial nightmares • List all your financial dreams • List all your financial nightmares 3 Your (financial) Life Your Financial Life High School and College Income $60,000 $40,000 $20,000 -$10,000 Childhood You begin by being a financial drain to your middle-class parents at $10,000 a year or $184,000 until you leave the roost—and that doesn’t include college tuition. 10 You’re starting to earn money (not much) and getting the education (expensive) to earn more. This is when you start with credit cards and student loans. 20 Growing your career and managing life’s ups and downs Starting a family Your earnings start to take off and you settle down to start a family. With that comes your first house (down payment of about $30,000), mortgage, and the kids who now drain you $10,000 a year. You need an emergency fund of six months. You protect your assets with insurance. 30 You move towards your peak earning years and use this time to grow your wealth. You upgrade your house and save for your kids’ education ($100,000) and your retirement ($1 million). You may be unemployed (by choice or not) at times. You may divorce. You may have to care for your parents. All these could set you back. 40 Age (years) 4 50 Retirement If you’ve been good about saving, you will enter retirement debtfree and comfortable for the rest of your life. If you haven’t, the only option is to continue working if you can. Healthcare becomes a big expense. Your income could fall well before you reach retirement age. You continue to accumulate for retirement and plan how your nest egg will last for the rest of your life. Health issues start to crop up and you look to protect your health and assets. You may work longer because you need to or because you want to. 60 70 80 People change jobs on average every two years. Expect to be selfemployed,underemployed or unemployed sometimes. 5 Typical income DRAFT 3/6/2007 6 Your financial life - income 2005 Median Household Income by Age 70000 60000 Income in 2005 dollars 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 -20000 Age in years Source: US Census Current Population Survey 2006 DRAFT 3/6/2007 7 Over 75 70 to 74 65 to 69 60 to 64 55 to 59 50 to 54 45 to 49 40 to 44 35 to 39 30 to 34 25 to 29 15 to 24 5 to 14 -10000 Under 5 0 Based on gender? DRAFT 3/6/2007 8 Based on education DRAFT 3/6/2007 9 Salaries are leveling off. You can still improve your earnings with education. Washington Total: 2-person families 3-person families 4-person families 5-person families 6-person families 7-or-more-person families 10 2006 Median Income 63,705 58,584 66,252 75,140 68,562 62,484 61,212 Income is not rising but debt is Consumer debt has doubled in the past 10 years (Consumer credit $ millions - does not include mortgages) 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 DRAFT 3/6/2007 11 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 0 People are raiding the piggy bank Homeowner equity is falling as more debt is assumed (Homeowner's equity/Value of Household Real Estate) 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1950-9 1960-9 1970-9 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association DRAFT 3/6/2007 12 1980-9 1990-9 2000-6 Spending power? Personal Disposable Income and Outstanding Household Debt $ Billions 12,000 10,000 Personal Disposable Income Outstanding Household Debt 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1979 DRAFT 3/6/2007 1984 1989 1994 13 1999 2004 How are we doing at savings? DRAFT 3/6/2007 14 Could we save more? DRAFT 3/6/2007 15 Summary • Consider your entire financial life and be aware of all the twists and turns • Choose a good career and educate yourself • Don’t borrow to spend • Save – even if you think you’ve saved all you can, save more DRAFT 3/6/2007 16 What we will do in this course • • • • • • • Focus on financial goals Save and let Uncle Sam help Learn about different investments Asset allocation NOT investment selection Evaluate funds Learn when to buy and sell Protect your wealth DRAFT 3/6/2007 17 Your financial goals (optional) DRAFT 3/6/2007 18 Setting goals – start small • What do you want to achieve this year? • Over the next year, what ONE occurrence would have to happen for you to feel you’ve made significant financial progress? • Write this occurrence as a goal. • Describe why it is important to you. • Describe how you will feel when you have accomplished this goal. 19 Cost out your goals • Down payment on house (The more you put down the less risk to default and less monthly payments) • Wedding (yours or your kids) • Car (Budget or goal?) • College tuition (you/your kids/your grandkids) (http://cgi.money.cnn.com/tools/collegecost/collegecost.html) • Starting your own business • Retirement (Rule of thumb – annual income divided by 4%) (http://sites.stockpoint.com/aarp_rc/wm/Retirement/Retirement.asp?act=L OGIN) • Estate (Inheritance or charity) DRAFT 3/6/2007 20 Your net worth What you own (home, car, bank accounts, etc.) Less What you owe (mortgage, car loans, student loans, credit card balance, etc.) Keep track of it and grow it every year. DRAFT 3/6/2007 21 Your financial life – net worth Household Wealth - Survey of Income and Program Participation 2000 140000 120000 Median Net Worth Excluding Home 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 0 Less than 35 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 64 years Source: US Census DRAFT 3/6/2007 22 65 to 69 years 70 to 74 years 75 years and older Summary • Set goals – start small and keep at it • Make your goals specific and cost them out • Calculate your net worth • Grow your net worth DRAFT 3/6/2007 23 Unit 2 -Tax-advantaged saving Saving with help from Uncle Sam. 24 The importance of saving early Which is more? 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 1. Saving $4000 a year from 25 to 45 years old and then no more savings but you leave it in your account (at 8% per year) 2. Saving $8000 (double) a year from 45 to 65 years old DRAFT 3/6/2007 25 to 45 years 25 45 to 65 years Finding money to invest – time value of money (a review) DRAFT 3/6/2007 26 3. The effect of saving every year • You cut out candy and soda for savings of $25 every week. • What will you have in 40 years? 27 Time value of money – a review Interest rate Savings per week 2008 Number of Years Future Value 5% $25 40 $152,602.02 5% $50 40 $305,204.03 5% $75 40 $457,806.05 28 The effect of a better return Interest rate Savings per week Number of Years Future Value 8% $25 40 $349,100.78 8% $50 40 $698,201.57 8% $75 40 $1,047,302.35 29 Start early and let your money work for you Earnings are much higher than contributions 900000 Contributions 800000 Earnings 700000 600000 500000 Number of Savings Total years per year contributions 25-65 years 30-65 years 35-65 years 40-65 years Earnings Total 40 4000 160000 $798,540 $958,540 35 4000 140000 $552,947 $692,947 30 4000 120000 $377,843 $497,843 25 4000 100000 $252,996 $352,996. 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 25-65 years 30-65 years 35-65 years 30 40-65 years Case study: Cost of cashing out • About 57% of people who leave companies cash out their retirement benefits of $8445. If you left this money in a retirement plan for 40 years at a return of 8%, calculate what it contributes to your retirement. 31 Cost of cashing out • You lose about $183,500 for your retirement fund. If you cash out, you pay taxes on your withdrawal plus a 10% penalty on top of that. That would leave you with $6000 now versus $183,500 when you retire. 32 Maximizing retirement saving • 54% have access to employer-sponsored plans and 43% participate • 53% of white-collar occupations • 40% of blue-collar occupations • 20% of service occupations • Employees make contributions to retirement savings plan • Employers may match contributions up to a certain amount • When employee leaves company, the money goes with him or her (portable) • Retirement income depends on how much employee contributes and the returns on the money DRAFT 3/6/2007 33 Employer Plans • Most common defined contribution plan is 401K – 43 million participants – 457,830 plans – $2.1 Trillion in assets DRAFT 3/6/2007 34 401K – How does it work? • Jill is single and makes $30,000 a year gross salary and she wants to put $1800 away for retirement in 30 years. • She is considering three options: – 401K contribution – Traditional IRA contribution – Roth IRA contribution DRAFT 3/6/2007 35 401K – How it works • Salary is typically contributed pretax – will reduce your salary for tax purposes • Maximum contribution $15,500 (2008) with an additional catch-up of $5000 for those over 50 years old • 82% of employees contribute • On average participants put in 6.8% of salary • 91% of employers match your contributions up to on average 3.3% of your salary • There is a 10% penalty for withdrawing before age 59 ½ and you have to pay taxes on your withdrawal • When you leave your company, you may rollover your 401K to a Individual Retirement Account (IRA) DRAFT 3/6/2007 36 Traditional IRA • Jill’s income level is low enough (see IRA publication 590 for limits) to put money away pretax into a traditional IRA • IRAs like 401Ks may have – Her salary for tax purposes is reduced by $1800 to $28,200 so she pays less taxes now – In 30 years, at 8% return, Jill has $18,113 which will be taxed when she takes a distribution DRAFT 3/6/2007 37 Roth IRA • Jill’s income level is low enough to put money into a Roth IRA (see IRS publication 590 for limits) – Her salary is not reduced so she has no tax savings now – In 30 years, at 8% return, Jill has $18,113 which will be NOT be taxed when she takes a distribution DRAFT 3/6/2007 38 401K • Jill puts 6% ($1800) in a 401K. Her company matches up to 50 cents for every dollar the employee contributes up to 6%. – – – Her salary for tax purposes is reduced by $1800 to $28,200 so she pays less taxes now Her company matches 3% of $900 so the total contribution is $2700 In 30 years, she will have $27,169 which will be taxed when she takes it out DRAFT 3/6/2007 39 401K, IRA or Roth IRA for Jill? • If a company matches, 401K is best up to the maximum of the match • If your tax rate is low now and higher when you retire or you want more flexibility on your distribution, the Roth IRA is the next best DRAFT 3/6/2007 40 Risks with 401K • 18% to 25% of employees don’t participate or contribute • About half of those under 25 contribute • Participants don’t know how to allocate assets (100% company stock is a risk) • When people leave company they cash out their 401Ks instead of rolling it over DRAFT 3/6/2007 41 401K Checklist • • • • Max out employer contribution Monitor asset allocation Ask about fees Always roll over when leaving a company DRAFT 3/6/2007 42 IRA • You can contribute up to what you earn for the year • Roth IRAs are best if your tax rate is low • When you leave a company, make sure that you roll over your savings to a IRA – keep it separate DRAFT 3/6/2007 43 Issues in retirement planning • It’s up to you and not your employer – save in a tax-advantaged way • How much should you save? Lots of opinions but 10% to 15% a year will be a good safety net • Don’t cash out retirement savings – it costs you a lot • Don’t borrow on your 401k—it costs you too DRAFT 3/6/2007 44 Who is eligible Maximum you can contribute 401K Determined by employer. Roth IRA Anyone who had income from working and his or her nonworking spouse. $15,500 (2008 with cost of living after that) or maximum set by employer. $5000 catch-up contribution for those 50 and over. There are income limits. $5000 (2008) each with $1000 catch-up contributions for those over 50. Traditional IRA Anyone up with age 70 ½ with income from working and his or her nonworking spouse. There are no income limits. $5000 (2008) each with $1000 catch-up contributions for those over 50. Your employer may contribute a match which makes this attractive. Tax status of contributions Contributions are pretax. Contributions must be after-tax. Tax status of earnings Earnings are tax deferred. You pay Earnings are tax free. ordinary income tax when you take the money out therefore missing out on lower capital gains tax. Earnings are tax deferred. You pay ordinary income tax when you take the money out therefore missing out on lower capital gains tax. Withdrawals Withdrawals made before age 59 ½ will be subject to a penalty of 10% in addition to tax. Withdrawals made before age 59 ½ will be subject to a penalty of 10% in addition to tax. Contributions may be withdrawn without penalty. Earnings can be withdrawn without penalty for some expenses. Mandatory age for withdrawals 70 1/2 http://www.irs.gov/publications/p590/a r01.html#d0e124 for the latest limits. None 45 Contributions may be pretax up to certain income limits. 70 1/2 Unit 3: Investments DRAFT 3/6/2007 46 Understanding Returns DRAFT 3/6/2007 47 A real life example • You will get your paycheck next week but you need $100 now. You arrange for a payday loan paying a fee of $15 for the use of $100. The payday loan company will collect the $100 electronically from your bank account when your pay check is deposited next week. What is the rate charged? DRAFT 3/6/2007 48 Income investments • Invest only in instruments you understand • Most investors start off with income investments such as certificates of deposit or bonds 49 Certificate of Deposits • Invest a fixed amount of money (principal) in a CD. Your principal is guaranteed plus a fixed amount of interest: – Receive interest monthly, quarterly or at maturity. – You will incur penalty fees for withdrawing your money early before the term expires (before it reaches the maturity date). • CDs can be purchased through banks, credit unions or brokerages. CD considerations are: – Time period (maturity date) – Interest yield includes the effect of compounding interest rate and is usually higher than the interest rate of statement savings accounts. – Interest payments may be withdrawn as they are paid by the bank – CDs are insured by the FDIC or NCUA up to $100,000 ($250,000 on retirement accounts) 50 Bond Primer • Similar to CDs in that interest (yield) is paid usually semiannually • Has a maturity, however may be redeemed before maturity. • May be sold before maturity. DRAFT 3/6/2007 51 Primer on bonds 52 Capital gain or loss on bonds 53 Stocks • Annual Stock Price Changes from 1900 to 2006 (Percent change year to year in S&P 500) • 45% 25% 5% 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 -15% -35% -55% DRAFT 3/6/2007 54 1990 2000 • When you own a share of common stock, you own a share of the company. Owning stock is also referred to as owning equity or having a shareholder stake since you are a shareholder in the company. Stocks are historically much more volatile than bonds in that their prices can go up and down much more. Other investments • • • Real Estate - can be broken down into residential (places where people live) and commercial (office buildings, shopping centers, hotels, warehouses, manufacturing facilities, and such). Estimates of worldwide value of commercial real estate is $14 trillion with the US having about $4.7 trillion. International -The 51 stock exchanges in the World Federation of Exchanges accounted for companies with $61 trillion in market value at the end of 2007. Over the past ten years, US exchanges and those of developed countries in Europe and the rest of the world accounted for less growth than markets in emerging economies such as China, India, and Latin America. Commodities - Commodities are raw materials such as oil, agricultural products such as wheat, cocoa or pork bellies, metals such as silver, gold, or copper. Commodities also include currencies, Treasury securities, and stock indexes. Speculators typically buy and sell commodities with options and futures contracts on an exchange. DRAFT 3/6/2007 55 Investment Risk DRAFT 3/6/2007 56 Major asset classes: Risk & Return Index Funds (2007) Average Return % 42 Risk % 18 25 10 International stocks of developed countries 23 9 Real estate 22 17 Small cap stock - Small US companies $300 M to $2 B Mid cap stock - companies $1.5B to $5 B 15 12 16 10 S&P 500 - Largest US stocks 13 8 4 3 Emerging markets are international stocks of developing countries European large stocks Bonds DRAFT 3/6/2007 57 Return versus Risk If you receive an offer of a guaranteed high return, is that possible? Only if they guarantee a high loss as well. There are no guarantees in any investment. All investments go up and down. Higher return means higher risk. DRAFT 3/6/2007 58 Given the same return, the investment with less risk is better DRAFT 3/6/2007 59 The Northwest is the best. DRAFT 3/6/2007 60 Combined – Risk Return DRAFT 3/6/2007 61 Year-to-year stock returns Annual Stock Price Changes from 1900 to 2006 (Percent change year to year in S&P 500) 45% 25% 5% 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 -15% -35% -55% DRAFT 3/6/2007 62 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Risk gets lower with time Average Previous Five Years S&P 500 Gains 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 -5% -10% -15% DRAFT 3/6/2007 63 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Lowest risk over ten years Average Previous Ten Years S&P 500 Gains 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1900 -2% 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 -4% DRAFT 3/6/2007 64 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Summary • All investments have risk • Buy and hold market index funds (doesn’t work for individual stocks) • Have an emergency fund (3 to 6 months) to tide you over • Have other sources of income so you don’t have to cash out during down markets DRAFT 3/6/2007 65 Asset Allocation DRAFT 3/6/2007 66 All eggs in one basket? • 34.6 percent of families had stock in only one company • 59.5 percent had stock in three or fewer companies • 9.5 percent had stock in fifteen or more companies Source: 2004 Consumer DRAFTFinance 3/6/2007 Survey 67 Why asset allocate? • It has to do with return and risk DRAFT 3/6/2007 68 Can you predict the best return? DRAFT 3/6/2007 69 Does the risk double with two investments? The key is having two investments which aren’t correlated. DRAFT 3/6/2007 70 Adding a riskier investment to your portfolio decreases overall risk. DRAFT 3/6/2007 71 If you allocate the right amount you reduce risk and increase return! DRAFT 3/6/2007 72 Pension Fund Asset Allocation DRAFT 3/6/2007 73 “Millionaires” Portfolio DRAFT 3/6/2007 74 David Swensen suggests a portfolio 75 Summary • Don’t put all your eggs in one basket. • Rebalance every year to keep your portfolio on track. DRAFT 3/6/2007 76 Funds Unit 5: Selecting funds DRAFT 3/6/2007 77 Types of funds • Mutual funds • Closed-end funds • Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) Mutual fund industry Closed-end funds ETFs Evaluating funds Objective Relates to your asset allocation goals Check the portfolio to be sure Fees The lower the better – check against index funds Performance How does it do against the index? How does it do against other funds? Risk Is it lower risk than other funds? Management If you are choosing an actively-managed fund – how experienced is the manager? www.morningstar.com or www.marketwatch.com for Lipper 9/12/07 82 www.morningstar.com 9/12/07 83 9/12/07 84 9/12/07 85 9/12/07 86 9/12/07 87 9/12/07 88 9/12/07 89 9/12/07 90 9/12/07 91 9/12/07 92 9/12/07 93 9/12/07 94 9/12/07 95 Fund Fees True or False? • • • • All fund fees are charged when you buy. All fund fees have the same effect. A no-load fund has no fees. All funds should have the same level of fees and expense ratios. • Expense ratios are such a small part of your investment you shouldn’t worry about them. 96 Index Funds • Index funds are funds that represent certain categories of assets • There are index funds for large, medium and small stocks, international stock, bonds, industries, real estate, commodities, and more. • They are not actively managed. Their investments don’t change. DRAFT 3/6/2007 97 Beating the indices -- negatively Source: Statement of John C. Bogle to the United States Senate Governmental Affairs Subcommittee, November 3, 2003 9/12/07 98 How fees (negatively) impact your return Source: Statement of John C. Bogle to the United States Senate Governmental Affairs Subcommittee, November 3, 2003 9/12/07 99 Percent of actively-managed funds that beat their index 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1995 DRAFT 3/6/2007 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 100 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Evaluate your fund performance/fees against index funds performance/fees Mutual Fund Category Emerging markets are international stocks of developing countries European large stocks International stocks of developed countries Real estate Small cap stock - Small US companies $300 M to $2 B Mid cap stock - Medium-sized US companies $1.5B to $5 B S&P 500 - Largest US stocks Bonds 9/12/07 Index Fund All Funds Expense Expense Ratio Ratio % % 0.77 0.6 0.35 0.35 1.77 1.64 1.65 1.46 0.2 1.41 0.2 0.09 1.39 1.25 0.2 1.05 101 Unit 6: When to buy and sell 9/12/07 102 Bond/CD Laddering Bond laddering is buying income investments over many periods rather than just at one time. The advantages of a bond ladder (or CD ladder) are: • You will have a mixed yield portfolio of bonds coming due in the short and long term, which will give you a better current bond yield. • If interest rates go up, you will have a bond maturing shortly that you can reinvest at a higher interest rate for another five year term. • If interest rates drop, only a small portion of your portfolio (the one-year bond maturing) would be reinvested at the lower rate. • You can match your cash needs with how long you make the bond ladder by deciding the type of bond for the ladder. Be careful how you build your bond ladder. Here are some suggestions to keep in mind: • The longer the maturity, the higher your yield but the risk will be greater. • For your bond ladder, the more rungs on your ladder, the more diversified your investment portfolio will be. DRAFT 3/6/2007 103 Bond Ladder Bond laddering gives you a mix of interest rates 18.00 16.00 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 1981 1982 1987 6.64% 1991 7.7% 1992 6.24% 104 1996 5.36% 1997 6.33% 2000 6.58% 2001 2002 4.34% 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1995 7.76% 1990 8.12% 1986 8.68% 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1985 12.77% 1980 10.74% DRAFT 3/6/2007 1984 1983 1982 1981 0.00 1980 5-year Treasury Bond 14.00 2005 3.71% 2006 2007 4.75% The effect – not always better Lump sum 100000 1980 10.7% 1981 12.8% 1982 14.7% 1983 10.0% 1984 11.4% 1985 10.9% At maturity DRAFT 3/6/2007 153700 105 Ladder 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 20000 190490 Rebalancing DRAFT 3/6/2007 106 Do we buy at the right time? DRAFT 3/6/2007 107 Rebalancing • Adjusting portfolio based on asset allocation goals DRAFT 3/6/2007 108 No rebalancing Year 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 DRAFT 3/6/2007 Bond 40% 40% 39% 35% 32% 27% 24% 21% 24% 28% 36% 31% 30% 29% 27% 109 Stock 60% 60% 61% 65% 68% 73% 76% 79% 76% 72% 64% 69% 70% 71% 73% Rebalancing Final Value - No Action Portfolio $376,353 Final Value Rebalance Portfolio - $381,608 35% 30% No action Rebalanced 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 -5% -10% -15% -20% DRAFT 3/6/2007 110 Advice from the pros David Swensen who manages the Yale University endowment, and who is considered one of the best investment managers, has sobering advice to give to individual investors: • Individuals shouldn’t pick stocks themselves. The markets are competitive and they don’t have the information to compete nor the clout to negotiate. • Beware of actively-managed mutual funds. They allow popular funds to grow too big so they can’t beat the market. They also tend to promote the wrong fund at the wrong time. The vast majority of actively-managed funds underperform the market. • Mutual fund monitoring companies don’t help you either. They downgrade funds after the damage has been done. • Individuals are best served by index funds with the lowest fees. • Have a diversified portfolio and rebalance. DRAFT 3/6/2007 111 Investor Fraud Unit 6: Protect your wealth Choosing a financial advisor • • • • Comparison shop - talk to people at several firms. Meet with them face to face at their offices. Make a list of questions to ask. Get a copy of their Form ADV. Qualifications - What is the advisor’s education? What certification does he or she have? Does it relate to financial knowledge? Ask about their clients. How many clients do they have? How long do clients stay with them? What are the total assets they are advising on? What is the average portfolio of their clients? Make sure you fit the profile. Style: Ask if the advisor or an assistant will handle your portfolio. Ask for at least three references. Do you feel comfortable with the advisor? Investing is a very personal activity. Does the advisor’s investing style match yours? You need to feel that the advisor is working in your best interest. Disclosure - Make sure that you have complete disclosure of any fees and the commission schedule. Ask if there is any potential conflict of interest. Get this all in writing. 113 Investment Fraud • Investment fraud criminals use a wide array of influence tactics. • Research done by the National Association of Securities Dealers on transcripts from phone calls of these con artists found 1,100 separate uses of the influence tactics in 128 transcripts. • First the con artist identifies victims and then cases out the potential victim. They establish that the victim has money. Then they create the “ether” or the state where the victim is susceptible to the fraud. Commonly Used Influence Tactics • Phantom Fixation – The con puts something that is completely unavailable before the victim. Often it appeals to health issues, wealth, popularity or avoiding death. The amount of money that they claim you can earn is astronomic. For example, earn $30,000 a month. • Commitment – “You can vote to stop drilling, but if you do, all the rest of what you have invested will be lost.” • Authority – “I have been in the oil business for over 30 years and I have seen it all.” • Social Proof – Everyone is getting in on the offer • Scarcity including product scarcity (only three left) and time scarcity (offer good only today) Other influence tactics • Comparison – Inflated “regular” price • Profiling – Probe for information and then customizes pitch • Friendship – Changes the relationship from con to victim to friend to friend • Reciprocity – Does favor so you will return favor (gifts, free lunch, etc.- with gift response rate goes from 17% to 36%) • Landscaping – changes social interaction so it lead to where the con wants to go by setting the agenda, limiting choices or controlling information. www.dfi.wa.gov • If it sound too good to be true, it is. • Don’t invest in anything you don’t understand. • Check out your investment advisor and your investments at www.dfi.wa.gov • Report any suspicious activity right away. Activity • Similar to a will that outlines your wishes for your children, what are the most important financial lessons you want to pass onto your children? When would you start teaching them these concepts? DRAFT 3/6/2007 118